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Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Collin Balester

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Righty Collin Balester was part of the last-ever Montreal Expos draft in 2004, as the club took him in the fourth round out of Huntington Beach High School.  Though he came from a surfing family, according to Baseball America, Balester moved quickly through the lower minors.  By 2007, he was considered the Nationals’ best prospect and a future number one or two starter.

During the summer of ’08, Balester was deemed ready to join the rotation of the tanking Nationals club.  He made a career-high 15 starts as a 22-year-old rookie, putting up three quality starts in the process.

Balester eventually moved into a relief role for the Nats, but was traded to the Tigers in December 2011.  His career also included stops in the Rangers, Pirates, Reds, and Giants organizations, as well as a stint with KBO’s Samsung Lions.  Along the way, Balester underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2013, battling to get back to the Majors with the Reds in after a gap of more than three years.

Ultimately, Collin topped 200 total innings in the Majors in parts of six different seasons.  Along the way he managed to strike out Ken Griffey Jr., Buster Posey, Freddie Freeman, and Chipper Jones, among many others.  Now 36, Collin owns a juice shop with his wife called Local Roots, and also does logistics for an expedited shipping truck company.  Give him a follow @Ballystar99 on Twitter.

Collin took questions from MLBTR readers today, covering a wide range of topics including being traded, pitching in Korea, being on the 2012 Tigers, and his juice and smoothie recommendations.  Click here to read the transcript!

If you’re a current or former MLB player, we’d love to host you for a future chat!  It only takes one hour, and you get to choose which questions to publish and answer.  Contact us here!

Quick Hits: Stephenson, Meneses, Oakland

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Tyler Stephenson was one of the bright spots of a tepid Reds offense that contributed to them finishing 62-100 and securing their first 100-loss season since 1982. The trouble was the Reds only called upon Stephenson in 50 games last year, and getting a full season out of their young catcher will be a huge boost to their lineup in 2023 and beyond.

As Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, the Reds are looking to utilize Stephenson in 140-150 games in 2023, but the majority of those appearances could come at designated hitter to try and protect his body from the rigors of catching. He did, after all, hit .319/.372/.482 with six home runs across 183 plate appearances so it’s no surprise that the Reds are trying to figure out the best way to get a full season’s worth of that offense.

The Reds have signed Curt Casali and Luke Maile to their roster and plan to carry three catchers throughout 2023, and Nightengale writes that the team could look to use Stephenson as a catcher twice a week, which would equate to 54 games over the course of the season, with Casali and Maile handling the rest.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

  • Joey Meneses was a revelation for the rebuilding Nationals in 2022, slashing .324/.367/.563 with 13 home runs over 240 plate appearances in his age-30 rookie campaign. As the Talk Nats podcast revealed, the Nats tried to sign Meneses after the 2019 season but he opted to go to Japan instead. At the time, Japan was likely a far more financially appealing option for Meneses given he would’ve been looking at another minor league deal had he stayed in the States.
  • The A’s are planning to use Jesus Aguilar at both first base and designated hitter in 2023, general manager David Forst told reporters, including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Aguilar appeared in 63 games at first and 60 at DH last year for the Marlins and Orioles, and it seems likely he’ll have a similar split this year. The 32-year-old had a disappointing 2022, slashing just .235/.281/.379 with 16 home runs over 507 plate appearances. He’d been a productive hitter for a few years prior though, and that was enough for Oakland to give him a one-year, $3MM deal for 2023. The rebuilding A’s will surely be hoping for a rebound at the plate so Aguilar can turn himself into a valuable trade chip at the deadline.
  • Sticking with the A’s, and Forst says Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian have both progressed well in their rehab and should be ready for spring training. “I think it’s reasonable to expect both guys to be ready to go,” Forst said (Twitter link). Both players figure to be part of Oakland’s rotation this year. Blackburn, 29, pitched in 21 games last year and worked to a 4.28 ERA over 111 1/3 innings, striking out batters at a 19.1% clip against a 6.4% walk rate. He was a productive pitcher for the first three months of the season and earned his first All Star game callup. He was shelled for 21 runs over 14 1/3 innings while pitching through pain in his pitching hand before he ultimately went on the injured list. That pain ballooned out his ERA a bit and wound up ending his season, so it’ll be interesting to see if Blackburn can rediscover his early season form in 2023. He’ll earn $1.9MM in his first year of arbitration. Kaprielian threw 134 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in 2022, but underwent shoulder surgery in the off-season to repair his AC joint. His rotation spot is probably a little less secure than Blackburn’s, but the trade of Cole Irvin opens up another spot and if healthy he seems likely to at least start the year in the rotation alongside Blackburn, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami.

Health Notes: King, Antone, Sewald

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Yankees righty Michael King, who missed the final two and a half months of the 2022 season due to a fractured right elbow, tells The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty that he expects to be ready for Opening Day and anticipates being deployed as a multi-inning reliever in 2023. The 27-year-old King was in the midst of a breakout season when he suffered his ill-timed injury. Prior to landing on the IL, he’d pitched to an outstanding 2.29 ERA and whiffed 33.2% of his opponents against a tidy 8% walk rate. The righty was also touting a career-high 47% grounder rate and career-low 0.53 HR/9 mark.  His 96.5 mph average fastball was the best of his career. Just three weeks ago, Opening Day was reported to be a slightly optimistic target for King, so his firmer confidence in his ability to be ready for the season is a welcome development for the Yankees and their fans.

A few more health/injury updates of note from around the league…

  • Reds reliever Tejay Antone’s offseason throwing program has been slowed by a forearm issue, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, though it’s not believed to be related to the right-hander’s surgically repaired elbow. Antone was having one of the best seasons of any reliever in baseball before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. The former fifth-rounder turned in an outstanding 2.14 ERA with a gaudy 32.8% strikeout rate against a 10.2% walk rate while holding opponents to a comically inept .152/.258/.250 batting line through 128 plate appearances. If healthy, he could quickly ascend the bullpen hierarchy and return to high-leverage work in 2022. Antone has another three seasons of club control remaining and is set to earn just $770K this season. As such, he’ll quite likely garner plenty of summer trade interest if he’s back to form, given the state of the Reds’ rebuild.
  • Mariners reliever Paul Sewald might not be ready for the beginning of Spring Training, as Corey Brock of The Athletic reports that the righty underwent a “minor clean-up of his heel and elbow.” The exact timeline of the procedure or recovery aren’t known, though Brock suggests Sewald should still be ready to go by Opening Day. Turning 33 in May, Sewald is enjoying a late-career bloom. After posting underwhelming numbers over the 2017 to 2020 stretch, he has a 2.87 ERA in 127 appearances over the past two campaigns, striking out 34.8% of batters in faced in that time against an 8.1% walk rate. He and the club agreed to a $4.1MM salary for the upcoming campaign and he’ll have one further arbitration season in 2024 before he’s slated for free agency.

Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that third baseman Scott Rolen has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle. He will be inducted alongside first baseman Fred McGriff, who was previously elected by the Era Committee.

Rolen received 76.3% of the vote, just above the 75% required for induction. A few players just under that line were Todd Helton at 72.2%, Billy Wagner at 68.1% and Andruw Jones at 58.1%. Here are the full results, per the BBWAA.

A native of Indiana, Rolen was selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He made his way up to the majors and debuted in 1996 when he was just 21 years old. He hit at a below-average rate in that 37-game debut but he truly broke out the next year. In 1997, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases en route to a batting line of .283/.377/.469. That production was 21% better than the league average hitter that year, as evidenced by his 121 wRC+. He was crowned the National League Rookie of the Year for that campaign.

Rolen would go on to contribute in similar fashion for the Phillies over the next few seasons. He hit between 25 and 34 homers in each season from 1998 to 2004 while also swiping at least eight bases in all but the last season of that stretch. His excellent third base defense started to be recognized during this period as well, as he won a Gold Glove award in 1998. That was the first of eight such awards he would eventually win.

That period included a trade to the Cardinals in 2002, a team for whom he would have some of his best seasons. The standout season of his career was 2004, where Rolen went deep 34 times and produced a batting line of .314/.409/.598. His wRC+ was 159 and his stellar defense led to him racking up 9.0 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations at FanGraphs. Only Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were able to best him in terms of fWAR that year. Bonds took home the National League Most Valuable Player award that year with Rolen in fourth place in the voting, also trailing Beltre and Albert Pujols.

In 2005, he played just 56 games before injuring his shoulder and eventually requiring season-ending surgery. He got back on track in 2006 with another strong season, hitting 22 home runs and producing at an above-average level. The Cards won the National League Central division and eventually went on to win the World Series over the Tigers. Rolen played one more season in St. Louis but was traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2008 season. He spent a season and a half in Toronto before getting dealt to the Reds, where he played out the remainder of his career. Over 17 MLB seasons, he hit 316 home runs, scored 1,211 runs, drove in 1,287, and stole 118 bases. He made seven All-Star teams, won eight Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a World Series.

In 2018, he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He garnered 10.2% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold for admittance but well above the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot. His vote share grew to 17.2%, 35.3%, 52.9% and 63.2% in the subsequent years, finally getting over the hump here in 2023. MLBTR congratulates him on his induction.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Krall: Reds Unlikely To Make Further Roster Additions

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With about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still some notable free agents on the board but it doesn’t seem like the Reds are planning to be active in that department. The club kicked off their caravan tour today and Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was there to talk to team personnel including general manager Nick Krall, who said that the roster is “pretty much set,” though the club could still bring in some more non-roster invitees.

There are certainly some areas of the roster where additional investment would be justified, but it doesn’t seem like the resources are there for the rebuilding club. It’s not exactly a shocking revelation as Krall has been downplaying the likelihood of significant upgrades since October. Since that time, the club has traded for Kevin Newman, Casey Legumina and Nick Solak while signing free agents Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali and Luke Maile. After those moves, the club’s payroll is just under the $100MM line, according to Roster Resource. That would be their lowest Opening Day figure since 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems they’re committed to leaving plenty of runway to let their young players battle each other for future roles on the team. “We’ve got a solid group of guys both on the big league club and in our minor league system,” Krall said. “We have a lot solid young players at the big league level. It’s just continuing to develop out of our system.”

The rotation is perhaps the most intriguing part of the roster at the major league level. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all debuted last year and flashed good stuff, but with some polishing perhaps still required. Greene struck out 30.9% of batters faced but posted a 4.44 ERA, perhaps due to allowing 24 home runs in 125 2/3 innings. Ashcraft only struck out 15.3% of batters faced but got ground balls at a healthy 54.5% clip en route to a 4.89 ERA. Lodolo missed almost three months due to a lower back strain but was able to post a 3.66 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate when healthy. Those three will be joined by reclamation project Weaver, with Luis Cessa, Connor Overton and Justin Dunn among the options to fill out the back end. It’s possible that yet another highly touted prospect could join them at some point as Brandon Williamson finished last year at Triple-A.

The bullpen could also potentially be an interesting group for the club. Alexis Díaz debuted last year and posted a 1.84 ERA, taking over the closer’s job by season’s end. Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone both showed lots of potential over 2020 and 2021 but they each were set back by injuries last year. If they can both get healthy and back on track this year, it’s possible there’s a strong relief corps to build on in Cincinnati.

On the infield, it’s possible that the club will have some tough decisions to make down the road as most of their best youngsters play on the dirt. Baseball America recently released its top 100 list for this year, with infielders Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier being the four Reds on the list. None of those players have reached Triple-A yet and won’t be able to help out immediately, but they will eventually join an infield currently manned by Kevin Newman, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Alejo López, Jose Barrero and Joey Votto. Newman seems like a placeholder and Votto is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, but the rest of that group are young and controllable for years to come.

The outfield is more of a hodgepodge of players who have had sprinklings of MLB time but without fully cementing themselves as viable solutions. Myers will give them one solid veteran next to Solak, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Nick Senzel, Stuart Fairchild and Michael Siani. Behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson will be the primary catcher but he missed significant time due to various injuries in 2022, leading to the club bring in Maile and Casali so that Stephenson’s workload can be managed.

It’s unlikely that the Reds will find themselves in contention this year, but the individual performances of all these players could still shape the future of the franchise. There’s a decent amount of money coming off the books at the end of this year, as it’s the final guaranteed season for Votto and the now-released Mike Moustakas. That means there’s close to nothing on the books for 2024 and beyond. It’s possible the club could become more aggressive at that time, and how they dedicate those resources down the line will depend on how these players perform between now and then.

Reds Re-Sign Derek Law To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve re-signed right-handed reliever Derek Law to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp this spring. Cincinnati non-tendered him back in November.

Law spent the final two months of the 2022 season with the Reds organization after spending much of the year with the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate, where he’d pitched to a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings. The 32-year-old righty pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 49.1% ground-ball rate in 17 2/3 innings for Cincinnati after being selected to the big league roster in August.

This past season was the sixth in which Law, a ninth-round pick by the Giants back in 2011, has spent time in the Majors. He debuted with a sensational 2.13 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate and 50.3% grounder rate in 55 innings with the 2016 Giants, though he’s yet to replicate that standout performance in any of his subsequent MLB efforts. In 201 innings as a big leaguer, Law carries a 4.21 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that are a bit worse than league-average (21.9% and 9.8%, respectively).

Law’s 2022 season had at least one substantial change from his prior work, as he leaned on a newly implemented cutter as his primary pitch. Nearly half of Law’s pitches were cutters despite the fact that he’d never thrown the pitch during a Major League outing before the 2022 season. He’ll continue to hone that new offering in his return to the Reds, hoping to parlay that into another opportunity in the Cincinnati ’pen.

The Reds should have ample opportunity for Law and other non-roster invitees this spring. Alexis Diaz is locked in as the team’s closer, with righties Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan and Buck Farmer and lefty Reiver Sanmartin among the options behind him. However, both Santillan and Sanmartin posted ugly numbers on the season. Antone missed the entire 2022 campaign following Tommy John surgery, while Sims was limited to just 6 2/3 innings due to a back injury. Law will join names like Alex Young, Tayron Guerrero, Silvino Bracho and Alan Busenitz as non-roster invitees hoping to force their way into the big league bullpen picture.

Reds Outright Matt Reynolds

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Jan. 20: Reynolds accepted his assignment to Louisville, the Reds announced. He’ll be invited to Major League camp in spring training.

Jan. 19: Infielder/outfielder Matt Reynolds has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Reynolds was designated for assignment last week when the club signed right-hander Luke Weaver.

Reynolds, 32, began last season with the Mets but went to the Reds on a waiver claim in April. He’d long put up good number in Triple-A but hadn’t been able to reproduce them at the big league level. The rebuilding Reds gave him a shot and kept him on the roster for the rest of the season, sending him up to the plate 272 times. He drew walks at a healthy 9.6% clip but also struck out 28.7% of the time and only went deep three times. He finished the season with a .246/.320/.332 batting line and an 81 wRC+, indicating he was 19% below league average.

While his bat fell short of the MLB mean, he did at least provide the Reds with plenty of defensive versatility. He suited up at the seven non-battery positions and even made two mop-up appearances on the mound, meaning that the only position he didn’t play was catcher.

It seems that wasn’t enough to entice any of the 29 other clubs around the league, with all of them passing on the chance to add Reynolds to their 40-man. As mentioned by Rosecrans, Reynolds has the right to reject his outright assignment and elect free agency. That’s due to the fact that he’d previously been outrighted in his career. Whether he’ll accept that assignment or not remains to be seen.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Reds Sign Alex Young, Richie Martin To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced a pair of minor league deals today, one of them going to left-hander Alex Young and the other to infielder Richie Martin. Both players have received invitations to major league Spring Training.

Young, 29, was a second round pick of the Diamondbacks in the 2015 draft. He had a solid debut in the majors in 2019, throwing 83 1/3 innings with a 3.56 ERA. His 20.3% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 7.7% rate and got grounders at a 44.4% clip.

The next couple of seasons were a struggle, however, with the southpaw posting ERAs of 5.44 in 2020 and 6.58 the year after. The Diamondbacks put him on waivers in that latter campaign, with Young getting claimed by Cleveland. The Guardians then passed him through waivers in the offseason but he pitched well in the minors and got selected back to the roster in July. He only made one appearance for Cleveland before getting designated for assignment but the Giants liked him enough to send cash considerations to the Guards and put Young into 24 games.

Young got some good results with the Giants and finished the year with a 2.36 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. His 18.1% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were both subpar but he got grounders at a strong 54.2% rate. Despite that performance, he was non-tendered by the Giants after the season.

Right now, the Reds have Reiver Sanmartin as their only lefty on the 40-man that’s projected to be in the bullpen. If Young can make his way onto the roster, he can provide them with some roster flexibility since he still has one option year remaining. He can also be retained for future seasons via arbitration since he has just under three years of MLB service time.

As for Martin, 28, he was a first round selection of the A’s in 2015. Prospect evaluators have long praised his defense, speed and athleticism but raised concerns about his work with the bat. The A’s weren’t satisfied enough with his progress to give him a roster spot after 2018, allowing the Orioles to nab him with the first pick in that year’s Rule 5 draft.

Martin stuck on the rebuilding O’s roster that year, allowing them to obtain full control over his rights. However, the concerns about his bat have come to fruition. Through 447 plate appearances in the majors thus far, he’s hit just .212/.261/.311 for a wRC+ of 50. He’s been better in the minors but still not very exciting. In 80 Triple-A games last year, he hit .250/.341/.380 for a wRC+ of 96, though he did steal 29 bases in that time. The O’s outrighted him off the roster in September and he elected free agency at season’s end.

For the Reds, there’s little harm in taking a flier and seeing if Martin can find another gear this year. They are currently set to send another glove-first option to their shortstop position in Kevin Newman. It’s expected that prospect Elly De La Cruz will eventually take over as the club’s shortstop of the future, though he’s only 21 and has yet to reach Triple-A. If Martin can take a step forward at the plate, there would be little preventing the Reds from giving him a shot in the big leagues. If he earns his way onto the roster, he still has one option year remaining and can be retained for a while via arbitration since he has between two and three years of major league service time.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
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