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More Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.

  • As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
  • One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
  • The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”

Latest On Aroldis Chapman

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1:11pm: The Red Sox are indeed doing background work on Chapman, tweets Rosenthal, although that’s more a sign of genuine interest than proximity to a trade’s completion.

12:17pm: The Red Sox are being aggressive on many fronts, one of which is believed to be Chapman, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

11:13am: Aroldis Chapman has seen his name circulate in trade rumors for the past year and is widely known to be on the block once again, and Peter Gammons of MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com now reports that four people have insisted to him this morning that Chapman will be traded by the end of the coming weekend (Twitter link).

Chapman most prominently drew interest from the Astros, Yankees and Diamondbacks prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and he’s been speculatively connected to the Yankees, Red Sox and others this past week over the course of the GM Meetings. The Nationals and Tigers are also known to be seeking high-end bullpen help, and the Blue Jays have shown interest in the past as well. Gammons doesn’t specify which clubs are in the mix for Chapman at this time, but Cincinnati president of baseball ops Walt Jocketty more or less confirmed this week that he’s more or less open for business and will listen to talks on virtually any player on his club.

Chapman, with one year of club control remaining, is a natural trade chip for the rebuilding Reds. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the left-hander to earn a steep $12.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and while that’s top-of-the-market value for a relief arm, Chapman has undoubtedly proven himself worthy of that much, if not more. The 27-year-old struck out more than 15 hitters per nine innings for the fourth consecutive season in 2015 while averaging 99.5 mph on his fastball. Over the course of the four seasons in question, Chapman has a 1.90 ERA and has saved 33 or more games per season.

Central Notes: Hicks/Murphy, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Oh, Chapman

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In an ESPN Insider analysis of today’s Twins/Yankees swap of center fielder Aaron Hicks and catcher John Ryan Murphy, Keith Law opines that both sides did quite well. While the Twins might have traded a bit more upside in exchange for stability, both clubs came away with a player who fit their current roster better than the piece they traded, says Law. Hicks has the potential to be an elite defender and is an immediate upgrade for the Yankees in a regular role solely based on his glove, while Murphy’s defense has steadily improved. Law feels that Murphy projects as an everyday catcher, though not a star-caliber one with tremendous offensive upside.

A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Asked about the possibility of a contract extension for Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, agent Scott Boras told reporters, including ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers: “We’re going to be talking about that as the offseason unfolds, about Jake. I would say it’s fair to say the Cubs are pleased with Jake. And I’m sure Jake is happy playing there so we have to see where it goes.” Boras went on to state that Cubs’ ownership is in a new phase, having entered a “championship phase” after spending years in a rebuilding phase. “How owners react to that and what they do is a completely different thought process,” said Boras.
  • The Cubs still like Jeff Samardzija and aren’t ruling out a return for the right-hander, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote today. The Cubs, at one point, offered Samardzija $80-85MM on a contract extension, and Heyman notes that a similar sum may be a ballpark offer for what he can expect on the free-agent market.
  • The rebuilding Brewers won’t be players for top-of-the-market free agents, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, but new GM David Stearns could still sign some free agents to fill the club’s voids in center field and at third base. Stearns said that Domingo Santana, who played some center field in 2015, is best-suited for a corner outfield spot, but he’s not against using Santana in center if needed. If no external center field option is acquired, Santana will man the position in 2016. At third base, Stearns spoke of a need to pursue some external options given the lack of depth the Brewers currently have. “There’s a chance [internal options] could take a step up in production, and we’re certainly also going to look for external options,” said Stearns.
  • The Indians are interested in Korean right-hander Seung-hwan Oh, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Cleveland bid “aggressively” on first baseman Byung-ho Park but fell short of the division-rival Twins’ bid. However, Oh won’t be subject to the posting system given his professional service time in Korea, and Oh would present a much-needed late-inning option for manager Terry Francona to put alongside Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. Oh, nicknamed “the Final Boss” and “Stone Buddha” in Korea, is said to be traveling to the U.S. to meet with MLB clubs this week.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the team must consider playing on the free agent market in a way he typically avoids. As Goold notes, recent Cardinals’ free-agent plays for pitchers have either been short-term deals or re-signings of pitchers the team already knows (e.g. Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook). However, the loss of Lance Lynn and the potential departure of Lackey on a two- or three-year deal with another club could lead to atypical activity for the Cardinals. Mozeliak is bullish on a healthy return for Carlos Martinez, but the team still needs further certainty in the rotation. Said Mozeliak: “The opportunity to add is something that we have to consider. … We’ll see. I’d like to let the market develop before I weigh in on that.”
  • Aroldis Chapman will probably be the first domino to fall in the Reds’ impending fire sale, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Reds know that Chapman, a free agent after the season, will earn about $13MM via arbitration (MLBTR projects him at $12.9MM), and they need to maximize the return they can get on him by dealing him this offseason so that an acquiring team can make a qualifying offer following the 2016 campaign.

Reds, D-Backs Have Discussed Swapping Phillips, Hill

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The Diamondbacks and Reds have discussed the framework of a trade that would send second baseman Brandon Phillips from Cincinnati to Arizona in exchange for fellow infielder Aaron Hill, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The talks aren’t said to have reached a serious stage at this time, he adds, and other pieces might well be required to create a match.

The motivation for each team in the swap seems relatively clear. With the Reds embarking on a rebuilding phase, it makes sense that the team would have interest in shedding the remaining two years and $27MM on Phillips’ contract. However, given that Phillips has been more good than great over the past couple of seasons — .282/.318/.385 with 20 homers, 25 steals — he probably doesn’t come with loads of trade value. His glove still grades out as a plus, though, and he had a much better baserunning season in 2015, both of which are points in Cincinnati’s favor in trade talks.

For the Diamondbacks, the remaining one year and $12MM on Hill’s contract is likely perceived as a sunk cost. Hill was brilliant in Arizona from 2011-13, but over the past two seasons, the veteran has batted a combined .238/.290/.359. Swapping out Hill for a comparable annual salary over a longer term would give Arizona an improved roster in 2016 and 2017, whereas the Reds would be shedding about $15MM in total salary and opening a roster spot for the 2017 season. Even in 2016, a trade of Phillips could open second base for intriguing young infielder Eugenio Suarez, who provided more than enough offense in 2015 to earn an audition as a regular player. However, with Zack Cozart coming back at shortstop in 2016, Suarez will need to shift to a new position.

There are, of course, some road blocks to consider. Firstly, the D-Backs would be taking on a good bit of salary in the deal. While I noted that they have the long-term flexibility to do so when previewing their offseason, Rosenthal says that the $14MM owed to Phillips in 2017 is at least somewhat of an obstacle in talks. Also, it has to be determined whether Phillips would even approve a trade. The 34-year-old has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, with the five or more most recent years coming on the same team) thereby granting him the power to veto any trades. It’s now known whether Phillips would waive his no-trade rights, though the concept of playing on a team that is widely known to be rebuilding isn’t necessarily appealing to an aging veteran with playoff aspirations.

Rosenthal notes that the talks could eventually expand to include some form of financial compensation or exchange of additional players to balance out the swap. It’s worth noting, then, that former D-Backs GM Kevin Towers is a special assistant in the Reds’ front office, so he has an expansive knowledge of the players in Arizona’s system.

While there’s nothing to suggest that a trade of this nature is close, making the move could allow the D-Backs more flexibility to include a young infielder such as Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed, Jake Lamb or Brandon Drury in a trade for starting pitching help or a closer — both of which have been said to be priorities for Arizona GM Dave Stewart this offseason.

Reds Willing To Listen On All Players

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The Reds are willing to listen to trade offers for virtually any player on their roster, according to a pair of reports from C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. While there was some hesitation to embark on a complete fire sale prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, sources tell Rosenthal that owner Bob Castellini is now on board with the idea that a more dramatic retooling of the roster is needed.

“I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told Rosecrans. “There’s certainly guys who would be much more difficult to move, but we have to be open minded to whatever we can do to improve the club for the long term.” Jocketty said the Reds have made it “pretty explicit” to other teams that they’re open for trades.

Jocketty told the pair of reporters that at entering the season and even this summer, the Reds “wanted to be somewhat protective of our club,” but the year didn’t pan out as hoped. Asked by Rosenthal if he was ready to trade Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce after backing down on trade scenarios involving that pair prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, Jocketty responded, “I would say probably.”

The availability of Chapman and Bruce has been widely expected, but Rosenthal further tweets that the Reds will even be open-minded on third baseman and reigning Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier, who is under control for two more seasons.

Frazier, 30 in February, had a monstrous first half (.284/.337/.585, 25 homers) but slumped badly following the All-Star break (.220/.274/.390, 10 homers). His cumulative season batting line was still strong, and when paired with his plus defense at third base it led to a strong overall year worth about four wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. But, the second half was a nonetheless disappointing outcome for Frazier, who looked to be on the verge of a superstar-caliber breakout.

Frazier will earn $7.5MM in 2016 — the second season of a two-year contract signed to buy out his first two seasons of arbitration. The former supplemental first-round pick can’t become a free agent until after the 2017 season, so any club interested in trading for him would be picking up two years of club control at a highly reasonable rate.

Chapman is controlled for the 2016 season only, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $12.9MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process. Bruce is owed $12.5MM in 2016 and has a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2017 season.

Those three players represent the Reds’ most logical impact trade chips, as the remaining $199MM on Joey Votto’s contract is daunting even after his MVP-caliber rebound season in 2015. Votto’s contract also comes with a full no-trade clause, further complicating the thought of trading him. Brandon Phillips would make a logical trade candidate, as he, too, enjoyed a nice rebound season, making the remaining two years and $27MM on his contract look fairly reasonable. However, Phillips has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service time, including five straight with his current team), thus affording him full trade veto power as well.

While Jocketty, of course, won’t tip his hand as to what he’d seek in return for pieces such as Chapman, Bruce and Frazier, it seems that the idea in Cincinnati is to aim for a quick turnaround as opposed to a lengthy Astros/Cubs-style rebuild. Said Jocketty to Rosecrans and Rosenthal: “…I think we really started at the deadline knowing that ’16 was going to be a transition year and ’17 and ’18 will be the timeframe we think will be able to be stronger and more competitive.”

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

NL East Notes: Minor, Braves, Ozuna, Mets, Speier

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The Braves are now uncertain whether or not they’ll tender lefty Mike Minor a contract, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Signs had pointed to the team offering arbitration, with Minor likely to earn at or near the $5.6MM level that he set by winning his arbitration case with the team last year. But the 27-year-old has reportedly suffered a setback in his efforts to return from labrum surgery, and has yet to make it back onto a mound. “We think it could happen prior to the tender date,” said GM John Coppolella. “We want to see something, whether it’s off the mound or … we need to see something. We can’t just blindly tender him a contract and put the team at risk. Because every single dollar counts for us.”

  • The Braves suddenly find themselves with a surplus of outfielders after largely committing to shifting Hector Olivera to left field, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. If Atlanta finds it hard to shed any of the salary owed to Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn, says Bowman, the team may look closer at a trade of Cameron Maybin. But the club’s top executives continue to say they don’t feel pressure to trade Maybin, even after the Olivera move, as O’Brien tweets.
  • The Marlins are indeed interested in trading outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but not at anything less than his market value, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. Of course, as Frisaro notes, the team may find it necessary to trade him if it hopes to accomplish its apparent  goal of adding a quality, controllable pitcher.
  • Mets assistant GM John Ricco says that the club is receiving strong interest in its pitching, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That’s not surprising, given the depth and quality of arms present in the organization.
  • Ricco also said that the Mets could look to add an offensive player that is capable of filling in around the diamond, rather than seeking a regular at one spot, Puma tweets. Naturally, that statement calls to mind the possibility of signing Ben Zobrist, but there are other players — including, arguably, Daniel Murphy — who could function in a similar capacity.
  • It may be time for Mets third baseman David Wright to begin a transition across the diamond, Mark Simon of ESPNNewYork.com writes. The veteran and team leader made a thrilling comeback from serious back issues, but showed real difficulty throwing the ball across the diamond, and Rubin argues that now is the time to begin spelling him at the hot corner and working him in at first base.
  • The Nationals are set to add Chris Speier to their coaching staff, either as the third base or bench coach, according to a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. The 19-year MLB veteran served as the bench coach under new Nats skipper Dusty Baker when he was with the Reds. Speier has continued on with Cincinnati as a special assistant to GM Walt Jocketty since Baker departed.

AL Central Notes: Soria, Indians, Cueto, Glass

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The Tigers have contacted Joakim Soria’s agent about a possible return to Detroit, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports, though they’ll be one of several teams in the mix for his services.  The reliever-needy Tigers have a distinct need for a solid bullpen arm, but Aroldis Chapman probably isn’t a fit since Detroit aren’t keen on dealing from their just-rebuild farm system to match the Reds’ high asking price for the ace closer.  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (via Twitter) that he will look into trading a starting pitcher in order to improve elsewhere, though it’s not necessarily something that he’d like to do.  The Tribe received a lot of interest in their young starters last summer; Carlos Carrasco drew particular attention and Cleveland in fact almost dealt him to the Blue Jays.
  • While the Indians may not be able to spend big on free agents, what they can offer is playing time at third, first or in the outfield, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider-only link).  This might be significant in helping the Tribe land a lower-tier free agent veteran; Olney suggests the likes of Juan Uribe, Justin Morneau, Mike Napoli and Will Venable as possible fits.
  • Johnny Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, also Duquette and Bowden (Twitter links) to discuss his client’s free agency.  Dixon expressed confidence that teams will see that Cueto his healthy after viewing his medicals, and if Cueto had been hurt, he wouldn’t have been able to deliver such strong results for the Royals in two of his postseason outings.
  • Royals owner David Glass deserves credit for standing behind GM Dayton Moore during tough times, Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com writes.  Moore’s tenure is the fourth longest among current general managers behind Brian Sabean of the Giants (now executive VP of baseball operations), Brian Cashman of the Yankees, and Jon Daniels of the Rangers.  Those executives, however, enjoyed either quick success or quicker returns on rebuilds than Moore, as the Royals didn’t even post a winning record until Moore’s seventh full season running the team.
  • Joe Mauer will be 36 when his current contract expires in three years, but the Twins first baseman tells Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hasn’t given any thought about retirement at that time, only that he “probably” wants to play “as long as I can.”

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

Reds Promote Dick Williams To GM; Jocketty To Serve As President Of Baseball Ops

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4:00pm: Williams signed a three-year deal to serve as GM, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Jocketty will remain with the Reds for two years beyond the 2016 season in an advisory capacity (Twitter link).

1:55pm: The Reds have announced that Dick Williams has been promoted to the general managerial role. Prior GM Walt Jocketty will remain with the club as its president of baseball operations.

Williams, not to be confused with the long-time big league ballplayer of the same name, had served previously as the organization’s assistant GM. In other words, it appears that this move largely tracks other recent promotional trends around the game.

It’s not always easy to determine whether and when title changes come with shifts in job responsibilities, of course, and it remains to be seen what the case will be in Cincinnati. Per the team’s announcement, though, it does appear that the 44-year-old Williams will take on more day-to-day duties even as Jocketty “continue[s] to oversee the department.”

Jocketty indicated in his comments that there would be a tangible change in the organization’s structure. “As is the case with any business,” he said, “it’s critical to have a succession plan in place. Dick has been here for 10 years, he’s learned the business, and we are confident he is ready to take on the GM responsibilities.“

But that handoff won’t be dramatic, at least at first, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports in a series of tweets (links: 1; 2; 3; 4). Jocketty said that he organization has been “grooming” Williams for the role for some time, so much so that it was part of the discussion when he reached an extension with the team a few seasons back. Jocketty said he’ll only be taking and making phone calls for another year and will shift to an advisory role next year.

Notably, Williams is not the only person by that surname on the upper reaches of the Cincinnati front office chart. As this article from the passing of former club owner William J. Williams Sr. indicates, the new GM is intimately related with the organization’s key family.

He’ll be tasked with continuing to help guide the organization through a tough stretch on the ballfield. The Reds have already begun cashing in veteran assets, though the focus has been on moving pending free agents. This winter will pose a difficult test, with opportunities and risks that are magnified by the club’s major commitments (e.g., Joey Votto, Homer Bailey) and lower-middle-class spending capacity.

Reds Decline Options Over Badenhop, Schumaker; Outright LeCure

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The Reds have made a series of moves to shape the club’s roster on the first day of the offseason, as the club announced. Cincinnati will decline its club options over righty Burke Badenhop and utilityman Skip Schumaker and has outrighted right-hander Sam LeCure.

Badenhop, 32, has long been a sturdy reliever. He joined the club on a one-year deal with an option that seemed likely to be exercised — it contained a $1.5MM buyout and $4MM value — but began and ended his season with rough stretches (at least in the earned run department). The first and last impressions didn’t help, but Badenhop also put up a 3.93 ERA that landed well above his recent years’ marks and did not impress ERA estimators along the way. Still, he ought to draw plenty of interest from teams looking for solid innings — especially if they are drawn to groundball producers.

The 35-year-old Schumaker had a two-year guarantee, but contributed just a .238/.297/.322 batting line over his 539 plate appearances over the last two years. That made it rather an easy decision to buy out his $2.5MM option for $500K. While Schumaker is valued for his defensive versatility, he’s rated well below replacement level for each of the past three seasons.

As for LeCure, who’s 31 years of age, 2015 was a major disappointment despite the fact that he carried a 3.15 ERA. That’s because he started the year in the minors and ultimately threw only twenty MLB frames. LeCure has continued to see his strikeout and swinging strike rates fall along with his velocity in recent seasons.

All told, it’s not exactly surprising to see Cincinnati parting with these kinds of veteran players, though it wouldn’t have cost much to retain them. The organization now has more youthful options in both the infield and the bullpen after its trade activity over the last year or so.

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