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AL Central Notes: Tigers, Zobrist, Park, Robinson

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Early indications are that the Tigers are more focused on second-tier free agents than the top of the market, sources tell ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would seem to preclude, at least for the time being, notions of a reunion with either David Price or Yoenis Cespedes, even though both could conceivably fit onto the roster. The question for the Tigers, as I noted in my recent Offseason Outlook on Detroit, is whether a top free agent would fit into the club’s long-term payroll capacity. Justin Verlander’s resurgence has lessened the need to seek a top-flight arm, meaning names like Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen and Yovani Gallardo could be more plausible targets for first-year GM Al Avila, who has previously stated a preference to add a pair of starters this winter.

Here’s more from the AL Central as the offseason gets underway…

  • Ben Zobrist tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that Alex Gordon should be the Royals’ top priority this offseason due to Gordon’s status as face of the franchise, but adds that he would love to return to Kansas City (Twitter link). Kansas City picked up Zobrist from the A’s in exchange for lefty Sean Manaea and right-hander Aaron Brooks prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Zobrist, like Gordon, figures to be one of the more in-demand free agents this winter due to his versatility and track record of above-average offense. Gordon declined his player option with the Royals earlier tonight.
  • The Twins have interest in a reunion with fleet-footed center fielder Shane Robinson, a source tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Robinson recently elected free agency after being outrighted by the Twins, who presumably would like to bring him back on a minor league pact. The 31-year-old somewhat improbably cracked Minnesota’s Opening Day roster in 2015 and spent the entire season serving as a fourth outfielder, late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner. The former Cardinal hit .250/.299/.322 in 197 plate appearances and graded out quite well by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3 and +2.7, respectively, in just 458 innings).
  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets that the Twins have scouted Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park extensively, with one club official calling him a “good run producer.” It’s somewhat difficult to see where Park would fit into Minnesota’s crowded corner scene, where Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano are all likely to rotate throughout third base, first base and DH (though Mauer wouldn’t see time at third). Park was posted earlier this week after hitting 105 homers over the past two seasons in KBO. Bids on the 29-year-old are due Friday.

Tigers Decline Nathan’s Option, Add Cessa To 40-Man Roster

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The Tigers announced on Tuesday that they’ve declined their $10MM option on right-hander Joe Nathan and added pitching prospect Luis Cessa to the 40-man roster. Nathan, who underwent Tommy John earlier this year, will receive a $1MM buyout. Nathan said back in April that he planned to undergo the lengthy rehabilitation process that came with the surgery with the goal of again pitching in the Major Leagues.

Nathan was a high-profile signing by now-former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski prior to the 2014 season. Detroit signed the longtime Twins closer to a two-year, $20MM contract in spite of his advanced age, but Nathan was unable to replicate the All-Star form that he showed with the Twins or with the Rangers. Nathan posted a 4.81 ERA in his age-39 season in 2014 and pitched just one-third of an inning in 2015 before going down with a torn tendon and ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The 40-year-old seems like a candidate for a minor league deal this winter, but he could conceivably wait to sign until midseason, when he’s further along in his rehab, in hopes of securing a big league deal.

As for Cessa, the 23-year-old was one of two right-handed pitching prospects acquired from the Mets in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes. (Michael Fulmer was the other.) Cessa would’ve been Rule 5 eligible this winter and needed to be added to the 40-man roster in order to be protected, so it was only a matter of time as to when his contract was selected by the Tigers. Cessa split his age-23 season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, logging a 4.52 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 139 1/3 innings. He currently ranks sixth among Tigers farmhands, per MLB.com.

Daniel Norris Has Successful Surgery For Thyroid Cancer

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OCTOBER 29: Norris has announced on Instagram that his surgery was successful and that he is considered cancer-free. That’s obviously outstanding news. Hopefully, the surgery has not only secured Norris’s long-term health, but also will allow him to resume his promising career in short order.

OCTOBER 19: Tigers lefty Daniel Norris announced today on Instagram that he has been diagnosed with cancer in his thyroid. He will undergo surgery soon to remove the malignant growth.

Needless to say, the news is shocking, particularly given that Norris is just 22 years of age. On the bright side, of course, many of the factors that made him a top pitching prospect  — youth, physical strength, and mental toughness — will serve him well as he battles this new foe.

Also providing hope for a good prognosis is the fact that Norris played out the season despite receiving the diagnosis several months back. He indicates in his announcement that he got the news prior to his trade from the Blue Jays to the Tigers, but was advised that it was safe to hold off on having the procedure. Remarkably, Norris performed quite well in a late-season run of eight starts with Detroit.

MLBTR extends its very best wishes to Daniel, who was kind enough to join the MLBTR Podcast back in early August. Already an inspirational figure for his approach to life, he’ll no doubt continue to set an example as he tackles cancer.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Castellanos, Hunter, Indians

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The Tigers announced that they have hired Rich Dubee as their new pitching coach, as MLB.com’s Jason Beck first reported would be the case. The former Braves pitching coach brings with him 13 years of experience as a Major League pitching coach, most notably serving as the Phillies’ pitching coach when the team won the World Series in 2008. The 58-year-old Dubee, who has spent the past two seasons as Atlanta’s minor league pitching coordinator, will replace pitching coach Jeff Jones, who retired abruptly following the season’s completion.

A few more notes from around the AL Central…

  • While many Tigers fans are disappointed with the development (or lack thereof) of Nick Castellanos, MLive.com’s Chris Iott preaches patience and notes that the approximate $550K salary Castellanos will receive next season will keep him in the team’s plans. Iott notes that while he isn’t a good defender at third base, Castellanos did make strides. He’s also still just 23 years of age, and though he may not reach the star-level ceiling to which some thought he might ascend, there’s still hope for further improvement. Iott also points out that with enormous salaries for Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez and others, Detroit needs to rely somewhat on contributions from pre-arbitration players like Castellanos, Anthony Gose and James McCann, as the team simply cannot afford to stack the roster with significant salaries. Iott writes that it “would be a shock” to see the Tigers pursue an upgrade at third base via trade or free agency.
  • The Twins were planning their offseason as if Torii Hunter would return next year, tweets La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Neal adds that some within the organization are “crushed” by his decision to hang it up. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets a quote from assistant GM Rob Antony regarding Hunter’s retirement. “We have some people that will be able to handle the leadership part of things,” Antony said in reference to Hunter’s role within the clubhouse. However, Minnesota’s AGM still stressed the impact that Hunter had in that regard this past season.
  • The $17.7 billion sale of Cablevision, a company owned by the Dolan family, who also own the Indians, will not impact Cleveland’s payroll, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. At the time Larry Dolan purchased the Indians, he noted that his brother, Charles (who owns Cablevision), and Cablevision were “not involved” in his purchase of the team. Larry’s son, Paul, now serves as the CEO and offered the following statement on the sale: “Cablevision’s pending sale is entirely separate from us and has no impact on us.” Paul Dolan, however, is looking to sell as much as a 30 percent ownership stake in the Indians, as was reported in late August, though he’s made it clear that the Dolan family will maintain a controlling interest in the Indians. Cleveland typically operates with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and has averaged an Opening Day mark of $84.7MM over the past three seasons.

Coaching Notes: Hickey, Butcher, Murphy, Tigers

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The Rays have signed pitching coach Jim Hickey to a three-year extension, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Hickey’s previous deal ran through the 2016 campaign, but Topkin writes that, presumably, the new deal replaces that one and offers Hickey a raise. Under Hickey, the Rays have continually turned out one of the best pitching units in all of Major League Baseball despite a huge amount of turnover due to the team’s payroll constraints and difficulty retaining players as they become more expensive via arbitration and free agency.

A few more notes on some prominent coaching positions throughout the Majors…

  • The Diamondbacks have hired Mike Butcher as their new pitching coach, according to a team press release. Butcher has spent the past nine seasons as Mike Scioscia’s pitching coach in Anaheim, but the Angels announced recently that he would not return for a 10th season. Butcher will replace Mike Harkey, who was fired by the D-Backs following the 2015 campaign.
  • Pat Murphy, who served as the Padres’ interim manager following Bud Black’s dismissal in San Diego, will become the Brewers’ bench coach, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Murphy will join manager Craig Counsell in Milwaukee, whom he coached more than 20 years ago at Notre Dame. Milwaukee had interest in adding Murphy to its coaching staff prior to his hiring in San Diego, Lin notes. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt said earlier this month that adding Murphy to the coaching staff was a strong possibility for the Brewers.
  • The Tigers have narrowed their search for a pitching coach to a handful of candidates, including recently reassigned Nationals pitching coach Steve McCatty, reports MLive.com’s Chris Iott. McCatty has previously served as Detroit’s pitching coach, and he’s joined among the finalists by former Tigers pitcher A.J. Sager, Iott hears. Detroit is closing in on a decision, per Iott.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

AL Notes: Loup, Rays Stadium, Greene, Ackley

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As the Blue Jays battle to stay alive in the ALCS, they’ll finally be able to turn to lefty Aaron Loup if the need arises. He’s been sporadically absent over the post-season, creating challenges for the team’s pen, but it turns out that much more important matters have arisen. His wife went into labor much earlier than expected, giving birth to a premature baby boy on Wednesday, as Jays play-by-play man Mike Wilner tweeted earlier this evening. Fortunately, Loup’s son is in stable condition. MLBTR extends its congratulations and very best wishes to Loup’s young family.

Here are some notes from the American League:

  • There was some important news yesterday regarding the Rays’ efforts to land a new stadium, as Charlie Frago and Tony Marrero of the Tampa Bay Times reported. After long and tough negotiations, the St. Petersburg City Council approved a deal to let the club seek new stadium sites in surrounding counties. Tampa Bay would still be required to pay significant break-up fees to get out of its lease at Tropicana Field, with some saying the cost will be too high for the Rays to participate, so the path to keeping the team in the area remains to be cleared.
  • The Tigers face some tough questions with righty Shane Greene, who was an important trade acquisition last winter. As Chris Iott of MLive.com writes, the team expects to give him a shot to earn a spot with the club, but it’s not yet clear whether he’ll make the rotation. Greene had surgery on his shoulder, though it was for an “arterial issue” rather than some structural concern, and is set to be ready for the spring. But it was his rough season before that which leads to concern over his long-term outlook. “I can tell you right now that [Greene] is a starting pitcher,” said GM Al Avila. “But we feel that he can also go into the bullpen if we needed him to or because we think it’s the best thing for him and organization.” Something of the opposite is true of Alex Wilson, who Avila says will remain in the pen despite a history of starting in the minors.
  • Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog takes a close look at the Yankees’ options with Dustin Ackley, writing that the deadline acquisition could take the bulk of the time at second base — being spelled frequently or occasionally against left-handed pitching — or end up in more of a super-utility role. Jennings also discusses the idea of replacing Ackley with a better version of himself — presumably, Ben Zobrist — while also utilizing youngsters Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela more heavily.

AL Notes: V-Mart, Orioles, Roberts, Pomeranz

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The Tigers’ signing of Victor Martinez to a four-year, $68MM contract last offseason was a decision that was largely driven by owner Mike Ilitch rather than former GM Dave Dombrowski, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Dombrowski wasn’t in favor of such a lofty number for the aging DH. Heyman adds that the Mariners were outbid on Martinez, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Seattle was comfortable going to three years and $45MM for V-Mart but turned its focus to Nelson Cruz after Martinez returned to the Tigers. While it’s unlikely that Cruz’s production will hold up to its current level through the final year of his four-year, $57MM deal, he was brilliant in his first season with the Mariners.

A few more notes from around the American League…

  • The Orioles will “at least kick the tires” on Ben Zobrist this winter, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, although I’d imagine they’ll be joined by about 20 teams in that pursuit. Nonetheless, Kubatko notes that manager Buck Showalter has long admired Zobrist’s versatility and would love to add him to the fold, and he has fans in the front office as well. The Orioles could find plenty of playing time for Zobrist in the corner outfield.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that the Orioles will probably look to add a left-handed starter, if not two, to the mix this winter. Baltimore stands to lose Wei-Yin Chen and has no lefty replacements in the waiting, save for perhaps T.J. McFarland, who has made only seven starts (five in the minors and two in the Majors) since 2012. Connolly adds that while there’s interest in retaining Chen, the Orioles aren’t likely to retain him if he receives a five-year offer elsewhere.
  • The Mariners interviewed Padres bench coach Dave Roberts for their managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Roberts received a pair of interviews and was considered a finalist for the job. However, Angels AGM Scott Servais will reportedly be announced as Seattle’s new skipper later today. Rosenthal adds that Roberts could be a fit for the Dodgers, though that suggestion seems at least partially speculative in nature.
  • The Athletics announced on Thursday that lefty Drew Pomeranz underwent clavicle resection surgery, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee writes. The recovery timetable for Pomeranz is set for roughly six weeks, and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. As Lee notes, Pomeranz pitched through shoulder troubles for much of the season, and this operation will hopefully alleviate those woes next year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.3MM salary for Pomeranz in his first run through the arbitration process.

Coaching Notes: Rockies, Mariners, Tigers, Marlins

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Here’s the latest on coaching changes throughout MLB:

  • The Rockies will bring back their entire coaching staff under manager Walt Weiss, Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. That includes hitting coach Blake Doyle, bench coach Tom Runnells, pitching coach Steve Foster, and bullpen coach Darren Holmes.
  • The Rockies will, however, lose mental skills coach Andy McKay to the Mariners, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports. McKay will reportedly take over for Chris Gwynn as the organization’s farm director. Along with Gwynn, a number of minor-league coaches have also departed, signaling that new GM Jerry Dipoto is changing the way the Mariners develop prospects.
  • Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones has announced his retirement, James Schmehl of MLive.com notes. The team had previously announced that its entire coaching staff would be back next season, so the moves comes as a bit of a surprise, although perhaps not a huge one — Jones considered retiring after Jim Leyland’s departure in late 2013. In a statement, Jones said he wanted to spend more time with his family.
  • Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux’s contract expires at the end of the month, Evan Grant of DallasNews.com writes. The team has invited Maddux to return next season, but it’s unclear whether he will. One would think he would attract plenty of attention if he were to become available — Maddux’s tenure in Texas has been successful, and he’s highly respected throughout the game.
  • The Diamondbacks are interviewing pitching coach candidates, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Bullpen coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. was expected to be in the mix, but he wants to be closer to his father (who lives in Washington State) as he deals with cancer. The Diamondbacks now believe Stottlemyre is likely to take a position with the Mariners, who have requested permission to interview him. The Diamondbacks say they could consider up to six internal candidates and have requested permission to speak with others outside the organization.
  • Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria has spoken with the Marlins about their managerial job, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes (scroll down). The other known interviewees for the position include Larry Bowa, Manny Acta, Bo Porter, Phil Nevin and Alex Cora.
  • Orioles first base coach Wayne Kirby will be back, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Baltimore is working to retain all of its staff and has nearly done so.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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A disappointing 2015 season led to a mini fire sale that sent David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria to new teams in July as well as the eventual dismissal of GM Dave Dombrowski. With longtime Dombrowski lieutenant Al Avila now atop the baseball operations pyramid, the Tigers will again act as buyers this winter in hopes of returning to the top of the AL Central.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Free Agents

Contract Options

Other Financial Commitments

  • Prince Fielder: $6MM (paid to Rangers as part of the 2013 Kinsler/Fielder trade)

For a team with a lot of holes to fill and a potentially expensive arbitration class, the Tigers have a huge amount committed to the 2016 payroll already. Detroit has nearly $111MM committed to just the five players listed above, and that number will rise into the upper-$120MMs simply tendering contracts to the arbitration eligible players above (excluding Neftali Feliz and Josh Wilson, who are near locks to be cut loose) and rounding out the roster with league-minimum players.

The good news for Tigers fans is that the team has averaged about $155MM on their Opening Day payrolls over the past four seasons, and owner Mike Ilitch seems likely to authorize his newly minted general manager to spend aggressively in order to build a contender.

The Tigers’ biggest need is on the pitching staff — both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Last winter’s trades to acquire Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon paid little dividends, and now neither can be definitively penciled into the 2016 picture. Simon is a free agent, while Greene’s season was cut short by a nerve injury. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez are the two Opening Day locks, and I’d expect that left-hander Daniel Norris, the key piece acquired in the David Price trade with Toronto, will be included as well (presuming his surgery to remove a malignant growth from his thyroid goes smoothly. Best wishes to Daniel in his fight against cancer.). Other options for the Tigers include Matt Boyd (who was also acquired in the Price deal but struggled considerably in the Majors), Kyle Lobstein, Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan and Drew VerHagen. While they have a fairly sizable quantity of arms, the quality of said group leaves something to be desired.

As such, it’s not a surprise to hear GM Al Avila state the goal of adding two starting pitchers this winter. Verlander’s resurgence over the final few months might lessen the need for a front-of-the-rotation arm, and re-signing Price would cloud their long-term payroll outlook anyway. The Tigers are already paying Miguel Cabrera and Verlander a combined $58MM in 2019, and adding Price would seemingly lock them in to a pair of $30MM+ salaries (Cabrera and Price) through the 2022 season. Their pockets are deep, but from a roster construction standpoint, that type of handcuffing so far down the line makes a six- or seven-year commitment to a pitcher that will be in decline for the final few years far too risky.

Rather, second-tier arms could be the preferred route for Detroit. Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy and Scott Kazmir have all been mentioned as possibilities, and any of the bunch would add some much-needed stability to a murky rotation picture. Ilitch is no stranger to dealing with Scott Boras, so perhaps we should include Wei-Yin Chen as a possibility to slot into the middle of the Detroit rotation as well.

If the aim is to suppress the length of commitment to a rotation addition, older-but-solid veterans such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma make sense on two- or three-year pacts. A one-year reunion with Doug Fister could make sense for both parties if Fister’s preferred option is to sign a short-term deal to rebuild his depleted free agent value. Failing those options, trades for 2016-17 free agents C.J. Wilson or Andrew Cashner could theoretically be reached.

Over the years, the bullpen has been Detroit’s Achilles heel, particularly in the postseason. Former GM Dave Dombrowski gets a bad rap for the team’s bullpen woes, though he frequently sought to improve the relief corps by signing Joaquin Benoit and Joe Nathan in addition to trading for Joakim Soria and Jose Veras (to name just a few moves). In the end, the Tigers have wound up with shaky relievers and wilted at various stages of their recent playoff runs. The lone holdovers from previous years that will be locks for next year’s bullpen include Alex Wilson and Al Alburquerque. Bruce Rondon should factor into the mix as well, but he was sent home from the team in rather embarrassing fashion, with the Tigers citing his “effort level” as a reason for the decision. It remains to be seen how he’ll bounce back from that. It’s possible the decision fractured the relationship between player and team, but it’s equally plausible that the drastic maneuver will serve as a wakeup call for the flamethrowing young righty.

The free-agent market this year offers a deep crop of setup men from which to draw. Darren O’Day stands out as the top arm on the market, and the Tigers will no doubt be linked to him in the weeks and months to come. Right-hander Shawn Kelley quietly had a dominant season in San Diego, as his ERA finally lined up with his excellent peripherals. Ryan Madson had a brilliant comeback campaign, and Soria will, of course, be a free agent this winter. The Tigers need lefty help as well, making both Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (each of whom handles both lefties and righties well) attractive targets on two-year deals.

On the trade front, Avila could line up with frequent Tigers trading partner Mike Rizzo of the Nationals. It’s been widely speculated that Drew Storen, who did not take kindly to the team’s acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon, could be dealt this winter. He’d be a one-year rental, as he’ll hit the open market after earning a projected $8.8MM next year. But, Storen has a track record of quality performance, even if many remember him for a pair of disappointing postseason appearances.

A second option with the Nationals could be to take on Papelbon himself. While that could undoubtedly present problems within the clubhouse, Papelbon has a solid season split between the Phillies and Nationals, and Washington would most likely be willing to eat part of his $11MM salary to facilitate a trade in the aftermath of his confrontation with Bryce Harper.

One more expensive bullpen trade candidate could be Mark Melancon, who has enjoyed a dominant run with the Pirates. That success, though, has Melancon’s projected arbitration salary at $10MM, which may be too steep for the cost-conscious Pirates. A trade with Pittsburgh would need to bring more than the salary dump type of deal that sent fellow $10MM closer Jim Johnson from Baltimore to Oakland in the 2013-14 offseason, but Melancon’s value will fall in somewhere south of fellow NL Central stopper Aroldis Chapman. The Reds and Padres could represent theoretical trade partners, but the value of Chapman and Craig Kimbrel is exceptionally high, and the Tigers may not want to part with the necessary prospects to land either elite closer.

With the infield mostly set, a young catcher with starting upside in the form of James McCann (Alex Avila is expected to land elsewhere as a free agent), Victor Martinez penciled in at DH and right field locked down with J.D. Martinez, the team’s biggest need on the position player side is an outfielder. Anthony Gose can handle a good chunk of the center field duties, though he’d require a platoon partner. That could mean a reunion with Rajai Davis — perhaps on a two-year deal similar to the previous one he signed in Detroit — or a lower-key acquisition such as Drew Stubbs. One can also envision a return for Austin Jackson, whose best seasons came in Detroit, though he’d require a larger commitment and may push Gose over to left field.

While the Tigers have Steven Moya and Tyler Collins as in-house options in left, Collins looked like a platoon option at best, while Moya struggled in the Majors and at the Triple-A level. For a team with significant payroll capacity and high 2016 expectations, the best course of action would seem to be giving Moya additional time at the Triple-A level and utilizing Collins as a bench piece. Top-tier names like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward (who would force Martinez to left field) are plausible, though with pitching being a greater priority, they may be deemed too expensive. If that’s the case, second-tier outfield options like Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus make some sense. That’s not to say either will be cheap relative to the rest of the market, just more affordable than the top echelon of free-agent outfielders.

The other big issue for the Tigers this winter will be whether or not they’re able to agree to a long-term deal with J.D. Martinez. The two sides are said to have mutual interest in an extension, but Martinez only has two years of club control left, and thus, isn’t too far removed from free agency. With a projected arbitration salary of $7.8MM and a $3MM salary from 2015 already under his belt, Martinez has already obtained some financial security, so there’s reason for him to simply elect to play out his final two years and hit the open market heading into what would be his age-30 season. If he can maintain anything close to his 2014-15 form, he’d be one of the hottest free agents on the market in two winters — perhaps on the receiving end of a $150MM+ guarantee. Knowing that, Detroit isn’t likely to be able to land him at a hugely discounted rate.

There aren’t many comparables when looking for hitters that signed extensions with between four and five years of service under their belts. Adam Jones is one such case, though his six-year, $85.5MM extension with Baltimore is now three years old, and it was a midseason extension that bought out one arb year and five free-agent seasons. Martinez’s projected second-year arb price of $7.8MM handily tops Jones’ $6.15MM mark, and the market, of course, has taken a huge step forward since May 2012. (Jones’ deal, at the time, was the second-largest contract for a center fielder, clearly illustrating how things have changed.) I’d wager that Martinez’s remaining arb years could be valued at around $21MM, so perhaps a six-year deal that pays him $20-22MM per free-agent year would get talks going. That would put the rough guess for an extension at $100-110MM over six years — an unfathomable sum for Martinez just 18 months ago but one that would be worthwhile if he’s able to maintain his current level of production.

In each of the past two offseasons, the Tigers sought to get their hands on a young, controllable rotation piece that could be slotted into the starting five for the foreseeable future without further bogging down the crowded future payroll. That resulted in disappointing returns from both Robbie Ray and Shane Greene, and it subsequently contributed to the team’s disappointing 2015 campaign. Somewhat ironically, Dombrowski may have finally gotten his man in the form of Norris, but the decision to rebuild may ultimately have cost him his job.

Because of that, it seems likely that Avila will take a more aggressive approach to spending on the pitching staff in his first offseason as GM. While I find a pursuit of Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto too drastic a measure, I’d imagine we’ll see the Tigers mentioned in connection with those names before ultimately landing a pair of mid-rotation arms and multiple relievers. And, given the productive names that proliferate the club’s depth chart on the position-player side of the equation, the Tigers’ return to contention in the AL Central might not take more than a single offseason.

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