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Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Cubs Still Showing Patience Despite Lack Of Offseason Change

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  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Cubs To Sign Carlos Asuaje

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The Cubs have reached a minor-league deal with utilityman Carlos Asuaje, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). Further details aren’t yet known.

Asuaje, 28, has seen action in parts of three MLB campaigns but has failed to capitalize on the opportunities. He’s just a .240/.312/.329 hitter with six long balls through 586 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Last year, the former Red Sox and Padres prospect tried his hand at Korea’s top league. But he was cut loose after a disappointing 49-game run, over which he walked more than he struck out but produced very little power. Asuaje returned to take 186 plate appearances at Triple-A with the Diamondbacks organization, turning in a .239/.339/.403 slash that was good only for an 81 wRC+ in the offensively charged PCL.

It’s not exactly the notable move that Cubs fans have been waiting for, but Sharma suggests that Asuaje could be given a shot at cracking the MLB roster in camp. He’s primarily a second baseman but has seen time professionally at third base, left field, and (least of all) shortstop.

Cubs Asking Price Sky High For Bryant

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  • The Cubs have lingered in the shadows throughout the winter, and though a Kris Bryant trade has been clearly telegraphed, the star third baseman remains in Chicago due to asking price, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago. Speaking to people around the game, Kaplan found real skepticism that Bryant remains the foundational superstar he was in 2016. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs from asking for the moon, with the same being true of their asking price for Willson Contreras. Theo Epstein and the Cubs are in a tough place after seeing their championship window slam closed last season, and it’s understandable for the braintrust in Chicago to hold out hope for a franchise-altering return for one of their homegrown stars. But if the return they seek never materializes, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of alternative plan they can cook up to keep these Cubs viable.

Talks Between Nationals, Cubs On Kris Bryant Have ‘Gone Nowhere’

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Recent talks between the Cubs and Nationals regarding Kris Bryant have “gone nowhere,” reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Negotiations seemed to hit an impasse a few weeks ago, when the Cubs reportedly insisted upon the inclusion of promising center fielder Víctor Robles in any Bryant deal.

Notably, Washington has agreed to terms with Asdrúbal Cabrera on a one-year deal since Rosenthal’s report. Perhaps that takes them out of the running for Bryant or Nolan Arenado, two of the top trade candidates on the market, regardless. Cabrera, though, wouldn’t figure to stand in the way of an acquisition of a player as good as Bryant or Arenado. Indeed, Washington still doesn’t seem to be entirely ruling out a signing of star free agent Josh Donaldson. There’s yet opportunity to circle back to more eye-catching names than Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who the Nationals brought aboard yesterday.

Understandably, the Cubs seem to be setting a high price in talks on Bryant. Interested suitors, meanwhile, are wary of Bryant’s service time grievance. At the moment, the 28-year-old has two years of team control remaining. His $18.5MM projected salary is notable but still an unquestionable bargain for a player of his caliber. If Bryant wins the grievance, however (an outcome that would be unexpected but hardly impossible), he’d reach free agency at the end of next season instead. In that case, he would still be a highly appealing trade chip, but his value would no doubt take a hit. Thus, Bryant seems likely to stay put until the grievance is resolved.

Either way, it doesn’t appear Bryant will be headed to the nation’s capital, barring an unforeseen reignition of talks. Teams who lose out on Donaldson and Arenado would figure to be Bryant’s most ardent pursuers. The Braves, Rangers, and Twins have been among the most active searchers for upgrades at the hot corner. Of course, there’s no urgent need for the Cubs to trade Bryant, who, despite the pending grievance, might still be amenable to working out a long-term deal.

Kris Bryant Interested In Being Career-Long Cub

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A service-time grievance and trade rumors have been dominant topics this offseason centering on Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But Bryant, who will turn 28 on Saturday, would still prefer to spend his entire career with the Cubs, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score hears. That depends in part on whether the club would be willing to give the third baseman “fair value” in an extension, though. To this point, there hasn’t been any word about serious extension talks between the two sides. As of now, after his grievance hearing in October, the main question is whether Bryant has one or two years of team control left. The decision figures to have a significant impact on his future.

Poll: Will Cubs End Up Trading A Star?

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When the Cubs came up short of the postseason this year, it broke a string of four consecutive appearances. It also prompted the organization to prepare for some major changes. To this point, we’ve heard lots of chatter featuring the team’s biggest stars as trade candidates. But no real change … yet.

It’s a bit of a curious situation. By all indications, the Cubs have reached the internal decision to get under the luxury tax line. There are clear financial incentives for teams to do so, at least every few seasons, to duck the biggest monetary penalties under the current CBA. But … now? After assembling this long-awaited core? And after signing Craig Kimbrel six months ago, in the middle of the season?

We’ve been led to believe that the Cubs baseball operations department feels it must explore deals involving its best players because it simply doesn’t have authorization to spend otherwise. And the status quo isn’t optimal for 2020 or beyond. That situation is rather difficult to square strategically with the Kimbrel signing, which occupied all of the team’s remaining flexibility. But perhaps ownership decided on this course more recently. The team is facing major Wrigley renovation cost overruns, albeit possibly of their own making.

Whatever the background, the situation remains: if the Cubs wish to change their roster, so far as we can discern, it’ll have to come via trade. The Cubs could try to shave some salary associated with the ill-fated Jason Heyward, Tyler Chatwood, and Daniel Descalso deals, though that doesn’t figure to be easy and would cost prospect capital to pull off. With a farm system already picked over for prior additions, any major overhaul will almost certainly require the departure of quite a significant player.

Javier Baez seems more like an extension target than a trade candidate, but we’ve heard loads of talk about Kris Bryant (at least, once his grievance is resolved). Willson Contreras was in the news quite a bit earlier in the winter. Yu Darvish doesn’t seem inclined to waive his no-trade rights, but could Jose Quintana be discussed? Or even Kyle Hendricks? Kyle Schwarber would no doubt be made available in some scenarios. And the team evidently isn’t seeing eye to eye with first baseman Anthony Rizzo; might there be a chance he’s moved?

At this point, we don’t really have great reason to think any particular player is likely to be sent out. Bryant and Contreras certainly occupy in-demand positions, but there hasn’t been a strong rumor indicating that a swap is approaching. We haven’t even heard specific rumors on all of the players listed above, but can the Cubs really take anyone off the table at this point?

There’s still loads of uncertainty, so it’s a good time to ask for everyone’s best guesses. So … will they make a deal? (Poll link for app users.)

And which player is likeliest to be moved? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Biomechanics Breakdown With Cubs Director Of Hitting Justin Stone

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  • Veteran reliever Steve Cishek, a Cape Cod native, “would like” to sign with the Red Sox, hears Peter Gammons of the Athletic (Twitter link). Cishek is among the top relief arms remaining in a generally weak free agent class for late-game options. The 33-year-old submariner compiled a dazzling 2.55 ERA in 134.1 innings over the last two years with the Cubs. However, his age and a pedestrian combination of strikeouts (24.3%) and walks (10.3%) over that time figure to tamp down his market. The MLBTR staff forecast a modest two-year, $10MM deal for Cishek at the start of the offseason. However, it’s not clear Boston would even be willing to dole out that kind of money, Gammons notes, in light of the Sox’s failure to match the Blue Jays’ one-year, $4MM offer to reel in Travis Shaw, a player whom Boston liked. Cishek’s market has seemingly been quiet to this point, with only the Twins known to have checked in a few weeks back.
  • The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma explored the facility of new Cubs’ director of hitting Justin Stone. A biomechanics expert, Stone broke down a generic hitter’s swing and bat path, perhaps offering a sneak-peek into the work he’ll do with Chicago’s batters next season. The subscription-only piece is worth a read for those interested in how biomechanics is being used to help hitters optimize their individual swings.

The Market For Shogo Akiyama

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Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.

Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding

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DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.

5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).

DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.

Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.

Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.

Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).

Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.

While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.

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