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Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

Mariners “Rebuffed” Red Sox’ Interest In Young Starting Pitchers

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The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.

The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.

However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.

“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”

On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.

The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.

To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”

It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.

Red Sox Sign Roberto Pérez To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed catcher Roberto Pérez, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo adds that Perez will get a $1.4MM base salary if added to the roster.

Pérez, 35 next week, has been one of the better defensive catchers in the majors during his career but has hardly played recently due to the pandemic and significant injury issues. He has only played 102 games over the past four seasons and only 26 over the past two. He joined the Pirates for 2022 but only got into 21 contests before a significant hamstring strain required season-ending surgery. This year, he played five games for the Giants before shoulder surgery ended his campaign.

But as mentioned, he has a very strong reputation for his glovework in his career. He has racked up 80 Defensive Runs Saved since making his debut in 2014. The only catcher with more in that timeframe is Austin Hedges and his 86 DRS, though Hedges did so in more than 1,000 extra innings compared to Pérez. Pérez is also considered a strong framer by each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast.

His offense hasn’t been as impressive. He did hit 24 home runs in 2019, but that was the “juiced ball” season and he’s never hit more than eight in any other season of his career. Overall, he’s hit .207/.298/.358, which translates to a wRC+ of 77.

The Sox currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster in Connor Wong and Reese McGuire. Last month, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said that the club feels good with its catching situation, but Wong and McGuire are 27 and 28 years old, respectively. Pérez will come into Spring Training and serve as a respected veteran presence, while giving the club a bit of extra depth in a non-roster capacity.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

Red Sox Sign Cooper Criswell To Major League Contract

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The Red Sox announced agreement with right-hander Cooper Criswell on a major league contract. He’ll remain in the AL East after being non-tendered by the Rays last month. The move brings the Sox’s 40-man roster count to 39. Criswell, a Frontline client, is reportedly guaranteed $1MM.

Criswell occupied a depth role for Tampa Bay in 2023. He made 10 appearances as a long reliever, tossing 33 innings with a 5.73 ERA. Criswell didn’t miss many bats at the highest level, striking out a below-average 17.9% of opponents. He generated swinging strikes on only 7.7% of his offerings while averaging 88.4 MPH on his sinker.

The 27-year-old had a better season in Triple-A. Working mostly out of the rotation, he pitched to a 3.93 ERA in 84 2/3 frames. Criswell’s 21.6% strikeout rate wasn’t much worse than average and he kept the ball on the ground for over half the batted balls he allowed.

While it’s not overpowering stuff, the North Carolina product has plus control. He has done an excellent job avoiding free passes throughout his minor league career and walked only 7.3% of batters faced at the MLB level last season. Criswell has a four-pitch arsenal that allows him to work as a depth starter or long reliever.

Since he has a minor league option remaining, the Sox can freely move Criswell between Fenway Park and Triple-A Worcester for another year. They go a little above the league minimum salary and commit a 40-man roster spot to a player they clearly identified as a depth target. Criswell has yet to reach one year of MLB service, so the Red Sox could control him well into the future if he pitches well enough to hold that 40-man spot.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Red Sox and Criswell had agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal.

Red Sox, Blue Jays To Meet With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in the process of meeting with interested MLB clubs and is slated to meet with both the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the coming days, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Yamamoto met with the Yankees yesterday and the Giants on Sunday. Mets owner Steve Cohen reportedly flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto before his current slate of team visits in North America. That’s a total of five known teams meeting with Yamamoto, and Feinsand suggests another two or three teams could also hold meetings.

The Blue Jays, after missing out on Shohei Ohtani, figure to have both the motivation and money to pursue a significant upgrade (or upgrades) to other areas of the roster. Yamamoto obviously wouldn’t impact the 2024 lineup like signing Ohtani would have, but installing him into a rotation that also features Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt would make for a formidable top four. If Alek Manoah can regain his 2022 form or if Yusei Kikuchi can continue his 2023 performance levels, a Toronto rotation including Yamamoto could rank as one of the best in the game and have solid depth beyond the top quintet.

Over in Boston, the need is arguably more acute. The Red Sox’ rotation is rife with question marks, perhaps none bigger than what the team can expect from oft-injured top starter Chris Sale. The 34-year-old lefty was serviceable in 2023 when healthy, but he was again limited by injury. Last year’s 120 2/3 innings were Sale’s most since 2019. He posted a 4.30 ERA in that time, albeit with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Beyond Sale, Boston’s rotation ranges from inexperienced to inconsistent; Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford are all in the mix for innings.

Both teams can likely fit a massive commitment to Yamamoto onto the long-term books without significant issue. Doing so for the Jays would raise further questions about the team’s ability and/or desire to extend cornerstones Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but those questions will exist in some regard anyway, as both are now two years from free agency and still going year-to-year in arbitration. Toronto will see Kikuchi and reliever Yimi Garcia come off the books in 2025. Bassitt, Bichette, Guerrero and Chad Green are all off the books come 2026. Roster Resource pegs the Blue Jays’ payroll commitments over the next three years at approximately $203MM, $116MM and $65MM. Berrios is their only player signed beyond 2026.

For the Red Sox, the long-term outlook is similarly open for a sizable free-agent deal. Sale’s $145MM contract expires after the upcoming 2024 season. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are all signed through at least 2027. However, as it stands, the Sox only have about $76MM on the books in ’25 and similar or declining totals thereafter. That payroll outlook, combined with the considerable uncertainty that permeates the starting staff, is why the Sox are active in top tiers of the rotation market and have been prominently linked to the likes of Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery.

Yamamoto, 25, is among the most sought-after players to ever make the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. He’s won three straight MVP Awards and Sawamura Awards (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) and just wrapped up a season that saw him post a 1.21 ERA in 164 innings. Yamamoto has a career 1.72 ERA in seven NPB seasons, including sub-2.00 marks in four of his past five campaigns. MLB scouts and evaluators generally view him as a legitimate No. 1-2 starter in a big league rotation. A contract north of $200MM has long seemed plausible, but recent speculation about a deal closer to $300MM has begun to arise.

Because Yamamoto has under nine years of NPB service, he’s only available to MLB clubs via the MLB/NPB posting system. Any team that signs Yamamoto will not only owe him the value of the contract agreed upon by the two parties, but also a release fee to the Orix Buffaloes — Yamamoto’s now-former team. That fee is equivalent to 20% of the contract’ first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any dollars paid to Yamamoto thereafter.

Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill

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The Red Sox brought in outfield help on Friday night, announcing the acquisition of outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals. Right-handers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos are going back to St. Louis.

O’Neill, 29 in June, has had a mercurial career but showed his tremendous ceiling as recently as 2021. He played 138 games that season, hitting 34 home runs. He struck out at a high 31.3% clip but hit .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He also received strong grades for his outfield defense and stole 15 bases. That all-around production led to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, whereas Baseball Reference had him at 6.1 WAR.

But the results since then have been less impressive, with injuries seeming to drag him down. In the past two seasons, O’Neill has hit the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, a left hamstring strain, a lower back strain and a right foot sprain. He’s been able to get into just 168 games over those two campaigns, hitting 23 home runs and producing a batting line of .229/.310/.397. That amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just a bit below league average.

It appeared that he had fallen out of favor in St. Louis over that time. In early 2023, he and manager Oli Marmol got in a bit of a spat, where the skipper publicly admonished O’Neill for a perceived lack of hustle. Though the outfielder pushed back on the idea that he wasn’t giving full effort and also seemed displeased with Marmol making the disagreement public.

As the Cardinals fell out of contention during the most recent season, it seemed as though O’Neill could have been traded at the deadline a few months ago, since he’s slated for free agency after 2024. But no deal materialized and he stuck with the club into the current offseason. In recent weeks, trade rumors surfaced and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak did little to quell them. “In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings earlier this week. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

But for the Red Sox, O’Neill makes plenty of sense. After they traded Alex Verdugo earlier this week, their outfield projects to have lefties Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. The club also has righties Ceddanne Rafaela and Rob Refsnyder, but the former has just 28 games of experience while the latter is a platoon specialist. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently spoke about how the club would like to add a right-handed hitter capable of playing center field, but that it wouldn’t be a need.

O’Neill does indeed hit from the right side and has played some center field, having logged 303 2/3 innings there over 40 games in his career. The defensive reviews are mixed but it’s hard to glean much in such a small sample.

He will likely not be Plan A in center anyhow. Per a report from Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings of The Athletic this week, the club considers Rafaela a viable center field option. Even if he were to struggle in his first extended stretch of play in the big leagues, Duran has spent plenty of time up the middle and Abreu has seen action there as well. But all told, he balances the mix and will be a low-cost upside play for the Sox.

As mentioned, O’Neill is slated for free agency after 2024. Per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, he’s projected for a salary of just $5.5MM next year before reaching the open market. If he gets back to his 2021 upside, he would be a bargain and could help the club return to contention or perhaps turn into a midseason trade chip if the Sox are out of the race. If he continues to struggle, he can yield playing time to Duran, Rafaela or Abreu, depending on who is performing well.

The Cardinals came into this offseason with a notable position player surplus. Mozeliak outlined the outfield situation, which also includes players like Alec Burleson and Richie Palacios. But they also have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt on the infield corners. Up the middle, they have Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan as potential options.

It was thought that they would use this surplus to add their rotation, where they were looking to add three arms. But they rather quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to bolster their starting group. That led to recent speculation that an eventual position player trade would return bullpen help or prospects.

Robertson, 25, was drafted by the Dodgers and added to that club’s 40-man roster earlier this year, but he was flipped to Boston as part of the Enrique Hernández trade from a few months ago. He has 22 1/3 innings of MLB experience between the two clubs with an earned run average of 6.04, though with more encouraging peripherals. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 8.5% and getting grounders at a 47.1% clip. His .397 batting average on balls in play and 57.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average, leading to a 3.88 FIP and 3.76 SIERA.

He was even better in the minors, having tossed 42 2/3 Triple-A innings between the two clubs with a 3.16 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has a couple of options, so the Cards don’t need to commit an active roster spot to him right away, but he’s already had some MLB experience and could potentially be part of their club in the coming season.

Santos, 23, has mostly been a starter in the minors but hasn’t ever really been a top prospect, though he has received plaudits for his command. He tossed 145 innings in 2022, split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.97 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 5.6% walk rate was quite strong. He didn’t pitch in 2023 because of injury. He’ll provide the Cards with a bit of non-roster depth for their starting staff.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported O’Neill was being traded to Boston. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that St. Louis would receive two minor leaguers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Robertson and Santos were going to the Cardinals.

Red Sox Interested In Whit Merrifield

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The Red Sox have needs at second base and in the outfield and could perhaps address both of those areas with one player. Per a report from Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, the club has “considered” Whit Merrifield and contacted his representatives, though the report characterizes the talks as preliminary with nothing appearing to be imminent.

Merrifield, 35 in January, has spent the past three seasons with offense a bit below league average but providing speed and defensive versatility. Splitting that stretch between the Royals and Blue Jays, the right-handed hitter took 1,862 trips to the plate in 446 games. He hit just 32 home runs in that time and walked at a mere 6.1% clip but also limited his strikeouts to a 15.5% rate. His .268/.311/.385 batting line in that time translates to a wRC+ of 90, or 10% below league average.

But he also stole 82 bases and split his time between second base and the outfield. His work at the keystone was strongly reviewed, as he produced 5 Defensive Runs Saved, 13 Outs Above Average and a grade of 6.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His marks in the outfield were more mixed, but teams love versatility and the ability to passably move around the diamond will certainly be attractive.

The fit with the Red Sox is quite sensible. Earlier this week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke about the club’s needs, saying that the “ideal” second base acquisition for them would be a right-handed hitter who plays plus defense, though he suggested a trade would be more likely than a free agent signing.

Merrifield isn’t the only strong defender who hits from the right side that’s available. Amed Rosario has mostly played shortstop in his career but received decent grades at the keystone with the Dodgers in the second half of 2023. The trade market could perhaps have guys like Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim, though there hasn’t been much to suggest a trade of either is likely. Jonathan India makes some sense as a trade candidate but the Reds have downplayed his availability and he’s generally considered a poor defender. Jorge Polanco is a switch-hitter but his offense is better than his defense and his bat is better from the left side. Brandon Drury could be available if the Angels are stepping back in 2024 but it doesn’t appear as though they will. Christopher Morel could be a good fit but he still has five years of control remaining and the Cubs seem to be trying to use him to pull off a big trade for someone like Pete Alonso or Tyler Glasnow.

All that is to say that the Sox have plenty of options, but Merrifield is one that makes sense. In addition to his right-handed bat and strong second base defense, his ability to move to the outfield could be enticing to them. The Boston outfield mix, even after trading lefty Alex Verdugo, projects to have lefties Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida. The latter will possibly see significant time as designated hitter, but not everyday. Breslow also suggested this week that he would like a right-handed hitter who could play center field but also said that’s not a need. Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and the report linked in the first paragraph suggests the team feels he could viably handle center field.

Merrifield isn’t really someone to be relied on for center. He has just 120 innings there over the past three years and none in 2023. But perhaps the Sox could feel comfortable with a Rafaela up the middle, with Duran playing both left field and some center, as Abreu, Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder chip in at the corners as well. That’s a group fairly light on experience, however, and could perhaps do with a veteran addition. If Merrifield were to take the second base job, it’s possible he’s eventually pushed off by middle infield prospects Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer, but his ability to play the outfield could still allow him to be useful to the club.

MLBTR predicted Merrifield for a two-year, $18MM deal this winter, which would easily fit onto Boston’s payroll at present. Roster Resource lists their 2024 outlay as $164MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $176MM. It’s possible the club doesn’t want to go over the $237MM base threshold for the CBT after a last place finish in the East and with a new decision maker just hired, but that could still leave something like $60MM of wiggle room if they are willing to get near the line.

The club’s priority is pitching, however, which could be why the talks with Merrifield have only been preliminary thus far. If they decide to make a splashy move or two in upgrading their staff, they might be left with little left for pursuing upgrades at second base and the outfield. But Merrifield likely won’t require a ridiculous contract so it’s possible they circle back to him later in the winter after they make their decisions on the pitching front. Merrifield was also connected to the White Sox back in October but that club has since acquire Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake for their middle infield.

Red Sox Rumors: Second Base, Rotation, Turner, Outfield

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The Red Sox have a clear need at second base this winter, and as recently noted, newly installed chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated to reporters that he feels a trade is likelier than a free-agent signing. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic adds some more context from Breslow’s media session, noting that he called the “ideal” acquisition a right-handed bat and plus defender.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

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