Royals Rumors

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

By Steve Adams | October 25, 2016 at 9:36pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a pair of World Series appearances in 2014-15, the 2016 Royals fell shy of a postseason berth and now face considerable payroll questions as the core of their championship-winning roster stands one year from free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Ian Kennedy, RHP: $62.5MM through 2020 (can opt out of contract after 2017)
Alex Gordon, LF: $60MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 mutual option)
Salvador Perez, C: $46.5MM through 2021
Yordano Ventura, RHP: $20.25MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option)
Joakim Soria, RHP: $18MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
Lorenzo Cain, CF: $11MM through 2017
Mike Moustakas, 3B; $8.7MM through 2017
Jason Vargas, LHP: $8MM through 2017
Chris Young, RHP: $7.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)
Mike Minor, LHP: $5.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
Dillon Gee (5.108) – $3.6MM
Tim Collins (5.097) – $1.5MM
Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
Daniel Nava (5.024) – $1.5MM
Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM
Tony Cruz (4.147) – $1.0MM
Non-tender candidates: Gee, Collins, Nava, Cruz

Contract Options

Kendrys Morales, DH/1B: $11MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Wade Davis, RHP: $10MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)
Edinson Volquez, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)
Kris Medlen, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
Luke Hochevar, RHP: $7MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
Alcides Escobar, SS: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
Predictions: Team exercises option on Morales, but Morales declines; team exercises option on Davis; team declines option on Volquez; team declines option on Medlen; team declines option on Hochevar; team exercises option on Escobar

Other Financial Commitments

Omar Infante, 2B: $10MM through 2017 (was released in 2016)

Free Agents

Drew Butera, Peter Moylan

Royals Depth Chart; Royals Payroll Information

The Royals’ back-to-back World Series appearances revitalized Kansas City baseball, but as is often the case, success proved difficult to sustain. With an 81-81 finish on the season and players like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar all set to hit free agency following the 2017 season, the Royals have a plethora of questions on their hands.

First and foremost is whether the team can afford to make any significant additions this winter. General manager Dayton Moore flatly said that his expectation was that the team’s payroll would “regress” in 2017 after opening the 2016 campaign with a franchise-record mark of nearly $132MM. Meanwhile, team owner David Glass was less definitive when asked about reducing payroll, somewhat nebulously suggesting that it’s impossible to know where the 2017 payroll will sit because no one yet knows what opportunities will be presented in the coming offseason. As noted in the above-linked payroll breakdown at Roster Resource, though, the Royals already project to have a $139MM payroll to open next season. The notion of adding any significant pieces is somewhat difficult to anticipate, then, unless Glass is comfortable with the ledger rising into the $140MMs and possibly the $150MMs.

As such, the question becomes one of whether the Royals will actually subtract some pieces from the 2016 roster. Davis’ name was mentioned frequently in July before a forearm strain shelved him through the non-waiver trade deadline, and Kansas City has reportedly already received some early interest in its closer. Late-inning relief help is one of the few commodities that is in relatively large supply this winter — Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are all free agents, and the market also bears some quality setup options as well — but Davis’ contractual status is likely an attractive feature. Many teams will be reluctant to pay the record-breaking prices that the top names will command. Acquiring Davis would yield a premium relief arm with only a one-year, $10MM commitment required. Of the core pieces that could potentially leave after the 2017 season, Davis arguably has the most trade appeal if Moore and his staff do shed some big league talent/payroll.

Certainly, teams would have interest in Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer and Escobar, but there are concerns across the board with that quartet. Cain missed more than two months of the season and ended the year on the shelf with a wrist strain. Moustakas didn’t play the final four months due to a torn ACL. Hosmer’s productivity tanked in the second half, and he’s projected to earn a hefty $13.3MM next year. Escobar continued to impress with the glove and on the bases, but he’s a defense-first player with no power and sub-.300 OBP skills. Looking elsewhere, Ian Kennedy had a strong finish but is on a contract that is teeming with downside (he can opt out after the 2017 season if he performs well but would be owed a total of $62.5MM over the next four years if he struggles and forgoes that opportunity). Jason Vargas’ $8MM salary is fairly manageable, but he missed the majority of 2016 recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Those names could all come up in trade talks this winter, but it’s also important to note that a full-on fire sale doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the Royals. After all, improved performance from Alex Gordon and returns to health for any combination of Cain, Davis, Moustakas and Vargas would represent an immediate means of improvement in Kansas City. And with the Tigers suggesting that they’ll trim payroll while the White Sox and Twins continue to struggle to put contending teams on the field, there’s certainly reason for Moore and his staff to believe that this core is capable of a final push for the division in 2017. If it doesn’t go as planned, plenty of those names would make appealing deadline chips, after all.

On that note, there’s no more obvious area of need for the 2017 Royals than in the rotation. Breakout star Danny Duffy figures to lead that group, and he’ll be joined by Yordano Ventura, Kennedy, Vargas and one of Chris Young, Mike Minor or sophomore Matt Strahm, who wowed in the bullpen but is viewed as a starter in the long haul. Dillon Gee, too, could factor into the mix, but he’s coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and could be a non-tender candidate.

Unfortunately for the Royals, they’re faced with the same dilemma that is facing most other clubs; everyone needs starting pitching, but the free-agent market is relatively barren. Despite that fact, Kansas City reportedly plans to opt against investing an additional $7MM into Edinson Volquez and will elect a $3MM buyout over exercising his $10MM option. That may indicate that the team doesn’t plan to spend big money on starting pitching, so minor league deals or lower-cost targets like Tommy Milone, Bud Norris or Jhoulys Chacin could be in order. Alternatively, the Royals could look to sign a pitcher to a two-year pact but heavily backload the deal so as to only commit a few million in 2017 while saving the bulk of the payout for the 2018 season, when the books clear up.

The other half of the pitching staff will need some work, too — especially if the Royals do ultimately find an offer for Davis that is to their liking. Kelvin Herrera is a dominant late-inning arm, but Joakim Soria’s return to the team has been somewhat of a flop so far. Strahm could reprise his role if the Royals feel they have ample rotation depth, and the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd recently highlighted fast-rising prospect Josh Staumont as a potential midseason factor from the right side. Brian Flynn proved a useful southpaw (2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings), but the Royals are going to need to find some arms either within their system or late in the offseason. From Kansas City’s vantage point, there’s merit to the idea of waiting out the market and snatching up one or even two of the middle relievers/setup men that fall through the cracks while waiting for bigger deals that never materialize. It’s also worth noting that there’s reportedly been mutual interest between the Royals and righty Peter Moylan about a new contract, so he could return on a one-year deal.

Looking around the diamond, the Royals are more set. Salvador Perez remains one of the best catchers in baseball, Hosmer is locked in at first base despite his second-half collapse, Moustakas will return to the hot corner and Escobar is penciled in at shortstop (once his option is exercised). Gordon will hope for better results at the plate in the second season of his now-troublesome-looking four-year, $72MM deal, and Cain will continue to hold down the fort in center field (though there’s been some talk of occasional time in right to help keep his hamstring healthier). With Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando representing options for the remaining outfield spot, the Royals don’t necessarily need to look there, although an upgrade to the right-handed side of the platoon wouldn’t hurt. Orlando is one baseball’s least disciplined hitters and owes his solid batting line almost entirely to a .380 BABIP that he can’t be expected to repeat. Dyson, meanwhile, doesn’t hit much but is a defensive wizard and provides huge value on the bases, which led to 3.1 rWAR and fWAR. If he can maintain 2016’s K/BB improvements, he’s a solid and affordable option.

Second base and DH are the other two potential spots to add some talent, but the Royals do have options at second in Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield and Raul Mondesi Jr. (though the latter of that group seems likely to head to Triple-A for continued work at shortstop so he can prepare to take over for Escobar at shortstop in 2018). Like Orlando, Merrifield got by with some significant BABIP fortune (.361) but showed little plate discipline and virtually no power. Colon’s glove can handle the job, but his bat looked an awful lot like that of Omar Infante last season, whom the Royals released midway through his ill-fated four-year deal. Kansas City would be a nice fit for Chase Utley on a one-year deal, but the Royals could also hope to snatch a veteran second baseman late in the winter on a minor league deal or a lower-cost one-year pact.

As for the DH slot, the first question facing the Royals will be whether to tender a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales. Given the financial uncertainties surrounding the roster, that seems unlikely, as adding a $17.2MM commitment for a strict DH would shoot the team’s estimated 2017 payroll to nearly $160MM. The free-agent market does feature a number of somewhat redundant first base/DH types; Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison and even Ryan Howard are all available, and it’s unlikely that they’ll all find lucrative deals. Grabbing one of those players on an affordable one-year pact makes some sense, but the DH spot could simply be kept open to help Moustakas and others get some days off from fielding. That would not only help to keep them healthier and also give the Royals a means by which Cheslor Cuthbert could get into the lineup, though the 24-year-old did fade down the stretch.

Ultimately, the Royals are in a somewhat unenviable spot — stuck in the middle between contention and a need to rebuild. They probably feel this is their last shot at contending with this core, but there are myriad holes throughout the lineup and few ways to patch them without sending payroll soaring into uncharted and unsustainable territory. The Royals reportedly operated at a loss this season, so tacking on tens of millions more to the payroll isn’t a sound business decision. But, their means of plugging holes with homegrown talent took a hit when they used a solid-but-not-overly-deep farm system to acquire Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist in 2015. Those trades subtracted four pitchers — Sean Manaea, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb — that could otherwise be immediate rotation options for a club that now finds itself with an unreliable mix of starters. You’ll never hear the Royals or their fans complain about it, of course, as the 2015 World Series outweighs any long-term troubles for the franchise. Nonetheless, a poor start to the 2017 season could be the precursor for a summer sale, and even if the Royals are able to contend in the AL Central next year, this is a franchise that is destined for a significant amount of turnover beginning next winter, at the latest, when its core hits the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Holland, Rondon, White Sox

By Steve Adams | October 24, 2016 at 10:02am CDT

Though he wouldn’t comment on the possibility of an offseason reunion, Royals GM Dayton Moore spoke highly of former Kansas City closer Greg Holland last week, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “Greg Holland is one of the very best and most talented relief pitchers that I’ve been around,” said Moore of the free-agent righty. “The success of our bullpen is a direct correlation to his toughness and his competitive spirit. So we admire him as a person and a pitcher.” Holland didn’t sign anywhere this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, and Dodd outlines the potential obstacles that stand in the way of a reunion, again mentioning the Royals’ potential payroll crunch as well as uncertainty surrounding Holland’s health. A low-cost one-year deal with Luke Hochevar could also be pursued, Dodd writes, though Hochevar is coming off surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Dodd also lists young righty Josh Staumont as a potential bullpen darkhorse for the Royals at some point in 2017.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/21/16

By Jeff Todd | October 21, 2016 at 3:32pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves, with all links to the Twitter feed of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.

The Braves have signed lefty Sam Freeman to a minor league pact. Presumably, he’ll have at least some reasonable shot at pushing for a spot in the organization’s bullpen pecking order — if not even a big league job out of camp. The 29-year-old was rather productive from 2013 through 2015, posting a 2.74 ERA over 88 2/3 total innings, though organizations have never full trusted him with a locked-down MLB relief role. And last year was a tough one for Freeman, who not only scuffled at Triple-A (5.20 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 over 55 1/3 innings) but was hit hard in a brief stint at the major league level with the Brewers.
Another southpaw pen candidate, Onelki Garcia, is headed to the Royals on a minor league arrangement. The 27-year-old has seen only brief MLB action (just three appearances, in fact), and did not spend any time with a major league organization last year. But he did show rather well in the competitive Mexican League, for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico. Over 33 innings, Garcia worked to a 3.82 ERA on 28 hits with 8.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9.
Promising indy ball player Dalton Wheat has had his contract purchased by the Marlins, as his former team, the Kansas City T-Bones, announced recently. According to a gripping story in the Wyandotte Daily, Wheat isn’t just an interesting player who was overlooked after a strong D-II college career, leading Baseball America to name him the top indy ball prospect. He also already has a legitimately unusual, trademark attribute that will make him a fascinating player to watch as he enters the affiliated ranks. Beyond his top-end speed and solid on-base potential, Wheat truly shows up to work — taking his turns at the plate with a pair of standard-issue work gloves rather than typical baseball batting gloves. (Yes, the Wyandotte Daily provides a great photo.) Wheat tells a fan on Twitter that he’ll keep chopping wood in his signature handwear so long as the Marlins allow it.

Central Notes: Cain, Bell, Cardinals, Schafer

By Steve Adams | October 20, 2016 at 1:13pm CDT

Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain says that the Grade 2 wrist strain that ended his season won’t require surgery this winter, writes Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. Cain explained that he’s already had a month of recovery under his belt and expects to have a typical offseason, as he usually doesn’t begin his primary hitting program until January anyhow. Cain moved from center field to right field late in the season after returning from a hamstring injury, but Dodd writes that the Royals’ preference is to continue to deploy him in center field, where he’s graded out as one of the game’s premier defensive players over the past few seasons. However, Dodd also notes that the Royals will consider giving Cain more time in right field next season if they believe that will help to keep him healthier.

More from the the game’s Central divisions…

While much has been made of Josh Bell’s bat, defense will be the primary focus for the promising young Pirates slugger this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. GM Neal Huntington spoke to Bell at season’s end about his desire for Bell to become proficient both at his natural position of right field and his more recently adopted position of first base. “That’s going to be my main focus, making sure I’m more versatile next year,” Bell told Berry. “You have a few guys in every lineup that can play all over the field. Those guys are your most valuable players. I hope to be one of those guys next year.” While Bell obviously won’t be lining up in the middle of the diamond anytime soon, there’s an obvious benefit to freely being able to move him between the corner outfield and first base without fretting much over defensive issues. As Berry points out, a crowded outfield and the presence of first baseman John Jaso on the roster as well could lead to an offseason trade but could also make for some nice depth in the 2017 season if everyone is retained.
A lack of bullpen depth proved to be a glaring deficiency for the Cardinals this season and must be addressed by general manager John Mozeliak over the winter, opines Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Gordon points out that with Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake, Alex Reyes, a returning Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia (whose option seems likely to be picked up) all in the rotation picture, the rotation looks to have good depth (though further depth could be added on minor league pacts or small deals this winter), but the ’pen took hits with the loss of Zach Duke and Seth Maness to Tommy John surgery. Potential replacements for Duke like Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales battled injuries this season, and Trevor Rosenthal’s inconsistencies and injury problems render him a question mark as well. Gordon calls for multiple arms capable of pitching high-leverage innings and makes his case that said relievers should be a focal point in the Cardinals’ mission to improve their run-prevention skills this winter.
Outfielder Logan Schafer, who was outrighted off the Twins’ 40-man roster earlier this week, confirmed that he’ll elect free agency to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. That was all but a foregone conclusion for a veteran of nine professional seasons that lost his roster spot. Schafer tells Berardino that the Twins “treated me well and with great respect” and says he’s open to a return, though he recognizes that they’re in for a busy offseason and he’s probably not on their list of priorities. The 30-year-old center fielder hit .238/.342/.317 in 75 PAs with the Twins after slashing .264/.340/.361 in 64 games for their Triple-A affiliate. Schafer should find the opportunity to compete for a bench spot with a big league club somewhere this winter. You can check out MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents for a refresher on who’s available this offseason.

Rule 5 Roundup

By Jeff Todd | October 18, 2016 at 8:08am CDT

We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.

Heyman’s Latest: Britton, Escobar, Desmond, Votto, Phillips, D-Backs

By Jeff Todd | October 14, 2016 at 9:43pm CDT

In addition to speaking with Orioles manager Buck Showalter about his decision not to deploy ace reliever Zach Britton in the Wild Card game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag covers a number of notable topics in his most recent column. Among the highlights with a transactional component:

Unsurprisingly, the Royals will exercise a club option over shortstop Alcides Escobar. It’s just $6.5MM (with a $500K buyout otherwise), and the club doesn’t seem willing yet to trust the job to prospect Raul Mondesi. Still the 29-year-old owns an anemic .259/.293/.335 batting line over the last two seasons; even with his typically strong defense and baserunning included, he has been a below-average regular. Escobar will have plenty to play for with free agency looming.
It’s even less surprising to hear that the Rangers intend to make a qualifying offer to Ian Desmond, the shortstop-turned-center fielder. Texas remains very high on Desmond despite his fall-off down the stretch, says Heyman, and it seems plausible to imagine a reunion. The $17.2MM QO also appears to be the right move from a market perspective, as Desmond ought to be able to command a strong multi-year deal even after turning it down.
We’ve heard chatter in the past about prior talks between the Blue Jays and Reds regarding first baseman Joey Votto, and Heyman discusses it further in a separate piece. There’s nothing brewing at present, but Toronto has made clear they’d like to be involved if Cincinnati undertakes any chatter on a player who may be the best hitter in the National League. Reds GM Dick Williams tells Heyman that he’s not looking to shop the superstar and also hasn’t been told that Votto (who possesses full no-trade rights) wants to depart. Even if there is mutual interest, of course, there’s the matter of sorting out the cash and prospects — which will likely be a tall order.
Williams also tells Heyman that he believes the Reds took positive steps at the major league level in 2016, suggesting that the organization is happy to hang onto a highly popular and productive player despite his massive salary. The situation may be somewhat different with regard to second baseman Brandon Phillips, though, with Heyman writing that the team intends to find a way to get Jose Peraza into the lineup quite a bit. They’ll “make this clear” to Phillips, he says, though it isn’t known whether the veteran will be amenable to waiving his own no-trade protection after demanding an extension to do so in the past. The 35-year-old is down to the final year of his deal, though, after turning in a solid-but-unspectacular .291/.320/.416 batting line. Though metrics soured a bit on his glove, Phillips has a long history of strong defensive work. A $14MM tab on a one-year commitment is hardly unworkable, though hypothetically interested organizations may ask Cinci to kick in some cash.
Heyman also tackled the Diamondbacks’ front office search. Reported interest in Nationals president and GM Mike Rizzo seems likely to be a non-starter. “I don’t think there’s anything to it,” said Washington owner Mark Lerner, who called it “a totally fabricated story.” The floating of interest in Rizzo could hint that Arizona has its eyes on an exec with experience running a baseball operations department, Heyman suggests, with the team perhaps hoping to return immediately to competitiveness rather than undertaking a rebuild. A general manager with another team suggests that he thinks the D-Backs will need to guarantee a five-year term to draw a strong candidate, given the frequency of front-office turnover in Arizona.

Royals Rumors: Payroll, Duffy, Morales

By Steve Adams | October 14, 2016 at 12:47pm CDT

While the expectation surrounding the Royals has been that they’ll have to reduce payroll in 2017 after a franchise-record $140MM mark in 2016 — GM Dayton Moore himself has recently suggested as much, in fact — team owner David Glass tells Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star that he hasn’t made a final determination on the payroll. Glass calls Moore a “very persuasive” general manager and said there’s no way of knowing where the payroll will stand due to the fact that there’s no way of knowing what the offseason will hold.

“I don’t know where we’ll end up,” Glass tells Mellinger. “…[W]hat we actually do depends on the opportunities we have, and none of us, including our general manager, know right now what we can do.” The roster impact of Glass’ apparent openness to continuing to spend at an aggressive level remains to be seen, but Mellinger reports that the Royals, as a franchise, actually lost at least $10MM overall in 2016.

As Mellinger points out, the Royals are facing a payroll increase even if they simply stand pat and let Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales depart via free agency. (Kansas City reportedly plans to buy out Volquez’s $10MM mutual option.) Indeed, the Royals will see a number of built-in contractual raises as well as numerous arbitration raises that will spike payroll. Alex Gordon’s salary jumps from $12MM to $16MM next season, and he’s hardly alone when it comes to escalating salaries. Ian Kennedy ($7.5MM to $13.5MM), Lorenzo Cain ($6.5MM to $11MM), Mike Moustakas ($5.6MM to $8.7MM), Chris Young ($4.25MM to $5.75MM), Joakim Soria ($7MM to $8MM), Salvador Perez ($2MM to $3MM), Mike Minor ($2MM to $4MM) and Yordano Ventura ($1MM to $3.25MM) will all see their guaranteed salaries rise. And, as we projected earlier this week, the Royals also stand to see substantial arbitration raises for Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera and Jarrod Dyson.

Kansas City does have some payroll coming off the books. In addition to Volquez and Morales, the Royals could see Luke Hochevar and Kris Medlen depart. And they have some non-tender candidates, including Tony Cruz, Daniel Nava, Tim Collins and Dillon Gee. Those subtractions, though, won’t offset the raises throughout the rest of the roster. That’s likely the reason that there are already rumors about the Royals trading closer Wade Davis, who is set to earn $10MM next year (once his option is picked up). However, Glass’ comments at least curb what appeared t be a foregone conclusion regarding payroll reduction.

As Mellinger writes, one creative way to manage the 2017 payroll to some extent would be to agree to backloaded extensions with Duffy and Herrera. Both the team and Duffy have expressed interest in a long-term deal before, and Mellinger writes that the plan is indeed to talk about an extension this winter. If that’s the case, the Royals could guarantee Duffy significantly less than his $8.2MM arbitration projection in 2017 and pay him at a higher rate in subsequent seasons of the deal — after some combination of Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer and Davis are off the books. A similar approach could be employed with Herrera, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected to receive a healthy bump from $2.55MM to $5.3MM.

One party, in particular, may come away as the beneficiary of a potential payroll crunch in Kansas City, though, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports within his latest notes column that the team is unlikely to make a qualifying offer to Morales. The 33-year-old switch-hitter enjoyed a monstrous four-month stretch to close out the season, hitting .296/.357/.531 with 24 homers in 106 games en route to an overall line of .263/.327/.468 (and his first 30-homer season since 2009). However, the Royals believe there’s a good chance that Morales would accept the qualifying offer after rejecting one from the Mariners in 2013 and languishing on the free agent market until the following June.

While Heyman writes that in an ideal world, Kansas City would prefer to keep the slugging DH in 2017 and beyond, the Royals are also intrigued by the idea of a floating DH role that would allow Gordon, Moustakas (who had surgery to repair a torn ACL earlier this year) and Perez to get the occasional breather from the rigors of their daily defensive routines. Perez, in particular, strikes me as someone who stands to gain from that line of thinking, as he’s averaged a staggering 137.5 starts behind the plate per season dating back to 2013.

Royals Receiving Early Trade Interest In Wade Davis

By Steve Adams | October 14, 2016 at 10:02am CDT

The Royals have already begun receiving quite a few calls about the availability of closer Wade Davis, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, and the team appears willing to consider the possibility of a deal, as it was this past July when Davis was a trade candidate prior to landing on the disabled list with a forearm strain.

Kansas City has yet to exercise Davis’ $10MM option for the 2017 season and won’t do so until the completion of the World Series, though it’s a lock that they’ll do so when that decision arrives. While he’s only controlled for one more season before hitting the open market, Davis would represent a considerably more affordable late-inning option (from a financial perspective, anyhow) than free agents such as Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Heyman’s report doesn’t list specific teams that have reached out the K.C. general manager Dayton Moore, but the Giants are known to be prioritizing top-tier bullpen arms this winter. Speculatively speaking, the Dodgers could make sense as an eventual trade partner, given president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s familiarity with him (Friedman was the GM in Tampa Bay when Davis was drafted), though certainly Los Angeles has more pressing issues on its hands as it preps for a matchup with the Cubs in the NLCS. The Cubs themselves could also be in the market for a ninth-inning arm this offseason (though they may well try to retain Chapman), while the Yankees and Nationals represent other clubs that could explore opportunities to add high-impact relief help.

Of course, any number of teams could come calling on Davis given his relatively affordable salary and his track record of excellence. Since moving to the bullpen with the Royals following multiple lackluster seasons in the rotation, Davis has transformed into one of the game’s truly elite relievers. Dating back to Opening Day 2014, Davis boasts a comically minuscule 1.18 ERA with 11.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. Moore has said that Kansas City will see its payroll “regress” in 2017, and swapping out Davis for some premium minor league talent and/or a cheaper, more controllable young big leaguer could help them work toward that end.

Then again, the 31-year-old Davis isn’t without his red flags. Though his 1.87 ERA in 2016 was once again pristine, his 9.8 K/9 rate was the lowest in any of his seasons as an elite reliever, while his 3.3 BB/9 rate was his highest of any full season in the ’pen. Davis’ velocity was down one full mile per hour over his 2015 average of 95.9, and he also spent a combined five weeks on the disabled list (spread across two different stints) due to forearm troubles. He surrendered three runs across his first three appearances in returning from that second DL stint, though interested parties may be heartened by the fact that he finished the year with seven shutout innings, during which he compiled a very tidy 9-to-1 K/BB ratio.

While it should be stressed that no deal would be reached with the postseason still in full swing, the preliminary talks being held now could ultimately provide the groundwork for more substantial discussions later in the offseason, be they at the GM Meetings in November or the Winter Meetings in early December.

Injury Notes: Salazar, Strasburg, Liriano, Pagan, Young

By Jeff Todd | October 12, 2016 at 9:55am CDT

The Indians continue to see progress from right Danny Salazar, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports. He is readying for a sim game today or tomorrow as he works to return from a forearm strain, after which Cleveland will determine whether he’s ready to work from the bullpen in the upcoming ALCS. That would provide the Indians with a notable boost to a bullpen that figures to be a key to the team’s chances.

Here are a few more injury notes from around the game:

As they hope for their own trip to the league championship round, the Nationals don’t appear to have quite as much cause for optimism for their own injured starter, Stephen Strasburg, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier reports. Manager Dusty Baker said that Strasburg, who’s dealing with forearm problems, was throwing well in a pen session but elected to cut it short after experiencing discomfort. Baker did suggest it wasn’t a true setback, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post notes on Twitter that Strasburg was tossing from flat ground yesterday. That seems to suggest there’s at least a glimmer of hope that he’d be available if the team reaches the NLCS, though perhaps a hypothetical World Series return would be more plausible.
The Blue Jays appear set to utilize lefty Francisco Liriano in the ALCS after he reported positive developments after being struck by a liner in the divisional series, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. Liriano says he’s symptom-free and ready to go this weekend. The 32-year-old pitched well down the stretch while working mostly as a starter, but has been used from the pen thus far in the postseason. He’ll likely factor as an important swingman as the Jays seek to move on to the playoffs’ final round.
Giants outfielder Angel Pagan was hopeful he’d be able to go for last night’s thrilling NLDS Game 4, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reported. His back spasms had him at day-to-day status, the veteran said. Ultimately, though, Pagan did not appear in the contest, in which San Francisco suffered another stunning bullpen meltdown to end its season. The 35-year-old’s five-year run with the Giants may be over, with the seemingly minor back issue not doing much to damper a nice bounceback campaign. Over 543 plate appearances on the year, he posted a sturdy .277/.331/.418 batting line with 15 steals and a dozen home runs. The switch-hitting Pagan was particularly good against right-handed pitching, and seems likely to draw a fair bit of interest as a center field-capable fourth outfielder on the open market.
Royals righty Chris Young underwent surgery to what the team described as his “bilateral core and right-sided adductor,” per a club announcement (via MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan; Twitter links). He’s only expected to need eight weeks to recover, meaning that the procedure shouldn’t have much of an impact on his ramp-up next spring.

Central Notes: Tigers, Royals, Peralta, Brewers

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2016 at 2:17pm CDT

Tigers GM Al Avila tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that he takes full responsibility for the team’s underperformance in 2016. “…[A]t the end of the day, I make those decisions and you’ve got to put a lot of the blame on myself,” said Avila. “So the guys that we brought in — and let’s say they didn’t perform for whatever reason — that’s on me. As Fenech explores, about $56MM of the Tigers’ 2016 payroll was dedicated to free agent signings Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Lowe and Mike Aviles. That quintet of players, however, fell woefully shy of expectations and finished the season with a collective performance that was scarcely better than replacement-level. Fenech notes that Avila fared much better on the trade market — Cameron Maybin, Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson — and will probably have to be more active in that regard this winter anyhow due to the lack of appealing free-agent options.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star explores some potential trade scenarios for the Royals, noting that the team’s desire to shed payroll could result in moving a player who has been central to the team’s previous run of success. However, Dodd also reports that to this point, Kansas City “has shown little inclination to trade one of its central players,” so the listed scenarios are predominately speculative in nature. Among the soon-to-be free agents are Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar — each of whom will hit the open market following the 2017 season.
The infield is a source of some uncertainty for the Cardinals heading into the 2017 season, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, unlike many clubs with positional uncertainty, St. Louis’ problem isn’t a lack of options but rather a number of potential fits. The hot corner looks to be Jhonny Peralta’s entering next year, Hummel surmises, as Matt Carpenter could play either first base or second base — representing another position change for the versatile infielder. Peralta acknowledged to Hummel that rookie Aledmys Diaz has seized the shortstop gig and will play there moving forward, and the veteran didn’t have any complaints about the move. Nonetheless, Hummel writes that Peralta could potentially be dealt this offseason as well, if there’s interest, noting that he’s owed $10MM next year in the final season of a front-loaded four-year, $53MM pact. The presence Matt Adams and Kolten Wong (as well as potential interest in re-signing Brandon Moss), of course, only further clouds the infield picture.
Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about the team’s 2016 season and explained that many of the incremental goals the team set for itself were met, even if there’s still quite a bit of work to be done. Counsell spoke positively about the competition among players not only at the minor league level but also at the big league level as a particular source of excitement for him. As Haudricourt notes, the Brewers led the Majors in stolen bases and also came second only to the Blue Jays in pitches per plate appearance (3.97), which resulted in a staggering increase in walks but also an uptick in strikeouts. The Brewers struck out too often and ranked in the bottom third of the league in overall runs scored, so Stearns isn’t celebrating the increase in selectivity just yet. “I think ultimately you evaluate offense by the number of runs you create,” said the GM. “All offensive contributions are geared toward creating runs. Clearly, we’d like to create more runs in the future. We can get there in a variety of ways. There’s no prescribed way to build a lineup. We have to be flexible in how we approach run creation.”

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