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Scouting The Reds

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The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th.  It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade.  Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.

Five articles referenced Dunn this morning.  The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:

"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."

One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton.  But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable.  The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades.  While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract.  And he’d have to be open to playing left field.  Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.

The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more.  Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too.  Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn.  I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.

Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market.  The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg.  Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.

Could The Cardinals Acquire Buehrle?

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Larry over at Viva El Birdos breaks down exactly how rare a trade of a pitcher of Mark Buehrle’s caliber would be.  He also compares previous midseason deals for big-name starters to see what the Cardinals or any other team might have to send over to Chicago.

Another marquee pitcher dealt midseason was Randy Johnson in 1998.  While the age 34 season is rarely considered a player’s prime, the Unit didn’t really establish himself until he was 26.  Anyway, that deal required a serious bounty of John Halama, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia.  Halama had a few useful seasons, Garcia became Seattle’s ace, and Guillen developed into a star.  Guillen didn’t break out until he joined the Tigers in ’04, however. 

Will Rowand Return To White Sox?

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Center fielder Aaron Rowand has achieved some sort of cult status in Chicago, with many Sox fans convinced that he has the mojo or special something that the team has been lacking.  With the White Sox in Philadelphia this week, five articles were produced this morning surrounding a few comments Rowand made about returning to Chicago.

He admitted that he has a "soft spot" for the Sox, all things being equal.  I assume that means the White Sox matching the best contract offer Rowand receives on the free agent market this winter.  While Rowand was almost traded back to the White Sox a couple of times this year, Scot Gregor thinks free agency is the more likely path.  Meanwhile Sam Donnellon tosses out a Rowand for Mark Buehrle proposal.

Rowand considers himself a possible "leftover" in a sea of free agent center fielders.  He’s just being modest.  Aside from Corey Patterson, who’s having an awful year, and Milton Bradley, who’s been on the DL three times this season, Rowand is the youngest available CF.  He’s more affordable than the Big Three (or Four if you include Mike Cameron) and younger too.  He’s a better defender than Eric Byrnes.  And he’s in the midst of a career year.  If Rowand can stay healthy he may be looking at a Gary Matthews Jr. deal.

I am a little bummed that Rowand is not drawing walks like he was in the first two months of the season.  He seems to have reverted to his old ways in June.

White Sox Won’t Trade For Prospects

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White Sox GM Kenny Williams spoke to reporters yesterday, indicating that his phone lines are buzzing but he won’t be trading his future free agents for prospects.  Talent for talent is the name of the game, though the Jermaine Dye/Bobby Abreu talks have apparently died.

The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA.  And I rounded up.  They’re in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central.  They’re in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out.  If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%.  Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance.  I’d lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Williams is an optimist, which fans have to appreciate.  He even mentioned that he’s up for the "rent-a-player scenario."  That could mean acquiring even more impending free agents, like perhaps Adam Dunn.

Like all other teams, Williams has almost two months to decide if his team is truly a contender.  The worst outcome would be treading water for that time period.

Kenny Williams Loves Aaron Rowand

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Several years ago, Billy Beane described Erubiel Durazo as his "Holy Grail".  Beane had been in pursuit of the young slugger, coveting his plate discipline and projecting him as a middle-of-the-order type for the A’s lineup.

At this point, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams’ pursuit of Aaron Rowand is beginning to reach similar status.  From Phil Rodgers in the Chicago Tribune:

If the Phillies are willing to try to get Mike MacDougal straightened out, the reliever could be a centerpiece in a White Sox deal for Aaron Rowand. The Phillies desperately need bullpen help and are letting teams know Rowand could be available in the right deal. The speedy Michael Bourn seems ready to move into a regular role in Philadelphia’s outfield.

The outfield is one of the few places the Phillies actually have some depth/interchangeable parts, and with Aaron Rowand’s average hovering around .325 for most of the season so far, the Phillies may be thinking it’s time to "sell high" on the centerfielder.

However, it isn’t Michael Bourn who would take over in center, more likely Shane Victorino would shift to centerfield while Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth would probably platoon in rightfield.  Bourn shows promise but right now, he is still too raw for anything more than Pat Burrell’s caddy for late-inning defensive/pinch-running and the occasional start.  Really, he would be better off playing in AAA everyday and honing his skills on a regular basis.

Having said that, it will probably take a little more than Mike MacDougal to get things done in a deal like this.  A slumping middle-reliever for a streaking everyday player isn’t very even.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

Abreu For Dye Swap Still Alive

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Ken Rosenthal’s recent report indicated that the Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu talks had cooled over the last week or so.  However, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated today that this deal "has started to take some life."

Read the article, and you’ll find some quotes from Dye that apparently have annoyed the White Sox.  Personally I think his comments are just fine.  Basically he says that he will play hard for any team, and that swapping him for another veteran won’t ignite the Sox.  Who can disagree with that?  Would Abreu really spark the Sox?

The last time the Sox made a challenge trade like this, if I recall correctly, was the Esteban Loaiza for Jose Contreras swap, also with the Yankees.  That occurred at the 2004 trading deadline, and worked out quite well for the Sox.

I don’t like this trade for Chicago though.  Despite his struggles, Dye is on a 30 homer pace.  And the $16MM option on Abreu next year – that’s only appealing if he’s an All-Star for the White Sox.  That’s hard to picture given what we’ve seen, but maybe Greg Walker has ideas on how to fix him.

It should also be noted that the Giants have been scouting the White Sox recently, and could look to acquire Dye or others.

Rosenthal’s Latest Video

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Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports.  Let’s discuss.

  • Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade.  Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely.  He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him.  The contract remains on hold.  Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
  • Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal.  About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu.  The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman.  Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose.  That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached.  The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life.  I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here.  If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
  • Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers.  The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively.  No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out?  Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
  • Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle.  Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot.  The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery.  Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball.  Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him.  Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade.  At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return. 

Ozzie Shoots Down Trade Talk

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The always quotable Ozzie Guillen spoke out on recent trade rumors involving Jermaine Dye and Mark Buerhle [Chicago Sun-Times]:

”It’s never been talked about,” Guillen said. ”Maybe Kenny has it in his mind, but he’s never said one thing to me about it. I want to go all the way to the end with these guys, see what we can do with these guys.

”I’ll be honest with [the media], I’ll be honest with the fans, I’ll be honest with me. If we get to that point, I’ll be the first one to tell people, ’It’s going to be hard to compete.’ But as long as we feel we can win, we’re going to keep those guys.”

Guillen did emphasize that he believes there’s a certain amount of pressure to make a postseason run this season. Not because of payroll or job-security concerns, but because he doesn’t know how long the window will stay open.

”I’ll be completely honest with you and tell you I don’t know what kind of team we’re going to have next year,” Guillen said. ”We have a lot of guys that are free agents, we have a lot of guys in the minor-league system that are close to coming up.

You have to admire Guillen’s determination to win, however, there might come a point in July when general manager Kenny Williams does come to Guillen with talk of trades.  With both the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers so far out in front of the rest of the division, even making the Wild Card could prove to be difficult.

Getting some complimentary players via trade to go along with the prospects Guillen mentions might be a way for the White Sox to rebuild quickly after what is sure to be an offseason with a lot of roster turnover.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

White Sox Snag Craig Wilson

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the White Sox have signed 30 year-old 1B/LF Craig Wilson to a minor league contract.  It was a good move before the Pablo Ozuna injury, but now the need is even stronger.

Wilson, at the least, can probably help the Sox as a lefty-masher.  He’s at .290/.389/.527 against them in his career.  The White Sox aren’t known for their skills against southpaws; in fact, their .583 team OPS against them is the worst in the AL.  Compare that to the Blue Jays, who have an .851 OPS vs. lefties.  Oddly, the only member of the team who has hit lefties is the left-handed A.J. Pierzynski, who hasn’t fared well against them in his career.

If they can stomach his glove, the Sox should try Wilson in left field regularly.  They’ve gotten a .233/.327/.340 line from their left fielders, collectively.  Scott Podsednik may not necessarily provide any offensive lift to the club, but he could be out til July anyway.

First things first – Craig Wilson needs to remember how to hit.  He hasn’t had a decent month since June of 2006.  Since July 1st of last year, Wilson has hit .200/.263/.325 in 200 ABs for the Pirates, Yankees, and Braves.

Would Buehrle Play For Cubs?

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Every year, writers try to help ignite the Cubs-White Sox rivalry prior to the interleague series.  Back in ’05, Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle was asked if he’d ever sign with the Cubs:

"It depends.  It’s one of those things that if no team in baseball wants me and they do, I’ll go over there and sign. But I have my places that in the back of my mind — I’m not saying Wrigley — there are a couple of cities that if I was a free agent and they offered me, I wouldn’t go there. Even if it came down to however much money, I just wouldn’t feel comfortable going to those places to play."

He didn’t exactly seem open to donning a Cub uniform at that point.  It’s interesting to note that the article indicates that Buehrle might avoid New York, regardless of money.

Has anything changed, two years later?  Not really, but it seems that Buehrle leaves the door open an extra crack now that he may actually depart the White Sox:

"Anything’s possible.  Put it that way. I never say never because I said I’d never throw a no-hitter and that happened. Anything’s possible.  I’m not a big fan of going over to that place.  It would be different. Just with the whole Cubs-Sox rivalry, it’s just so hectic getting over there, tickets and all that stuff."

Still looks like a long shot for Buehrle to become the Cubs’ third southpaw in ’08.  Interestingly, it could become four if Donald Veal comes along.  Realistically, his hometown Cardinals remain the favorite for Buehrle.  If he wants to stay in the midwest, maybe the Reds would become an option. 

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