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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds had another slow offseason, their second straight winter defined mostly by inactivity. It’s a rebuild in Cincinnati, with the upcoming season again more about evaluating the future than winning in the short term.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $11.675MM
Total spending: $13.925MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Reds stripped things down over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling a team that had finished a few games off a Wild Card appearance. Payroll constraints led to a reboot of the roster, with a number of veterans shipped out for young talent either last winter or at the summer deadline. That teardown paired with brutal injury luck resulted in the second 100-loss season in franchise history.

It’s an organization now clearly amidst a rebuild. There was never much expectation for the Reds to do a whole lot this offseason, and general manager Nick Krall essentially confirmed as much before the winter got underway.

Unlike last winter, when the likes of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray were on the roster, Cincinnati didn’t go into this offseason with many obvious trade chips. The most apparent candidate was shortstop Kyle Farmer, who was headed into his second-to-last season of arbitration control. Farmer is a low-end regular at shortstop or high-quality utility piece who’d have modest appeal to a contender. Cincinnati indeed cashed him in for young talent.

It was a one-for-one swap with the Twins that brought back Double-A swingman Casey Legumina. The Gonzaga product had just been added to the Minnesota 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’ll start the season in the upper minors but could factor into the MLB mix later in the year.

Hours after trading away Farmer, Cincinnati backfilled at shortstop with another stopgap veteran. The Reds and division-rival Pirates aligned on a deal that brought in Kevin Newman for middle reliever Dauri Moreta. Newman is also in his penultimate arbitration season and broadly brings a similar profile to the departed Farmer: a contact-oriented offensive approach at the bottom of a lineup and solid glovework. Newman is a little more affordable and could be a midseason trade chip.

He steps into an infield that has a handful of players vying for reps. It’s unknown if Joey Votto will be ready for Opening Day after last summer’s rotator cuff surgery; once healthy, the former MVP will be back at first base. Jonathan India is looking for a bounceback year at second base.

Newman is the presumptive starting shortstop. Jose Barrero could also get one more look to see if he can piece things together offensively. Barrero was a fairly recent top prospect based on his power and defense. He’s coming off an atrocious season in both Triple-A and the big leagues, though, and the clock could be ticking for him to carve out a role. Elly De La Cruz has now firmly emerged as the likely shortstop of the future; he’ll start the year in the upper minors but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Third base also features a few talented but unproven players trying to cement themselves. Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins in last summer’s Mahle trade, made his debut last September. He struggled in his first 28 outings but had an excellent age-24 season in Triple-A. He’ll get the first crack at the hot corner, though there was plenty of buzz in Cincinnati camp regarding corner infield prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Also part of the Mahle trade package, Encarnacion-Strand mashed between High-A and Double-A last season. The Oklahoma State product tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training. Cincinnati reassigned him to minor league camp yesterday, taking him out of the running for an Opening Day roster spot, but he could push Steer for reps before long. That’s also true of Noelvi Marte, a power-hitting infield prospect brought back from the Mariners in the Castillo deal.

The Reds made a firm commitment to the infield youth movement when they released Mike Moustakas in early January. The three-time All-Star was headed into the final season of an ill-advised four-year, $64MM free agent deal. Moustakas had hit only .216/.300/.383 in just 654 plate appearances as a Red. His 2022 campaign was diminished by both underperformance and foot injuries. With little hope of another team taking any notable portion of the $22MM he was due this season, the Reds acknowledged the sunk cost and opened a clearer path to reps for younger players like Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

Cincinnati should also have room on the bench for a non-roster Spring Training invitee or two. The Reds had arguably the best minor league signing of last winter with Brandon Drury, and they again leveraged their lack of certainty on the roster to bring in a swath of veterans on non-roster pacts. Chad Pinder, Henry Ramos and Jason Vosler are among the position players in camp, while Cincinnati brought in over 10 relievers with some level of MLB experience on minor league deals.

As with the left side of the infield, the outfield is up in the air for players to seize a job. Jake Fraley probably has the leg up on a corner spot after a solid second half. The Reds have maintained they’re going to give former top prospect Nick Senzel another crack in center field. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, so the likes of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild could get on the roster.

The Reds rolled the dice on a pair of former top prospects to add to that mix. Their first move of the offseason was to bring in Nick Solak from the Rangers for cash. It was a no-risk flier on a player who has hit well in the upper minors but struggled to carry that over against MLB pitching. Solak doesn’t have a great positional fit — he struggled mightily at second base and is a fringy corner outfielder as well — but he’s a former second-round draftee who has a .293/.370/.510 line in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

While the Reds didn’t give up anything for Solak, they parted with last year’s second-rounder Justin Boyd to take a shot on 24-year-old Will Benson from the Guardians. A first-round pick in 2016, the 6’5″ Benson has moved extremely slowly up the minor league ranks thanks to huge strikeout totals. He’s shown as patient an approach as anyone in affiliated ball, however, and he clearly has raw power potential. While he’s taken some time to climb the ladder, he’s consistently fared better in his second crack at a level than during his first. That was particularly true last season in Triple-A, when Benson sliced his strikeout rate to a personal-best 22.7% en route to a .278/.426/.522 line.

In addition to those fliers on upside plays, the Reds added to the corner outfield in their biggest free agent move of the winter. Cincinnati guaranteed $7.5MM to Wil Myers on a one-year deal, giving him a chance to rebuild his stock in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Myers had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego, hitting for power but struggling to make enough contact to be a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter. At age 32, he’s not a long-term core piece for Cincinnati. He’s a perfectly reasonable veteran addition to a young team, one who’d surely be in trade conversations this summer if he’s performing.

Myers is likely to see the bulk of his playing time in right field. That’s in large part because the club is planning to give young catcher Tyler Stephenson more time at designated hitter. The 26-year-old went on the injured list three times last season, all of which were related to incidents behind the plate. He was concussed in a collision with Luke Voit and both fractured his thumb and clavicle on foul tips. Those injuries were all fluky in nature, although there’s little doubt Stephenson will have a better chance of sticking in the lineup if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance as often.

Skipper David Bell told reporters at the start of Spring Training the Reds were aiming for Stephenson to play around 65 games at catcher and 80+ contests at first base/DH (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). With that in mind, Cincinnati added a pair of veteran backstops to take some of the workload. Northern Kentucky native Luke Maile signed a one-year, $1.175MM pact in November. He was joined by power-hitting veteran Curt Casali, who received $3.25MM in January to return to the Reds for a second stint.

The Reds didn’t do as much to augment the pitching staff, even on lower-cost pickups of the Maile/Casali ilk. The only such addition was right-hander Luke Weaver, who signed for $2MM after being non-tendered by the Mariners. Weaver is another former top prospect who showed some early-career success but has fallen on hard times of late. Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal venue for a pitcher to try to rebuild value. That said, the Reds are likely to afford the 29-year-old another shot to get the ball every fifth day and take a crack at developing a breaking pitch he feels comfortable using regularly.

Weaver will step into the fourth spot in the season-opening rotation. The top three will go to second-year hurlers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. All three have a chance to be core pieces of the next competitive Cincinnati team, with Greene and Lodolo former top ten picks and consensus top prospects. The final rotation spot is up for grabs this spring. Justin Dunn is out of the immediate mix thanks to shoulder issues. The likes of Connor Overton, Luis Cessa and minor league signee Chase Anderson are battling for the job. Prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could join the group over the summer.

Open competition is also the story of the bullpen. Cincinnati didn’t add any MLB veterans to a relief corps that was among the league’s worst. The only acquisitions were Legumina and waiver claim Bennett Sousa, both of whom could start the year in the minors. Cincinnati should welcome back Lucas Sims from an injury-plagued season. They’d hoped for the same with Tejay Antone but he suffered a forearm strain while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will start the year on the injured list.

Cincinnati has breakout reliever Alexis Díaz ticketed for ninth-inning work. One of the few bright spots of the 2022 campaign, the hard-throwing righty reportedly drew some trade interest over the winter which Cincinnati rebuffed. Sims and Buck Farmer should have high-leverage work and could be trade candidates this summer. The middle relief corps is wide open, with the likes of Silvino Bracho, Daniel Norris, Derek Law, Alex Young and Hunter Strickland trying to earn jobs in Spring Training.

Broadly speaking, the 2023 campaign will be about evaluating players for the future and identifying what veterans could be shipped off in the coming months. It’s hard to envision this team finishing higher than fourth in the National League Central. The Reds are near the lowest period of the rebuild, with most of the veteran players shipped away. They’ll continue to incorporate young talent as they look ahead to next offseason, one which could see a relative spike in activity.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract for 2024, with option buyouts for Votto, Moustakas, Myers and Casali representing the only firm commitments. The slate is almost clean for the front office to chart a new path back to contention. In the interim, the fanbase is in for another losing season.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Reds on March 16. Click here to view the transcript.

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Diamond Sports Planning To File For Bankruptcy; MLB Planning To Stream Games For Free Temporarily

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Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that owns 14 Bally Sports regional sports networks, is expected to file for bankruptcy March 17, according to a report from Josh Kosman of The New York Post. The timeline will be awkward for Major League Baseball since the 2023 season opens on March 30, but the league plans to step in and broadcast the games themselves.

It had been reported for some time that Diamond is in financial trouble and they forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last month. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said at that time that the league was monitoring the situation, hoping that Diamond would make its payments but also drawing up contingency plans. It was subsequently reported that the league had hired multiple former RSN executives for a newly-created Local Media department, seemingly to get in position to take over broadcasting duties where necessary.

The problem stems from continued cord-cutting as fewer customers are paying for cable bundles these days, opting instead to use streaming services. That leads to decreased revenue from ad sales and cable contracts, creating situations where RSNs are paying teams more for rights fees than they are able to make back from those revenue streams. Per Kosman’s report, there are at least four teams where Diamond plans to reject the contracts via the bankruptcy proceedings. The teams in question are the Reds, Diamondbacks, Guardians and Padres, with the San Diego deal currently $20MM in the red on an annual basis.

The report goes on to state that MLB’s plan is to take over the local TV broadcasts of those teams, as well as streaming them for free in those local markets as they negotiate lower deals with cable companies. It’s not yet clear if fans in blacked-out markets would be able to access those streams in the short-term. If deals are reached, the league plans to offer over-the-top service for around $15 per month. As Kosman notes, that’s lower than some other streaming deals, with the Red Sox charging $29.99 per month. The league also already tried to acquire the rights to all 14 teams currently controlled by Diamond but were turned down. Those clubs are the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins.

A similar situation has arisen with Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns AT&T SportsNet and is a minority owner of Root Sports. It was reported last month that Warner was planning to get out of the RSN business, which would have implications for the Rockies, Astros and Pirates, though not the Mariners. Warner only owns 40% of Root Sports Seattle with the Mariners owning the other 60%. Kosman’s report indicates the league plans to take over those broadcasts eventually as well, though not by Opening Day.

This is a fluid situation and many of the details are still being worked out, but it’s possible there is a sea change approaching in how Major League Baseball delivers its broadcasts to its fans. Most out-of-market games are available to paying subscribers via MLB TV, though these RSN deals have always taken precedent, leading to blackouts that prevent fans from watching their local club on the platform. Many fans have been critical of the way these blackouts are applied, with some subscribers saying that their home is covered by various overlapping blackout areas. The people of Iowa, for instance, have often complained that they can’t watch games featuring the Cubs, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Royals or Brewers. That’s an extreme example but highlights the sorts of issues with the current system. Manfred has expressed a desire to move to a new system that would allow customers to purchase broadcasts regardless of where they are, though it’s unclear how long it would take to get such a model in place.

Whenever that new system is in place, it will also have implications for the finances for teams. These RSN deals have long been a significant source of club revenue that seems to now be drying up. Streaming will present new revenues sources, of course, and already has. The league has previously agreed to lucrative deals with streaming platforms like Apple and NBC and may strike other deals in the future.

For now, it seems the immediate concern is making sure that the broadcasts for the 2023 season are maintained. Kosman reports that the league plans to retain current local announcers for any broadcasts that it takes over and it doesn’t seem as though there are any current concerns of games being missed. Assuming the league is successful in all of these plans, it’s possible that fans won’t notice much difference in their baseball consumption here this year, but the field may be wide open for changes down the line.

Nick Senzel Not Expected To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Reds outfielder Nick Senzel is likely to open the 2023 campaign on the injured list, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The former second overall pick has been delayed this spring after an offseason spent recovering from toe surgery.

Nightengale notes that while there hasn’t been any setback, the Reds are taking things cautiously in Senzel’s ramp-up. He has yet to get into a Spring Training game and isn’t expected to log any exhibition action this week either. Senzel has been taking at-bats in simulated games at Reds’ camp but he’s yet to progress to full speed running or defensive work.

Senzel spent most of the offseason in a walking boot. He’d initially fractured a toe on his left foot last September when he collided with a wall trying to track down a fly ball. The initial expectation was that the issue would resolve itself via rehab. That proved not to be the case, and Senzel underwent surgery in mid-November. The club indicated at the time he was likely to be ready for the start of Spring Training, though he’s apparently progressed a little slower from the surgery than initially anticipated.

Still, it doesn’t appear as though the Reds are anticipating the absence dragging too deep into meaningful games. Assuming Senzel starts the season on the IL, they’ll have a number of outfield options who could take on some extra at-bats in the early going. TJ Friedl, Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild are all capable of manning center field and could battle for reps. That’s also true of rookie Michael Siani, who got into his first nine MLB games late last season after Senzel first went down. Cincinnati optioned Siani to Triple-A Louisville yesterday, though, so it doesn’t seem he’s in consideration for an Opening Day roster spot.

Once he’s able to return to action, Senzel figures to assume the regular center field role. It’s something of a make-or-break season for the Tennessee product, who carries a career .240/.303/.360 line in parts of four big leagues campaigns. Senzel reached arbitration for the first time this offseason and is controllable via that process through 2025.

Injury Notes: Walker, Vespi, Votto

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The Cardinals got a bit of a scare when Jordan Walker appeared to injure his shoulder while sliding into second base during yesterday’s spring contest. However, after some examination, it seems like Walker is fine. “I’m good. I’m fine. I’m going to go hit after this (meeting). …I knew it wasn’t anything serious,” Walker said to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Walker did not have an MRI and will take batting practice today, per John Denton of MLB.com.

The fact that Walker is fine will surely be welcome news to the Cards and their fans. Though he doesn’t turn 21 until May, he’s one of the top prospects in the league and is pushing for a spot on the Opening Day roster. He spent all of last year in Double-A, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 119 games at that level. His .306/.388/.510 batting line was 28% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

A natural third baseman, Walker has been moved to the outfield due to the Nolan Arenado-shaped obstacle at the hot corner. Now Walker will be looking to crack an outfield mix consisting of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson.

Some other health notes from around the league…

  • Orioles left-hander Nick Vespi tells Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner that he’s scheduled to pitch tomorrow. The southpaw underwent surgery to repair a hernia in January and has been held out of spring action until now. Vespi made his MLB debut last year and posted a 4.10 ERA over 25 appearances, striking out 25% of batters faced, walking 7.1% of them and getting grounders at a 42.7% clip. It’s possible that Vespi could take his game to another level, as he also made 26 Triple-A appearances last year without allowing an earned run and even better rate stats. If Vespi is back to health, he should slot into the club’s left-handed relief mix next to Cionel Pérez and Keegan Akin.
  • The Reds announced their lineup for today’s Spring Training game and it features Joey Votto batting second and playing first base. This will be his first Cactus League game of the year, as he’s been working his way back from August shoulder surgery. Votto spoke about his rehab in January, expressing confidence in his ability to get back to 100% health at some point, although he wasn’t sure if that would be at the start of spring. Though he’s missed the first handful of spring contests, he’ll now be back on the field with over two weeks to go until Opening Day. This will be Votto’s 17th year for the Reds and the final guaranteed season of the $225MM extension he signed back in 2012. The 39-year-old will make $25MM this year and then the club has a $20MM option for 2024 with a $7MM buyout. Votto struggled last year before the surgery, hitting .205/.319/.370 for a wRC+ of 92. But the year prior, he launched 36 home runs and had a much stronger line of .266/.375/.563, 139 wRC+.

Mariners Notes: Castillo, Marlowe, Larsen

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The Mariners made one of the biggest splashes of last summer’s trade deadline when they brought in Luis Castillo from the Reds. The deal sent out four prospects, including two players generally regarded among the top 100 minor league talents in Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. At the time, Castillo was in his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, but the M’s foreclosed any chance of him departing anytime soon. In September, the righty signed a five-year, $108MM extension that runs through 2027.

Castillo recently looked back on the pair of transactions, telling Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer he’d initially hoped to sign a long-term deal to stay in Cincinnati. “I can’t really say anything because that’s obviously negotiations between the team and my agent,” he told Nightengale via interpreter. “Of course, I would’ve liked to stay. I had a family there and was there quite some time.” The two-time All-Star added he acclimated to Seattle more quickly than he’d anticipated, however, pointing to the presence of former Cincinnati teammates Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker on the Mariners roster.

The Reds and Castillo had discussed extension parameters before the trade, though general manager Nick Krall told reporters after the swap that the sides hadn’t been close. That wasn’t surprising, as Cincinnati has gone into a rebuild over the past couple seasons and shipped out a number of big leaguers for further off young talent. Seattle is firmly in win-now mode, with Castillo joining Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in a strong front four.

In other situations out of Seattle:

  • Outfield prospect Cade Marlowe recently suffered a right oblique strain, he told reporters this afternoon (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 25-year-old described the strain as very mild but will soon meet with training staff to determine a recovery plan. Even minor oblique strains can sideline players for multiple weeks, so the injury could delay Marlowe’s big league debut. A left-handed hitter, he raked at a .291/.380/.483 clip with 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases through 120 Double-A contests last season. Marlowe secured a late-season call to Triple-A and garnered some consideration for a depth role at the MLB level headed into the postseason. That never transpired, though Marlowe was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and figures to debut at some point during the upcoming campaign. Seattle has Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández locked into two outfield spots, with Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock presumably set for a platoon in the final position. The M’s will already be without Taylor Trammell well into the season after he underwent hand surgery last month.
  • There’s another injury further down the outfield depth chart. Divish tweets that non-roster outfielder Jack Larsen fractured a hamate bone in his hand and will undergo surgery. The 28-year-old Larsen spent most of last season in Double-A, where he hit .269/.371/.407 with an excellent 13.6% walk percentage across 528 plate appearances. He earned the briefest of big league promotions, appearing in one game and striking out in his only MLB at-bat. Seattle ran him through outright waivers in August, keeping him in the upper minors without a 40-man roster spot. Larsen wasn’t likely in consideration for an Opening Day role but he’d have served as a depth possibility if healthy. He’ll surely start the season on the minor league injured list now.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

Reds Add Chase Anderson To Major League Camp

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The Reds’ original minor league deal with Chase Anderson last month did not contain an invite to Major League spring training, but Cincinnati announced today that he’s now been added to big league camp. Furthermore, manager David Bell tells Reds beat writers that Anderson is in the mix for a spot in the big league bullpen or rotation (Twitter link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com).

Anderson, 35, spent part of the 2022 season in the Reds organization as well, though he was hit hard in 24 innings, yielding 17 runs on 17 hits and 15 walks. He fanned 23 of 103 opponents (22.3%) but posted the worst walk rate of his career as well (14.6%). Anderson was also with the Triple-A affiliates for the Rays and Tigers in 2022, logging a combined 4.50 ERA in 80 innings.

The past three seasons, in general, have been a struggle for Anderson — at least at the MLB level. However, from 2014-19 he was a solid mid-rotation hurler, pitching to a combined 3.94 ERA in 857 innings between the D-backs and the Brewers.

The Reds have traded away most of their established pitchers in recent seasons and are now left with a staff short on experience. The rotation figures to be fronted by three young hurlers who just debuted last year in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. The favorites for the final two spots are Luis Cessa and Luke Weaver. The former has primarily been a reliever in the majors and only recently made the switch to the rotation, while the latter has been a starter but struggled so much that he got bumped to a bullpen role last year.

In the bullpen, Tejay Antone and Tony Santillan seem slated to being the season on the injured list, potentially opening up a couple of spots back there. Anderson has been more of a starter than a reliever but could potentially help the Reds out by providing a veteran presence for either role.

Rockies To Sign Mike Moustakas

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12:02PM: Moustakas isn’t being considered for second base duty, Harding tweets.  In other Twitter links, Harding shared some comments from Moustakas, who said “I finally feel good” in the wake of his injuries, and he didn’t want to sign anywhere until he was closer to full health.  The Moose was non-committal about the idea of accepting a minor league assignment to Triple-A if he didn’t make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, saying “that’s something we’ll talk about if it happens.”

8:44AM: The Rockies have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran infielder Mike Moustakas, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Moustakas is represented by the Boras Corporation, and he became a free agent after being released by the Reds in early January.

Assuming Moustakas makes Colorado’s roster, the Rockies will only owe him the Major League minimum salary.  The Reds will be responsible for the rest of the $22MM salary Moustakas is slated to earn in 2023, as per the four-year, $64MM deal he signed with Cincinnati during the 2019-20 offseason.  The Moose will earn $18MM in salary, and the Reds are also on the hook for a $4MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2024 season.

It makes for a pretty low-risk experiment for a Rockies team that is suddenly short on infielders, given how Brendan Rodgers seems likely to miss most or all of the 2023 season while recovering from a dislocated shoulder.  With surgery a distinct possibility for Rodgers, Colorado was aiming to fill his second base spot by moving Ryan McMahon over from third base, except Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Moustakas is now being tabbed to fill in at the keystone.  This plan would allow the Rox to keep McMahon at third base, and keep second-year players Nolan Jones and Elehuris Montero (who were lined up to take over at the hot corner) in backup roles.

Moustakas has played 613 2/3 big league innings as a second baseman, almost entirely in 2019-20 with the Brewers and Reds.  While he was a passable option at the position, public defensive metrics rated Moustakas below average, with a -0.9 UZR/150, -4 Defensive Runs Saved, and -2 Outs Above Average.  There isn’t an easy way for Rodgers to be replaced, naturally, but it represents something of a curious move for Colorado to target Moustakas as an answer given how other more experienced middle infielders were available in free agency, or on the trade market.

That said, Moustakas comes at a far lesser financial cost than most other options, and it could be that Colorado simply didn’t want too much of a lineup shuffle given McMahon’s defensive prowess at third base.  With Opening Day still weeks away, the Rockies’ plans might yet still change, as Moustakas can theoretically fit at several other spots around the infield.  His left-handed bat might factor into the Rockies’ plans at first base and DH, since C.J. Cron and Sean Bouchard are both right-handed hitters.

While Moustakas is a good fit on paper, however, it remains to be seen what version of the Moose the Rockies are getting as he enters his age-34 season.  Moustakas was plagued by injuries (a heel contusion and a calf strain) over his last two years in Cincinnati, resulting in a mediocre .212/.289/.356 slash line in 491 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season.  With those two sub-replacement level seasons cratering his trade value, the Reds opted to simply release Moustakas heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract, eating his salary and opening up more playing time as Cincinnati continues its rebuild.

Prior to those injury-shortened 2021-22 seasons, Moustakas was a solid performer for the Royals, Brewers, and Reds from 2015-20, hitting .262/.326/.490 with 138 homers over 2707 plate appearances (good for a 113 wRC+).  The Moose was named to three All-Star games during that stretch, and he was also a big part of Kansas City’s World Series championship team in 2015.

While staying healthy is naturally the key to any hope for a rebound season, Moustakas’ move to Coors Field might help reinvigorate his bat.  The new defensive rules would seemingly help given how Moustakas faced shifts 81 percent of the time in 2022, though his production against shifts (in the Statcast era) has fluctuated heavily, with some seasons of better production hitting into shifts than against a regular fielding alignment.  If anything, the new defensive rules might put more pressure on Moustakas from a second base perspective, as he’ll now be asked to cover more ground in the field.

The Rockies have now made two veteran additions in as many days, between the Moustakas signing and their one-year deal yesterday with left-handed reliever Brad Hand.  It’s a quick pivot for the team, who learned earlier this week about Rodgers and the strong possibility that reliever Lucas Gilbreath will need Tommy John surgery.

Reds’ Justin Dunn To Miss Start Of 2023 Season

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Reds right-hander Justin Dunn “will be shut down for a couple of months” in order to recover from inflammation in the right subscapularis muscle of his rotator cuff, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  The shutdown comes on the recommendation of a specialist, and it doesn’t appear as though surgery will be required.

While that counts as good news for Dunn, it will mark the third straight season that he has missed considerable time due to shoulder problems.  The result was only 50 1/3 innings for Dunn with the Mariners in 2021, and then 31 frames in 20222, his first season in Cincinnati.  With the injuries obviously playing a factor, Dunn posted an underwhelming 4.65 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate, and 12.9% walk rate over those 81 1/3 combined innings.

As Dunn is now entering his age-27 season and his fifth MLB campaign, he has yet to really lift off following his selection as the 19th overall pick of the 2016 draft.  The Mets were Dunn’s original team, but the righty was included as part of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster trade with Seattle in December 2018, and was then part of another prominent deal last March when the Reds sent Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to the Mariners.

Though cutting payroll was the most significant factor in that trade from Cincinnati’s perspective, obtaining a former top-100 prospect and a big league-ready starter in Dunn obviously helped the Reds sign off on that particular swap.  More than a year after that deal, Dunn’s future as a potential member of the Reds rotation is still uncertain, which isn’t ideal for either Dunn or a team going through a rebuilding period.

While there’s some fluidity involved in Dunn’s recovery, if he doesn’t get back to baseball activities until May, he might not be fully ramped up and ready to start games until perhaps late June or even into the second half of the season.  It is possible Cincinnati could bring Dunn back as a reliever in order to shorten his recovery time, just to get him into action and get some innings under his belt in 2023, before then stretching him back out as a starter next spring.  More will be known when Dunn is re-examined down the road, and if there are any setbacks in his recovery, surgery might yet be an option as an answer to his ongoing shoulder injuries.

The Reds’ Numerous Outfield Possibilities

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The Reds go into the 2023 campaign looking at another evaluation year. Cincinnati is coming off a 100-loss season and didn’t make many immediate upgrades over the winter. It’ll be a non-competitive season, one that sees a number of unproven players look to carve out longer-term roles.

No area of the roster is more wide open than the outfield. Cincinnati has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Of that group, only offseason signee Wil Myers has a lengthy big league track record. Myers had some ups and downs as a member of the Padres, showcasing strong power potential at times but undercutting it with lofty strikeout totals at others. Signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal, he’ll surely receive regular playing time either in the corner outfield or at first base. The franchise will hope he’ll hit well enough to draw some attention from contenders at the trade deadline.

Everyone else in the Cincinnati outfield is hoping to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. It’s a similar group to that of the rebuilding Athletics — one that has a glut of upper level options but very little in the way of established big league production.

Jake Fraley, 27, two minor league options remaining

Fraley is probably the favorite for regular reps among the group of unproven players. Acquired from the Mariners in last spring’s Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal, Fraley put up an impressive .259/.344/.468 line with 12 home runs over his first 247 plate appearances as a Red. Most of that work came in the season’s second half, as he lost a good portion of the beginning of the year to right knee issues.

The lefty-swinging Fraley also posted solid offensive marks in a limited role in Seattle the previous year. He carries a .235/.348/.419 line with 21 homers and 16 doubles in 145 games over the past couple seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard but makes contact at a decent clip and has an extremely patient offensive approach. Fraley has limited experience in center and right field (rating poorly at both stops); he’s gotten solid reviews from public defensive metrics for his left field glovework.

Nick Senzel, 27, three options remaining

A former #2 overall pick, Senzel was a consensus top prospect before reaching the majors in 2019. He hasn’t met those expectations thus far, struggling to a .240/.303/.360 line in 1036 career plate appearances. A natural third baseman, Senzel moved primarily to center field at the MLB level and has gotten middling to well below-average reviews for his glove from various metrics.

Senzel has shown above-average contact skills at the big league level, though he hasn’t made much of a power impact. Despite his early-career struggles, the Reds have maintained throughout the offseason they plan to give him another crack at seizing the center field job. It feels like a make-or-break season, with Senzel now into his arbitration seasons and having performed below replacement level thus far.

The Reds are obviously still hopeful he can take a long-awaited step forward. He’ll first need to get healthy. Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe over the offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote this afternoon that he’s begun swinging a bat in simulated games at the team’s spring complex. He has yet to progress to full speed running.

TJ Friedl, 27, two options remaining

Friedl has been one of the more interesting outfielders in the Cincinnati farm system for a few seasons. He got a brief big league look late in 2021 and received his first extended action last season. In 258 plate appearances across 72 games, he hit at a league average clip: .240/.314/.436 with eight home runs, a modest 7.8% walk percentage and a tiny 15.5% strikeout rate.

The left-handed hitter had more resounding success over a similar stretch of time for Triple-A Louisville. Friedl posted a .278/.371/.468 line with eight homers, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout percentage over 241 trips with the Bats. That mostly aligns with his longstanding prospect reputation. Friedl doesn’t have much power but he has a solid feel for the strike zone and puts the ball in play with regularity. He can play all three outfield positions, though advanced metrics weren’t enthused with his first MLB work on the grass. Friedl has typically been regarded by prospect evaluators as a high-probability fourth/fifth outfielder. The upcoming campaign could be his best opportunity to outperform that expectation.

Will Benson, 24, three options remaining

Benson, acquired from the Guardians last month, has a polar opposite approach from Friedl. He’s also a left-handed batter but boasts huge power upside with a long track record of lofty strikeout totals. A former first-round draftee whose prospect shine had dimmed, Benson put himself back on the map with arguably a career-best season last year.

In 89 games with Cleveland’s top minor league affiliate, he hit .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs. Benson walked a massive 18.7% clip — par for the course throughout his career — and struck out in an average 22.7% of his trips. It was the first time he’d posted a strikeout rate below 28% at any stop and only his second season fanning in fewer than 30% of his PA’s. Benson didn’t produce in a 28-game MLB cameo and was still buried on Cleveland’s outfield depth chart, but his step forward intrigued the Reds enough to take a look. He’s best suited for right field and can cover center on occasion.

Nick Solak, 28, one option remaining

Another one-time top prospect, Solak has had some inconsistent performances the past few years with the Rangers. He had an excellent 33-game debut in 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, the righty-swinging Solak carries a modest .246/.317/.354 line in 839 MLB plate appearances. Longstanding concerns about his defense at second base eventually pushed him to left field, where he has gotten subpar grades from public statistics.

To his credit, Solak hasn’t allowed his MLB inconsistency to bleed into his performance in the minor leagues. Optioned to Triple-A by Texas last season, he put up an impressive .278/.371/.489 mark with 10 longballs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout percentage in 57 contests. The Rangers never seemed to trust him enough to give him an extended look despite woeful MLB production from their left fielders, though. Texas dealt him to Cincinnati for cash immediately after the season ended.

Michael Siani, 23, three options remaining

A former fourth-round pick, Siani has spent the past few seasons ranked among the middle tiers of the Cincinnati farm system. Praised for his speed and defensive acumen in center field, he went 49 for 61 as a basestealer over 121 Double-A games last year. His overall .252/.351/.404 line with 12 home runs at that level was solid if unexceptional for a 22-year-old. Siani earned cups of coffee in both Louisville and Cincinnati towards the end of the season.

It stands to reason Cincinnati will start Siani back in Triple-A given his lack of experience there. Baseball America ranked him the organization’s #19 prospect this winter, projecting him as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Stuart Fairchild, 26, one option remaining

A former Cincinnati second-round pick, Fairchild was dealt to the Diamondbacks at the 2020 trade deadline. He made his MLB debut with Arizona the following season, getting into 12 games. The Wake Forest product bounced around via minor trade and waivers last year, playing in four different organizations. He finished the season back with his original club when the Reds nabbed him off waivers from the Giants in June.

Fairchild played in 38 games for Cincinnati, connecting on five home runs in 99 trips. He struck out 29 times while drawing only eight walks but showed intriguing power. That was also the case in Triple-A, where he combined for a .258/.353/.490 line in 53 contests despite the constant uniform changes. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.

Chad Pinder, 30, not on 40-man roster

Pinder, a longtime member of the Athletics, signed a non-roster pact with a major league Spring Training invitation this winter. He’s coming off a .235/.263/.385 showing in 111 games for Oakland. The right-handed hitting Pinder has some power and a decent track record of hitting lefty pitching. He’s versatile enough to cover anywhere on the infield in addition to his corner outfield work. Pinder seems to have a strong chance at securing a bench role given that flexibility and Cincinnati’s fairly left-handed outfield mix. As a major league free agent who signed a minor league contract, he’ll have an automatic opt-out opportunity five days before the start of the regular season if he’s not added to the MLB roster.

Overall

Aside from Pinder, former highly-regarded prospect Allan Cerda and KBO veteran Henry Ramos are also in camp on non-roster contracts. Neither looks to have a strong chance at cracking the Opening Day roster considering the number of alternative outfield options for the front office and coaching staff to evaluate.

Myers is the only member of the current group who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, although Pinder couldn’t be optioned if he cracks the MLB roster. That could set the stage for plenty of shuffling over the next six months. The organization is surely hoping two or three players from the group will cement themselves as everyday options based on their 2023 production, lending some clarity to the longer-term mix.

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