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Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Cards, Arenado, Beltran

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The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series in seven games to a franchise that’s now embroiled in one of the biggest scandals in baseball history. The Astros, who defeated the Dodgers, fired the GM (Jeff Luhnow) and manager (A.J. Hinch) of their championship team Monday after the league determined they were key figures in a sign-stealing scandal from that year. Luhnow and Hinch received one-year suspensions before the Astros dismissed them, while the tea also lost four draft picks (first- and second-rounders in each of the next two years) and earned the maximum fine of $5MM. The Dodgers could perhaps feel slighted as a result of the Astros’ misdeeds, but the organization is prohibited from making any complaints known. The team issued a statement Monday, saying: “All clubs have been asked by Major League Baseball not to comment on today’s punishment of the Houston Astros, as it’s inappropriate to comment on discipline imposed on another club. The Dodgers have also been asked not to comment on any wrongdoing during the 2017 World Series and will have no further comment at this time.”

More from the National League…

  • The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in preliminary negotiations centering on Rox superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been on St. Louis’ radar for years. They’ve held talks with Colorado “at least dating back” to December 2018, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. A few months later, the Rockies extended Arenado for seven years and $234MM on a deal that will kick in this season. That money, not to mention Arenado’s no-trade rights and his ability to opt out after 2021, could help prevent an acquisition from materializing for the Cardinals or anyone else. The Cards haven’t been willing to meet the Rockies’ asking price for Arenado in the past, per Goold, though it’s unclear what Colorado asked for in return. Now, as you’d expect, Goold notes that the Cardinals are unwilling to trade young ace Jack Flaherty and also seem unlikely to part with high-end outfield prospect Dylan Carlson.
  • New Mets manager Carlos Beltran, a member of the Houston team in 2017, was part of the league’s investigation into the Astros. MLB did not issue him any punishment, however, after he was gave the league his full cooperation “and admitted to everything,” Andy Martino of SNY tweets. It seems Beltran changed his tune since the league’s investigation started in November, though, as he initially denied any knowledge of violations on the Astros’ part.

NL Notes: Cervelli, Carlson, Garcia, Musgrove

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The latest from the National League…

  • The Marlins are trying to work out a contract with catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Injuries have plagued Cervelli over the last several seasons, most notably (and seriously) a series of concussions.  Cervelli was limited to only 48 games for the Pirates and Braves in 2019 due to concussion symptoms, yet it was as recently as 2018 that Cervelli hit .259/.378/.431 with 12 homers over 404 plate appearances for Pittsburgh.  The 33-year-old backstop (notably, a former Yankees teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter) would act as a veteran backup to Jorge Alfaro in Miami.
  • Saturday’s trade between the Cardinals and Rangers that sent Adolis Garcia to Texas had roots at the Winter Meetings, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, as the Cards were known to be shopping their surplus of right-handed hitting outfielders.  With this “head start on talks” about Garcia, the Cardinals expected Texas or another club to step up with a suitable trade offer when Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week.  Moving Garcia eliminated one name from a still-crowded Cardinals outfield, so more moves could still be in the offing for St. Louis.  One player who doesn’t seem likely to be moved is top prospect Dylan Carlson, as the Cardinals unsurprisingly “have had near zero interest in including” Carlson in any trade talks this winter.
  • Though the demand for pitching continues to increase and the Pirates could be entering into something of a rebuild period under new GM Ben Cherington, right-hander Joe Musgrove might not be a trade candidate, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  “I seriously doubt [the Pirates] would talk about him.  They may say they’d talk about him, but they’re not going to trade him,” a official on a rival team told Olney.  Musgrove just turned 27 and is arbitration-eligible for only the first time, projected by MLBTR to earn $3.4MM.  That’s a more than affordable price for the low-payroll Bucs, considering that Musgrove posted a 4.44 ERA, 4.03 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 over 170 1/3 innings last season, and generated 5.5 fWAR in 2018-19.  The Blue Jays are one team known to have discussed Musgrove in trade talks this winter, though those discussions reportedly amounted to little.

NL Notes: Vazquez, Crick, Tomas, Nats, Cardinals

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Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez initiated the fight he and teammate Kyle Crick engaged in Monday, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. The altercation began when Crick declined to turn off music that was playing at his locker when Vazquez asked him to, according to Wilborn. Vazquez then threw the initial punch at Crick after challenging Crick to hit him first. Both players wound up suffering injuries – Crick had to undergo season-ending finger surgery, while Vazquez needed stitches on his nose – and incurring team-imposed fines. The Pirates docked Vazquez $10K and Crick $2,500, but Crick told Wilborn he’s filing a grievance because he was acting in self-defense. “If we were on the street, this would’ve been assault,” Crick said. “I got swung at twice before I swung back.”

As Pittsburgh nears the end of an increasingly disastrous season, let’s check in on a few other NL clubs…

  • Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas has owned one of the richest contracts in the organization since he signed a six-year, $68.5MM pact out of Cuba in December 2014. Tomas hasn’t lived up to the considerable hype that accompanied the deal, though, and has spent almost the entire past two seasons at the Triple-A level as a result. As Zach Buchanan of The Athletic explains (subscription required), it doesn’t seem Tomas’ situation will change as he closes out his contract in 2020. Tomas will collect a $17MM salary no matter where he plays next year, but agent Jay Alou told Buchanan that his client is “frustrated” with his status and wants to return to the game’s highest level. That’s probably not going to happen in Arizona, however, in part because the team has concerns over Tomas’ outfield defense. Furthermore, Buchanan writes that the 28-year-old is way down the organizational pecking order at first base, leaving him without an obvious position in a league devoid of a DH. Worsening matters for Tomas, finding a trade partner for an expensive, defensively weak slugger who hasn’t produced much at the plate would be a difficult task for the Diamondbacks. Nevertheless, Alou’s surprised the D-backs haven’t gotten someone to take Tomas. “I just find it difficult there isn’t a team out there willing to pay a little bit of it,” Alou said of his contract.
  • Nationals first baseman Matt Adams left the team’s game Thursday with a tweaked triceps, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. The Nationals should know more on Adams’ status Friday. Should Adams miss time, Washington would be without half of its typical first base platoon (Ryan Zimmerman’s the other member). While Adams has provided the Nats’ offense with 20 home runs, he has nonetheless hit just .226/.278/.475 through 320 plate appearances.
  • Standout Cardinals prospect Dylan Carlson had been set to play in the Arizona Fall League this year, but that plan has changed, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Mark Saxon of The Athletic. The soon-to-be 21-year-old outfielder will instead stay in his native California to “work on adding strength,” Saxon writes, as Mozeliak doesn’t think there’s anything more for Carlson to accomplish on the field this season. Carlson, who tore up Double-A and Triple-A this year, could be on the fast track to a major league promotion in early 2020.

Cardinals Not Planning On September Promotion For Dylan Carlson

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While the Cardinals appear to be more excited than ever about top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the club isn’t giving consideration to promoting him to the majors in the month of September.

As ever, it should be noted that plans can always change. The 20-year-old’s present capabilities are already known well to the Cards, so he’s not likely to change the situation by his play. But it’s possible an injury or other development at the MLB level could create a surprise need.

As Goold notes, Carlson does not need to be added to the 40-man roster in advance of the December Rule 5 draft, so putting him there now would constrain the club. It seems only a run of misfortune involving existing players, or a major change of heart, would create the circumstances for a Carlson promotion. But we have seen that sort of thing occur, as when the Nationals surprisingly promoted Victor Robles back in 2017.

Regardless of how things shake out late in 2019, Goold says that the Cardinals will allow Carlson a full shot to compete in camp next year for a significant role at the major-league level. Service-time considerations and other factors will obviously weigh into the decision; the 20-year-old likely has a high standard to clear to head north out of camp.

While it would still rate as a surprise to see Carlson on the Opening Day roster, particularly if he doesn’t end up seeing any big-league time this year, it seems the St. Louis org isn’t shying away from putting expectations and dangling opportunity in front of the highly regarded prospect. Carlson has already laid waste to upper-minors pitching this year, turning in a .281/.364/.518 batting line at Double-A (which isn’t a hitter-friendly stop on the circuit) and slashing .385/.439/.654 since arriving at Triple-A (good for a 164 wRC+ even in the offensively prolific Pacific Coast League).

As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak puts it, Carlson “does it all” and is a “very complete player.” While prospect evaluators haven’t really hyped Carlson as one of the top pre-MLB players in baseball, Mozeliak says Carlson’s showing this year at Double-A suggests he’s “truly an elite player.”

The focus now is obviously on the Cards’ efforts to win a division title. But it’s hard not to look ahead. The club has already undergone immense change in the outfield in recent years and figures to have more on the way. Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent. Dexter Fowler will be a significant part of the mix (barring a trade). Otherwise, there are a large number of possibilities — Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, Rangel Ravelo, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, and others — but little in the way of clear answers.

It’s likely some players will end up in other organizations, whether that occurs over the offseason or in Spring Training. Keeping Carlson off of the 40-man will help preserve options. But his presence in the organization could ultimately allow the Cards to be more aggressive in parting with other young outfielders, perhaps opening the door to improvements in other areas of the roster.

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