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Colin Poche

Rays’ Colin Poche Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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JULY 30: Poche has indeed undergone Tommy John surgery, the Rays announced.

JULY 21: Rays lefty Colin Poche has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow and will miss the 2020 season, the team announced. Tommy John surgery has been recommended for the 26-year-old Poche, who has been placed on the 45-day injured list. Tampa Bay selected veteran catcher Kevan Smith to the big league roster in a corresponding move.

The loss of Poche is a tough blow for the Tampa Bay bullpen. While last season’s 4.70 ERA doesn’t exactly stand out as an impressive mark. Poche’s secondary numbers were all considerably better. The southpaw averaged 12.5 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings pitched with a 4.08 FIP in 51 2/3 frames.

In spite of that unsightly ERA, Poche overwhelmed both left- and right-handed hitters, yielding just a .167/.276/.348 slash to lefties and a .190/.277/.388 line to righties. A 67.6 percent strand rate that was vastly worse than his career mark in the minors, and Statcast pegged Poche in the 91st percentile or better in terms of swinging-strike rate and his opponents’ expected batting average, slugging percentage and weight on-base average. A breakout season for the talented lefty seemed eminently possible, but he could now be sidelined into late 2021 — if not all the way into the 2022 season.

Poche will get a year of service time in 2020 as he rehabs on the 45-day IL, and he’ll need to be placed on the 60-day IL to open the 2021 season as well. If he is indeed out until 2022, he may be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player by the time he’s able to return to the mound, although with 114 days under his belt at the moment, he’d be a very borderline case for Super Two status.

As for the 32-year-old Smith, he’ll likely make the club’s roster as a backup catcher. Smith has seen time in each of the past four seasons — 2016-18 with the White Sox and 2019 with the Angels — hitting a combined .272/.318/.381 along the way. That’s pretty solid production from behind the plate, but Smith also owns a woeful 14 percent caught stealing rate and has posted sub-par framing numbers as well.

The Rays’ Next Breakout Reliever?

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Remember that February 2018 three-way trade among the Rays, Yankees and Diamondbacks? Tampa Bay parted with the most noteworthy player at the time in outfielder Steven Souza Jr., but injuries weighed him down in Arizona and kept him from making an impact there. He’s now a member of the Cubs. The most valuable commodity from the deal could be infielder/outfielder Nick Solak, whom the Rays acquired, though they sent him to the Rangers in a different trade last summer. But the Rays haven’t come away empty-handed from the Souza swap. They may actually have a breakout reliever on their hands as a result of that transaction.

In May 2018, a couple months after the Souza trade occurred, the Rays received pitchers Sam McWilliams and Colin Poche from the Diamondbaks to complete their end of the return. McWilliams was regarded as the better prospect at the time, and he’s still a member of the Tampa Bay organization, but he hasn’t reached the majors yet. Poche – a 26-year-old left-hander – has racked up some big league experience, on the other hand.

After dominating in 2018 with the Rays in Triple-A ball, where he posted a 1.08 ERA/1.75 FIP with 14.04 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9 in 50 innings, Poche’s run prevention numbers took a huge step backward at the minors’ highest level last year. Poche only put up a 6.26 ERA across 27 1/3 frames with the Durham Bulls, though he did manage a far better 3.00 FIP with an otherworldly strikeout/walk ratio (15.8 K/9 versus 2.96 BB/9).

The Rays called Poche up near the beginning of June, and he got off to a rocky start, allowing two earned runs and taking the loss against the Red Sox in his debut. Poche went on to surrender at least one earned run in each of his next two outings, and he hit a nadir when he gave up six in a defeat to the Yankees on July 16. That performance was a major reason why Poche concluded the season with a subpar 4.70 ERA/4.08 FIP over his first 51 2/3 innings in the majors, as was a paltry 18.3 percent groundball rate. Those numbers look pretty mediocre overall, but that’s not to say all hope is lost.

If you look at several other key categories, Poche was actually one of the best relievers in baseball last season. In fact, he finished no worse than 20th in the majors in strikeouts per nine (12.54), swinging-strike percentage (17.2), infield fly rate (16.2 percent) and batting average against (.180). The awful average hitters logged against Poche was no fluke, per Statcast, which placed him in the league’s 100th percentile in expected BA (.170). And Poche was in the 90-plus percentile in such categories as expected weighted on-base average and expected slugging percentage, to name just a couple.

There’s always concern about how lefties fare against righties, especially now that MLB is adopting a three-batter minimum rule. Poche seems equipped to handle batters of either handedness, however, as he allowed almost matching production versus lefties (.274 wOBA) and righties (.281) last season. A four-seam fastball that owned the opposition was one of the reasons for his success; although he doesn’t throw incredibly hard (93 mph), hitters struggled to a .276 wOBA/.266 xwOBA against the pitch, which he threw almost exclusively (88.5 percent) and which FanGraphs assigned high marks. However, as FanGraphs’ Michael Augustine observed over the winter, Poche may have relied too much on that offering and not enough on his breaking ball. There could be something to that. According to Statcast, that pitch – while limited in use – did hold hitters to a laughable .124 wOBA/.104 xwOBA.

Maybe if Poche does lean less on his fastball going forward, he’ll join the ranks of the top lefty relievers in baseball. That type of breakout can’t be dismissed, especially when talking about a member of the Rays’ bullpen. Just over the past couple seasons, they’ve seen the likes of Emilio Pagan (whom they’ve since traded), Nick Anderson (whose ascent was recently covered here), Oliver Drake and Chaz Roe blossom in their uniform. Poche’s not there yet, but he did impress in many ways last year, and it may not be long before he becomes the latest Rays reliever to turn into a major success story.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Bleier, Gurriel, Rays

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The Red Sox have been surprisingly silent on the bullpen market this winter despite the fact that Joe Kelly has left for the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned — seemingly likely to land with another organization as well, based on comments from Boston president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), however, that the Sox are confident in a number of internal options. Recent draftees Travis Lakins (sixth round, 2015) and Durbin Feltman (third round, 2018) could both emerge at the MLB level in 2019, while many in the Red Sox’ analytics department are intrigued by trade pickup Colten Brewer (whom the Sox tried to acquire last summer as well, Olney notes). Tyler Thornburg represents a notable bounceback option, as well. It’s nonetheless jarring to see the Sox take a passive approach to rounding out the ’pen on the heels of a World Series championship. Perhaps there’s yet another move in store with several relievers still available (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), but it seems likely that the Boston ’pen will have to prove its share of naysayers wrong in 2019.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Orioles southpaw Richard Bleier tells Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com that he believes he’ll be ready to roll for the start of the 2019 season. That’s great news for the O’s, as Bleier had been a revelatory hurler before suffering a major injury to his lat. Already 31 years of age, Bleier certainly qualifies as a late bloomer. He’s also an outlier, having now made it through 119 MLB innings with a sub-2.00 ERA despite averaging just 4.1 strikeouts per nine. A big 63.3% groundball rate and low 1.6 BB/9 walk rate go a long way toward explaining the results. Before he can get back to disproving those who question the sustainability of that success, Bleier will need to show he’s back to full health. For the O’s, it would help quite a bit if he can do so. After all, Bleier could be quite a nice trade asset this summer or in the winter to come, especially since he’s still shy of reaching arbitration eligibility.
  • The Blue Jays’ signing of Freddy Galvis this week was tied to the club’s uncertainty about the glovework of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. As Davidi explores at length, the Jays are wary of poor infield defense at a time when they’re developing numerous young pitchers and when rotation holdovers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are heavy ground-ball pitchers. Gurriel has more offensive upside than Galvis but could be squeezed for playing time with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Drury and Devon Travis all still factoring into the infield mix. There have been suggestions that Gurriel could land in the outfield eventually, but as Davidi outlines, that already crowded mix is further muddied with the now-out-of-options Dalton Pompey surprisingly still on the roster. It’s a comprehensive look at a crowded roster, though surely injuries and Spring Training roster moves could eventually impact how things play out. It’s also worth noting that Gurriel still has a minor league option remaining.
  • Juan Toribio of MLB.com tackles a number of questions on the Rays’ roster in his latest Inbox column, highlighting several battles for Opening Day roster spots while also writing that the Rays look unlikely to add another free-agent reliever this offseason. That, he notes, could open the door for Triple-A standout Colin Poche to crack the big league roster either out of camp or early in the season. The Rays, as Toribio notes, are rife with infield depth both on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors but are also cognizant that their projected group of 2019 infielders is lacking experience. So while players such as Christian Arroyo and Kean Wong don’t have clear paths to the Majors at the moment, Tampa Bay is likely to hang onto its depth. Arroyo, once a top prospect with the Giants and the key player received in last winter’s Evan Longoria trade, struggled through a lost season in 2018 and still has a minor league option remaining.

Rays Acquire Two Prospects From D-Backs To Complete Steven Souza Trade

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3:49pm: The Rays and Diamondbacks have now announced the trade.

2:51pm: The Rays have acquired righty Sam McWilliams and southpaw Colin Poche from the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. That pair of hurlers will make up the final portion of the late-February swap that brought outfielder Steven Souza to Arizona.

The Tampa Bay organization had insisted it only relented to moving Souza because of the quality of the return. Today’s news does help to bolster that claim, as the two newcomers are not just throw-in assets.

McWilliams, 22, is a big right-hander who was tabbed as the 13th-best prospect in the Arizona system coming into the season by Baseball America. He has opened eyes since, turning in 25 2/3 innings of 2.10 ERA ball in his first turn at the High-A level. Importantly, he has drastically increased his strikeout rate (to 11.2 K/9, nearly double his career rate) while maintaining his typically reliable control (2.1 BB/9). Arizona had initially picked him up in the trade that sent right-hander (and former Ray) Jeremy Hellickson the Phillies, though McWilliams has raised his profile a bit since that time.

The 24-year-old Poche is closer to the Majors, though unlike McWilliams he does not carry the potential upside of working as a starter. He has enjoyed some success in the past, but nothing like what he has shown thus far this season at Double-A. In 11 shutout innings, Poche has allowed just three hits while compiling a whopping 23:2 K/BB ratio.

It seems reasonable to think that he could be on the MLB radar in the relatively near term — he was included on Jason Martinez’s first Knocking Down the Door feature of 2018 — if he can sustain anything approaching that level of production. Baseball America rated Poche 29th among Arizona farmhands this past offseason, though like McWilliams, his early work has likely elevated his status to an extent.

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