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Reds Outright Seven Players

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Here are the day’s outright assignments:

  • The Reds have announced that seven players were outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster (h/t to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, on Twitter). On the chopping block were pitchers Nate Adcock, Collin Balester, David Holmberg, and Josh Smith, outfielders Brennan Boesch and Jason Bourgeois, and infielder/outfielder Kris Negron. Adcock, Balester, Boesch, and Bourgeois have all seen reasonably frequent MLB action but have bounced around quite a bit in recent years. Negron has appeared in each of the last three seasons in Cincinnati, compiling a .220/.296/.353 batting line over 270 plate appearances. Holmberg was acquired as part of the pre-2014, three-team deal that sent Heath Bell (from the Diamondbacks) and Ryan Hanigan to the Rays. He’s functioned as a depth starter, walking nearly as many batters as he’s retired via strikeout over his 58 1/3 MLB innings with Cincinnati. Smith made his MLB debut last year, allowing 25 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings of work, but found himself squeezed out by Cincinnati’s recent influx of young, upper-level pitches.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Park, Chapman

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
  • While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Cherington, Schwarber

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The Brewers have told other teams that they’re open to hearing offers for anyone on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column.  As Olney notes, this could make Jonathan Lucroy a potential trade candidate this winter, though obviously, “only in the right deal.”  Lucroy’s name was mentioned in several trade rumors last summer since Milwaukee fell out of the pennant race so soon, though the Crew reportedly had no interest in dealing the catcher.  New GM David Stearns could have a different perspective, however.  In his recent Brewers Offseason Outlook piece, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth speculated about a possibly Lucroy trade, and also suggested that the club might wait for a midseason deal to allow Lucroy to rebuild some value after an injury-plagued and subpar 2015 campaign.

Here’s some more from the NL Central…

  • Also from Olney’s post, he reports that the Pirates are in “informal discussions” with Ben Cherington about a possible front office job.  Since stepping down as Boston’s general manager last summer, Cherington reportedly declined opportunities to interview for both the Mariners and Phillies GM jobs out of a desire to take some time away from the game.  It’s fair to speculate that a position working under his friend Neal Huntington could be more attractive to Cherington than a return to the full-time grind of a GM position.
  • Could the Cubs shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason?  Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh explores the possibility, noting that the defensively-challenged Schwarber would be a good fit as an American League DH.  The Rays and Indians are two clubs with a hole at DH and the young arms to offer the Cubs, who are openly looking to add pitching.  While scouts are mixed at best about Schwarber’s ability to play catcher or left field over the long term, a trade may be unlikely given Schwarber’s already-impressive hitting potential.  “He’s not attainable now,” one AL scout tells Lindbergh.  “He still has a chance to hit .285 with 40 bombs. They’d be insane to trade that.”  I tend to agree with the AL scout; Chicago would need a massive return to even consider moving Schwarber’s bat.
  • Jason McLeod, Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting, spoke to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about a couple of Cardinals players who were well-liked by the Cubs and Red Sox when McLeod was running the drafts for those clubs in 2012 and 2008, respectively.  “A lot of the teams that passed up on Michael Wacha, us included, probably kicked themselves,” McLeod said.  St. Louis took Wacha with the 19th overall pick of the first round, while the Cubs (picking sixth) instead chose Albert Almora, who is a well-regarded 21-year-old prospect but has yet to play beyond the Double-A level.  For Boston in 2008, Lance Lynn was “a guy we liked quite a bit; he was high up on our board.”  The Sox instead took Casey Kelly with the 30th overall pick, leaving Lynn to be drafted by the Cards 39th overall.
  • Also from Laurila’s piece, he cites the Reds’ trade of Mat Latos to the Marlins for Anthony DeSclafani (and minor league Chad Wallach) as perhaps “the best under-the-radar trade of last offseason.”  DeSclafani posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.75 K/BB rate and 7.4 K/9 over 184 2/3 innings in his rookie season, and looks to have solidly earned himself a spot in Cincinnati rotation.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Cubs, Allison

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson traded for Yoenis Cespedes because he believed the club needed another hitter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Alderson originally focused on Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce because they came with additional club control. However, the Gomez deal was nixed after the Mets reviewed his physical, and the Reds pulled Bruce off the trade block on July 31. Alderson preferred Justin Upton of the Padres, but they refused to back down from demands for pitcher Michael Fulmer, shortstop Amed Rosario, and others. While Alderson still preferred a higher OBP hitter, Cespedes had the best acquisition cost. Per Alderson, if the Mets didn’t acquire a top bat, “people will point to the fact that we were not all in.”

  • The Cubs will be a trendy pick to win the National League next season, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, Theo Epstein and crew have a difficult road ahead of them. Within their own division, they’ll have to compete with the always successful Cardinals and recently excellent Pirates. The Mets formidable pitching staff will return next year, the Giants have a way of appearing every even year, and the Dodgers spend the most money in baseball. Unexpected opponents could also jump to the forefront. As Epstein admits, “We have to put ourselves in a position where we have a chance to be great. So we can win the division and not have to go through the coin flip of being in the wild-card game. I’m not saying you can always get there. Some things are beyond your control.” To be great, the club probably needs to add an ace. A veteran to help stabilize the young lineup could also be useful.
  • The Mariners have promoted Tom Allison to head of both professional and amateur scouting, tweets John Manuel of Baseball America. Allison had previously served as Seattle’s head of pro scouting so the promotion is an expansion of duties. Per Manuel, Allison had a strong run as an amateur scout with the Diamondbacks from 2007 through 2010. He also worked with the Mets and Brewers in a scouting capacity from 1996 through 2006.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Cards, Reds, Brewers

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As the Cubs head into the offseason, the team is expected to look at reviving many of the summer trade deadline talks that never came to fruition, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said yesterday, Chicago is after pitching. The team could rejoin its pursuit of pitchers such as Tyson Ross of the Padres, Julio Teheran of the Braves, and Carlos Carrasco of the Indians, per Wittenmyer. Interestingly, he adds that the Cubs are rather enamored of Indians converted outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall, who rather suddenly became an outstanding right fielder last year after moving off of third base. Wittenmyer says it wouldn’t be surprising to see Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, or Jorge Soler (or any two of them) moved for pitching this winter, adding that Atlanta is “especially high on Soler.”

Here are some more notes out of the NL Central:

  • The Cardinals could see some turnover this winter, and MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch takes a look at the overall roster situation. She notes that the organization may not be able to strike as quickly as it has in past offseasons if it makes Jason Heyward a priority, as his market may take a bit longer to come into focus. New reserve options at catcher and the middle infield could be pursued, and bullpen additions — possibly including a re-signing of Carlos Villanueva — appear likely.
  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals will maintain the same coaching staff for 2016, Langosch reports. The whole group had been invited back, and reached new agreements in short order. Serving under manager Mike Matheny once again will be bench coach David Bell, first base coach Chris Maloney, third base coach Jose Oquendo, pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, hitting coach John Mabry, assistant hitting coach Bill Mueller, and bullpen coach Blaise Ilsley.
  • The Reds have announced some coaching staff changes for 2016, with Mark Riggins taking over as the pitching coach and Tony Jaramillo joining the staff as assistant hitting coach. Per the club, Jim Riggleman will remain the bench coach under skipper Bryan Price, while Don Long (hitting), Billy Hatcher (third base), Freddie Benavides (first base), Mack Jenkins (bullpen), and Mike Stefanski (catching) all return.
  • In an inter-division switch, the Brewers have hired away Derek Johnson from the Cubs to serve as their pitching coach, David Kaplan of CSN Chicago and ESPN Chicago reports on Twitter. Johnson had served as the minor league pitching coordinator in Chicago after a lengthy stint at Vanderbilt University’s outstanding baseball program.

 

Heyman’s Latest: Mattingly, Red Sox, Ozuna, Heyward, Giants, Storen

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The Marlins have interviewed at least five candidates for their managerial opening, but they put their search on hold to wait to see what the future held for Don Mattingly, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also looks at the Dodgers’ upcoming managerial search, noting that former Padres manager Bud Black, current Dodgers third base coach/former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke and current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach could factor into L.A.’s search for a replacement in addition to early favorite Gabe Kapler. Here are some more highlights from the column…

  • The Braves will pursue bullpen upgrades this winter after their relief corps struggled tremendously in 2015. Presumably, the club could be in the mix for some short-term upgrades that could be flipped come the trade deadline, though I’ll point out that the Braves will probably be better off in 2016 with the returns of Shae Simmons, Chris Withrow and perhaps Daniel Winkler from Tommy John surgery.
  • While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.
  • The White Sox are on the lookout for third base help and will also pursue upgrades behind the plate. Chicago wound up designating Conor Gillaspie, its primary third baseman from 2013 through the first half of 2015, for assignment this summer and trading him to the Angels. Tyler Flowers had a poor second half, although as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his Offseason Outlook on the ChiSox, Flowers has worked hard to become an excellent pitch framer, so he does bring some value to the table in that increasingly important element of the game.
  • Some feel that the Reds are going to blow things up and go for a full-on rebuild this winter, though Heyman writes that Brandon Phillips is said to have negative trade value. Considering the fact that Phillips had a decent rebound season at the plate and is still a sound defender whose contract no longer is too burdensome, I wonder if that’s a universal sentiment. While he’s not a bargain, Phillips seems to be at least reasonably priced.
  • The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.
  • The Indians still have interest in Marcell Ozuna, as they reportedly did prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. I mentioned in my Offseason Outlook for Cleveland that a pursuit of Ozuna would make some sense and speculated on a potential match sending Trevor Bauer to Miami. Heyman notes that the Marlins are looking for a frontline pitcher to pair with Jose Fernandez, but history shows us they’re not likely to spend on a top-tier free agent.
  • The Astros, too, are looking for bullpen upgrades. Houston pursued top-end relief talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, with GM Jeff Luhnow candidly telling the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’d like to pursue a “flamethrower.”
  • The Twins are expected to pursue a reunion with A.J. Pierzynski, as many have speculated on recently (myself included). Heyman notes that the Braves will probably try to bring Pierzynski back as well. Minnesota also wants Torii Hunter back, but in a reduced role.
  • Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd’s $8MM option.
  • The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Reds, Walker

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The Cardinals have overcome a lack of offense in recent years, but that needs to change going forward, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. GM John Mozeliak acknowledges that part of the club’s everyday lineup is in its decline phase, but also says that the greater portion carries “a lot more upside.” He says that the situation on offense needs improvement, but adds that he doesn’t believe “it’s as drastic as other people interpret it.” Goold takes a deep look at the team’s offensive struggles, and its options going forward, in a well-researched piece that deserves a full read.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Many in the Reds’ baseball operations department believe the club should sell off veterans in an all-out rebuilding effort, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. There are varying levels of rebuilds, of course, and Olney says that a full-on Astros/Cubs-style tear-down could be under consideration. Cincinnati dealt away soon-to-be free agents last summer, but held onto its controllable veterans. The team has a variety of appealing talent, including some younger assets and well-established players like Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Joey Votto.
  • The Pirates ought to bring back second baseman Neil Walker for one more year but shouldn’t explore an extension, Brian O’Neill of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines. MLBTR projects Walker to earn $10.7MM in arbitration, which could make him a trade candidate for the low-budget Bucs. But with one more season of arb eligibility remaining, says O’Neill, Walker lines up perfectly with the organization’s needs, as a rehabbing Jung-ho Kang and rising youngster Alen Hanson will soon be on the way. An extension, meanwhile, would mean far too great a commitment given Walker’s age and likely earning power, compared with the team’s needs.

NL Notes: Heyward, Reds, Desmond

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The Cardinals need to re-sign impending free agent Jason Heyward, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Heyward’s traditional stats don’t jump off the page, but he makes a difference with his fielding, throwing and baserunning, says Hochman, who also points to Heyward’s age and clubhouse presence. The Cardinals aren’t showing their hand  yet, but they believe they have enough talent that they won’t let the situation with Heyward slow them down. “[H]istorically we’ve had that issue come up where are you held prisoner until you get something accomplished. The good news for us is I don’t think that’s the case here,” says GM John Mozeliak. “I think we have enough internal flexibility where we can still look to do other things and still accomplish what we need to do.” In a recent MLBTR Newsletter, Tim Dierkes examined 25 teams as potential suitors for Heyward, concluding that the teams most likely to sign him were the Yankees, Astros, Angels and Mariners along with the Cardinals. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Reds have a long road ahead as they attempt to catch up with the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The Reds need help offensively and won’t have much money with which to acquire it this offseason. “We have really, really stiff competition in our division,” says Joey Votto. “We can’t go in with a half effort because of how good those three teams are. … They’re good it seems at every aspect of the game. We have to exceed them.” Earlier this week, I looked for the Reds’ path forward as part of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series.
  • After a down season in 2015, it looks highly unlikely shortstop Ian Desmond will re-sign with the Nationals, Chase Hughes of Nats Insider writes. The Nats won’t want to add another risky long-term contract, given that they already have the Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman deals on the books. And Trea Turner’s emergence gives them a potential replacement for Desmond at shortstop.
  • North Carolina State’s 2011 recruiting class has already produced Turner and Carlos Rodon, and four other players from that class were also drafted, as Baseball America’s Jim Shonerd notes. That kind of haul is noteworthy not only for the talent involved, but because NC State got all those players in the last year before the new CBA limited the abilities of teams to spend heavily on late-round draft picks. The Wolfpack had, for example, also recruited righties Jake Junis (who ended up signing with the Royals for $675K) and Jason Creasy (who signed with the Pirates for $250K).

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds might not have been certain they’d contend in 2015, but they probably didn’t expect their season to go quite as badly as it did. While the Reds’ struggles this year (and particularly down the stretch) were hard to watch, there’s a kind of freedom in knowing for sure that you’re bad. This offseason, we’ll see what the Reds do with that freedom.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $199MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $86MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 mutual option)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $27MM through 2017
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $25.1MM through 2018
  • Raisel Iglesias, SP: $22MM through 2020 (includes $1.5MM of signing bonus to be paid in November 2016)
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13.5MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Todd Frazier, 3B: $7.5MM through 2016 (eligible for arbitration for 2017 season)

Arbitration Eligible Players (Service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Reds’ 98-loss 2015 season didn’t come completely out of nowhere. In 2014, the Reds finished with just a 76-86 record. They had a well-compensated core, and most of their rotation was set for free agency following the 2015 season. In response, they made some moves to reduce payroll and look ahead, dealing Mat Latos to the Marlins and Alfredo Simon to the Tigers. But those moves were relatively small and tentative, and the Reds waited to make some bigger moves this summer with their trades of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. Now, with a sketchy big-league roster, little short-term payroll space, and incredibly tough divisional competition, there’s no obvious way for the Reds to contend next year, and little to do but to keep rebuilding.

But the best reason for the Reds to continue their rebuild (a label GM Walt Jocketty doesn’t like, but that already accurately describes what they’re doing) is that they do have good assets to trade, beginning with Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman. Frazier is signed to a reasonable deal through 2016, after which he’ll be arbitration eligible for one more season. He’ll be 30 in February, so it’s unlikely he’ll be part of the next good Reds team. Given his exceptional power (35 home runs in 2015) and strong defense, he should attract a ton of interest, even though he faded badly down the stretch. The Reds should expect to get a nice return for him, including at least one top 100-type prospect. There aren’t many recent offseason trades involving players of Frazier’s talent with two years of service time remaining, but suffice it to say that Frazier’s value ought to be significant. The Angels or perhaps a surprise team like the Indians or White Sox could make sense as trade partners.

USATSI_8767494_154513410_lowresAs for Chapman, closers with one year of service time remaining are traded quite frequently, but Chapman is so blindingly great that his value is should be closer to that of, say, a no. 2-type starter than a closer. The Mariners and other teams could be possible trade partners, and the Diamondbacks have shown interest in the past. The Reds should have little trouble finding a market, although their path to a trade could be complicated, if only slightly, by the availability of excellent relievers like Craig Kimbrel and Darren O’Day through either trade or free agency. If the Reds can’t find an offer they like, perhaps they could really roll the dice and try to use Chapman as a starter, hoping to market him as an ace in July, but that might be overly ambitious, since he’s already more valuable than most starters anyway.

The Reds also ought to consider trading Brandon Phillips if there are any takers (and if he’ll accept a trade — he has ten-and-five rights). Phillips is coming off a solid 2.6-fWAR season, but at 34, he might not have many good years left. The Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Royals and White Sox could all be potential trade partners.

The Braves’ trade of Kimbrel to the Padres illustrates one approach the Reds could take to dealing Frazier or Chapman. The Braves used Kimbrel, in part, to clear future salary, getting rid of Melvin Upton Jr.’s contract in the deal. The Reds could take a similar approach by packaging Frazier along with Homer Bailey, who has four expensive years remaining on his contract and won’t be back until at least next summer after having Tommy John surgery last May. That would give the Reds greater payroll flexibility, which should come in handy next time they’re ready to contend.

Then again, that would be selling low on Bailey, who is only 29 and seems likely to recover. And while the Reds have about $82MM already on the books for 2016, that number drops to about $67MM in 2017, with about a third of that going to Joey Votto. Two of the Reds’ highest-paid players in 2015, Votto and Phillips, performed well. Another, Jay Bruce, can become a free agent after 2016 if the Reds let him. (Bruce might have been a more interesting trade candidate this winter if he’d hit better than .226/.294/.434 in 2015; perhaps the Reds could get the most value for him by waiting and hoping he gets off to a good start next season.) And two more, Bailey and Devin Mesoraco, ought to recover from their injuries and eventually provide value. Beyond Frazier, Chapman and Phillips, then, the Reds need not be in any rush to trade their veterans until they get the right offers.

Assuming the Reds do consider trading Frazier, Chapman, Phillips and perhaps others, they could pursue any number of player types in return. The only positions where the Reds appear relatively set for the medium-term future are catcher (Mesoraco), first base (Votto) and center field (Billy Hamilton, whose running and fielding give him plenty of value despite a second consecutive disappointing season at the plate). That’s not to say there aren’t other potentially helpful players, just that none of them are obviously set at any one position. Left fielder Adam Duvall, for example, hit reasonably well for the Reds after they acquired him in the Mike Leake trade, but he’s 27; playing him every day need not be a priority. And Eugenio Suarez hits well enough to play somewhere, although he might not be a shortstop in the long term.

There’s even less certainty in the rotation. The team did well to add Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb when it traded Cueto, but the Reds’ all-rookie rotation did the team few favors down the stretch. Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias look set to contribute in 2016, but beyond that, the Reds have a lot of sorting out to do with Finnegan, Lamb, Keyvius Sampson, David Holmberg, Josh Smith, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot and, eventually, top prospect Robert Stephenson. Given the attrition rates of young pitchers, and the fact that some of their existing talent looks a bit fringy, the Reds could easily stand to add more pitching in upcoming trades.

Of course, while the Reds’ most obvious course of action at this point is to trade veterans for young players, they still have to put a team on the field in 2016. They can use a starting pitcher to soak up 150 innings — a cheap deal for someone like Bud Norris, Kyle Kendrick or former Reds Aaron Harang or Simon might make sense. They could also sign a buy-low pitcher like Doug Fister and hope he regains enough value to land good talent at the deadline.

Bullpen help will also likely be a priority, given the possible departures of Chapman and Manny Parra. If Chapman heads elsewhere, the team could probably move J.J. Hoover or Jumbo Diaz into the closer’s role, and it shouldn’t spend heavily on a closer. Bringing back Burke Badenhop at an effective cost of $2.5MM ($4MM minus a $1.5MM buyout) might make sense for the Reds, and Badenhop could pick up his end of the option, since he would sacrifice the buyout if he rejected it. And either re-signing Parra or adding a Neal Cotts lefty type would also help, particularly if the Reds are committed to using Finnegan as a starter.

The Reds could also pursue position players, but it’s difficult to say what type of player they might be interested in until we see which position players they trade, if any, and whether anyone from those trades can step in right away. They’re set to lose two bench players in Brayan Pena and Skip Schumaker (whose option they shouldn’t exercise), but they likely won’t miss either one. Tucker Barnhart is a decent replacement for Pena, and Schumaker was a drain on the Reds both offensively and defensively, especially now that he’s more of a poor defensive corner outfielder than a poor defensive second baseman.

The key question for the Reds, then, is exactly how far they want their rebuilding effort to go. Of all the veterans the Reds could trade, the most intriguing one might be Votto, who seems likely to stay. Votto has full no-trade protection, and his enormous contract would make trading him a logistical headache, but let’s consider what dealing him might do for the organization. Votto just finished an exceptional .314/.459/.541 season that might have been the best of his career. However, he’s already 32, and as great as he is now, the Reds’ $199MM commitment to him through his age-39 season borders on the absurd, and his value might never be higher. Votto’s contract is highly likely to go south at some point. He’s clearly underpaid right now, and probably also will be next year, but he likely won’t be by the time the Reds are ready to contend.

So what should the Reds do? The fantasy-baseball answer is that they should trade him, but it’s obviously rare for teams to trade excellent players they still control for nine more years. Surely, the Reds might argue, there’s a way to build for the future without trading a star who can still be with the team for almost a decade more. Players like Votto are hard to find, and even in a rebuilding year, he’ll have value for the Reds, in that he’s a popular homegrown player who would make an otherwise young team worth watching. An aggressive executive like Billy Beane or Jeff Luhnow would surely consider trading Votto, assuming he were to waive his no-trade clause. But it’s unclear whether Jocketty, who hasn’t rebuilt a team recently, might take a similar path.

In any case, the Reds will spend the 2016 season regrouping, and if they end up grabbing headlines this offseason, it will probably be because of who they’re trading away, not who they’re getting. In early October, the Reds announced that they would keep manager Bryan Price for next season, despite the team’s struggles this year. And why not? Price was already under contract, and as long as the Reds believed him capable of nurturing their younger players, there was little point in replacing him. Maybe if they were a bit closer to turning a corner, they would have given a new manager a chance. As it stands, maybe they want to wait until their rebuild is a little further along before they make a change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Martin, Fowler, Phillies, Padres, D’Backs

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It was on this day in 1948 that the Cleveland Indians clinched the World Series with a Game Six victory over the Boston Braves.  This marks the Tribe’s last Series championship, the second-longest title drought in baseball behind only the Cubs (who still have a shot at breaking their curse this year).  Here’s some news from around baseball as we head into another four-game day of postseason action on Monday…

  • Leonys Martin has declined to report to the Rangers’ instructional league team, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports.  The club kept some players in training should they be needed for a postseason call-up, though GM Jon Daniels said that Martin “apparently was miffed” over being left off the playoff roster in the first place.  Given how Martin struggled this season and lost the center field job to Delino DeShields, you wonder if this incident could lead to the Rangers non-tendering Martin; the outfielder is projected by MLBTR to earn $1.6MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.
  • Dexter Fowler is focused on the NLDS and isn’t thinking about his pending free agency, and Cubs GM Jed Hoyer agrees that “it’s not the right time to talk about it.”  Still, Hoyer tells the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan that “we’d love to have him (back). We’ve loved everything about his game and the way he has gone about his business for us.”  Fowler hit .250/.346/.411 with 17 homers, 102 runs and 20 steals over 690 plate appearances for the Cubs in 2015, though his center field defense was below-average according to the UZR/150 (-1.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (-12) metrics.
  • The seven players outrighted off the Phillies roster earlier this week aren’t necessarily out of the club’s plans, interim GM Scott Proefrock tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki.  “I can’t tell you we would rule out resigning any of these guys,” Proefrock said.  “We’re just trying to clear up space on the roster. These guys were the first group that we decided to take off.”  Ken Roberts is the only one of the seven who will automatically remain in Philadelphia’s system; Jordan Danks, Chase d’Arnaud, Justin De Fratus, Erik Kratz, Adam Loewen and Jonathan Pettibone can all elect to become either Major League or minor league free agents.
  • The Padres will add a left-handed bat this winter or else MLB.com’s Corey Brock “would be stunned” (Twitter link).  San Diego’s lineup tilted heavily to the right last season and the paid for it, finishing at or near the bottom of several offensive categories against right-handed pitching.
  • The Diamondbacks are expected to target a front-line starting pitcher and a back-end reliever this offseason, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert writes in a position-by-position look at the team.  The club has to step carefully with regard to top-tier free agents like David Price due to budget concerns, but they have plenty of trade pieces available if they preferred dealing for an ace.  (It has already been reported that Mike Leake could be a D’Backs target this winter.)  Gilbert notes Patrick Corbin as the lone lock for a rotation spot but there are a lot of players competing for spots behind him.
  • The Diamondbacks are happy with Brad Ziegler (who’s likely to see his club option exercised) in a late-inning role but they want more depth around him, Gilbert writes.  A trade for Reds closer Aroldis Chapman remains a possibility for if the Snakes want to make a big upgrade to the bullpen.

MLBTR’s Brad Johnson also contributed to this post

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