Reds Disinclined To Trade Jonathan India
Reds second baseman Jonathan India is amidst a bounceback season. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year had a down ’22 campaign. He spent some time on the injured list with hamstring issues and only hit .249/.327/.378 in 103 games.
The first two months of this season have more closely resembled India’s rookie form. He entered play Thursday with a .282/.369/.426 batting line over 244 plate appearances. His 15 doubles are one shy of last year’s mark in a little over half the playing time. He has a modest five home runs but is reliably reaching base at the top of the Cincinnati lineup. He’s avoided the IL and been in the starting lineup for all but one of the Reds’ games thus far.
While he’s not hitting for a ton of over-the-fence power, India has taken a marked step forward in his strike zone coverage. He’s always been a disciplined, high-contact hitter and he’s taken that to career-best heights. India’s walking at a quality 10.7% rate and has cut his strikeouts to a personal-low 18% clip. He’s chasing fewer pitches outside the strike zone than ever and making contact on a career-high 83.7% of his swings. He’s also hitting the ball a fair bit harder than he did last season.
Other clubs have unsurprisingly taken note. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning the Reds are receiving trade interest in India but aren’t anxious to move him. That’s not to say they’re completely opposed to talks — few players around the league are truly “untouchable” in negotiations — but reflects the lack of urgency for Cincinnati to make a deal.
India broke camp in 2021, giving him exactly two years of big league service entering this season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration at the end of the year and isn’t slated to reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. The Reds have very little money on the books beyond this season and won’t have any issue accommodating India’s arbitration salaries.
There’s a straightforward case for Cincinnati to keep him around. Even in a weak NL Central, the Reds aren’t expected to compete this season. Their 26-29 record is a little better than most outside observers likely anticipated, though they’re still a longshot to hang in the playoff mix all year. Given their post-’23 payroll flexibility and a farm system with plenty of upper minors talent, the Reds could more seriously angle for postseason contention as soon as next year.
As arguably the club’s best position player, India could be a significant part of those efforts. It’s not entirely outlandish for others teams to touch base with general manager Nick Krall and his front office, though. The strength of Cincinnati’s minor league pipeline is the middle infield, leading the Reds to look into trading from that depth to address other areas of the farm system over the offseason.
Former first round pick Matt McLain reached the majors last month after tearing up Triple-A pitching. He’s hit the ground running as the primary shortstop, posting a .361/.426/.541 line over his first 68 plate appearances. Elly De La Cruz, in the conversation for the top prospect in baseball, likely isn’t far behind while carrying a .303/.401/.648 slash as a 21-year-old in his first crack at Triple-A. Noelvi Marte — arguably the next-best prospect in the system — is hitting .295/.369/.500 while playing shortstop in Double-A. Edwin Arroyo isn’t hitting well in High-A but entered the year as a top 100 caliber prospect and is expected to stick at shortstop himself.
India is a productive hitter but has drawn below-average defensive grades from metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average throughout his career. There’s no reason for the Reds to move him off the keystone imminently. Prospect promotions could alter that calculus in the coming months or next year.
Still, the Reds could see any India trade offers as putting the cart before the horse. They opened the season with Jose Barrero and Kevin Newman as their shortstop tandem. Talented as the upper minors options are, none of them have more than a two-week MLB track record.
It’s also common for middle infield prospects to branch out to other positions as they approach the MLB level. McLain played some center field at UCLA and could eventually be an option in the outfield. De La Cruz and Marte are both larger-framed shortstop prospects, leading some evaluators to question whether either might be a better fit for third base down the line.
Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL Central
We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.
This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.
Chicago Cubs
- Kyle Hendricks: $16MM team option ($1.5MM buyout)
Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.
- Yan Gomes: $6MM team option ($1MM buyout)
Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.
- Brad Boxberger: $5MM mutual option ($800K buyout)
Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.
Cincinnati Reds
- Joey Votto: $20MM team option ($7MM buyout)
Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.
- Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.
- Curt Casali: $4MM mutual option ($750K buyout)
Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Justin Wilson: $2.5MM team option ($150K buyout)
Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Jarlín García: $3.25MM team option (no buyout)
García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Paul DeJong: $12.5MM team option ($2MM buyout)
Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.
The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.
DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.
Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan
With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA
Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.
Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA
Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721
Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.
Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA
Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.
Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.
Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA
The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).
Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Reds Outright Silvino Bracho
Reds reliever Silvino Bracho went unclaimed on outright waivers over the weekend, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. The right-hander had been designated for assignment when the club promoted relief prospect Eduardo Salazar.
Bracho signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati over the winter. He spent a couple weeks in the majors after the Reds selected his contract in mid-May. He’d pitched reasonably well for Triple-A Louisville prior to the promotion, allowing only five runs in 14 1/3 innings. Bracho struck out 15 of 57 batters faced while issuing only four walks. Those solid Triple-A results didn’t translate to big league success in his brief look in Cincinnati. He walked five against four punchouts while allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings.
The 30-year-old Bracho has now appeared in parts of seven major league campaigns. He spent the bulk of his career with the Diamondbacks but has bounced around since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. He was briefly on the MLB rosters with the Red Sox and Braves last season but only appeared in three games for Atlanta. As he has thus far in 2023, Bracho had a strong Triple-A showing last year. He worked to a 2.67 ERA with a lofty 30.4% strikeout rate and excellent 4.3% walk percentage across 57 1/3 frames.
Bracho has gone unclaimed on waivers multiple times in his career. That gives him the right to elect minor league free agency and explore other opportunities if he doesn’t want to accept the assignment back to Louisville.
Reds Place Wil Myers On 15-Day IL, Recall Will Benson
The Reds announced a series of roster moves ahead of this afternoon’s game against the Cubs as they placed outfielder Wil Myers on the 10-day injured list due to a kidney stone and activated right-hander Fernando Cruz from the 15-day IL. In corresponding moves, the club recalled outfielder Will Benson from Triple-A and and optioned right-hander Alan Busenitz to Triple-A.
Myers, 32, signed a one-year deal with the Reds this past offseason to act as the club’s regular right fielder. That pact has hardly gone accordingly to plan so far, however, as Myers has slashed a brutal .189/.257/.283 in 141 plate appearances across 37 game this season. Prior to signing with the Reds during the offseason, Myers had spent the past eight seasons as a member of the Padres, slashing a solid .254/.330/.452 with a wRC+ of 111 in 888 games with San Diego.
While the Reds were surely hoping for such a similar performance this season to help steady their offense, Myers’s struggles have helped contribute to an offense that ranks in the bottom five across baseball in terms of slugging percentage thanks to an offense that struggles to find production outside of TJ Friedl, Jonathan India, and Spencer Steer.
In Myers’s place, the Reds have recalled Benson, who the club acquired from the Guardians this past offseason to shore up their outfield mix. A former first round pick who turns 25 next month, Benson has a great deal of upside, though his results have not matched it to this point. in 87 MLB plate appearances so far in his career, Benson has slashed just .138/.198/.150 with a wRC+ of -1, though he sports a far more palatable .243/.396/.464 slash line in 641 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Benson figures to mix into the outfield for the Reds alongside Friedl, Jake Fraley, and Stuart Fairchild while Myers is on the shelf.
Joining Benson in returning to the active roster is Cruz, a 33-year-old journeyman who made his major league debut with the Reds last year. Since then, the right-hander has posted a 3.81 ERA with a 3.12 FIP in 28 1/3 innings of work, good for a 124 ERA+. That ERA is inflated by a brutal stretch of five appearances prior to Cruz’s placement on the injured list, during which he allowed eight runs on eleven hits in just 7 1/3 innings. As Cruz attempts to get back on track, he’ll join a Reds bullpen that has been a bright spot for the club this season, ranking top 10 in baseball in FIP and third in terms of fWAR.
Making room for Cruz on the roster is Busenitz, who heads to Triple-A after just pitching just four innings for the big league club. The 32-year-old righty allowed two runs in four innings of work while striking out three. Busenitz figures to act as depth for Cincinnati going forward at the Triple-A level, where he sports a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings of work.
Reds Sign Shea Spitzbarth To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed right-hander Shea Spitzbarth to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the club’s Complex League affiliate for now but will presumably move to a higher level after getting some work in.
Spitzbarth, 28, has five innings of major league experience under his belt, which came with the Pirates in 2021. He recorded a 3.60 ERA in that brief time despite a miniscule 4.5% strikeout rate, getting helped out by a .176 batting average on balls in play and 89.3% strand rate. He spent the majority of that year in Triple-A, tossing 46 2/3 innings with a 2.12 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate.
He was outrighted at season’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Tigers for 2022. He threw 53 2/3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.85 ERA, though the numbers under the hood weren’t as impressive. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate were both a few ticks worse than league average. A .214 batting average on balls in play and 81.7% strand rate kept the ERA down but led to a 4.65 FIP.
The Reds have actually had a strong relief unit overall this year, as their collective bullpen ERA of 3.71 puts them in the top 10 league wide. However, their depth is getting tested by injuries, with each of Tejay Antone, Fernando Cruz, Derek Law, Casey Legumina, Reiver Sanmartin and Tony Santillan current on the IL. Spitzbarth will add some non-roster depth and try to earn his way back to the majors. If he does so, he still has options and less than a year of service time, which would give the Reds the option of retaining him as a cheap depth piece for an extended period of time.
Connor Overton Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Reds righty Connor Overton‘s exploratory elbow surgery ultimately resulted in him requiring Tommy John surgery, manager David Bell announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). It’s a worst-case scenario for the 29-year-old righty, who’d spent a month on the injured list with an elbow strain but experienced a setback that led to this morning’s operation. He’ll miss the rest of the 2023 season and a good portion of the 2024 campaign as well.
The 29-year-old Overton opened the season in the Reds’ rotation but was blasted for 14 runs on 19 hits and seven walks in just 11 innings of work through three starts. It was a far cry from the 2022 season, when Overton logged a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work across six appearances (four starts) for Cincinnati. An 11.3% strikeout rate and tiny .204 average on balls in play always made some regression likely, but the extent of his 2023 struggle was still alarming. The revelation of a major elbow injury quite possibly helps explain some of Overton’s immense struggles.
Selected in the 15th round of the 2014 draft by the Marlins, Overton has spent time with six MLB organizations — including big league work with the Reds, Pirates and Blue Jays — and also suited up for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the independent Atlantic League. In 59 1/3 big league innings, he’s posted a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.
Overton might’ve gotten a lengthier look in the Reds’ rotation this season, as Cincinnati entered the year relying heavily on young arms with minimal MLB track records. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all had some success in last year’s rookie campaigns, but each has struggled to varying extents in his sophomore effort. Veteran Luis Cessa opened the season in the rotation, but he’s already been designated for assignment and released. Offseason signee Luke Weaver has made six starts and currently sports a 6.54 ERA. Cincinnati has recently turned to journeyman right-hander Ben Lively for a pair of starts and is also taking its first look at prospect Brandon Williamson. Suffice it to say, there would’ve been ample opportunity for a healthy Overton, whether he struggled or not.
Instead, he’ll spend the remainder of the season on the injured list. It’s a small consolation when considering that the surgery cost him an opportunity to establish himself as a credible big league pitcher, but he’ll accrue Major League service time and pay for the remainder of the season. That’ll take him past two years of service. Overton won’t be arbitration-eligible next winter, but his spot on the 40-man roster will still be in jeopardy, as the Reds would have to carry him on the roster all winter before they could recoup that spot by placing him on the 60-day IL in spring training 2024. If he’s outrighted off the roster at season’s end, it’s certainly possible they’d have interest in re-signing him on a minor league pact.
Reds Select Eduardo Salazar, Designate Silvino Bracho
The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of pitching prospect Eduardo Salazar from Triple-A Louisville and designated righty Silvino Bracho for assignment in a corresponding move.
Entering the 2023 season, the 25-year-old Salazar was a generally nondescript prospect in the Reds’ system. He’d never cracked the organization’s top 30 at Baseball America and only drew a cursory mention as a potential multi-inning reliever in Eric Longenhagen’s 2022 overview of the Reds’ system over at FanGraphs — due largely to a velocity spike and improvement on his breaking ball.
Following a move from a starting role to short relief, Salazar has flipped the narrative surrounding him in a substantial way in 2023. He’s combined for 17 2/3 innings of 0.51 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A, whiffing a massive 35.2% of his opponents against an outstanding 4.2% walk rate. Salazar hasn’t given up a home run this season and has induced grounders at an enormous 63.2% rate.
Cincinnati relievers rank 10th in the Majors with a 3.72 ERA and are fourth in total innings pitched (193 2/3), thanks largely to a young starting rotation that has struggled to keep runs off the board and pitch deep into games. Reds starters have a 6.29 ERA that ranks second-worst in baseball, and only the Rays — who’ve frequently used openers and bullpen games — have gotten fewer innings from the rotation.
Much of the relief corps’ success is attributable to strong performances from Buck Farmer, Ian Gibaut, Alex Young and especially closer Alexis Diaz. The Reds have also gotten nice contributions from Derek Law and Kevin Herget. On the whole, it’s a collection of journeymen, many of whom are experiencing their first taste of MLB success in simultaneous fashion. That coalescence has proven to be a godsend for the Reds and manager David Bell, but Salazar will hope to join Diaz as a homegrown product and success story for the team’s scouting and player development departments.
Bracho, 30, held opponents scoreless in three of his four outings — the lone exception being a three-run appearance against the Yankees in which he only recorded two outs. Overall, he pitched 5 1/3 innings with the Reds and only allowed two hits, though he walked more batters (five) than he struck out (four).
In 99 1/3 career innings, most of them spent with the D-backs, Bracho has a 4.89 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate against a 9.1% walk rate. He’s typically been homer-prone in his career (1.72 HR/9), but he had some success with Arizona in both 2015 and 2019. The Reds will have a week to trade Bracho, pass him through outright waivers, or release him. He has more than three years of Major League service time, so even if he goes unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis
Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701
Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.
To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.
Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709
I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.
Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426
Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.
The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.
Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA
A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.
Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631
Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.
Three More
Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.
Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).
Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.
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Reds’ Connor Overton To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Reds righty Connor Overton had, who’s been out since mid-April due to an elbow strain, had a setback in his recovery and will undergo exploratory elbow surgery to determine the root of his troubles, manager David Bell announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Olivia Ray of WLWT Cincinnati). Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer further adds that the surgery could very well end the righty’s season.
Overton, 29, appeared in six games for the 2022 Reds (four starts) and posted a sharp 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work. With just an 11.3% strikeout rate and a minuscule .204 batting average on balls in play contributing to that mark, Overton never seemed likely to sustain that level of success, but he regressed far more precipitously than the Reds had anticipated through his first three starts of the current campaign.
While Overton’s velocity remained consistent with its 2022 levels, he was clobbered for 14 runs on 19 hits (three of them homers) and seven walks in just 11 innings of work. Overton actually improved his strikeout rate a bit (to 16.4%) and more than doubled his swinging-strike rate (from 6% to 12.5%), but his elbow barked after just three starts and he’ll now face a lengthy absence.
Originally a 15th-round selection by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around the league on a series of minor league deals and also played with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers before landing with the Reds, his sixth affiliated organization, prior to the 2022 season. He’s posted sharp numbers in the upper minors — 2.45 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate in 91 Triple-A innings — but has yet to find much in the way of big league success. In 59 1/3 Major League innings between the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds, he has a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He’ll accrue big league service and pay while on the injured list, though his chances of lasting the entire 2023-24 offseason on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster take a big hit with news of this surgery.
Overton likely would’ve gotten a lengthier look in a rotation audition this season, but he’s now out of the picture for the foreseeable future. Cincinnati also subtracted veteran righty Luis Cessa from that mix when they released him last week. Overton joins lefty Nick Lodolo on the injured list, though Lodolo, who has a stress reaction in his tibia, isn’t looking at nearly as long an absence. The Reds are currently utilizing Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, rookie Brandon Williamson, journeyman Ben Lively and veteran offseason pickup Luke Weaver in the rotation. Top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s fanned 45.3% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A, could get a look at some point this summer as well.