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Stark On Lilly, Indians, Astros, Dodgers

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The starting pitching market may be ‘mediocre’ if you ask officials around the major leagues, as ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark did, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t tons of rumors out there with just over a week before the deadline. Here they are:

  • Six teams or more are interested in Ted Lilly, who will almost certainly get traded. The Tigers, Mets and Dodgers have interest, but the Yankees probably won’t be involved. The Cubs are not willing to pick up any of Lilly’s salary and probably won’t have to.
  • The A’s, on the other hand, will pick up much of the $4MM or so remaining on Ben Sheets’ salary and are ready to deal him.
  • The Indians are willing to deal one of Jake Westbrook or Fausto Carmona for a “compelling” package, but not both.
  • They’re also growing more and more confident that they’ll be able to trade Kerry Wood. If they don't strike a deal before the deadline, they could do so after Wood clears waivers in August.
  • The Yankees are kicking tires on many starters, including Westbrook and Dan Haren.
  • The Astros would have to be “overwhelmed” to move Brett Myers (as FOX Sports reported) or Wandy Rodriguez. Myers has a mutual option, so there’s no guarantee he returns in 2011. I find it hard to believe that the Astros wouldn’t deal him for a good-but-not-great group.
  • The Marlins appear to have decided to focus on extending Dan Uggla, instead of trading him.
  • The Dodgers have told rival teams that they have $2-3MM to play with.

Tigers Not Showing Interest In Pudge, Robertson

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The Tigers are not showing interest in re-acquiring Ivan Rodriguez or Nate Robertson for the stretch run, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. 

Tigers catchers have combined to post just a .564 OPS so far in 2010, but manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and Alex DiFilippo that he will mix and match Gerald Laird and Alex Avila for now. There haven't been indications that the Nationals want to trade Pudge, who had a .673 OPS entering the day's action and continues to throw out 42% of would-be base stealers, even at 38.

The Marlins designated Robertson for assignment yesterday, after he allowed seven earned runs against the Rockies. There has been little reported interest in the 32-year-old, but I suggested earlier in the week that he could be a cheap, effective left-handed specialist, especially for a team that doesn't like the thin relief market. The Tigers are interested in relievers, but are apparently eyeing pitchers other than Robertson.

Morosi notes that the Tigers are not pursuing Ryan Theriot, but are keeping tabs on Brandon League, David Aardsma and other relievers.

Odds & Ends: Haren, Cordero, Phillies, Rangers

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Links for Wednesday, as Pedro Alvarez keeps clubbing homers…

White Sox And Tigers Have Inquired On Bautista

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The White Sox and Tigers have inquired on Jose Bautista, as have the Braves and the Giants, according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan (via Twitter). The White Sox are pursuing sluggers including Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder, so their interest comes as no surprise. The Tigers could be eyeing Bautista (who can play third base) partly because of Brandon Inge's fractured hand.

Buster Olney reported today that the Blue Jays are demanding elite young players for Bautista, who leads the major leagues with 26 home runs. The right fielder-third baseman has just less than $1MM remaining on his contract this year, though he'll get a substantial raise through arbitration in 2011, his last season before hitting free agency.

Crasnick On The Bullpen Market

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ESPN's Jerry Crasnick does a nice job profiling the underwhelming market for relievers.  The Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, Phillies, and Twins could be looking to make an acquisition.  A few tidbits…

  • The Astros "will gladly talk about Brandon Lyon, but aren't so interested in discussing Matt Lindstrom."  Lyon is still owed $12.48MM through 2012.
  • Crasnick points out that Octavio Dotel is not a pitcher you want facing lefties.  How about D.J. Carrasco?  He's quietly having another decent year, he's cheap, and he's under team control through 2012.  Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweeted yesterday that at least five teams have inquired.
  • Crasnick finds "the consensus" to be that Mariners closer David Aardsma will be dealt before the deadline.  The Tigers have been linked to the hard-throwing righty, whose ERA is up several runs this year despite his strikeout and walk rates remaining stable.  Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times feels the Mariners would need their socks knocked off to move Aardsma. 
  • Chad Qualls, Clay Hensley, and most of the Brewers' and Royals' pens also merit consideration as trade bait.

Odds & Ends: Piniella, Uggla, Oswalt

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Links for Tuesday, as we wonder if Dave Bush and Nate Robertson are making their last starts for their respective teams…

  • Cubs manager Lou Piniella announced today that he'll retire after the season.  Is Ryne Sandberg next in line? 
  • The Marlins are talking internally about extending second baseman Dan Uggla after the season, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains why a Roy Oswalt trade seems unlikely: his salary, his no-trade clause, and Ed Wade's demands.
  • Before Brandon Inge's injury last night, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports was told the Tigers "have been more aggressive in looking for relievers than starters" (Twitter link).  Here's a reminder on the trade markets for relievers and starters.
  • Two of Morosi's big league sources forecast a 50% chance of the Braves acquiring an outfielder.  As Morosi notes, the Braves have a strong inventory of pitching prospects.
  • One more from Morosi: he says the Rays are "checking around for possible upgrades" at center field, right field, first base, or catcher (Twitter link).  They've been loosely connected to Corey Hart and Jayson Werth this summer.

Teams Scouting John Buck?

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A slew of scouts attended last night's Blue Jays-Royals game in Kansas City, reports Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  The Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were represented.  The Reds and Mets scouted the Jays over the weekend. Clearly some of this scouting extends beyond normal coverage.  Toronto's roster is littered with trade candidates: Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, Jose Bautista, and Lyle Overbay.  But several of the aforementioned teams need catching and may have been on hand to observe All-Star catcher John Buck.

Buck had a pair of doubles in the contest, bringing his line to .278/.309/.504 through 265 plate appearances.  He's flashed power before, but in this season he's slugged at least .462 in every month.  Buck recently turned 30 and will be a free agent after the season.  He just sneaks in as a Type B right now.  It's not difficult to imagine Buck receiving and turning down an arbitration offer, so his status boosts his trade value.  Asher Wojciechowski (Blue Jays) and Drew Vettleson (Rays) were compensation picks at #41 and #42 overall this year, so GM Alex Anthopoulos will presumably aim for a player or package he likes more than that level of draft pick.

Elliott feels that the Tigers, Red Sox, and Reds are teams that might have interest in Buck.

Tigers Inquired On Ted Lilly

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The Tigers inquired about Ted Lilly, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Buster Olney reports that the sides haven’t discussed a deal in over a week, though the left-hander would be a good fit for the Tigers.

The ESPN reporters say the Cubs are communicating with a number of teams about Lilly, who is “very available.” ESPN.com’s Bruce Levine reported yesterday that teams such as the Tigers were pursuing Lilly.

The 34-year-old has a 4.07 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 this season and projects as a Type A free agent. The Tigers could use that kind of arm, since they have had inconsistent production from starters other than Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. At 48-42 the Tigers are tied for second in the AL Central, but like the White Sox and Twins, they could use depth in their rotation.

The Tigers, who would consider adding a shortstop, have had interest in Ryan Theriot before and could inquire about him as well. Last year, the Tigers added left-hander Jarrod Washburn for the stretch run, though he didn't pitch as well as they would have hoped (7.33 ERA in Detroit).

The Dan Haren Market

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Diamondbacks interim GM Jerry Dipoto recently told CBS' Scott Miller, "We're not to the point right now where we're aggressively seeking [a Dan Haren trade]."  Still, it's time for us to summarize the Haren situation.

Contract

Haren signed a four-year, $44.75MM extension in August of 2008 under previous GM Josh Byrnes.  He has $3.45MM left this year, $12.75MM in 2011, $12.75MM in '12, and a $15.5MM club option for '13 with a $3.5MM buyout. In other words, Haren is guaranteed $32.45MM through 2012.  If Haren had never signed the extension and hit free agency after this year at age 30, would he top two years, $29MM plus a club option?  His next dozen starts are a factor, and maybe in this cautious time he wouldn't reach John Lackey money.  But I still view the contract as a bargain relative to the free agent market.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this weekend that Haren's no-trade clause allows him to block trades to a dozen teams, including the Reds.  Rosenthal's source did not feel that Haren's no-trade list would be a factor, however.

Performance

Home runs and hits allowed are up this year for Haren, who has a 4.60 ERA through 20 starts.  Though Haren's groundball rate is down a touch, his continually strong strikeout and walk rates suggest a pitcher capable of a sub-4.00 ERA from here on out.  Since 2006, Haren has posted significantly higher ERAs in the second half.  Is this a reliable trend?  Haren's home run per flyball rate seems to jump every August.  This could be a fluke – the Sabermetrics Library says home run per flyball rates "have little predictive value" year to year.  It doesn't help that Chase Field inflates home runs by about 7%, according to The Bill James Handbook.

Asking Price/Availability

We have no trade history for Dipoto, as he's been a GM for less than a month.  He told Miller he's not sure if trading Haren is smart business, but "what we do know is what value Dan brings to this team and what value he should hold in the market."  All things considered, Haren is probably the best available starting pitcher.  SI's Jon Heyman talked to one GM who described Dipoto's asking price as "two starters plus bullpen help."  Earlier this month, Rosenthal and Bob Nightengale of USA Today both said the D'Backs would need to be "overwhelmed" or "blown away" to trade Haren.  Dipoto was upfront to Miller about his reservations, saying "you might bite off your nose to spite your face" by trading the ace.

Interested Teams

  • Tigers: Miller says they "appeared to be the only club with a scout dispatched solely to bird-dog Haren" Friday night.  Back in May I noted that the Tigers should have over $50MM to play with for 2011 if they hold payroll steady, so they could afford Haren.  The Tigers have plenty of young starters that would appeal to the D'Backs.
  • Cardinals: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cards have interest in bringing Haren back and do have payroll capacity.  Still, they'd be committing half their payroll to the rotation in 2011.
  • Rockies: Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post doesn't feel that they'd overpay for Haren.
  • Yankees: A case could be made for the Yanks adding Haren.  However, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that their top two priorities are improving the bench and adding a reliever.
  • Phillies: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick said they have Haren on the radar, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News wondered if they'd even have the prospects to pull it off. 
  • Nationals: MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported on June 30th that they had expressed interest.  GM Mike Rizzo craves "premier, front-line starting pitching."  With Haren, the Nats would have a fearsome rotation in short order.
  • Angels: Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times finds Haren to be "a natural trade target" for the Halos.
  • I imagine other clubs would be interested.  In my opinion, the White Sox, Brewers, Twins, Mets, and Padres could be fits, though the field becomes limited when you consider Arizona's asking price. 

Odds & Ends: Nationals, Lilly, Haren, Marlins, Kotsay

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