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Rosenthal’s Latest: Sale, Archer, Jays, Halos, McCann, Catchers

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Talk about White Sox ace Chris Sale figures to be persistent this winter whether he gets moved or not, and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal has the latest installment in his newest notes column. Rosenthal echoes yesterday’s report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the Nationals are interested in Sale and adds more context to the matter. Per Rosenthal, the Nats would shut talks down if the Sox were insistent on Trea Turner’s inclusion in the deal, but they have numerous other high-end prospects — the Nats are prospect-rich with names like Victor Robles, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, among others — that could entice Chicago. While the Nats have more glaring needs (catcher, center field), they’ve expressed interest in both Sale and Chris Archer of the Rays (and other Tampa Bay starters) with an eye toward further deepening their rotation to maximize their postseason chances. Rosenthal reminds that the Nats appeared to have a stacked rotation even when they signed Max Scherzer, and the NL East is continually improving, putting more pressure on GM Mike Rizzo and his staff.

A few highlights from the column, which I’d recommend checking out in its entirety…

  • The Blue Jays are still seeking a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and Rosenthal lists Josh Reddick and Dexter Fowler as possibilities, though Fowler would need to be willing to move to a corner to accommodate Kevin Pillar’s borderline superhuman glove. They’re also in the market for a right-handed platoon partner for Justin Smoak at first base, with Steve Pearce standing out as a possible target. The need for a platoon partner is somewhat counterintuitive since Smoak is a switch-hitter, however Smoak hit just .209/.284/.337 as a right-handed hitter last year and has hit lefties at a woeful .223/.279/.378 clip over the past three seasons.
  • Rosenthal lists the Angels’ Tyler Skaggs and Matt Shoemaker as potential under-the-radar trade candidates, speculating that the team could potentially move someone such as Skaggs (as part of a trade package) if it meant landing a premium second baseman like Minnesota’s Brian Dozier. That appears to be a speculative link at this juncture, but Dozier’s name will be a popular one this winter given the Twins’ last place finish and obvious need for pitching. The 29-year-old slugged 42 home runs for Minnesota in 2016 and is under club control for a total of $15MM through the 2018 season.
  • The Yankees and Astros are “at an impasse” in trade talks over Brian McCann, though Houston can certainly turn elsewhere in its hunt for catching help and general offensive improvements. The ’Stros were in on Kendrys Morales before he agreed to a his deal with Toronto, per Rosenthal.
  • Free agent catchers could come off the board quickly, with Jason Castro and defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis among those drawing strong early interest. Rosenthal points out that last year, Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, Brayan Pena and Geovany Soto all signed prior to Dec. 1. Castro’s market in particular appears to be fast-moving, as he’s already reported to be weighing offers from three American League clubs and could receive a fourth from Minnesota this week.

Trade Chatter: Sale, Astros, Votto, Watson, Marlins

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Though the Braves already added R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon this winter, it seems they aren’t quite done shopping for starters. They have joined the division-rival Nationals, and probably a sizable portion of the rest of baseball, in reaching out to the White Sox about lefty Chris Sale, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Atlanta is among the organizations “trying hardest” to pry Sale loose from Chicago, per the report, with some around the league believing that he could change hands this winter. Of course, yesterday’s report regarding the Nats also suggested that the South Siders have yet to engage in serious chatter as of yet, and the Braves are looking at a variety of options, so it’s a bit soon to dwell heavily on the Sale/Braves connection. Atlanta has also inquired with the Rays on Chris Archer and the Athletics on Sonny Gray, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman notes.

A few more notes on some trade situations from around the league…

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters today, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, that he still hopes to have one or two transactions completed before the Winter Meetings (video link). Luhnow said as much when leaving the GM Meetings last week, but the Houston GM offered indications today that the club has narrowed its focus. “I think instead of working on 12 things right now, we’re working on four, which gives us a little bit more focus,” said Luhnow. “…We’re in a position where we did all of our homework ahead of time, we know what resources we have, we know what needs we need to fill, and we can be a little bit more aggressive this year than we have in years past.” Asked about his potential areas of focus, Luhnow spoke generally about needing “some pitching help” and “a bat or two,” though he did say that his team is willing to act as quickly as a trade partner or agent will allow.
  • Reds GM Dick Williams continues to downplay any notion that Joey Votto could be traded, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Speaking at last week’s GM Meetings, Williams said that he “certainly [hasn’t] had any discussions with [Votto]” about waiving his no-trade clause, per Sheldon. Williams said that the constant speculation is understandable for a player of Votto’s caliber but believes the first baseman will be at the center of the team’s lineup throughout the rebuild and beyond. As we’ve pointed out here at MLBTR many times, Votto also has a full no-trade clause and has gone on record as saying he has no desire to leave Cincinnati. Sheldon offers another quote from Votto, from 2015: “I just absolutely love playing here. I really like where I live. … I like the location of the ballpark and the fans and the clubhouse and the uniform and the number on my back — all the littlest things that people take for granted are very comfortable to me and something I look forward to. I don’t think of myself as anything other than a Cincinnati Red. It’s one of the really cool things about having a no-trade clause.”
  • The Mariners may not feel comfortable spending enough to compete with the Blue Jays for the services of free-agent lefty Brett Cecil, which could lead them to the trade market, writes Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Per Dutton, Pirates left-hander Tony Watson is one name to monitor as Seattle looks for a late-inning lefty, noting that Watson is “believed to be available.” The 31-year-old stepped into Pittsburgh’s closer role last year following the trade of Mark Melancon and performed well, as he’s done in virtually every role he’s been used over the past several seasons. Dating back to 2012. Watson boasts a 2.40 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 345 1/3 innings. He’s lefties to a downright pitiful .190/.253/.273 slash but also more than held his own against righties, yielding a collective .214/.280/.346 batting line in that time. Watson has one more year of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in his final trip through the arbitration process.
  • Though the Marlins are exploring the trade market for rotation help, they’re not willing to part with either Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. There have also been no indications that they’d consider moving Giancarlo Stanton, Frisaro continues, although with a full no-trade clause and the largest contract in history, that could potentially be a moot point anyhow. Marcell Ozuna and Adeiny Hechavarria are the most oft-mentioned names the Fish could look to move, though Hechavarria’s anemic bat offsets a great deal of his defensive talent.

East Notes: Holland, Encarnacion, Sale, Reddick, Bruce

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The Red Sox are one of the most aggressive pursuers of free agent reliever Greg Holland, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. But there are multiple other organizations that have keen interest in the veteran hurler, who is looking to return following Tommy John surgery. Boston, of course, wouldn’t be able to offer Holland much of a path toward a closing job; presumably, he’d be expected to serve in a set-up capacity in front of Craig Kimbrel. Whether or not other organizations would hand Holland the ninth — or, perhaps, at least provide a chance for him to get there at some point — isn’t known, and it’s also not clear to what extent that really matters in his decisionmaking process.

  • There are numerous opportunities for the Red Sox to consider this winter — with free agent Edwin Encarnacion, perhaps, being the most intriguing. Bradford reports that the organization has yet to engage Encarnacion’s camp in earnest, however, and certainly the public signals given by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggest that he’s not a top target. That could be posturing, or a nod to the still-uncertain CBA talks, but Bradford argues that Boston ought to be in on Encarnacion.
  • The Nationals have spoken to the White Sox about ace lefty Chris Sale, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But Chicago has not undertaken serious talks with any clubs about Sale to this point, he adds. While it’s certainly reasonable to think that the Nats would be interested in knowing what it might take to add the talented southpaw, it seems at this point there’s no reason to view the chatter as more than due diligence.
  • The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are looking for a lefty outfield bat and are exploring options in both trade and free agency, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Josh Reddick is one possible target, per the report, and Toronto has also chatted with the Mets about Jay Bruce — who, perhaps, would be shopped if New York were to add a certain, significant free agent.

Jose Abreu Opts Into Arbitration

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White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has opted out of the remaining three years and $34MM on his guaranteed contract and will enter arbitration for his remaining three years of club control, reports Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Abreu originally signed a six-year, $68MM contract with the ChiSox, but that contract allowed him to enter the arbitration process whenever he was deemed eligible. With three years of big league service time now under his belt, this offseason marks the earliest juncture at which he’d have been able to do so.

Abreu earned $10MM this past season under the guaranteed phase of his six-year deal and would’ve earned $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019 had he not opted out. However, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explored, the arbitration process figures to be more lucrative for the Cuban-born slugger. Arbitration raises are based on previous salaries, but Abreu’s $10MM 2016 salary isn’t technically the figure from which he’ll receive a raise, as with contracts such as the one on which Abreu currently plays, the signing bonus must be annualized and factored in as well. Abreu’s deal contained a $10MM signing bonus, so adding one sixth of that sum ($1.66MM) to last year’s salary gives him an arbitration base of toughly $11.66MM. (Abreu’s agents could try to argue that the bonus should be pro-rated over three years, as he’s opting out of three guaranteed years, but it’s unclear if they’d be successful in that endeavor; at the very least $11.66MM is the floor on which his raise will be determined.)

As Tim also noted in that exploration of Abreu’s unique contract situation, though, Abreu also can’t be given a standard raise on top of that base. Abreu’s numbers to date compare favorably to Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, but Stanton earned $6.5MM in his first trip through arbitration. Abreu is already north of that and wouldn’t be boosted an additional $6.5MM on top of his current salary, but he also isn’t in line for a cut to that mark either. More realistically, he’ll gain some form of token raise atop his “on-paper” salary of $11.66MM, which prompted Tim to project a $12MM salary for him in the event of opting into arbitration. (For further explanation on the fine details of Abreu’s case, I’d recommend checking out Tim’s piece in its entirety, as it does a fine job highlighting the complexities associated with this type of Major League contract.)

Abreu, 30 in January, hit .293/.353/.468 this season and swatted 25 homers. His offense has taken a step back in each of his seasons since his brilliant Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014, but he remains a considerably above average bat and should do well from this point forth in arbitration, as whatever price the Sox and Abreu’s camp determine this winter will be the baseline for his second trip through arbitration. Of course, it’s also not entirely certain that Abreu will even remain with the White Sox long term. While GM Rick Hahn hasn’t outright said that he’s planning to orchestrate a fire sale, the South Siders do seem more apt than ever to listen to trade pitches on their top veteran players, and Abreu certainly fits that bill. Hahn spoke earlier this winter of “focusing on longer-term benefits,” and interested parties could subsequently make the Sox strong offers for stars such as Abreu, Chris Sale and/or Jose Quintana. Conversely, the Sox could simply be opportunistic in listening to offers on shorter-term commodities like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, though certainly neither veteran comes with the type of value that Chicago’s more controllable assets carry.

Trade Chatter: Miggy, McCann, Greinke, Third Basemen, M’s, D-Rob

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With some buzz arising yesterday about the Astros possibly pursuing Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow suggested that it was more smoke than fire, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. While he wouldn’t comment specifically, and acknowledged that the team discusses “lots of different scenarios” with its rivals, Luhnow largely doused the rumor. “I was asked, ’Would we consider a trade for a Hall of Fame-caliber first baseman,’ and we’re considering everything,” said Luhnow. “I think the media kind of ran with that.”

  • We’ve also heard plenty of discussion of the Yankees possibly dealing catcher Brian McCann, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post has the latest. The Astros, Braves, and Nationals are “believed interested,” says Sherman, though we’ve yet to hear truly clear reporting connecting any single team to the backstop this winter. That’s due in part to the fact that McCann enjoys full no-trade protection. McCann’s agent, B.B. Abbott, did acknowledge that his client might be amenable to a return to Atlanta, where he makes his home, and will otherwise consider opportunities — with factors including location, competitiveness, and playing time — on a case-by-case basis. “He would look hypothetically at [the Braves] very seriously if [Yankees GM Brian Cashman] is able to do it,” said Abbott. “If it is a team a little closer to home that has a chance to contend that fits X, Y and Z, Mac will look at it and determine if it is a fit.” Abbott emphasized that McCann doesn’t have any kind of list of pre-approved teams, preferring instead to allow the organization to present any possible trade to him if it arises, and is hardly demanding that he be sent elsewhere.
  • Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says that he “fully anticipates” that righty Zack Greinke will pitch in Arizona next year, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter. That’s not terribly surprising, and is hardly a committing comment, but it certainly suggests that the new D-Backs front office won’t be seeking to shed as much of Greinke’s contract as it can this winter. While the organization would surely need to entertain any serious offers for the veteran, the smarter course at this point may be to allow him to rebuild some value before seeking to unload the huge future commitment.
  • The third base market could potentially see a bit of action via trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says that the Padres are getting bites on Yangervis Solarte and the White Sox are listening on Todd Frazier. Of course, there isn’t an enormous amount of demand around the game, and Justin Turner remains available as a high-quality free agent, though it’s certainly possible to imagine organizations like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, and Brewers pursuing additions at the hot corner. The biggest conceivable trade piece, of course, would be Evan Longoria of the Rays, and Rosenthal says that Tampa Bay will indeed be open to considering offers. But it still remains quite difficult to see a deal coming together on him.
  • The Mariners aren’t ruling out pursuit of a shortstop, though they feel comfortable with what they have, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters including MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Ketel Marte remains the incumbent regular, and Dipoto also cited Shawn O’Malley and Mike Freeman as internal depth pieces. On the one hand, said the GM, any more would be “more significant than finding somebody who can augment our situation at Triple-A.” On the other, it wouldn’t necessarily be a blockbuster. “If we do something at shortstop, it’s going to be more of a veteran guidance type of player,” said Dipoto. “Maybe the shortstop version of a Carlos Ruiz, but the market is not brimming with that type of player.” Free agent possibilities could in theory include Erick Aybar and Alexei Ramirez, but it seems they don’t hold much appeal for Seattle. Alternatively, the M’s could certainly also re-join their summer efforts to acquire Zack Cozart, or pursue a somewhat lesser-regarded veteran such as Danny Espinosa, though we’ve heard no specific suggestions as yet.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed the status of reliever David Robertson, who some view as a possible trade piece this winter, as Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reports. He’s owed $25MM over the next two years and wasn’t quite himself in 2016, but robust demand for closers could make him a rather significant target. Offseason meniscus surgery isn’t expected to limit Robertson in camp, says Hahn. And the veteran reliever will also have a chance to fully recover from glut issues that Hahn says may have contributed to his struggles last year.

Hahn: White Sox “Focusing On Longer-Term Benefits”

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The White Sox enter the winter with plenty of questions — not just of how to address immediate roster needs, but also of how to approach the offseason strategically. GM Rick Hahn suggested to reporters today that the club intends to oversee some changes in its roster-building mentality this winter, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports.

With an impressive, controllable, affordable core, but also numerous needs, the White Sox could pursue a variety of avenues. The most drastic would be a full-blown tear-down in which the team’s best player assets — the contracts of stars such as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton — are marketed to the highest bidder.

Hahn certainly didn’t commit to that kind of course. But he did indicate that the broad imperative is now different, which could conceivably lead to rather dramatic change. Hoping to “put ourselves in a position to in on a sustainable basis,” Hahn explained, required the team to “focus[] on longer-term benefits over the offseason.

What does seem clear is that the White Sox will not continue to pursue shorter-term, expensive veterans to build around their core. “We have taken the approach for a number of years that we were focused on a short-term success,” Hahn said, specifying that the team was no longer interested in continuing that course because it “realize[s] a better position for the long-term is a more prudent path.”

Hahn didn’t prime fans for a massive rebuilding effort, though. He suggested that the club still has hopes of winning next year, but that the offseason “targets will have a little bit longer fits in nature.” But there does still appear to be a real possibility of some deals involving the team’s veterans. Hahn explained:

“Should we go to the position of selling off assets, looking toward a more long-term future, the market will dictate how deep of a cut that is. That would also be based on the return for some of our players. The market plays a huge role. … The other part is how your players are valued by the industry. We would not be just trading a younger piece for a younger piece. We would want to diversify the use of players, depending on the depth and strength of the roster. You may look at five or six spots to improve on.”

Clearly, there’s still a lot of uncertainty even with the GM Meetings underway. But it sounds as if the White Sox are open to any number of scenarios involving veterans. In addition to the key players noted above, the organization possesses a wide variety of short-term assets (e.g., Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, David Robertson) who’d surely hold appeal to contenders. And if the organization isn’t looking to add those types of players, it’s fair to wonder whether they’ll want to retain them.

White Sox Claim Giovanni Soto

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The White Sox claimed lefty Giovanni Soto off waivers from the Athletics, Oakland has announced. The A’s had only just added Soto when he became available from the Cubs during the World Series.

Soto, 25, has minimal big league experience. But he has shown the ability to generate some whiffs in the upper minors, and obviously has enough stuff to draw the attention of multiple major league organizations.

Though he has increasingly struggled to keep the ball in the zone, Soto has typically been tough to hit and score runs against. But the 2016 season wasn’t his best, as he allowed 5.7 walks per nine en route to a 5.14 ERA in 49 frames. On the positive side, he did strike out just over ten batters per nine and record a 56.6% groundball rate on the year while holding opposing lefties to a .254/.351/.343 batting line.

AL Central Notes: Holland, Twins, White Sox, Hahn, Tigers

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Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins will have representatives at Greg Holland’s showcase tomorrow, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link).  The Giants, Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox will also have scouts on hand at Holland’s showcase, while the Royals are also known to have interest in a reunion with their former closer and will probably also have personnel on hand.  Holland missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he is already drawing a lot of attention from both contenders and rebuilding clubs like Minnesota as an intriguing bounce-back candidate.
  • The Twins are expected to heavily expand the baseball operations department under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes.  Minnesota had just 15 people working in baseball ops last year, as per the team’s press guide, while other teams had almost twice as many personnel working in a wide variety of roles.  As you might expect given Falvey and Levine’s background with modern statistical analysis, the Twins’ analytics department is expected to receive particular attention.
  • “White Sox GM Rick Hahn is open for business on just about his entire roster,” more than one general manager tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his recent Offseason Outlook piece about the Sox, the looming question over Chicago’s winter plans is whether the team intends to rebuild or try to contend in 2017, and Cafardo’s news would seem to hint at the former.
  • With the Tigers looking to curb their free-spending ways, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the possibility of the team dealing Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in a single blockbuster trade.  This would allow the Tigers to reload on both payroll space and prospects for a quick return to contention by as soon as 2018.  Assuming Verlander is willing to waive his no-trade protection, he’d get a lot of attention from other teams even with his big price tag ($84MM through 2019 and a $22MM vesting option for 2020) since starting pitching is so scarce this winter.  As for Cabrera, who is coming off another tremendous season and is owed $220MM through 2023, Edwards writes that “the length of his contract means his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. Indeed, as soon as next season, he might be untradeable.”  It’s a short list, of course, of teams that could afford to absorb Verlander and Cabrera’s deals even if Detroit kicked in some money; Edwards suggests that the Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers or Yankees could be fits.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a fourth straight losing season, the White Sox have not revealed their organizational strategy.  Do they finally commit to a roster tear-down?  Or will the team spend another winter attempting to add the right veteran pieces to complement its talented core?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • James Shields, SP: $44MM through 2018.  Shields can opt out after 2016 World Series.  If Shields does not opt out, White Sox are responsible for $20MM for 2017-18.  Contract includes $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout; White Sox would be responsible for buyout.
  • Melky Cabrera, LF: $15MM through 2017.
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $34MM through 2019.  Can opt into arbitration system for 2017.
  • David Robertson, RP: $25MM through 2018.
  • Chris Sale, SP: $13MM through 2017.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2018 with a $1MM buyout and $15MM club option for 2019 with a $1MM buyout.  2019 option increases to $16MM with Cy Young from 2016-18.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $16.85MM through 2019.  Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and $10.5MM club option for 2020 with a $1MM buyout.  2020 option can reach $13-14MM based on 2016-19 Cy Young voting.
  • Adam Eaton, RF/CF: $19.9MM through 2019.  Includes $9.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout for 2020 and $10.5MM club option for 2021 with a $1.5MM buyout.  2021 option can reach $13MM based on 2016-20 MVP voting.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $5.85MM through 2018.  Includes club options for 2019-21, with salaries depending on games finished and on whether Jones requires right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season.

Contract Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information

In early October, Robin Ventura announced he was stepping down as White Sox manager after five seasons.  Ventura’s contract was up anyway, and it’s not clear whether the Sox had any intention of offering him a new contract.  The team almost immediately promoted bench coach Rick Renteria to manage the club, on a term that has not yet been reported.  GM Rick Hahn chose not to interview other candidates, as Renteria was atop the team’s “living document” of potential future managers.  Renteria had a difficult experience with the Cubs, managing them in a 2014 rebuilding season, doing well enough to warrant a second year, and then getting fired when Joe Maddon became available.

Rick RenteriaI don’t know if the hiring of a less experienced manager like Renteria is an indication that he will preside over a 2017 rebuild for the White Sox, as Hahn has chosen not to tip his hand on the team’s offseason direction.  Hahn did posit in August that “by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.”  As White Sox fans await this odd reveal, I’ll tackle this post from each direction.

In a rebuild scenario, the team could move a host of players that clearly won’t be part of the next good White Sox team: Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Gonzalez, David Robertson, Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and James Shields.  Frazier, 31 in February, is coming off a career-best 40 home runs and a career-worst .225 batting average.  MLBTR projects a $13.5MM salary for 2017, after which he’ll reach free agency.  The White Sox could get something useful in return, but only a handful of contenders are seeking third basemen, and the free agent market features Justin Turner and Luis Valbuena.  Cabrera is also an above-average hitter, but his value is limited by his poor defense and $15MM salary.  Robertson struggled with his control and blew seven saves on the season, but his two year, $25MM commitment would appeal to teams not willing to pay full freight for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  Gonzalez bounced back as a solid back-end starter, which is hard to come by in the 2016-17 free agent market.  Lawrie, Garcia, and Shields have little to no trade value, but moving Cabrera and Robertson would clear $40MM in commitments, and trading Frazier and Gonzalez would free up $16MM+ that would have been spent on their arbitration salaries.  It seems likely that Avisail Garcia’s time with the White Sox will come to an end soon, as the 25-year-old has shown few signs of being a useful Major Leaguer after 409 career games, 356 of which came with the White Sox.

Trading players like Frazier, Cabrera, Robertson, and Gonzalez might return a handful of decent prospects and free up payroll space but would do little to change the long-term trajectory of the White Sox.  To truly reboot the franchise and try something different, Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams will have to entertain trades for any or all of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu.  Sale and Quintana are immensely valuable assets.  Sale is among the ten best starters in baseball, and Quintana has to be in the top 20.  Both lefties will enter the 2017 season at just 28 years of age, with clean bills of health.  Both have extremely team-friendly contracts.  On the open market, Sale would be worth over $100MM for 2017-19 alone.  Instead, he’ll be paid $40.5MM at most.  Quintana will be paid at most $40.35MM over the next four seasons, which would also be valued over $100MM.  To top it off, there is no one remotely similar to Sale or Quintana in this year’s free agent market.

Nearly every team in baseball would have interest in Sale and Quintana.  Teams with a strong need for starting pitching this winter, like the Marlins, Braves, Astros, and Angels, would obviously be interested.  Others, who may add on the “only if it’s an ace” condition, like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, would be in as well. According to an August report from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the Red Sox were unwilling to part with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for one of the White Sox aces at the trade deadline.  That gives you an idea of a potential headliner, though – an established, five-win under-30 player who is under control for four more years.  Other centerpiece examples could include Starling Marte, George Springer, or Christian Yelich.  The White Sox could also try for less-established, but extremely valuable young players like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Benintendi.  The question is whether Hahn would enter the offseason hellbent on trading one or both of his aces to kick off a true rebuild, or if he’d set a price and only make the trade if that price is met.  The latter approach makes more sense, since both pitchers will still be very valuable at the July trade deadline as well as next offseason (and beyond).

In the event of a rebuild, the White Sox must also consider trading first baseman Jose Abreu, who might earn $40-45MM through arbitration over the next three seasons.  While Abreu’s power has slipped since his rookie season, he’ll turn 30 in January and has a good $20MM of surplus value in comparison to market prices for power hitters.  Teams such as the Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays are a few possible matches.  Right fielder Adam Eaton would have immense trade value, with five years of potential control remaining.  However, I see Eaton as a potential source of stability, someone who can anchor the roster even if the front office starts shipping out other top players.

We haven’t even mentioned Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson, and Nate Jones yet.  Plainly, the White Sox have too many good or great players to sell most of them off in a rebuild.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 80 years old.  Shouldn’t this team be going for it?  Let’s look at what that might require.

The White Sox have had Opening Day payrolls in the $115-120MM range in three of the past four seasons.  They peaked at about $128MM in 2011, so that might be the ceiling.  The Sox have about $74MM committed to eight players under contract for 2017.  Add another $19MM for Frazier, Gonzalez, Jennings, Petricka, and Putnam, and we’re at $93MM for 13 players.

First and foremost on the agenda should be a catcher.  The White Sox pretty much have to go outside the organization for a backstop.  They could sign one of Matt Wieters or Jason Castro in free agency, or trade for the Yankees’ Brian McCann.  Signing Castro to a two-year deal in the $15MM range would be a measured way to fill the void.

At second base, the White Sox must decide whether they would like to bring the perennially disappointing or injured Lawrie back for $5MM or so through arbitration.  I’d vote no, because payroll will be tight and they can plug in Tyler Saladino for a much cheaper solution while possibly getting similar production.  It seems likely that Lawrie can bring back some kind of spare part in trade prior to the non-tender deadline.  Free agent options at second base include Neil Walker, Chase Utley, and Sean Rodriguez, if the White Sox want to go that route.

Center field is one of the more obvious areas of upgrade for the White Sox.  Adam Eaton had an excellent season as the team’s primary right fielder and should probably stay there.  Dexter Fowler, a player to whom the Sox made an offer last winter, is a free agent again and remains a strong fit.  One big concern is that Fowler will come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning the Sox would have to surrender the #12 pick in the 2017 draft if they sign him.  Unless Fowler comes at a serious discount from our projected lucrative four-year contract, he’s not an ideal addition.  Ian Desmond comes with a similar concern.  Instead, the White Sox could roll the dice on Carlos Gomez, who struggled mightily for parts of the last two seasons but showed promise in about a month’s worth of time with the Rangers at the end of the season.  Gomez could sign a one-year deal for around $13MM in an attempt to rebuild value in Chicago, assuming they’re willing to tangle with agent Scott Boras.  The relationship between Boras and the White Sox has had contentious moments dating back to the 90s.  While it has softened in recent years, I don’t know if they would be able to get together on a free agent deal for players like Gomez, Wieters, or Kendrys Morales.

To balance out the lineup, the White Sox could use a left-handed designated hitter.  Call it the Justin Morneau/Adam LaRoche role.  This could be filled by a switch-hitter as well, with free agents such as Carlos Beltran and Kendrys Morales fitting the bill.  If the goal is more to find a bat that can hit right-handed pitching well, then certainly Edwin Encarnacion is worth considering.  However, a contract for Encarnacion would annihilate Abreu’s franchise record of $68MM and bust the payroll.  Even the $12-14MM types like Beltran and Morales could be excessive for this bat-only role.  Free agents who have been solid against righties over the past three years and would come with palatable price tags include Adam Lind, Luis Valbuena, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Coghlan, and Brandon Moss.  None of those acquisitions would excite White Sox fans, but a high-priced designated hitter is a poor allocation of limited payroll space.  One could argue that the White Sox are already paying good money for a pair of DH-types who are dragging down the defense, in Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu.  Another possibility would be to pencil Cabrera in for most of the DH at-bats, plugging the hole in left field with a defensively superior addition like trade candidate Brett Gardner.

So far we’ve added three players (or player types) to fill position player holes, and it would require about $27MM in salary for 2017.  This conservative offseason approach already requires $120MM for 16 players.  Accounting for minimum salary players, it’s difficult to see room for more significant additions.  Payroll will be tight, making the $10MM owed to James Shields in 2017 all the more painful.  Attempting to dump some of Cabrera’s salary is worth considering.  Given his subpar left field defense, he’s not providing good value to the White Sox on a $15MM salary.   Still, he was an above average hitter in two of the last three seasons, so the Sox might be able to find a team to take $8MM or so of the commitment.  The problem is that the savings might have to be reallocated to a new left fielder.  Eric Thames, coming off three huge years in Korea, could be a cheap roll of the dice for a team that would need some things to break their way to reach the playoffs.

I think the White Sox would find a taker for the majority of the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two years, though his loss would create a hole in the bullpen.  Robertson just had minor knee surgery, while Putnam had elbow surgery in August and Petricka had hip surgery in June.  A good case can be made for adding to this bullpen rather than subtracting from it.  A late-inning lefty would be a good fit, with Brett Cecil, Travis Wood, Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, and Jerry Blevins looking like the better free agents.

The White Sox look very strong in the first four rotation spots, with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Gonzalez.  Shields, 35 in December, was brutal in 22 starts for the White Sox after being acquired in December, and his contract presents a real problem.  If not for the $22MM the Sox owe Shields over the next two years, he’d be a release candidate.  The contract might force the club to give him a look as their fifth starter heading into 2017, though cutting Shields now might be better for the team’s record.  It seems unlikely that the White Sox could bite the bullet and release Shields and also pour additional money into the rotation opening.

Most of the proposed roster solutions here have come from free agency.  In reality, Hahn will certainly look at the trade market.  The White Sox remain light on prospects, and would have to consider trading top names like Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Spencer Adams, or Zack Burdi to bring in Major League talent.  Trading from this group seems like digging a deeper long-term hole.

Whichever path Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn choose, I don’t expect a major organizational shift from the White Sox this offseason.  I can’t picture a $150MM+ payroll and a free agent megadeal or two, nor do I expect the team to clean house by trading Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and others.  This front office has taken the middle road before; perhaps there is enough talent on the roster to try it one last time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outrighted: Red Sox, Angels, ChiSox, Braves, Pirates, Giants

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The seventh game of the World Series rightly dominated the baseball landscape Wednesday, but there were also several outrights from around the majors. Here are those assignments:

  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve activated Josh Rutledge from the disabled list and outrighted him off the 40-man roster. The 27-year-old hit .265/.345/.388 in 56 plate appearances with the Sox this season and is a lifetime .262/.312/.397 hitter in 1088 Major League PAs. Capable of playing second base, third base and shortstop, Rutledge should find opportunities to make a club as a bench piece next spring when he inevitably elects free agency following his outright assignment.

Earlier Updates

  • The Angels have outrighted left-hander Brett Oberholtzer to Triple-A Salt Lake. The club previously designated Oberholtzer for assignment Oct. 28, which came after he logged a career-worst 5.89 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 42.3 percent ground-ball rate in 70 innings between the Phillies and Angels this year. Overall, Oberholtzer has posted a 4.36 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate in 324 major league innings.
  • The White Sox have outrighted outfielder J.B. Shuck to Triple-A Charlotte. Shuck has over 1,000 major league plate appearances to his name, and 406 of those have come with the White Sox since last season. In 241 PAs this year, Shuck batted a woeful .205/.248/.299.
  • The Braves have outrighted right-handers Casey Kelly and Brandon Cunniff to Triple-A Gwinnett. Kelly placed anywhere from 24th to 76th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings from 2009-12, but injury- and performance-related issues have beset the former Red Sox and Padres farmhand. Notably, Kelly went from Boston to San Diego in 2010 in a deal involving then-Padres prospect and current Cubs superstar Anthony Rizzo. That trade brought first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. The Padres then sent Kelly to the Braves last offseason for catcher/pitcher/outfielder Christian Bethancourt. The 27-year-old Kelly subsequently amassed 21 2/3 frames of 5.82 ERA pitching with matching strikeout and walk rates (2.91 over nine innings) this season. Cunniff has logged 52 big league innings – all with the Braves since last season – and recorded a 4.50 ERA, 9.17 K/9 and 5.37 BB/9.
  • The Pirates have outrighted infielder Pedro Florimon, catcher Jacob Stallings and southpaw Zach Phillips to Triple-A Indianapolis. The most notable member of the group is Florimon, a defensive specialist who has collected a combined 752 major league plate appearances with the Orioles, Twins and Pirates. Only 50 of those PAs have come with Pittsburgh since he joined the organization via waivers prior to the 2015 season. Stallings, whom the Pirates chose in the seventh round of the 2012 draft, took his first 15 major league trips to the plate this year. Phillips also got some work with the Bucs this season, impressing over 6 2/3 innings (two earned runs, six strikeouts, one walk). The 30-year-old previously racked up 15 2/3 total frames with the Orioles and Marlins.
  • The Giants have outrighted catcher Tony Sanchez to Triple-A Sacramento. Sanchez has accumulated just 155 major league PAs since Pittsburgh drafted him fourth overall in 2009. He divided 2016 between the Triple-A affiliates of the Blue Jays and Giants and combined for an ugly .201/.298/.317 line across 228 PAs.
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