Central Notes: Beltran, Lopez, Astros
On this day in 2005, Rick Ankiel of the Cardinals collected a base hit in his first Grapefruit League game as a position player after beginning his career as a pitcher. He'd later make it back to the Majors in 2007. On with a few links from MLB's Central divisions …
- Carlos Beltran drew interest from several teams this offseason but ultimately signed with the Cardinals because he wanted to play for a winning team with a grass home ballpark, and because the Redbirds offered him a no-trade clause, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Beltran was conflicted as to which team to sign with, writes Goold, but he ultimately settled on the Cards when his wife urged him to go wherever he'd be happy.
- Indians utility man Jose Lopez is impressing so far in camp and likes his odds of making the big league roster out of Spring Training, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Lopez signed a minor league deal with the Tribe this offseason and had offers from other teams: "A couple teams asked me to sign with them," Lopez said. "Cleveland had more opportunity. … They're giving me a chance, and now I'm fighting for a spot."
- The Astros have two players in camp under the scrutiny of being a Rule 5 picks in Marwin Gonzalez and Rhiner Cruz, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The chances of both players lasting on Houston's 25-man roster all season is pretty slim, something GM Jeff Luhnow touched on: "You lose a lot of flexibility by keeping the Rule 5 guys and that's something you have to put into the equation. … To keep two is something very few teams are able to do."
Quick Hits: Yankees, Orioles, Ramirez, Red Sox
Friday night linkage..
- Curtis Granderson might prove to be too pricey for the Yankees down the road, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Both the center fielder and Robinson Cano will be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season.
- Things remain quiet between the Angels and shortstop Erick Aybar when it comes to talks on a new deal, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. If they don’t work out a new contract with Aybar, the Halos could re-sign veteran Maicer Izturis after this season or turn the keys over to 22-year-old Jean Segura.
- Orioles General Manager Dan Duquette is grateful to have another shot in MLB, writes Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. Duquette left Boston with a reputation for being somewhat unapproachable but has returned in Baltimore determined to be more communicative.
- Marlins skipper Ozzie Guillen says that Hanley Ramirez has embraced third base despite early reports to the contrary, writes Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.
- Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider req’d) runs down seven players who he believes are poised to bounce back in 2012. Among those on the list are Ramirez, Yankees right-hander Phil Hughes, and Indians rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo.
- Reliever Chris Carpenter found his way to the Red Sox through the compensation agreement with the Cubs and one of the few people that can relate is former outfielder Randy Winn. Winn was shipped from the Rays to the Mariners in exchange for manager Lou Piniella and minor leaguer Antonio Perez.
AL Central Notes: Hafner, Verlander, Cabrera
Every AL Central team except the Royals has won the division at least once since 2007. Here are the latest AL Central links as the Tigers look to win back-to-back division titles for the first time since they won the 1934-35 pennants…
- The Indians are hoping for modest production from Travis Hafner in 2012, which will probably be his final season with the Indians, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. "If Travis can be a productive major-league hitter this year, we'll be happy," GM Chris Antonetti said.
- Justin Verlander and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports discussed the right-hander's newfound celebrity in a piece that's well worth reading. Verlander makes it clear that he loves Detroit, but admitted he’s thought about what playing in a bigger market would be like. “It would be fun, but hopefully I help turn Detroit into a major market,” Verlander said. “Other teams are major markets not just because of their fan base but because of the national fan base.”
- No talks about a new contract for Verlander have taken place, but he’s “open for conversation” with the Tigers. Verlander, who’s under team control through 2014, is intrigued by free agency.
- In this FOX Sports video, Morosi said the Tigers are realistic about Miguel Cabrera's limitations as a defender at third base, and seem committed to making the arrangement work.
- Tigers manager Jim Leyland recently joined Evan & Phillips on Sirius XM Radio and said he's willing to accept that Cabrera won't get to as many balls as Brandon Inge might.
The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis
The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston. Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.
Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer. First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful." James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together. Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole. He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus. That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation. When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player. For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like? Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"
Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator." Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential. Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.
The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me. We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point. Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office.
Cafardo On Jones, Nationals, Floyd, Indians, Red Sox
Agent Scott Boras told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he expects trade deadline activity to decrease because the superpowers in baseball are going to save money on the luxury tax and can’t spend it in the draft. Boras was in attendance for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and our own Tim Dierkes sat down for an interview with the super agent. Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..
- The Orioles' Adam Jones keeps popping up in trade discussions with the Nationals, but O's sources indicate that there’s very little chance he'll be dealt. The Nats are trying to figure out center field, and for the moment they’re content with using Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel. However, they will be scouting Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Peter Bourjos in spring training.
- White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd could be in play for the Blue Jays or Red Sox. The White Sox don’t appear eager to move Floyd, but GM Kenny Williams wouldn’t be shy if it brought him a decent bounty in return.
- The Indians will try to fill in for Grady Sizemore with Michael Brantley, but their scouts are looking for a center field option in the trade market.
- Free agent Adonis Garcia is drawing interest from several teams, but the Red Sox aren’t overly enamored, according to a team source.
- Roy Oswalt is still in play and later in camp the Red Sox could put on a full-court press for him.
- The Rays are looking for a catcher to back up Jose Molina and Boras may look to put Ivan Rodriguez in that spot.
- There seems to be concern that the Astros are shooting themselves in the foot by moving starter Brett Myers into the closer role as he is one of the veterans they have been trying to deal. Teams typically need innings-eaters over late-inning relievers.
- Cafardo wonders aloud if Terry Francona will land with the Mets when he resumes his managerial career.
Quick Hits: Walden, Indians, A’s, Appel, Molina
Here are some notes from around the majors…
- The Angels renewed the contract of closer Jordan Walden, the team announced. The Halos also agreed to terms with 21 other players on one-year deals for 2012.
- The Indians are "looking around for a left fielder" in the wake of Grady Sizemore's injury, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. With so many outfielders already in camp, the Tribe are likely looking for no more than another part-timer on a minor league contract.
- Bill Madden of the New York Daily News believes Major League Baseball won't allow the Athletics to move to San Jose. Madden doesn't think three-quarters of the teams would approve of violating the Giants' territorial rights to San Jose, quoting a baseball lawyer who says teams would be wary of voting for a measure that could cost them in the future. As an example, the Phillies, Mets and Yankees wouldn't be likely to vote against territorial rights since such votes be used as precedent for a team to someday move to New Jersey.
- Right-hander Mark Appel hasn't quite pitched up to expectations for Stanford this season, writes Baseball America's Conor Glassey. In particular, Appel's K/9 rate is lower than several recent high-drafted pitchers during their sophomore years. Appel is a contender to be the first overall pick in the June amateur draft.
- Yadier Molina's five-year, $75MM extension with the Cardinals was driven by the catcher's defense and leadership, reports MLB.com's Matthew Leach. "[The St. Louis pitchers] understand his value more than sabermetricians could ever start to pick it apart, and what other people inside the game even understand," said Cards manager Mike Matheny. "There's so many intangibles. You can't put numbers to the things that this guy does in helping this team win. And I think that's [exemplified by] two world championships since he's taken over behind the plate."
Indians Will Keep Eye Out For Sizemore Alternatives
The Indians lost Grady Sizemore for the next 2-3 months due to his recent back surgery, but GM Chris Antonetti told reporters (including MLB.com's Jordan Bastian) that he likes the team's in-house replacements (Twitter link). Antonetti acknowledged that he'll have scouts watching other clubs in Spring Training for possible alternatives, however.
With Sizemore out, Michael Brantley will step in as the everyday center fielder with Shin-Soo Choo and various left field candidates flanking him. The Indians signed Fred Lewis, Felix Pie, and Ryan Spilborghs to minor league contracts this offseason and already have Ezequiel Carrera, Aaron Cunningham, and Shelley Duncan on the 40-man roster. Scouting other clubs following Sizemore's injury seems to be little more than due diligence.
Quick Hits: Burnett, Sizemore, Posey, Yankees
Now that the calendar has flipped to March, Opening Day seems that much closer. Here are some links from around MLB, starting with a pair of injury updates…
- The Pirates announced that A.J. Burnett has an orbital fracture of his right eye and will require surgery. The club didn’t provide a timetable for the right-hander, who was acquired from the Yankees last month.
- The Indians announced that Grady Sizemore underwent a “minimally invasive low back procedure” and is expected to miss two to three months.
- Agent Jeff Berry told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that no discussions about a multiyear deal for Giants catcher Buster Posey are expected to take place before Opening Day. Posey hasn't played since last May 25th, so it's more likely that an extension would become a priority next offseason.
- Yankees managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner confirmed to reporters, including Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger, that he is intent on lowering payroll below $189MM by 2014 for luxury tax purposes (Twitter link).
Extension Updates: Garza, Kennedy, Gordon, Hamilton
The Cardinals and Yadier Molina are closing in on a five-year deal in the $70-75MM range. Here are more updates on extension talks around the league…
- The Cubs will sit down and discuss a deal with Matt Garza, GM Jed Hoyer told David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com. "We're hoping to get something worked out, but you never know and we'll keep it private when we do," Hoyer said. Garza also expressed enthusiasm about an extension, a possibility I discussed during the offseason.
- Ian Kennedy is open to a possible extension with the Diamondbacks, Steve Gilbert of MLB.comreports. The pre-arbitration eligible right-hander said agent Scott Boras hasn't discussed a deal with the team, as far as he knows.
- Asdrubal Cabrera said he doesn't want to jump from team to team and hopes to finish his career in Cleveland, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The Indians have discussed an extension with Cabrera, who is set to earn $4.55MM in 2012.
- When the Royals announced major contractual news yesterday, many assumed Alex Gordon had signed an extension. The outfielder says there's "nothing new" on that front, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. The extension went to catcher Salvador Perez, in case you missed it.
- Texas assistant GM Thad Levine joined Mike Ferrin and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio and said the Rangers and Josh Hamilton have a different idea of what a long-term deal would mean (via Bowden on Twitter).
- David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wonders if a five-year, $65MM extension might make sense for the Phillies and Shane Victorino right now. The outfielder is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2012 season.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs examines the Molina deal and decides that the Cardinals' decision looks better upon close examination. Cameron explains that Molina is a premium player, even though he's not signing at a bargain rate by any stretch.
Quick Hits: Cabrera, Marlins, Dodgers
The deadline for NHL teams to make trades in preparation for their playoff runs passed this afternoon. Baseball's deadline is five long months away, but we've got these links to keep you going in the meantime…
- The Indians are trying to sign Asdrubal Cabrera long-term, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. Cabrera told Nick Camino of WTAM 1100 that he and the Indians are "not on the same page right now" (Twitter link). The sides discussed a multiyear deal earlier in the offseason before avoiding arbitration with a one-year, $4.55MM contract.
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said he intends to own the club as long as he lives, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. “I love this team,” Loria said. The 71-year-old spent big on the likes of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle this offseason.
- In a piece at ESPN.com, Kevin Goldstein wonders how much top prospects Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Matt Moore would command on the open market.
- In this week's edition of Ask BA, Jim Callis of Baseball America explains that Miguel Sano of the Twins might be the best power prospect in the minor leagues were it not for Harper.
- Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache had a chance to be selected in the first round of this year's draft, but he injured his wrist diving for a ball, according to Jason A. Churchill of ESPN.com.
- Just seven groups remain in the mix to purchase the Dodgers, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Jackson breaks down the list, which includes St. Louis Rams owner Stan Kroenke.