Rosenthal On Yankees, Playoffs, Sabermetrics
The Yankees enter play today with a one-game lead over the Orioles and four games over the Rays. And, it's a good thing this isn't your father's Yankees, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. If George Steinbrenner was alive today, Rosenthal believes he might have fired manager Joe Girardi after blowing a ten-game lead in the AL East and replaced him with the likes of Lou Piniella. Hal Steinbrenner is almost the polar opposite of his father. So much so that, when Rosenthal asked Brian Cashman of the potential fallout that might occur if the team fails to reach the playoffs, the Yankees' GM said, "We have objective, patient ownership." Also from Rosenthal's column:
- The new schedule hasn't been a cure-all for small market teams like the Rays. Rosenthal suggests one way to mitigate the Rays’ disadvantage would be to scale revenue sharing so they would receive a greater percentage than a low-revenue club such as the Indians, who compete in a division with lower payrolls.
- A criticism of the new playoff system is Wild Card teams who have better records than division winners are penalized in the seeding of the Division Series. Rosenthal's solution is to wait until after the Wild Card game to seed the Division Series.
- The AL CY Young Award voting will be a test of how accepted advanced statistics are by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Rosenthal points out the last eight AL pitchers to either lead or tie for the lead in those categories, like the Rays' David Price this year, each have won the award. The Tigers' Justin Verlander meanwhile leads in wins above replacement and Chris Sale of the White Sox leads in ERA+. Price is tops, however, in quality of opponents faced, based on the rankings of Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
- Larry Bowa's interview for the Astros' managerial vacancy is a good sign, as rival executives have worried that GM Jeff Luhnow is surrounding himself with too many like-minded sabermetric types rather than building a diverse baseball operations department.
- The Marlins may have difficulty in sticking with their plan to keep Emilio Bonifacio in center field, play Donovan Solano at second, and make the acquisition of a third baseman their top priority. Rosenthal points out the market for third basemen is bare, so one alternative for the Marlins is to acquire an outfielder and move Bonifacio back to third base.
- Look for the Rays to exercise their $2.5MM option on Fernando Rodney. Rodney is bidding to become only the second reliever in history (Dennis Eckersley in 1990) to have a season of 40 or more saves and an ERA under 1.00. Rodney leads baseball with 43 saves and his ERA is 0.66.
- The Cubs will look again this offseason to move Alfonso Soriano, who is one home run and one RBI shy of his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season since 2005. If the Cubs fail to receive a sufficient offer, they could always bring back Soriano, owed $36MM over the next two years, and try to move him at the deadline again. Rosenthal cited the example of Carlos Lee of how it is easier to deal an overpriced player the closer he gets to the end of his contract.
Rosenthal On Upton, Soriano, Olt, Porter
Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- At the age of 28, B.J. Upton will be the youngest outfielder on the open market this winter. Rosenthal believes that Upton figures to land a deal of at least five years and virtually every NL East team could pursue him. The Marlins in particular could show strong interest as Dan Jennings was the Rays' scouting director when they drafted him in 2002. Earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com checked in with four MLB execs who had varied opinions on what kind of deal Upton will get this offseason.
- Rafael Soriano could opt-out of his three-year, $35MM deal at the end of this season in pursuit of a larger deal, but that might not be a wise choice. That would call for Soriano to forfeit his $14MM salary in 2013 and the Yankees would definitely make him a qualifying offer (around $13MM) that would require a team to give up draft pick compensation to sign him. Historically, that has hurt the value of free agent relievers.
- The Rangers had little interest in parting with Mike Olt at the deadline but some rival execs think that they'll be more willing to move him this offseason. While the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and may like Olt to be a part of their offensive core going forward, he could have tremendous value as many teams are in search of a strong third base option.
- Don't be surprised if the Marlins talk to Nationals third base coach Bo Porter again in the event that they fire Ozzie Guillen. Earlier this week, the Astros met with Porter, making him the first person to interview for the managerial vacancy.
Heyman On Kyle Lohse, Russell Martin
The latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com…
- Kyle Lohse is seen as very likely to leave the Cardinals when he hits free agency this winter, Heyman reports. One general manager said C.J. Wilson is better than Lohse, implying that a five-year, $77.5MM contract will be out of reach for the Cardinals right-hander. A three-year contract in the $40MM range seems more realistic for Lohse, who turns 34 next month.
- Three general managers suggested Russell Martin will have to settle for a one-year contract this coming offseason, Heyman reports. The Yankees made Martin a three-year contract offer in the $20MM range this spring, but Martin turned it down. Instead, the general managers told Heyman, Martin will probably end up with a one-year contract, perhaps in the $7.5MM range. A multiyear deal remains possible given the lack of alternatives for teams seeking catching help.
Managerial Notes: Girardi, Dodgers, Marlins
The Astros are the only team currently looking for a manager, but within a few weeks there’s a good chance other MLB teams will be in the market for managers of their own. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports lists those who could be managing for their jobs between now and the end of the regular season. Here are the highlights…
- Joe Girardi of the Yankees is a good manager who doesn’t deserve to be fired, Rosenthal writes. However, Girardi’s job security will be in question if the Yankees don’t win the AL East.
- It’d be reasonable to ask if Jim Leyland got enough out of the Tigers roster if Detroit misses the postseason. The Tigers could decide it’s time for a change after seven seasons under Leyland, Rosenthal writes.
- Though Mike Scioscia is under contract through 2018, Angels owner Arte Moreno would be disappointed to miss the playoffs after an offseason of aggressive moves.
- The Dodgers will likely pursue a contract extension with manager Don Mattingly no matter how their season ends, Rosenthal reports.
- Bobby Valentine won’t be back in Boston. If the Red Sox can’t pry John Farrell away from the Blue Jays, they’ll have to look elsewhere for a replacement.
- Some Marlins people believe their season started deteriorating when Guillen spoke publicly about Fidel Castro in April. However, it appears more likely the Marlins will re-structure their front office than fire Guillen.
- Rosenthal suggests Terry Francona could be a fit in Cleveland if the Indians dismiss Manny Acta following their disappointing second half. Francona will likely have options elsewhere and he might be prohibitively expensive for Cleveland.
- Fredi Gonzalez probably won’t have to worry about his job security as long as the Braves make the playoffs.
New York Notes: Collins, Mets, Yankees, McLouth
Here's a look at a couple of items on the Mets and Yankees..
- Terry Collins will be back to manage the Mets next year despite the club's second-half slide, people familiar with the situation tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Despite the fact that the Nationals and Braves have won more games at Citi Field than the Mets in the second act of the 2012 season, all of Collins' bosses support him. It was reported last month that the Mets were prepared to stand behind Collins, though the club had hoped for a third-place finish in the NL East.
- The only question now appears to be whether Collins is given an extension of a year or two to avoid lame duck status in 2013, Heyman writes. Wally Backman, currently managing the Mets' Triple-A affiliate, is seen as a possible heir for Collins.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Yankees offered Nate McLouth a minor league deal after he was released by the Pirates in June. McLouth instead opted to go with the Orioles as he felt that he had a better shot of reaching the majors. The outfielder is hitting .279/.350/.418 in 35 games for the O's this year.
Rafael Soriano Likely To Opt Out
There’s a good chance Rafael Soriano will exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Yankees after the season and hit free agency early, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Soriano must choose between another year in New York with a salary of $14MM and opting out for a $1.5MM buyout and the uncertainty of the open market.
Yankees people believe they have a very solid relationship with Soriano, who’s a client of the Boras Corporation. Team executives aren’t convinced he’d opt out and pass up $14MM, according to Heyman. If Soriano opts out, the Yankees can still make him a qualifying offer valued at $13MM-plus and link him to draft pick compensation.
Mariano Rivera will hit free agency this offseason, but if he re-signs with the Yankees he’d presumably have the closer’s job and push Soriano into a setup role. The sides could also work out a multiyear deal with the idea that Soriano could set up in 2013 and close after that, Heyman writes.
Soriano, 32, signed a three-year, $35MM contract with New York following the 2010 season. He has a 2.17 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 37 saves in 58 innings so far in 2012.
Yankees Notes: Payroll, Lowe, Pettitte
The Yankees are fighting to finish the season atop the American League East as the Orioles' strong play has put them neck-and-neck with the Bombers. Here's a look at the latest on the Yankees as they take on the Red Sox in Boston..
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees abandon their plan to get under the $189MM luxury tax threshold for 2014 if they wind up missing the playoffs. However, should that happen, Sherman suggests that the Bombers should stay the course as the four other largest payroll teams would all miss the playoffs if they started today. The Yankees invested $423.5MM in C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett after missing the playoffs in 2008.
- Yankees pitcher Derek Lowe said he's not sure if he wants to go forward as a reliever next season, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "I'll sort that out in the offseason," the 39-year-old said. Lowe had a 5.52 ERA with 3.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 21 starts for the Indians this season before being DFA'd on August 2nd. Back in August, agent Scott Boras admitted that contending clubs probably won't look at his client as a starter when he hits the open market.
- Andy Pettitte threw a four-inning, 55-pitch simulated game earlier today and insists that he's ready to return to action, writes David Waldstein of the New York Times. Despite the 40-year-old's confidence, the Yankees aren't yet convinced that he's ready to go.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles
The Red Sox haven't finished last in the American League East since 1992, when their division rivals included the Tigers, Indians and Brewers. With 21 games remaining the 2012 Red Sox are in last place with a 63-78 record. Here’s the latest from their division…
- The Red Sox intend to address their pitching issues this offseason, GM Ben Cherington told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “We’ve got to look back and figure out why we were off on that,” Cherington said. The Red Sox are expected to bolster their rotation this winter, though one-year deals seem more likely than mega-contracts. Cherington relied on minor league signings last offseason, but knows more significant additions are necessary this year.
- Joba Chamberlain, Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte are vital to the Yankees for the final three weeks of the regular season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The job security of some executives, coaches and players could diminish if the Yankees miss the postseason, Sherman adds.
- Rays manager Joe Maddon told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he's pleased to see the Orioles contending for a playoff spot again. "I'm really happy for Baltimore and that organization, having been such a wonderful organization in the past," Maddon said.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Big Papi, Markakis, Red Sox
Yesterday, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com surveyed two National League executives on Robinson Cano and his value as he inches closer to hitting the open market. Both supported the Yankees spending big on the second baseman and one even said that he has a legitimate case for a $200MM extension. Here's more on the Yankees and other AL East items..
- David Ortiz told reporters, including the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber, that he may not play again for the Red Sox this year because of his strained right Achilles. "To be honest with you, what I’m looking for right now is to make sure I heal up the right way," Ortiz said. "I pushed it once. Didn’t work. So I’m not going to push it again." Ortiz, who has played only once since July 16, received a platelet-rich plasma injection nearly two weeks ago that has left him feeling “totally different.” But, he is still wearing a protective boot on his right foot and won’t attempt any baseball activities until at least Tuesday when he’s expected to have it removed.
- The Orioles' Nick Markakis is expected to undergo surgery tomorrow to insert a plate into his broken left thumb, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN.com. The surgery could speed up the recovery process, so the Orioles remain optimistic Markakis could return if they go deep into the playoffs, writes Kubatko.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at five personnel decisions that backfired on the Yankees this season. Sherman writes that the trade of Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda was among the club's biggest mistakes. Although Pineda could bounce back from injury and fulfill his potential, Montero could have been a long-term answer for the Yankees in the event that Russell Martin leaves via free agency.
- Theo Epstein only deserves some of the blame for the situation that the Red Sox are in and not all of it, opines John Tomase of the Boston Herald. While Epstein made the big money deals that tied up the club's payroll, owners John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino had final say over all of them.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka's next start with the Red Sox could be his last with the club, writes Michael Vega of the Boston Globe. "Honestly, I don’t know if I’ll be wearing this Red Sox uniform next year," Matsuzaka said through his interpreter, Jeff Cutler. "As I’ve said before, it’s an honor to be able to wear this Red Sox uniform, but it hasn’t been an added stress for me."
- Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine told NESN's Tom Caron that the criticism that has been directed at him stems from personal gripes, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Valentine believes that he has always received unfair criticism and anticipated more of it when he arrived in Boston.
Edward Creech also contributed to this post.
Stark On Yankees, LaRoche, Phillies
The Yankees will reach a crossroads with three of their most productive players this offseason when Nick Swisher hits free agency and Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano get a little closer to the open market. Jayson Stark surveyed MLB executives about the value of those Yankees and passed along the results in his latest column at ESPN.com. Here are the details and more notes from Stark…
- Two National League executives had no reservations about spending on Cano. “Pay him what he's worth," one said. The other said Cano has a legitimate case for a $200MM extension.
- The execs praised Granderson as a person but questioned his value on the field. A $100MM contract would be excessive in the view of one executive. Both Cano and Granderson will be eligible for free agency following the 2013 season, assuming the Yankees exercise their '13 club options.
- Similarly, the executives don’t consider Swisher a candidate for a Jayson Werth-type deal (seven years and $126MM). Swisher may look to match Werth’s contract as a free agent this coming winter.
- The Nationals have considered picking up their side of Adam LaRoche’s $10MM mutual option for 2013 and keeping Bryce Harper in center field, Stark reports. Alternatively, they could sign Michael Bourn when he hits free agency, move Harper to a corner spot and trade Michael Morse. I examined LaRoche’s option in detail last week, before his recent hot streak.
- The Phillies are looking at third base and left field options for next year and that search includes players already in the organization. One scout has been impressed by 26-year-old Darin Ruf, who hit 38 home runs at Double-A this year. "He might be Matt Holliday," the scout said, praising Ruf's hitting ability.
- An old friend of Roger Clemens doesn’t believe the seven-time Cy Young Award winner when he says he’s not thinking about playing at the MLB level. The person expects Clemens to sign with the Astros this month.