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And The Offseason Begins

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The Cardinals have been crowned the unlikely world champs, so now it’s time for all baseball fans to offically focus on 2007.  Here’s a roundup of the latest rumors.

With the Tigers’ season over, the consensus among local papers seems to be that they will trade some of their excess starting pitching for a slugger, possibly a first baseman.  Some folks think Jeremy Bonderman’s postseason performance (3.10 ERA in 20 innings) was a sign that he will take it to the next level in ’07.  Others think it’s time to trade him with his value so high.  Possible trade targets:  Mark Teixeira, Todd Helton, Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, and Pat Burrell.  It’s certainly feasible that Brandon Inge, Nate Robertson, or Craig Monroe could be included in a trade.

We’ll know by November 11th whether Aramis Ramirez will become a free agent.  Right now, he’s not close to a deal with the Cubs.  While Ramirez’s current deal is often cited as two years and $22.5MM, the third year is pretty easily guaranteed at $11MM.  He just needs to play 270 games over the first two seasons.  We hear a lot about the Dodgers and Angels as Ramirez’s suitors.  The Dodgers would force top prospect Andy LaRoche to move from third base if they sign Ramirez.  Other teams that could have interest: the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Giants, and Padres. 

The Sheffield Saga continues, with the Astros and Indians entering the mix.  A one-year rental from the Tribe would be a great fit in my mind.

Cubs To Target Hiroki Kuroda, Gary Sheffield?

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Some interesting rumors coming from Cubdom, ideas that surprisingly don’t seem too foolish.  At least compared to last year, when the budget was spent on middle relievers, Jacque Jones, Glendon Rusch, and Neifi Perez.

The first one comes from the Chicago Tribune.  Paul Sullivan indicates that the Cubs may turn their focus to Japanese hurler Hiroki Kuroda instead of Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Not that Matsuzaka isn’t the better pitcher; he certainly is.  But Kuroda won’t require a posting fee, and he posted the best ERA (1.85) in Japan’s Central League.  Kuroda also posted a 6.9 K/BB ratio, which is awesome.  If Hendry can snag Kuroda for an under-the-radar two-year, $15MM deal it wouldn’t be a bad move.  Of course, it’s not a guarantee that Kuroda wants to pitch in the United States as of right now.

Second, Joel Sherman names the Cubs as a strong possibility for Gary Sheffield.  We’ve all read Sheff’s comments, about putting up a huge stink if the Yanks pick up his option and then trade him.  But as Sherman says, Sheffield has always been like this.  He’s still got a lot of reasons to play and play hard in 2007.  It’d be a low-risk acquisition with .900 OPS potential.  Maybe an Angel Guzman type does the trick?  Maybe a little more, but it won’t be requiring Rich Hill like some other sluggers would.  From the Cubs’ point of view, where would Sheffield play?  Left and right field seem locked in with Matt Murton and Jacque Jones. 

What Leads You Here

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Today, someone arrived at MLBTradeRumors.com by asking, "Is Alex Rodriguez on the Cubs?" 

I hate to disappoint, my friend, but he is not.  But there’s no such thing as a stupid question.

In another news, I should have my 2007 Top 50 Free Agents list done around the end of the month.  I like to put it out kind of early.  It includes my rankings as well as predicted destinations.  Let’s hope I can do a little better than last year.

The Sad Progression of Aramis Ramirez

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It’s been interesting to watch the Aramis Ramirez Situation develop.  Here’s what I’ve seen.

Phase 1: Ramirez signs four year, $42MM contract with an option for ’09.  On the surface, it looks like security for both parties.  In reality, it’s more of a two year deal.  Jim Hendry built in the chance for Ramirez to void the contract after 2006 if Ramirez thinks he can get more than the non-guaranteed three years/$33.5MM remaining. Media makes light of the out clause and Ramirez indicates that there’s little chance he’d leave Chicago.  Realistic fans realize that the contract gives the Cubs zero leverage.

Phase 2: In the first year of the contract, Ramirez plays just 123 games because of a quad injury.  He’s quite productive in that time, but no one is publicly worried about the out clause.

Phase 3: In the middle of the 2006 season, the idea of the out clause surfaces again.  Chicago media strangely contends that there’s little chance Ramirez walks away from three years, $33.5MM, non-guaranteed over his age 29-31 seasons with a weak free agent class at his position and tons of teams with money to burn looking for 3Bs.  Ramirez continues to spout the party line about staying in Chicago.

Phase 4: Idea of re-negotiation surfaces, Ramirez starts deferring to his agent when asked about possible free agency.  Media starts planting the seed that Ramirez is lazy and Scott Moore could be a Major League 3B in 2007.  Despite the very serious chance of Ramirez departing and leaving the Cubs with nothing, Hendry does not trade him at the deadline.

Phase 5: Exercising out clause becomes a lock, but Hendry speaks of hammering out a deal with Ramirez within a few weeks of season’s end. 

Phase 6: Though Hendry knew he’d need a manager all along, he contends that the manager search is the reason Ramirez doesn’t have a deal done after a few weeks. 

Phase 7: A-Rod balloon is floated, giving Cubs fans false hope that the team could sustain the loss of Ramirez.  Ramirez’s agent defends the player not running out ground balls and mentions that he might be the "hottest free agent."

Phase 8 (predicted): Agent starts saying that while Ramirez hopes to remain a Cub, his client has earned the right to test the free agent market.

Phase 9 (predicted): Ramirez signs with Angels or Dodgers.  Chicago Tribune starts trying to make Scott Moore seem like a capable replacement.  Cubs fans, having been duped last year that Ronny Cedeno was a suitable alternative to Rafael Furcal, don’t buy it. I hope.

Phase 10 (predicted): Cubs spend a lot of money suboptimally and/or trade Rich Hill/Donald Veal/Sean Gallagher and play .500 ball at best in 2007.

Cubs To Enter Matsuzaka Bidding

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Being a Cubs fan is all about hope.  Jim Hendry’s assertion yesterday that the team will enter the bidding for Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka should keep the positive vibes going around the team.

It’s important to note, though, that every team has some level of interest in Matsuzaka and nearly every team will place a bid.  There’s no danger in bidding too low – only upside.  Still, the thought of Matsuzaka behind Carlos Zambrano makes Cubs fans salivate.  Suddenly the Cubs would have the makings of a rotation – Rich Hill in the third slot, a mid-level free agent as #4, and Mark Prior et al. filling out the fifth spot.  I’m letting my imagination run wild though – a more likely scenario is that Matsuzaka is a million bucks beyond the team’s budget so Hendry signs Gil Meche to a four-year deal with an out clause in case he pitches well.

With or without Matsuzaka, that #4 starter could come from Japan.  Jim Hendry mentioned "two or three pitchers over there we feel can start here," one of which could be Kei Igawa.

The Cubs join the Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, Mariners, and Padres as the ten most interested clubs.  Who else thinks the winning bid tops $30MM?

2007 MLB Free Agents: Gary Matthews Jr.

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The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market.  It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007.  Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better. 

While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven.  He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season.  The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department.  He’s also got a career high SLG.  The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed.  It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007. 

Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets.  He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis. 

Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing.  The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense.  Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense.  Sure, he’ll decline from his career season.  But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees.  Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there? 

Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews.  This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.

Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested.  I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years.  He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.   

2007 Chicago Cubs

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Updated 12/07/2006

Full disclosure: I am a diehard Cubs fan.  Still, I think I’m capable of pulling together a Team Outlook for this bunch.

Jim Hendry’s 2007 contract obligatons:

C – Michael Barrett – $3MM
C – Henry Blanco – $1.8MM
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Mark DeRosa – $4.33MM
SS – Cesar Izturis – $4.15MM
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $11MM
IF – Ryan Theriot – $0.38MM
LF – Matt Murton – $0.38MM
CF – Jacque Jones – $4MM
RF – Alfonso Soriano – $9MM
OF – Angel Pagan – $0.38MM

SP – Carlos Zambrano – $6.5MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $10MM
SP – Rich Hill – $0.38MM
SP –
SP – Wade Miller – $1.5MM
SP – Mark Prior – $3.65MM
SP – Sean Marshall – $0.38MM

RP – Ryan Dempster – $5MM
RP – Bob Howry – $4MM
RP – Scott Eyre – $3.5MM
RP – Will Ohman – $0.61MM
RP – Mike Wuertz – $0.38MM
RP – Kerry Wood – $1.75MM
RP – Roberto Novoa – $0.38MM
RP – Neal Cotts – $0.4MM

Buyouts:

RP – Kerry Wood – $3MM

Injured players:

RP – Glendon Rusch – $3.25MM

The Cubs have about $96MM locked up before raises, unless perhaps insurance covers Rusch’s salary.  Also keep in mind that Miller can earn an additional $3.75MM in incentives and some of Soriano’s bonus may need to be paid out in ’07.  Zambrano should get decent money in arbitration, so a rough estimate is $102MM committed.  There have been rumors of the team taking payroll all the way to $120MM to field a winner in 2007.  That’d mean a lot of patchwork via free agency. Hey, it worked for the Marlins in ’97.  Wow, that team had some crappy seasons by hitters now that I look at it. 

Mark DeRosa will handle second base now, so the infield’s set. 

In the outfield, Hendry really just needs a center fielder.  Kenny Lofton is the only real viable option in free agency.  Otherwise Jones or Soriano will have to learn the position.  There’s also been talk of adding Cliff Floyd as a platoon partner for Murton; I don’t see the point. 

The rotation could probably use one more arm behind the front three of Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill.  Someone to bridge the gap between Hill and the fifth starter DL combo of Prior and Miller.  Gil Meche remains on the radar.  In-house longshot starting candidates include Dempster and Cotts.  The trade bait seems to be Jones, who apparently wants out of Chicago. 

A few of the pitchers I’ve listed will be squeezed out and sent to the minors or traded.  The Cubs have three lefties in the pen currently.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez

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When we last checked in with future free agent left fielder Luis Gonzalez, he’d been informed by the D’Backs that they didn’t want him back. 

Now, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a few interested teams for us:

"Don’t feel bad about Luis Gonzalez’s Diamondbacks career being over. The Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, and Cubs are already considering him as a DH and/or left fielder for next year."

Word was that Gonzo wanted to stay in the NL, meaning a return to the Cubs might be at the top of the list.  The problem?  The Cubs already have a left fielder, and he’s having a fine age 24 season.

Matt Murton:  .294/.359/.438
Luis Gonzalez:  .274/.356/.453

Given that Murton is improving and Gonzalez is on the decline, and that Gonzalez will make significantly more money, the signing wouldn’t make much sense. 

If the Cubs really are interested, that should mean one of two things. 

1. They plan on using Murton in center field and letting Juan Pierre go (unlikely but not the worst idea in the world if Murton could somehow pull it off on defense).

2. They are considering trading Murton (possible).

If the Cubs want to make a major trade, say involving Miguel Tejada, Murton could be a coveted player. 

Carroll: Aramis Ramirez To Stay A Cub?

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll gave hope to Cubs fans everywhere in his chat today.  When posed a question about Aramis Ramirez leaving the Cubs as a free agent, he responded:

"I don’t think Ramirez will leave. In fact, I think the deal’s essentially done to keep him."

I thought that one line was definitely noteworthy, as Carroll is known to have some solid Cubs sources.  Last month, the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan indicated that Ramirez would stay, while SI’s Jon Heyman thought differently.

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