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2007 MLB Free Agents: Juan Pierre

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There’s been some talk in the Chicago papers that the Cubs may offer Juan Pierre three years and $24MM this offseason.  Let’s take a closer look at the 29 year-old speedster.

The Cubs acquired Pierre to play center field on December 7th of last year.  Before then, the Cubs flirted with Milton Bradley, Brad Wilkerson, Austin Kearns, and Dave Roberts.  Definitely a mixed bag there knowing what we know now.  I was not a fan of the Pierre acquisition, though the price didn’t seem terribly high to me.  In hindsight, Cubs fans wouldn’t mind having Ricky Nolasco back.

Pierre had an awful start to his Cubs career, hitting just .240/.276/.309 over the season’s first two months.  Something clicked in June, however, as he’s hit .316/.363/.433 since.  Still, Pierre is miscast as a leadoff hitter and perhaps even as a regular.

The point of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, right?  Pierre ranks a woeful 24th in OBP among leadoff hitters with 300 plate appearances this season.  Clunky guys like Kevin Youkilis and Jason Kendall are running circles around Pierre’s OBP.  Speaking of running, that’s often the defense for letting a guy like Pierre lead off.  But when you’re getting nailed on 27% of your steal attempts, you’re not adding much value there.

It’s also well-known that Pierre doesn’t make up for his offensive shortcomings with his center field defense.  His arm is awful and his range is unimpressive.  In short, Pierre would make a decent fourth outfielder.  To pay him anywhere near $8MM annually is a mistake only the Cubs could make.  Baseball Prospectus indicates that he should be paid about half that.   

Cubs fans can only hope another, dumber team swoops in with an offer Pierre can’t refuse.  Matt Murton would be a better option atop the Cubs’ order.  Solid free agent outfielders include David Dellucci, Kenny Lofton, and Dave Roberts.

Twins Trade For Phil Nevin

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Given that the Twins rank second from the bottom of the AL in home runs, they acquired a DH type with some pop: Phil Nevin.

Nevin’s had his ups and downs this year between the Rangers and Cubs, but he is slugging .456 in 355 ABs.  Twins’ DHs have been a void this season so Nevin can only help.  Minnesota currently trails the White Sox by a half game for the AL wild card. 

Nevin’s $10MM salary ranks second on his new club, though the Cubs are footing some of the bill in hopes of receiving a decent prospect.

Heyman: Aramis Ramirez May Become A Free Agent

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It seems that SI’s Jon Heyman has a different take than the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan on the Aramis Ramirez situation.  As you recall, Sullivan mentioned ten days ago that the Cubs believe Ramirez won’t exercise his out clause and become a free agent this winter.  It seemed curious, as Ramirez could easily top three years and $33.5MM for his age 29-31 seasons on the open market.

Yesterday afternoon, Heyman commented:

"Aramis Ramirez is telling friends that he plans to exercise an option to opt out of his contract with the Cubs.  Ramirez…is also telling people he’d love to go to New York.  The Astros, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers could be among favored players for Ramirez. But, of course, the Cubs won’t let him leave easily."

So what’s it going to be, Aramis?  Honor your current deal (a hometown discount), take more money on the open market, or renegotiate with the Cubs? 

Tribune: Cubs Believe Ramirez Will Stay

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According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune:

"While the Cubs still believe Aramis Ramirez won’t exercise his opt-out clause after this season and leave $22 million on the table to become a free agent, they do have a third baseman in the system with a bright future. West Tenn’s Scott Moore, a 22-year-old prospect who was a first-round draft pick of Detroit in 2002, is tied for second in the Southern League with 20 home runs and ranks third with 68 RBIs. Moore, who was acquired with Roberto Novoa from Detroit in the Kyle Farnsworth trade, is at least a year away from the majors."

Ramirez’s contract, signed in April of last year, calls for $11MM in 2007 and $11.5MM in 2008.  The deal also has an $11MM mutual option for ’09 that becomes guaranteed with 270 games played from 2007-08.  How likely is this?  Here’s a look at Ramirez’s games played.

Age 23: 158 games
Age 24: 142 games
Age 25: 159 games
Age 26: 145 games
Age 27: 123 games
Age 28: 158 games (projected)

2005, Ramirez dealt with groin problems, lower back tightness, a sprained ankle, a bruised shin, and a quad injury.  The quad injury is what really caused the missed time, and it looks like an exception rather than the norm.  So I think it’s safe to say Ramirez is looking at a three-year, $33.5MM deal for his age 29-31 seasons.

One has to wonder whether the Tribune is quietly laying the groundwork for the Scott Moore era in Chicago.  Paul Sullivan hasn’t been a company man, though, so there are probably no hidden motives.  Cubs fans can rest easy for the moment; it appears Ramirez will remain a Cub.

The offseason won’t be without temptation, however.  Ramirez’s toughest competition at the hot corner: Aubrey Huff and Nomar Garciaparra.  He’s younger, he’s better, and he’s healthier than that pair.  The most comparable contract might be Troy Glaus at four guaranteed years, $45MM for 2005-08.  Glaus was entering his age 28 season, though he’d played just 149 games from 2003-04.  Ramirez, on the other hand, just posted his third consecutive 30 HR campaign.  There’s no doubt he could get four guaranteed years (as opposed to the current two) and at least $13MM annually. 

Either Ramirez A)doesn’t exercise his out clause and honors his deal (which is a hometown discount), B)tests the free agent market and finds several superior offers, or C)renegotiates his current deal.  Jim Hendry hopes for A; C seems a lot more likely.      

Minor Trades and Rumors

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The Cubs unloaded Neifi Perez on the Tigers today, and it was no surprise Neifi got through waivers.  What team would want to be on the hook for $2.5MM for him next year?  Ditching Neifi at this point at least partially rights the wrong of signing him to an extension in the first place for Jim Hendry.  The Cubs’ "everything man" will be making outs atop of Detroit’s lineup now.  Even more impressive is that Hendry snagged a 22 year-old catching prospect, Chris Robinson, in the deal.

The Mets added righty reliever Guillermo Mota today.  Along with Oliver Perez, this is another project with plenty of upside.  Mota was one of the game’s top setup men a few years ago.

Tom Glavine’s got a possible blood clot, which could mean season or career-ending surgery. At least his life is not in danger.  The news first appeared on an ESPN message board from a man said to be Glavine’s brother-in-law.  Back when Glavine appeared healthy, the same source indicated that the southpaw would finish his career with the Braves, at any salary.

Reggie Sanders may have cleared waivers.  Who wants a 38 year-old right fielder with a .248/.304/.424 line?  Don’t forget the $5MM he’s owed next year.   

From Yankees announcer Jim Kaat: the Rangers may be talking to the Orioles about Mark Teixeira.  Tex is from Maryland, for what it’s worth.

Plenty of buzz going around in various forms of media that the Red Sox may acquire reliever LaTroy Hawkins.  We’ll know soon enough.  The 33 year-old has, at least, kept the ball in the yard and exhibited good control with the Orioles this year.

Chicago Tribune Takes Izturis Propaganda Too Far

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As you probably know, the Tribune Company owns both a Chicago newspaper and the Cubs.  Sometimes, this conflict of interest gets out of hand.  A perfect example would be today’s analysis of the Cubs’ acquisition of Cesar Izturis.  Let’s break down the work of the three guilty sportswriters (their writing in bold).

Phil Rogers: In Izturis, the Cubs have landed themselves an excellent all-around player.

Shouldn’t an all-around player not be among the worst hitters in baseball?

He won a Gold Glove in 2004 and began ’05 as one of baseball’s best hitters, collecting 75 hits through May—the first Dodger to do that in the era of divisional play.

This is the first of several times the sportswriters mention Izturis’s good two months among the 2364 at-bats of his career as a sign that he can hit.  How selective is that stat?  How about the rest of 2005, when Izturis hit .173/.218/.222?

Mike Downey: A year ago or so, Izturis looked like the best shortstop in the National League, period.

This is misleading, since the NL didn’t have much shortstop depth in 2005.  Still, what about Felipe Lopez, Rafael Furcal, and Jimmy Rollins?

Dave van Dyck: But all of them predict he will be a perfect No. 2 hitter behind Juan Pierre.

What makes a good No. 2 hitter?  Probably the ability to get on base in front of the big guys, right?  Izturis has a truly awful career OBP of .295.  That’s worse than Neifi Perez, for those scoring at home.  This guy is a professional outmaker.  But hey, at least he makes good contact.  Just like Neifi and Placido Polanco.  Truth is, the words "on-base percentage" are never uttered in today’s Tribune in reference to Izturis.  In fact, they left it out of his career stats.

Somebody needs to start a petition or something to get the Cubs to acknowledge on-base percentage.  This is no longer some stat-nerd movement.  This is a fairly obvious problem that even the casual fan understands.  The Cubs’ team OBP of .319 is by far the worst in the league.  The Cubs could actually field a lineup soon featuring Izturis (.302), Ronny Cedeno (.280), Jacque Jones (.315), Juan Pierre (.323), and Phil Nevin (.309).  That has to be some sort of record.  Maybe Neifi can get in the lineup at third base.  Somebody get Jeff Francoeur and Angel Berroa on the phone – history is being made!

CubDumb said it best:

"What the Sox and their fans can really enjoy is the greatest baseball con ever executed in this city:

THEY MADE THE CUBS BELIEVE THAT CRUSTY-OLD-SCHOOL-GRINDER-LIL’-BALL IS WHAT WINS YOU A WORLD SERIES.

What they saw was a justification to keep running the organization the way they always had: Collecting and developing speed, for instance. And ignoring, or quite possibly holding in contempt, the ability to get walked."

As a lifelong Cubs fan, I can honestly say that I hate this team. 

ESPN: Dodgers Want Maddux

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A report from ESPN’s Amy Nelson indicates that the Dodgers are the "hottest team on Greg Maddux."  According to Nelson:

"The deal would be two L.A. prospects for Maddux; one would be a position player, the other a pitcher. And both would be high-level, likely coming from their loaded Triple-A team in Las Vegas."

Well, let’s have a look at Las Vegas’s roster.  I could see Delwyn Young as a part of this, and maybe Hong-Chih Kuo as the pitcher.  Southpaw starter Greg Miller would be an impressive bounty.  Anything above that – Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman, or Matt Kemp – seems highly unlikely to me.  Nelson mentions that the quality of the prospects involved increases the more the Cubs pay Maddux’s salary.  About $3.2MM remains; the Cubs should really just eat all of it and get one top-notch prospect. 

Probably meaningless tidbit: Guzman sat out tonight’s wild affair against Iowa.

Maddux Leaves With Tip Of Cap

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Many are speculating that Greg Maddux’s excellent performance today against the Cardinals was his last as a Cub.  He got the win and departed to a standard ovation, tipping his cap to the Chicago faithful.

In other Cubs rumors, Will Carroll mentions today in his latest Will’s Mill update that "the Cubs have received some indications that Aramis Ramirez is going to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, putting them in the same situation that the Brewers were in before moving Carlos Lee."

Though many Cubs fans may not want to admit it, there’s a very solid chance Ramirez tests the market.  Does he love Chicago so much as to forego extra years and millions of security?  Doubtful.  Since when have the Cubs ever gotten a hometown discount, anyway?  Sammy Sosa and Kerry Wood seemed to get a hometown surcharge in their massive deals.  I suppose there was Andre Dawson, but that’s about it.  This is Jim Hendry’s best shot to secure two young position players (and one had better be an outfielder).

Another tasty nugget from Carroll on the Reds:

"They have one offer out on a player that would really signal a new era in Cincy, though it’s unlikely to happen."

My own speculation?  The offer is for Miguel Tejada.  We know that they’ve kicked the tires.  By the way, are you getting sick of the phrase "kicked the tires" yet?

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