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Cardinals Notes: Pujols, Wacha, Taveras

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The Cardinals' selection of Albert Pujols (13th round, 1999) is the best draft pick in MLB history, says Dan Szymborski of ESPN (Insider-only). Szymborski uses a non-linear model to assess the WAR value of each draft pick, then compares actual picks to their expected value over nine years to create a list of the top 100 picks in draft history. Szymborski notes that the fact that Pujols was so good from the very beginning of his career made him particularly valuable as a draft pick, since the Cards didn't have to wait for a few years after his debut for him to become a superstar. Here are more notes on the Redbirds.

Cardinals To Promote Michael Wacha

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The Cardinals announced today they will promote righty Michael Wacha to start Thursday against the Royals, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports and others.  The Cards had scratched Wacha from his Monday start in anticipation of the possibility of having him start Thursday in place of the injured John Gast.  The Cardinals will need a 40-man roster spot for Wacha, but that can be opened easily by transferring Jaime Garcia to the 60-day DL.

Wacha, 21, was drafted 19th overall by the Cardinals last year out of Texas A&M, a pick the team received from the Angels as part of the compensation for the loss of Albert Pujols.  Wacha made nine starts at Triple-A this year, posting a 2.05 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 0.85 HR/9 in 52 2/3 innings.  He'll be the fourth member of the 2012 draft class to reach the bigs, after Paco Rodriguez of the Dodgers, Kevin Gausman of the Orioles, and Michael Roth of the Angels.  Prior to the season, Wacha ranked 76th on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list and the same on MLB.com's, failing to rank on Keith Law's list for ESPN.  Law, however, elevated Wacha to #24 on a top 25 prospects list released today. 

Baseball America ranked Wacha sixth among Cardinals prospects, as he was part of what they considered the best farm system in baseball given the presence of Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, and Kolten Wong.  BA wrote that Wacha had the best changeup in the 2012 draft, adding, "It's easy to project him as a mid-rotation starter, and he could turn into something more if he finds a reliable breaking ball."  He may have since found it, as Law wrote today, "Multiple scouts have told me they've seen an above-average breaking ball from Wacha this year, which was the main concern about him coming out of Texas A&M last June."

Will there be room in the Cardinals' rotation for Wacha beyond Thursday?  Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, and Miller are holding down the first three spots, Garcia is out for the season, Chris Carpenter had a setback, and Jake Westbrook's elbow is improving.  Tyler Lyons is in the rotation mix, Martinez could be at some point, and Gast could be as well when he's healthy.  

If he stays up all year, Wacha will accumulate 123 days of big league service, making Super Two arbitration eligibility possible after the 2015 season.  It's unknown whether that amount of service will put him within the top 22% of the two-to-three class at that point.  Super Two players go to arbitration four times instead of the usual three, thus earning extra money.

Quick Hits: Wacha, Kawasaki, Mariners, Gomez

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The Cardinals will need another starter on Thursday to replace John Gast, and that could be Michael Wacha, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. Wacha, who would be making his big-league debut, was scratched from his start Sunday, which the Cardinals now say is due to his innings count so far this year. Wacha ranked No. 76 in both MLB.com's and Baseball America's preseason top prospects lists, and he has pitched well so far in 2013 at Triple-A Memphis (albeit with a low strikeout rate), posting a 2.05 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Cards GM John Mozeliak says that the team will likely decide on Tuesday who will make Thursday's start. Here are more notes from around the majors.

  • It's unclear what will happen to infielder Munenori Kawasaki of the Blue Jays once Jose Reyes returns, but Jays manager John Gibbons would like Kawasaki to stick around, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports. "When the time comes, we'd definitely like to keep him, that's for sure. But we don't know when Reyes is coming back, either." Kawasaki has become a fan favorite, and he has played decently, hitting .247/.345/.320. But Chisholm notes that the Jays already have Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa.
  • It's a bad day for the Mariners' rebuilding efforts, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes. The Mariners promoted prospect Nick Franklin but demoted former No. 2 overall draft pick Dustin Ackley in the process. That move followed the demotion of Jesus Montero. Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders haven't hit particularly well, and Brandon Maurer has struggled. "Right now, the Mariners are being carried by a bunch of veterans on one-year deals who were supposed to be here to round out that young core and help stabilize the environment through which young guys were going to take their games to the next level," says Baker, noting that Kyle Seager is the only starting player who has accomplished that.
  • Ron Gardenhire feels Carlos Gomez of the Brewers "learned a lot" from his time with the Twins, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports. Gomez played with the Twins for two years before heading to Milwaukee in exchange for J.J. Hardy after the 2009 season. The Twins tried to help Gomez calm down as a player, McCalvy writes. "I thought he learned a lot with us," Gardenhire says. "Gomez was a lot of fun. I think everybody knew it from the time he was with the Mets, how much talent he had, if he could ever harness it and calm himself down enough."
  • It's questionable whether the Angels and Dodgers have spent their money well, but it's important that they're spending, says Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "You can't win on scouting and player development alone. That is a foundation, with free agency a necessary supplement. Spending does not guarantee winning, but spending absolutely correlates with winning," says Shaikin. Still, Shaikin notes that the Angels' core of homegrown players includes Mike Trout, Jered Weaver, and Howie Kendrick; the Dodgers' includes Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Shaikin quotes Dodgers president Stan Kasten, who reiterates that his team's long-term plan is to build through its farm system, just as the Braves did when Kasten worked there.
  • The Cubs aren't quite ready to declare themselves sellers, but it sounds like they're getting there, ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers reports. GM Jed Hoyer says that teams begin to assess their trading options "50-60 games within the deadline." Hoyer adds, "You always hold out hope you can string things together and make a run. It’s really hard in this division, I’ll say that. You have three teams playing really well." In a recent poll, MLBTR readers thought the Cubs' Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano were among the players most likely to be traded.

Quick Hits: Angels, Yost, Cardinals, Cubs

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The city of Anaheim and the Angels have begun discussions about renovating Angel Stadium and keeping the Angels in Anaheim, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports. There were, of course, tensions between the two sides when, years ago, Angels owner Arte Moreno changed the name of the team to include Los Angeles, but Anaheim mayor Tom Tait sounds ready to let bygones be bygones. "It makes sense to move along, to put the past in the past and work for the future," he says. The Angels can leave Anaheim after 2016, Shaikin notes, but it sounds like both sides are committed to keeping the Angels where they are. Here are more notes from around the majors.

  • The Angels have done well recently, but the former teams of big-name Angels free agent signings Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols have been even better, CBS.com's Scott Miller notes. The Angels signed Hamilton and C.J. Wilson from the Rangers, but Texas now has the second-best record in the Majors, in part because it used the money it saved on Wilson to get Yu Darvish. The Cardinals, from whom the Angels signed Pujols, currently have the best record in the big leagues.
  • Royals manager Ned Yost is trying to "stay positive and stay supportive," Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports. The Royals' recent struggles — they're now 21-26 and have lost five in a row — have led to questions about Yost's job security. Still, Mellinger writes that Yost will keep his job as long as the clubhouse remains upbeat.
  • Yost spoke with Royals owner David Glass on Sunday, Dick Kaegel of MLB.com writes, noting that it's not particularly unusual for Yost and Glass to meet. "Mr. Glass has frustrations like all of us. He wants to win as much or more than any of us," says Yost. "I'm glad he came down." 
  • When the newly-promoted Michael Blazek makes his big-league debut, he'll become the 9th 25-or-younger pitcher for the Cardinals this year, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com notes. That 25-or-younger crowd includes top prospects Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez, along with flamethrowing reliever Trevor Rosenthal.
  • A number of Cubs players could be headed to other team in July, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Wittenmyer's list of potential departures includes Scott Feldman, Kevin Gregg, David DeJesus, Matt Garza and Carlos Marmol. Feldman, DeJesus, Garza and Marmol all figured in Tim Dierkes' recent poll about which high-profile players will be traded this summer, and so did another Cub, Alfonso Soriano. Wittenmyer notes that Garza could also receive an extension or a qualifying offer if the Cubs don't like what they're offered on the trade market.

NL Notes: Ethier, Mattingly, Wacha, Pagan

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Memorial Day weekend is the time when fans begin to zero in on what's happening in baseball, so Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides his analysis of the 2013 season. Sherman sees Cliff Lee, Matt Garza, Jose Bautista, Alex Rios, and Justin Morneau as the top five trade possibilities. Shin-Soo Choo was Sherman's choice as the best acquisition of 2013 with the combination of Justin Upton and Chris Johnson, Vernon Wells, Nick Swisher, and Mark Melancon rounding out the top five. Sherman also identifies the season's top storylines, prospects, and injuries to date. Let's focus on the news and notes coming from the National League:

  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes the Mets make the most sense of the possible trade suitors for Andre Ethier (subscription required). According to Olney, the Dodgers will only deal Ethier if they decide he can no longer be an effective player for them and are willing to absorb a large portion of the approximately $80MM due the outfielder over the next five years. 
  • Don Mattingly has all the hallmarks of a manager in quicksand and is conjuring up images of Clint Hurdle during his final days as manager of the Rockies, opines Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Hurdle vowed to exercise more authority by creating new rules and benched Troy Tulowitzki for violating one of those rules. Hurdle was fired one week later. Mattingly benched Matt Kemp for today's game calling it a "baseball decision" and not a disciplinary reaction to Kemp expressing his displeasure at being removed in a double-switch the night before, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  
  • The Cardinals are looking to replace yet another starter and top pitching prospect Michael Wacha could get the call, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. Wacha is scheduled to start for Triple-A Memphis tomorrow afternoon, the same day GM John Mozeliak will meet with manager Mike Matheny and the coaching staff to determine who will fill the vacancy in the rotation. Nearly 40% of MLBTR's readers, when asked by Steve Adams this past Wednesday, predicted Wacha will be the next 2012 first-rounder to reach the Majors.
  • Angel Pagan gave the Giants a dramatic victory last night with a walk-off inside-the-park home run. Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets the Mets made two mistakes in their December 2011 trade of Pagan to the Giants for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez: an inclination to non-tender a valuable player and, rather than non-tender, using that money on Torres and Ramirez.

NL Central Links: Garcia, Carpenter, Garza

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Jaime Garcia will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery on Friday, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman goes on to write that Dr. James Andrews was amazed that Garcia was able to pitch anywhere near as well as he did, as the left-hander has a "30-40 percent tear" of the labrum in his left shoulder. Garcia is in the second year of a four-year, $27.5MM contract that he signed in June 2011. His deal contains a pair of club options as well. Here's more on the Cardinals and the NL Central…

  • While Garcia is done for the year, the Cardinals are hopeful that Chris Carpenter can return in July, according to Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Carpenter, who looked all but certain to retire just two months ago, is up to 80 pitches in his intense bullpen sessions. He's yet to face hitters, writes Miller, but there's an outside chance that he could be in the rotation prior to the All-Star break.
  • "Let the debate begin," writes ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers, referring to the split opinion among fans on whether or not the Cubs should sign or trade Matt Garza. It's not immediately clear whether or not the Cubs will try to retain Garza, Rogers adds.
  • One NL scout who was watching Garza's start against the Pirates last night texted Danny Knobler of CBS Sports and said, "I'd take him NOW." Knobler notes that the scout was half-kidding, as Garza hasn't proven his durability yet, but the right-hander carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning against the Buccos last night.

Poll: The Next 2012 First-Rounder To Be Called Up

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The Orioles made headlines last night by announcing the promotion of Kevin Gausman to the Majors. Gausman, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft, reached Double-A as a 22-year-old and posted a 3.11 ERA with a 49-to-5 K/BB ratio in 46 1/3 innings there. With that promotion, Gausman becomes the first member of last year's first round to make it to the Majors. Among 2012 first-rounders, only four other players have even reached the Double-A level to this point.

Mike Zunino, selected by the Mariners at No. 3 overall, has reached Triple-A, but the catcher is hitting just .220/.290/.496 through 33 games in Tacoma. Given the Mariners' need for offense, however, he could be a hot streak away. Promoting him would allow the Mariners to use Jesus Montero at DH, but that only adds to a roster crunch of corner OF/1B/DH types in Seattle.

Right-hander Michael Wacha, the No. 19 overall selection by the Cardinals, has also reached Triple-A. He's posted a 2.05 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 through 52 2/3 innings for the Memphis Redbirds to open the season, and the Cardinals have some injury problems in their rotation with Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook on the shelf. For now, they've gone with John Gast and Tyler Lyons over Wacha.

Marcus Stroman's 50-game suspension for a positive stimulant has finished, and the Blue Jays right-hander made a strong debut at Double-A with five scoreless innings in a start. Many pegged the Duke product to be the quickest first rounder to reach the Majors last year, and Baseball America's Ben Badler wrote Sunday that it "shouldn't take him long" before he's big league ready.

James Ramsey, the Cardinals' other selection (No. 23), is the only other player from the first round to reach Double-A or higher thus far. As an outfielder, he has an uphill battle to reach the Major Leagues given the presence of Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and top prospect Oscar Taveras within the Cardinals organization. He's a huge long shot, but he's advanced further than most college players from the first round already.

Let's open this up to a poll…

Cubs Claim Eduardo Sanchez

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The Cubs claimed reliever Eduardo Sanchez off waivers from the Cardinals, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The Cards moved Sanchez off the 40-man roster to create a spot for Tyler Lyons, who will start tomorrow in place of Jaime Garcia.  The addition will put the Cubs' 40-man roster count at 39, as Michael Bowden was designated for assignment today to open an active roster spot for Matt Garza.  Sanchez will report to Triple-A Iowa for the Cubs.

Sanchez, 24, has a 3.40 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, and 0.60 HR/9 in 45 big league innings spanning 2011-12.  Signed out of Venezuela in '05, the hard-throwing righty spent some time closing for the Cardinals as a rookie in '11, but later landed on the DL for a shoulder strain.  He bounced up and down last year and has missed time this year with a forearm strain, making nine appearances at Triple-A.  Even before his big league debut, Baseball America noted, "durability remains his biggest concern, as his small frame leaves some scouts wondering how his stuff will hold up at the major league level."

NL Central Notes: Hart, Choo, Arroyo, Cardinals

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin indirectly shed some light on the philosophical differences which led to trading Brett Lawrie to the Blue Jays. Lawrie's name came up when Melvin told Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the plan is to keep second base prospect Scooter Gennett in Triple-A for the full season instead of being promoted because of the struggles of Rickie Weeks. "The plan worked for (Prince) Fielder and Corey Hart and all those guys," Melvin said. "Spend your time at each level. That's the part I couldn't get through with Brett Lawrie. He wanted to go past everybody. That model works if you're a freak like Ryan Braun, but he did play at every level. I always say to go out and prove you're too good for the league. If you do that, we'll consider moving you up." Instead Melvin, moved Lawrie out to Toronto. In other news from the the NL Central:

  • Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters, including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, there is no plan to send Corey Hart, recovering from right knee surgery, on a minor league rehab assignment before June 1. This means Hart, who is eligible to be activated from the 60-day disabled list on May 30, will not join the Brewers until mid-June, at the earliest. 
  • The number of years and not money will be the issue for the Reds in trying to re-sign Shin-Soo Choo, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Choo ranks second on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
  • If Choo does re-sign with Cincinnati, a payroll casualty could be Bronson Arroyo. In a second tweet, Fay says the Reds' payroll is a big puzzle and there are lots of factors involved in trying to retain both Choo and Arroyo.
  • Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines merit is not behind the Cardinals' decision to replace the injured Jaime Garcia with fellow left-hander Tyler Lyons, but a desire to delay the service clock of their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha. This is the second time Wacha, owner of an 1.89 ERA in eight Triple-A starts, has been bypassed to fill a rotation opening. Miklasz further believes the Cardinals, owners of the best record in the National League, don't have the best 25 players in their system on the active roster citing top prospect Oscar Taveras toiling away in Triple-A while Shane Robinson and Ty Wigginton are struggling offensively. 
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak disagrees with Miklasz's assessment. "I’m not worried about the clock," Mozeliak was quoted as saying by the Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold (via Sulia). "The media is making a lot of the clock. Other people who read the media are making more of it. To me it’s like that’s not what is making our decisions. It’s managing our decisions for what’s best for the club and what’s best for the individuals in their own silo of development."
  • Chris Carpenter is continuing to make progress in his recovery from nerve trouble in his neck and back soreness and could make a rehab start in early June, Goold reports. "I’m not going to push myself back," Carpenter said (as quoted by Goold on Sulia). "I’m going to make sure that I’m healthy and that I know everything is going to work and that I can go out there and take that grind of the amount of pitches and innings it takes to go the rest of the year." Carpenter threw three simulated innings Saturday, will throw a side session Monday, and throw another four simulated innings Thursday, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch and Chad Thornburg.

Quick Hits: Cardinals, Braves, Starting Pitching Market

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With one-fourth of the season in the books, let's have a look around some injury situations and how they might impact the developing trade market.

  • The Cardinals and Yankees provide an interesting case study as we enter the second quarter of the season. Both have excellent records and lead their division. Both have sizeable payrolls as well as large portions of those payrolls sitting idle on the DL. Both have had to insert players onto their active roster that they did not anticipate. But, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch well explains, the source of those substitute bodies has been drastically different. While the Yankees spent well over $20MM to bring in players like Lyle Overbay, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells — all of whom are 34 or older — the Cards reached into their minor league system. Remarkably, St. Louis has plugged all of its holes with players making league minimum, including young pitchers John Gast, Shelby Miller, and Seth Maness.
  • The Goold piece also includes some valuable insight from GM John Mozeliak. According to Mozeliak, amongst the team's Double-A and Triple-A rosters, "there is almost at any one position, if we needed help at the big leagues, someone we could call on from there." He acknowledges that such cheap, youthful depth cannot always be achieved, and says the team is prepared to pursue other markets as necessary. "I don't want us to go down the path where we feel like we've created this functional model and don't utilize a really robust pro scouting model that makes sure we understand the trade market and understand the free agent market. We can't be scared of those." Yet, by looking internally first, the team has managed to retain salary flexibility to add outside impact down the line. "This organization's way now of staying healthy is not being tied to those outside markets to fill needs," says Mozeliak. "Having some young players step up like they are now gives us additional flexibility when we're going to need it."
  • The Cards' internal depth will once again be put to use with starter Jaime Garcia now staring at a strong possibility of season-ending shoulder surgery, writes Goold. Even with fellow starter Jake Westbrook also stuck on the DL, the team has multiple options among its current relief corps and Triple-A rotation that make a look outside the organization unlikely. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Garcia's replacement(s) can match his strong start to the year. He had thrown 55 1/3 innings of 3.58 ERA baseball to open the season. Veteran starter Chris Carpenter is increasingly shaping up as a viable mid-season option for the club. But any setback in his surprising recovery, or hiccups among the team's young hurlers, could lead St. Louis to consider eventually utilizing some of its salary reserves and young minor league depth in a trade.
  • The Braves are another National League contender dealing with injured arms. As Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com's Matt Snyder writes, Eric O'Flaherty appears likely to join fellow setup man Jonny Venters as a season-ending Tommy John patient. While the team seems likely to utilize internal options to fill in for the present, the loss of its two late-inning lefties leaves the team with just one southpaw in the pen, Luis Avilan. Ultimately, then, Atlanta could be forced to explore the trade market to re-establish its depth as the season wears on.
  • Teams shopping for starters at the trade deadline appear likely to find a limited supply of attractive arms, says ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). Two Cubs pitchers headline the developing market, with Scott Feldman shaping up as the surprise top option at the moment. (Matt Garza, of course, will begin his potential audition on Tuesday.) In addition to several other well-documented trade candidates in Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins and the Astros' Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell, Olney pegs the Padres' Jason Marquis and Edinson Volquez as likely available. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon of the Athletics and Cliff Lee of the Phillies could also be dealt, writes Olney, with the A's having other internal options and the Phils still weighing how to proceed with their excellent (but expensive) 35-year-old co-ace.
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