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Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

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Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Padres Claim Logan Gillaspie

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The Padres have claimed right-hander Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Red Sox, per a team announcement out of Boston. The Padres have several open spots on their 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary. Boston’s 40-man roster count is now down to 38 players.

Gillaspie, 26, spent only a couple months in the Boston organization. The Sox picked him up from the division-rival Orioles via an early September waiver claim. He pitched 4 1/3 innings with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate but will now join his third organization of the year.

Baltimore signed Gillaspie as a minor league free agent prior to the 2021 season, and he was with the O’s from the time of that contract until Boston’s waiver claim. He’s missed plenty of bats in the upper minors, fanning just over a quarter of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A. In 26 1/3 MLB innings, Gillaspie has a 4.10 ERA with a much lighter 15% strikeout rate. He’s limited free passes nicely (6.7% walk rate) and averaged better than 95 mph on his heater. He’ll give the Padres some depth in the bullpen, and he still has a minor league option remaining, which gives them some additional flexibility with their relief corps next year — if Gillaspie lasts that long on the 40-man roster, of course.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agent Timeline

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An offseason defined by Shohei Ohtani’s free agency hasn’t been especially active within the first couple weeks. For most of the game’s top spenders, the winter may well be defined by whether they land the two-way superstar.

Those clubs may not have to wait long to learn the answer. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that teams involved in the Ohtani market believe the expected AL MVP might make his decision early, potentially before the Winter Meetings begin on December 4.

Despite that possibility, there haven’t been many teams substantively linked to Ohtani. That’s by design, as it seems his camp isn’t interested in spotlighting his free agent process. Passan writes that clubs pursuing the three-time All-Star believe that if word of a sit-down with Ohtani were made public, “it will be held against the team.”

Even in the absence of substantive reports of teams meeting with Ohtani, it’s not hard to identify the likelier suitors. The incumbent Angels have made no secret of their hope of keeping him around. Teams like the Padres and Cubs have been mentioned in more speculative fashion.

Passan unsurprisingly lists the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox as teams likely to be involved. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto danced around an Ohtani question at last week’s GM Meetings but acknowledged the Seattle front office would “presumably” need to try to value a free agent who is without precedent. Dipoto subsequently indicated the team was open to bringing in a designated hitter, saying they’d “love to have a full-time DH, a banger who just goes out and bangs” (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The Giants are clearly searching for a star player. Both New York franchises figure to be involved. Passan indicates that the Blue Jays, not as frequently speculated as an Ohtani landing spot because of geography, could look for a way to make a splash this offseason (although he doesn’t specifically link Toronto to Ohtani beyond what seems a loosely speculative tie). Other teams could kick around ways to get involved on a player this unique. It’d be a real surprise if he didn’t land with a club accustomed to running a player payroll in the upper third of MLB, though.

Ohtani officially rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels this afternoon. That doesn’t affect his chances of returning to Anaheim. He was never going to consider a $20.325MM salary. Having to relinquish a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus room isn’t much of a factor for a player of this magnitude. Organizations considering a record-shattering contract may know within the next few weeks whether they’ll get that opportunity.

Red Sox Select Wikelman Gonzalez, Luis Perales

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Just ahead of the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft, the Red Sox announced that they have selected the contracts of two right-handed pitchers: Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales. The club’s 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Gonzalez, 21, is the No. 9 prospect in the Red Sox system and the top-ranked pitcher, per MLB Pipeline. The righty is coming off a strong 2023 campaign in which he pitched to a 3.96 ERA in 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. He looked particularly impressive after his midseason promotion, posting a 2.42 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings pitched. Gonzalez won’t turn 22 until March, so it seems unlikely he’ll contribute to the big league team in 2024. Still, given his performance last season, it’s not hard to understand why Boston chose to protect him.

MLB Pipeline has Perales, 20, ranked one spot below Gonzalez, making him the No. 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization. The hard-throwing righty had a strong season of his own in 2023, pitching to a 3.91 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 21 starts between Low-A Salem and High-A Greenville. Perales is even less likely to play for the MLB club this coming season, but it is equally clear to see why the Red Sox made sure to keep him around.

In a slightly more surprising move, Boston chose not to protect Shane Drohan following his disappointing performance in 2023. The southpaw ranks 18th among Red Sox prospects on MLB Pipeline, but the evaluators at FanGraphs (8th) and Baseball America (9th) were more optimistic about the 24-year-old starter on their latest prospect lists. What’s more, Drohan’s age and experience make him a much more likely target for other teams in the Rule 5 draft. He made 21 appearances (19 starts) at Triple-A last season, and although the results weren’t great (6.47 ERA, 6.55 FIP), his numbers from Double-A (2.17 ERA in 11 starts from 2022-23) are indicative of the pitcher he could someday become.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Interested In Andrew Bailey As Pitching Coach

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  • Giants bullpen coach Andrew Bailey is expected to be a hot commodity on the coaching market this offseason, with Rosenthal and Kuty suggesting that he’s not only a candidate for the bench coach role with the Yankees but also the pitching coach role with both the Red Sox and Orioles. The duo suggest that Bailey could have a preference to return to the east coast after being denied permission by San Francisco to interview for a bench coach vacancy with the Mets back in 2022. The Giants hold no such power over Bailey at this point, as the 39-year-old is currently a free agent. Bailey pitched for both the Yankees and Red Sox during his big league career, which spanned eight seasons. Prior to his tenure as pitching coach in San Francisco, Bailey worked as a bullpen coach with the Angels under Ausmus during the 2019 season.

Red Sox Notes: Turner, DH, Kluber

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Veteran free agent Justin Turner was among the most reliable hitters in Boston last year, slashing a solid .275/.345/.455 with 23 home runs and a 17.6% strikeout rate. Taken together, that offensive production was 14% better than league average by measure of wRC+ despite Turner posting his highest strikeout rate since 2014 and lowest walk rate since 2016. Though Turner declined his player option with the Red Sox and decided to test the open market ahead of his age-39 season, the infielder spoke to reporters recently (as relayed by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) regarding his free agency and his desire to return to the Red Sox.

“I would love to be back and be with the Sox,” Turner said, “…what I’ve heard from all these guys is how amazing this town is when you’re making a playoff run. I want to be a part of that. It has been A-plus across the board in everything we’ve done and that’s with finishing in fifth place in the AL East. I want to know what it’s like to play in a playoff game for the Red Sox, not against them.”

Though Turner made his desire to remain in Boston clear, he also admitted that he’s fielded interest from more teams this season than he did as a free agent last year. Cotillo notes that the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Angels all made offers to the veteran last year. The Diamondbacks are once again rumored to be interested in Turner’s services this offseason, though it’s unclear what other clubs may have interest in Turner this offseason. That uncertainty surrounds the Red Sox, themselves, as the club’s level of interest in Turner for 2024 and beyond isn’t entirely clear.

MassLive’s Sean McAdam recently suggested that the Red Sox “may be reluctant” to offer Turner a a two-year guarantee this offseason, noting that newly-minted chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has spoken of the DH as a way to rest players. While McAdam notes that Breslow would not rule out having one player serve as the club’s regular DH, a desire to utilize players such as Masataka Yoshida at DH could limit the club’s interest in a reunion with Turner, who played 98 games at DH and combined for less than 400 innings of work in the field split between first, second, and third base in 2023.

Turner isn’t the only newly-minted free agent to recently discuss his future after spending 2023 in Boston. Veteran right-hander Corey Kluber has returned to the open market after a tough season in Boston where he posted a 7.04 ERA (65 ERA+) with a 7.11 FIP in 55 innings of work while striking out just 16.3% of batters faced. On top of the brutal on-field performance, Kluber battled shoulder injuries throughout the year that ultimately left him sidelined for the season by late June. Kluber was noncommittal when asked if he intends to continue his playing career in 2024, with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relaying that the veteran righty simply responded to the question with “we’ll see.”

Given his deep struggles in Boston this season, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the sides coming together on a reunion even if Kluber decides to pitch next season. While the Red Sox are expected to make pitching help a priority this offseason, the club already has right-handers Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock as starting caliber options alongside Chris Sale for the middle-to-back of the club’s rotation, and the addition of Kluber at this stage of his career would be unlikely to move the needle for a club more in need of impact than depth in the starting rotation.

Brutal as the 2023 season was for Kluber, the righty was one of the best pitchers in the game not long ago. The 37-year-old’s illustrious career includes two AL Cy Young awards and an ERA title in 2017. While Kluber is certainly not the same pitcher he was back then, he was an effective back-end starter for the Rays and Yankees the past two seasons and could potentially draw interest from a club in need of depth this offseason, should he prove healthy enough to continue his playing career.

Red Sox Sign Mark Contreras To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed outfielder Mark Contreras to a minor league contract, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports.  Contreras is changing teams for the first time in his pro career, as he had been a member of the Twins organization since he was selected in the ninth round of the 2017 draft, and until Minnesota released him in August.

That time in the Twin Cities did result in Contreras’ first stint as a big leaguer, as he played in 28 games for Minnesota during the 2022 season, hitting .121/.148/.293 over 61 plate appearances.  This lackluster output and the Twins’ crowded outfield picture meant that Contreras didn’t get any more MLB playing time in 2023, plus he didn’t force the issue by batting a modest .274/.352/.418 over 381 PA for Triple-A St. Paul last season.

Contreras (who turns 29 in January) has had a lot of problems avoiding strikeouts during his pro career, but he has posted decent numbers at the Triple-A level.  A solid defender who can play all three outfield positions, Contreras’ speed has helped both his defensive efforts and his offensive threat level, as he has stolen 93 bases in 126 chances during his minor league career.

With two minor league option years remaining, Contereras gives the Red Sox some possible extra depth to be kept at Triple-A should a need arise in the outfield.  Since the Twins outrighted him off their 40-man roster in August, Contreras now has the ability to reject any future outright assignments in favor of free agency, giving him a bit of extra leverage for the remainder of his career.

A Possible Yankees/Red Sox Trade That Makes Sense For Both Clubs

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One of the big offseason questions for the Yankees is how to proceed with Gleyber Torres. The veteran second baseman is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $15.3MM salary in his final year of arbitration.

That’s still solid value for the team’s second-best hitter. Torres had a strong 2023 campaign, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 home runs across 672 plate appearances. With 23-year-old Oswald Peraza having reached the MLB level, there’s a case for the Yankees to move Torres for help elsewhere on the roster.

Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic reported on Wednesday that the Yankees had not engaged Torres’ camp on extension talks. Certainly, it’s early enough in the winter that they could still do so. Yet there hasn’t seemed much urgency on the part of the organization to keep Torres beyond his control window. During 2023 Spring Training, the infielder replied “I wish” when asked by ESPN’s Marly Rivera whether there had been any extension talks before he and the team agreed to a one-year arbitration deal.

The absence of an extension doesn’t mean the Yankees need to make a trade. They could retain Torres for a final season and potentially make him a qualifying offer next winter. Since they’re likely to exceed the luxury tax in 2024, the compensation pick would presumably fall after the fourth round if Torres declines a QO and signs with another team. New York could find a more valuable return this winter if they feel comfortable with Peraza stepping into an everyday second base role.

One potential trade partner: the archrival Red Sox. Rob Bradford of WEEI wrote yesterday that Boston identified Torres as a trade target during the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that the Yankees have shown prior interest in Boston right fielder Alex Verdugo, whom they could again pursue this offseason.

There’s merit to a potential swap involving Torres and Verdugo. Each is one year from free agency. Verdugo, as a left-handed hitting outfielder who rarely strikes out, is the type of player that Yankees GM Brian Cashman is openly targeting. The Red Sox have Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida alongside Verdugo as lefty-swinging outfielders. Boston’s first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated this week they’ve already received interest in Verdugo from other teams.

Torres is the better player. Verdugo is coming off a .264/.324/.421 showing and has been a roughly league average hitter in three straight seasons. He has solid grades in right field but isn’t a fit in center. Torres has greater positional value as a middle infielder, even if he’s not a particularly strong defensive second baseman.

That makes Verdugo a little more affordable financially, however. Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM salary, roughly $6MM below the Torres estimate. The difference might not be enough for the Yankees to accept a direct one-for-one swap, but they’re close enough in trade value that it’s not hard to see the match on paper.

It should be noted that Boston’s reported interest in Torres this past season came under previous chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Breslow, hired three weeks ago, may have a different evaluation. With a lackluster second base group headlined by Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez, the desire for help at the position remains. Breslow indicated this week that the team could look for a second baseman, ideally one who hits from the right side. Bradford writes that some members of the Boston organization still view Torres as a good fit. With middle infield prospects Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer likely one season from MLB readiness, a veteran bridge at the position aligns with the organizational timeline.

The biggest obstacle may just be the acrimony between the organizations. The Red Sox and Yankees are unsurprisingly infrequent trade partners. They’ve lined up on deals just three times in the past 25 years. New York acquired minor league outfielder Greg Allen this past May. The Sox essentially “bought” prospect Frank German by taking on the Adam Ottavino contract in 2021. The teams swapped struggling veterans Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson at the 2014 deadline.

A deal involving Verdugo and Torres (or even a trade featuring just one of the two) would be much more notable than any of those transactions. There’s an argument that each player is a better fit for the other team’s roster as currently constructed. With both clubs trying to jump from the bottom half of the AL East back to the postseason, it’s one of various paths they could consider in the weeks to come.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

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