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Latest On Cardinals’ Interest In Erick Fedde

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White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde has been connected to plenty of teams in the run-up to this summer’s trade deadline, including the Brewers and Astros, but no team has been more frequently connected to the right-hander than the Cardinals. The club’s “strong interest” in the 2023 KBO MVP’s services was reported last week, and since then multiple reports have connected Fedde to St. Louis as the Cards scour the market for an affordable starting pitching option to bolster their current rotation of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante.

The fit between St. Louis and Fedde is a fairly obvious one given the club’s uncertain rotation situation headed into 2025 and Fedde’s additional year of team control after 2024. Even setting the contractual fit aside, the right-hander sports a strong 3.11 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 21 starts with Chicago this year. If Fedde were in the St. Louis rotation with those numbers, he’d have the lowest ERA by more than half a run and the second-lowest FIP behind only Sonny Gray’s sterling 2.85 figure. With the Cardinals just one game back of a Wild Card spot and six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, the addition of Fedde would not only help them as they look to return to the postseason after a last place finish in their division last year but would also give the club a solid front-of-the-rotation arm to start alongside Gray in a potential Wild Card series.

Clear as the fit between the Cardinals and Fedde may be, there appear to be some hurdles preventing a deal from coming together for the time being. With so many potential suitors for his services, the White Sox appear to have set a hefty asking price in trade for the 31-year-old. According to SoxMachine’s James Fegan, the South Siders have “at least tried” to include young outfielder Jordan Walker in trade talks with the Cardinals regarding Fedde. St. Louis’s first-round pick in the 2020 draft, Walker was a consensus top-5 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 campaign but has struggled somewhat at the big league level so far.

The youngster hit a solid but unspectacular .276/.342/.445 in his rookie season last year and was optioned back to the minor leagues back in April after an abysmal .155/.239/.259 showing in his first 20 games this season. Since returning to Triple-A, Walker has continued to struggle as he’s hit just .237/.305/.372 in 295 trips to the plate at the level this year. Despite those deep struggles, however, Walker is still just one season removed from being an above-average hitter in the big leagues, won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season, and is still very young at just 22 years old. That’s an incredibly steep price to pay for one-plus years of a starting pitcher, even one as talented as Fedde.

Given there’s no indication that the Cardinals have been at all receptive to including Walker in a Fedde deal, it seems as though the sides may be facing a gap in trade talks. Even if that’s the case, though, that doesn’t necessarily mean a deal sending Fedde to St. Louis couldn’t eventually come together. As noted by Ari Alexander of KPRC-2, the White Sox and Cardinals have “discussed” the potential framework of a three-team trade that would also involve the Dodgers. Los Angeles is known to have interest in Cardinals switch-hitting utilityman Tommy Edman, and The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported earlier today that St. Louis is hoping to acquire cost-controlled starting pitching in return for Edman.

That would make a hypothetical three-team trade in which the Cardinals acquire Fedde from the White Sox while giving up Edman to the Dodgers seemingly reasonable framework, although it’s unclear whether the Cardinals would have to part with more pieces than just Edman to make the deal work, nor is it clear which pieces the Dodgers would ship to Chicago to complete their end of the bargain. Speculatively speaking, if the White Sox were interested in acquiring Walker as the centerpiece of a deal for Fedde, the Dodgers could dangle a young hitter of their own such as James Outman or Miguel Vargas as a centerpiece for their part of the trade.

Alexander reports that no deal between the sides is in place as things stand, but the discussions seem to confirm a willingness to get creative on the part of all sides as the Cardinals continue their pursuit of pitching upgrades while the Dodgers look to lengthen a lineup that has lost key pieces like Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and Miguel Rojas to injury, leaving them with well below average production in the back half of their lineup.

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein

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While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman’s services.  The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.

Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season.  Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle.  He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.

The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate.  However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.

The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025.  The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.

Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth.  For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.

It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse.  Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year.  He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.

Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers.  In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers.  With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.

The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined.  Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.

In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters.  Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem.  Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.

Brewers Interested In Erick Fedde

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The Brewers are in contact with the White Sox regarding starter Erick Fedde, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Cardinals are also known to be involved on Fedde, while he’s one of a number of pitchers in whom the Astros have reportedly shown interest. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets have also checked in with the Sox on Fedde, though it’s not clear how seriously they’re pursuing him.

Fedde is one of the top targets for teams seeking mid-rotation help. The righty enters tonight’s start against the Mariners with 117 2/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball. He’s running average or better strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks. His .261 average on balls in play will probably come up a bit and push his ERA above 3.00, but the former National looks like a #3 caliber starter.

The Sox signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal after an MVP season in Korea. That was one of the best value pickups of the offseason and should net them a strong prospect return. Fedde is making $7.5MM in each season. Less than $2.6MM remains to be paid, so he’s appealing both to lower-payroll clubs and those that have luxury tax concerns. The Brewers, of course, fit in the former category.

Milwaukee already acquired a back-end starter this month, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. Fedde is a cleaner fit to start a postseason game, though. Even with Civale in the fold, Milwaukee is running something of a patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta. While they’ve gotten good work from journeyman Colin Rea and 26-year-old rookie Tobias Myers, Milwaukee could certainly accommodate another starter.

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeted yesterday that the Brewers were open to the possibility of trading from their big league roster. The Sox are near the bottom of a rebuild and won’t be competitive for multiple seasons. That frees them up to take upside shots on low minors talent, but they could also take a flier on a controllable big leaguer who isn’t playing a significant role. Milwaukee has a lot of outfield talent. FanSided’s Robert Murray wrote yesterday that 25-year-old Garrett Mitchell has come up in some of the Brewers’ trade discussions.

Murray did not report that the Brewers have discussed Mitchell with the White Sox specifically or that Chicago would have interest in him as part of a Fedde deal, to be clear. Speculatively speaking, taking a shot on a player with Mitchell’s physical tools could be intriguing for the White Sox. (That’s also true of Joey Wiemer, a former top prospect who hasn’t produced in the majors but is only 25 himself.) Chicago made a similar roll of the dice in an offseason trade with the D-Backs for Dominic Fletcher.

The Mets weren’t expected to be in the rotation market. As recently as a couple weeks ago, New York was contemplating trading away a starter. That was based on their optimism in Kodai Senga returning from the injured list and Christian Scott coming back from the minors. Instead, Scott suffered a UCL sprain and Senga is likely to miss the rest of the season after straining his calf last night.

That could make the Mets a surprising bidder for rotation help. The Athletic’s Will Sammon indeed writes that New York is likely to at least explore the market. The Mets were reportedly the runner-up for Fedde in free agency last winter, so they were optimistic about the pitcher even before his successful return to the majors.

Mike Clevinger To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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The White Sox announced this afternoon that veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger will miss the remainder of the 2024 season following disc replacement surgery in his neck, which he’s scheduled to undergo on August 1. The 33-year-old has been on the injured list due to elbow inflammation since late May but started a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level last month.

Clevinger, 33, will ultimately make just four starts in the majors this year after signing with the White Sox on a $3MM deal shortly after Opening Day. He struggled in the limited time he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 6.75 ERA and 6.21 FIP in 16 innings of work. It’s a disappointing showing for both player and team in Clevinger’s second consecutive year with the White Sox, particularly after he delivered a solid season in 2023 when he posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 131 1/3 innings of work while ending the season on a strong note with a 2.45 ERA over his final 11 starts.

That strong stretch to end the 2023 campaign was reminiscent of the veteran’s best days, when he pitched for Cleveland. After a difficult rookie season in 2016, Clevinger broke out in 2017 to become one of the better starters in the game and over the next three seasons posted a fantastic 2.96 ERA with a 3.32 FIP in 447 2/3 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Clevinger shortly after he was traded to the Padres during the shortened 2020 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in the year and missed the entire 2021 campaign while rehabbing. He’s struggled to stay on the mound ever since, having pitched just just 303 1/3 innings of work total since the start of the 2023 season. While his overall numbers during that time paint a picture of a roughly average back-end arm, he’s frequent injury woes and step back from his peak in the late 2010’s have left him unable to contribute anything even close to his former dominant form.

While Clevinger’s injury woes and lackluster results when he did take the mound this year left him a somewhat unlikely trade candidate in the days leading up to Tuesday’s deadline, his impending surgery not only eliminates whatever remote possibility of a trade still existed but also leaves the White Sox without a veteran arm who otherwise may have been able to fill out the rotation following the possible departure of arms like Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill quite frequently this summer.

A timeline for Clevinger’s return to the mound isn’t yet clear, though it’s worth noting that veteran outfielder Jesse Winker underwent a similar procedure in October 2022 and was back in action in time for Spring Training last year. If Clevinger follows a similar timeline, he’ll enter free agency this winter coming off a lost season in 2024 but likely to be ready to go in time for when pitchers and catchers report next February.

Mariners Still Active In Trade Market

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The Mariners’ acquisition of Randy Arozarena last night is perhaps the most notable swap of the season thus far, but Seattle isn’t content with that lone acquisition. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the M’s are still talking to other clubs, looking to add another bat and a high-leverage reliever. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times adds some context on the team’s search for bats, reporting that two of the top bats on the market — Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Chicago’s Luis Robert — may not be likely to land in Seattle. The A’s have been reluctant to trade with Seattle, per Jude, while an acquisition of Robert is considered “highly unlikely at this point.”

Both Rooker and Robert would add a controllable, high-end bat to what has been a stagnant Mariners offense. Rooker is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled three more years. Robert is signed through the 2025 season, and his contract contains a pair of $20MM club options.

The A’s haven’t always been reluctant to deal within the AL West, but the last time they completed a trade with the Mariners came back in 2017, when the two clubs swapped Emilio Pagan for Ryon Healy. In fact, the only trade they’ve made with a division rival in the past three years was this April’s acquisition of righty Brandon Bielak in a deal that sent cash back to the Astros. It’s always possible there’ll be a change in direction, but their once-frequent intra-division trades (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Pagan, Healy) have dried up in recent years.

With regard to Robert, there’s no intra-division component to be considered, but traction on Robert hasn’t really picked up, it seems. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the White Sox have set a high asking price and haven’t yet seen potential trade partners willing to meet it or even come particularly close.

The mere mention of Rooker and Robert aligns largely with the latest reporting from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, who suggests that Seattle’s front office has been “aggressive” in trying to add multiple impact bats. Arozarena checks one box, but the Mariners’ lineup could use upgrades at multiple spots.

It’s even possible the M’s and Rays could line up on another deal; Kramer writes that the two teams discussed infielders Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz in the offseason. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Mariners are again a potential landing spot for Diaz, who is drawing trade interest and was reinstated from the restricted list within the past hour after a week-long absence to tend to an undisclosed family matter.

Like Arozarena, the 32-year-old Diaz got out to a slow start in 2024 but has heated up in recent months. Over his past 280 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .302/.354/.453 with seven homers, 16 doubles, a triple and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. He’d give the Mariners an upgrade over the recently designated Ty France and simultaneously accomplish the team’s ongoing goal of reducing their MLB-worst strikeout rate. He’s earning $8MM the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract extension and is owed $10MM in 2025 before the team must decide on a $12MM option for the 2026 season.

Paredes, 25, is arguably one of the most appealing possibilities on the entire trade market. He’s played third base primarily of late, but the versatile infielder can handle all four infield positions and has emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order slugger. Dating back to Opening Day 2023, he’s slashed .250/.353/.469 with 47 homers in 241 games. He’s earning only $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration seasons (as a Super Two player). Paredes’ versatility, productive bat, remaining control and currently affordable price tag could make the prospect cost to acquire him prohibitive, but the Rays are generally open to listen on anyone — and teams have been at least inquiring on Paredes recently.

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Garrett Crochet Hoping To Stay In Rotation, Desires Extension Before Pitching In October

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Garrett Crochet of the White Sox has had a very unusual trajectory which makes him one of the more unique trade candidates. Per reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post as well as Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, Crochet would prefer to stay in a starting role through the end of the year but clubs have concerns about how he will hold up down the stretch. As he pushes his workload into uncharted personal territory, he reportedly desires a contract extension before pitching in October.

This is a situation that has been a long time coming, given the strange combination of Crochet’s elite 2024 campaign and lack of previous track record. Back in 2018, he tossed 63 2/3 innings of college ball in Tennessee, then added another 65 innings the year after. In 2020, he missed some time due to shoulder soreness and then tossed just 3 1/3 innings before the pandemic shutdown.

The Sox then selected him 11th overall in that summer’s draft. There were no minor league games that year due to the pandemic, but they called him up the majors and he pitched six innings down the stretch. With his limited workload, they kept him in a relief role in 2021 and he tossed 54 1/3 innings that year. Then Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 season and limited him to just 25 innings in 2023: 12 2/3 in the majors plus 12 1/3 minor league frames from his rehab assignment.

That left Crochet coming into 2024 with 217 1/3 innings of official game action on his arm over the six-year period from 2018 to 2023. The 65 innings from his second college season were his personal high for one year and his biggest workload as a professional was the 54 1/3 relief innings from 2021. Ignoring the college years altogether and he only had 85 1/3 innings as a professional, majors and minors combined, coming into this year. He only logged 25 totals innings over the past two years.

Despite all of that, the Sox stretched him out as a starter this year and the results have been better than anyone could have reasonably hoped. Through 21 starts, he has logged 111 1/3 innings, a higher tally than his entire professional workload coming into the season. He has allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine innings with a 35.4% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate.

Despite the fairly limited number of innings, Crochet has actually been nudging towards free agency due to all that time spent on the injured list. He crossed three years of service last year and qualified for arbitration. But due to all the missed time, he only got his salary bumped to $800K, just barely over this year’s $740K league minimum. He’ll be able to raise his salary via two more arbitration passes before he’s slated for the open market after the 2026 season.

Normally, a 25-year-old having a breakout as a bonafide ace wouldn’t be available on the trade market, but the circumstances of the Sox might allow it to happen. They are awful this year, with a record of 27-77, easily the worst in baseball this season and in the running for one of the worst ever. It will take a lot of work to get them back to contention and it may not happen within their window of control over Crochet.

Signing him to an extension would be a possibility but his quick call-up means that he’s on track to hit free agency after his age-27 season. That puts him on a path for a massive free agent payday if he stays healthy for the next few years, so he may not want to give that up easily.

All of these factors have made Crochet seemingly available and in plenty of trade rumors. He has already been connected to the Padres and Dodgers with plenty of other clubs presumably interested as well given his performance, affordability and availability.

But hanging over all of this has been the question of what an acquiring team could expect from Crochet down the stretch. Given that he’s ventured so far beyond his previous workloads, would he be able to continue starting for the rest of the year? Would he need to be moved to a relief role or shut down completely? The two extra years of cheap control are obviously still appealing but teams would naturally have questions about what remains in 2024.

From Crochet’s perspective, it’s understandable that he may want the security of having an extension in place before the postseason arrives. Any club acquiring him would be hoping for him to be playing a key role through a World Series run, either as a starter or a reliever. Since he’s already missed significant time due to Tommy John surgery and is currently pushing his arm to places it’s never been before, it’s fair that he’s thinking about a safety net. Crochet reportedly wants to keep starting, believing that to be the best option for his long-term health. If any club wants to shift him to a relief or hybrid role, he would want to be given an extension first.

He wouldn’t really have the ability to simply decide to shut himself down, but at the same time, a theoretical club acquiring him would have some overlapping interest with Crochet. Trading for Crochet is already a long-term proposition with his two extra years of control, so any club acquiring him would naturally want to keep him happy and healthy for at least that amount of time. Given his obvious talents, keeping him around for longer via an extension would have appeal as well.

But negotiating contract extensions can be tricky business and accomplishing something like that in short order during an ongoing pennant race would be a challenge. That might be especially true in Crochet’s case, as all the unique circumstances of his career might make it difficult to align on value.

Perhaps all of these complications reduce the chances of a trade coming together in the next few days. The White Sox don’t necessarily need to trade him now, given the extra two years of club control. An offseason trade could perhaps even lead to a larger market of suitors, as the Sox wouldn’t be limited only to those currently contending. Waiting until the offseason would come with some risk of Crochet getting hurt between now and then and they would also be marketing two postseason runs instead of three, but the workload/extension concerns might be a thing of the past if he can finish the season healthy.

Taken all together, there are plenty of moving parts here and it should lead to White Sox general manager Chris Getz spending plenty of time on the phone in the next few days. The circumstances around Crochet are fairly unprecedented, meaning there’s no real blueprint for what’s to come.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

White Sox Agree To Terms With No. 5 Pick Hagen Smith

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The White Sox have deals with their top two draft picks. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports (X links) that Chicago agreed to an $8MM bonus with fifth overall pick Hagen Smith and a $3MM sum with second-rounder Caleb Bonemer.

Smith, a left-hander from the University of Arkansas, was the second pitcher off the board. He and Wake Forest righty Chase Burns were 1-2 among pitchers in some order on virtually every pre-draft rankings. Cincinnati selected Burns with the second pick and signed him to a record $9.25MM bonus. Smith, the final top five draftee to agree to terms, lands the fourth-largest bonus of the class.

The 6’3″ southpaw worked from the rotation in all three seasons in Fayetteville. He had his best season as a junior, turning in a 2.06 earned run average across 84 innings in the SEC. Smith trailed only Burns among Division I pitchers with 161 strikeouts, an incredible 48.6% rate. Even with an elevated 10.3% walk rate, he was far too dominant for most college hitters.

Prospect evaluators credit Smith with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a plus or better slider. Baseball America notes that Smith’s 3/4 arm slot allows his fastball to generate a tough angle at the top of the strike zone. BA raises some questions about the infrequency with which Smith used his changeup in college, while The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that his setup on the first base side of the rubber made it difficult for him to attack right-handed batters on the inner half. Those quibbles (plus a Tommy John surgery which Smith underwent in high school) lead to some risk, but there’s also massive upside given the quality of his top two pitches.

Bonemer is a righty-hitting infielder from a Michigan high school. He’d been slated to attend the University of Virginia but will head to pro ball on an overslot deal. The 43rd overall selection comes with a $2.17MM slot value. Bonemer’s bonus pays him like a late first-round talent. Evaluators praise his power upside and give him a good chance to play somewhere in the infield. Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each raise some concern about his pure hitting ability, with Law’s pre-draft report pointing to Bonemer’s tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing.

Report: Cardinals Have “Strong Interest” In Erick Fedde

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The Cardinals have “strong interest” in White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning. Fedde is among a number of controllable pieces that the White Sox have made available this summer, alongside breakout left-hander Garrett Crochet and star center fielder Luis Robert Jr.

Fedde, 31, lacks the star power of either Crochet or Robert but is nonetheless one of the most attractive pieces expected to be available this summer. The former first-round pick was a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball in the late 2010’s but generally struggled at the big league level after debuting with the Nationals back in 2017. In parts of six season with the club, Fedde posted a lackluster 5.41 ERA in 102 appearances, including 88 starts. Those struggles led Fedde to depart affiliate ball to pitch in the Korea Baseball Organization last year, and the stint overseas hardly could’ve gone better for the righty. In an MVP campaign for the NC Dinos, Fedde posted a sterling 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts while striking out 29.5% of batters faced.

The righty’s success overseas earned him renewed stateside interest this past winter, and the White Sox ultimately pounced by offering him a two-year, $15MM guarantee. The deal has gone about as well as anyone could’ve have hoped so far. Through 19 starts this season, Fedde appears to be an entirely different pitcher than he was in his days with the Nationals. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a near-match for his career-best mark from 2021, and his 6.6% walk rate is by far the lowest of his MLB career. After allowing a whopping 18.1% of his fly balls to the leave the yard for home runs during his time with the Nationals, Fedde has greatly improved in that regard this year as well with just 9.2% of his fly balls ending up in the stands so far. In all, that’s left Fedde with an excellent 2.99 ERA (138 ERA+) and a solid 3.53 FIP (82 FIP-) in 111 1/3 innings of work this season.

That sort of production would be welcome in virtually any contender’s rotation, and it’s surely all the more enticing for clubs that Fedde is under control for the 2025 season at a bargain $7.5MM price tag as well. That combination of low financial cost, team control, and production makes Fedde a strong candidate for virtually any pitching-hungry team in the league, so it’s easy to see why the Cardinals would have interest in the right-hander’s services.

Injury woes have kept veteran lefty Steven Matz out of action since late April, forcing the Cardinals to rely on pieces like Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore to fill out the rotation behind Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson. Even that front quartet has yielded mix results, with Gray and Gibson’s solid numbers being offset by the struggles of Lynn and Mikolas. Altogether, Cardinals starters this season have delivered a lackluster 4.43 ERA that ranks in the bottom ten among all major league clubs.

Despite those woes in the rotation, St. Louis has surged since an early-season slump and is currently sitting at a 52-47 record that places them firmly in the NL Wild Card picture and just five games back of the Brewers for the NL Central crown. The addition of a quality, playoff-caliber starter to their rotation would be a huge boost not only for their chances of making it into the postseason, but also for their odds in a potential Wild Card series, where Fedde could pair with Gray to make an impressive front two that could go toe-to-toe with most contenders in the NL. What’s more, Fedde’s additional year of team control could make him a particularly attractive option for a club that currently boasts 33-year-old Matz as the youngest arm in the rotation, and could stand to lose both Gibson and Lynn to free agency this winter if the club declines their club options on the veteran duo.

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