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2005 Draft Throwdown

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While dreams are coming true for hundreds of high school and college players this week, let's compare the paths of some 2005 first round draft picks. Nothing is more interesting than seeing how teams did choosing players at the same position. In a draft, it is the closest teams come to the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Meanwhile, those lists haunt fans' memories for years to come.

  • Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) vs. Ryan Braun (Brewers): This battle between Zimmerman, picked fourth, and Braun, picked fifth, was to be a test of hot corner prowess. But while Zimmerman has excelled at the position, winning a Gold Glove in 2009 and grading well under more advanced defensive metrics, Braun settled in left field after proving to be a disastrous fielder at third base. So far, Braun has a .931 to .836 edge in OPS, but with Zimmerman putting up an .888 in 2009 and at .986 so far in 2010, that gap may well have disappeared. Moving forward, the edge goes to Zimmerman, a terrific hitter, though a notch below Braun, but a far more valuable defensive player. Both teams won here, though.
  • Cameron Maybin (Tigers) vs. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): These high school center fielders went back-to-back, with Maybin going tenth and McCutchen going 11th. The early returns suggest that the Tigers made a poor choice here, though they ultimately packaged Maybin in a deal for Miguel Cabrera, so they're not exactly complaining. McCutchen has hit since he arrived in Pittsburgh last season, and a 23-year-old with an .847 OPS in his first 733 major league plate appearances stands an awfully good chance of being an elite player for years to come. Maybin is still immensely talented, and could turn into a star- but McCutchen already is one. Pirates win- how often do you get to read that?
  • Craig Hansen (Red Sox) vs. Joey Devine (Braves): This throwdown is a lesson in the perils of college pitchers. They seem like sure things, compared to high schoolers, and from the start, the Red Sox and Braves thought they had their ninth-innings mapped out for years to come. Hansen, drafted 26th out of St. John's, has yet to find command at the major league level, with 63 walks against 70 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. The right-hander was one of the moving parts in the three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles. Hansen's troubles were baffling, until the discovery of a degenerative nerve condition that has his career in doubt. Devine, chosen 27th, got traded to Oakland for Mark Kotsay, so Atlanta didn't benefit much from choosing him, either. The Athletics got a fantastic 2008 out of Devine- a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings with 49 strikeouts. Tommy John surgery kept him out for 2009, but he is currently on track to return to Oakland by the end of June. Winner here? Clearly, the Athletics.

Draft Notes: Phillies, Brentz, Rays, Harper, Whitson

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The reactions and updates keep trickling in, as last year's first overall pick prepares to make his much-anticipated major league debut…

  • The Cubs selected Bryan Harper, Bryce's older brother, in the 26th round, writes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
  • Phillies scouting director Marti Wolever tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the team is "very close" to signing first rounder Jesse Biddle (Twitter link).
  • Red Sox supplementary rounder Byrce Brentz will sign for slot money, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. That should be an $891K bonus for Brentz, who was close to a deal just hours after the draft.
  • Rays second round pick Jacob Thompson tells Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that he's ready to sign. The right-hander says he doesn't want to play "hardball" with the Rays (figuratively speaking, that is).
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he hopes to sign Bryce Harper and get his pro career started before the mid-August deadline for signing picks (Twitter link).
  • The Nationals plan to have Harper play outfield, not catcher, according to Ben Goessling of MASN.com.
  • Harper told the media that he intends on working out, having fun and fishing this summer, according to Goessling. In other words, don't expect the phenom to sign right away.
  • The Giants took Brett Bochy (manager Bruce's son) with their 20th round pick, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (via Twitter).
  • Not to be outdone, the Rockies drafted manager Jim Tracy's son, Mark, in the 22nd round, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (Twitter link).
  • The White Sox selected Ozney Guillen in the 22nd round, but Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times says Guillen won't likely sign (Twitter link).
  • And before those three teams made their selections, the Tigers picked Patrick Leyland in the eighth round, according to Steve Kornacki of MLive.com.
  • Houston's top three picks all told Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle that they expect to sign. Delino DeShields Jr., Mike Foltynewicz and Michael Kvasnicka could all be in the Astros' system before long.
  • Padres executive Paul DePodesta explains that the club selected high school righty Karsten Whitson with its first round pick because of his upside, even though the pitcher's development could take years.
  • Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer explained to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that the Yankees trust their scouts, even if it means surprising people with picks like Cito Culver.
  • The Tigers announced that director of player development Glenn Ezell stepped down. The timing is odd, to say the least.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adrian Beltre

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Adrian Beltre signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox in January, turning down three-year, $24MM offers from the Phillies and Athletics.  The Scott Boras client gambled that he'd bounce back in 2010 and exceed a two-year, $14MM deal after the season.  So far, it appears that Beltre was smart to bet on his own talent.

Beltre was expected to provide strong defense and a useful bat, perhaps a .330 OBP with 25 home runs.  Instead he's got a .330/.362/.509 line in 232 plate appearances.  He's tied for ninth in the AL with 40 RBIs; reaching 100 for the second time in his career won't hurt his earning potential.

Beltre's contract includes a 2011 player option worth $5MM, which will increase to $10MM with 640 plate appearances this year.  He's currently on pace for 637, so it'll be tight.  The $10MM option was never terribly relevant, though – if Beltre played enough to reach 640 PAs, he'd probably have a season worthy of more than a one-year, $10MM commitment.  Beltre is highly likely to decline his player option whether it's $5MM or $10MM.

I would not be surprised to see Beltre seek a four-year deal in the $50MM range at the outset of the offseason.  He'll be competing mainly with Jorge Cantu, if Aramis Ramirez's rough start compels him to exercise a $14.6MM player option.  Back in March, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein noted the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves a good fit.  At the least we'll see an arbitration offer, as the third baseman currently profiles as a Type B free agent.

Keith Law’s First-Day Draft Reactions

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ESPN's Keith Law found yesterday's first round insane.  To fully understand why you should join ESPN Insider and read his piece, which I heartily recommend.  A few highlights:

  • Law found it interesting that the Brewers snagged high school righty Dylan Covey at #14, because they are a team in need of more immediate rotation help.  GM Doug Melvin explained to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that scouting director Bruce Seid deserves credit for not taking the easy path in the form of a college hurler.  On yesterday's conference call, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith learned that Covey feels there's a "really good chance" he'll sign rather than attend the University of San Diego.
  • Law felt that the Reds took the best player available at #12 in college catcher Yasmani Grandal, and having strong catching depth in the system will not be a bad thing.
  • The Cardinals drew praise for landing college third baseman Zack Cox, who surprisingly fell to #25.
  • The Red Sox and Angels' many first-round picks were lauded by Law.  College righty Anthony Ranaudo was an intriguing choice by the Red Sox.  The Boras client was considered one of the draft's top talents before suffering a stress reaction in his forearm.  WEEI's Alex Speier has more on Boston's three picks.
  • The biggest surprise of the draft had to be the Cubs taking college righty Hayden Simpson at #16, who was not considered a first rounder by most draft gurus.  Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken told Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune he had it confirmed that other clubs would've taken Simpson before the Cubs picked again at #65.  The Yankees' selection of high school shortstop Cito Culver at #32 was another surprise.
  • The Dodgers took a very tough sign in high school pitcher Zach Lee, who has a commitment to play football at LSU.  Dodgers assistant GM Logan White insisted to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times that the team did not purposely take an unsignable player to save money.

Red Sox Near Agreements With Vitek, Brentz

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Red Sox first rounder Kolbrin Vitek said tonight that he has a "verbal agreement" in place with the Red Sox. Vitek, a 21-year-old college infielder, said on a conference call that he expects to start his pro career soon, since he and the Red Sox have exchanged figures and come to an informal agreement. Alex Speier of WEEI.com hears that Vitek will sign for slot money ($1.36MM in 2009).

GM Theo Epstein said the club is also close to an agreement with supplemental round pick Bryce Brentz. Nothing is official yet, but Epstein says the club could make an announcement or two soon.

"We might have something to announce in the next couple days, pending physicals," Epstein said.

The Red Sox spoke to Vitek, a two-way player in college, about playing third base and that's where he expects to play. Vitek says third base is a  "pretty comfortable" position for him, since he played there his sophomore year.

The Red Sox expect to spend considerably more time negotiating a deal with supplemental rounder Anthony Ranaudo, a Scott Boras client.

Draft Links: Ruffin, Pomeranz, Grandal, Wolters

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The draft is underway, and we've got another round of links.

  • Mayo hears that the Indians will take Drew Pomeranz and the D'Backs will take Barret Loux (Twitter link).
  • Heyman hears that the Nationals will take Harper, the Pirates will take Jameson Taillon and the O's will take Manny Machado (Twitter link).
  • The White Sox could take Grandal if he's available when they select 13th overall, according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter).
  • In what would be a surprising move, the Reds appear ready to take Chance Ruffin 12th overall, according to Law.
  • Law hears that Pomeranz is sliding and that teams are having "uh-oh" moments because they didn't discuss him enough (Twitter links).
  • Padres executive Paul DePodesta explains that the draft has slowed down over the years. That gives teams the chance to breathe a little more easily between selections.
  • An Orioles official told Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that the team will likely pick Manny Machado third overall.
  • It looks like the D'Backs will take a college pitcher with their first round pick, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic hears they aren't likely to take lefty Drew Pomeranz.
  • The Indians have topped the Royals' predraft offer of $2.9MM to Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, reports Frankie Piliere of AOL Fanhouse.  Piliere still believes the Royals will take Grandal at #4, but the original agreement is off.  ESPN's Keith Law, meanwhile, heard that the Royals and Grandal had not even discussed money as of Saturday evening.  Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals prefer Grandal but are "taking a hard look" at Florida Gulf Coast lefty Chris Sale.  Law has the Royals taking Sale, in a recent chat comment. 
  • Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein tweets that high school infielder Tony Wolters is in play for the Angels, Blue Jays, and Braves in the late first round or the first compensation round.  Piliere sees the Braves at #35.
  • Goldstein tweets that high school outfielder Drew Vettleson looks like a potential first-round pick, maybe to the Dodgers at #28 (matching the prediction of Baseball America's Jim Callis).  Law has heard Vettleson as a possibility for the Dodgers, Rays, and Yankees.
  • FanGraphs' David Cameron explains that Bryce Harper doesn't necessarily have more value as a catcher than an outfielder.
  • Cameron's colleague Bryan Smith looks at recent draft picks that were questioned at the time they were made.
  • Alex Speier of WEEI outlines Boston's shift toward drafting for impact players starting in '06.
  • SI's Jon Heyman names the biggest booms and busts in draft history. 

2010 Draft Pick Gains And Losses

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Using Mike Axisa's 2010 draft order, let's take a look at which teams gained and lost picks through free agent compensation during the offseason.

  • Seven clubs added at least one pick without giving any up: the Angels, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, Rays, and Rockies.
  • The Angels lost Chone Figgins and John Lackey, but they added the most and best picks: #18, #29, #37, and #40.  This is a huge year for director of scouting Eddie Bane.  The Blue Jays added three picks: #34, #41, and #80.
  • The Astros, Rangers, and Cardinals each added two picks, with the Astros doing the best by snagging #19 and #33 for Jose Valverde.
  • The Orioles and Mets were the only two teams to lose a pick without adding any; those are #53 and #57 respectively.
  • The Mariners added #43 but gave up #18, while the Tigers added #44 and #48 while giving up #19.
  • The Red Sox came out in pretty good shape despite signing a pair of Type As in John Lackey and Marco Scutaro.  The Sox added #20, #36, #39, and #57 while losing #29 and #80.  Losing a Type A who was offered arbitration brings in two picks, but signing such a player only costs one.
  • The Braves added picks #35 and #53, but surrendered #20.

Originally published 3-29-10.

Draft Links: Pirates, Brewers, Red Sox

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More draft news from around the web..

  • The Pirates will take either shortstop Manny Machado or righthander Jameson Taillon with the second overall pick, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Earlier today, it was reported that the Bucs were looking at Machado, or Taillon but were also considering a "college pitcher".
  • The Brewers' have had countless "what if" moments in the draft in recent years, including almost nabbing Wade Davis in 2004, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
  • Several Red Sox shared their memories of draft day with Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal.
  • A pair of Illinois prospects should go in the early rounds of the draft, writes Mike Helfgot for the Chicago Tribune.  Mike Foltynewicz, a Texas commit ranked amongst the top 50 prospects in this class by Baseball America, will likely be the first.

Olney On Fielder, Lowell, DeJesus

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In today's blog post for ESPN.com (Insider-only link), Buster Olney looks ahead to Stephen Strasburg's big-league debut on Tuesday. Olney suggests that Strasburg will be doing very well if he starts his career as strongly as Mike Leake has. In 11 starts for the Reds this year, the rookie right-hander has posted a 2.22 ERA and doesn't have a single loss to his name. A few other tidbits from Olney:

  • Responding to a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel column in which Michael Hunt argues that the Brewers need to trade Prince Fielder, Olney examines the slugger's market value and finds a few factors working against a possible trade. The Brewers are unlikely to move their marquee player unless they could land a package close to what the Rangers received when they dealt Mark Teixeira in 2007. After seeing the talent Atlanta gave up in that trade, and knowing how expensive it would be to extend Fielder, teams may be reluctant to roll the dice.
  • The first base and designated hitter markets appear flush this summer, meaning it will be even more challenging for the Red Sox to find a suitor for Mike Lowell.
  • David DeJesus has been hot lately, raising his average above .300, and there should be plenty of teams in need of offensive production who will notice.

Cafardo’s Latest: Lowell, Angels, Haren, Suzuki

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a few hot stove notes in his latest column, but before he gets to those, he discusses Ken Griffey Jr.'s career, noting that the Mariner "walked away very quietly, with little fanfare, just as he said he would." Here are the rest of the highlights from Cafardo's piece:

  • It doesn't appear any teams, besides maybe the Rangers, are too interested in Mike Lowell. Cafardo lists the Angels, Mariners and White Sox as potential matches, though a Sox official says Lowell "doesn’t fit for us right now."
  • The Angels, meanwhile, seem committed to giving Mike Napoli playing time at first base for now, diminishing any interest they'd have in Lowell.
  • The Diamondbacks have had internal discussions about trading Dan Haren, but one baseball executive expressed doubt that Arizona will pull the trigger. The exec pointed out that rebuilding from scratch isn't necessary in the NL West, since almost every team could be just a couple moves away from contending.
  • Kurt Suzuki will likely be the Red Sox' top trade target this winter.
  • A scout offers his opinion on the Orioles' young arms like Chris Tillman: "They’re kind of stuck and maybe have even taken a step backward. But sometimes that happens. Every kid has a hump they have to get over once they hit the big leagues." Last night, we discussed the possibility of the O's having a fire sale and turning their roster over to their youngsters for the remainder of the season.
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