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Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Chris Davis

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The Orioles have agreed to a one-year, $10.35MM contract with Chris Davis in order to avoid arbitration, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. His deal also contains performance bonuses (Twitter links). Davis is represented by Scott Boras.

Davis had been projected to earn an even $10MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz after he took a massive step forward in 2013. He lands just above that mark with his new deal. As Swartz explained in his breakdown of the Davis arbitration case, the slugging first baseman looked primed to break the record for a second-year arbitration raise, and he did just that by garnering a bump of over $7MM.

It is not hard to see how Davis managed to command such a massive increase. As Swartz explained, arbitration raise are generally determined by reference only to platform-year stats, and Davis had quite the platform year. His massive home run (53) and RBI (138) totals and strong .286 batting average, combined with ample playing time, positioned him perfectly.

Davis has one more season of arbitration eligibility remaining before becoming eligible for free agency before the 2016 season.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

East Notes: Braves, Price, Lester, Machado, Cishek

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The Braves' front office has a busy day on its hands, notes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter). Atlanta has seven arbitration eligible players they'll hope to take care of today: Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Chris Johnson and Jordan Schafer. He also tweets that a multi-year deal is unlikely to be reached with any of the seven. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweeted earlier today, the Braves are one of several "file and trial" teams that either settle before exchanging figures or say they will head to a trial, which means GM Frank Wren and his staff will have their hands full today. Here's more out of baseball's Eastern divisions…

  • Rays ace David Price knows there's still a chance that he will be traded even after agreeing to a one-year, $14MM contract to avoid arbitration, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. However, Price wants to remain with the Rays and says that the closer Spring Training gets, the more confident he is that he will stay. Price said that he can't imagine being traded once camp opens, and he thinks making it to February would be a good indicator that he won't be dealt: "Probably Feb. 1 would be a time period that I think would kind of let me know that I would be here."
  • Clayton Kershaw's record extension will impact future deals for starters, but its impact on Red Sox lefty Jon Lester is minimal, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Lauber writes that there are no other players in Kershaw's stratosphere, noting that Lester compares more favorably to Cole Hamels. Boston will likely approach Lester about an extension during Spring Training, he adds.
  • The Orioles and Manny Machado received good news yesterday following Machado's visit with Dr. Neal ElAttrache, as one source told the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly that Machado is six to eight weeks ahead of schedule. That would place Machado ready to contribute on Opening Day, Connolly notes (Twitter links).
  • Signing closer Steve Cishek to a multi-year deal has not been considered as a serious option by the Marlins, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports in his latest Marlins Inbox piece.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Bud Norris

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7:51pm: Norris will earn $5.3MM on a one-year deal in 2014, marking a $2.3MM raise from his $3MM salary in 2013, Connolly tweets.

5:16pm: The Orioles and right-hander Bud Norris have avoided arbitration, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter link). Terms of Norris' deal remain unknown at this time, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him to earn an even $5MM in arbitration heading into the 2014 season.

Norris, 29 in March, posted a 4.80 ERA in 50 2/3 innings for the Orioles after being acquired from the Astros in exchange for L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader and a 2014 competitive balance draft pick. Overall, the big righty pitched to a 4.18 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 40.2 percent ground-ball rate. Though last season was his first in the American League, Norris managed to limit homers more effectively than he ever has and also matched his career-best in BB/9 rate at 3.4. He's controllable through the 2015 season.

With Norris taken care of, the Orioles have five players remaining, including their most high profile cases. As can be seen in MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker, Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette still needs to come to an agreement with Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Tommy Hunter, Troy Patton and Brian Matusz.

AL East Notes: Carp, Lester, Arroyo, Jays, Rodriguez

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Here's the latest from around the American League East:

  • Red Sox first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp could still be dealt before Opening Day, reports Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com. Though Boston has reportedly held out for a substantial return for Carp, and the club values the depth he provies, he might be worth more to other clubs who could deploy him more regularly.
  • Meanwhile, extension talks still have yet to begin between Jon Lester and the Boston front office, reports WEEI.com's Rob Bradford. Clayton Kershaw's extension does not necessarily serve as a comparable for Lester's purposes, says Bradford, but his absence from the open market could have an impact.
  • The Orioles are having ongoing discussions with free agent starter Bronson Arroyo, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). We learned recently that Baltimore had active interest in the veteran.
  • Confirming recent reports, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said today that the price of pitchers on the free agent and trade market remains too high for the club's liking, Sportsnet.ca's Shi Davidi tweets.
  • Recent comments from Alex Rodriguez and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner indicate that both sides believe a return to the field in 2015 is a realistic possibility. Rodriguez sounds as though he has accepted the likelihood that he will ultimately sit out the entire 2014 campaign, but a spokesman said Rodriguez would "get ready for 2015 should the judge rule against him" in his court challenge against his full-season suspension. Steinbrenner, meanwhile, said that Rodriguez is "an asset" on the field and insisted the club would take a business approach to dealing with Rodriguez's situation going forward.

Quick Hits: Phils, O’Flaherty, Maine, Guerrier, Cotts

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Somewhat remarkably, both of the Phillies' last two GMs and last two managers are still employed by the organization, observes Justin Klugh of Philly.com. Meanwhile, the club only recently hired an analytical employee, and it remains unclear how much pull that position holds. While keeping the old guard around is a nice touch, says Klugh, the club should make a stronger commitment to progress. Here are more notes from around the league:

  • There is now only a "slim chance" that southpaw reliever Eric O'Flaherty will return to the Braves, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The issue, Bowman indicates, is that Atlanta is not as interested in working O'Flaherty into their plans as other clubs. Specifically, Bowman names the Orioles as a contender for the lefty. 
  • The Braves may have found yet another diamond in the rough with minor league free agent signees Luis Vasquez and Lay Batista, writes Bill Ballew of Baseball America. "We identified Vasquez and Batista as potential high-octane arms who could contribute in Atlanta as soon as 2014," said assistant GM John Coppolella.
  • Lefty Scott Maine is reportedly throwing well in Puerto Rico and beginning to draw interest from clubs, reports MLBTR's Zach Links (via Twitter). He could sign with a club as soon as this week, Links adds. Maine has a 5.59 career ERA in 46 2/3 big league innings. He spent time in the Marlins' system last year.
  • Another right-handed reliever, Matt Guerrier, is expected to audition for MLB clubs in the next ten days or so, Links further tweets. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN recently reported that the Twins could be interested in a reunion.
  • The $2.2MM contract agreed upon yesterday between the Rangers and reliever Neal Cotts is fully guaranteed, Links tweets. As Links observes, Cotts' representatives at Pro Star Management did well to get their client a guarantee given his injury history.

Orioles To Sign Alfredo Aceves

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THURSDAY, 10:07am: Aceves gets a $35K signing bonus with his deal, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The incentives are tied to appearances and games started, Sherman adds.

The contract also includes two opt-out clauses, Sherman further reports (on Twitter). If he is not on the MLB roster by March 28, he must be released within 48 hours. Likewise, if Aceves is not on the MLB roster as of June 30, he must be released within 72 hours.

WEDNESDAY, 2:47pm: Aceves would make a guaranteed $1.2MM if he makes the Orioles roster, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. His deal also includes incentives that could raise its value to $3MM.

2:19pm: The Orioles have reached agreement with free agent pitcher Alfredo Aceves on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, reports MLBTR's Tim Dierkes (via Twitter). Aceves could work from the pen or make a run at a rotation spot, Dierkes adds. The righty is represented by O'Connell Sports Management.

Aceves, 31, will stay in the American League East after spending three seasons apiece with the Yankees and Red Sox. Last year, throwing for Boston, Aceves managed a 4.86 ERA in 37 innings, including six starts and five relief appearances. In 51 innings at Triple-A, mostly as a starter, Aceves notched a 4.06 ERA.

Aceves has had several very productive stretches throughout his career — including a 114-inning, 2.61 ERA campaign in 2011 — but has not yet harnessed his talent consistently. In 2012, his last full season of MLB action, Aceves started out as Boston's closer (he notched 25 saves on the year) but ended the campaign with a 5.36 ERA in 84 innings. Nevertheless, his FIP (4.33) and xFIP (4.36) put a more positive spin on that year, as does his solid 8.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. 

Mark Reynolds Weighing Offers, Expected To Sign Soon

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Free agent corner infielder/designated hitter Mark Reynolds has several offers in hand and is likely to take one by the end of the week, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. As Kilgore notes, the Nationals are among the teams to have expressed interest in the slugging 30-year-old. 

Last we heard, the Nats were joined by four other teams that were in on Reynolds: the Rangers, Twins, Orioles, and Yankees. Though Reynolds was let go by the Indians after a rough .215/.307/.373 triple-slash over his first 384 plate appearances of 2013, he was better upon joining the Yankees. In 120 plate appearances for New York, Reynolds slashed .236/.300/.455.

Reynolds has prodigious power, having hit at least twenty home runs over the last six seasons. But with that strength comes a tendency to swing and miss; Reynolds has led the league in K's in four of his seven seasons. Reynolds has also graded out poorly as a fielder as well, though his baserunning metrics see him as average in that regard. It is worth noting, also, that Reynolds has a relatively minor career platoon split (.777 OPS and 147 home runs vs. righties; .834 OPS and 55 home runs vs. lefties).

Minor Moves: Vizcaino, Bond, Omograsso

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Here are today's minor transactions, with the latest at the top of the page…

  • The Orioles have inked reliever Luis Vizcaino to a minor league deal, the club announced. Vizcaino, 38, has eleven seasons of MLB pitching under his belt, but last appeared in the bigs back in 2009 and had his career derailed by an achilles tear and PED suspension. Vizcaino reemerged last year with Yucatan of the Mexican League, notching a 1.40 ERA in 45 innings and racking up 25 saves. 
  • Baltimore has also signed infielder Brock Bond to a minor league deal, the club further announced. Bond had spent his entire career in the Giants system. Last year, CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly profiled the switch-hitting Bond, whose career minor league OBP has hovered around the .400 mark. The 27-year-old spent most of 2010-12 at Triple-A and competed for a roster spot in Spring Training last season. But he started off in the lower minors after a late-spring oblique injury, and never worked his way back up the ladder. After slashing .332/.422/.398 at Triple-A in 2012, Bond ended up with a .240/.339/.324 line at High A last year.
  • The White Sox have agreed to terms with right-hander Brian Omogrosso to a minor league contract, MLB.com's Scott Merkin reports (Twitter link).  Omogrosso elected to become a free agent in October after the White Sox outrighted him off their 40-man roster.  Omogrosso, 29, posted a 9.37 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 1.78 K/BB rate over in 16 1/3 relief innings with Chicago last season.

AL East Notes: Price, Tanaka, Yankees, Almanzar

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When the offseason began, many speculated that David Price's time with the Rays was coming to an end, as the ace southpaw would be traded at the height of his remaining value (two years of team control) and Tampa Bay could save money and add even more quality prospects to their system.  The perception amongst rival executives now, however, is that Price will stay put through the coming season, ESPN's Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column.  "Ninety percent chance he stays," one rival executive said. "The [trade] market hasn't materialized."  MLBTR readers seem to agree with that sentiment — according to a recent poll, less than 31% of respondees feel that Price will be pitching elsewhere by Opening Day.

Here's some more news from around the AL East…

  • Also from Olney's piece, some executives believe the Yankees and Dodgers will be the two final players in the race for Masahiro Tanaka.  The Yankees have the greater need for pitching and perhaps even more pressure to sign Tanaka now that most of Alex Rodriguez's salary is off the books for 2014.  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have shown they'll pay any price for a player they want, and are "more shameless in their bidding," according to some rival executives.
  • If the Yankees can't sign Tanaka, they could again focus on staying under the $189MM luxury tax limit, WEEI.com's Rob Bradford speculates.  Rodriguez's suspension could make the Yankees' payroll decision more difficult, as had A-Rod's 2014 salary still been fully owed, New York could've added Tanaka and other needed upgrades with the assumption that they'd be well over the $189MM threshold.  If Tanaka signs elsewhere, however, Bradford isn't sure that the Yankees would be willing to pay another big luxury tax penalty for one of the other big free agent starters (Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana or Matt Garza) and they surely wouldn't go over $189MM just to sign a closer.
  • If recent signees Delmon Young and Alexi Casilla make the Orioles' roster, it could hurt their chances of keeping Rule 5 Draft selection Michael Almanzar, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes.  Almanzar was taken by the O's from the Red Sox in last month's draft, and if Almanzar isn't on the Major League roster for the entire 2014 season, Baltimore has to offer him back to Boston for $25K.
  • CSNBaltimore.com's Rich Dubroff predicts 24 of the 25 players who he feels will make the Orioles' Opening Day roster.  The 25th spot is being left open for a starting pitcher from outside the organization, as Dubroff feels the O's will add a starter between now and the start of Spring Training.

Minor League Free Agents Finding Major League Deals

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40-man roster spots are a precious commodity in Major League Baseball.  Many of the transactions on MLB Trade Rumors stem from this fact, as teams decide which players will occupy those last few spots.  The roster squeeze prevents many recognizable free agents from securing a Major League contract each offseason, from useful veterans like Jason Kubel, Shaun Marcum, and Jamey Carroll to former top prospects like Trevor Crowe and Taylor Teagarden.  Those players, despite a decent amount of name value, signed minor league deals.  However, a new trend emerged this offseason, as eight players with scant Major League experience signed Major League deals: Francisco Pena (Royals), Kelvin De La Cruz (Orioles), Edgmer Escalona (Orioles), Erik Cordier (Giants), Francisco Peguero (Orioles), David Cooper (Indians), Angel Castro (Cardinals), and David Adams (Indians).  Four of the players have no Major League experience at all, while none of the eight have more than 100 innings or 226 plate appearances in the bigs.

Upside As A Separator

The average age of these eight players is about 27 years old, significantly younger than a standard free agent who signs a Major League deal.  Many of these seven come with top prospect pedigrees.  Peguero, an outfielder signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, was ranked as the team's fourth-best prospect prior to the 2011 season by Baseball America.  As recently as last year, Peguero was ranked eighth by BA, who said he "still has the most exciting combination of speed and power in the system, along with perhaps the best bat speed."  He went on to hit .316/.354/.408 in 70 Triple-A games to earn his second big league call-up with the Giants, though he received only six starts in September.

The Giants were faced with a difficult situation.  With Peguero having used his four minor league options, they risked losing him to a waiver claim if they weren't willing to put him on the 25-man roster out of spring training in 2014.  The Giants decided to remove Peguero from the 40-man roster by designating him for assignment in late November, cutting ties by non-tendering him five days later.  As agent Dan Rosquete tells it, "The minute the Giants said 'Hey, we're taking him off the roster,' they backed it up with, 'Well, we want him back, what's it going to take?'"  After Peguero's frustration from the lack of opportunity at the end of the season with the Giants, Rosquete's primary goal was to secure playing time for his client in 2014.  Interestingly, the Giants designated Peguero for assignment in part to make room for Cordier, a big arm who had become a six-year minor league free agent after pitching in relief for the Pirates' Triple-A team.  Cordier is one of four six-year minor league free agents this offseason to sign a Major League deal with no Major League experience.

The Orioles swooped in with an appreciation for Peguero's tools, an opportunity for playing time, and a Major League offer.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette "could tell me more about my client than I knew about him," jokes Rosquete.  "Dan Duquette called me and said 'Listen, I'm looking at everything and I can see this guy as an everyday outfielder.'"  In an email, Duquette tells MLBTR Peguero "has good talent as he is a lifetime .300 plus hitter in the minors and [is a] very good defensive player."  As a group, these eight Major League signings possess upside rarely found affordably in free agency. For example, the Indians landed a former first round draft pick in first baseman Cooper, the Orioles added a strikeout lefty who has touched 94 miles per hour in De La Cruz, and the Giants picked up a power reliever who can touch 97 in Cordier.  Plus, all of them are considered to be near big league ready.  

Contracts Dictated By Strong Markets

The majority of the eight players were six-year minor league free agents, with a handful of non-tenders mixed in.  Ultimately, teams wouldn't give Major League deals and the accompanying 40-man roster spot to this level of player unless it was necessary to get the deal done.  Duquette, who authored three of these eight big league deals with Peguero, De La Cruz, and Escalona, notes, "In each case other clubs were offering Major League contracts, so you could say that the Major League contract was required by the market."  

The only way for an agent to really know what it will take is to let the market play out.  Paul Kinzer represents the 24-year-old Pena, who became a six-year minor league free agent after 2013 when the Mets decided not to add him to their 40-man roster.  "I don't know if anybody expected the kind of response we got on him," says Kinzer of Pena.  Kinzer says the strong demand for catchers worked in Pena's favor.  Three teams were close on the player, and the Royals had to offer a Major League deal to separate themselves.  Cooper signed a minor league deal with the Indians in August after recovering from career-threatening herniated disk in his chest cavity.  He opted for free agency at the end of the month, and demand was strong enough that the Indians re-signed him to a Major League deal.  The Rays put pressure on the Tribe by also reportedly making a Major League offer.

A Possible Trend

Though we don't have complete data on the number of inexperienced players signing Major League deals each offseason, the eight such contracts from 2013-14 is definitely the highest number in recent years.  Kinzer, who by his recollection has done three or four of these types of deals in his career, "absolutely" sees a trend toward more of them.  He explains, "Teams can go out and spend a little more on these guys and sometimes get a better return on their money than going with an older, veteran guy."  By "spend a little more," Kinzer is referring to the cost of a roster spot, since none of these contracts were for more than $75K above the $500K league minimum.  The going rate for a veteran backup catcher this winter has been in the $1-3MM range.

Teams are continually trying to find outside-the-box means of acquiring younger talent.  Showing a greater willingness to barter with a 40-man roster spot in November and early December, when most clubs are not near capacity, seems savvy.  The trend could truly explode if more success stories emerge.

The biggest recent success story is the signing of lefty Jose Quintana by the White Sox after the 2011 season.  Quintana was signed by the Mets out of Colombia for $40K in 2006, and signed with the Yankees about a year later after the Mets released him due to a violation of the Minor League Baseball drug policy.  Baseball America never ranked Quintana among the Yankees' top 30 prospects, and he became a six-year minor league free agent after '11.  GM Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman of the New York Post in June 2012, "We looked at him as a fringy prospect. We offered him a minor league contract to stay, but not a 40-man roster position. We didn’t feel he was ahead of other guys we gave spots to. It was a numbers game, but right now it does not look like a good decision."  White Sox scouts Joe Siers and Daraka Shaheed "made him stand out on the six-year free-agent list," then-assistant GM Rick Hahn told Sherman, and the Sox and GM Kenny Williams separated themselves from the pack by offering Quintana a Major League deal.  Fresh off 200 innings of 3.51 ball in 2013, Quintana is a scouting success for Chicago and the best recent example of a Major League deal paying off big for a player with no experience at the game's highest level.  

Quintana, who would go a long way toward stabilizing the Yankees' current rotation, is one that got away.  The team had a firsthand look at the southpaw for five years, but preferred to keep the roster spot open when he reached minor league free agency.  Of the eight who signed this offseason, seven landed with new clubs.  Time will tell whether the Mets, Dodgers, Pirates, Rockies, Giants, and Yankees will regret letting these players go, but if more credible big leaguers emerge from the group, it's likely we'll continue to see an increase in Major League deals for minor league free agents.

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