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Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Yankees Activate Domingo German; Jameson Taillon Begins Rehab Assignment

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The Yankees have reinstated right-hander Domingo Germán from the 10-day injured list. Outfielder Estevan Florial was optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move. Additionally, New York announced that Jameson Taillon will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Scranton this evening.

Germán returns after missing nearly two months due to shoulder inflammation. He’d been a reliable back-of-the-rotation option for the Yankees over the season’s first few months, tossing 97 innings of 4.45 ERA ball over 21 appearances (including 18 starts). The 29-year-old has posted solid strikeout and walk numbers, contributing to a more appealing 4.02 SIERA, but he’s been a little too prone to the home run ball.

While Germán served almost exclusively as a starter earlier this year, he seems likely to work from the bullpen for the stretch run. With the regular season dwindling, the Yankees sent Germán on a rather brief rehab assignment in which he made two appearances with the RailRiders. He topped out at 35 pitches in his last outing, so he seems likely to occupy a similar multi-inning relief role to the one Luis Severino took on last night.

Taillon has only been away from the club for two weeks because of a partially torn tendon in his right ankle. Given that shorter absence, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s back in the majors after a lone rehab start. Acquired from the Pirates over the offseason, Taillon has a 4.41 ERA/4.29 SIERA in his first year in the Bronx.

The Yankees enter play tonight half a game back in a jam-packed American League Wild Card race. After tonight’s series finale against the Rangers, they’ll play road series against the two clubs directly ahead of them in standings — the Red Sox and Blue Jays — before closing out the year at home against a Rays team that looks likely to have clinched the AL East by that point.

Yankees Notes: Cole, Montgomery, Sanchez, Rizzo, German

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In the wake of another COVID-19 outbreak in the Yankees clubhouse, some of the impacted players are preparing to return to the field.  Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of The New York Daily News) that Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery will be activated from the COVID-related injury list to start the Yankees’ next two games.  Cole will face the Angels on Monday, while Montgomery will face the Red Sox on Tuesday in one half of a doubleheader.

Additionally, catcher Gary Sanchez started a Double-A rehab assignment today, and could potentially be activated for one of those games against the Red Sox.  “We’ll see if we want to do another rehab game with them, potentially on Tuesday, but the idea would be he plays [today] and then come be with us tomorrow and work out, have a full day with us and then we’ll kind of evaluate the next step,” Boone said.

Six players are currently on the COVID list, which only added to roster issues for the injury-riddled Yankees.  Despite all these absences, however, the Yankees have been one of baseball’s hottest teams, with a 19-9 record since the All-Star break.

Anthony Rizzo was a big part of that hot streak, batting .281/.400/.563 in his first 40 plate appearances in the pinstripes since being acquired by the Cubs at the trade deadline.  Rizzo was also hit by a positive COVID test, and after over a week away, will begin to take steps towards returning to the field by undergoing cardiac testing on Monday.

Domingo German has been sidelined by right shoulder inflammation since August 1, and the right-hander tossed a bullpen session yesterday to continue his recovery process.  Boone said German threw all fastballs yesterday and will add more pitches in his next bullpen, which could take place as early as Monday.

Yankees Place Domingo German On 10-Day Injured List

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The Yankees placed right-hander Domingo German on the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game, as German is suffering from inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  Righty Albert Abreu was called up from Triple-A to fill the spot on the active roster.

German started New York’s 4-2 win over the Marlins last night, lasting four innings and 66 pitches before being removed for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth.  It was German’s 18th start in 21 appearances this season, with all three of those relief appearances coming since June 19.  Over German’s last nine outings, only one has lasted beyond five innings — his seven-inning, 93-pitch start against the Red Sox on July 25.

With Andrew Heaney just acquired from the Angels, the Yankees were hoping to have a full rotation in place but they’ve been again left shorthanded due to injury.  It isn’t yet known if German’s injury is fairly minor or if he’ll be out longer than the minimum 10 days, which could run him into the projected late August/early September timelines for Corey Kluber and Luis Severino.  While these recovery timelines could be altered or future injuries could further change plans, the Yankees are hoping to have a surplus of rotation options down the stretch, so German might ultimately end up in the bullpen.

German missed the entire 2020 season while serving an 81-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence policy.  The right-hander has a 4.45 ERA/4.01 SIERA over 97 innings this year, with slightly below-average strikeout and hard-hit ball rates.

Yankees Option Domingo German

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The Yankees optioned Domingo German to their alternate site following today’s game, the team announced. A corresponding roster move has not yet been announced.

German’s first start on the season came on April 4th against the Blue Jays. The 28-year-old surrendered three runs in three innings, including a pair of home runs. It was German’s first start since posting 2.0 fWAR during the 2019 season. He went four innings today against the Rays giving up another pair of long balls. His entire line featured eight hits, one walk, four earned runs and five strikeouts.

The Yankees have not been getting much length out of their starters during their current three-game losing streak. As much as this move may very well be about German, the Yankees may also just want to add a fresh arm. Corey Kluber went just 2 1/3 innings on Friday, a game after Jameson Taillon was bumped after 4 2/3 innings in a game that went to extras.

Pitcher Notes: Dodgers, Gray, E-Rod, Yankees, Fiers

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The Dodgers are still deciding among fifth starter options, manager Dave Roberts informed Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Friday. Southpaw David Price is competing against righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, who impressed as rookies during the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series-winning campaign. As a five-time All-Star and a former AL Cy Young winner, Price certainly carries the best track record of the three – not to mention the highest salary – but he didn’t pitch at all last season after opting out over COVID-19 concerns. Any of those three would join Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías in what will be a loaded season-opening starting five.

The latest on a few more pitchers around the game:

  • Reds righty Sonny Gray, who has been dealing with a back problem for a couple of weeks, came out of a sim game unscathed Friday, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. After throwing two innings and 30 pitches, Gray said, “I felt good. It was definitely a step in the right direction.” Gray will start the season on the injured list, but he doesn’t expect to miss much time. That’s uplifting news for a Reds starting staff that lost the aforementioned Bauer during the offseason.
  • Eduardo Rodríguez was recently set back by a dead arm but seemed to make some progress this morning. The Red Sox left-hander came out of a bullpen session feeling good about his chances of soon returning to game action, although a season-opening injured list stint remains a possibility (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com and Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Manager Alex Cora says the club will evaluate how Rodríguez feels tomorrow before making any decisions about his recovery timeline.
  • The Yankees have optioned right-hander Deivi García to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, according to a team announcement. The move suggests Domingo Germán will enter the season as the No. 5 in the Yankees’ rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery, though odds are that García will make his share of starts this season. The 21-year-old, a former top 100 prospect, made his debut last season with a 4.98 ERA/4.21 SIERA with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate against a stingy 4.1 percent walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.
  • Athletics righty Mike Fiers will begin the season on the injured list, manager Bob Melvin announced to Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters. Fiers has been dealing with left hip inflammation since midway through the month and hasn’t faced live hitters during his recovery. His injury could open the door for any of Daulton Jefferies, Cole Irvin or A.J. Puk to at least temporarily join the A’s rotation. Fiers tied for the A’s lead in starts (11) and finished second in innings (59) last season, but he struggled to a 4.58 ERA/5.41 SIERA and managed a personal-worst 14.4 percent K rate.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

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Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLB Reinstates Domingo German

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Major League Baseball has reinstated Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German from the restricted list, the team announced. German is on the Yankees 40-man roster, but no changes were needed to accommodate the move. He is not eligible for postseason play, so as has been stated previously, he will not appear in the majors this season.

German served an 81-game suspension this season after violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Prior to the suspension, German had made himself into a key cog of the Yankees’ 2019 rotation by posting a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. German could again play himself into competition for a rotation spot in 2021. He turns 29-years-old in August of next season.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole stationed atop their next year’s rotation, but both James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are scheduled to be free agents, while J.A. Happ has a $17MM mutual option. Deivi Garcia is set to take over one rotation spot, they’ll hope to get Luis Severino back to fill another, and Jordan Montgomery should warrant consideration as well. All that said, the Yankees know better than most about the importance of rotation depth.

Domingo German Won’t Pitch In 2020

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Yankees right-hander Domingo German, who’s serving the remainder of an 81-game suspension Major League Baseball handed him in January, may have been able to help the club during the postseason this fall. However, manager Aaron Boone said Monday that German won’t have enough time to ramp up for the playoffs, meaning he won’t pitch in 2020, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. The Yankees expect German to return for spring training next year.

German was a key part of the Yankees’ rotation last year, during which he notched a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 in 143 innings, but he hasn’t pitched in just over 12 months (Sept. 18, 2019) on account of a violation of Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. The 28-year-old German then seemed to hint at retirement in July before walking those comments back.

Aside from Gerrit Cole, the Yankees appear to lack shoo-ins for the 2021 rotation, so German could re-enter the unit – especially with Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ on the brink of free agency. But the Yankees are at least on track to welcome back Luis Severino, who missed all of this season because of Tommy John surgery, while Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery are among those who could compete with German for spots.

Latest On Domingo German

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TODAY: German clarified his position another Instagram post, saying that “Baseball is my life, and I am not walking away” from the sport.  German apologized for his original “unsettling post,” saying that “not being ready with my teammates while they get ready for the season, knowing that I have let them down, has taken a toll on me and last night I let my emotions get the best of me.”

JULY 17: Yankees pitcher Domingo German has stated his intention to leave the sport in a series of posts on his Instagram page. “Me fui del baseball,” he wrote in an apparent indication of retirement.

German, who’ll soon turn 28, is still serving the remainder of an 81-game suspension for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. He would not have been able to complete the suspension in time to pitch in the regular season in 2020, though he’d have technically been eligible for postseason play having already been sidelined for the 2019 playoffs.

It’s not clear what specifically prompted German’s evident decision. Neither is it known whether there’s any chance of a change of heart. Presumably, he’ll continue to serve out the remainder of the suspension while residing on the restricted list. Barring some roster decision by the team, the door will theoretically remain open for a return to the sport.

German has just over two years of MLB service at the moment. If he finished his suspension and pitched in the majors for all of the 2021 season, he would be able to reach a full third year of service and qualify for arbitration. Through 243 career innings, German carries a 4.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

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