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Central Notes: Cubs, Molina, Royals

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The Cubs are facing some uncertainty in their rotation early this offseason, as veteran right-handers Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman both have contracts featuring options for the 2024 campaign. The club holds a $16MM team option on Hendricks that features a $1.5MM buyout, while Stroman can opt out of the final year of his contract with Chicago, leaving $21MM on the table to return to the open market. Though option decisions aren’t due until five days after the World Series concludes, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that both Hendricks and Stroman are “expected” to remain with the club in 2024.

Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.

Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.

If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.

More from around MLB’s central divisions:

  • The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff.  Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
  • The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.

Cardinals Have Discussed Coaching Job With Yadier Molina

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The Cardinals and Yadier Molina have had discussions about him joining the major league coaching staff next year, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The report adds that there’s mutual interest from both parties.

Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.

His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.

Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.

There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.

Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake’s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.

It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.

Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.

Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Iván Herrera Eligible For Fourth Option Year

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The Cardinals were expected to have a tough decision to make behind the plate this winter, as catcher Iván Herrera was projected to be out of options in 2024. With backstops Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner also present on the club’s roster, that figured to serve as something of a ticking clock and made Herrera into a speculative trade candidate. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that Herrera is eligible for a fourth option year.

A player has three option seasons and burns one by spending 20 days on optional assignment in a given year, which is when they are on the 40-man roster but sent to the minors and not on the active roster. Herrera was added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster in November of 2020 and has been optioned to the minors in each of the three seasons since, surpassing the 20-day threshold in each year. That is why it was presumed that he would be out of options in 2024 and unable to be sent to the minors without first being put on waivers.

Teams are sometimes granted a fourth option, which is usually due to the player missing extensive time due to injury. However, the specific nature of the fourth option criteria isn’t necessarily related to injury. Per an explanation at MLB.com, a player is eligible for a fourth option if they have exhausted their three options but haven’t yet played five full seasons. A “full” season is defined as 90 days on an active roster, either in the majors or minors.

Herrera’s first two professional seasons saw him mostly play short-season rookie ball in 2017 and 2018, spending less than 90 days active. He was active in the minors for all of 2019 but then the minor leagues were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, and this seems to be the significant factor. Per Goold, 2020 doesn’t count as a “full” season it therefore appears that Herrera only has four of those “full” seasons as a professional: 2019 and then the three most recent campaigns.

At this point, it’s unclear if the Cardinals have petitioned the league for a fourth option on Herrera or if it will be granted, but it seems as though he meets the criteria. If the option is indeed granted, it could change how the club approaches its offseason.

Herrera is one of the club’s better prospects and has little left to prove in the minors. He has hit .282/.416/.450 at the Triple-A level and also performed well in a small sample of major league action this year. But Contreras is a lock for the starting role, given he signed a five-year, $87.5MM contract less than a year ago. Knizner also had a decent year in a backup role, hitting .241/.288/.424 for a wRC+ of 92. He made $1.1MM this year and would be in line for another arbitration raise, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a 2024 salary of $2.2MM.

Since the Cardinals are openly hoping to find three rotation upgrades this offseason, it had been speculated that they might put Herrera on the trading block in order to help them achieve that goal. That may still prove to be the case, but having an extra option at least opens the possibility of them having those discussions with less urgency since they may be able to keep Herrera in Triple-A for another year. Or perhaps it would add the appeal of Herrera to other clubs, since he might not have to be guaranteed an active roster spot.

It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out this winter, with the Cards looking like they could be one of the more active clubs in the months to come. It’s also possible that there are many more players in the same boat as Herrera, since all of the minor leagues were canceled in 2020 and it would appear that hundreds of players also didn’t get credited with a “full” season for it.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

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Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits.  While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available.  Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player.  In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old.  More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types.  Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline.  Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old.  Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon.  While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Azolay, Hoerner, Duarte

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Adam Wainwright’s 200th career win (from seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers on September 18) has been confirmed as the last pitching appearance of the right-hander’s outstanding career, but Wainwright stepped up to the plate one final time in yesterday’s 19-2 Cardinals loss to the Reds.  With the game already out of hand by the sixth inning, Wainwright pinch-hit for DH Luken Baker, and grounded out to second to conclude the 847th plate appearance of his career.

There was a loose plan in place to give Wainwright at least one PA during the final series of his career, though with the Reds still alive in the playoff race, the Cardinals weren’t going to do anything to do impact the integrity of the game just for the sake of a ceremonial at-bat.  However, the lopsided score Friday provided an opportunity for Wainwright to hit for what will likely be the final time, barring another blowout result in the next two games or if the Reds are officially eliminated from contention.  Wainwright has a .194/.221/.293 slash line and 10 homers during his career.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Cubs activated Adbert Alzolay from the 15-day injured list yesterday, as the closer was able to return a little less than three weeks after suffering a right forearm strain.  Alzolay threw a scoreless inning of relief in Friday’s 4-3 extra-innings loss to the Brewers, which dropped Chicago 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the final NL wild card berth.  The Cubs are now 6-14 in their last 20 games, and with several bullpen meltdowns contributing to that poor record, it isn’t a stretch to say that the loss of Alzolay (as well as a few other reliever injuries) might end up costing Chicago a playoff berth.  The injury news got worse for the Cubs yesterday when second baseman Nico Hoerner had to make an early exit due to a bruised knee, after fouling a ball off the inside of his knee during a sixth-inning plate appearances.  X-rays were negative on Hoerner, though it remains to be seen if he’ll be ready to play during a must-win game for the Cubs today.
  • The Reds placed right-hander Daniel Duarte on the 15-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to September 28) due to tightness in his throwing shoulder.  Righty Carson Spiers was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The injury will conclude Duarte’s rookie season with 31 2/3 innings and a 3.69 ERA working out of the Reds’ bullpen, though Duarte was perhaps fortunate to post such a respectable ERA given that his walks (20) almost matched his strikeout total (23).  Duarte made his MLB debut with three games for Cincinnati in 2022 but spent most of the season on the injured list with elbow problems.  He made it back for a full and relatively healthy season in advance of his new shoulder issue, and Duarte’s 31 2/3 frames came in between several options up and down from Triple-A.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals entered the year expected to compete for another NL Central title. Instead, they’re on track for their first 90-loss season in more than three decades. They’re going to make another push for contention this winter, with no secret about a forthcoming pursuit of rotation help.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $108MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $264.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Hudson, Barnes, Knizner, Woodford

Free Agents

It didn’t take long to become clear the Cardinals weren’t going to meet preseason expectations. St. Louis started slowly, rebounded somewhat in May, then fell firmly out of the playoff picture with an 8-15 showing in June. They were positioned as deadline sellers by the All-Star Break.

That’s largely on account of a well below-average run prevention group. The club’s typically excellent defense regressed. Willson Contreras was briefly moved to designated hitter then returned to catcher in a bizarre saga early into the first season of his five-year free agent deal. Most concerning, the starting rotation simply wasn’t good enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

Adam Wainwright had the worst season of his career at age 41. The Cardinals understandably let him continue taking the ball in deference to his place in franchise history. He fortunately managed to hit the 200 win mark with a gem over the Brewers last week to close out his career. Wainwright’s contributions to the last two decades of Cardinal baseball are hard to overstate. He clearly didn’t have much left in the tank this season, though, meaning the Cards shouldn’t have much difficulty finding better production out of one their rotation spots.

They’ll need far more than to replace the outgoing Wainwright. St. Louis dealt impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said shortly thereafter that the club was hoping to fill all three vacated spots from outside the organization. They’d give looks to various younger hurlers to see if any would elevate their standing during the final six weeks. The expectation is nevertheless they’d need to add a trio of starters.

There’s an argument the Cardinals could use four new starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is the one lock for a job. He’s miscast as a staff ace but has proven a very durable source of innings, starting 32+ games in four of the last five full seasons. He’s tallied 194 1/3 frames of 4.82 ERA ball this year. He’s had a rough second half, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back.

The rest of the group is uncertain. Steven Matz has underwhelmed in two seasons since signing a four-year free agent deal. The Cardinals kicked Matz to the bullpen for a spell midseason. He eventually returned to the rotation, turned in his best seven-start run as a Cardinal, then suffered a season-ending lat strain in mid-August. It would’ve been a lot easier to pencil him into next year’s rotation if he’d stayed healthy over the final six weeks.

St. Louis has otherwise cycled through pitchers who haven’t had much success at the MLB level. Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom (acquired from the Orioles in the Flaherty trade) were all well-regarded prospects, to varying extents. Only Thompson has carried that over at the MLB level and that has mostly come in relief.

The Cards have given Thompson nine starts during the final couple months, during which he’s posted a 4.37 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates. The former first-round pick has put the best case forward for a season-opening job out of that trio, yet he’ll be 26 in October and has all of 10 career major league starts. He’s probably not a lock either. Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson have logged some innings without much success. Either could be non-tendered, with Hudson having a particularly tenuous hold on a roster spot heading into his third season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s clearly an insufficient group for a team hoping to return to contention. The Cards have never been huge free agent spenders, preferring to attack the trade market and re-sign the stars they acquire. They’ve yet to go past an $80MM guarantee for a free agent starter (Mike Leake), though they’ve notably been in the free agent bidding for some higher-profile names in the past (most notably, David Price. There’s a chance they set a new franchise record for free agent pitching investment this winter.

The Cardinals have roughly $108MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class will probably tack on a bit over $20MM. That’s still well shy of the $177MM range in which they opened the ’23 campaign. There’s room for a strike towards the upper end of the free agent market.

This winter’s class skews toward pitching. Beyond Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch next season), the rotation group is headlined by Blake Snell and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That duo might wind up beyond the Cards’ spending range, but the next group of arms includes Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Tigers). Montgomery and Nola are very likely to surpass nine figures, while Gray has a chance to do so. Any of that group would immediately be the best pitcher on the St. Louis staff. Rodriguez could beat the Leake guarantee as well.

Mozeliak and his front office will probably add a couple arms in free agency. Handing out the two biggest free agent guarantees for starters in franchise history in the same offseason might not be tenable. Looking further down the class, players like Seth Lugo, old friend Michael Wacha — if his options with the Padres are declined — and Kenta Maeda could offer stability. The Cards may prefer that to a rebound flier on Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, though they’d certainly have the opportunity to dangle a job to a riskier upside play if that’s a route they’d prefer.

Not all of the work has to be accomplished in free agency. The Cards were a team to watch at last summer’s deadline, with rumors of potential deals involving their young hitters to land a controllable starting pitcher. That didn’t materialize. The Cardinals were active, but their trades generally followed the same pattern: moving an impending free agent (Flaherty, Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong) for upper minors talent, preferably pitching.

Speculation about dealing a big league position player could return. Former top prospect Dylan Carlson is the obvious candidate. He’d looked like the franchise center fielder after securing the position midway through the 2022 season. The switch-hitting Carlson hasn’t had the breakout offensive showing that many expected, however, settling in as a roughly league average bat over the past few years. Lars Nootbaar broke out late in ’22 to take hold of center field.

Rather than return Carlson to an everyday role in the corner outfield, they pushed him into more of a fourth outfield capacity. Top prospect Jordan Walker arrived at the major league level to man right field. Walker is already an above-average MLB hitter, though he’s one of the game’s worst defensive outfielders. Tyler O’Neill is a far better defender in left field. He has been up-and-down offensively while battling various injuries, but the Cards have maintained faith that he could recapture his 30-homer potential. They showed little interest in trading him and reportedly plan to give him the left field job to start his final year of club control.

That leaves St. Louis with a few decisions to make. They probably don’t want to consign the 21-year-old Walker to a full-time DH role. There’s no room for Walker on the corner infield, at least for one more season. Depending on how they handle second base, the Cards could need to keep the DH spot available for an infielder. They could retain Carlson as a fourth outfielder, likely passing on a chance to flip him for pitching talent in the process. Richie Palacios, acquired in a minor June trade with the Guardians, has played well enough in September to have a shot at sticking as a fourth outfielder.

Carlson is no longer going to return an impact controllable starter, but there’d still be interest — particularly in a thin market for center fielders. The Yankees expressed interest in Carlson at the deadline and could put Clarke Schmidt on the table, as a speculative possibility. Perhaps the Marlins are prepared to listen on 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers after an injury-wrecked ’23 season. If the Cardinals hold Carlson, they could flip Alec Burleson on the heels of a down year. That’d mean selling low on a former top prospect with five years of remaining club control, though.

The middle infield is the other area where they could leverage their young talent in trade. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are very different players — Donovan is an excellent contact hitter, Gorman has potential 30+ homer power — but they’re each above-average MLB bats. Neither is a great defender at second base, but Gorman has improved at the position and Donovan can bounce around the diamond. Donovan missed most of the second half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery; he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Gorman and Donovan would have more trade value than Carlson. The Cardinals could keep both, rotating them between second base and designated hitter. Yet it’s possible they flip one for a controllable starting pitcher. Speculation about the Cardinals and Mariners lining up on a trade has abounded for months. Seattle certainly isn’t moving George Kirby, and they’d probably balk at dealing Logan Gilbert. They could offer Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, though it’s debatable if that’s enough from the Cardinals’ perspective. The Marlins (Braxton Garrett) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long) could each float interesting young pitchers as part of a larger trade package.

Tommy Edman would generate a fair bit of interest himself. He’s a decent hitter who can seemingly play plus defense at every non-catching position. The Cardinals seem disinclined to move him given his defensive value, though they’ll surely receive some calls. It’s a dreadful free agent class for middle infield help, leaving teams like Detroit, Miami and the Giants without clear solutions at shortstop. Edman would be an upgrade for any of that trio.

That’d be an easier sell for St. Louis if top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn had hit the ground running. The 21-year-old has mustered only a .168/.233/.243 line in his first 33 big league contests. It doesn’t change his long-term outlook, since most players his age are at Double-A or below. Yet it suggests Winn is probably ticketed for Triple-A to start next season, which would leave Edman as the presumptive starting shortstop.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will be back at the corner infield. Goldschmidt is going into the final season of the five-year extension he signed upon landing in St. Louis. If the Cardinals struggle early in the year, he’d be a major deadline trade chip. It’d be very surprising if they seriously entertain moving him during the offseason, however. Perhaps another team wants to take a flier on 26-year-old Luken Baker, who is blocked by Goldschmidt but raked at a .334/.439/.720 clip in Triple-A this season.

23-year-old catcher Iván Herrera also had a great Triple-A showing, hitting .297/.451/.500 with 10 longballs in 375 trips to the plate. It’s his second consecutive above-average performance at the top minor league level. He’ll be out of options next year and surely won’t be placed on waivers. Either the Cardinals keep Herrera in the majors or they trade him, but the signing of Contreras muddies Herrera’s path to a regular role.

The Cards could flip or non-tender Andrew Knizner if they wanted to carry Herrera as Contreras’ backup. Herrera would have quite a bit more appeal than Knizner on the trade market, with teams like Miami (again), Tampa Bay and Boston among possible matches.

Deadline trade speculation extended to the bullpen. There was little incentive to hold impending free agents Hicks and Stratton. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley were loosely floated in rumors. Helsley was on the injured list at the time, while Gallegos had just signed an extension last October. It’s not surprising no deal came together. While opposing clubs could call again on either, the Cardinals would probably prefer to retain two of their better late-game arms. Alongside southpaw JoJo Romero, that duo should assume high-leverage roles.

With Stratton and Hicks gone and long reliever Drew VerHagen hitting free agency, it’s likely St. Louis will add one or two relievers to the mix. That could include their first notable free agent bullpen pickup since they signed Andrew Miller in advance of the 2019 season, even if the rotation is the higher priority.

It looks like a winter with a fair bit of roster turnover. That doesn’t appear to extend to the top non-playing personnel. Oliver Marmol will be back for a third season as manager. Mozeliak — the sport’s second-longest tenured front office head — doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy after a decade and a half of mostly successful ball. Mozeliak implied last offseason that he could hand the reigns to longtime lieutenant Michael Girsch once his contract expires after the 2025 season.

That’s a longer-term consideration. For now, the focus for Mozeliak, Girsch and Marmol is on quickly righting the ship after a disastrous season. The Cardinals aren’t accustomed to looking up at the rest of the division. They’ll try to ensure this offseason that it doesn’t happen again.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 9-29-23. Click here to view the transcript.

NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

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Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media.  Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

Nevertheless, Contreras will hopefully soon be healed up from both his wrist issue and other injuries, as Marmol mentioned that the catcher had also been playing through nagging soreness in his right hand and left wrist.  The health problems didn’t appear to hamper Contreras’ bat (.264/.358/.467 with 20 homers in 495 plate appearances), but they perhaps impacted his defense, as his framing and blocking numbers were both below average and he received a career-low -9 total as per the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

More from around the National League…

  • The Braves’ success is built on a foundation of long-term contracts with core players, and Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores the team’s strategy in getting so many of its younger stars to lock into these deals.  “The sense around the industry is that the Braves put a particular emphasis on exclusively pursuing players whose agents are amenable to extensions,” Keyser writes, which includes some smaller agencies whose own fortunes would be boosted along with their client’s.  Geography is also a factor — Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Sean Murphy are all either from Atlanta or have some family ties to Georgia or the southeastern United States, so they were particularly open to the idea of staying close to home.  There is also the simple fact that a solid long-term core roster makes other players want to join such a roster, as players are naturally more interested in remaining part of “a good environment, a winning culture,” as Olson put it.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is praised for his rapport with the team, and the fact that he tends to first broach the topic of extensions personally with the players is perhaps a reason why so many deals get done (though Scott Boras is one agent who has concerns that such contact can hamper an agent’s ability to get the best possible contract for their client).
  • Several Pirates-related topics were discussed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey in a chat with readers, including the possibility of a reunion between Carlos Santana and the Bucs this winter.  Santana signed a one-year, $6.725MM free agent deal with Pittsburgh last winter, then hit .235/.321/.412 with 12 home runs over 393 PA before being moved to the Brewers at the trade deadline.  Santana has had roughly a league-average bat or worse over the last four seasons and he turns 38 in April, so his market will likely again be limited to fairly inexpensive one-year deals.  This could fit the Pirates’ need for a veteran bat who can play at least part-time at first base/DH, and Santana was a popular mentor figure in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  Mackey opines that the Pirates should devote the bulk of their spending this offseason towards pitching, with Santana perhaps representing a familiar, solid, and less-expensive answer for the Bucs’ first base need.
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