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NL Central Notes: Senzel, Gant, Cardinals, Cubs, Hoerner

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It’s going to be longer than originally expected before the Reds get Nick Senzel back on the field, as manager David Bell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon) that Senzel isn’t likely to be activated from the 60-day injured list as soon as he is immediately eligible.  “I would think towards the end of July before we would see him back here,” Bell said.  “That’s a bit of a guess, but just because there’s not an exact clear day right now. He’s definitely progressing the right way, but it’s just taken some time.”

Senzel was initially placed on the 10-day IL on May 21 and he underwent arthroscopic left knee surgery five days later, with Cincinnati shifting him to the 60-day IL in June when an 40-man roster spot was required.  The 60-day placement backdates to May 21, so Senzel would have been eligible to return just after the All-Star break.  While pushing Senzel’s return date back from mid-July to late July isn’t a huge delay on paper, it does represent even more lost time for a player who has unfortunately become an injured-list regular during his young career.  On the plus side, Senzel has already started some light baseball activities, such as pre-game throwing over the last few days.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals are shuffling their rotation, as manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Zachary Silver and other reporters that right-hander John Gant is moving to the bullpen.  Gant has a 3.76 ERA over 14 starts and 64 2/3 innings, though a 6.00 SIERA, a host of advanced metrics and a league-high 48 walks indicate that Gant has been very fortunate to post such a respectable ERA.  Though control has been an issue for Gant throughout his career, he has posted good results as a reliever in the past, so the Cards are hopeful he can help out a struggling bullpen.  As for the open rotation spot, it will likely be recently-signed veteran Wade LeBlanc moving from the pen to the starting five.
  • Three injured Cubs pitchers are slated to begin Triple-A rehab assignments this weekend, as The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro was among those to report that right-hander Dillon Maples (triceps strain) will begin his rehab today, while right-hander Trevor Williams (appendicitis) and left-hander Justin Steele (hamstring strain) will get underway on Sunday.  In addition, infielder David Bote (dislocated shoulder) might start a rehab assignment next week.
  • There isn’t yet any word on when Nico Hoerner might begin his own rehab work, though the Cubs infielder/outfielder continues to make progress a month after being placed on the 10-day IL with a left hamstring strain.  “It was a four-to-six-week injury, and four weeks was Tuesday [June 22]. So I think we’re at the right pace,” Hoerner told Russell Dorsey of The Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  Hoerner has been ramping up activity over the last week, taking part in base-running drills and facing live pitching from Williams during the righty’s recent bullpen session.  Hoerner was off to a very nice start prior to his injury, hitting .338/.405/.432 over his first 84 plate appearances.

Lucas Sims Out One Month Due To Elbow Sprain

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1:55pm: Reds skipper David Bell tells reporters that Sims is expected to miss around a month’s worth of games (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

11:45am: The Reds placed right-hander Lucas Sims on the 10-day injured list due to a right elbow sprain, per a club announcement. Outfielder Scott Heineman is up from Triple-A Louisville to take his spot on the active roster. Sims’ placement on the IL is retroactive to June 23.

Sims has had an up-and-down season but has been the Reds’ most oft-used option in save situations this year. He’s leading the club with seven saves and has also picked up four holds as one of the team’s most prominent high-leverage options.

The 27-year-old Sims got out to a miserable start in 2021, pitching to a 7.20 ERA through his first month of action. But over a span of 16 games from May 5 through June 21, Sims looked like the potentially dominant, breakout reliever he appeared to be last season, posting a 2.41 ERA with a 29-to-8 K/BB ratio in 16 2/3 frames of relief. Sims hit another roadblock in his most recent outing, however, serving up three runs without recording an out.

All told, Sims has gone from a 2.45 ERA in 25 2/3 frames in 2020 to a 5.02 mark through his first 28 2/3 innings in 2021. From a velocity standpoint, he’s actually added about a mile per hour to his heater, and he’s also bumped his strikeout rate from 33 percent to 35 percent. He’s seen a major spike in BABIP (.192 in 2020, .333 in 2021) while his ability to strand runners has taken a nosedive as well.

As is so frequently the case, the reality likely lies somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. Sims unquestionably benefited from that minuscule average on balls in play in 2020, but he’s also surely better than his 2021 ERA would indicate. He’s limiting hard contact quite efficiently, striking out batters in droves and keeping the ball in the yard. His sub-par command ought to lead to occasional hiccups, but taken in totality, his 2020-21 numbers — 3.81 ERA, 3.23 SIERA, 34.1 percent strikeout rate, 11.4 percent walk rate — have the makings of a solid late-inning option for the Reds.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on Sims’ absence, though obviously any type of elbow injury is a concern for a pitcher. Sprains, in particular, can be ominous. The hope is obviously that it’ll prove to be a minor issue, as the Reds can ill afford to lose a key arm from an already struggling bullpen. The Reds’ relief corps did just receive a boost with the return of its best reliever, Tejay Antone, but the Cincinnati ’pen has collectively pitched to an MLB-worst 5.70 ERA so far in 2021.

Reds Sign Mallex Smith, Release Dwight Smith Jr.

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The Reds have signed outfielder Mallex Smith to a minor league contract, notes Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Louisville.

Smith, 28, once looked like a potential impact center fielder. He hit .296/.367/.406 across 544 plate appearances with the Rays in 2018, a year in which he stole 40 bases. The Mariners acquired him that offseason as part of the deal that sent Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay, but Smith never followed up on that success. He did steal another 46 bags with Seattle in 2019, but the left-handed hitter slumped to a .227/.300/.335 line over 566 trips to the plate that year. Smith got off to an even worse start in 2020 and was ultimately outrighted off the Mariners roster.

After electing minor league free agency over the offseason, Smith signed a non-roster deal with the Mets. He didn’t appear in a game with the New York organization and was released last month, though. He’ll now look to work his way back in Cincinnati.

Mallex Smith will replace fellow former big league outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. on the Bats roster. Dwight Smith, who appeared in the majors with the Blue Jays and Orioles from 2017-20, has been released from his own minor league deal with the Reds, per Hilburn-Trenkle. The 28-year-old hit just .220/.327/.283 over 147 plate appearances with Louisville.

Injury Notes: Antone, Gray, Engel, Buxton

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The Reds announced Tuesday morning that they’ve reinstated right-hander Tejay Antone from the injured list and optioned Scott Heineman to Triple-A Louisville to open a roster spot. Antone ultimately missed only 11 days due to a bout of forearm inflammation and will be returning at a perfect time; Cincinnati used every reliever on the roster during last night’s 12-inning marathon against after starter Tyler Mahle lasted just four innings. The 27-year-old Antone has been one of baseball’s best relievers in 2021, pitching to a minuscule 1.41 ERA with a lofty 34.5 percent strikeout percentage against a 9.5 percent walk rate. He’s worked multiple innings with regularity, though it remains to be seen whether the club will drop him right back into a multi-inning stint after an injury layoff — even in spite of the taxed bullpen.

Cincinnati right-hander Sonny Gray could also be closing in on a return, as C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports Gray will make a rehab start with the Reds’ top minor league affiliate Thursday. The 31-year-old hit the injured list a couple weeks ago due to a groin strain, and the team was hopeful at the time that he’d only need to miss a pair of starts. It may end up being a bit longer, but if all goes well with Gray’s rehab outing, he’d be looking at only about a three-week absence from the rotation. The veteran righty has a 3.42 ERA and a 30.1 percent strikeout rate in 50 innings for the Reds this season.

A couple more injury scenarios of note around the league…

  • The White Sox announced Tuesday that outfielder Adam Engel is headed to the 10-day injured list due to a strain of his right hamstring. Outfielder Luis Gonzalez is up from Triple-A Charlotte in his place. It’s the second IL stint of the season for Engel, who opened the year on the shelf with this same injury and missed almost two months of action. Engel joins fellow outfielder Adam Eaton, who is also dealing with a right hamstring strain, on the injured list, further depleting a White Sox outfield that is also without stars Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. The 29-year-old Engel batted .241/.313/.552 in just 32 plate appearances between IL stints. The club didn’t place a timetable on his return, although this new IL stint was backdated to June 20.
  • The Twins are still determining whether Byron Buxton’s fractured left hand will require surgery, manager Rocco Baldelli said prior to today’s game (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Uncertainty as to whether the injury will require surgical repair likely contributes to the vague response Baldelli have when initially prompted for a timetable on the injury to Buxton, who was hit on the left hand by a Tyler Mahle heater last night and found to have a boxer’s fracture. For now, the team is still “looking into the best approaches for recovery,” per Baldelli. It’s common for players to get opinions from multiple doctors and/or specialists when a potential surgery of any kind is on the table.

Reds Move Mike Moustakas To 60-Day IL, Select Josh Osich

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The Reds moved infielder Mike Moustakas to the 60-day injured list today, opening up a 40-man roster spot so the team could select the contract of left-hander Josh Osich.  Right-hander Ashton Goudeau was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Osich on the active roster.

Moustakas has already been out of action since May 19 due to a right heel contusion, and he had only just began a minor league rehab assignment earlier this week when he re-aggravated the injury.  Now it seems as though Moustakas is essentially back at square one, and the Reds won’t have the slugger back in the lineup until after the All-Star break.

To their credit, the Reds have still been one of the better-hitting teams in baseball even without Moustakas available for much of the season, and with Moustakas off to rather an average start (.241/.337/.437) over his first 102 plate appearances.  But naturally, the Reds would’ve wanted Moustakas back as soon as possible to bolster a left side of the infield that hasn’t gotten much offense from Eugenio Suarez or Kyle Farmer.  Moustakas began the year as Cincinnati’s regular third baseman with Suarez at shortstop, but the Moose shifted across the diamond to play first base when Joey Votto was on the injured list.

Osich signed a minor league contract with the Reds in December.  Best known for his four years in the Giants’ bullpen from 2015-18, Osich has since been a member of five different organizations, and he posted a 5.02 ERA over 86 innings with the White Sox, Red Sox, and Cubs over the last two seasons.  Osich will add more left-handed depth to Cincinnati’s bullpen, and provide a fresh arm after the Reds used five pitchers in yesterday’s 8-2 loss to the Padres.  Goudeau was one of those pitchers, allowing two runs on three walks and four hits over his two innings of work.

Mike Moustakas Re-Aggravates Heel Injury

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Reds infielder Mike Moustakas has been on the injured list since May 19 due to a right heel contusion, and his recovery has now hit a setback.  Manager David Bell told reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale) that Moustakas re-aggravated his initial injury and is back wearing a walking boot.

It’s a tough turn of events for Moustakas, who just began a minor league rehab assignment this week and was seemingly closing in on a return to the field.  Bell did note that Moustakas’s heel issue didn’t involve a tear in his plantar fasciitis, though more will be known about Moustakas’ status (such as a possible recovery timeline) when he is re-evaluated next week.

Due to both this injury and a minimal 10-day IL stint due to illness in April, The Moose has only played in 28 games this season.  Moustakas has hit .241/.337/.437 over 102 plate appearances in his second season with the Reds, this year playing only at third base and first base after Cincinnati experimented with him as an everyday second baseman in 2020.  While Moustakas has been an above-average hitter (102 OPS+, 110 wRC+) thus far, his hard-contact numbers are down and his .335 wOBA is significantly higher than his .296 wOBA, though it is hard to draw any real conclusion over a sample size of only 102 PA.

The Reds are on a six-game winning streak, bringing their record to 35-31 and within two games of the NL Central lead.  A healthy Moustakas would be a nice boost to a team that is planning to contend for another postseason berth, and Moustakas’ return would likely see Eugenio Suarez moved from third base back to shortstop.  Suarez and regular shortstop Kyle Farmer have been the two weakest links in a Reds lineup that is among the league’s best in several batting categories.

Central Notes: Twins, Singer, Moustakas, Alzolay

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The Twins have been dealt a series of injuries this season, and another pair of notable players departed last night’s game against the Mariners early. Third baseman Josh Donaldson left for precautionary reasons in the second inning with tightness in his right calf. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons came out shortly thereafter with left ankle tightness (relayed by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). There’s no indication either player is dealing with anything serious, but each of Donaldson and Simmons landed on the injured list because of issues with those respective areas last season.

Donaldson missed nearly a month with a right calf strain, while Simmons missed a similar amount of time with a sprained left ankle. Given that history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins play things cautiously with their left side infielders. In better news, outfielder Max Kepler, who has been on a rehab assignment at Triple-A St. Paul, could join the big league club by this weekend, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press).

Elsewhere in the Central divisions:

  • Royals right-hander Brady Singer was removed from yesterday’s start after three innings as a precautionary measure after he experienced right posterior shoulder tightness, the team announced. It’s not clear if he’s in jeopardy of missing his next start. The 24-year-old has only managed a 4.76 ERA in 68 innings this season, but Singer’s generally average strikeout and walk numbers (23.3% and 8.2%, respectively) and strong 50.5% groundball rate suggest he’s been a bit unlucky to allow so many runs.
  • Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that infielder Mike Moustakas has had his minor league rehab assignment halted after experiencing some soreness. It doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern, but Moustakas’ return looks likely to be delayed a few extra days. The Reds have been without the 32-year-old for just under a month due to a right heel contusion. Before the injury, Moustakas got off to a pretty good start, hitting .241/.337/.437 with four homers over 104 plate appearances.
  • The Cubs have been without starter Adbert Alzolay for the past week-plus due to a blister issue. The 26-year-old tells Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago he expects to return at some point during the Cubs upcoming homestand, which runs from June 18-22. Chicago turned to Robert Stock in Alzolay’s place yesterday, but he allowed five runs and issued six walks in just four innings against the Mets. Alzolay has a solid 4.06 ERA/3.63 SIERA in eleven starts this season.

The Reds Could Be One Of The Deadline’s Most Interesting Teams

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We’re a little more than six weeks away from the trade deadline, and it appears July is going to be a month of difficult decisions for the Reds front office. Cincinnati sits at 32-31, third place in the NL Central. They’re slightly ahead of the Cardinals and five games back of the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the division lead. With the Giants surprisingly leading the star-studded Dodgers and Padres out west, the two wild card spots will be hard to come by in the National League.

By most measures, the Reds look like an average team. Their record is marginally above .500, while their -10 run differential is eighteenth among the league’s thirty clubs. FanGraphs’ rest of season projections have the Reds playing at an 80-82 pace; when coupled with their current record, they’d land right at 81-81 if they perform at that projected level from here on out.

Finishing .500 wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs, but the Reds also aren’t that far away from the postseason picture. The Cubs and Brewers have played well to this point but each has some obvious deficiencies on the roster (starting pitching for Chicago, the bottom of the lineup in Milwaukee). It doesn’t seem either team will run away with the division. Indeed, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 14.6% chance of making it to the postseason- unlikely, but not out of the question.

It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.

Cincinnati suffered through six consecutive losing seasons from 2014-19. The organization made a concerted effort to end that run late in the 2019 season, acquiring Trevor Bauer with an eye towards 2020 and signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos the following offseason. They did snap the streak of below-average records in last year’s shortened season, but it took a playoff expansion for them to get into the postseason, where they were swept by the Braves without scoring a run. (That marked the 25th consecutive season since the Reds last won a playoff series, the longest active draught in MLB).

They’ve already lost to Bauer to free agency, and Castellanos could soon depart himself. The 29-year-old is having a fantastic season, sitting on a .361/.416/.635 line with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances. Given that level of performance, it’d take a massive collapse or injury for him not to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM in guarantees on his contract. Castellanos opting out wouldn’t preclude the Reds from re-signing him, of course, but it’s not clear ownership would be willing to sign off on another significant outlay.

The Reds slashed payroll from $147MM in 2020 (prior to prorating) to $122MM this season on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. Next year, they’ll still be on the hook for substantial salaries to Joey Votto ($25MM), Moustakas ($16MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.286MM) and Sonny Gray ($10.867MM), per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before accounting for arbitration raises for a group including Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo. Unless ownership is willing to again increase spending on player payroll, it could be tough to commit to a raise for Castellanos.

If the Reds aren’t going to re-sign Castellanos, there’s a case they should field offers on him this summer. As the sport’s third-best qualified hitter (behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Winker), he’d draw no shortage of interest. Castellanos would almost certainly command a prospect return greater in value than the compensatory draft pick the Reds would receive if they allowed him to depart as a free agent after making a qualifying offer. Trading away one of the game’s top bats would be a tough sell to a fan base that has seen very little recent success, though, particularly if the Reds remain only a handful of games back in the division race.

Maybe the team’s performance will make the Reds direction obvious by July 30. If they continue to play at the level they have been, however, their front office will have some very difficult decisions to make.

Reds Reinstate Aristides Aquino From Injured List

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The Reds announced they’ve activated outfielder Aristides Aquino from the 60-day injured list. Fellow outfielder Mark Payton was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to create active roster space. To open a 40-man roster spot for Aquino, utilityman Nick Senzel was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day IL.

Aquino fractured the hamate bone in his left hand in mid-April. The break required a surgical repair, and the 27-year-old ultimately wound up missing two months. Prior to the injury, Aquino had served as something of a designated pinch-hitter, coming off the bench in all ten of his appearances. With Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos having incredible seasons in the corner outfield, Aquino figures to assume that role once again.

The Reds are in a bit of a bind when it comes to Aquino. He burst onto the MLB scene in 2019, hitting a staggering 14 home runs in 115 plate appearances that August. Aquino really struggled over that season’s final month, though, and he didn’t perform at the start of 2020 either. Ultimately, he spent a good portion of last year at the alternate training site. He’s not a natural fit in center field, and with Winker, Castellanos and Joey Votto ahead of him on the depth chart at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there’s not been much of an opportunity for manager David Bell to give Aquino everyday run.

Aquino is out of minor league option years, meaning the Reds can’t send him to Louisville without designating him for assignment. Given the promise he flashed as a rookie, Cincinnati hasn’t wanted to run the risk of losing him for little or no return on waivers or via a small trade. That dilemma will likely keep him on the Reds bench for now.

Senzel was placed on the injured list on May 21, retroactive to May 19. The transfer rules him out for 60 days from the time of his original IL placement- not today- so he won’t be eligible to return to the majors until mid-July. The 25-year-old, who has dealt with a barrage of health problems throughout his professional career, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee shortly after going on the IL.

The procedure originally came with a four-to-six week rest period. There’s no indication that’s meaningfully changed. He’ll surely need to go on a minor league rehab assignment before getting back to the big leagues. If he’d been tracking towards the latter end of his projected timeline anyhow, there’s little harm for the Reds in moving him to the 60-day IL and giving him an extra few days to rehab, particularly considering his injury history.

NL Roster Moves: Marlins, Rogers, Reds, Santillan, Phillies, Haseley, De Los Santos

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Marlins’ breakout starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the injured list without an injury designation, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). It’s safe to assume the move relates to COVID-19 in some form or fashion, though speculatively speaking, it could be that Rogers is dealing with side effects from the vaccine. McPherson notes that the injured list stint is not expected to be long. That’s obviously welcome news for the Marlins, given Rogers performance in 13 starts this season. The 23-year-old rookie has logged 75 2/3 stellar innings with a 2.02 ERA/2.56 FIP.

In the meantime, Preston Guilmet had his contract selected, and he has been added to the active roster. The 33-year-old has not appeared in the Majors since 2018. He owns a 9.27 career ERA in 33 innings dating back to his 2013 debut with the Indians. Guilmet has also seen game action with the Orioles, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, and Blue Jays. Elsewhere in the National League…

  • The Reds have recalled reliever Tony Santillan from Triple-A Louisville this morning, per the team. Santillan, 24, will make his Major League debut if he gets in a game. Fangraphs ranked him as the Reds’ 14th-ranked prospect at the start of this season, while Baseball America has him as high as ninth, noting some late-game potential for Santillan down the line.
  • The Phillies recalled Enyel De Los Santos from Triple-A, optioning catcher Rafael Marcan to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, per the team. Outfielder Adam Haseley was also reinstated from the restricted list and optioned to Triple-A.
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