Manager Notes: Weiss, Yost, Ventura, Sandberg, Johnson
With the regular season drawing to a close, let's take a look at a few managerial situations around the league:
- Walt Weiss is expected to return for a second year as the Rockies manager, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Colorado owner Dick Monfort says the club has been pleased with Weiss's growth in the role, and Weiss says he has every intention of staying on. Though Renck clarifies via Twitter that pen has not yet gone to paper, he says that a new deal is largely a formality. The Rockies, in turn, have stated through their team Twitter account that, while there is mutual interest in a return, "nothing is official as of now."
- The fate of Royals manager Ned Yost is entirely in the hands of general manager Dayton Moore, owner David Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Glass added that he feels both Moore and Yost have performed their jobs well. Moore told Dutton that he won't discuss the contracts of Yost and the coaching staff until after the season.
- Though he declined a contract extension opportunity just last winter, White Sox manager Robin Ventura says he wants to keep his post for the foreseeable future, reports Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. Ventura's current deal runs through the end of next season.
- The early returns are positive on Ryne Sandberg's run as interim manager of the Phillies, but he says he has yet to hear from the front office on his future, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Zolecki opines that it is a "near certainty" that the Phils will look to keep Sandberg on for next year, as he has led the team to an 18-14 mark since taking over for the fired Charlie Manuel.
- Nationals manager Davey Johnson says he would have offered to step aside if the team had not made a run to return to the fringes of the Wild Card race, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Though GM Mike Rizzo has made clear he had no intentions of dismissing the veteran from his post, Johnson explained that he would have wanted to afford bench coach Randy Knorr or third base coach Trent Jewett a chance to take an audition at the helm. Kilgore notes that Knorr seems to be the most likely internal option to take over next year.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Transaction Retrospection: Helton & Tulowitzki Deals
Todd Helton recently announced that he will retire after the 2013 season, providing an opportunity to reflect on his excellent career. Helton will spend his entire big-league tenure with one team, a rarity in this era, and that's due at least in part to the gigantic $142MM extension he signed in 2001.
Helton has had a textbook career path. He reached the Majors at age 23, improved through his first three seasons, and peaked from ages 26 through 30, then began a long, gradual decline phase, playing less and less effectively as his power, and then his ability to hit for average, deserted him. His career has also been typical in that he was dramatically underpaid for many of his best years and overpaid for many of his worst ones. Helton produced 8.3 wins above replacement as a 26-year-old in 2000, when he made $1.3MM. He produced between 5.5 and 7.1 WAR in all of the next four seasons, then never topped 4.4 WAR again.
Helton's massive contract did not kick in until 2003, which means that the Rockies paid $142MM and only got two seasons above 4.4 WAR. For the life of the contract, the Rockies received 30 WAR over nine years. That's not a terrible total, but it's not a good one either, given that a win on the free-agent market in, say, 2005 was worth much less than the $5-6MM it's worth now. Fangraphs' dollar values suggest that Helton was worth $105MM over the life of the contract, about $37MM less than he was paid. (Helton would have been arbitration-eligible in 2003, also, which means he also might have made a hair less in that season, one of his best in the entire contract, than the $10.6MM the extension paid him.)
The deal also made Helton one of MLB's highest-paid players even though the Rockies have never really been a high-payroll team, and there were several years in which Helton's contract made up about a quarter of the Rockies' Opening Day payroll. The Rockies made the playoffs twice and had three winning seasons over the life of the contract.
None of that is Helton's fault. He was an outstanding player in his prime and a pretty good one in his 30s, and the Rockies just happened to pay too heavily for him. It was a little surprising, then, that as they watched Helton's decline years unfold, they signed shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to another bank-busting contract.
Tulowitzki's contract was, in a way, even more remarkable than Helton's, in that the Rockies committed to it in late 2010 even though they already had Tulowitzki under control through 2014, after which he would be 30 years old. The Rockies effectively committed $119MM in new money to cover the 2015 through 2020 seasons, ending right around Tulowitzki's 36th birthday. From 2015 through 2019, Tulowitzki will make $20MM per year. For much of that time, they'll also have Carlos Gonzalez's backloaded $80MM contract to contend with. Gonzalez agreed to his deal, which essentially bought out four pre-free-agency seasons at $27MM and three free-agent years for $53MM, five weeks after Tulowitzki got his.
Tulowitzki's performance since he signed the contract has revealed both its potential upside and its potential downside. If he continues to play as he has in 2013, when he has produced 5.5 WAR, the contract will be a bargain. But as he ages, it will be difficult to sustain that level of performance, particularly if he suffers more injuries like the groin strain that caused him to miss much of the 2012 season.
So why did the Rockies sign Tulowitzki to such an enormous extension? "It was the right thing to do," Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said at the time. "We believe in character, team and integrity."
The extension reportedly grew out of a broader conversation between Tulowitzki and O'Dowd. "The maturity of understanding the continuity and stability of things and what he's trying to become as a man led me to say to our owner, 'I think maybe we should explore this right now,'" O'Dowd said. The Rockies evidently believe that character, maturity and other intangibles are very valuable. Many teams talk about the importance of character, but there's ample reason to believe it when the Rockies are doing the talking.
Of course, keeping a star player in a market surely has financial value in merchandise sales and fan loyalty. That kind of value is difficult to measure for us outsiders, but the Rockies surely have some idea what kind of loyalty value the Helton extension has provided, and how keeping Tulowitzki around for several more years might benefit them beyond just his performance on the field. Regardless, it's difficult to imagine how those sorts of tough-to-measure benefits might compensate for the $37MM the Rockies appear to have overpaid Helton for his performance from 2003 through 2011, and the Rockies' performance as a team over that period hasn't helped answer those questions.
Tulowitzki is a different player, obviously, and his extension may turn out well. In fact, it's less risky than Helton's was. The $20MM annual salaries for 2015 through 2019 are high, but they aren't that high when one accounts for salary inflation. If a win is worth $5-6MM now, it could easily be worth $6-7MM in, say, 2018, which means that Tulowitzki would only need to provide about 3 WAR annually to make the deal a decent one for the Rockies. (It's hard to say for sure how new TV deals will continue to affect the salary landscape, but the Rockies' expires in 2014.) There's also the fact that Tulowitzki plays good defense, or at least he does now — his ability to field at a premium position should prevent the contract from being a complete debacle.
Of course, that assumes he stays healthy. Tulowitzki missed significant chunks of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 seasons with injuries, and players tend not to get healthier as they get older. Sports Illustrated's Joe Lemire points out the parallels between Tulowitzki and Nomar Garciaparra, who suffered from a number of injuries and never put up a star-caliber season after age 29. As Lemire also points out, though, Derek Jeter also had an enormous contract that carried him through his mid-30s, and he played very well until almost the very end of it.
Unless the Rockies substantially raise their payroll in the coming years, the Tulowitzki extension does represent a risk. Tulowitzki's injuries could continue to be a problem as he enters his 30s, a decade that is generally unkind to ballplayers anyway. Unlike Helton's contract, though, Tulowitzki's deal won't make him one of the sport's highest-paid players, and Tulowitzki won't have to perform at quite as high a level as Helton would have to justify the contract.
Todd Helton To Retire After 2013 Season
Todd Helton will retire from baseball at the conclusion of this season, the Rockies' longtime franchise player told Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Helton told Renck he unofficially decided during Spring Training that 2013 would be the end of his career (and hinted about it at the time) and while he pondered continuing playing due to improved health, the veteran slugger has now made the choice to hang up his cleats after 17 Major League seasons.
"It just seems like it's time. It's a young man's game. I am 40 years old," Helton said. "I am looking forward to doing something else besides baseball. Whatever that may be. I am not sure yet."
Helton entered Saturday's action with a .244/.316/.407 line, 13 homers and 51 RBI in 386 PA. He has had a few more injury issues this season and had mostly settled into a part-time role with the Rockies, which Helton said he could've continued in for a few more seasons but felt it was time to walk away:
"If I could play 81 games at home next year, I could do it. I could do it for a couple of more years. And if they had the games scheduled for the same time so I could get a sleeping pattern, I would have a chance. I am sure come next February, probably even in December when it's usually time to start getting ready, it will be tough."
Helton was a two-sport star at the University of Tennessee, serving as the Volunteers' quarterback before a knee injury opened the door for a rather heralded backup (Peyton Manning) to take the job and never look back. Helton turned his full attention to baseball and was selected by the Rockies as the eighth overall pick of the 1995 draft. The left-handed slugger spent his entire career in Colorado and is the franchise's leader in virtually every counting stat, including homers, hits, walks, runs, total bases, doubles, RBIs, games played, at-bats, plate appearances,
With a resume that includes 367 homers, 2504 hits, 1394 RBIs and a .317/.415/.539 slash line, Helton will certainly receive some serious Hall of Fame consideration in five years' time. His Cooperstown critics will argue that Helton was aided by playing at Coors Field (a career 1.048 OPS in home games), though Helton still posted an impressive .856 OPS over his career in away games. This perception that he was partly a creation of Denver's thin air dogged Helton throughout his career, as he never finished higher than fifth in NL MVP voting.
Helton has earned just shy over $161.5MM during his career, according to Baseball Reference. The bulk came from his nine-year, $141MM extension signed before the 2001 season, and in March 2010, Helton signed an extension that covered the 2012-13 seasons that included deferring some money from his previous deal.
East Links: Jeter, Drew, CarGo, Gonzalez, Lester
Yankees GM Brian Cashman may be forced to play the bad guy role again as the club considers how they'll address Derek Jeter given the captain's age and durability issues, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. Three scouts and three executives polled by Harper each said they believe Cashman will acquire an everyday shortstop this offseason, as they don't believe Jeter will be able to handle the position and the Yankees don't have acceptable alternatives. "He’ll be a 40-year old shortstop who already had limited range," one executive said, noting Jeter's injured ankle. "If you’re the GM, it’s your responsibility to make the tough decision for the good of the ballclub.” Here's more notes from around the majors' eastern divisions…
- The majority of the six baseball people who Harper spoke with suggested shortstop Stephen Drew as a potential free agent acquisition for the Yankees. While Drew has posted a solid .249/.331/.436 line this season and would be a good fit for Yankee Stadium, signing with the Yanks would place him in a delicate situation. "Would Drew — or anyone else — want to sign on as the guy pushing an unwilling Jeter into a role where he would DH mostly and play short only occasionally?" Harper asks.
- The Mets covet the Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez, and one executive familiar with the Rockies' thinking tells Harper they're likely to listen to offers for the star outfielder. However, a trade appears unlikely, as the Rockies want young position players and aren't interested in what the Mets can offer in that regard. Colorado may also consider offers for Troy Tulowitzki, Harper says.
- CC Sabathia's 4.90 ERA would be the second-worst mark in Yankees history by a pitcher to surpass the 200 inning threshold, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. “I have always been bend-but-don’t-break, and I have broken a lot this year,” Sabathia commented. Sherman says Sabathia has adjusted his delivery in order to better stay on top of the ball so that his fastball does not cut toward the middle of the plate.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson is on track to become the first GM in club history to post increasing loss totals in each of his first three seasons from the team he inherited, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets. The team clinched its fifth consecutive losing season in dropping today's game with the Marlins.
- The Phillies have no plans for recent Cuban acquisition Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez to pitch competitively this season, Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer says. The team sees Gonzalez sliding into the third slot of their 2014 rotation behind Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. "We just want to see where he's at," assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said. "We want to get him assimilated into our organization and be ready to go for spring training."
- The Red Sox have yet to broach the subject of Jon Lester's next contract, GM Ben Cherington revealed in an interview with WEEI.com. "We just feel like those issues are better left for after we’re done playing, which hopefully is several weeks from now," Cherington said. We recently heard that the Sox are "all but certain" to pick up their $13MM option on Lester for next year.
Quick Hits: GMs, Comp Picks, 2013 Free Agents
On this day in 2007, Terry Ryan announced that he would step aside from his post as the Twins general manager at the end of the season. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted, Ryan's history was checkered at best at the time. Of course, as a read through this site's most recent post would indicate, Ryan is now back at the helm. Though the team has yet to post more than seventy wins in a season since Ryan returned in November of 2011, Minnesota stands at 15th in ESPN's latest future power rankings on the strength of its minor league system. While Ryan has long been said to have his job as long as he wants to keep it, some other GMs may not be so lucky …
- There are four general managers around the league who could soon be replaced, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. According to Gammons, two of those — Jerry Dipoto of the Angels and Larry Beinfest of the Marlins – have arguably been undone by meddling owners. (Gammons cites Arte Moreno's $365MM investment in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and Jeffrey Loria's propensity for "whimsically run[ning] everything.") Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik may not survive to see whether the team's top young pitching talent can drive a winner. And Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd — the game's fourth-longest tenured GM — has yet to figure out how to craft a squad that can win away from Coors field. (For what it's worth, O'Dowd was in charge for the franchise's lone season with a winning road record, when it posted a 41-40 mark in 2009.)
- It would be ridiculous to consider Rangers GM Jon Daniels among those at risk, writes Baseball Nation's Grant Brisbee. While he surely could have sacrificed future value to win at all costs this season, says Brisbee, Daniels was prudent not to and still delivered a team that should qualify for the post-season.
- Teams must determine whether to make outgoing free agents a qualifying offer just five days after the conclusion of this year's World Series, and those decisions will play a major role in setting the stage for the 2014 free agent market. For non-obvious candidates, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, an important part of the equation lies in valuing the compensation pick that the team would receive if the player declines the offer and then signs with another club. Working off of a rough valuation of international signing slot dollars, Cameron opines that teams could value the dollars spent on a comp pick as much as three-to-four times higher than money the team could spend outside the draft. As he explains, this would imply that there is substantial excess value in obtaining non-marketable draft picks, which could move the needle in favor of making qualifying offers in marginal situations.
- As we prepare to weigh a new class of free agents, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman ranks the best signings of 2013. His top three are a collection of veterans whose contributions have vastly outweighed the relatively meager financial commitments that they received: Pirates starter Francisco Liriano, Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, and Athletics starter Bartolo Colon. Next on his list is Boston's David Ortiz, who as Heyman notes was the only player to accept a qualifying offer in the first year of the system.
Rockies Acquire Yoely Bello To Complete Nelson Trade
The Rockies have acquired left-hander Yoely Bello from the Yankees to complete the trade that sent Chris Nelson to the Bronx earlier this season, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter).
Bello, 22, pitched 24 1/3 innings for the Yankees' Rookie-level Gulf Coast League affiliate this season and posted a 6.29 ERA with 29 strikeouts (10.7 K/9) and 16 walks (5.9 BB/9). Bello will turn 23 this winter and has yet to pitch at a higher level than the GCL. In parts of four seasons between the GCL and the Dominican Summer League, the Dominican native has posted a 3.98 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.
That the Rockies didn't receive much of a prospect isn't a surprise, considering the trade occured after Nelson had already been designated for assignment. Nelson spent just two weeks with the Yankees, batting .222/.243/.278 with 11 strikeouts and one walk in 37 plate appearances. They would soon DFA him as well, and Nelson would go on to be claimed by the Angels.
NL West Notes: Padres, Owings, Rockies
Earlier today, it was reported that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero, who has officially been cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control to sign with a Major League team. Here's more out of the NL West…
- Padres GM Josh Byrnes isn't sure what this offseason will hold, but he told MLB.com's Barry M. Bloom that he's certain that the team's payroll will go up again. Byrnes also spoke about his feelings on the Mat Latos trade in hindsight. Since the swap, Yasmani Grandal was hit with a 50-game suspension and has missed time with injury, Yonder Alonso has been hurt, and Edinson Volquez was released after a disappointing 2013 season.
- The Diamondbacks will take a long look at Chris Owings over the final weeks of the season as they try to evaluate their shortstop position in the long-term, manager Kirk Gibson tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Owings won Pacific Coast League MVP honors this season by hitting .330/.359/.482 with 12 homers and 20 steals. Gibson praised his positive attitude in the face of last offseasons acquisitions of Didi Gregorius, Nick Ahmed and Cliff Pennington. Gregorius, who started out the season on a hot streak, has hit just .208/.288/.277 over his past 55 games, opening the door for Owings to make an impression.
- Wilton Lopez's disappointing season and Matt Belisle's regression will likely force the Rockies to rebuild their bullpen this offseason, even if it means overpaying for arms, opines Troy Renck of the Denver Post (Sulia link). The Rockies will also be without Rafael Betancourt, who elected to undergo Tommy John surgery and could retire due to the injury.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Rockies Outright Tyler Colvin
One season removed from a .290/.327/.531 campaign that saw him belt 18 homers, Tyler Colvin has lost his spot on the Rockies' 40-man roster, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The 28-year-old Colvin has cleared waivers and accepted a minor league assignment.
Colvin dealt with a disc injury in his back for the majority of the season, Renck adds, which is likely at least part of the reason for the .160/.192/.280 batting line he posted in 27 big league games this season. He opened the season by hitting .293/.396/.518 in 229 Triple-A plate appearances but struggled upon his promotion to the Majors. After being sent back to Colorado Springs, the former first-round pick hit just .200/.300/.314 in 10 games before missing the end of July and the entire month of August.
Originally drafted 13th overall by the Cubs in 2006, Colvin was acquired by Colorado prior to the 2012 season along with DJ LeMahieu in a trade that sent Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers to Chicago. His power is very real (career .203 ISO), but overall his .241/.289/.454 line and 26.3 percent strikeout rate illustrate persistent struggles to get on base at the Major League level. Colvin has struggled against left-handed pitching in particular, hitting southpaws at a .217/.255/.385 clip. He's capable of playing all three outfield positions and has experience at first base as well. Colvin could be a buy-low candidate for power-starved teams this offseason if the Rockies decide he no longer has a place in their organization.
Quick Hits: Black, Pirates, Rasmussen, McDonald
Reliever Vic Black did not suspect he would be headed to the Mets as the player to be named in the Marlon Byrd deal with the Pirates, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com writes. "It never crossed my mind," Black says. Black notes that his goal is to close in the big leagues, saying that he has the aggressive mentality necessary to be a closer. He also has closer-type stuff, with a plus fastball and a slider. Black had a 2.51 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 Triple-A Indianapolis this season. Here are more notes from around the Majors.
- The loss of Black and, potentially, Duke Welker (who may or may not be headed to the Twins as the PTBNL in the Justin Morneau trade) will add more uncertainty to a Pirates' Triple-A Indianapolis roster that has already had more than its share of flux. Brian Peloza of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review writes that the Pirates have promoted 18 different players from Indianapolis this season, more than other NL playoff contenders. Those players include Black, Welker, Alex Presley (the other player included in the Morneau deal), and top prospect Gerrit Cole.
- The Phillies believe that Rob Rasmussen, the pitcher they received when they traded Michael Young to the Dodgers, could end up as a reliever, Bob Brookover of the Inquirer reports. "He's starting now, but he could be a guy later on who could pitch in the bullpen," GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says. "Lefthanders are always valuable. He's viewed as a really strong makeup kid with a big arm." Rasmussen, 24, had a 2.55 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 for Double-A Chattanooga in 2013, although he struggled in 54 1/3 innings for Triple-A Albuquerque.
- Connecticut native and Massachusetts resident John McDonald is happy that a trade to the Red Sox brought him home, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. "[G]rowing up in New England, and getting to play in Fenway, and to put this uniform on today, it’s pretty awesome," McDonald says. The Red Sox will be the fourth team the infielder has played for this season, having also suited up for the Pirates, Indians and Phillies.
- Angels owner Arte Moreno needs to share his plan to rebuild the team with superstar outfielder Mike Trout, argues the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. Trout will be close to free agency by the time it will become possible for the Angels to return to contention, at least on a regular basis, Shaikin says.
- The Rockies need to acquire a veteran starter in the offseason, and they also need bullpen help and a right-handed power bat, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes. Nonetheless, Renck suggests that the improvements in the Rockies' rotation this year (their 2013 starters have a 4.37 ERA, compared to a 5.81 ERA in 2012) suggest that the team is heading in the right direction.
Rafael Betancourt’s Career Could Be Over
FRIDAY, 9:20pm: Betancourt told a Venezuelan radio outlet that he will undergo surgery in an attempt to pitch again, according to a report in Mi Diairo passed along by MLB.com's Ian McCue.
TUESDAY, 11:03am: Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports that a Monday MRI revealed the worst-case scenario for Rockies closer Rafael Betancourt: a complete tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament that will likely put an end to his 11-year Major League career.
For the time being, Betancourt will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow with the faint hope that it will help to form scar tissue that will allow him to pitch again. Should that method fail, Betancourt is likely to retire rather than undergo Tommy John surgery at this stage of his career.
Betancourt, who will turn 39 next April, has been a force in Colorado's bullpen since coming over from the Indians in a trade back in 2009. With the Rockies, he's tallied a 3.08 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a pristine 1.007 WHIP. He's totaled 646 1/3 innings of 3.19 ERA ball with well over a strikeout per inning in a strong Major League career.
Rockies manager Walt Weiss described Betancourt as a "warrior" after talking with him following the MRI, and Renck writes that he's seen few players prepare harder for each day than Betancourt:
“That’s because I could take nothing for granted. Every day I had to prove myself,” said Betancourt, a converted minor-league infielder. “I wasn’t going to leave anything to chance.”
Betancourt's contract contains a $4.25MM mutual option that will obviously be declined, earning him a $250K buyout. Including that buyout, Betancourt will have earned roughly $23.3MM throughout his career when all is said and done.