- The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games. As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.” If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload. You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue. How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?” Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.
Cardinals Rumors
Latest On White Sox’s Managerial Search
Finding a manager is one of the first orders of offseason business for the White Sox. Chicago dismissed Pedro Grifol in early August. Grady Sizemore finished the season on an interim basis. While Sox GM Chris Getz left the door ajar for Sizemore to take the full-time job, Getz had previously indicated that the team was likely to go outside the organization for a solution.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Sox’s early list of targets includes Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso, and former Angels skipper Phil Nevin. That’s not an exhaustive set of candidates, nor is it clear if anyone from that trio will actually interview.
Nevin is the only one of that group with previous managerial experience. The former All-Star infielder took over the Halos on an interim basis when Los Angeles fired Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Angels signed Nevin to a one-year extension covering the ’23 campaign. They decided not to re-sign him last winter on the heels of a 73-89 season. Nevin interviewed for the Padres’ vacancy that eventually went to Mike Shildt. He did not coach this past season.
Venable and Descalso are more recently retired players who have long been viewed as potential future managers. Venable had spent time as Alex Cora’s bench coach with the Red Sox before accepting the associate manager role under Bruce Bochy in 2022. He has held that position in Texas for the past two years. Venable won a World Series ring during his first season in Arlington. He took himself out of consideration for managerial roles early last winter, reportedly declining a chance to interview with the Mets for the job which went to Carlos Mendoza.
While Venable has been on coaching staffs for the past seven years, Descalso has just one season of MLB coaching experience. The former Cardinals infielder took the bench coach role with St. Louis last offseason. He spent this year as Oli Marmol’s top lieutenant and has also worked in the Diamondbacks’ front office since retiring as a player in 2021.
Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $73MM through 2027
- Sonny Gray, RHP: $65MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
- Willson Contreras, C: $59.5MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
- Miles Mikolas, RHP: $16MM through 2025
- Steven Matz, LHP: $12MM through 2025
- Erick Fedde, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
Option Decisions
- Kyle Gibson, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Lance Lynn, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Keynan Middleton, RHP: $6MM club option with $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
- JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
- John King (3.145): $1.5MM
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
- Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.
It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.
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How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?
The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.
While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.
With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.
Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.
That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).
While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.
How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
Cardinals Part Ways With Hitting Coach Turner Ward
The Cardinals will have a new hitting coach next season. The team has decided not to offer Turner Ward a contract for 2025, Katie Woo reports for The Athletic.
Ward spent the past two seasons as the Cardinals hitting coach, overseeing an underwhelming offense both years. In that time, St. Louis ranked 21st in runs scored (1391), 16th in OPS (.723), and 17th in wRC+ (101). Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they are certainly disappointing for a team with postseason aspirations. Not all the blame for this mediocre offense should land on Turner; after all, he was the assistant hitting coach in 2022, when the Cardinals’ offense was surprisingly potent, ranking sixth in runs scored (772), fifth in OPS (.745), and seventh in wRC+ (112). However, it’s not hard to understand why the Cardinals were ready to move on.
The Cardinals are expected to keep assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen on staff, though it’s unclear if they will promote Allen or seek their new hitting coach elsewhere. Woo also notes that game-planning coach Packy Elkins and first-base coach Stubby Clapp will return in 2025. However, her latest piece does not mention assistant pitching coach Julio Rangel, another Cardinals coach whose contract was set to expire at the end of the season. Bench coach Daniel Descalso and pitching coach Dusty Blake are under contract through 2025, while third-base coach Pop Warner is under contract through 2026 (per Woo).
Prior to his time with the Cardinals, Ward worked as an assistant hitting coach for the Diamondbacks and a hitting coach for the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Reds. He is now free to seek his next coaching opportunity with a new organization.
Diamond Sports Group Planning To Cut Ties With 11 MLB Clubs
Diamond Sports Group said in court today that it plans to broadcast just one MLB club next year, the Braves, per reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The company, which owns the Bally Sports Networks, also had deals with the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Rays but plans on walking away from those. As Drellich notes, as part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, they can accept and reject contracts though the measures have to be approved by the court. The Brewers, Guardians, Twins and Rangers had one-year deals with Diamond for 2024. Those 11 clubs will now have to renegotiate new deals with Diamond or find other broadcasting arrangements.
Drellich provides some more specifics on X, noting that it’s more complicated than Diamond simply abandoning these 11 clubs, but that seems to be the company’s goal regardless. Alden González of ESPN adds some more details, noting that a confirmation hearing has been set for November 14 and 15 in Houston. The Marlins and Diamond have mutual interest in working out a new deal, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The Angels are working on a new deal with Diamond, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
Per Drellich, league representatives said they were “sandbagged” by the news. “We have no information about what is being done,” said Jim Bromley, lawyer for MLB. “We’ve had no opportunity to review and now we’re in front of the court and being asked to make our comments.”
The ongoing financial situation of Diamond Sports Group has been a significant part of baseball’s economic landscape for a long time and this could prove to be a major development as part of that narrative. Largely due to cord cutting, the regional sports network model has been gradually collapsing in recent history. In the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that Diamond was in rough shape financially and the company filed for bankruptcy before the 2023 MLB season began.
They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during that 2023 campaign. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs and continued those broadcasts through this year. Now it seems like the company is continuing down this path but with an even more aggressive severing of their existing ties to Major League Baseball.
This is bound to have short-term effects on clubs and players. These contracts have been sources of significant revenue for clubs, as MLBTR covered earlier this year. The 11 teams that Diamond plans to cut ties with were previously receiving between $33MM (Brewers) and $125MM (Angels) on an annual basis. Per reporting in April, the Padres were set to receive about $60MM in 2023 before their deal with Diamond collapsed. The league reportedly covered about 80% of those fees last year but didn’t plan to do so in 2024 and beyond.
Uncertainty around broadcast revenue seemingly played a major role in the 2023-24 offseason, which was disappointing for players. Teams like the Padres, Rangers, Twins and others were either cutting payroll or not increasing it as much as had previously been expected, with the TV situation often being used as justification. This appeared to play a role in various free agents not finding markets as strong as they had anticipated and many of them lingered unsigned into the early months of 2024 and/or signed for deals well below projections. It seems fair to expect that similar narratives could emerge in the coming winter.
Per González, a company source says that Diamond is still hoping to sign new deals with the 11 clubs being cut out today. However, that would presumably involve reduce fee payments, such as those received by the Guardians, Twins and Rangers this year. As mentioned up top, the Marlins and Angels seem to expect to continue their relationship with Diamond/Bally in 2025, though negotiating new deals may take some time.
In the long-term picture, MLB might be happy to be further cutting ties with Diamond. They have continually expressed skepticism about the company’s plans to stay afloat. Diamond has tried various methods of refinancing, including signing a streaming deal with Amazon, but the league hasn’t seemed convinced that any of the company’s plans would lead to long-term stability.
As mentioned, the league has already started selling some games to fans in direct-to-customer fashion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has aspirations of marketing a digital streaming package consisting of several MLB teams, which fans could watch without blackout restrictions. MLB.TV already exists and allows fans to watch most games, but the RSN deals lead to certain teams being blacked out in the areas covered by those deals.
Having less commitment with Diamond going forward will increase the viability of that streaming plan over the years to come. However, as mentioned, less TV revenue figures to have a sizeable impact on the short-term economics of the game. This will lead to ripple effects throughout the upcoming offseason and will likely be worrisome for certain players hitting the open market in the coming weeks. New deals could be negotiated between now and the 2025 season, which could put some money back on the table, though likely less than in previous years.
There is also the matter of the fan experience, as there were times in 2024 where the Braves were not available on TV to some customers during a dispute between Bally’s and Comcast. For fans of these 11 clubs today, they will have to keep an eye on the proceedings to determine if their favorite club will still be accessed in the ways they are accustomed to or if they will have to switch to some new broadcast model.
MLBTR Podcast: Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants firing president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and giving the job to Buster Posey (1:15)
- The Cardinals will replace president of baseball operations John Mozeliak with Chaim Bloom after 2025 (15:05)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What return could the Cardinals expect for Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley? (28:40)
- Where will Paul Goldschmidt sign? (37:55)
- What is the Guardians’ rotation going to look like in 2025 and is a Shane Bieber reunion possible? (41:30)
- Do the Marlins have to turn the page on Edward Cabrera and Jesús Sánchez? (46:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here
- The Matt Chapman Negotiations, Dodgers’ Pitching Injuries, And Strengths And Weaknesses Of Playoff Contenders – listen here
- Matt Chapman’s Extension, Star Prospect Promotions, Bo Bichette’s Future In Toronto – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Chaim Bloom To Replace John Mozeliak As Cardinals President Of Baseball Operations After 2025
The Cardinals held a press conference today featuring chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., club president Bill DeWitt III, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and advisor Chaim Bloom. DeWitt Jr. announced at the press conference that Bloom would be taking over the Mozeliak’s POBO role after 2025 and has signed a five-year contract. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat was among those to relay the details (X links). That contract starts in 2026, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (X link). Mozeliak adds that he will make day-to-day decisions through 2025 but but long-term decisions will involve Bloom and ownership, per Jones (X link). Also, Michael Girsch is no longer the general manager, with his title now changed to vice president of special projects. Mozeliak says he expects player payroll to go down, per Goold (X link).
There had been a lot of smoke in recent days that significant changes were coming to the front office. A week ago, Jones reported that some notable developments would be announced at today’s press conference. Around that same time, Bob Nightengale of USA Today had reported that Bloom was likely ticketed for a larger role. A few days later, Katie Woo of The Athletic provided some more details, noting that Bloom would be overhauling the club’s player development. As part of that overhaul, the club planned to redirect resources away from the major league roster and towards improving their minor league pipeline. On the weekend, Nightengale reported further on the club, noting that the payroll reduction could lead to right-hander Sonny Gray winding up on the trading block. Meanwhile, a report from Goold aligned with Woo’s info, noting that the club planned to take a long-term focus on their player development. Woo herself added another report which noted that the club planned to move on from long-time first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Today’s announcements all line up with that reporting, though also take it a step further. Though no one is using words like “rebuild” or “retool” or anything along those lines, it seems there is a general understanding that the club will be placing less of a focus on results in the immediate present with more of an eye on long-term and/or sustainable roster construction.
For most of this century, the Cardinals have had a strong track record in terms of finding and developing young talent. That allowed them to generally post strong on-field results despite never being one of the top spenders in the league. From the year 2000 to the present, they have only missed the playoffs nine times and only finished with a losing record twice.
That cutting edge has seemingly gone a bit dull in most recent years, however. From 2000 to 2015, they only once missed the playoffs twice in a row, which was in 2007 and 2008. But that was sandwiched in between two World Series titles in 2006 and 2011. From 2016 to 2024, the club has missed the playoffs five times. Of their four postseason appearances from 2019 to 2022, three of them ended with losses in the Wild Card round. While the club rebounded somewhat from a losing season in 2023, getting over .500 in 2024, they did so with a good chunk of the roster consisting of pricey veterans in their mid-30s. That includes Goldschmidt, Gray, Nolan Arenado, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas.
Per the recent reporting leading up to today’s conference, it seems the decision makers have come to the conclusion that they have been hampered by redirecting their focus to the major league roster, which has hurt the club’s player development pipeline. Recent years have seen players like Randy Arozarena, Adolis García, Zac Gallen and others thriving after departing the organization. Meanwhile, some of the club’s young prospects like Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and others have struggled to live up to expectations.
Every organization will have some of those misses, but it seems the club realizes that they need to change their hit rate in order to find success. As a mid-market club that doesn’t generally sign top free agents, good player development is fairly essential for running out winning ball clubs.
Bloom will be entrusted with making those changes, though he won’t be given carte blanche right away. As detailed by Mozeliak up top, it seems he will handle the basic running of the club for the next year as Bloom focuses on things under the hood. That presumably will involve tackling things away from the majors, from the minor league facilities, coaches, scouting departments and things of that nature. After a year of making changes in those capacities, he will eventually take over the baseball decisions in a more complete capacity.
During his tenure as the chief baseball officer for the Red Sox, Bloom had some hits and misses but the are good reasons why the Cardinals have picked him for this role. Bloom made some odds choices in Boston, such as selling at the 2022 deadline but staying narrowly above the competitive balance tax. The signings of Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida haven’t really worked out so far.
But a lot of Boston’s future is made up of players acquired during Bloom’s time, either through the draft, international free agency or trades. Though the 2022 deadline was odd at the time, getting Enmanuel Valdéz and Wilyer Abreu for a few months of Christian Vázquez now looks like a big win. Plucking Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the in the 2020 Rule 5 draft was a nice pull. Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis and Kristian Campbell are all on top 100 prospect lists and were acquired during Bloom’s time.
As he ramps up to take over, Mozeliak will be preparing to wind things down. Though the recent results have stirred up the anger of many fans in the St. Louis area, Mozeliak is connected to much of the clubs’ aforementioned success earlier this century. He joined the club’s scouting department in 1995, just a few years before they kicked off that strong run of success. He worked his way up to eventually take over the general manager role going into the 2008 season.
The club has largely been a mainstay of the postseason in that time, including winning the World Series in 2011. There has been an apparent tapering off of the club’s momentum in recent years, though even before that, it seemed like Mozeliak was leaning towards transitioning away from his current role. Back in February of 2023, before the club’s disappointing results in the two most recent campaigns, Mozeliak gave some hints that he was heading out the door eventually.
“I know there is going to be some change coming over the next few years,” he said at that time. “We certainly want to give individuals within the organization opportunities to grow and expand some of their roles, and over the course of the next year or so we’ll work through that.”
At that point, it seemed fair to conclude that he was talking about Girsch, who had been in the organization since 2006. He had been promoted to general manager in 2017, working as Mozeliak’s top lieutenant since then. Girsch had been signed to a multi-year extension in October 2022, just a few months prior to Mozeliak’s comments.
But Bloom was fired by the Red Sox in September of 2023 and then landed an advisory role with the Cards in January of 2024. It seems that Bloom has surpassed Girsch at some point, either based on his track record with Boston or something he has shown them since taking on that advisory role.
Girsch has now been given a new title, which is perhaps a favor to him in a sense. With Bloom now blocking his path to a promotion with the Cards, this sends a signal to other clubs. If any front office positions open up elsewhere and another team is interested in Girsch, he will now seem more available than he did a few weeks ago. Clubs generally allow their personnel to interview with other clubs if a promotion is involved, so the Cards could be open to Girsch pursuing a role somewhere else if the opportunity arises. Per Woo on X, the club doesn’t plan to hire another GM in the short term, likely waiting until Bloom takes over next year. Woo also relays in a column at The Athletic that Girsch is under contract for one more year.
As the weeks and months roll along, more specifics should emerge about the organization and their plans. But from the news today and in recent weeks, it’s clear that the main idea is change, a new direction that should have significant ramifications for years to come.
Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter
The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.
Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.
Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.
If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.
With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.
Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.
Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.
While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.
Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.
None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.
Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.
Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.
After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Cardinals Pursuing “Shift In Philosophy”; John Mozeliak, Oliver Marmol To Remain In Current Roles
The Cardinals’ 83-79 record is a big improvement on their dismal 71-91 mark from 2023, yet the team still ended up well short of the playoffs, let alone in any serious contention. Multiple reports over the last few days have indicated that the team will respond to the situation with a planned overhaul of both the player development department and minor league system, which could include some paring of the big league payroll so the Cards can reinvest in the lower levels of the organizational ladder.
While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t discuss payroll during an interview with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Mozeliak did confirm several of these earlier reports, and an overall “shift in philosophy” for the team. “Instead of looking for short-term answers, we’re going to try to take more of a long view,” Mozeliak said.
To this end, the Cardinals are “shifting to a heavy emphasis that puts it back on scouting and player development. I would say that over the past 10 years or so we’ve run a lean operation, and part of that was to allow us to maximize success at the major-league level. But over time you learn that machine can wear down. It’s just not producing at the level it once did. That’s not to say our minor leagues are in disarray. But an emphasis on infrastructure is something we have been taking a very serious look at.”
Chaim Bloom will indeed be taking on “a more impactful role” within the St. Louis front office after spending the last year as an adviser with the team. Bloom will continue to work with the MLB roster but seems to largely be focused on the player development side, and Mozeliak didn’t specify what (if any) exact title Bloom might have in this expanded role. In general, however, Mozeliak said Bloom’s “voice on the decision tree is going up. He’s no longer observing. It’s about helping implement a plan.”
Mozeliak will still be the lead voice in the baseball ops department, as he told Goold that he’ll return in his current role for the 2025 season. Mozeliak has been running the Cardinals’ front office since the 2007-08 offseason, and at the time of his last contract extension, he stated that he would gradually be looking to scale back some duties to others in advance of the end of that extension, which is up after the 2025 campaign. The Cards’ recent struggles led to some speculation that Mozeliak might step down a year early or at least move into another role in the organization, in order to let Bloom, GM Mike Girsch, or someone else take over as the team’s new president of baseball ops.
Oliver Marmol will also be returning as manager in 2025, Mozeliak confirmed. Marmol signed an extension last spring that runs through the 2026 season, so between that deal and the Cardinals’ improvement from 2023, it isn’t exactly a surprise that Marmol will return to the dugout. Of course, Marmol also drew a lot of criticism given the lack of playoff baseball in St. Louis over the last two seasons, leading to whispers that the team could potentially replace him with another prominent Cardinal name (i.e. Yadier Molina, or the newly-available Skip Schumaker).
“As we shift, I think Oli is going to be someone who has a tremendous coaching and development background,” Mozeliak said. “So I think some of his strengths will really shine as we make that shift directionally on what we’re going to look like for the next couple of years.”
While Mozeliak and Marmol will return, some level of changes are expected within the front office, and perhaps to Marmol’s coaching staff. It is perhaps notable that Mozeliak seemingly didn’t address Girsch’s status in the interview with Goold, though there isn’t any indication that Girsch’s job could be in jeopardy. Girsch signed an extension of an undisclosed length following the 2022 season, and he has been with St. Louis in variety of roles since 2006, including the general manager’s position since the 2017 season.
More details on the Cardinals’ plans will be revealed by Mozeliak and team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. in a press conference on Monday. Some more light could be shed on what exactly the Cards’ renewed focus on player development might mean for the 26-man roster and the team’s offseason spending. Mozeliak made no mention of a rebuild, or reshuffle, or any other buzzword used to describe a step back from contending, and it is hard to imagine the St. Louis fanbase would take kindly to such a change in direction from an organization so used to consistent success.
The Cardinals haven’t had consecutive losing records (in non-shortened seasons) since 1958-59, a streak that continued with this year’s 83-win campaign. Still, just getting back over .500 wasn’t enough for many St. Louis fans, as attendance dropped under the three-million mark this season.
“I understand from a fan perspective expectations are high,” Mozeliak said. “I’d be lying to you if I said I didn’t notice it. We certainly want to get back to creating a game-day experience that our fans appreciate and want to experience and enjoy. Part of that obviously is winning baseball. Part of that is enhancing that experience.”
