AL West Notes: Beltre, Hamels, Astros’ Draft, Skaggs
In a surprising decision, the Rangers have activated Adrian Beltre from the disabled list and reinserted him into the cleanup spot, the team announced. Beltre has been on the DL since June 2 with a thumb injury, and as recently as last Thursday, he told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that he was not even capable of swinging a bat. It would seem unreasonable to expect that Beltre is 100 percent, and Sullivan even tweeted that he’s in “total shock” to see Beltre come off the DL so soon. Asked by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) about managing expectations for Beltre upon his return, GM Jon Daniels replied by saying, “He’s a freak. Freaky players do freaky things.” Righty Jon Edwards was optioned to Triple-A to clear a roster spot for Beltre, and top prospect Joey Gallo has shifted from third base to left field to accommodate Beltre’s return.
Here’s more from the AL West…
- Earlier this morning, Grant examined some of the obstacles that stand between the Rangers and a potential Hamels trade. For one, he notes, both Chi Chi Gonzalez and Gallo have been so impressive in their big league debuts that they’re likely more untouchable than they were as prospects. (I’ll interject to point out that Gonzalez’s 10-to-12 K/BB ratio is worth at least some concern, though it’s an admittedly small sample.) Beyond that, Hamels’ salary would be difficult to take on without significantly bumping payroll, and candidates with notable salaries that could theoretically be moved to offset the $23.5MM annual sum are currently injured (e.g. Derek Holland, Matt Harrison). Grant also points to the need for a right-handed bat and bullpen reinforcements. The eventual return of Holland, Harrison and Martin Perez may give the Rangers’ rotation the boost it needs, Grant speculates, but there are no such looming upgrades for the ‘pen or lineup.
- Daniels told Mac Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that he expects to be a buyer next month and spoke about the inconsistency he’s had in his bullpen. “Everyone in that bullpen has done it for periods in the big leagues, but we are inconsistent there,” Daniels told Engel. “There are good arms with plus-stuff, and when they are on, they are good. But that is an area we have been inconsistent.”
- The Astros are getting closer to finalizing agreements with No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman and No. 37 overall pick Daz Cameron, reports Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Nothing will be announced in the next day or two, but GM Jeff Luhnow told Drellich he’s hopeful of having a pair of signings to announce during the upcoming homestand, which begins on Thursday. As Drellich notes, Cameron’s signing figures to be the final one, as he will sign well over slot.
- Though the Angels said from the get-go that Tyler Skaggs wouldn’t pitch in 2015 following Tommy John surgery last August, the left-hander tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he thinks he can help the team this year. Skaggs said he’d be happy to pitch out of the bullpen if there’s no room in the rotation, though clearly whether or not he throws for the big league club in 2015 is not his decision to make. Fletcher writes that it might be more likely that Skaggs will pitch in the instructional league, if he pitches at all this year.
Latest On Hamels Talks Between Phillies, Rangers
5:20pm: A team source tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that a trade for Hamels “is not on the board” at time time (Twitter link).
11:39am: The Rangers and Phillies are “having ongoing dialogue” regarding the possibility of a deal that would send lefty Cole Hamels to Texas, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Hamels cannot block a deal to the Rangers pursuant to the current list of teams covered by his limited no-trade clause, Morosi adds in a later tweet.
Texas has received surprisingly solid results from its rotation. And as Morosi notes (Twitter link) the club still expects to receive contributions from rehabbing starters Martin Perez, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland.
While those factors might indicate that the Rangers could sit back and rely on its internal options, there are other indicators favoring a move. The current staff has succeeded in spite of rather uninspiring peripherals. And the injured pitchers still have a ways to go to prove they will be durable and effective.
Per Morosi, the real motivating factor on the Texas side of the equation is the fact that the team “view[s] Hamels as [an] elite upgrade.” Given his contract, the Rangers presumably see Hamels as a current and future asset that could not only give the team a shot this year but pair with Yu Darvish atop the staff for seasons to come. It remains to be seen how much staying power this year’s Rangers club has, but adding Hamels certainly would not be solely a “win-now” move.
As of late April, at least, Philadelphia was reportedly asking for a package headlined by catcher Jorge Alfaro and outfielder Nomar Mazara. Both of those prospects were rated among the Rangers’ top five heading into the year by Baseball America. While they would look to be great fits for a Philly organization that is looking to add premium talent, it remains to be seen whether Texas has any appetite to pay that kind of price. (Note that Alfaro may not be a movable asset this point, as he is dealing with a significant ankle injury.)
Needless to say, the Phillies will hope that several other bidders enter the fray to drive up the return. Things are shaping up rather nicely for GM Ruben Amaro Jr., as many of the clubs that seem like a fit remain in contention and in need of an arm. Meanwhile, the other presumed top arm available, Johnny Cueto, is a pure rental who now faces at least some potential health questions.
Hamels has been as strong as ever this year, racking up 94 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA pitching with 9.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. And the 31-year-old seems ready to move past a seemingly minor hamstring injury to make his next start.
The Hamels contract looks more and more appealing every time you check back: he’s owed the balance of a $22.5MM salary this season, and then has three guaranteed years plus an option for a total guarantee of just $73.5MM. (Hamels’ deal also included a $6MM signing bonus, with an unreported payout schedule, which could still factor into the equation.) Essentially, a team dealing for him now would not only have the benefit of adding a top arm for the rest of this year, but would be making a future commitment that is not much greater than the contract signed last year by James Shields (four years, $75MM). At the start of 2016, Hamels will be a full year younger than was Shields at the start of his deal.
A’s Claim Jake Smolinski From Rangers
The A’s have claimed outfielder Jake Smolinski off waivers from the Rangers, according to Texas PR man John Blake (on Twitter). Smolinski was designated for assignment by Texas on Friday.
Smolinski, 26, had hit just .133/.270/.200 in 74 plate appearances at the big league level this year. But he’s had plenty of success in other recent stints. Smolinski has obliterated Triple-A pitching in 2015, putting up a 1.280 OPS in 50 turns at bat, and slashed a strong .349/.391/.512 over 92 trips to the plate in his first run at the majors last year.
Both of those big state lines were fueled by huge BABIP numbers, however, and Smolinski’s history is more of sturdy reliability than significant pop. He has never finished a full campaign in the upper minors with an OPS over the .800 mark.
So far this afternoon, we have seen Smolinski claimed by Oakland, Royals catcher Erik Kratz claimed by the Red Sox, and Dillon Gee outrighted by the Mets. As the MLBTR DFA Tracker shows, that leaves eight players in DFA limbo: Jhonatan Solano, Phillippe Aumont, Eury De La Rosa, Andy Parrino, Dustin McGowan, Hector Noesi, Jeff Bianchi, and Rickie Weeks.
Rangers Designate Jake Smolinski
The Rangers have designated outfielder Jake Smolinski for assignment, executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. His 40-man and active roster spots were needed for the team to activate Ryan Rua from the 60-day DL.
Smolinski, 26, had hit just .133/.270/.200 in 74 plate appearances at the big league level this year. But he’s had plenty of success in other recent stints. Smolinski has obliterated Triple-A pitching in 2015, putting up a 1.280 OPS in 50 turns at bat, and slashed a strong .349/.391/.512 over 92 trips to the plate in his first run at the majors last year.
Both of those big state lines were fueled by huge BABIP numbers, however, and Smolinski’s history is more of sturdy reliability than significant pop. He has never finished a full campaign in the upper minors with an OPS over the .800 mark.
Trade Notes: Taylor, Cueto, Cards, Indians, Rangers, White Sox
The Nationals and Athletics have matched up on trade deadline rentals (and other deals) with some frequency of late, and the clubs have reportedly discussed both Ben Zobrist and Tyler Clippard this year. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports, nothing has gained significant traction as of yet. Oakland has expressed interest in young Nats outfielder Michael Taylor, who has found himself playing a significant role on the club this year as a fill-in for Denard Span (to start the year) and Jayson Werth (currently on the DL). The A’s have also asked about the Nats’ young arms, per Rosenthal, who argues that the Taylor ask suggests that Oakland GM Billy Beane could be looking to “operate as both a buyer and seller” this summer. From my perspective, looking to add an unpolished but big-league-ready and controllable piece like Taylor is to be expected, whether or not Beane thinks his club has enough time to get back in contention this season. I’d also add that the Nats seem unlikely to move Taylor with Span set to hit free agency after the season.
Here are some more notes on the trade market:
- The Yankees are getting a good look at Reds starter Johnny Cueto, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. New York has sent a scout to watch both of Cueto’s last two starts, per the report. Of course, they surely are not alone in dedicating attention to the player who could be the best arm available this July.
- Though he doesn’t call for a trade directly, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch breaks down the flaws in the Cardinals bench alignment. In particular, utility infielder Pete Kozma has struggled badly at the plate for some time. And the team’s resources have been stretched somewhat with Mark Reynolds needed to fill in for the injured Matt Adams. Certainly, as the team looks to fortify itself for a stretch run and hopeful post-season berth, reserve players could be on the wish list.
- The Indians remain in a somewhat uncertain position in a tough AL Central; entering today’s action, the team remains four games under .500 and eight back in the division. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio (Twitter link), Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti certainly sounded more like a buyer. “We’re still learning about our team,” he said. “We’re still trying to find out where we’ll need to supplement.”
- In his own recent MLB Network Radio spot several days ago (via Twitter), Rangers GM Jon Daniels explained that he is preparing to take a hard look at the trade market. “If someone out there can help us, we have to be open-minded,” said Daniels. “We’ll evaluate our own guys first and go from there.” As both of these executive quotes indicate, one somewhat underappreciated factor in the slow onset of serious trades is the fact that many clubs are interested in obtaining an extended look at multiple internal options — all while seeing how other teams’ players are performing — before deciding whether to part with assets.
- The White Sox are in an even tougher spot than their division rivals from Cleveland, but GM Rick Hahn emphasized that the team is still focused on crawling back into contention, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. “The organization still absolutely believes in this team,” Hahn said. “The focus on the ballgames and the belief we will win ballgames is there.” Of course, as Levine rightly notes, the best way to get back in the hunt — improved performance — is also the optimal means of building trade value. Hahn went on to explain that he had no interest in giving public insight into the team’s strategic thinking. “Do we have thoughts on potential moves to reinvigorate the 2015 club and put us in a better position to contend going forward? Absolutely,” said Hahn. “As for the timing or the nature of those moves, that is not something that we will lay out in advance.”
- ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark lays out his top ten targets, rating Cole Hamels of the Phillies as the biggest trade piece. One executive tells Stark that Hamels has probably increased his value over the first few months of the season, though of course he is out right now with what is hoped to be a relatively minor hamstring issue. Teams that have had contact with the Phils are indicating that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is still insisting on young players that possible buyers have said they’re not willing to move. One source tells Stark that a “more creative” approach will be needed to get something done. Amaro has obviously taken a lot of heat for his handling of the team’s trade chips, though at this point it is probably best to withhold judgment; after all, Hamels is a somewhat unique trade commodity given his large but manageable contract, and a bidding war remains a plausible scenario.
International Notes: Market, Martinez, Venezuela
The international market continues to be a fairly inefficient arena despite advances in overall talent evaluation resources, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. An advancing timeline for reaching verbal agreement with July 2 prospects has exacerbated the difficulties of scouting young, swiftly changing players, says Badler. Generally, uncertainty and market manipulation are prevalent, creating an environment in which bonuses do not always match talent.
Here’s more from the international scene:
- The Yankees “made a run” at signing MLB.com’s top-rated international prospect, Eddy Julio Martinez, before the close of the 2014-15 July 2 period, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. A deal did not get done, however, meaning that Martinez will sign elsewhere at some point after July 2 (when the new year’s market open). New York is now just starting out on a two-year ban on international bonuses of over $300K.
- Broader difficulties are even greater in Venezuela, writes Badler, citing one scout who says “this is as bad as it’s been” to evaluate young players there. But the same large-scale economic issues that have crippled the country and had a trickle-down effect on the baseball industry have also created shifting incentives for ballplaying youngsters. Badler explains that, even as less resources and money have reached Venezuela, there is an increasing trend of teenagers devoting more time to baseball development in hopes of earning a chance at a contract, thereby sacrificing time that might have gone toward other pursuits. That has led to a bump in the overall talent level coming up, though of course it is probably not a positive indicator for the country’s young people.
- Badler also provides a preview of the best prospects coming up on the July 2 market out of Venezuela. The Rockies are “strong favorites” to sign outfielder Daniel Montano, who is expected to receive the largest bonus from the country (perhaps over $2MM). And the Rangers appear to have the inside track on another well-regarded outfielder, Miguel Aparicio, at a lower price tag.
- There’s plenty more to learn from the Badler pieces cited above, and you’ll want to give them a full read for all of the details.
Rangers Sign Eric Jenkins, Michael Matuella
The Rangers have signed second-round pick Eric Jenkins and third-rounder Michael Matuella. Both receive $2MM bonuses, per Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter links).
The second and third overall choices of the Rangers came with $1,360,100 and $777,600 slot values. Combined, the two signings require the team to make up for $1,862,300 in pool money. In addition to the $826,500 saved on first-round selection Dillon Tate, the club has reportedly saved on several other signings (links to Twitter reports): Blake Bass (eighth round, $166,300 savings), Peter Fairbanks (ninth round, $64,700 savings), and Leon Byrd (tenth round, $123,700 savings). That leaves $804,800 left to reach par, though the team can exceed its total allotment by up to 5% without losing a future draft pick.
Jenkins, a high school center fielder, drew broad consensus heading into the draft, with Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, MLB.com, and Baseball America all pegging him as between #40 and #43 in terms of pre-draft prospect value. His speed is his best attribute, though he also shows promise with the bat (albeit not much in terms of power projection). ESPN.com’s Keith Law is less bullish, rating Jenkins 78th and questioning whether he’ll be able to adapt to higher-level competition.
Of course, Matuella entered the draft as one of the most interesting names to watch. Regarded by some as a possible top five pick heading into the year, Tommy John surgery cut his season short and made him a questionable signing candidate with another season of college eligibility left. Matuella already faced questions about his back heading into the draft, and his stock dropped accordingly. But he remains an intriguing talent, with Law rating him the 19th-best available player and noting that he has top-of-the-rotation upside if he can get healthy.
Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest & Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Tribune first reported that the deals were nearing finalization (Twitter links).
Jorge Alfaro Could Miss Rest Of Year
Top Rangers catching prospect Jorge Alfaro has suffered an ankle injury that could keep him out for the rest of the season, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Alfaro is currently wearing a walking boot, and the Rangers are considering surgery as an option.
MLB.com currently ranks Alfaro the Rangers’ second-best prospect (behind Joey Gallo) and the 38th best prospect in baseball. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Alfaro the No. 35 prospect in baseball heading into the season, while Baseball America ranked Alfaro No. 67. Alfaro, who turned 22 yesterday, has hit .253/.314/.432 for Double-A Frisco this year. He has outstanding tools, including terrific power and a huge arm, although Law notes that he has at times struggled to control them. Alfaro might therefore need the minor league development time he’ll lose as a result of the injury more than many prospects of his caliber would.
Early in the season, Alfaro’s name came up as a possibility in trade rumors involving Cole Hamels, as the Phillies reportedly coveted Alfaro. Other reports at the time, however, indicated that the Rangers preferred not to trade him.
Rangers Sign Dillon Tate
The Rangers have officially announced the signing of fourth overall pick Dillon Tate, along with the signings of righty Jake Lemoine (fourth round), shortstop Dylan Moore (seventh), righty Blake Bass (eighth), righty Peter Fairbanks (ninth), shortstop Leon Byrd (tenth), and centerfielder Ledarious Clark (12th). All have been assigned to short-season Spokane except Lemoine, who will head to the Arizona Summer League.
Tate will receive a bonus of $4.2MM, as Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest tweets. The pool value of the pick was $5,026,500, so Tate’s signing will save the Rangers over $800K that they can use on later picks, perhaps including third-round pick Michael Matuella, who could command a bonus above his recommended $777,600 allotment. Lemoine, meanwhile, will receive $528K, which is the exact bonus allotment for his pick.
Tate, a 21-year-old junior righty from UC-Santa Barbara, earns high marks for his fastball (which can reach up to 98 MPH) and high-80s slider. MLB.com notes that his curveball isn’t as strong and that his delivery involves a bit of effort, but that Tate seems to have answered questions about whether he’s capable of starting. If in fact he doesn’t work out in that role, his arsenal would seem well suited to bullpen work — Tate excelled as a closer in college before transitioning to the rotation.
Baseball America (subscription-only), meanwhile, ranked Tate the No. 3 prospect in the draft, behind only Brendan Rodgers and Dansby Swanson. BA noted that, as a result of switching from relieving to starting, Tate greatly increased his innings total this year. That might mean the Rangers could be cautious with him as he enters his first pro season. Tate has pitched 103 1/3 innings so far in 2015, with a 2.26 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
Trade Market Notes: Top Targets, Papelbon, Jays, Mets, Cueto
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com ranks the top forty trade candidates around the league, adding observations and notes on each. Though he notes that clubs like the Red Sox and Orioles could potentially end up moving assets, Heyman restricts things to clubs that seem more likely than not to sell at this point. Cole Hamels of the Phillies lands in the pole position; though some top suitors remain unwilling to part with the top players targeted by Philadelphia, one GM tells Heyman that the club will probably be able to land a premium prospect for the lefty. He also argues that a deal involving Dodgers outfielder and Angels starter C.J. Wilson looks good on paper, though the teams have not discussed such an arrangement. You’ll need to read the whole post to take it all in, of course.
- The Blue Jays and Phillies have not discussed Jonathan Papelbon in the last week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links), adding that Toronto is looking at other arms at the moment. One name to watch, says Sherman, is Tyler Clippard of the Athletics, who Toronto had in-depth discussions about over the winter.
- It’s academic at this point, but Clippard also drew significant interest from the Astros over the offseason, Sherman further tweets. Indeed, Houston was “very close” to acquiring the veteran reliever, says Sherman, which raises the interesting question of what the Nationals would have received in return. Ultimately, the club took infielder Yunel Escobar in return, though that deal did not occur until a month after the Astros had already spent big on free agent bullpen arms, which could indicate that the prospective Clippard acquisition might have been contemplated earlier in the winter.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson indicated that the club will not rely on a return from David Wright in making its summer moves, David Lennon of Newsday writes. Alderson said the club would not continue providing regular updates on Wright’s status, and said he would not be restricted in making moves. “Would we consider a third baseman who can’t do anything else?” Alderson queried. “Under the circumstances, yeah, we probably would. But we’re not just looking for any third baseman. It has to be something we think is an improvement that doesn’t cost us significantly.” The veteran GM continued to throw cold water on the idea of a move in the near-term, noting that the market was “narrow” and generally features underperforming players at this stage.
- C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer discusses the Reds‘ current predicament, with Zack Cozart out for the season, Devin Mesoraco likely to join him in that regard, and Marlon Byrd sidelined for a significant stretch. Cincinnati should not allow its hosting of the All-Star game to slow its efforts to deal Johnny Cueto, opines Rosecrans, who suggests that the team could reap a larger reward by moving him now (both by selling more starts and, perhaps, by getting ahead of the market). Dealing Cueto, of course, would also increase the appeal of shipping out Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Rosecrans concludes: “At this point, the organization doesn’t need to think about the All-Star Game, or even 2016. This is a long-term move and needs long-term thinking.”
- Though he’s a rental, Cueto is a true ace and should bring back a healthy return — even if it won’t be near what the Reds might have achieved last year (as Rosecrans explains). There should be no shortage of suitors, but MLB.com’s Phil Rogers lists the five most plausible landing spots: the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres.