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MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

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Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLB Reinstates Domingo German

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Major League Baseball has reinstated Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German from the restricted list, the team announced. German is on the Yankees 40-man roster, but no changes were needed to accommodate the move. He is not eligible for postseason play, so as has been stated previously, he will not appear in the majors this season.

German served an 81-game suspension this season after violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Prior to the suspension, German had made himself into a key cog of the Yankees’ 2019 rotation by posting a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. German could again play himself into competition for a rotation spot in 2021. He turns 29-years-old in August of next season.

The Yankees have Gerrit Cole stationed atop their next year’s rotation, but both James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are scheduled to be free agents, while J.A. Happ has a $17MM mutual option. Deivi Garcia is set to take over one rotation spot, they’ll hope to get Luis Severino back to fill another, and Jordan Montgomery should warrant consideration as well. All that said, the Yankees know better than most about the importance of rotation depth.

Domingo German Won’t Pitch In 2020

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Yankees right-hander Domingo German, who’s serving the remainder of an 81-game suspension Major League Baseball handed him in January, may have been able to help the club during the postseason this fall. However, manager Aaron Boone said Monday that German won’t have enough time to ramp up for the playoffs, meaning he won’t pitch in 2020, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. The Yankees expect German to return for spring training next year.

German was a key part of the Yankees’ rotation last year, during which he notched a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 in 143 innings, but he hasn’t pitched in just over 12 months (Sept. 18, 2019) on account of a violation of Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. The 28-year-old German then seemed to hint at retirement in July before walking those comments back.

Aside from Gerrit Cole, the Yankees appear to lack shoo-ins for the 2021 rotation, so German could re-enter the unit – especially with Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ on the brink of free agency. But the Yankees are at least on track to welcome back Luis Severino, who missed all of this season because of Tommy John surgery, while Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery are among those who could compete with German for spots.

Latest On Domingo German

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TODAY: German clarified his position another Instagram post, saying that “Baseball is my life, and I am not walking away” from the sport.  German apologized for his original “unsettling post,” saying that “not being ready with my teammates while they get ready for the season, knowing that I have let them down, has taken a toll on me and last night I let my emotions get the best of me.”

JULY 17: Yankees pitcher Domingo German has stated his intention to leave the sport in a series of posts on his Instagram page. “Me fui del baseball,” he wrote in an apparent indication of retirement.

German, who’ll soon turn 28, is still serving the remainder of an 81-game suspension for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. He would not have been able to complete the suspension in time to pitch in the regular season in 2020, though he’d have technically been eligible for postseason play having already been sidelined for the 2019 playoffs.

It’s not clear what specifically prompted German’s evident decision. Neither is it known whether there’s any chance of a change of heart. Presumably, he’ll continue to serve out the remainder of the suspension while residing on the restricted list. Barring some roster decision by the team, the door will theoretically remain open for a return to the sport.

German has just over two years of MLB service at the moment. If he finished his suspension and pitched in the majors for all of the 2021 season, he would be able to reach a full third year of service and qualify for arbitration. Through 243 career innings, German carries a 4.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Bauer’s Sandlot Game, Yankees, German, Astros, Verlander

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The enigmatic Trevor Bauer isn’t letting a state of emergency stop him from playing baseball, per his Twitter account. Bauer is organizing a “sandlot” game for any interested MLB or MiLB  players still in Arizona, complete with mandatory mics for all players involved for streaming across his social channels. While the wisdom of such a gathering may be at odds with directives of social distancing, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in watching Bauer spearhead, well, anything, really, but especially a sandlot-style ballgame as the rest of the sporting world is in shut down. More than half of his Reds’ teammates have left camp, per The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, but many players from the Reds and other organizations remain in Arizona. Let’s check in on how else the virus might be affecting the ramp-up to the 2020 season…

  • Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German, currently suspended for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, will have his own return delayed in step with the MLB season, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff offers clarification on the terms of German’s suspension, which will keep him on the shelf for the first 81 games of the 2020 season, whenever the season begins. Because the terms of the suspension are classified in games, there’s little wiggle room for German even if the season should be further delayed or truncated due to the spread of COVID-19. German had his best season to date in 2019, going 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP across 143 innings of work, striking out 9.6 K/9 versus 2.5 BB/9.
  • The Astros might be see the biggest benefit of a delayed season as it gives their ace Justin Verlander time to heal, writes MLB.com’s Ricard Justice. The Astros have a difficult season ahead, and Verlander is arguably the most important player for the defending American League champs. Verlander’s lat strain had put his opening day start in question, but with an extra month (and perhaps more) to heal, the Astros’ will certainly benefit in getting Verlander back earlier, even if he’s not ready whenever the season does actually kick off.

Domingo German Suspended 81 Games

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1:45pm: The league has issued German an 81-game suspension, Hannah Keyser of Yahoo Sports reports. The suspension’s retroactive to last September, meaning German will sit the first 63 games of 2020. He will not appeal the ban, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic tweets.

1:15pm: Yankees right-hander Domingo German’s future has hung in limbo since Major League Baseball placed him on administrative leave Sept. 19 for a violation of its domestic violence policy. Now, almost four months later, a resolution is seemingly on the way. The league’s decision isn’t far off, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who reports German is facing a “significant suspension” that should last longer than a month.

The 27-year-old German was amid a solid season in 2019 before his off-field actions brought an end to it shortly before the playoffs. As part of a Yankees rotation that faced plenty of questions throughout the season, German was a stabilizing presence, as he posted a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings.

Looking ahead to next season, it’s unclear which role German will fill should he return to the Yankees. They’ve added Gerrit Cole in free agency, and he’ll front a rotation that also counts Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as locks. There appears to be room for German to vie for the No. 5 spot if New York welcomes him back, but J.A. Happ (if he’s not traded) and Jordan Montgomery (who missed almost all of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery) look like the top options for that role right now.

Latest On Domingo German

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Yankees right-hander Domingo German enjoyed a quality 2019 season before it ended in undignified fashion in late September. German went on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, thus preventing him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff series against the Twins and Astros. Although the league still hasn’t interviewed German, a resolution to his case should occur “in a matter of weeks,” not months, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post write.

As is always the case with a player involved in a domestic issue, it’s up in the air whether his team will welcome him back. However, the Yankees are the same club that acquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in December 2015 when he was amid serious domestic troubles of his own. The league ultimately suspended Chapman for 30 games to open the 2016 season. Now, regardless of whether the Yankees keep German, he could face a ban to start the 2020 campaign after sitting out the last couple weeks of 2019.

The status of German may help inform the Yankees’ offseason plans, as he was one of the team’s most effective rotation options in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. The Yankees look like a team in need of starting help right now, and the problems in their rotation will become even more acute if they’re unwilling or unable to pencil German into the group for at least the beginning of next season.

Domingo German’s Administrative Leave Extended Through World Series

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Sept. 25: The league announced today that German’s administrative leave has been extended through the conclusion of the World Series. He officially will not pitch in the postseason.

Sept. 20: Yankees right-hander Domingo German, who was placed on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, won’t pitch another inning in 2019, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter). That includes both the regular season and the postseason. Olney notes that the case is not yet “fully resolved administratively.” SNY’s Andy Martino further reports that there is a “strong possibility” of a “significant” suspension being issued to German within the next week.

Per Martino, the domestic incident in question involved German’s girlfriend and took place late Monday/early Tuesday after CC Sabathia’s charity gala. Bob Klapisch of the New York Times tweeted yesterday that German had allegedly slapped his girlfriend and that an official from the Commissioner’s Office had witnessed the incident. Martino’s report suggests that it was not an MLB official who witnessed the incident, but the evidence presented to both the league and player’s union was substantial enough that the MLBPA opted not to exercise its right to challenge German’s placement on administrative leave.

The length of any potential suspension for German seemingly has yet to be determined. Prior examples of suspensions under the league’s policy have come with a wide range depending on the severity of the incidents in question. On one end of the spectrum, former Padres left-hander Jose Torres received a 100-game suspension in 2018 following an arrest, and Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera was suspended 85 games earlier this summer under the policy. Meanwhile, Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright received a lighter 15-game ban early in the 2018 season.

The most extreme punishments under the still relatively new policy have both come on the heels of arrests and criminal charges, neither of which exist in the case of German. The very manner in which MLB was made aware of the allegations against German make his case unique, and that lack of precedent makes it difficult to speculate on the duration of a potential suspension.

Domingo German Placed On Administrative Leave Under Domestic Violence Policy

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1:04pm: The Yankees announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Michael King to fill German’s spot on the 40-man and active rosters. King pitched 46 innings across four minor league levels in 2019 but hasn’t appeared in a game since Sept. 1.

12:43pm: Yankees right-hander Domingo German has been placed on administrative leave under the Joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy, the league announced Thursday. Details surrounding any allegations against German have yet to surface. The Yankees have issued the following statement on the matter:

We fully support all measures being undertaken by the Commissioner’s Office pursuant to the Policy on Domestic Violence. We support this policy which reinforces that domestic violence has no place in our society and cannot be tolerated. We have followed the lead of Major League Baseball and will continue to provide our complete cooperation throughout the investigative process. We reserve any further comment until the investigation reaches its conclusion. All questions pertaining to this matter should be directed to the Office of the Commissioner.

Players placed on administrative leave are paid during their absence unless a suspension is deemed necessary by the Commissioner’s Office, at which point pay issued during said leave is rescinded. The standard period of length for administrative leave is seven days, although the league can continue to extend that period as required by the status of the investigation as it unfolds.

If German is indeed disciplined, any suspension would leave him on the restricted list during the Yankees’ forthcoming postseason run, marking a costly loss for the AL East champions. German, who turned 27 last month, has given the club 143 innings of 4.03 ERA ball while averaging 9.6 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings pitched.

Further details on the situation will be provided as they emerge.

Pitcher Notes: Carrasco, Scherzer, German

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The latest on a few notable right-handers…

  • The Indians’ Carlos Carrasco took a significant step Friday toward returning to a major league mound, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com explains. Carrasco, out since the end of May because of a leukemia diagnosis, threw his first live batting practice session, tossing 25 pitches to Single-A hitters. The Indians are deciding on a next step for Carrasco, who still doesn’t have a timetable for a return. Regardless of whether the 32-year-old does come back this season, manager Terry Francona said what Carrasco accomplished Friday was “a huge boost to him.”
  • The Nationals had hope that ace Max Scherzer would come off the injured list this weekend, but that isn’t going to happen, Eddie Matz of ESPN.com reports. Scherzer, shelved since July 25 with a mild rhomboid strain, still has to build his arm up more before he slots back into Washington’s rotation. He threw a 60-pitch simulated game this past Tuesday and will aim for “75, 80 pitches” on Saturday, according to manager Dave Martinez. If that goes well, it seems quite possible Scherzer will come off the IL sometime next week. The three-time Cy Young winner’s injury issues have limited him to just two starts since the beginning of July.
  • Yankees righty Domingo German has thrown 120 innings between the majors and minors this year, putting him on pace to eclipse the professional-high 123 2/3 he amassed in 2017. The starter-needy, World Series hopeful Yankees are unlikely to limit German’s workload, though, in part because he missed three weeks earlier this season with a hip flexor strain, George A. King III of the New York Post writes. “There are no innings limits when you are in October. All safeties are off,” general manager Brian Cashman said, adding that German “already has had a timeout.” The 24-year-old German has been one of the top options in a shaky New York rotation this season, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA/4.64 FIP with 9.62 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 over 116 MLB frames.
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