- Corey Brock of The Athletic takes a fascinating look at how a pair of 23-year-old first-year employees in the Mariners’ analytics department helped plant the seeds of the surprising Alex Colome/Denard Span acquisition (subscription link). David Hesslink and Skylar Shibayama led a collaborative effort to brainstorm as many different trade possibilities as they could when looking at the team’s newfound financial resources (following Robinson Cano’s suspension) and thin farm system, eventually presenting the framework of the deal to GM Jerry Dipoto. Director of analytics Jesse Smith tells Brock that the trade scenario resonated “like a light bulb clicked” with Dipoto, who went to work pursuing the deal and hammering out the financial component of the swap once the Rays proved interested. Brock’s column also takes a look at Hesslink’s unusual path to the team. The MIT grad was pursued by multiple clubs for a front office role but settled on going to Seattle after the team agreed to draft him in the 34th round and let him pitch professionally before moving to the operations side of the game if that didn’t pan out. The column provides an excellent look at the inner-workings of an unusually early trade of significance and the collaborative process the contributes to many deals throughout the league.
- The Mariners announced tonight that they’ve placed catcher Chris Herrmann on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained right oblique muscle and recalled fellow catcher David Freitas from Triple-A Tacoma in his place. Herrmann appeared in just one game for the Mariners upon having his contract selected from Tacoma over the weekend, and he’ll now be shelved for a fair amount of time, it seems, given the fact that oblique injuries can often keep players on the shelf for upwards of a month. Mike Zunino and Freitas have shouldered the bulk of the workload behind the plate for the Mariners this season, but neither has provided much in the way of offense. Zunino does have eight homers, though he’s also registered an ugly .242 on-base percentage.
Mariners Rumors
Mariners, Jayson Werth Agree To Delay Opt-Out Date
The Mariners have agreed with outfielder Jayson Werth to delay the opt-out date in his minor-league agreement, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Werth joined the organization in late March after wrapping up a seven-year run with the Nationals.
Werth’s deal had included an opt-out opportunity yesterday, per the report. But it was agreed that the date would be pushed back since Werth had recently experienced a hamstring injury. It is not known when the new opt-out opportunity will arise.
Since he has joined the roster at Triple-A Tacoma, Werth has appeared in 27 games and turned in a .219/.315/.417 slash over 111 plate appearances. He has four home runs with a 28:12 K/BB ratio.
Needless to say, those aren’t overwhelming offensive numbers, particularly for a player who just turned 39 and has struggled in the big leagues in recent years. Still, Werth might have earned a MLB promotion had it not been for the M’s recent acquisition of his former outfield mate Denard Span. And he could still be considered for a bench role at some point if an injury arises or if the club decides it would like to have a right-handed-hitting complement for Span.
Twins Claim Taylor Motter
The Twins have claimed infielder Taylor Motter off waivers from the Mariners, per announcements from both teams. Motter will report to the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate.
Motter, whom the Mariners designated on Sunday, will now join his third major league organization. Motter debuted with the Rays in 2016 and has since racked up 390 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. While Motter hasn’t hit much (.198/.269/.326), he has done his best to offset a lack of offense with defensive versatility. The 28-year-old is primarily a shortstop, but he has also totaled at least 10 games’ experience at every corner position and second base.
Motter has spent most of this season at Triple-A, and given that he has an option remaining, he’s able to serve as minors depth without issue. But it’s possible he’ll eventually get an opportunity at short in Minnesota, where starter Ehire Adrianza has been woeful at the plate.
Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Shot At Playoff Berth?
As the 2018 MLB season nears the one-third mark, the playoff races in each league are beginning to take shape. While it’s no surprise that the majority of the sport’s so-called super teams have lived up to the billing thus far, several unexpected contenders may be emerging to challenge for postseason berths. None of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates were popular playoff picks entering the campaign, but all are in contention at this point, and a few of those teams even possess elite records.
The most successful of those clubs has been Seattle, which is one of just five teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Mariners have raced to a 32-20 mark (.615), the fourth-best record in the American League, even though they’ve had to go without superstar second baseman Robinson Cano for two weeks and won’t get him back in the near future. Cano suffered a fractured right hand in mid-May, but the 80-game suspension he incurred almost immediately after that injury is the more costly blow because it’ll render him ineligible for the playoffs – if the Mariners qualify, that is.
A postseason berth for Seattle would be its first since 2001, thus snapping the longest playoff drought in American sports. There’s clearly plenty of work for that to happen, particularly for a team that hasn’t been spectacular statistically and possesses a less shiny 27-25 Pythagorean record. But the Mariners’ actual record right now is so impressive that they won’t need to be great from here on out to remain firmly in the mix throughout the regular season. FanGraphs is projecting a mediocre 56-54 win-loss total over the Mariners’ final 110 games, but even in that scenario, they’d finish with 88 victories – three more than Minnesota amassed in 2017 en route to an AL wild-card berth.
The wild card is likely the M’s only path to the playoffs, as even though they’re just one game out of the AL West race, there’s little question the reigning World Series champion Astros will pull away with the division. Given the talent in the AL, a wild-card spot will be tough to come by for the Mariners, but general manager Jerry Dipoto seemingly increased his team’s odds last week when he acquired reliever Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span from the Rays. The Mariners already owned one of baseball’s best bullpens without Colome, and his presence should make Seattle an even harder out in close games. At 15-8, the Mariners have been one of the majors’ top teams in one-run contests this season.
Staying in the AL West, Oakland has perhaps exceeded expectations at 28-25, though it has scored fewer runs than it has allowed (234 to 237). Still, despite its underwhelming Pythagorean mark (26-27), FanGraphs is projecting an above-.500 final record for Oakland (82-80) – which would be its first such season since 2014 and could keep it in the discussion into September. However, with the Yankees or Red Sox (whichever team doesn’t win the AL East), Angels and Mariners among the teams fighting for two wild-card positions, a playoff position looks a bit unrealistic for the A’s.
Over in the National League, both the Braves (30-21) and Phillies (29-21) have gone from serving as longtime NL East doormats to looking like two of the premier teams in the game. Milwaukee, arguably a surprise team but one that did garner some preseason hype after winning 86 games in 2017, is the lone NL club with a superior record to Atlanta and Philadelphia. And only the Cubs have a better run differential than the Braves, who have outscored their opponents by 60 (261 to 201).
The Braves’ arduous, years-long rebuild is clearly paying dividends now, as a host of players under the age of 25 – including Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna (who’s now on the DL), Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara and A.J. Minter – have been among their driving forces this year. With that group joining a few slightly older, already established players (superstar Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Mike Foltynewicz, to name a few), Atlanta looks as if it’s going to be around for a long time. And it might be ready now to return to the playoffs, where it hasn’t been since 2013, though the NL East is going to be a dogfight with both the Phillies and favored Nationals (29-22) right behind the Braves.
As for those Phillies, they own an even longer playoff drought than the Braves (six years), but that streak doesn’t look as if it’ll last much longer. Like Atlanta, Philadelphia went through a few years of suffering while simultaneously managing to stockpile young talent (Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Seranthony Dominguez, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Scott Kingery) that has either already established itself in the majors or is in the midst of doing so. Philly’s also a sleeping giant in terms of payroll, a club capable of spending alongside other big-money juggernauts, and it’ll put that advantage to use in the coming years. It already started last winter with the expensive free-agent signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, two additions which have paid off so far (Santana did endure a poor April, but he’s gotten off the mat this month).
As with the Braves, the Phillies should be around for a while, and a playoff spot this year certainly isn’t out of the question. Although, despite their tremendous starts, FanGraphs is projecting both teams to finish with 82 wins and extend their playoff droughts.
Baseball’s other Pennsylvania-based team, the low-payroll Pirates, lost the battle for public opinion over the winter when they traded two veteran cornerstones (Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole) for younger players and didn’t sign any free agents to major league contracts. Some Pirates fans even called for owner Bob Nutting to sell the team in the wake of those deals, but he didn’t oblige.
Now, the Pirates are a solid 28-24 (plus-22 run) and have gotten there with some help from Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove, two players acquired in the Cole package. Fellow offseason acquisition Corey Dickerson – whom general manager Neal Huntington stole from the Rays in another trade – has been even better, while veteran holdovers Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli are also amid excellent seasons. Pittsburgh may be able to hang in the race all year, then, for the first time since 2015 – its most recent playoff berth. It’s going to be an extremely tall task to actually return to the postseason, though, with six NL teams – including the division-rival Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings and several more breathing down its neck.
Every year in baseball, surprise teams emerge to upset the preseason apple cart. Just as the Twins, Diamondbacks and Rockies crashed the playoff party last year, at least one of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates could do it in 2018. The question is: Which team has the best chance to play into the fall?
(poll link for app users)
Mariners Designate Taylor Motter
The Mariners have designated infielder Taylor Motter for assignment, the team announced. His 40-man roster spot will go to catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann, whom they selected from Triple-A Tacoma.
Motter has been with the Mariners organization since they acquired him from the Rays in November 2016, though he may now be on his way to another franchise. With one minor league option remaining, a club could acquire Motter in a trade or via waivers and use him as depth.
The 28-year-old Motter hasn’t impressed offensively since debuting in 2016, having recorded a .198/.269/.326 line in 390 trips to the plate. Motter brings defensive versatility, though, with major league experience at every position but catcher (including one appearance as a pitcher).
Mariners Select Chris Herrmann
The Mariners have selected catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann from Triple-A, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. The club sent fellow catcher David Freitas to Triple-A in a corresponding 25-man move, though the Mariners will still need to create a 40-man spot for Herrmann.
The 30-year-old Herrmann is in the Mariners’ starting lineup Sunday, which will be his first major league action of the season. He previously played in the majors with the Twins (2012-15) and Diamondbacks (2016-17), combining for a .202/.278/.344 line in 811 plate appearances. Herrmann remained with the D-backs organization through the offseason, but they released him in late March and he quickly hooked on with the Mariners on a minors pact.
Herrmann earned his promotion to the Mariners with a solid offensive showing in Tacoma, where he opened 2018 with a .266/.424/.444 line and six home runs across 177 PAs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Freitas fared decently at the MLB level, meanwhile, with a .217/.321/.304 slash in 55 trips to the plate. But for now, he’ll cede the role of Mike Zunino’s backup to Herrmann.
Jean Segura, Nick Vincent Dealing With Injuries
- The surging Mariners picked up another win Saturday to move to 31-20, though they may have lost a couple important contributors in the process. Shortstop Jean Segura exited after being kicked in the head, and manager Scott Servais said afterward that he’d enter concussion protocol, while reliever Nick Vincent departed with a strained right groin (Twitter links via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). A DL stint seems like a good possibility for Vincent, who ranks third among Mariners in relievers in innings (22) and has logged a 4.09 ERA with 9.41 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9. The Mariners will presumably know more Sunday on Vincent and Segura, one of their offensive catalysts. Segura has slashed .329/.345/.469 with four home runs and 12 stolen bases in 226 PAs this season.
Padres Lack Interest In Mariners' Farm System
- Padres outfielder Travis Jankowski has drawn trade interest, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported before the Mariners-Rays swap. It seems the Mariners tried for Jankowski prior to landing Span, but according to Divish, the Padres didn’t show much interest in the M’s low-ranked farm system. Known mostly for his speed and defense, the 26-year-old Jankowski has gotten off to a .313/.382/.400 start at the plate in 89 attempts this season. He’s controllable through the 2021 season.
Mariners Acquire Alex Colome, Denard Span
7:24pm: The Mariners will receive $4.75MM from the Rays, per Tim Booth of the Associated Press (via Twitter), an amount that rather significantly alters the math of the trade.
5:16pm: In a stunning early-season swap, the Mariners have acquired reliever Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span from the Rays, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times originally reported on Twitter. Righties Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero will go to Tampa Bay in return, as Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter) and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter) first reported.
An as-yet-unknown amount of cash is also going to Seattle in the swap. Reliever David Phelps, who is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, was moved to the 60-day DL to open a roster spot.
M’s GM Jerry Dipoto has overseen his fair share of surprising swaps since taking the helm in Seattle, and this certainly rates near the top of the list. The club is off to a nice start (29-20), but just lost Robinson Cano for eighty games (and the postseason) due to a suspension and Dee Gordon for a stretch due to a broken toe.
Of course, the Cano suspension also freed up around $11MM in cash for the organization to deploy elsewhere. The new additions are earning $11MM (Span) and $5.3MM (Colome) for the season, so they are owed almost exactly that amount (around $11.2MM) the rest of the way. (There could still be some Cano savings left over, as we don’t yet know how much cash the Rays will send in the deal.)
Colome is surely the headliner of this deal. He has served as the closer in Tampa Bay for the past three seasons, racking up 95 saves in that span. He’ll be eligible for arbitration one final time over the offseason, so there’s some future value here for the M’s.
When he moved to the bullpen full-time in 2016, Colome looked like a star. But he wasn’t quite as exciting last year, when he carried a 3.24 ERA but managed only 7.8 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 for the year. Of particular note, his swinging-strike rate dropped to a less-than-dominant 11.6% level.
It has been something of the opposite story thus far in 2018. Colome sports only a 4.15 ERA but has struck out 9.6 and walked 3.3 batters per nine while carrying a 54.5% groundball rate. A low strand rate (65.4%) and high BABIP-against (.354) help explain the discord.
With Colome having returned to a healthier 13.9% swinging-strike rate and continuing to deliver his typical 95.5 mph heater and ~89 to 90 mph cutter, the Mariners will bet that he returns to more dominant results in a high-leverage role. Of course, they won’t ask him to handle the ninth, which will likely remain the domain of young fireballer Edwin Diaz.
Span has now been dealt twice in the final year of his contract. The 34-year-old no longer moves as well as he once did, but is still a polished hitter. He is off to an interesting start to the 2018 season, carrying a whopping 16.2% walk rate (well above his career average) and a typically stingy 13.9% strikeout rate. He’s producing at a solid .238/.364/.385 rate despite carrying a meager .259 batting average on balls in play and quality of contact estimates (.359 xwOBA vs. .332 wOBA) that suggest some poor fortune.
On the other side of the agreement, the Rays have again acted to shave a fair bit of salary obligations. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the ability to move Span’s contract — which itself was acquired only to offset partially the money the Giants took on in the offseason’s Evan Longoria swap — was a strong motivating factor.
Still, they’ll also recoup some talent here. Moore, 23, has had plenty of success in the minors and reached the big leagues last year. He’s not really regarded as a high-ceiling hurler, but could be a near-term option that fits the Rays’ current model that relies upon multi-inning relievers. Moore owns a 3.04 ERA in 50 1/3 innings this year at Double-A, allowing six home runs on 38 total hits while maintaining a 47:14 K/BB ratio.
Romero, 20, was a 15th-round pick last year. But he has shown well thus far as a professional. In his 44 innings in the current campaign, which have come over nine starts at the Class A level, Romero owns a 2.45 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Gonzales Discusses Rehab, Curveball, Analytics
- Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales chatted with Corey Brock of The Athletic in an interesting Q&A about his return from Tommy John surgery, the process of reestablishing trust in his curveball and his use of data and analytics. The 26-year-old said he feels like this is “the best curveball I’ve had in my career,” explaining that because he’s largely recovered from TJ surgery, his grip strength is improved and he can throw from his natural arm slot. Gonzales, though, added that he doesn’t feel that he (or any other pitcher) can ever say he’s 100 percent recovered from such a major surgery. “It’s a constant job,” Gonzales said of managing his recovery. “And it’s something I take a lot of pride in, getting my arm ready each day. It’s 45 minutes worth of stuff each day to make sure I’m feeling good. Even on days when I don’t need to do it, I still do it because it helps me feel secure. I think that’s what the rehab process did: give me some pride and some conviction in how I go about my routine.” Gonzales has turned in a 4.05 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 53 1/3 innings this season, with FIP (3.22) and xFIP (3.20) looking even more favorably upon his work.
