- Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
Marlins Rumors
Twins Interested In Sergio Romo
- The Twins, continuing their wide-ranging search for relief help, have shown interest in Marlins closer Sergio Romo, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio tweets. The soft-tossing, 36-year-old Romo has pitched well for the Marlins since he joined them on a $2.5MM guarantee last winter, making him a strong bet to depart by the trade deadline. Romo has recorded a 3.58 ERA/3.89 FIP over 37 2/3 innings, also adding 7.88 K/9, 3.11 BB/9 and 17 saves in 18 opportunities.
Latest On Marlins’ Trevor Richards
Marlins right-hander Trevor Richards has surfaced as a trade candidate in advance of next week’s deadline, but he’s now changing roles. Richards will shift to the Marlins’ bullpen, and fellow righty Elieser Hernandez will take his spot in the Marlins’ rotation, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com relays. That could make Richards more expendable to the Fish, as Frisaro writes that he’s “the primary candidate to be dealt” among their starting options.
Richards’ most recent start, a loss to the White Sox this past Monday, didn’t go well. Although he notched seven strikeouts against one walk, the 26-year-old yielded seven earned runs on seven hits (two home runs) over five innings. Richards has now gone seven straight starts of fewer than six innings, which reflects the difficulty he has encountered against opposing lineups the more they’ve seen him.
While Richards has held enemy teams to a .310 weighted on-base average the first time through the order and a .279 wOBA the second trip, they’ve smashed him for a .416 mark during the third go-around. Based on that, perhaps Richards is better suited for a bullpen job, though as someone who only averages 91 mph on his fastball, he doesn’t look like an intimidating late-game presence in the making.
Despite his recent struggles as a starter, Richards has largely been a usable back-end arm since he made his major league debut a year ago. He entered Friday with 109 innings of 4.62 ERA/4.78 FIP pitching, 8.26 K/9, 4.05 BB/9 and a 35.4 percent groundball rate this season.
Frankly, there’s little to nothing worth getting excited about over “a usable back-end arm.” But the fact that Richards is making the league minimum this season and still has two years of pre-arbitration control left could appeal to a team looking to fill out the end of its starting staff or its bullpen on the cheap. Should Richards stay in Miami past the deadline, it’s “likely” he’ll work as a reliever for the foreseeable future, Frisaro suggests. He threw a scoreless, two-strikeout inning out of the Marlins’ bullpen in a win over the Diamondbacks on Friday.
Caleb Smith Drawing Interest
Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith is generating interest as the July 31 trade deadline nears, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets.
It’s no surprise there are teams eyeing the controllable, effective Smith, but whether the Marins are open to dealing him is in question. Frisaro reported a month ago that the Marlins aren’t willing to give up Smith, who has been one of the few hugely successful trade additions they’ve acquired since Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter bought the franchise late in the 2017 season.
Smith, like Jeter, joined the Marlins after a run with the Yankees. The 27-year-old hurler threw 77 1/3 effective innings with the Marlins a season ago and has been even more impressive in 2019. Across 90 frames, Smith has recorded a 3.30 ERA/4.13 FIP with 11.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. While Smith’s 28 percent groundball rate ranks last among those who have thrown at least 90 innings this season, the home run ball hasn’t crushed him to this point. Smith has surrendered HRs on 15.2 percent of fly balls, which is below average but not ruinous.
Smith doesn’t throw particularly hard, evidenced by his 92.1 mph average, but hitters have nonetheless had difficulty squaring up against him. According to Statcast, Smith ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average against, exit velocity, fastball spin, expected batting average and strikeout rate. If that’s not appealing enough, Smith’s making what amounts to a minimum salary this season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.
All things considered, Miami would be within reason to request a ransom for Smith. However, assuming the Marlins haven’t changed their minds over the past month, they seem inclined to keep him.
Marlins’ Trevor Richards, Sergio Romo Generating Interest
Marlins right-handers Trevor Richards and Sergio Romo are drawing interest in advance of the trade deadline, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.
Neither player looks like a substantial difference-maker, but there is appeal in both cases. The 26-year-old Richards’ main selling point is likely his affordable control. He’s on a minimum salary now, won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021, and isn’t on track to reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 season. The battle-tested Romo, 36, could give a contender a credible late-game option down the stretch, and he presumably wouldn’t cost much to acquire.
An undrafted free agent in 2013, Richards has emerged as a back-end starter for the Marlins since he debuted in the majors last season. Dating back to then, Richards has pitched to a 4.51 ERA/4.39 FIP with 8.8 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9 in 235 1/3 innings and 45 starts. While the Marlins are open to trading starters if doing so would help improve their position player group, they may be hard-pressed to get a desirable, major league-ready hitter back for Richards – who has been useful but far from spectacular.
Romo, previously with the Giants, Dodgers and Rays, inked a $2.5MM guarantee with the Marlins in free agency last winter. At the time, non-contending Miami was likely hoping Romo would wind up bringing something back in an in-season trade. With a 3.68 ERA/3.96 FIP, 7.85 K/9 against 3.19 BB/9 and 16 saves on 17 chances in 36 2/3 innings, perhaps the three-time world champion has performed well enough to end the season with a playoff-caliber team.
As has been the case over the past few years, Romo has limited damaging contact despite velocity that only tops out in the 85 to 86 mph range. Romo ranks in the league’s 86th percentile or better in exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average against (.273, not far from a .280 actual wOBA), expected batting average against and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. His primary pitch – a slider – has held opposing hitters to a matching and minuscule .211 xwOBA and wOBA. It’s the second-best slider in the game among relievers, according to FanGraphs’ linear weights. Judging by teams’ interest in Romo, his go-to pitch just might factor into this year’s playoff race.
Marlins Activate Martin Prado, Place JT Riddle On IL
The Marlins have announced that they have activated veteran infielder Martin Prado from the 10-day injured list. He’ll take the place of utilityman JT Riddle, who’s headed for his own IL stint with a forearm strain.
Prado, 35, is back in action in time to feature as a trade candidate — in theory. Trouble is, his nosedive at the plate has shown no signs of abating over the past three years. And his latest hamstring injury is the latest in a string of leg maladies.
When the Fish inked Prado to a questionable three-year extension late in the 2016 season, he was putting the finishing touches on a solid campaign and was still at least carrying a recent track record of slightly above-average offensive work. Three years and $40MM seemed like a rather heavy commitment, particularly for an organization with the outlook of the Miami club, but he’d have been a reasonably sought-after free agent had he not re-upped with the Marlins.
That deal has turned out to be a complete bust in spite of the best efforts of the respected veteran. Prado has played in only 142 games, slashing a combined .244/.277/.319. While he’s still a solid defender, Prado is a negative on the basepaths and has in the aggregate played at or below replacement level.
Perhaps it’s still possible to squint and imagine a contender taking a flier on Prado as a 25th man who’d contribute in the clubhouse. He has been on a tear on his rehab assignment; if he shows up to the majors looking particularly spry, there’s an outside chance at a trade. Even then, it’s tough to imagine the Marlins shedding any noticeable amount of salary or recouping anything in the way of prospect value in return.
Marlins’ Bullpen Reportedly Earning Attention Of Scouts
According to a report from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, several scouts were in attendance for Saturday night’s game between the Marlins and Mets, presumably with an interest in observing several Miami relievers.
Though Frisaro did underscore that the participation of New York starter Noah Syndergaard in tonight’s affair likely had much to do with the heavy scouting presence at Marlins Park, he also proposed that a few interesting Miami arms could be of particular interest to competitive clubs.
Entering tonight’s game, the Marlins’ bullpen had posted a collective 2.25 ERA since June 1st, which was tied with the Braves and A’s for the third-best mark in the Majors in that span. It’s difficult to say which of Miami’s bullpen pieces would be most attractive to an acquiring club, but Frisaro points to Austin Brice, Jarlin Garcia and Nick Anderson as possible trade chips.
It is conceivable that an in-the-race team could buy into the 1.88 ERA of the 27-year-old Brice, but only if they were to overlook his slightly less pristine underlying marks, which include a 4.39 xFIP. Jarlin Garcia could make for a solid LOOGY candidate for most teams, but his 6.30 career K/9 indicates that he isn’t the type of arm that typically elicits a ton of trade value.
Anderson could make for the club’s most appealing late-inning trade bait. The 6’5 righty is generating a prodigious number of strikeouts in his first big league campaign (13.85 K/9), turning to a 95-mph fastball in addition to a heavily used curveball. After giving up a decisive two-run dinger to Robinson Cano tonight, Anderson’s ERA sits at 4.46, but FIP (2.99) thinks much more highly of his 2019 work. The 29-year-old, whom Miami acquired from Minnesota this past November, is controllable for five years beyond the 2019 season.
Marlins To Sign J.J. Bleday, Kameron Misner
JULY 12, 3:58pm: Misner has a buzzer-beating, $2.115MM deal, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). Mokma will forego his commitment to Michigan State by inking a $557K agreement.
3:18pm: Misner is undergoing a physical, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets, though it’s not clear yet that the sides are otherwise fully squared away on a deal. Heyman adds that 12th-rounder Chris Mokma will agree to terms with the Fish if they can get Misner under contract.
9:20am: Bleday’s bonus will check in at $6,670,000, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. That checks in over his slot value by a narrow margin of $6,000.
JULY 10, 8:25pm: In addition to their deal with Bleday, the Marlins are close to an agreement with No. 35 pick Kameron Misner, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Before reaching a deal with Misner, Miami first needed to finish negotiations with Bleday so they could know how much it had left to offer Misner. While no deal is quite in place yet, Mish adds that Misner has already decided he will not return to Missouri.
In his junior season at Mizzou, Misner hit .286/.440/.481 with 10 homers, 10 doubles and 20 stolen bases (in 21 tries). Misner rated as the draft’s No. 26 prospect at BA, No. 30 at MLB.com, No. 31 at Fangraphs and No. 34 at ESPN. He’s regarded as a plus runner who can handle any outfield spot, and he draws praise for a potentially average hit tool and above-average pop. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com call him a potential 20-20 threat if his development progresses.
7:22pm: The Marlins have agreed to terms with No. 4 overall draft selection J.J. Bleday, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The star Vanderbilt outfielder was widely considered a top-five talent and one of the best power bats in the draft. His slot comes with a $6.66MM value.
Bleday, 21, will add a high-end offensive prospect to an improving Marlins system that is currently deeper in pitching than in bats. In his final season at Vanderbilt, Bleday posted a ridiculous .350/.464/.717 slash with 26 home runs, 13 doubles and a triple in 320 plate appearances — all while walking more often (54) than he struck out (53).
Prior to draft day, Bleday checked in as this year’s No. 3 prospect, per Fangraphs, where Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen praised the Division-I home run leader’s power and improved approach at the plate. MLB.com tabbed Bleday as the No. 5 prospect in the draft and gave him plus grades on his arm strength and raw power, in addition to an above-average hit tool. Baseball America ranked him sixth and, like other reports noted that he profiles best as a prototypical right fielder (albeit one who can handle center “in a pinch). ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him seventh, noting an unorthodox swing but a classic power-hitting right fielder’s profile with a history of performance.
Marlins Have Received Interest In Starlin Castro
The Marlins are firmly in seller mode as the deadline approaches, and one of the veterans who has received some interest from rival teams is Starlin Castro, as the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson reports that the Fish have received some calls about the second baseman.
Castro has been a trade candidate since the moment he first came to Miami, dealt in December 2017 (mostly as salary offset) as part of the blockbuster deal that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees. The rebuilding Marlins didn’t have much use for a veteran with a pricey contract, though their efforts to deal Castro over the last year and a half haven’t been successful. If nothing else, that time diminished the money attached to Castro’s services — he is still owed roughly $4.7MM of his $11MM salary for the 2019 season, and his $16MM club option for 2020 can be bought out for $1MM.
It’s easy to imagine Miami eating virtually all of that remaining salary just for the sake of accommodating a move, since Castro’s trade value is minimal. As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently outlined, Castro is suffering through the worst season of his ten-year career, hitting only .245/.272/.336 through 371 plate appearances and some of the least-impressive advanced metrics (via Statcast) of any player in baseball.
It’s probably safe to assume that interested teams are looking at Castro just as infield depth for the stretch run, and perhaps hoping that getting away from the last-place Marlins and into a pennant race would help jolt Castro back into something resembling his old self. Conversely, a team keen on adding Castro may not feel the need to give up even a minor prospect to acquire his services when it’s quite possible the Marlins could just release him after July 31 anyway. Marlins prospect Isan Diaz is tearing up Triple-A pitching and pushing hard for MLB playing time at second base, so if a trade partner for Castro can’t be found, the Marlins could release Castro and end up eating his salary anyway (with a new team then responsible for a prorated league minimum salary if they were to sign Castro).
An Underrated Waiver Pickup
The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.
The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).
Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.
Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.
Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).
The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).
Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.
