The Pirates’ 2011 Rotation
Many of the Pirates' most exciting pitchers are still in the minor leagues, so the team's 2011 rotation does not project to be strong, relative to the rest of the league. Within a few years, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Luis Heredia could join Brad Lincoln in a potentially loaded rotation, but that isn't about to happen immediately.
For now, the Pirates have a less electrifying group, including non-tender candidate Zach Duke, the struggling Paul Maholm and a number of organizational arms that probably won't have major roles on the next great Pirates team. But it's not yet time to look too far ahead: here's how Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation will look.
Zach Duke has been a mainstay in the team's rotation for years, but he has posted a 5.24 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 heading into his final season of arbitration. He earns $4.3MM this year and could make $5MM or so in 2011, so Duke is a non-tender candidate. The lefty has been unlucky, so Pittsburgh could keep him around and hope for a rebound season.
Paul Maholm has a 5.43 ERA with 4.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and would be another non-tender candidate were it not for the extension he signed in 2009. Mahom will earn $5.75MM next year and will likely start for the Pirates.
Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf, two products of the 2008 deal that sent Xavier Nady to the Bronx, are both injured, but both have turned in respectable seasons. Karstens has a 4.88 ERA in 19 starts with just 2.0 BB/9 and Ohlendorf had a 4.07 ERA before hitting the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Karstens will go to arbitration and Ohlendorf, a possible super two, may qualify as well. Both will definitely be cheap in 2011 and will presumably have the chance to make the team's rotation.
Brad Lincoln and James McDonald have both had up and down seasons. The Pirates let Lincoln start the year in the minors, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. He struggled to match that production in the majors and may stay in the 'pen for the remainder of the month. Lincoln has the upside of a number 2-3 starter, according to Baseball America, but the Pirates have been cautious with the right-hander so far, so they're probably not going to rush him into the major league rotation next spring.
McDonald has pitched inconsistently since the Pirates acquired him for Octavio Dotel, mixing three dominant starts with as many duds. He's striking out lots of hitters (8.7 K/9) and has a 4.17 ERA as a Pirate, but the 25-year-old will likely have to earn a rotation spot out of spring training if he is to start.
Charlie Morton, Brian Burres, minor leaguer Michael Crotta and Daniel McCutchen (yet another product of the apparently successful Nady deal) provide the Pirates with depth arms, but limited upside. Donnie Veal would have been in this group, too, but the left-hander recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss most of 2011.
The Pirates have every reason to look forward to recent additions Taillon, Allie and Heredia, but Allie is the oldest of the three and he's just 19. Owens, Locke and Morris all reached AA Altoona this year and posted excellent overall numbers. They're closer to major league success than, say, Heredia, but it's far too soon to expect them in the major league rotation.
Instead, the Pirates will probably call on Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Karstens, McDonald and others next year. GM Neal Huntington will, in all likelihood, pass on Cliff Lee and other elite pitchers and look into signing a dependable free agent arm. Club president Frank Coonelly is frustrated by the current edition of the Pirates and the team doesn't have many guarantees for next year. If a reliable pitcher like Dave Bush, Jake Westbrook or Kevin Millwood became available at the right price, the Pirates could bolster their rotation depth through free agency.
Pirates To Designate Iwamura & Kratz
The Pirates will designate Akinori Iwamura and Erik Kratz for assignment tomorrow, the team announced this afternoon. In related moves, Pittsburgh will recall Pedro Ciriaco, Jason Jaramillo, Brad Lincoln and Justin Thomas and select the contracts of Alex Presley, Brandon Moss, Brian Bass and Steven Jackson.
The Pirates, who traded for Iwamura last offseason, have already designated the infielder for assignment once in 2010. Pittsburgh reportedly tried to find a trade partner, but ultimately kept Iwamura and demoted him to the minor leagues. The 31-year-old hit .265/.403/.395 at Triple A Indianapolis – much better than the .182/.292/.267 line he posted in 193 big league plate appearances this year.
Kratz, 30, debuted in the major leagues this summer after a decade in the minors. His minor league numbers suggest he has some pop and patience, but Kratz collected just four singles and two walks in 36 big league plate appearances.
Kepner’s Latest: Astros’ Future, Jackson, Pirates
Tyler Kepner of the New York Times has some odds and ends from around the baseball universe; let's take a look at some of the highlights:
- The trades of players like Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt signify that the Astros have finally moved on and are looking ahead. Wandy Rodriguez is the only remaining player who played in the 2005 World Series with the club.
- General manager Ed Wade refuted speculation that he prefers to trade with the Phillies, the team for which he served as general manager from 1998-2005. Instead, he simply says that the Phillies provided the best offers to improve the Astros. Wade has traded both Oswalt and Brad Lidge to Philadelphia.
- Wade praises first-year manager Brad Mills for keeping the Astros focused after a 17-34 start to the season. Houston went 17-12 in August and has recently swept both the Phillies and Cardinals.
- Edwin Jackson is happy to be in Chicago on a fresh start. “It’s like a new season,” Jackson said. Earlier today we heard that Daniel Hudson, one of the players the Diamondbacks received in the deal, is experiencing similar enjoyment in Arizona.
- Kepner points out that the pitchers acquired from the Yankees in recent years haven't panned out for the Pirates. Ross Ohlendorf has experienced some success, but Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen have both disappointed. All three came to Pittsburgh in the trade for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. It's worth pointing out that the other component of that trade was Jose Tabata, who has played very well in his first taste of the big leagues this year.
Odds & Ends: Jocketty, Pirates, Indians
Links for Friday, before Cardinals host the Reds in a must-win series…
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times profiles Reds GM Walt Jocketty. Former Padres GM Kevin Towers has some amusing observations about trading with his longtime rival.
- If you haven't done so already, visit our Reverse Standings page to see how the 2011 draft order is shaping up.
- Pirates president Frank Coonelly repeated to Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he is "extremely disappointed" in his team. Asked how safe GM Neal Huntington and manager John Russell are, Coonelly said he is “evaluating every aspect of [the team’s] operation in order to determine how [to] get the club moving in the right direction immediately.”
- As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, the Red Sox want 2010 draft pick Anthony Ranaudo to get accustomed to pro ball, but they don't want him to pitch just yet.
- I previewed the Indians 2011 rotation last month; now Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer makes some predictions of his own right here.
Rosenthal On Rangers, Ramirez, Finances
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us another edition of Full Count. Fans of Manny Ramirez will especially enjoy this. Let's dive right in..
- Despite their recent ownership issues, the Rangers seem to have no problem with spending big. One of the reasons that they claimed Manny Ramirez on waivers was to prevent him from getting to two of their potential postseason foes, the Rays and the Yankees. It's probably for the best that they didn't submit the winning claim as seeing Ramirez or Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield would have caused some problems. Right now they should be fine offensively with Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, two big right-handed bats, coming off of the DL soon. However, they had been interested in obtaining a fourth outfielder such as Reed Johnson.
- The Dodgers could let Ramirez go to the White Sox regardless of where they are in the standings. Rosenthal notes that he has played in just three of six games since coming off of the disabled list. In the last hour we learned that the twelve-time All-Star will not start in tonight's contest against the Rockies.
- Based on this week's events it appears that Major League Baseball is doing better financially than we are led to believe. Leaked financial reports showed that the Marlins and Pirates are taking in a decent amount of money and the small-market Rays took a $4MM gamble on claiming Manny Ramirez. Rosenthal asked a GM how three teams could take that chance and the GM replied that no one really could take that risk but everyone wants to win.
Odds & Ends: Ramirez, Twins, Inge, Pirates, Dodgers
Saturday afternoon linkage..
- Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets that the Dodgers have left Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for a third consecutive game. One has to wonder if this means that the Dodgers are ready to send Ramirez to the White Sox.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) asked Twins GM Bill Smith if the club's payroll has reached $100MM. He responded, "I've quit checking."
- There's no evidence yet of serious trade talks between the Dodgers and the White Sox regarding Manny Ramirez, tweets Jon Heyman of SI.
- A source tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter) that he would be very surprised to see the Tigers trade Brandon Inge before Tuesday's deadline.
- Commissioner Bud Selig has no issue with the Pirates' financial statements which were made public earlier this week, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
- Dodgers players don't seem to be too concerned about the divorce of the McCourts in this article by Beth Harris of the Associated Press.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Winfield, Gio, Hawpe, Cubs
On this date three years ago, the Astros fired manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura. They were replaced on an interim basis by Cecil Cooper and Tal Smith, respectively. Cooper kept the job until he was fired last September, and the team is now under the direction of Brad Mills. Ed Wade took over the GM job about a month after Purpura was fired, and has held it since.
Here's a look at what's being written in the baseball corner of the web…
- Gaslamp Ball interviewed Hall of Famer Dave Winfield.
- Pirates Prospects spoke to a Certified Public Accountant about the Pirates' leaked financial records.
- Meanwhile, Pittsburgh Lumber Co. wonders if teams receiving revenue sharing money should earn a profit.
- Think Blue Crew analyzes Ryan Howard's swings and misses.
- SPANdemonium wonders what it would take to lock up Gio Gonzalez long-term.
- Rays Index revisits Andrew Friedman's biggest mistake.
- DRays Bay explains why Brad Hawpe makes sense for the Rays.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness thinks Ned Colletti should do the right thing and let Manny Ramirez go.
- Nolan Writin' looks at who the Rangers should call up on September 1st.
- Cubs Pack wonders who will play first base for the Cubbies next season.
- Yankeeist explores the idea of the Yankees signing Paul Konerko in the offseason.
- Walk Like A Sabermetrician suggests some ways to improve the waiver process.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: White Sox, Hoffman, Britton, Cubs
As Albert Pujols joins the 400-homer club, here are some items of note…
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams hinted that his club may be pursuing a lower-profile waiver wire target than Manny Ramirez, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin. This target, however, is apparently not Trevor Hoffman. Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com writes that Williams denied a report saying that the Sox put in a claim on Hoffman, but were unable to work out a trade with the Brewers.
- The Orioles are "increasingly less likely" to call up left-hander Zach Britton in September, reports MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. Britton, ranked as the 63rd-best prospect in the game by Baseball America's preseason rankings, would only be in line to start every six or seven days given Baltimore's full staff and a number of September off-days. Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun adds that Britton is already nearing his 2010 innings limit.
- The Cubs interviewed Eric Wedge today for their open manager's job, reports Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com. Levine mentions that Fredi Gonzalez, Pat Listach and Ryne Sandberg are all slated for interviews, and Chicago GM Jim Hendry wants a new manager hired before the team's November organizational meetings.
- It's "unlikely at this point" that the Diamondbacks will be making any more trades, a team executive tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.
- The Pirates were wise to get Jameson Taillon signed at an over-slot price rather than take their chances with two top-3 picks in the 2011 amateur draft, writes Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Jeff Bagwell isn't sure if he wants to return as Houston's hitting coach next season, says MLB.com's Alyson Footer.
Surprise Teams Spend On Draft
It doesn’t take Andrew Tinnish long to explain why the draft matters to the Toronto Blue Jays.
“Because we play in the toughest division in baseball with the two biggest spenders in baseball,” Tinnish told MLBTR. “It’s pretty simple for me.”
As the team’s amateur scouting director, he is responsible for infusing new talent into the organization. This year – the Blue Jays’ first season under Tinnish – the team spared no expense. Toronto signed its 2010 draftees for $11.6MM in bonuses, according to totals compiled by Baseball America. Joining the Blue Jays as the biggest spenders in the industry were the deep-pocketed Red Sox, the Nationals (who signed top pick Bryce Harper) and two others: the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians.
The Pirates, Indians and Blue Jays have pursued major league free agents cautiously, but each team spent big on draft bonuses this year. Each of those three clubs committed more to 2010 draftees than they did to last offseason’s crop of free agents. And before 2010, no team had ever committed as much in bonuses to one draft class as the Pirates ($11.9MM) and Blue Jays did this summer. Franchises that don’t or can’t spend their way to the top of the MLB standings are investing heavily in the draft because they expect top amateurs will lead to success at the major league level.
But as Tinnish points out, it’s one thing to spend and it’s another thing to find the right players.
“To me it’s not about spending,” Tinnish said. “Whether that’s an Aaron Sanchez, who obviously signed for a reasonable amount for where he was taken (supplemental first round, $775K bonus) or a Dickie Joe Thon, who signed for much more than the recommended amount for where he was selected (fifth round, $1.5MM bonus), it’s about acquiring talent.”
The Pirates haven’t had enough major league talent to post a winning record since 1992 and as an 18th-consecutive losing season unfolds, they are building through the draft. In the two months leading up to last week’s signing deadline, GM Neal Huntington committed more in bonuses than any team except the Nationals. The Pirates selected second overall, which meant they could choose any player not named Bryce Harper. But talented players with potentially intimidating demands fell to them well after the first round.
“We paid players fourth round money in the later rounds because we felt they were fourth round talent,” Huntington told MLBTR over e-mail. “And in effect, [we] added additional upper round talent to our system via this process.”
The Pirates also added top talent when they were expected to: in the first two rounds of the draft. Prep right-handers Jameson Taillon (first round, $6.5MM bonus) and Stetson Allie (second round, $2.25MM bonus) both signed for over-slot deals. Not every organization goes over-slot on its draftees and as Huntington points out, the Pirates rely on the flexibility to make those offers.
“Those resources have allowed us to aggressively add much-needed quality talent to the organization,” Huntington said.
Last summer, the Indians promised themselves that they would do the same.
“A year ago we sat down and decided that we wanted to be aggressive in the draft and try to add as much talent as we possibly could,” Indians amateur scouting director Brad Grant said. “Knowing that where we are right now as a major league organization, we need to infuse as much talent into our organization as possible.”
At that point, the Indians didn’t know they’d end up drafting Drew Pomeranz, their eventual first-round selection. They ranked potential picks based on talent, with players’ demands in mind – but only to an extent.
“We were ready to react,” Grant said. “We knew the players that we liked. We had a breakdown solely by ability and we tried to take the player we liked best.”
The Indians are prepared to spend on elite amateurs because they aren’t able to spend on elite pros.
“Especially with our market, we can’t afford to sign some of the higher-end major league free agents,” Grant said. “That gets out of our spectrum, so the best way to infuse talent into our organization is to acquire it, whether that be through the draft, whether that be through international signings, whether that be through trades, those are routes we have to take in order to acquire top talent.”
The Blue Jays drafted and developed Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero and Aaron Hill among others under former GM J.P. Ricciardi. The team is under a new regime now, but there’s no question that the Blue Jays continue to rely on the draft.
“The position we’re in, the division we’re in, I think this is an area where we need to be very aggressive and acquire as much talent as we possibly can,” Tinnish said. “[We] hope that that talent helps us in the big leagues or helps us to trade for big leaguers to eventually win the division.”
Before the 2010 season, Baseball America ranked Toronto’s system 28th among the 30 MLB organizations, but as soon as he took over for Ricciardi, Alex Anthopoulos vowed to invest heavily in scouting. Tinnish went into the draft with a willingness to commit to players demanding over-slot deals, but generally speaking, the Blue Jays are not going to out-spend the Yankees and Red Sox.
“We don’t have an unlimited budget, we don’t have unlimited payroll,” Tinnish said. “I think that for a team like us and the position we’re in … we need to draft well.”
The aftermath of the 2010 draft just concluded last week, but Tinnish has been scouting all summer and can already rattle off a dozen showcases and tournaments he has attended in preparation for the 2011 draft. The Blue Jays are not alone; other teams are doing the same.
“We’re well into 2011 already,” Grant said. ”It looks like it should shape up to be a very, very good draft year.”
Teams like the Indians, Blue Jays and Pirates are hoping so. For them, the draft is one area where they out-muscle their richer rivals.
This Date In Transaction History: Wagner, Bautista
A pair of interesting trades went down on August 25th in years past. One year ago, the Red Sox acquired reliever Billy Wagner from the Mets for a pair of players to be named later (Chris Carter and Eddie Lora). And two years ago today, the Blue Jays completed their earlier Jose Bautista trade by sending catcher Robinzon Diaz to the Pirates.
Last year Wagner was coming back from Tommy John surgery with the Mets; he'd tossed nine pro innings on the season before Boston made the deal. The Red Sox picked up the remainder of Wagner's $10.5MM salary, so the Mets saved more than $2.2MM. Wagner waived his no-trade clause, but only if the Red Sox agreed not to pick up his 2010 club option. They did, however, offer arbitration to the Type A free agent. The Sox drafted Kolbrin Vitek and Bryce Brentz with the #20 and 36 picks this year as compensation when Wagner signed with the Braves. Wagner pitched well in 13.6 regular season innings for the Red Sox. Beyond the cost savings with Wagner, the Mets have gotten some use out of Carter.
When the Jays acquired Bautista from the Pirates two years ago, it wasn't a deal of much consequence. He wasn't particularly good that year, and was widely considered a non-tender candidate after the '08 and '09 seasons. The Pirates seemingly were clearing third base for new acquisition Andy LaRoche. This year, Bautista posted one of the most surprising 40 home run seasons in recent memory and could hit 50 by year's end. There will be no non-tender rumors this winter. Diaz seemed like a decent return for Bautista at the time, but the Pirates cut him loose in November of last year. Former GM J.P. Ricciardi deserves credit; check out this passage from a CBC Sports article from September of 2008:
Following the Blue Jays' thrilling come-from-behind 8-7 win over Baltimore on Wednesday night, a fan phoned a Toronto sports radio station and criticized J.P. Ricciardi for dealing catching prospect Robinson Diaz to Pittsburgh. The general manager, who was taking calls, defended the move, saying there were players in the team's minor-league system who had developed quicker than Diaz. He also said infielder/outfielder Jose Bautista, the player Toronto received in the trade, would be a valuable part of the team in 2009 and 2010.