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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the White Sox.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 9th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Bartolo Colon, Dayan Viciedo, Brent Lillibridge, Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, Jayson Nix, Kelvin Jimenez, Ryan Braun, Franklyn German, John Van Benschoten, Tyler Flowers, Ben Broussard, Bryan Myrow, Josh Kroeger, Michael Restovich

Subtractions: Nick Swisher, Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Pablo Ozuna.  Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar

The '09 squad will be appreciably different, especially the offense.  How will they compare to the 4.98 runs per game scored last year?  CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool suggest 5.07 runs per game, which would again rank 5th in the AL.  This simulation has Chris Getz leading off and DeWayne Wise splitting time evenly with Brian Anderson.  Gone are the 2,075 ABs given to Cabrera, Swisher, Crede, Uribe, Griffey, and Hall.

If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at last year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games.  Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?

Last year's rotation posted a 4.09 ERA in 998.3 innings, 4th in the league.  Vazquez contributed 21% of those innings, but at a 4.67 ERA.  Once again, the White Sox will have to prove projection systems wrong.  CHONE sees a Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras/Colon/Richard/Marquez rotation posting a 4.91 ERA in 934 innings.  There is a good case to be made that projection systems are selling the newly-locked up Floyd short by calling for a 5.00+ ERA.  And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark.  Still, it would've been nice to see the Sox add more starting depth or hang on to Vazquez.

Logan's 5.95 ERA is gone from the bullpen; the core group returns.  Projections suggest that as a whole, the pen is capable of repeating its 4.13 ERA.

Defensively, the White Sox ranked 12th of 14 AL teams according to The Fielding Bible II.  The book says the poor fielding was spread across the diamond, with above-average work only at shortstop, third base, and left field.  Fields can't match Crede at third, and the Getz/Ramirez middle infield is an unknown.  Not having Swisher and Griffey in center should help.

GM Ken Williams took a gamble dealing Vazquez, as the '09 rotation is not necessarily a strength.  As presently constructed, even with a quality offense, this team seems destined to win 84 games at best.  The standard disclaimer: the Ken Williams' White Sox have never been predictable.

Bottom line: The White Sox will again need multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08.

White Sox Likely To Stay In-House For Center Field

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On Wednesday Ken Rosenthal said available Yankees center fielder Melky Cabrera "would be a perfect fit for the White Sox."  Rosenthal originally had the Sox interested in Gary Matthews Jr., but updated his column saying that a source refuted the item.

Manager Ozzie Guillen wants to stay in-house for center field, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune:

"No, we're not going (outside the organization).  I don't want that to happen. I don't like that to happen. If we have to go outside the organization right now, gosh, I'm not going to say we're in trouble. But as a ballclub, we have enough guys here to resolve that problem."

Currently the contenders are Jerry Owens, Brian Anderson, and DeWayne Wise.

Rosenthal On Melky, Matthews, Pedro, Ohman

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As usual, good stuff from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Rosenthal says the Yankees are open to moving Melky Cabrera, and opines that the White Sox would be a perfect fit.  Trading Cabrera would open up the Yankees' outfield picture for sure, but leave them shakier in center with Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher.  Rosenthal also says the White Sox have expressed some interest in a deal to acquire Gary Matthews Jr., assuming the Angels pay "the vast majority of the $33MM remaining on the final three years of his contract."
  • Pedro Martinez reached out to the Royals before they signed Sidney Ponson, but KC couldn't afford him.  Would Pedro have been a better signing than Horacio Ramirez and Willie Bloomquist?  Martinez's friends are telling him his $5MM asking price is unrealistic.  Rosenthal says that if Pedro drops it down to $1-2MM, he can probably get the Dodgers and other teams involved.
  • The Marlins are looking for relief help.  They like Will Ohman but not his $2MM asking price.
  • The A's thought they were close to a $1.7MM deal for Joe Beimel before he went to the Nats for $300K more.
  • Catcher Ronny Paulino, acquired by the Phillies from the Pirates in December, is available.  Rosenthal considers the Marlins a possible fit.

Odds & Ends: Beckham, Taschner, Red Sox

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Links for Wednesday…

Danks Discusses Extension Offer

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MLB.com's Scott Merkin talked to White Sox starter John Danks, who recently turned down the team's offer of a four-year, $15.5MM extension (Gavin Floyd accepted the same offer).  Danks was excited by the offer, but his agent advised him not to take it:

"I was thrilled to death.  I was advised that it wasn't the right time for that deal, but at the same time, never in a million years, never did I think I would have turned down a guaranteed 15. It was a hard decision, but that's why I pay my agent. We'll move on from there."

So at least the desire to stay in Chicago is evident with Danks.  Danks mentioned two more times that he turned down the offer on the advice of his agent Jeff Berry.  He even admitted, "When I heard $15 million, I was like 'Heck yeah.'"  Berry wants Danks to wait until after '09, when he'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time.  Presumably Berry has his eye on a Jon Lester deal.

Rosenthal On White Sox, Pedro, Baker

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • The White Sox are still trying to figure out their center field situation, but they are not involved on pricey veterans such as Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.
  • Fantasy alert: Rosenthal names David Aardsma as the likely leader for the Mariners closer job, with Chad Cordero and Brandon Morrow lingering.
  • The Dodgers "continue to balk at Pedro Martinez's $5MM asking price."
  • Rockies utility man Jeff Baker, who is out of options, is drawing interest from the Phillies, Astros, and Pirates.  Rosenthal suggests recently-demoted Kyle Kendrick as a possible target for Colorado, assuming the Phils can move Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs to clear a spot.  Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post says the Yankees are unlikely to acquire Baker.
  • The Blue Jays have been scouting shortstops Chin-Lung Hu, Juan Castro, and others in hopes of finding someone they can stash at Triple A for insurance.
  • Was Willy Taveras a bad move for the Reds?  Rosenthal says rival executives think so.

Odds & Ends: Gregerson, Hanley, Strasburg

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Links for Monday…

White Sox Trade On The Horizon?

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Scot Gregor writes that White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams may have addressed the team's need of a leadoff hitter via the trade market.

Earlier today, Joe Cowley had a Twitter update saying Juan Pierre could be on his way to Chicago, though it wasn't a reliable source. He debunked his own rumor shortly after, stating "Juan Pierre still a Dodger."

One trade did happen, as confirmed by both Cowley and Gregor, though. The Sox sent catcher Chris Stewart to the Yankees for a player to be named later.

Sox Lock Up Floyd, But Not Danks or Quentin

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3:04pm: Scot Gregor has the breakdown of the years. Floyd will receive $750K this season, $2.75MM for 2010, $5MM for 2011, and $7MM for 2012.

Gregor adds that they also offered the same deal to Carlos Quentin, who passed as well. Quentin, 27, was a monster last season, posting a line of .288/.394/.571 and blasting 36 HRs in just 130 games. He missed the end of the season after breaking his right wrist.

2:28pm: According to a Twitter update on Joe Cowley's blog, the White Sox have signed Gavin Floyd to a four-year, $15.5MM extension, with a $9.5MM option for 2013.

Floyd, 26, was solid in his first full season, posting a 17-6 record with a 3.84 ERA, and an opponent batting average of .241. The deal is similar to Paul Maholm's extension this winter, and nearly identical to the deal that Scott Baker recently signed. The contract buys out all three of Floyd's arbitration years.

Cowley also reports that John Danks was offered the same contract, but rejected it.

Danks, 24 in April, posted a 12-9 record with a 3.32 ERA, and a .246 BAA. His K:BB ratio of 2.78:1 and K/9 of 7.33 are superior to Floyd's marks of 2.07:1 and 6.33.

Possible Bidders For Holliday

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney previews the Matt Holliday derby that's likely to take place once the left fielder becomes a free agent at the end of the season. He's poised to become the biggest name available and has Scott Boras representing him: 

  • Olney starts off by saying "Oakland will not re-sign him," bringing up Mark Mulder, Barry Zito,Tim Hudson and Miguel Tejada to make his point.
  • The Cardinals may not have the money to become involved and the Mets aren't spending quite as freely these days. The Cubs have already made commitments to Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano and the Dodgers won't have much flexibility if Manny Ramirez is still around.
  • The Angels could pursue Holliday as a replacement for Vladimir Guerrero, whose contract also expires this year.
  • The Red Sox have some aging offensive players, but Olney writes that their front office was "livid" with Boras over the Mark Teixeira negotiations.
  • The Yankees could pursue Holliday to replace Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui. At least one scout thinks Holliday's swing is perfect for (the new) Yankee Stadium.  
  • Olney writes that Holliday could work for the White Sox, but says it's no accident they don't sign many Boras clients.  
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