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Matt Holliday Rumors: Thursday

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12:57pm: Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Scott Boras might consider one or two-year offers for Holliday. However, there are nine-figure offers out there, so, as Miklasz says, a short-term deal seems "highly unlikely." Miklasz hears that Boras won't go for a five-year offer from the Cardinals. The agent seems to be going for a seven or eight-year deal, but the Cards remain confident in their chances of bringing Holliday back.

8:17am: Yesterday we heard that the Cardinals were "working toward an agreement" with Matt Holliday. Talks are picking up and the Cards' offer is apparently considerable. Jon Heyman and Buster Olney suggested that the Cards have offered $100MM or more, Tracy Ringolsby heard that the Cards offered $140MM and Derrick Goold said the sides have even discussed an eight-year deal.

One team that won't be interested at that level: the Orioles. Team president Andy MacPhail told Jeff Zrebiec that there is no validity to Ringolsby's report of a $130MM offer.

Today, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports that Holliday and agent Scott Boras asked for a deal worth $170MM when the Red Sox offered $85MM back in early December. That's Mark Teixeira territory, so the Red Sox moved on.

Matt Holliday Rumors: Wednesday

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10:42pm: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Holliday and the Cardinals are "working toward an agreement" that is "gaining momentum."  Due to this progress, a deal is possible next week.  Goold says multiple contract structures have been discussed – five guaranteed years with a higher salary, and even an "eight-year framework."

7:21pm: Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated reports that Holliday didn't accept a contract offer of at least six years and "presumably" worth more than $100MM offered by St. Louis "in the past couple weeks."  Heyman also tweeted that Holliday "is still talking to multiple teams." 

3:20pm: ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Cardinals' offer to Holliday "is believed to be over $100MM" (guaranteed, he tells me).  Additionally, Ringolsby replied to my email and clarified that he's been told the Cards' eight-year, $140MM offer is guaranteed both in years and dollars.

1:55pm: Talking to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, MacPhail moved quickly to shoot down Ringolsby's report of the Orioles making an eight-year, $130MM offer for Holliday.

1:01pm: Tracy Ringolsby's FOX Sports column today contains information on Matt Holliday's current contract demands as well as a couple of offers that have been made.

Ringolsby says Holliday wants to top the $18MM average salary of a four-year, $72MM deal the Rockies once offered.  But if you look at our post from Monday, you'll see that the Rockies' reported offers are all over the map.

Ringolsby says the Cardinals "made a proposal that could reach $140 million over eight years."  This fits with Joe Strauss' mid-December article for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that said the Cardinals offered "around $15 million-$16 million a season for up to eight years."  In both cases the vague wording makes me wonder whether the offer was eight years guaranteed, or just five years plus options as some have suggested.  I have an email out to Ringolsby for clarification.

Ringolsby adds that the Orioles made an eight-year, $130MM offer to Holliday.  What's more, he says Andy MacPhail "did discuss the possibility of arranging a meeting between himself, Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Holliday in Austin, Texas, where Holliday is living in the offseason."  If true, the Orioles could be more serious about Holliday than previously thought.

Odds & Ends: Mariners, Gomes, Holliday, Bay

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Links for Wednesday…

Matt Holliday Rumors: Tuesday

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8:18pm: In a follow-up story on ESPN.com, Olney reports that the Cardinals are increasingly optimistic that they will be able to sign Holliday.

6:01pm: After the Mets reached an agreement with Jason Bay earlier today, Matt Holliday stands as the only elite hitter remaining on the free agent market. ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets that agent Scott Boras has been doubling back to teams to discuss Holliday, and that his asking price in at least one conversation was $18MM per year.

The Mets' agreement with Bay removes them from the list of possible Holliday suitors, and we've already heard today that neither the Giants or the Yankees are in on the outfielder. Looking around the majors, there are very few teams that have a left field opening and could afford to take on the 29-year-old at anything close to $18MM.

Like Bay with the Mets, it seems that the Cardinals represent the most logical and realistic fit for Holliday. Boras will continue to attempt to get the best possible deal for his client, but at this point it's hard to imagine which club could get involved and outbid the Cards.

Cardinals Eyeing Felipe Lopez

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Mark DeRosa is off the board, and the Cardinals continue to await an answer from Matt Holliday.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch sums up the Cards' other free agent targets in an article this morning.

Goold says the Cardinals are "known to have interest" in free agent infielder Felipe Lopez, who finished the '08 season with a bang in St. Louis.  He was used in a super-utility role in his brief time there.  Lopez had a fine 2009 (.310/.383/.427), but he's received little interest so far this winter.  Last time around Lopez was scooped up by the D'Backs for $3.5MM on December 12th.

Goold also reminds us of two other free agent targets for the Cards: Xavier Nady and Jermaine Dye.  It's unclear whether the Braves still have interest in Nady, while the Rangers are the team most often linked to Dye.

Odds & Ends: Bay, Holliday, Bruney

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Monday night linkage..

  • Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal points out that Boston giving Jason Bay a backloaded contract would do nothing to keep them out of luxury tax territory.  Payroll is calculated by totalling the average yearly earnings of a player, not a player's year-to-year salary.  However, Barbarisi offers up a number of other ways the Red Sox could retain Bay without getting hammered by the luxury tax.
  • Chuck Brownson of The Hardball Times writes that the Cardinals can afford to be patient with Matt Holliday as long as alternatives remain on the open market.  Brownson feels that Mark DeRosa signing with the Giants put a little more pressure on St. Louis.
  • Brian Bruney told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he wants to close for the Nationals in 2010.  Bruney will have to compete with newly acquired Matt Capps for the role.

Matt Holliday’s Best Offer

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Based on published reports, let's try to determine the best offer Matt Holliday has received.

  • Tracy Ringolsby, then of the Rocky Mountain News, reported that Holliday rejected a four-year, $82MM extension from the Rockies in the spring of 2008.  Ringolsby's colleague Dave Krieger talked to Holliday about the offer, and learned that it did not include a no-trade clause.  In another article, Ringolsby put the offer at four years and $72MM, and noted that Holliday would've been able to void the contract if dealt. 
  • Did the Rockies really top out at four years?  Reader Dan B. passed along this video of 9NEWS' Susie Wargin interviewing Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd in November of '08.  About 35 seconds into the video, O'Dowd said the Rockies offered Holliday $107.5MM over seven years during Spring Training of '08.  That comes to a salary of $15.36MM, but it's the only $100MM+ offer Holliday received.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Cardinals' offer to Holliday this winter guaranteed five years, while Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch put the salary at $15-16MM. If both reports are accurate, the Cardinals' best offer could not exceed five years and $80MM.
  • It appears that in terms of total dollars, Holliday's pre-John Lackey offer from the Red Sox was the best.  Boston's five-year offer was initially pegged at $82.5MM, while today John Tomase of the Boston Herald says it was $85MM.
  • It seems that Holliday's best offer in terms of yearly salary was $20.5MM from the Rockies before the '08 season, but the lack of a no-trade clause devalued it.  It appears that the Red Sox outdid the Cardinals by a million or two per year, but Boston's offer is no longer on the table.  Perhaps Scott Boras is holding out for a sixth guaranteed year or $18MM per, but with no obvious competition there's no reason for the Cardinals to raise their offer.  The Orioles' interest waned quickly and the Mets are currently focused on Jason Bay.  In Boras' perfect world Bay would not sign with the Mets, and they'd tangle with the Cards for Holliday. 

Odds & Ends: Dodgers, Beltre, Morrow

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Some Saturday afternoon links..

  • The Dodgers should have offered salary arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudsonto allow themselves the opportunity to receive draft picks, writes Jon Weisman of the Los Angeles Times.  Weisman argues that the worst case scenario of being stuck with one or both players at a slightly inflated price for one season wouldn't have been so bad.  It's hard to dispute this point as we have yet to see the Dodgers do much of anything this winter.
  • Not only are the Athletics talking to free agent Adrian Beltre, they may be the only serious bidder at the moment, according to an item on ESPN's MLB rumor page.  The piece also notes that if Beltre's asking price - believed to be north of $10MM per season – drops into Oakland's price range, the Giants, Cardinals, and Tigers could get in the mix.
  • Seattle's poor decisions stunted the development of Brandon Morrow, writes Ryan Divish of The News Tribune.  While he never had the same ceiling as Tim Lincecum, who was drafted five spots later in the 2006 draft, things could have worked out differently for Morrow if he were given adequate time to develop in the minors. 
  • Shi Davidi of the Associated Presspraises new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos and his plan to rebuild the franchise.  Davidi writes that Anthopoulos has the support of ownership in a way that J.P. Ricciardi never did.
  • A few free agents left on the market might want to consider lowering their asking price, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  Adam LaRoche seeking $30MM over three years might be the most wishful of the bunch.

Olney on Bay, Beltre, Holliday

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney believes the Yankees and Red Sox when they say that they have budget lines that they are not currently willing to cross.  When the trade deadline rolls around, however, it will likely be a different story.  Olney brings us his take on the teams who are still willing to spend this winter…

  • Since Jason Bay continues to sit on their offer, the Mets may soon give up on him and move on to less expensive free agents.  Olney suggests that they ignore fans who are focused on big names and instead spend their money on players who can be had for short-term deals, such as Randy Winn and Orlando Hudson.  The Mets "seem to have" something in the range of $15MM to $22MM in payroll flexibility. 
  • The Mets are shopping for a catcher, left fielder, and starting pitcher.  Joel Pineiro tops their list of desired starters. 
  • Olney characterized the A's consideration of Adrian Beltre as "serious."
  • As the Cardinals continue to wait on Matt Holliday's answer, Olney wonders out loud if the club might look into signing Bay as a backup plan. 
  • Rival executives sense that the M's have some money left to spend, but not a great deal.  Seattle needs either a first baseman or second baseman plus help for the back end of their rotation.
  • Because of the mass of arbitration-eligible players on their roster, the Angels have limited payroll flexibility.  This means that they could pursue Pineiro if they chose to, but are unlikely to factor into the bidding for Bay or Holliday.

Discussion: Pat Burrell

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Pat Burrell's move to the American League did not go as smoothly as he or the Rays hoped.  Burrell left the World Series-winning Phillies to sign a two-year, $16MM free agent contract with Tampa Bay last January, and then suffered through a season's worth of injuries and inconsistency to finish with a career-worst .682 OPS (.221/.315/.367) in 476 plate appearances.

With $9MM due to Burrell in 2010, the Rays have been openly shopping the slugger this winter.  Rumors of a deal of Burrell-for-Milton Bradley swirled for months before the Cubs dealt Bradley to Seattle last week.  With seemingly their best trade option gone, it appears as if Tampa Bay will go into next season with Burrell back in the DH spot — which, if 2009 was just an aberration, might not be a bad option given Burrell's 251 homers and .852 OPS over his first nine years in Philadelphia.

If the Rays still want to move Burrell and save some cash, however, here are a few of the clubs that are in need of a DH/LF type and might have the payroll flexibility to absorb some or all of Burrell's contract.

  • The Mets.  Should they give up on signing Jason Bay (or lose him to the Red Sox), New York would still have a hole to fill in left field.  The downside of Burrell going to a National League team, however, is his glove.  He played just two games in the outfield last season, and according to Fangraphs, his defense ranged from mediocre to terrible (a -25.2 UZR/150 in 2007) over his last four years in Philadelphia.
  • The Cardinals.  Just as Burrell is a backup plan for the Mets if they don't sign Bay, he can also be a backup plan for St. Louis if they don't sign Matt Holliday.
  • The Braves.  Atlanta's biggest offseason need was a right-handed power hitter.  While they are close to a deal with Troy Glaus, Glaus made just 32 plate appearances in 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery last January.  Burrell is perhaps a more reliable option, and may regain his batting stroke back in the NL East.  
  • The White Sox.  Ozzie Guillen likes the idea of a rotating designated hitter, but GM Kenny Williams didn't close the door on the possibility of picking up an everyday DH if the right opportunity presented itself.
  • The Giants.  Mark DeRosa may be coming in as San Francisco's new left fielder, but Burrell could be an interesting alternative should DeRosa not accept the Giants' offer.  Or, the power-starved Giants could acquire Burrell to play in left, and then sign DeRosa to play third base, thus moving Pablo Sandoval over to first.  (Or, Sandoval plays 1B, DeRosa plays 2B and Freddy Sanchez moves over to 3B.)  If the Rays pay some of Burrell's contract, then he is a much cheaper option for San Francisco than Johnny Damon.
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