Red Sox Rumors

Red Sox Not Planning To Extend A Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

By Jacob Smith | October 29, 2022 at 10:57am CDT

The Red Sox are not planning to extend a qualifying offer to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report comes at what may be the beginning of an offseason of transition in Boston. With Xander Bogaerts’ opt-out clause looming and extension talks with Rafael Devers having yet to yield any results, Martinez could be one of multiple all-stars whose time in Boston may soon come to an end.

Martinez, age 35, is coming off of his fifth season with Boston, during which he played 139 games and slashed .274/.341/.448. Though Martinez rated as a well above average offensive player by wRC+ (119), his 16 2022 home runs are his fewest in a season since 2013. 2022 was also the first season in Martinez’s career that the five-time all-star did not log a single inning at a defensive position, as Alex Cora used him exclusively as a designated hitter. Martinez ought to have no problem finding employment next season, however. He has been one of the most consistent and productive hitters over the last decade, averaging 26 home runs and a .293 average since 2013.

MLBTR ranks Martinez as the best full-time DH available this offseason. He will headline a DH-class that includes other options such as Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz. Full-time DH’s have reduced earning power compared to other free agents due to their limited defense. The market for this player prototype has the potential to appeal any club looking for a discounted injection of offense without shuffling their defensive alignment. Assured production is paramount when a team decides to commit substantial resources to an offense-only player. Out of the three, Martinez is by far the surest bet. The contrast of Carpenter’s herculean summer with the Yankees and his paltry 2019-2021 leaves uncertainty about in his ability to produce going forward. Carpenter does have the ability to play some defense, however, having lined up at all four corner positions in 2022. Cruz looked ageless until last season, when he experienced substantial drops in hard-contact rate and exit velocity in the midst of his worst offensive season ever as a big league regular.

As the market’s best full-time DH, there ought to be plenty of teams looking to add some thump to their lineup that will consider signing Martinez. Logical suitors may theoretically include the Diamondbacks, who are looking for a right-handed bat, per Heyman, and the Marlins, who plan to address their weak offense this offseason. That being said, any team that may be inclined to add a full-time DH figures to have interest in Martinez on a one or two-year deal with an AAV below the qualifying offer worth $19.65 MM.

It is also possible that Martinez winds up back with Boston, despite the fact that the Red Sox are not planning to extend him a qualifying offer. Chaim Bloom’s decision to not tie draft pick compensation to Martinez’s free agency is likely to be rooted in the Sox’ evaluation of what Martinez could be worth in 2023, as opposed to whether or not they he would like to keep him on Boston’s roster. Martinez has been well worth the 5-year, $110MM deal he signed with the Red Sox in the 2017-2018 offseason and has given every indication that he can still be a productive DH. If Martinez does not receive a qualifying offer, it would indicate Bloom’s unwillingness to pay a full-time DH, albeit a productive one, a salary of $19.65 MM. It could also signify Bloom’s desire to provide consistent opportunity for some of Boston’s core of young first baseman/DH types, like Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. They also have Eric Hosmer on the roster, though it’s unclear how committed they are to him. With the Padres paying down the majority of his contract, Boston is only on the hook for the league minimum salary and could cut ties if they found options they liked better.

In a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster on October 6, Martinez expressed gratitude to his teammates and to Boston fans for their support, adding that he’ll “see what happens” in free agency (via Twitter). If he does wind up back with the Red Sox, it will be interesting to see how close Martinez’s new salary will come to the $19.65 MM figure that the Boston appears unlikely to offer him.

Large Gap Remains Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers In Extension Talks

By Anthony Franco | October 27, 2022 at 10:57pm CDT

The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.

Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.

Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.

During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.

In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).

With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.

12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.

This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.

At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.

Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.

At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.

That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.

Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.

While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.

That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.

Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.

Brock Holt Announces Retirement

By Simon Hampton | October 27, 2022 at 1:58pm CDT

Utility-man Brock Holt has announced his retirement from the game after ten years in the major leagues in a post on Instagram. Holt spent seven seasons with the Red Sox, but also had stints with the Pirates, Brewers, Nationals and Rangers during his career. He retires with a career .262/.332/.362 slash line and 25 home runs across 751 games.

“Today I hang them up knowing I did the best I could for me, my family, and my teammates. I’m proud of every single second of it.” Holt wrote.

Drafted in the ninth-round of the 2009 draft by the Pirates, Holt made his MLB debut in Pittsburgh in 2012. He appeared in a handful of games that year before the Pirates shipped him and closer Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox in the Mark Melancon deal. In 2014 he established his value in Boston, appearing in 106 games and hitting .281/.331/.381 while logging time at every position bar pitcher and catcher. Having not accrued enough plate appearances during the previous two seasons, Holt was eligible for rookie of the year honors that year, and finished eighth in AL voting.

Holt continued to provide value to the Red Sox, earning an All-Star game selection in 2015 and appearing in eight games during Boston’s World Series-winning postseason in 2018. In the final two years before free agency, Holt hit .286/.366/.407 in 662 plate appearances and set himself up to do nicely on the open market.

That wasn’t to be though, and Holt signed with the Brewers late in the winter prior to the 2020 campaign. After the pandemic-induced delay to that season, Holt hit just .100/.222/.100 in 36 plate appearances and was designated for assignment. He bounced around the majors a bit after that, spending time with the Nationals in late-2020, before playing for the Rangers during the 2021 campaign. Holt inked a minor league deal with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, but was released after failing to make the opening day roster.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Holt on his career in the majors, and wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

Offseason Chat Transcript: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2022 at 5:37pm CDT

In conjunction with the Red Sox offseason outlook post published last week, click here to read the reader chat devoted to questions about Boston’s winter plans.

Rich Hill, Red Sox Have “Mutual Interest” In Reunion

By Simon Hampton | October 20, 2022 at 10:10pm CDT

Rich Hill revealed on The Bradfo Sho podcast earlier this week that he’s had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about a return to Boston next season, saying that the two sides have “mutual interest” in a deal. Hill, 42, will be a free agent at the conclusion of the post-season.

“We’ve talked and had lunch with a few of the guys in the front office, and understand that there’s a mutual interest there,” Hill said. “Being able to stay home would be great.”

The Massachusetts native signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last December, and turned in 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball across 26 starts. Despite being the oldest active player in the majors, Hill didn’t show any signs of decline in 2022, and advanced metrics were all largely in line with his past few years of work. His strikeout rate dipped slightly from 22.7% in 2021 to 20.7% in 2022, but there were no major changes to his velocity and the lefty walked fewer batters as well (7% in ’22 down from 8.3% in ’21). He did miss a month in July due to a knee strain, and while there’s always some durability concern with a player entering their age-43 season, he’s still made 57 starts in the past two seasons.

Given the state of the Red Sox’ rotation and the fact that Hill lives in the Boston area, it’s no surprise that the two sides are interested in getting a deal done. Nick Pivetta is the most reliable starter under contract for next year, while rookie Brayan Bello showed promise in his 11 starts, but beyond that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha combined for 43 starts in 2022, but they join Hill as pending free agents. Former ace Chris Sale is a lock to opt in to the remaining two years, $55MM on his contract (with a $20MM vesting option in ’25), but he’s made just 11 starts in the past three seasons and while he’s expected to be fit for spring training, his injury history is a concern. The team turned to youngsters Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski for starts at points last season, but none is guaranteed to be a rotation option in 2023.

Ultimately, if the Red Sox are looking to compete in a crowded AL East they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. While Hill going into his age-43 season is not the big splash Sox fans may be hoping for, the team will surely need more than one starting pitcher addition, so a reunion with the veteran would solidify the rotation and likely wouldn’t come at a huge financial cost.

Eduardo Nunez Announces Retirement

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2022 at 4:08pm CDT

Former major league infielder Eduardo Nunez announced his retirement from professional baseball today in a post to his Instagram. “Today, it is with mixed emotions that I officially announce my retirement from professional baseball,” Nunez wrote. “I had the opportunity of a lifetime to play the game I love for more than a decade while competing for five amazing MLB teams.”

Nunez, 35, played for the Yankees, Twins, Giants, Red Sox, and Mets during a career that spanned 11 seasons in the majors. His last season in the majors was 2020, when he appeared in two games for the Mets. He played in the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2021 and did not play professionally during the 2022 season.

He made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, the first of four seasons spent in a utility role in their uniform. During his time in the Bronx, Nunez slashed .267/.313/.379 (86 wRC+) in 270 games while logging time at second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. Nunez’s career as a member of the Yankees ended when he was traded to Minnesota in 2014, where his career would begin to improve, with the highlight of his Twins tenure being the 2016 season that earned Nunez not only his only career All-Star appearance, but a deadline trade to the Giants. That season, he slashed .288/.325/.432 (101 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and shortstop.

Nunez would remain with the Giants until the following year’s trade deadline, when he would be swapped to the Red Sox. He re-signed with Boston during the 2017-18 offseason, and split time between second and third base while batting .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 127 games as the Red Sox won 108 games en route to a World Series championship. Nunez remained with Boston in 2019, appearing in 60 games before being designated for assignment in July.

Altogether, Nunez spent parts of 17 seasons playing professional baseball and batted .276/.310/.404 (90 wRC+) in his 3008 major league plate appearances, collecting 776 hits, 142 stolen bases, and 1136 total bases along the way. MLBTR wishes Nunez the best in his future pursuits now that his playing career has officially come to a close.

Christian Vazquez Eyeing More Playing Time

By Simon Hampton | October 19, 2022 at 10:51am CDT

Astros catcher Christian Vazquez will be a free agent this off-season, and has indicated his biggest priority will be finding a team willing to hand him the starting job.

Vazquez, 32, started 24 of a possible 58 matches after being traded from the Red Sox to Houston for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez on deadline day. The team usually opts for Martin Maldonado to catch Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers, meaning starts for Vazquez haven’t been as plentiful as in Boston.

“It was hard and it’s still hard,” Vazquez told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ll be a free agent after the postseason and I can choose where I want to go. Everybody knows that.”

The Puerto Rico native had been with the Red Sox since being drafted in the ninth round in 2008, and had been their starting catcher since 2018. He put together a combined .262/.311/.389 line during his time in Boston, and graded out as an above-average catcher defensively. His bat and ball skills are well measured, but he’s also widely regarded as a strong leader and positive clubhouse presence, too. Vazquez’ offensive numbers dropped significantly after the trade, and he hit just .250/.278/.308 across 108 plate appearances, but given the sudden drop in playing time perhaps it’s forgivable that Vazquez struggled to find consistency initially. Nonetheless, he’ll figure to do well in free agency as one of the better catchers available.

Bat-first catcher Willson Contreras headlines the catching free agents, but Vazquez is arguably the second best option available. With Maldonado under contract in Houston for another year, it seems likely that Vazquez will look for a new team to give him the playing time he seeks. While almost any team could do with a well-rounded catcher like Vazquez, a return to the Red Sox would be something he’d welcome.

“I hope so. I’d love it. It was my [house] for a long time,” Vázquez said. “We’ll see how it goes.”

Reese McGuire impressed down the stretch for the Red Sox, but Kevin Plawecki is a free agent and Connor Wong struggled in his small sample of playing time so the Red Sox do figure to be active in the catching market this off-season. Ultimately though, with the Mets, Twins, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Guardians, and White Sox among the contending teams that could be seeking upgrades at the position Vazquez is likely to have plenty of interest.

Eduard Bazardo Elects Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | October 17, 2022 at 2:24pm CDT

The Red Sox announced this afternoon that right-hander Eduard Bazardo has gone unclaimed on outright waivers and elected free agency, as is his right with multiple career outright assignments. Boston had designated him for assignment last week upon claiming reliever Jake Reed off waivers from the Orioles.

Bazardo made 12 appearances for the Sox down the stretch after being selected to the majors at the start of September. He pitched to a 2.76 ERA over 16 1/3 innings, but he allowed four home runs while only striking out 16.9% of opposing hitters. The front office was clearly skeptical of his ability to continue to allow fewer than three earned runs per nine with those peripherals. He was bumped off the 40-man roster for the sidewinding Reed.

That late-season work was Bazardo’s longest stretch of play in the majors. His only previous big league experience was a two-game cameo in 2021, when he tossed three innings. The Venezuela native has otherwise spent his eight-year professional career climbing through the Boston farm system. He’s spent parts of the last two years at Triple-A Worcester, where he’s worked to a 4.33 ERA with an average 23.1% strikeout rate and a solid 7.7% walk percentage.

As he heads to the open market for the first time in his career, Bazardo represents an affordable option for teams seeking bullpen depth. He’s likely to receive a few minor league offers with big league Spring Training invitations.

AL East Notes: Moreno, Rutschman, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 16, 2022 at 7:12am CDT

With Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno all vying for playing time in 2023, there has been constant speculation over which of these catchers could be dealt to help the Blue Jays address other needs. However, a trade isn’t necessarily a sure thing, as one (at least temporary) answer could be to move Moreno out from behind the plate, as noted by Shi Davidi in a piece for Baseball America. Moreno played in a handful of games at first and third base in the minors, and the final game of the Blue Jays’ 2022 season saw him play as a second baseman and left fielder for the first time in his pro career.

“We have to be open to everything. That’s why you’ve seen him play in different positions,” Toronto GM Ross Atkins told Davidi and other reporters. “But we have to be open to any way to maximize our 40-man roster at this point, and (catching) is clearly an area of depth.”

A catcher athletic enough to play other positions carries extra value, and depending on how well Moreno adapts, his ultimate future might not even be behind the plate. For instance, the Diamondbacks find themselves looking for catching help since former catcher-of-the-future Daulton Varsho has delivered such strong glovework in the outfield. Finding a way to fit Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen into the same lineup would be a boon for the Jays, as Moreno doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A. Returning Moreno to the minors “is not our best outcome, most likely, given his progress,” Atkins said.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 15, 2022 at 5:03pm CDT

The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)

Option Decisions

James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Cordero, Taylor, Chang

Free Agents

J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm

With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons. It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch. The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.

Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston. However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras. While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.

Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline. That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.

That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs). The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter. Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.

The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom. It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure. While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.

In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division. (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.) The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.

All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte. Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.

Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market? Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.

For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want. With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.

Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion. He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson). Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.

Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options. The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder. Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time. Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.

Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show. Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause. It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.

After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate. Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options. A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.

Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark. The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress. Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.

Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field. With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.

The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time. Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised. Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.

There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more. Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.

While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded. A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.

The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings. The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.

Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season. Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA. The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.

Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons). The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident. While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.

Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training. The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter. However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses. James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice. Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form. Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed. It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.

When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series. Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023. As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Red Sox Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect