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2022-23 Offseason Outlook

2022-23 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is in the books for another year, as we’ve now completed all 30 of our previews of what each team might have in store for their winter transactions. A new feature also debuted this year — a live chat devoted to every club, so fans could contribute to the discussion about their favorite team’s offseason. This post contains the full sets of links to each Outlook post, and transcripts of the reader chats.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option

Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tendered: Josh James

Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM

Free Agents

For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.

With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.

For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.

There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.

Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.

Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.

The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.

That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.

Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.

Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.

No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.

Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.

The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.

Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.

If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.

Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.

Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.

The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.

There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.

In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants have been conservative with their spending during the Farhan Zaidi era, which has led to inconsistent results. Their 107-win campaign in 2021 was excellent but they followed that up with an exact .500 season in 2022. All signs point to this being the offseason that the wallet opens, with many possible routes to take, one of which leads to Bay Area native Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitments: $89.15MM
Total future commitments: $111.15MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one. On the heels of an unexpected renaissance in 2021, Buster Posey decided to retire on a high note. In 2022, they couldn’t keep the magic going, with injuries putting a damper on Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. Those latter two names are now free agents and might not be back, while the former two are each entering the final years of their respective contracts.

How they proceed with this era will be fascinating to watch, with many possible paths ahead of them. Since Farhan Zaidi was named president of baseball operations four years ago, the club has generally avoided long contracts, attempting to build around their veteran core with modest signings, waiver claims and prospects. (It’s worth noting they did reportedly offer Bryce Harper $310MM over 12 years, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, but a deal didn’t come together.) As mentioned, the results have been mixed. They hovered around .500 in three of the four seasons since his hiring, with the 107 wins in 2021 as the huge exception.

The upside of that conservatism is the that club’s payroll is wide open. In the short term, Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to currently be around $132MM. That’s well shy of 2022’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, as well as their franchise high of $201MM from 2018. The long-term picture is even better, with modest amounts still owed to Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores in 2024 and nothing besides the Flores option for 2025 and beyond. That leaves essentially all avenues open to them this winter. “From a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi recently told reporters, including Pavlovic.

Since no one is off the table, many people have set their sights on the very top of the free agent market, which is Aaron Judge. Towering above everyone else in more ways than one, Judge has been speculated as a fit for the Giants due to his Bay Area roots. He was born in Sacramento and raised in Linden, which is about a two-hour drive from Oracle Park. The Yankees will likely be highly motivated to prevent the Giants from poaching him, given Judge’s tremendous abilities and star power. However, there’s really nothing to make the fit in San Francisco impossible at the moment. Though Judge will command a mammoth contract, with MLBTR predicting $332MM over eight years, the Giants are one of the teams that can afford it.

In terms of the on-field fit, the Giants could make it work with Judge or just about any free agent. In recent years, they have targeted players with defensive versatility, which should help them juggle the puzzle pieces around, regardless of who they eventually acquire. The current outfield mix consists of players like LaMonte Wade Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González and Austin Slater. There’s also Joc Pederson, who received and accepted the qualifying offer in the past week. However, he had poor defensive numbers in 2022 and could be slated for significant time as the designated hitter. Though those outfielders all have their merits, none of them would stand in the way of Judge. Wade has spent some time at first base in recent years and could theoretically do that more going forward to de-clutter the outfield, if necessary.

The infield is currently a hodgepodge of multi-positional players, outside of Crawford. There’s Flores, La Stella,  Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and David Villar, along with some depth options. Those players all have at least some ability at more than one position, giving the club plenty of flexibility in how they make their moves going forward. They have been rumored to be considering the top free agent shortstops, in addition to their interest in Judge. The fit might be awkward for one season, with Crawford being a fan favorite and face of the franchise. He has 10-and-5 rights and isn’t likely to end up traded. It’s possible the club could sign a shortstop to play second or third for one season, then have them slide over after Crawford’s contract expires. This would be somewhat akin to the Dodgers acquiring Trea Turner while they still had Corey Seager at short. Turner played second after the trade deadline in 2021 and then moved over to short for 2022 after Seager signed with the Rangers. Turner is now one of the “Big Four” free agent shortstops alongside Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. They will all likely be able to secure nine-figure contracts but, as mentioned, the Giants are well positioned to make such a move.

Behind the plate is another area where the club could consider making an investment. Joey Bart has long been considered one of the club’s most exciting prospects, but he’s yet to permanently cement himself at the big league level. He was blocked by Posey for a while but finally got some significant playing time in 2022. In 97 games, he hit .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. That’s roughly league average offensive production for a catcher, though it came with a concerning 38.5% strikeout rate. On the other side of the ball, Bart got negative grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and the FanGraphs framing metric. He’s about to turn 26 and could still take steps forward but the club will likely want to have other options on hand. The only other backstop currently on the 40-man roster is Austin Wynns, who had a fine showing in a backup role in 2022. However, the Giants could find other options, with free agents like Omar Narváez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez available in free agency. A bigger splash on someone like Willson Contreras is something they could afford if they aren’t really committed to giving Bart a chance, though they some more focused on other areas of the roster.

While Belt and Longoria have spent significant time with the Giants and are notable departures for nostalgia reasons, the club’s most significant free agent loss is Carlos Rodón. The lefty has long been known as a very talented pitcher, but one who struggled to stay healthy. He had a strong 2021 that erased many of those injury concerns, though not all. He pitched 132 2/3 innings for the White Sox with a 2.37 ERA but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. The Sox were concerned enough not to give him a qualifying offer. The Giants pounced and gave Rodón a two-year, $44MM deal, though one that allowed him to opt out after the first year and return to free agency as long as he pitched 110 innings. He shot way past that, finishing the season at 178 frames and a 2.88 ERA, further distancing himself from those previous injury concerns. He made the easy decision to opt out and will now be looking for a huge payday, even after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Zaidi has said that the club will try to retain Rodón, but they will certainly have competition. The Rangers are already known to be interested, for instance. Even without Rodón, the rotation isn’t in terrible shape. On paper right now, it would be Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. Webb and Cobb have each been good in each of the past two seasons. Wood’s 2021 ERA of 3.83 jumped to 5.10 in 2022, but with fairly similar rate stats and advanced metrics. DeSclafani is less certain at this point because his strong 2021 was followed by a frustrating 2022. He made just five starts before ankle surgery ended his season. Junis had some success in a swing role last year before getting bumped into the rotation, though his results declined after that. There’s some decent ingredients in there, though the group would certainly benefit from retaining Rodón and bumping Junis back into the bullpen. If they miss on Rodón, there are plenty of other starting pitchers available, with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom at the top of the market, followed by guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and many more.

In the bullpen, Camilo Doval seems to have stepped up and grabbed hold of the closer’s role. He tossed 67 2/3 innings in 2022, striking out 28% of batters faced and finishing with a 2.53 ERA. Those results came in high-leverage situations, with Doval racking up 27 saves. He’s yet to reach arbitration and can be retained cheaply for years to come. There are some more seasoned options behind him, like John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers. Like all clubs, the Giants are a candidate to grab a reliever or two. There are dozens of options, including Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez and Andrew Chafin, but perhaps the most fun reliever to consider is Taylor Rogers signing to join his twin brother Tyler.

In the end, there’s no shortage to what the Giants can do this winter. They have as much payroll flexibility as any contender and plenty of ways to use it. That could be a huge splash like Aaron Judge, one of the big shortstops, an ace for the rotation — or spreading the money around more evenly on a bunch of mid-market options. They could plausibly be connected to most of the free agents this offseason and will surely make significant moves of some kind. Just about everything is on the menu and fans are expecting a feast of giant proportions.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Giants-centric chat on 11-21-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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In conjunction with the Phillies installment of our annual Offseason Outlook series, I’ll be hosting a Phillies-centric chat here at MLBTR later today, at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, to join live, or to read the transcript after it’s complete.

The Phillies nearly pulled a rabbit out of their hat, going from disappointing start and early-June managerial change to storybook finish and a surprise World Series run that ultimately came up just short. With an 11-year playoff drought now ended and a 2022 World Series berth in their back pockets, they’ll take aim at improving the club and finishing the job in 2023.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitment: $130.375MM
Total long-term commitment: $497.625MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16MM club option on RHP Aaron Nola
  • Declined $17MM club option on 2B Jean Segura (paid $1MM buyout)
  • RHP Zach Eflin declined $15MM mutual option (received $150K buyout)

Free Agents

Buoyed by a dominant postseason showing from Bryce Harper and — until the World Series — otherworldly starting pitching from co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies came within arm’s reach of their first World Series title since 2009. It wasn’t meant to be, as they ran into a Houston buzzsaw that generally matched their starting pitching prowess and came through with more timely hits late in the series. Now, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld will be on the lookout for reinforcements to get the Phillies back to the Fall Classic in 2023.

The first order of business was largely a formality. When the Phils fired Joe Girardi in early June and elevated veteran bench coach Rob Thomson to the manager’s chair, many were happy for Thomson to finally get a chance at running a team. Few could’ve predicted the epic tear the Phillies would go on following the managerial shift, however. Reaching the postseason — let alone the World Series — seemed like a pipe dream. But that’s exactly how things played out, and Dombrowski, Fuld and owner John Middleton rewarded Thomson to the tune of a two-year contract extension as manager — sans “interim” label — with an option for a third season. Not long after, the Phils extended hitting coach Kevin Long and invited back the entire staff for the 2023 season.

With the field leadership in place, the Phillies will turn their focus to filling out a roster that — as one would expect for a World Series club — isn’t exactly rife with holes. That’s not to say they’ll stand pat — far from it, in all likelihood — but the Phils have a strong foundation in the lineup, rotation and bullpen moving forward.

Starting with the one-through-nine, the Phillies surely feel set in the outfield corners, at designated hitter and at least one middle infield spot. The trio of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos will hold down the outfield corners and designated hitter, though the manner in which that’ll play out next season is largely dependent on Harper. He’ll undergo elbow surgery this week to address the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, but the extent of the procedure won’t be known until surgeons begin the operation. Imaging hasn’t confirmed whether Harper will need a full ligament replacement (i.e. Tommy John surgery) or “merely” an internal brace procedure. Tommy John surgery would come with a lengthier recovery, but he’ll be back by midseason either way (perhaps earlier, in the event of an internal brace or primary repair operation). Regardless, don’t look for the Phillies to add any corner outfielders or DH-only players of note.

The same is true behind the plate, where J.T. Realmuto turned in a vintage season and can still lay claim to being one of the top catchers — if not the top catcher — in Major League Baseball. The current AAV record holder for catchers ($23.1MM) slashed .276/.342/.478 with 22 homers, 21 steals and premium defense at the sport’s most physically demanding position, taking home his third Silver Slugger and second Gold Glove in the process. He’s a star in every sense of the word and is a lock for primary catching duty again in 2023. Backup Garrett Stubbs was outstanding in 121 plate appearances (.264/.350/.462), so there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to be in the mix for a backup, either.

In the infield, things get a bit murkier. That might be underselling matters, in fact; the infield mix is arguably quite wide open. Granted, Rhys Hoskins is coming off a .246/.332/.462 slash, 30 homers and a postseason with six home runs — several of which were delivered in clutch spots — but he’s also a year from free agency and generally regarded as a poor defender. With a projected $12.6MM salary for the 2023 season, Hoskins isn’t necessarily a “bargain” anymore, and it’s at least feasible that the Phillies would be open to some kind of swap to improve upon his suspect defense. That’s not to say Hoskins will be aggressively shopped, but the notion of him changing hands at some point isn’t entirely far-fetched. Twenty-seven-year-old Darick Hall is probably ticketed for more DH work early in the year while Harper mends than time at first base, but he’s one alternative if the Phils do get an offer to their liking on Hoskins.

Across the diamond, the Phils received only average offense from 26-year-old Alec Bohm, who also happened to turn in some of the worst defensive grades you’ll see at third base (-17 Defensive Runs Saved, -9 Outs Above Average). Trading Bohm, who’s controllable through 2026, would be selling low, but the Phils could conceivably be open to such a move after two straight years of lackluster offense and quite poor defensive ratings. One alternative would be to slide Bohm across the diamond to first base, hoping the bat will come around and that the glove will play at a less-demanding position, though doing so might necessitate moving on from Hoskins. There’d be DH playing time to go around early in the season, but once Harper is healthy, a roster with him, Schwarber, Castellanos, Hoskins and Bohm is tough to field without making substantial defensive concessions, as the Phils did in 2022.

The corner infield situation is further muddied by the fact that there’s no quality everyday option at third base on the free-agent market. Justin Turner still has more than enough bat, but his defensive grades have tanked and the Dodgers played him at DH more than third base in 2022. Evan Longoria is an option, but age 37, he’s not the star he once was. Jace Peterson quietly brings an OBP-driven, defensive-minded value to the hot corner, but his track record is limited despite his age (33). Brandon Drury had a breakout year between the Reds and Padres, but it’s an open question whether he can sustain it. The trade market will have a few options, but the best-case scenario for the Phils would simply be for Bohm to find a way to improve upon his glovework.

In the middle infield, the Phils are set to bid farewell to Segura after declining his option. Doing so would afford them the flexibility to play young Bryson Stott at either middle-infield slot, perhaps setting the stage for a run at one of the market’s four premier shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Such an expenditure might sound far-fetched on the surface, with Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Castellanos and Schwarber all already commanding salaries of $20MM annually. However, Nola is a free agent following the 2023 season and Wheeler returns to market following the 2024 campaign. That creates both some near-term flexibility and also increases the urgency to win now, when that dynamic one-two punch remains on the roster.

If the Phils don’t plan to pursue one of the “big four” shortstops, there are alternatives at either middle-infield slot. A reunion with Segura at a lesser annual rate certainly seems plausible. Over at shortstop, Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias are free agents, while Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is coming off a solid season and seems like a probable trade candidate. The Phils also have deadline pickup Edmundo Sosa if they prefer a defensive-minded approach to shortstop in 2023. The 26-year-old is a plus defender who hit well in St. Louis in 2021, struggled with the Cardinals in 2022, and found himself revitalized with the Phillies following the trade deadline. He’s a likelier bench option, but as far as fallbacks go, the team could do worse than a sure-handed infielder coming off a .254/.320/.381 slash dating back to 2021.

Center field has been the other glaring hole for the Phillies in recent years, but the organization swung a proactive move intended to shore up that spot for years to come back at the trade deadline. Sending top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels, the Phillies acquired former top prospect Brandon Marsh, whom they can control through the 2027 season. Marsh, a 2016 second-round pick who was once viewed as a building block in Anaheim, has struggled with his consistency but shown flashes of immense potential.

The Phillies tweaked Marsh’s stance and swing mechanics (Twitter links via Talkin’ Halos), and the early results were night-and-day. After hitting .226/.284/.353 with the Angels in 2022, Marsh hit .288/.319/.455 as a Phillie and cut his strikeout rate from 36.2% to 29.7%. He hasn’t yet drawn premium defensive marks in center field, but Marsh was heralded as a potential plus defender as a prospect and certainly has the tools to be an everyday center fielder in Philadelphia. He’ll likely get that chance in 2023, due both to his solid finish in 2022 and to the steep price the Phils paid to acquire him.

As far as the pitching staff goes, the foundation is set. Nola is in his walk year, so the possibility of a contract extension to keep him in Philadelphia beyond the 2023 season could very well be broached in Spring Training. Whether he stays or goes, Nola will again join Wheeler in forming one of the game’s great rotation duos. Following them will be lefty Ranger Suarez, who’d cemented himself as a quality big league starter even before elevating his profile with a clutch postseason showing. Dombrowski has already said that the Phillies will likely entrust one rotation spot to a young arm such as Bailey Falter or perhaps even top prospect Andrew Painter.

With Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard all departing to the free-agent market, that leaves one spot to fill and more than a dozen names to potentially take that role. There’s a larger supply of veteran mid-rotation starters than usual in free agency this offseason, and while a couple names — Tyler Anderson and Martin Perez — are already off the board, Dombrowski will still have quite a list from which to choose. His ties to Justin Verlander from the pair’s Detroit days will no doubt prompt speculation about such a fit, and to the likely surprise of many, the Phillies could probably even offer the Max Scherzer-esque deal Verlander is said to be seeking and still come in just shy of the luxury tax.

Of course, any subsequent moves would put the Phils right back into tax territory, and to this point they haven’t been suggested as a likely player for Verlander. Certainly, the idea of them signing Verlander and a notable shortstop seems far-fetched. However, the point here isn’t so much to illustrate why Verlander singularly is a good fit, but rather to again highlight that even with so many weighty contracts already on the books, the Phillies have the financial capacity to play for pretty much any free agent they like. Alternate names on the rotation market include Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi (another former Dombrowski signee) and Andrew Heaney, to name a few. If the goal is to look for one-year solutions rather than multi-year names like those just listed, Corey Kluber becomes an intriguing option.

The bullpen, long seen as the Phillies’ Achilles heel — rhyme unintentional but now firmly staying in place — looks steadier than in years past. Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado were both terrific in 51 innings and could form a strong eighth inning/ninth inning tandem. Minor league signee Andrew Bellatti proved to be a steal, thanks largely to ramped up usage of his slider. Connor Brogdon, 27, improved considerably over his already-strong rookie season in 2021.

There are still holes to fill, of course, and it’s been a bull market for relievers early on. The Phillies will have the ability to jump into the mix for any of the remaining free-agent relievers, be it an established closer like Kenley Jansen or an upside play like Matt Strahm or Carlos Estevez. A reunion with David Robertson seems plausible as well. It seems likely they’ll add at least one reliever, be it via free agency or the trade market. Plugging in a pair of new relief arms, as the Phillies did last year with Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia, shouldn’t be ruled out.

Whether in the middle infield or in the rotation, there’s probably room for the Phillies to make one notable free-agent addition and a handful of supplementary moves and still avoid barreling too deeply into luxury-tax territory. Then again, given that they’re likely enjoying a revenue boon from their World Series run and could be facing the last year with Nola atop the rotation, perhaps the luxury tax will be of little consequence to owner John Middleton. For a team in this position, that’s very arguably the best way to operate, as the foundation of a team that pushed the Astros to six games in the World Series remains firmly in place — but perhaps only for one more season.

Dombrowski has never been one to shy away from major free-agent signings, and having just missed out on his third World Series title with a third different team, there’s good reason for another aggressive winter. The core of this year’s team will be back in 2023 — quite likely with some pricey new teammates.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves’ efforts to repeat as World Series champions fell short with a four-game Division Series loss to the Phillies. While it was a disappointing finish, there’s plenty of reason for optimism carrying into next season. The Braves won 101 games and were scorching hot from June onwards to claim a fifth straight NL East title. Much of that roster will be back, although they are facing the potential departure of their All-Star shortstop.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $212MM through 2032 (deal also includes 2033 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $153MM through 2029 (deal also includes 2030 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $78MM through 2026 (including buyout of 2027 club option; deal also contains 2028 club option)
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $75MM through 2028 (including buyout of 2029 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $72MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option; deal also contains 2032 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $48MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $37MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $25MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option; deal also contains 2027 club option)
  • Charlie Morton: RHP: $20MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Eddie Rosario, LF: $9MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Kirby Yates, RHP: $7.25MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Collin McHugh, RHP: $6MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Manny Piña, C: $4.5MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, 2B: $1.4MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Nick Anderson, RHP: $875K through 2023 (arbitration-eligible through 2025)

Other financial commitments: Owe Rangers $10MM in 2023 as part of Jake Odorizzi trade

Total 2023 commitments: $164.675MM
Total future commitments: $767.025MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projection: $22.9MM

Non-tender candidate: Matzek

Free Agents

The Braves stormed back from a deficit that had been as high as 10 1/2 games to claim another division title. One could argue their 2022 team was the best they’ve had in this past half-decade of immense success, but they couldn’t repeat as World Series champions. Now they head into a second straight offseason with the potential departure of one of the winter’s top free agents.

After allowing Freddie Freeman to walk to the Dodgers last offseason, Atlanta has to decide how to proceed with Dansby Swanson. Like Freeman, Swanson has played his entire big league career in Atlanta (although he was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks). He’s an incredibly durable player who has reliably been in the Braves lineup almost every day for six-plus years. After some early-career offensive struggles, he’s turned a corner at the dish to pair with consistently strong shortstop defense.

Swanson has been an average or better hitter three years running. He’s coming off a .277/.329/.447 showing and reached the 25 home run mark for the second straight season. Swanson strikes out a bit more than average and doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but it’s rare to find plus defensive middle infielders with above-average power. The former #1 overall pick earned his first All-Star nod this past season and fits right alongside Javier Báez and Trevor Story — each of whom secured $140MM guarantees with opt-out clauses last winter — as free agent shortstops heading into their age-29 seasons. Swanson’s not elite, but he’s very good, and there’s no question the Braves would prefer to keep him around.

A Georgia native, Swanson has spoken in the past about his desire to return. While there’s clearly mutual interest, financials will needless to say play a big part in deciding whether he’s back in their lineup on Opening Day. Swanson hasn’t given any public indication he’s willing to take a massive discount to stick around, and he reportedly declined an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season. Given how easily Báez and Story each topped that figure, it stands to reason Atlanta will have to raise their proposal significantly at this point — although, to be clear, a $100MM offer midway through what proved a career-best season to date may not have been all that unreasonable when the team first made it.

If Swanson does end up elsewhere, the Braves would recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft, since he rejected a qualifying offer. That’d soften the blow a bit, but it’d leave the win-now club with a major question at shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week the Braves are unlikely to sign any of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — each of whom is expected to command a loftier deal than Swanson. There’s a massive drop-off from Swanson to the fifth-best free agent shortstop, Elvis Andrus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, the lack of mid-tier free agent shortstops this winter could lead president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff to turn to the trade market if they don’t succeed in re-upping Swanson. The Guardians’ Amed Rosario, Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Reds’ Kyle Farmer are among a handful of speculative possibilities who could provide adequate production as a stopgap, but each would be a marked downgrade from the defending Gold Glove winner.

There’s a chance Atlanta decides against diving into the free agent or trade markets. Orlando Arcia isn’t a great fit as an everyday player on a contender, but he’s coming off a reasonable 2022 showing that saw him help fill-in at second base when Ozzie Albies was injured. More interesting is the possibility of allowing top prospect Vaughn Grissom to take the reins.

Grissom, 22 in January, put himself firmly on the radar with a massive showing in High-A to start the season. He was bumped to Double-A and appeared in only 22 games there before the Braves surprisingly jumped him straight to the big leagues as part of a revolving door at second base with Albies out. He got out to a blistering start before his production tailed off, but a .291/.353/.440 line through his first 41 MLB games is impressive enough to at least put him in the conversation for an everyday job out of the gate.

Certainly, turning things over to Grissom would be a risky play. He has zero Triple-A experience, and he showed a very aggressive offensive approach in his early big league look which he’ll probably have to dial back. A shortstop for much of his minor league tenure, he played almost exclusively second base in the majors and didn’t rate well there in his brief debut. Prospect outlets have expressed some concern about whether he’s athletic enough to play an effective shortstop, and it’s possible the Braves are wary of handing him such a key responsibility. They’re not completely averse to the idea, though, as David O’Brien of the Athletic writes that Grissom has been working one-on-one with renowned infield coach Ron Washington to try to hone his shortstop skills.

The Anthopoulos front office hasn’t been afraid to trust its top young talents, even in the absence of much upper minors experience. Re-signing Swanson would certainly raise the team’s floor, but it’d also require adding another massive contract to an increasingly cluttered payroll ledger. Roster Resource projects the team’s Opening Day payroll in the $196MM range, and only Tyler Matzek (who has a modest $1.8MM arbitration projection) stands out as a potential non-tender candidate. Before considering a new Swanson deal or any external upgrades, the Braves are projected for a payroll almost $20MM above this past season’s approximate $178MM Opening Day mark, itself the highest in team history.

The Liberty Media ownership group is clearly comfortable with a franchise-record payroll, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of playoff revenue they’ve banked over the past five seasons. CEO Greg Maffei reiterated recently the team is willing to open next year in the top five spenders (via Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). That doesn’t inherently mean they’re pushing spending dramatically above where things already stand, however.

In the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves already rank fifth in projected 2023 payroll. Their luxury tax number is projected by both Cot’s and Roster Resource between $222MM and $228MM, with Cot’s pegging that third-highest in the majors. Bringing back Swanson would send the franchise soaring past next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. The Braves already are one of the sport’s top spenders, regardless of whether they make any more notable investments.

While that kind of stacked payroll ledger can sometimes reflect a number of undesirable contracts a team wishes it could shed, that’s not the case for the Braves. Their investments, by and large, are ones with which the front office is unquestionably happy. Atlanta has had more success than any other team in extending its long-term core.

Much of the offseason attention for the Braves being focused on shortstop is a testament to the strength of the roster that’s otherwise in place. It’s arguably the most complete in the majors, with the heavy lifting already done in most areas. Atlanta has one of the top catching groups, with Travis d’Arnaud under contract for just $8MM. He’s likely to split time with William Contreras, who broke out with a monster .278/.354/.506 showing over 97 games this year. Contreras could also see some action at designated hitter and in left field, particularly if the Braves carry three backstops on the active roster. Veteran Manny Piña will make $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year free agent deal; he lost almost all of this past season to left wrist surgery, and the Braves could look to offload some or all of his salary to a team with less catching depth.

The infield aside from shortstop is set. Matt Olson and Austin Riley will probably be the corner tandem for the entire decade. Albies will be the second baseman, hopefully with better injury luck than he experienced this past season. Arcia can bounce around as a depth piece off the bench.

Two outfield spots are also locked down. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be the right fielder, with Rosenthal quashing any nonsensical trade speculation involving one of the sport’s best young talents. Michael Harris II is in center field, fresh off a Rookie of the Year-winning season. Like Olson, Riley, and Albies, Acuña and Harris have already signed long-term extensions that’ll keep them around for the foreseeable future.

The only other question mark on the position player side is in left field. Adam Duvall is a free agent and didn’t play well anyhow. Eddie Rosario had a rough 2022 campaign even after undergoing surgery to correct the vision in his right eye. Marcell Ozuna returned to the roster after last year’s domestic violence arrest and suspension. He didn’t play well on either side of the ball and was charged with a DUI in August. Atlanta acquired Sam Hilliard from the Rockies to kick off the offseason, but he has huge strikeout issues and a career .294 on-base percentage despite spending his career to date in Colorado.

It’s not a great group, and the Braves could certainly look for upgrades. Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are among the free agent corner outfielders available, while Andrew Benintendi figures to be a bit more expensive than the rest of that group. On the trade market, players like Max Kepler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jesse Winker could be shopped by their current clubs. The Braves could also give Contreras regular run in left field, but he played just one game there this past season.

Atlanta would surely welcome the possibility of parting with Rosario or Ozuna, but neither is going to have much trade appeal. Finding a taker for a fraction of the $8MM due to Rosario next season could be viable, but the Braves may just prefer to hold him and hope for a bounceback. It’s hard to envision another team engineering even a swap of underwater deals to take on Ozuna, who’s due $37MM for the final two years of a contract that proved a rare misstep for the organization. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Braves release him entirely if he gets off to a slow start.

Just as there’s not much to quibble on the position player side, the pitching staff projects as one of the league’s best. Atlanta has a front four of Cy Young finalist Max Fried, Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Few teams can match that kind of 1-4, and there’s a chance the Braves try to work out long-term deals with either Fried or Wright. The former is already projected for a $12.2MM arbitration salary and just two years from the open market, so a Fried extension would be a much heftier investment. Wright is still a year from arbitration and under control for four seasons overall.

There’s a bit of uncertainty in the fifth spot, which Jake Odorizzi failed to effectively seize after being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline. Atlanta felt comfortable enough with its in-house depth to ship away Odorizzi days after he exercised his $12.5MM option, paying down $10MM of the deal and receiving depth arm Kolby Allard from the Rangers in return.

It was a vote of confidence some younger arms in the system can outperform Odorizzi, as Atlanta only saved $2.5MM. Anthopoulos pointed to Bryce Elder, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller as pitchers who could battle for the final spot. Anderson and Soroka each looked like core pieces of the future not too long ago. The former had a rough 2022 season, while the latter has had a nightmarish stretch of Achilles injuries that have cost him two-plus years. That duo has shown plenty of talent, however, and they pair with Elder — a well-regarded prospect who made his first 10 MLB appearances this past season — as depth options with some upside. Righty Freddy Tarnok could eventually get a look as well after a strong showing in the upper minors that briefly earned him his big league debut.

The Braves could scour the market for a depth starter, but they don’t have to force any additions considering the volume of in-house arms. Elder, Muller and Tarnok could trickle into a bullpen that also looks like one of the game’s best units. A.J. Minter broke out as an elite arm from the left side, backed up by the more quietly excellent Dylan Lee. The Braves agreed to take on the last three years of Raisel Iglesias’ contract in a deadline swap with the Angels, giving them a ready-made closing replacement if Kenley Jansen walks in free agency. Collin McHugh gives them a high-leverage setup type from the right side, and the Braves have rolled the dice on former stars Kirby Yates and Nick Anderson, each of whom are trying to regain their footing after lengthy injury rehabs. Atlanta could be a fit for a stable middle innings type — particularly one who throws right-handed — but that’s more of a luxury buy than a pressing concern.

That’s true of much of the roster, one which looks poised to remain among the sport’s best for a number of seasons. So much of the offseason attention will be focused on the shortstop uncertainty, but the Braves will enter the year as one of the likeliest teams to compete for a World Series if Swanson returns or not. Anthopoulos and his group won’t be complacent in a division that also features another 100-win team and the defending NL pennant winners, but the Braves are in excellent shape for this offseason and many beyond.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 11-19-22 at 11:00 am CST. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The 2022 Rays fell short of capturing their third straight AL East crown but still qualified for the postseason for a fourth straight season. They have a small free agent class, meaning the vast majority of the gang can be brought back for another year. However, with a huge arbitration class that featured 19 players lined up for raises, and large number of Rule 5-eligible prospects, they will be forced to make some tough decisions, a process that has already begun.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wander Franco, SS: $176MM through 2032, including $2MM buyout on $25MM option for 2033.
  • Tyler Glasnow, SP: $30.35MM through 2024.
  • Manuel Margot, OF: $19MM through 2024, including $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option for 2025.
  • Brandon Lowe, IF/OF: $15MM through 2024, including $1MM buyout on $10.5MM club option for 2025. Club also has $11.5MM option for for 2026 with $500K buyout.
  • Brooks Raley, RP: $5.75MM through 2023, including $1.25MM buyout on $6.5MM club option for 2024.

Option Decisions

Total 2023 commitments: $27.85MM
Total future commitments: $248.6MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Rays entered 2022 having won the division title in 2020 and 2021, looking to be strong yet again. It was a bit of a disappointing season though, with the club bitten pretty hard by the injury bug, particularly on the pitching staff. Despite various ailments, they still snuck into the playoffs by going 86-76 and taking the final Wild Card spot in the first year of the 12-team expanded playoffs. With much of the same roster in place for next year, it’s possible that the club will be better in 2023 just by having better luck on the health front. However, as is always the case with the Rays, payroll concerns might lead to some notable subtractions and creative solutions, especially with the loaded arbitration class.

Since Tampa’s decisions are usually motivated by money in some way, let’s talk turkey up front. Roster Resource estimates that the club’s 2023 payroll is currently slated to be around $72MM. The club had an Opening Day figure of $84MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A surprise splurge can’t be totally ruled out, since they reportedly made an offer to Freddie Freeman a year ago. However, that didn’t come to fruition and they ended up making modest signings while trading away arb-eligible players players like Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle and Jordan Luplow. If they are planning to spend at a similar level next year, they won’t have much to work with, though they could give themselves more breathing room by non-tendering or trading some of that big arb class. They’ve already gotten some of that work done, having traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates, as well as putting Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn on waivers. Those latter two elected free agency and Anderson has already signed with Atlanta.

The future offseason moves will hinge on where they subtract and where they add. Pitching seems to be especially in flux, with the club reportedly discussing Ryan Yarbrough, Shawn Armstrong and Yonny Chirinos in recent trades. None of those pitchers are essential pieces of the pitching staff, meaning the Rays are in a position to make some minor moves and still wind up in a decent position overall. Even with Shane Baz undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss all of 2023, the rotation still consists of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in the front four spots.

Yarbrough is a candidate for the fifth spot, but he has a 4.90 ERA over the past two seasons combined. If they pull the trigger on a deal, that would leave a hole, but they have other options to fill it. Luis Patiño was limited by injuries in 2022 but is just 23 years old and could still establish himself as a valuable starter. There’s also Taj Bradley, considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He finished his season with 12 Triple-A starts and should be in position to make his MLB debut in 2023. Even if no one steps up to secure the final rotation spot or an injury creates another hole, the Rays have shown they’re not afraid to rely on bullpen games to grind through parts of the schedule. A free-agent addition can’t be ruled out, as the club signed Corey Kluber last year for a modest one-year, $8MM deal. However, they also have enough in-house options that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend elsewhere.

The bullpen is also in pretty good shape, unsurprising given Tampa’s penchant for finding unheralded arms and helping them find their best selves. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, J.P. Feyereisen, Jalen Beeks, JT Chargois all posted ERAs under 3.00 in 2022 and should form a solid backbone for the relief corps. A trade can never be ruled out with Tampa, but none of that group is projected to make more than a few million. Given the club’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s possible they’ll make another low-key signing or two in order to supplement the group. Raley, for instance, posted a 4.78 ERA with Houston in 2021 as a 33-year-old before signing a $10MM deal with the Rays. He then earned a 2.68 ERA in Tampa this year. Adam, the owner of a 1.56 ERA through 63 1/3 innings with the Rays this past season, is an even more extreme example; he signed for just $900K prior to the 2022 season.

One area without a solid foundation is the catching mix. The Rays picked up a club option on Mike Zunino for 2022, but he performed poorly over 36 games before requiring season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. To fill that hole, the Rays acquired Christian Bethancourt in a trade with the A’s. The veteran was playing in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having been bouncing around various organization, including a stint in the KBO. He ended up having the best season of his career, hitting .252/.283/.409 for a wRC+ of 101. He also got positive marks for his glovework, leading to 1.9 fWAR on the year in just 101 games. He can be retained via a modest arbitration raise, but do the Rays want to go into the season relying on a 31-year-old journeyman with an inconsistent track record, even if his 2022 was solid?

Francisco Mejía and René Pinto are also on the 40-man roster to give them some depth, but the Rays could still look to address the catching mix in some way. They don’t seem likely to spend at top-of-the-market rates for (e.g. Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez), but there will be more affordable options, such as Omar Narvaez, Austin Hedges, Gary Sanchez, Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Perez. The trade market should also give them access to Oakland’s Sean Murphy or one of Toronto’s many backstops, though the latter scenario is likely difficult to line up for the AL East competitors.

For the middle infield, the Rays will be hoping for better health on the injury front in 2023. Shortstop Wander Franco and second baseman Brandon Lowe each missed significant time and neither got into more than 83 games on the year. Franco, of course, was considered the top prospect in the game and had a strong debut in 2021. Only 20 years old at the time, he then signed an 11-year extension to be the club’s shortstop and face of the franchise for over a decade. The first season was frustrating because of the injuries, but he’ll look to bounce back next year. Lowe is now 28 and has just two guaranteed years left on his contract, though there’s also a club option for 2025. You can never rule out a trade when it comes to the Rays, but given his down year, it would be selling low to make a move at this time.

For the rest of the infield, Choi has already been subtracted at first base but they still have many options for the corner spots and utility/bench roles. Yandy Diaz is coming off the best offensive season of his career and should have one spot locked down. He’s mostly played third base but can move across to first on occasion. Then there’s Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, Harold Ramírez, Taylor Walls, Vidal Bruján, Luke Raley and Miles Mastrobuoni on the 40-man roster. Not yet on the 40-man are highly-touted prospects like Kyle Manzardo, Xavier Edwards, Curtis Mead and Greg Jones. Those latter three will need to be selected this week to be protected from being scooped in the Rule 5 draft. That will surely lead to some classic Tampa roster shuffling in the days to come, but they should finish with many intriguing options for filling out the infield picture in 2023.

In the outfield, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot and Jose Siri are the three on-paper regulars, now that David Peralta is a free agent. Some of the utility infield options from the last paragraph will be in the mix for playing time on the turf as well, alongside former top prospect Josh Lowe and waiver pickup Bligh Madris. As said previously, no one can confidently say the Rays won’t trade from this mix. They’ve previously moved solid regulars like Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows, after all. While most of these current Rays have yet to reach arbitration, Arozarena just qualified as a Super Two and will now go through the arb process for the first of four times. Margot still has two years and $19MM left on his extension, making him the most expensive of the bunch. For now, they have plenty of options, but that can change in a hurry.

The path forward for the Rays is very unpredictable in terms of the specifics but it seems like it will follow a familiar path in a broad sense. Given their low-spending ways and roster crunch, they will surely be very active. They’ve already flipped Choi and cut Anderson, with more of those kinds of moves surely in the cards. Some of their arb-eligible players will likely be dealt or non-tendered, though there are so many options that even the Rays themselves can’t yet be sure just who’ll change hands.

Once the dust settles on those, they should have a few dollars to spend on modest additions to fill out whatever holes are created. It might not be as exciting as a team that’s targeting Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom in free agency, but this is how the Rays operate and they do it well. Even in an injury-marred 2022, they still grabbed their fourth straight postseason berth. Given that most of their key pieces are still in place next year, a bit more luck on the health front should have them back in the playoff mix yet again, though likely with more than a handful of new names and new faces.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 11-14-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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After a leadership change in both the dugout and in the front office, the Royals are taking their rebuild in a new direction.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C: $64MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026; $2MM of salary is deferred)
  • Hunter Dozier, IF/OF: $17.25MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
  • Michael A. Taylor, OF: $4.5MM through 2023

Total 2023 commitments: $31.75MM
Total future commitments: $86.75MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

J.J. Picollo has worked in the Royals’ front office since 2006 and he was promoted to the GM job just over a year ago, so it isn’t as though the Royals made a completely fresh start when he took over the baseball operations department from the fired Dayton Moore back in September.  But, if perhaps not a new book entirely, owner John Sherman is at least looking to start a new chapter in the wake of the team’s seventh consecutive non-winning season.  Even after the front office spent some extra money during the 2020-21 offseason, K.C. has yet to turn a corner, following up a 74-88 season in 2021 with an even more disappointing 65-97 record last year.

Naturally, Picollo bears some of the responsibility for these results as Moore’s second-in-command.  But now Picollo will get a chance to take full control over the Royals’ operations, and many of his initial moves have pointed towards changes.  Manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred were fired, while former bench coach Pedro Grifol will also be moving on as the new White Sox manager.

Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson, and Triple-A manager Scott Thorman were among the interview candidates for Kansas City’s own managerial vacancy, yet as Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters, “after we got through that initial round, able to talk to our committee of people about what we needed, we felt like what we needed at this time was to get a little bit of outside influence.  Fresh thoughts.  And challenge us professionally.”  As such, the Royals hired Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as their next skipper, with Quatraro taking his first MLB managerial post after years of working in various coaching and instructional roles at both the Major League and minor league levels in Tampa Bay and Cleveland.

With Quatraro and what is likely to be a significantly different coaching staff in place in 2023, it is also possible Picollo might look to make more changes within baseball operations, both on the big league staff and in the scouting and player development departments.  Moore’s front office made some similar moves back in 2019, but as illustrated by Rustin Dodd, Alec Lewis, and Andy McCullough of The Athletic, those changes have thus far failed to solve the Royals’ biggest issue — how to develop their young pitchers into viable MLB-caliber starters.

Specifically, the new pitching coach will be tasked with getting Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar on track.  Albeit under relatively short sample sizes, none of the trio of former Day One picks has shown much at the big league level.  Even with Brady Singer (the 18th overall pick of the 2018 draft) breaking out with a quality season, the struggles of the other young starters contributed to a poor year overall for the K.C. rotation.

While the Royals certainly aren’t giving up on their young arms, the first step might be to put less pressure on them to perform, as Picollo has stated Kansas City is looking to add some veteran pitching to the rotation.  To that end, the Royals reportedly have interest in bringing Zack Greinke back for what would be his 20th Major League season.  Greinke’s one-year, $13MM free agent deal was the highlight of the Royals’ last offseason, and he delivered a 3.68 ERA over 137 innings during his age-38 season.

Advanced metrics weren’t as keen on Greinke’s work.  His 4.78 xERA reflected his subpar hard-hit ball numbers, and his 12.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of any hurler in baseball with at least 130 innings pitched.  Greinke’s walk rate remains among the game’s best, but the rest of his numbers are troubling enough that if his control even drops from elite to good, it might lead to a big downturn in results.

Between Greinke’s track record, his long history in Kansas City, and his unique brand of clubhouse mentorship, the Royals might be willing to take the risk on the right-hander’s age-39 season, even at the cost of another eight-figure contract.  Even if Greinke does get some interest from other teams (who could offer a chance to play for a contender), his price tag might not reach $13MM again, increasing his chances of a possible return to the Royals.

Singer is essentially the only true lock for the 2023 rotation, as Picollo’s ideal might be a starting five of Singer, Lynch, Bubic, two veterans, and then Kowar, Jonathan Heasley, Max Castillo, Angel Zerpa, and Jonathan Bowlan as depth starters.  If a veteran starter is traded at the deadline, that opens up more innings for one of the depth pitchers, if a rotation spot hasn’t already been created by injuries or a lack of production.

Kansas City’s rotation struggled enough last year it doesn’t seem feasible Picollo would just bring the whole group back while hoping a new pitching coach can figure things out.  If the Royals did re-sign Greinke, that would seem to hint against a complete reunion of the 2022 staff, meaning Brad Keller could be traded or non-tendered.  Keller seemed to be turning into a K.C. building block after a solid first three seasons, yet he didn’t pitch well in either 2021 or 2022, though he did at least seem to be on track last year before a late-season breakdown cost him his starting job entirely.

At a projected arbitration cost of $7MM, Keller might be too pricy for the Royals to retain, as they could pursue another veteran with more upside at a comparable or even lesser cost.  Since the right-hander drew some attention before the trade deadline, Kansas City could see if any of those interested teams have more faith in a Keller turn-around, as he has at least shown he can eat innings.

Keller is one of a few familiar names who could be plausible non-tender candidates.  Ryan O’Hearn appears to have fallen out of favor, especially with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto ready for a longer look in the first base/DH roles.  Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont both struggled in 2022, but given their ability to miss bats, they could be the types of relievers the Royals hope could be fixed under the watch of a new pitching coach.  Like the rotation, the bullpen also struggled last season, yet K.C. is more apt to hope for some turn-arounds or internal solutions rather than make any big expenditures on relief pitching.

The Royals’ difficulties after winning the 2015 World Series could perhaps best be symbolized by Adalberto Mondesi, who has gone from cornerstone to possible non-tender.  Since debuting in 2016, however, Mondesi has only 358 Major League games played (the equivalent of a little more than two full seasons) due to a litany of injuries.  In 2022, Mondesi played in only 15 games before suffering a torn ACL.

Back in 2021, Moore had already indicated Mondesi might not be any more than a part-time player, and a major injury like an ACL tear only adds further doubt for a player whose game is built around speed and athleticism.  Mondesi’s $3MM arb projection isn’t a huge sum, but it is possible the Royals are done waiting on a player who turns 28 years old next season.

Between Mondesi, O’Hearn, and Hunter Dozier, multiple players the Royals once hoped would be part of their next winning team could be replaced entirely by a fresh set of faces.  Dozier’s contract naturally gives him some security, and his ability to play both corner infield and corner outfield spots makes him a viable player to be bounced around the diamond as circumstances dictate.  With Bobby Witt Jr. expected to resume everyday shortstop duty, Dozier’s best path to regular playing time might be third base, but he won’t get a guaranteed job anywhere if he can’t improve upon his below-average hitting numbers over the last three seasons.

Dozier and defensive standout Nicky Lopez could potentially split time at third base, or perhaps provide cover for younger players at other positions — whether that’s Pasquantino and Pratto at first base/DH, or Michael Massey at second base.  Maikel Garcia and Nate Eaton also figure to be part of the infield picture, and could push Dozier more towards outfield than infield duty.

The outfield mix is only slightly more stable, with MJ Melendez, Michael A. Taylor, and Drew Waters tentatively penciled into the starting jobs.  Taylor is another player who drew some calls at the trade deadline, and could be moved to a team in need of defensive help if the Royals want to use Waters in center field instead of a corner spot.  After being acquired from the Braves in July, Waters’ change of scenery seemed to take, as he hit well at both the Triple-A level and in his first 109 plate appearances in the majors.

Kansas City hopes Waters can play every day in one of the outfield spots, with his specific placement based on Taylor’s status or on how other noted younger players best fit into the lineup.  Melendez will continue to get playing time at catcher when franchise icon Salvador Perez needs a DH day or an off-day, but left field is likely Melendez’s best opportunity for more at-bats as he continues to acclimate to big league pitching.  Turning 27 in March, Edward Olivares is a little older than most of Kansas City’s young core, but he hit well in limited action in 2022 while battling injuries and earned himself at least another part-time role in 2023.

Kyle Isbel, Brent Rooker, and minor leaguers Brewer Hicklen, Dairon Blanco, and Nick Loftin are also part of the depth chart, and will be competing for jobs during Spring Training.  It makes for a crowded outfield mix that perhaps would make the front office lean towards trading Taylor.  Moving Dozier would be trickier given his contract, yet Picollo could perhaps explore a trade involving Dozier and another team’s undesirable contract.

With all of these players on hand, is there room for the Royals to add at least one notable player to the everyday lineup?  Picollo has said the team is looking for at least one veteran hitter that would preferably hit from the right side, and Kansas City’s multi-positional depth is a plus in that it allows the front office to explore many possible options.  Third base or (if Taylor is dealt and Waters moves to center field) the corner outfield might be the most logical areas, or K.C. could add some pop to the first base/designated hitter mix.  However, a DH-only player isn’t really a fit since the Royals wouldn’t want to take at-bats away from Pasquantino or Pratto, though Pratto does have some corner outfield experience.

While it remains to be seen how Picollo’s front office will differ from Moore’s leadership, the payroll will remain the same, at least in the short term.  The Royals won’t suddenly start splashing around money with a new GM in charge, as Picollo has reiterated Kansas City will spend roughly close to its 2022 levels — so, somewhere in between the $95MM Opening Day roster and the $88MM the Royals were spending by season’s end (as per Roster Resource).  With roughly $76.5MM already committed to the 2023 roster, that leaves Picollo with some room to maneuver even without any non-tenders, but the Royals seem unlikely to use the bulk of their spending space on a single player.

“We’re operating right now near capacity with what we want to spend, but that’s where we need to be open-minded in how we can manage and free up some money to change the look of the team a little bit,” Picollo said. “John [Sherman] has told me, ’Let’s understand where we are as a team right now, and when the time is right for us to add to the payroll, we’ll do that.’ It’s going to ebb and flow a little bit, but with where we’re at as a team right now, adding an extra $20 million isn’t going to put us at the top.  There are other things we need to take care of first before we make that push with the payroll.”

As noted, non-tenders or trades are logical avenues for the Royals to “free up some money.”  Whereas a Keller or a Dozier might have limited appeal on the trade market, however, a player like Scott Barlow also stands out as a possible trade chip, given how teams have tried to pry him away from K.C. in the past.  Barlow is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration, he turns 30 in December, and he is a free agent after the 2024 season.  These factors could all make him expendable if the Royals don’t see Barlow as part of their longer-term future, but trading a quality reliever would further set back a Kansas City bullpen that is already in need of help.

The idea of 2023 as yet another evaluation year probably doesn’t hold much appeal to Royals fans, but it does seem more sensible than blowing things up and relaunching another rebuild, or suddenly spending to build around a young core that may not be stable.  Since Quatraro is coming from a Rays team renowned for developing young talent and for mixing and matching roster pieces to create a winning lineup, a managerial change alone might help K.C. get a better sense of which players are surefire building blocks.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees just posted their 30th consecutive winning season and made the playoffs for a sixth straight year. Yet there’s an air of uncertainty hanging over the offseason, with a decent chunk of the roster reaching free agency, headlined by face of the franchise and AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $216MM through 2028. Can opt out after 2024 but team can void that by tacking on $36MM option for 2029.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $160MM through 2027, including $10MM buyout on $25MM club option for 2028.
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $60MM through 2026.
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $31.36MM through 2025, including $1MM buyout on $12.5MM club option for 2026.
  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $27MM through 2023, including $6MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2024.
  • Harrison Bader, OF: $5.2MM through 2023.

Option Decisions

Total 2023 commitments (if Rizzo exercises option): $136.74MM
Total future commitments: $516.31MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s no real secret the big question facing the Yankees this winter is whether or not they can convince Aaron Judge to come back. Spring extension talks got a little bit awkward, with the slugger and the club failing to come to an agreement. General manager Brian Cashman took the unusual step of announcing the details of their offerJudge turned down, which was for $213.5MM over seven years, an average annual value of $30.5MM. Judge was reportedly looking for an AAV around Mike Trout’s $36MM on a longer term.

Turning down a contract offer of that size was certainly risky, as many things could have gone wrong for Judge in 2022, including a serious injury. However, the bet paid off in about the best way imaginable, as he ended up having an outstanding season. Not only did he hit 62 home runs and set a new American League record in that category, he also flirted with a Triple Crown, stole 16 bases, played about half the year in center field and got good marks in the process. His final slash line of .311/.425/.686 amounts to goofy-looking numbers like a 207 wRC+ and a 211 OPS+. He was worth 11.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs and 10.6 from Baseball Reference. That fWAR total hasn’t been seen since from a position player since Barry Bonds. And if you’re the type that wants to ignore Bonds, you’re going back to Mickey Mantle in the late ’50s.

There’s no doubting Judge will get paid more than what he turned down, the question is who will pay him. Judge has been quite tight-lipped about his preferences, but that hasn’t stopped people from speculating. Some will point to the boos he received during the Yankees’ frustrating postseason and suggest perhaps Judge would prefer to go to the Giants, further from the pressures of New York and closer to his Bay Area family. Others suggest there’s no way the Yankees will allow the PR nightmare of letting their best player be pried away from them. The Dodgers are always a threat and are reportedly willing to move Mookie Betts to second base in order to fit Judge into the picture. Much ink will be spilled and many clicks will be generated until we know the correct answer.

The Yankees certainly have the payroll to make it happen if they want. Roster Resource estimates they’re currently slated to spend about $192MM next year. Picking up Severino’s option would add $12.25MM but Rizzo’s likely opt-out will subtract $16MM, getting them just under the $190MM mark. However, the club could then give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $19.65MM this year. If he were to accept, the payroll would climb to about $210MM.

Their Opening Day payroll in 2022 was $246MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to cap their 2023 spending around this year’s levels, they should have close to $60MM to work with, or around $40MM if Rizzo accepts the QO. Given that Judge’s home run chase generated plenty of ticket sales, merchandise sales and TV ratings, there’s certainly an argument for a bump. Also, the Yankees have been usurped as the big dog on the block, getting outspent by the Dodgers and Mets this year. Perhaps they would feel the time is right to retake that throne in order to retain such a special player.

However, baseball games aren’t won by individuals and the club will also need to think about the rest of the roster. The outfield is currently set to lose both Judge and Andrew Benintendi to free agency, leaving the options on the grass looking a little thin. Deadline acquisition Harrison Bader will be in center and sure to provide excellent defense as well as adequate offense, or perhaps better. Aaron Hicks is still around but he hasn’t been both healthy and good at the same time since 2018. The Yankees would probably love to find a way to move him, but shedding any notable portion of the roughly $30MM remaining on his contract looks unlikely. At the very least, they’d presumably want to keep him in a fourth outfield role if they can’t find a trade partner. Giancarlo Stanton is mostly a designated hitter, taking the field in 38 games in 2022, his highest such total since 2018. He turns 33 this month and can’t really be counted on for anything more than occasional stints on the grass.

Oswaldo Cabrera was an infielder in the minors but learned outfield on the fly in order to help the team out down the stretch. He had a nice debut but in a small sample of just 44 games. Estevan Florial has shown promise in the minors but hasn’t yet been able to transfer that to the majors. He’ll be out of options next year and will need a spot on the active roster or have to be designated for assignment. Tim Locastro has wheels but is best suited for a bench/pinch runner role since his bat hasn’t shown enough to earn a regular gig. If Judge is indeed compelled to return, then things look much better. He can slot into right field next to Bader, with some combo of Hicks, Cabrera, Stanton and Florial covering left. Without him, it obviously needs addressing, with the Yanks then having to turn to lesser options like Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson or Mitch Haniger. Even with Judge, the Yanks might be wise to add to this crew in order to bump Hicks down the depth chart and free up Cabrera to play the infield.

There are also some question marks on the infield. A year ago, the Yankees steered clear of the big free agent shortstops, evidently quite confident that prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe could eventually take over the position. To that end, they acquired a placeholder in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who had a typical season for him, combining strong defense with subpar offense. However, some defensive miscues put a dent in his postseason playing time. Peraza had a strong season in Triple-A and got up to the big leagues by the end of the year, appearing in 18 regular season games as well as three in the postseason. Volpe spent most of the year in Double-A but got up to Triple-A by season’s end. Neither Peraza nor Volpe has done enough to guarantee themselves the job just yet, which means it makes sense to tender IKF a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. If he is eventually leaped on the depth chart by one of the young guns, he can then slide into a utility role. There’s also the presence of Cabrera, who could be in this mix if he’s not needed in the outfield. Given those various options, it’s possible the Yanks will avoid yet another big free agent shortstop market. If they are confident enough in the youngsters, they could even consider trading Kiner-Falefa, though that certainly comes with risk.

Elsewhere on the infield, Anthony Rizzo had a strong season and seems likely to opt out of his deal, especially with the new shift ban set to help him out going forward. As mentioned earlier, it’s possible he receives and accepts a qualifying offer, which will be determined shortly after the offseason begins. Second base should be taken by Gleyber Torres, who bounced back at the plate after a rough 2021 where he lost the shortstop job for good. Given his escalating arbitration salary, it’s possible the Yankees consider trading him for help elsewhere (they reportedly discussed him with the Marlins in talks surrounding Pablo Lopez this summer) and then use one of their shortstop candidates at the keystone.

Josh Donaldson was solid in the field but saw his wRC+ drop to 97, his first time being below 117 since 2012. His strikeout rate also jumped up to 27.1%, easily the worst of his career, outside of a cup of coffee way back in 2010. He’s about to turn 37 and the club will have to wonder if they need to cut bait before he potentially declines even further. Due $27MM next year (including a buyout on a 2024 option), he certainly won’t have any trade appeal. The Yankees will have to determine whether it’s worthwhile to eat the majority of his contract to move him or bring him back and hope for stronger results.

Despite an injury-marred finish, it was a solid season for DJ LeMahieu. He could potentially replace Rizzo at first base but could also man the hot corner if the Yanks find a way to move Donaldson. Then again, since he’ll turn 35 next year, perhaps it would be wise to keep him in the utility role so that he doesn’t have to be counted on for everyday work. As 2022 showed, the Yanks can win games with a rotation of Rizzo, Torres, IKF and Donaldson with LeMahieu getting work all over. In 2023, the contributions of Cabrera, Peraza and Volpe should grow, which will help. It wouldn’t be insane to keep the group together, but they could also look to other options. The first base market features plenty of solid veterans like Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Trey Mancini and Brandon Belt. The third base market is mostly composed of utility types like Jace Peterson and Aledmys Diaz.

Behind the plate, it’s likely the Yankees feel content with what they have. They decided to move on from the Gary Sanchez era and acquired a glove-first option in Jose Trevino. The bet seems to have paid off, at least in terms of defensive work. Trevino posted 21 Defensive Runs Saved, earned a 19.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric and was the Fielding Bible award winner behind the plate. Both of those numbers were the highest in all of baseball, allowing Trevino to be worth 3.7 fWAR despite hitting around league average for a catcher. Kyle Higashioka wasn’t quite as strong as Trevino but was still above-average on defense. For next year, they could target a bat-first catcher like Willson Contreras, or someone like Sean Murphy, who is good with the bat and the glove. But it doesn’t seem like that should be their highest priority since Trevino and Higashioka are both solid and set for modest arbitration salaries.

Turning to the rotation, the starting staff could be losing a valuable contributor in Jameson Taillon, but it should still be in good shape. Gerrit Cole led the majors in strikeouts again and will be back for more. Severino bounced back from three mostly lost seasons to have a fairly healthy campaign in 2022. He spent some time on the IL but still got over 100 innings after only pitching 18 total frames over 2019-2021. He’ll have his option picked up and will be around next year. Nestor Cortes Jr. will look to build on an excellent breakout campaign. Frankie Montas dealt with shoulder issues after being acquired from the A’s but will hopefully be healthy and back to his old self. They also have Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt as decent options for the back end. They’ll haver to decide whether to make Taillon a qualifying offer and, if they either opt against it or he declines, if they want to try to bring him back on a multi-year deal.

In the bullpen, the Yanks will see a couple of notable veterans moving on, as both Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton are slated for free agency. Also, Chapman and the team seemed to have a falling out after he skipped a team workout that occurred as the Yankees were waiting to see who they would face in the ALDS, and it seems highly unlikely he’ll be back. A Britton return is possible, but he’s no sure solution after two injury-plagued seasons. Miguel Castro and Chad Green are also heading to the open market, though Green is likely to miss at least part of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. The bullpen will also be without deadline acquisition Scott Effross, who required TJS in October.

With those subtractions, the remaining relievers include Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Wandy Peralta, Lou Trivino, Ron Marinaccio and others. There are certainly some solid arms in there, but there’s also room for some improvements. Holmes seemed to have the closer’s job on lock before scuffling midseason but then finishing strong. The top of the relief market will be Edwin Diaz, but there will be plenty of other available hurlers who could make sense, including Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Brad Hand, Chris Martin or Rafael Montero.

As for who’s running the ship, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt there. Cashman is in the final few months of his contract but that doesn’t appear to be an issue. The last time this happened was 2017 and a new contract wasn’t hammered out until December of that year. It seems he’ll eventually get the paperwork sorted to stick around; Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested that’s the likeliest outcome earlier this week. Manager Aaron Boone is under contract for 2024 with a club option for 2025. Some fans have called for his head after the disappointing playoff performance of the club, but Boone recently got a vote of confidence from owner Hal Steinbrenner.

All in all, there are many questions facing the Yankees this winter. Will they trade any of Donaldson, Hicks or IKF? How much do they spend on the bullpen, and do they get a proven closer? Is Rizzo back or do they need to address first base? But those all seem like trivial matters when compared to the massive question at the center of everything. Will Aaron Judge return to the only organization he’s ever known, or will he swap out the pinstripes for something new? It’s the biggest question of the offseason — not just for the Yankees, but for the entire league.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Yankees-centric chat on 11-4-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Baseball’s youngest team won the AL Central, defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and came within a game of advancing to the ALCS.  The future is now for the Guardians, as their new young core has already matured into a contending roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $119MM through 2028
  • Myles Straw, OF: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $16.5MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)

Total 2023 commitments: $19.3MM
Total future commitments: $157.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2022 might have been the greatest triumph yet for Cleveland’s vaunted player development system.  After an 80-82 record in 2021 and a pretty quiet offseason, it seemed as if the Guardians were poised to take a step back, yet it was clear that the front office had plenty of faith in its young players.  A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman.  These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.

The Guards were certainly helped by underwhelming performances by the other four AL Central teams, as well as a lot of good fortune in avoiding injuries.  However, Cleveland’s recipe of strong pitching, excellent defense, speed, contact hitting, and station-to-station baseball made the club a handful for anyone.  The only thing lacking was power, as the Guardians finished 29th of 30 teams in home runs (127) and 28th in Isolated Slugging (.129).

With this in mind, it isn’t quite as simple as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti just acquiring a couple of sluggers this winter and calling it a day.  For one, power costs money, and payroll is always a concern in Cleveland.  Roster Resource projects the Guardians for roughly $72.2MM in committed salaries heading into 2023 (including arbitration estimates), and while the club’s spending topped $146MM as recently as 2018, that was understood even at the time to be a temporary splurge.  With the pandemic impacting revenues, Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll in 2021 didn’t even top the $50MM threshold. They bounced back a bit and opened this year a bit shy of $70MM but still didn’t approach franchise-record levels.

In short, don’t expect the Guardians to suddenly become big spenders just because they’re back in contention, or just because David Blitzer became a minority owner of the franchise this past summer.  But, ownership increasing payroll to even the $85MM-$90MM range would certainly help the Guards add talent — or, the front office might have to get creative with how they re-allocate that $72.2MM.

This is why Amed Rosario might find himself a trade candidate.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Rosario’s projected $9MM arbitration salary could be a little steep for a team that has a wealth of intriguing middle-infield prospects.  The Guardians have certainly shown they’re willing to put their trust into younger players, so if they think any of Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, or Jose Tena are ready for prime time, Rosario may become expendable.

Even in an offseason where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson will all be hitting free agency, Rosario holds quite a bit of value as a trade chip.  Many teams obviously aren’t willing to give out the nine-figure contracts it will take to sign any of those top shortstops, and would thus have more interest in Rosario even just for one year (since he is set for free agency next winter).  Since Rosario could also theoretically be moved to second base, that only increases his list of potential landing spots.  On paper, the Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Giants, and Orioles are all plausible fits for at least short-term middle infield help.

If Rosario was dealt, Andres Gimenez could potentially slide over to shortstop, or just continue his Gold Glove-winning reign at second base.  Gimenez’s advanced metrics indicate he is likely due for some offensive regression in 2023, but he was so great last year (.297/.377/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals over 557 plate appearances) he’d be a dangerous hitter if he even approaches his 2022 numbers.

Gimenez will have one middle-infield position locked up, so where else could the Guardians add a bat?  Naturally, there isn’t any issue at third base with superstar Jose Ramirez, and the Guards also seem set with Kwan in left field and Josh Naylor at first base/DH.  Naylor hit well in his first season back from major leg surgery, and the Canadian could blossom into even more of a dangerous slugger now that he is further removed from his injury.

Finding another first base/DH type to share the two positions with Naylor seems like the most obvious spot for a new hitter.  The Guardians were hoping Franmil Reyes would fill this role after his 30-homer season in 2021, yet Reyes struggled so badly that Cleveland designated him for assignment in August, allowing the Cubs to claim him on waivers.  A right-handed hitter would pair best with the left-handed hitting Naylor, and depending on how much the Guardians have to spend, a free agent like Jose Abreu would be a very good fit as both a productive bat and a veteran clubhouse leader.  Beyond just the first base position, Trey Mancini and Mitch Haniger can also play the outfield, or the Guards could pivot to more of a DH-only type like J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.

Cleveland could aim to add more pop in the outfield, though the team will have to weigh the cost of adding hitting against possibly decreasing an excellent defensive unit.  Gonzalez may be the weakest link in this regard — he isn’t as accomplished a fielder as Kwan or Myles Straw and he had a very low 3.9% walk rate while benefitting from a .345 BABIP in his rookie season.

Then again, Gonzalez has more offensive upside than Straw, a Gold Glover and Fielding Bible Award-winning center fielder who was one of the game’s worst hitters in 2022.  Of all qualified batters, only Jonathan Schoop had a lower wRC+ than Straw’s 64, as he hit only .221/.291/.273 over 596 PA.  Straw had excellent speed and made plenty of contact, though his .261 BABIP was less a function of bad luck and more about Straw’s near-total lack of hard contact.  Getting even close to league-average offense (as Straw did with his 97 wRC+ in 2021) would make him a very valuable addition to any lineup, which was the Guardians’ logic when they signed him to a five-year extension back in April.

Jones or Will Brennan are on hand for more outfield at-bats, plus George Valera is yet another top-50 prospect who’s not far from his first taste of the majors.  That gives the Guardians some cover if they did float Straw or Gonzalez in trade talks, provided these players weren’t shopped for another outfielder altogether.  Speculatively, Straw could be shopped to a team looking to upgrade its outfield defense, while Gonzalez is the kind of MLB-ready, controllable bat that could appeal to a lot of teams.

Speculatively, Gonzalez could fit as part of a trade package Cleveland might offer to the Athletics in exchange for Sean Murphy.  The Guardians’ interest in Murphy dates back at least to the trade deadline, and while Murphy would be a great addition to many rosters, he’d be a particularly ideal match in Cleveland considering the team’s focus on defense and game-calling from the catcher position.  Not only is Murphy a strong defensive backstop, he is also an accomplished hitter. He’s also controllable through the 2025 season and projected for just a $3.5MM salary next year.

Between center field and catcher, the Guardians were basically playing with only seven lineup spots, given how little Straw and the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile tandem (with a few games from Sandy Leon, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Lavastida) provided at the plate in 2022.  Since Hedges is a free agent and Maile is a non-tender candidate, the catching position represents the cleanest way for the Guards to simply add a better hitter to the mix.  Plus, the younger Naylor brother is an interesting prospect in his own right, so Cleveland might feel it already has an in-house offensive upgrade.

If the Guardians do trust Naylor, they could roll with a Naylor/Maile platoon in 2023, or even re-sign Hedges for platoon duty and either let Maile go or try to retain him on a new minor league contract.  This might be Cleveland’s strategy if other bats were acquired at, say, DH or right field, as the Guards might then feel more comfortable about sticking with defense behind the plate and hoping Naylor could become the latest breakout rookie.

Murphy isn’t the only external option, of course, even though quality bats are rather scarce at the catcher position.  Free agent Willson Contreras will be too expensive, though Christian Vazquez might conceivably fall within their price range.  On the trade front, the A’s and Blue Jays are the top options for available catchers, and the Guardians have enough interesting players in both the farm system and on the MLB roster to perhaps outbid many other catcher-needy teams.

The Guardians could also conceivably trade from their rotation depth, with Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac perhaps expendable at the back of the rotation given how Cleveland has a number of young arms ready to start banking Major League innings.  With an eye towards arbitration costs, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of Cal Quantrill (projected $6MM) or Shane Bieber ($10.7MM) were dealt, though those two are more trusted members of the starting five.

Bieber, naturally, has been included in a lot of trade speculation as his price tag continues to rise.  However, since he is still controlled through the 2024 season, he probably won’t be shopped until the 2023 trade deadline at the absolute earliest, and that would likely only happen if the Guardians fell out of the playoff race.  Pilkington, Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, and top prospect Daniel Espino are among the many young starters who could be rotation options for 2023, yet using those youngsters to replace Bieber’s ace-level production is a taller order than replacing the more modest contributions of Civale or Plesac.

Cleveland’s ability to find and develop pitching provides the team with some rare flexibility in deciding whether or not to trade from its surplus, and it is possible the Guardians might just stand pat this winter, at least in terms of any major deals.  As noted, the Guards enjoyed quite a bit of good health in 2022, so they might want to retain their pitching depth as protection against the injury bug returning with a vengeance.

This depth filters down to the bullpen, as the Guardians could reinforce their already-strong relief corps with some of these pitchers coming up from the minors.  Headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland bullpen was one of baseball’s best last season, and not a lot of tinkering might need to be done.  Though the relievers gained some valuable experience in both the regular season and during the playoffs, it’s still a young bullpen that could do with a veteran arm, similar to the role that Bryan Shaw filled in 2022.  Though Shaw had a disappointing year and was outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the Guards might still pursue a reunion on a minor league contract, given the respect he’s earned as a clubhouse leader to his younger teammates.

Speaking of leadership, it has already been confirmed Terry Francona will be returning for at least one more season as Cleveland’s manager.  Physical problems kept Francona away from the team for big portions of both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, yet the veteran skipper returned to guide his young roster to the ninth winning season of his decade-long run in Cleveland.

With Francona’s health issues potentially heralding the end of his time in the dugout at some point in the not too distant future, he would surely love to capture one more World Series ring (and break another franchise’s title drought) before calling it a career.  The fact that a championship is now a plausible goal is a sign of how well the team has reloaded in just a year’s time, though the Guards will also have to caution against growing pains for their many rookies.  Some canny offseason additions can help protect against any sophomore slumps, and if enough youngsters continue to develop and Ramirez continues to deliver MVP-level production, the Guardians look like they’ll be dangerous again in 2023.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers won the most regular-season games in the franchise’s 133-year history, cruising to a 111-51 record.  Unfortunately, that success made it all the more disappointing when the Dodgers didn’t even win a playoff round, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS.  Los Angeles now faces the possible departure of several key members of the roster, yet also a potential opportunity to reload with more premium talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, OF: $320MM through 2032 ($99MM is deferred)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $135MM through 2027 ($50MM is deferred)
  • Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $45MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of club option for 2026)
  • Max Muncy, IF: $13.5MM through 2023 ($10MM club option for 2024, no buyout)
  • Blake Treinen, RP: $8MM through 2023 (conditional club option for 2024 based on Treinen’s health)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $7MM through 2024 ($3.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Daniel Hudson, RP: $6.5MM through 2023 ($6.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Note: Trevor Bauer is suspended without pay for the 2023 season, though Bauer is appealing the league’s ruling

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The price of being a perennial contender is that anything short of a World Series title feels like a letdown, though the Dodgers’ record has been so overwhelmingly good over the last decade that it’s hard to say that the franchise isn’t moving in the right direction.  This is the argument president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made in his after-season press conference, and yet it is also an argument Friedman has had to make in seven of his eight seasons running the L.A. front office.  Still, the 2020 World Series title is very recent evidence that Friedman’s approach can indeed get the Dodgers over the finish line, and the team will certainly go into 2023 as one of the favorites to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy.

Dave Roberts is coming back as manager, which isn’t surprising since the contract extension Roberts last spring hasn’t even officially begun.  Friedman also implied that the entire coaching staff will return, unless any coaches are offered promotions with other teams.  Adding to the “getting the band back together” feeling is the fact that the Dodgers already addressed some winter business by reaching extensions with Max Muncy, Daniel Hudson, Austin Barnes, and Blake Treinen during the season.

Of these new deals, Barnes is the only one who received a multi-year guarantee.  The Muncy, Hudson, and Treinen extensions all essentially amounted to the Dodgers guaranteeing a pre-existing club option for 2023, while adding another club option for 2024.  There was still some risk in these decisions, given that L.A. has now committed $14.5MM to two relievers who combined for 29 1/3 innings last season — Hudson was pitching very well before tearing his ACL in June, while Treinen barely pitched at all due to persistent shoulder injuries.

Muncy had an unusual season, and was undoubtedly impacted by a partial UCL tear in his left elbow suffered on the last day of the 2021 regular season.  Muncy opted against surgery, and then struggled to a .161/.310/.303 slash line over his first 339 plate appearances before turning it around to hit .247/.358/.500 in his final 226 PA.  His extension was announced a few weeks into that late-season hot streak, indicating that the Dodgers are confident that Muncy can get back to his old form when fully healthy.

Even with these four potential free agents locked up, Los Angeles still has a long list of names set to hit the open market, and even more notables that could also become free agents depending on club options or non-tenders.  Muncy’s extension may be seen as a hedge against an infield overhaul, considering that Trea Turner will be one of the headliners of the 2022-23 free agent class, backup Hanser Alberto is probably unlikely to be retained, and the Dodgers face a $14MM decision on whether or not to exercise the club option of longtime staple Justin Turner.  The third baseman turns 38 in November and is coming off an inconsistent 2022 season,

The first base and catcher positions are locked down by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.  Muncy can play second or third base, and Gavin Lux can continue at second base or slide over to shortstop if Turner departs.  Edwin Rios has been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, but he has shown enough flashes of hitting potential and the Dodgers will likely tender him a contract and hope he can contribute to the corner infield mix (though like Muncy and Freeman, Rios is also a left-handed hitter).  Top prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut last season and also figures to be a factor in left field or third base, even if the Dodgers may not be sure about his eventual position in the majors.  Super-utilityman Chris Taylor can fill in all over the infield, though Taylor was mostly deployed as an outfielder last season and is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season.

Many teams would be quite satisfied with a starting infield of Smith, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, and a Vargas/Rios platoon at third base, with Taylor as a multi-position backup and touted rookies Michael Busch (a top-100 prospect in his own right) and Jacob Amaya knocking on the door for their own Major League debuts.  But…this is the Dodgers we’re talking about.  They prize roster flexibility, and they have the financial resources and minor league depth to pursue just about every free agent or trade candidate on the market.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers exercise Justin Turner’s option, re-sign Trea Turner, and just run things back with the core infield of an 111-win team.  If Trea Turner departed, Los Angeles could certainly turn to one of their other star shortstops in the free agent market, and there have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking at Carlos Correa as their top alternative at the shortstop position.

L.A. could also potentially upgrade the infield by adding to the outfield, such as a scenario where Mookie Betts is suddenly a big part of the second base mix when Aaron Judge is signed to play right field.  The Dodgers (as is their nature with every top free agent) have at least some interest in Judge, and while both Judge or Betts could be in the same outfield if one of them occasionally plays center field, returning Betts to his old second base position would certainly bolster the infield in the event of Trea Turner’s possible departure.

Because this is the Dodgers, a scenario can’t be ruled out where both Judge and Trea Turner are signed, with Los Angeles flexing its payroll muscles once again.  That said, a case could be made that the Dodgers might see this winter as a chance to reset their luxury tax penalties.  A lot of money is coming off the books in the form of the in-house free agents, leaving around $165.4MM committed to the 2023 roster in dollars, and a projected Competitive Balance Tax bill of just under $184MM.

Obviously, the Dodgers don’t have any qualms about paying CBT penalties in general, as they’ve soared over the tax line in each of the last two seasons.  Three consecutive years of tax overages increases the penalties, however, both in terms of actual money paid on the tax bill, and (most importantly for the Dodgers) continued impact on the compensation both received and handed out regarding qualifying-offer free agents.  For instance, Trea Turner will surely be issued a QO and reject it to test the market, and if signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will receive only a pick after the fourth round of the draft as compensation.  Likewise, if the Dodgers signed Judge or another player who turned down a QO, the Dodgers would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool funds.

All of these penalties would disappear next winter if the Dodgers got under the $233MM luxury tax threshold in 2023, and the roughly $49MM of current tax wiggle room would allow for L.A. to still make some necessary roster additions.  The Dodgers can also carve out more room by trades or non-tenders, and Cody Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary stands out in this regard.

Since winning the NL MVP Award in 2019, Bellinger has hit only .203/.272/.376 with 41 homers over 1143 plate appearances.  His offense particularly cratered following shoulder surgery during the 2020-21 offseason, and other injuries have also contributed to Bellinger’s sharp decline at the plate.  Though he is still an excellent defensive center fielder and a strong baserunner, that’s a skillset that the Dodgers can replace for a lot less than $18.1MM.  (Speculatively, Friedman might look to an old friend from his days in Tampa Bay now that former Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier is entering free agency.)

There is a chance Bellinger isn’t tendered a contract and then re-signed to a lower salary, but of course he could also pursue a change of scenery with another team looking to buy low on a former MVP.  Friedman is likely to explore trade possibilities for Bellinger before the non-tender deadline, but apart from a scenario where Bellinger is swapped for another team’s undesirable contract, interested clubs might see if they can wait out the Dodgers and then pounce on Bellinger if he is indeed non-tendered.

Despite Bellinger’s struggles, his departure would leave a hole in the Los Angeles outfield.  Betts remains the cornerstone piece, and journeyman Trayce Thompson unexpectedly broke out in a huge way after being acquired in an under-the-radar pickup from the Tigers in June.  Thompson played so well that he certainly has earned a place on the 2023 team, but without much of a track record of consistent MLB success, the Dodgers might still consider him more of a part-timer than as a sure thing for everyday action.  If nothing else, Thompson might at least take over Bellinger’s role as a defensive standout, with upside at the plate.

As noted, Taylor is looking to rebound from a disappointing season that was plagued by injuries.  Joey Gallo didn’t hit well after joining the Dodgers and probably won’t be re-signed.  Kevin Pillar missed almost the entire season due to a fractured shoulder but might be a better bet to return as a depth option, since he’d only require a minor league contract.  Lux, Vargas, and rookie James Outman are other in-house names for at least occasional outfield duty, plus Busch and another top prospect in Andy Pages should get involved in the outfield mix.

Even with all these names available, it seems as if there’s enough instability here that it seems likelier that the Dodgers make a notable outside acquisition to address the outfield rather than the infield, as the infield can be more easily addressed just by “only” exercising Justin Turner’s option.  Whether that outside acquisition is a blockbuster like a Judge signing or a major trade, or maybe just more lower-tier moves to add another regular to the lineup, expect Los Angeles to check into all possibilities.

The same can be said about the starting rotation, as again, the Dodgers have some well-regarded prospects in Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot who made their Major League debuts in 2022.  Just slotting Grove and Pepiot behind Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin doesn’t leave much depth, however, and L.A. will certainly want more veteran experience in the starting five.

Clayton Kershaw rejoined the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM free agent contract last season, signing the day after the lockout ended.  Kershaw said he took the time provided by the lockout to both heal up some injuries and consider his future, and the result was an excellent (if injury-shortened) 2022 campaign.  Even as Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and health questions may limit him to around the 124 innings he has averaged over the last two seasons, Kershaw has still looked like one of the league’s best pitchers when he’s on the mound.  Barring a change of heart, Kershaw looks like a good bet to return to action in 2023, and will almost certainly do so either with the Dodgers or perhaps his hometown Rangers (who have big need in the rotation and a lot of money to offer).

Re-signing Kershaw would check off one major box for the Dodgers’ offseason, but they also have to address the potential losses of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.  Two lower-cost free agent signings from the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson pitched so well that he made the All-Star team and made himself a borderline qualifying-offer candidate, while Heaney missed time with shoulder problems but still contributed a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 innings.

Heaney’s injuries might increase chances of a return to Los Angeles, as he might not require a multi-year contract, and the Dodgers could use Pepiot and Grove as backup plans if Heaney has to miss more time.  One would imagine L.A. would also want to retain Anderson given how he broke out in Dodger Blue, but the Dodgers might also prefer to look for “the next” Tyler Anderson, i.e. another relatively inexpensive veteran who might blossom under the watch of pitching coach Mark Prior.

Between finding these hidden gems and their ability to draft and develop homegrown pitching talent, the Dodgers have been able to field a consistently strong rotation despite numerous injuries (such as the Tommy John surgery that will likely keep Walker Buehler sidelined until 2024) and off-the-field issues like Trevor Bauer’s suspension.  That said, Los Angeles always seems to be an arm or two short heading into the playoffs, as injuries have often forced the Dodgers to reshuffle both their rotation and bullpen, sometimes with disastrous consequences.

As such, it is certainly possible that the Dodgers could bolster this group with a pitcher who provides more durability than Kershaw or Heaney, and has more of an established track record than the rookies.  The free agent market offers several major names, and while there aren’t a ton of clubs with enough quality pitching to offer in trades, the Marlins do fit that description, and L.A. had some interest in right-hander Pablo Lopez at the deadline.  The Dodgers have the prospect depth to at least start a conversation about any pitcher in trade talks, though some possibilities are more realistic than others — for instance, even though the Angels’ possible sale has cast a lot of uncertainty over the franchise, it is hard to imagine the Angels dealing Shohei Ohtani to their local rivals.

Turning to the bullpen, the Dodgers figure to have some interest in re-signing Tommy Kahnle or deadline pickup Chris Martin, even though the current relief corps is pretty deep.  The biggest question is at the back of the bullpen, as it doesn’t look like saves leader Craig Kimbrel is in the team’s plans.  Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s job and wasn’t even included on the Dodgers’ NLDS roster following a season that saw him post a 3.75 ERA over 60 innings, with a lot of walks and hard contact allowed, plus a drop in his usually-elite strikeout rate.

If Los Angeles doesn’t adopt a closer committee or turn to one of its in-house options as a top choice for the ninth inning, Edwin Diaz is the top closer available in free agency if the Dodgers wanted to splurge.  Such names as David Robertson or Taylor Rogers might hold some interest for the L.A. front office, and while a reunion with Kenley Jansen is possible, it might be a little unusual to see Jansen return to the Dodgers a year after they were comfortable in letting him depart to join the Braves.

Then again, pretty much anything is on the table for a creative front office that has money to spend and prospects to trade, so another active offseason awaits for the Dodgers.  Any number of headline-grabbing moves are possible, as well as less-heralded transactions (like obtaining Thompson or Yency Almonte) that end up paying big dividends during the season.

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