Orioles Select Emmanuel Rivera, Designate Kyle Tyler
The Orioles announced a trio of roster moves, including the selection of Emmanuel Rivera‘s contract from Triple-A Norfolk. To make room on the 26-man and 40-man rosters, outfielder Dylan Carlson was optioned to Triple-A, and right-hander Kyle Tyler was designated for assignment.
Rivera’s arrival seems like a direct response to Jordan Westburg‘s finger injury, which forced him to make an early exit from yesterday’s game. Westburg jammed his left index finger during a stolen base attempt last weekend and missed three games in recovery, though his attempt to return to action was short-lived. Interim manager Tony Mansolino told reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Jacob Calvin Meyer) that Westburg may again miss a “couple of days” but the injured list isn’t a consideration.
If Westburg is able to return in short order, Rivera will at least get to celebrate his birthday with his Orioles teammates, as the infielder turns 29 tomorrow. Rivera is no stranger to roster shuffles, as he is out of minor league options and has been designated for assignment four times since the start of the 2024 season — once apiece by the Diamondbacks and Marlins in 2024, and twice this year by the Orioles. The first two of those DFAs saw Rivera change teams via trade and then claim, whereas this year, the O’s have twice outrighted Rivera to Triple-A after he cleared waivers.
Rivera has hit .232/.303/.275 over 76 plate appearances with Baltimore this season, which is a step back even from his modest .243/.306/.363 career slash line in 1118 PA and 365 MLB games. Rivera has primarily played third base over his five big league seasons, so he can provide some depth at the hot corner while Westburg is sidelined.
Tyler is another veteran of the DFA process, as a whirlwind stretch of transactions in March-April 2022 saw Tyler join four different teams on waiver claims. The Phillies also claimed Tyler away from the Marlins in August 2024, and the Orioles claimed him from Philadelphia less than two weeks ago after the right-hander was designated yet again.
Tyler has a 4.31 ERA over 48 career innings in the majors but he has yet to see any big league work this year. With a 4.19 ERA over 66 2/3 combined innings with the Phillies’ and Orioles’ Triple-A affiliates, Tyler might well find himself on the move again to another team in need of some rotation or long relief depth.
Orioles Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day IL, Designate Kyle Gibson
The Orioles have placed outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day injured list due to a left shoulder impingement, and designated right-hander Kyle Gibson for assignment. Outfielder Dylan Carlson and right-hander Kade Strowd were called up from Triple-A in the corresponding roster moves.
After signing a three-year, $49.5MM free agent deal this past winter, the early days of O’Neill’s tenure in Baltimore have been marked by injuries and a subpar performance at the plate. This is already his second IL trip, as he previously missed a couple of weeks due to neck soreness in late April and early May. It is fair to wonder if these health issues have led to O’Neill’s modest .188/.280/.325 slash line and two home runs over 93 plate appearances, as O’Neill just hasn’t looked like himself this year.
Being hampered by injuries has been a frequent subplot of O’Neill’s eight-year MLB career, as the outfielder has only twice topped the 100-game mark in a season. One of those comparatively healthier seasons came with the Red Sox in 2024, as O’Neill made 473 PA over 113 games and hit .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs. O’Neill hit the IL on three separate occasions but with a minimal amount of missed time, which allowed O’Neill plenty of opportunity to mash at Fenway Park.
The O’s were impressed enough to bring O’Neill aboard in what was the most expensive signing of Baltimore’s offseason, yet like so many other moves in what is becoming a Murphy’s Law year for the Orioles, O’Neill has yet to deliver much at the plate. Given how much criticism was directed at the front office and at ownership for not spending over the winter, the struggles of one of the players who did receive a healthy contract has only added to the discord of the Orioles’ 15-29 start.
Gibson was another offseason signing, though he joined the O’s just a week before Opening Day on a one-year, $5.25MM contract. The Cardinals declined their $12MM club option on Gibson’s services for the 2025 season, sending the veteran starter into the open market for what ended up being an extended stay. Since he didn’t have a proper Spring Training, Gibson agreed to begin the season in the minors so he could ramp up, but it seems like the right-hander is still showing plenty of rust.
Called up to the Orioles’ roster in late April, Gibson has been tagged for a 16.78 ERA over four starts and 12 1/3 innings. The ugly numbers include six runs allowed in just two-thirds of an inning in yesterday’s start, which ended up as a 10-6 Orioles loss to the Nationals.
Gibson was blunt about his lack of performance when speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other media yesterday, saying “four times taking the mound feeling like you haven’t given the team a chance to win each time is a pretty big gut punch. Feeling like you’re part of getting a manager fired is a gut punch. Just not going out there and being able to compete and give the team a chance to win every five days is frustrating. So yeah, I don’t know if any of you guys have ever felt the feeling of essentially letting down your co-workers, but it’s a gut punch.”
The DFA doesn’t necessarily mean that Gibson’s time in Baltimore is over. Since there is no chance another team will claim the right-hander (and assume the rest of his salary) off waivers, Gibson could accept an outright assignment to Triple-A to give himself more time to get on track. Gibson also has more than enough MLB service time to decline an outright assignment, which would allow him to retain his salary and re-enter free agency again.
Strowd is now back with the Orioles for the second time within the last month, though the right-hander has yet to officially make his Major League debut with an in-game appearance. A 12th-round pick for Baltimore in the 2019 draft, Strowd’s minor league numbers aren’t great, as he has only a 6.99 ERA over 56 2/3 career frames at the Triple-A level. That performance does come with a 31.02% strikeout rate and grounder rates that frequently top the 50% mark, but also a 12.41% walk rate.
Despite the rough bottom-line results, the Orioles were intrigued enough by Strowd’s ability to miss bats to add him to the 40-man roster last November in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. This latest call-up should at least allow the righty to get a big league appearance on his resume, and given Baltimore’s pitching needs, there’s plenty of opportunity for Strowd to stick if he pitches decently well during however long he remains on the roster.
Orioles Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day Injured List
The Orioles announced that outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to neck inflammation. The placement is retroactive to April 24. Outfielder Dylan Carlson was called up from Triple-A to take O’Neill’s place on the 26-man roster.
O’Neill didn’t play in Baltimore’s game on Thursday and presumably wouldn’t have played yesterday either, had the Orioles’ game with the Tigers not been rained out. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun) that the IL placement was meant “to get [O’Neill] right” and completely over his neck soreness, though the outfielder isn’t expected to miss more than the minimum 10 days.
Signed to a three-year, $49.5MM guarantee in December, O’Neill was the biggest acquisition of the Orioles’ offseason, though the deal could end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact if O’Neill triggers an opt-out clause at season’s end. After hitting his customary Opening Day home run, O’Neill has yet to really get rolling this season, as he has hit only two homers in total while batting .215/.284/.385 in 74 plate appearances. The outfielder’s walk and hard-contact rates are down, and he has continued his high-strikeout ways with a 28.4% strikeout rate.
O’Neill’s .337 xwOBA is much higher than his .293 wOBA, so there is at least some evidence that he has just been somewhat unlucky in the season’s first month. His IL stint might well act as an unofficial reset point for O’Neill’s 2025 season and Orioles tenure, once his neck heals up.
Colton Cowser Out At Least Six To Eight Weeks With Broken Thumb
10:34am: Manager Brandon Hyde told the O’s beat this morning that Cowser will miss six to eight weeks at minimum (via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner).
9:00am: The Orioles announced Monday that outfielder Colton Cowser has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a fractured left thumb. A timetable for his return was not specified. Cowser suffered the injury last night while sliding into first base on a close play; he was ruled out (video link). Fellow outfielder Dylan Carlson has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk in Cowser’s place.
It’s a sour start to the season for Cowser, last year’s runner-up in American League Rookie of the Year voting. He’s posted just a .125/.222/.313 slash through his first 18 plate appearances and will now be looking at an absence of some note while his hand mends.
Cowser enjoyed a monster spring, tallying 52 plate appearances with a .364/.462/.568 batting line, two homers and three doubles. The former No. 5 overall pick out of Sam Houston hit .242/.321/.447 with 24 homers, 24 doubles, three triples, nine steals, a 9.3% walk rate, a 30.7% strikeout rate and plus defense across all three outfield spots last year.
In Cowser’s place, the O’s will turn to Carlson, whom they signed over the winter on a one-year, $975K deal. Like Cowser, Carlson is a former top pick (No. 33 overall by the Cardinals in 2016) and top prospect. Things never fully panned out for the switch-hitter in St. Louis, however. Carlson looked on the cusp of a breakout in 2021 when he slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 homers as a 22-year-old, but he followed that with a .225/.309/.341 output over the next three seasons. The Cards shipped him to the Rays in exchange for reliever Shawn Armstrong at last year’s trade deadline. Armstrong was designated for assignment by St. Louis in August. Carlson was non-tendered by Tampa Bay over the winter.
Still only 26 years old, Carlson can handle all three outfield spots. His status as a switch-hitter with versatility on the defensive side of things will give the O’s plenty of flexibility when writing out the lineup or making in-game substitutions. Carlson is a much, much better hitter from the right side of the plate (.285/.361/.431) than from the left side (.219/.300/.355), which could set the stage for a some form of platoon with Heston Kjerstad in left field. The O’s also have righty-swinging Ramon Laureano in the mix for outfield time, though either Carlson or Laureano could also see some DH time against lefties over Ryan O’Hearn.
Orioles Sign Dylan Carlson, Designate Jacob Amaya For Assignment
The Orioles announced that they have signed outfielder Dylan Carlson to a one-year deal. The ALIGND Sports Agency client will reportedly make $975K with a $25K bonus for getting to 200 plate appearances. Infielder Jacob Amaya has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Carlson, 26, has seen his stock slide in recent years. That includes a very rough showing in 2024. Between the Cardinals and Rays last year, he stepped to the plate 265 times but struck out in 28.3% of those appearances and hit just .209/.287/.277 for a wRC+ of 67. The Rays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.7MM salary, but they non-tendered him instead.
It’s been a steep drop from a few years ago. Carlson was selected by the Cardinals with the 33rd overall pick in 2016 and he performed well in his first professional games. Baseball America ranked him as one of the ten best prospects in the entire league in both 2020 and 2021.
In the latter of those two years, he seemed to be on his way to delivering on that prospect hype. He got into 149 games for the Cards in 2021, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .266/.343/.437 for a 111 wRC+. He also got some decent marks for his glovework, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 2.4 wins above replacement on the year. Since he was only 22 years old at the time, it would have been fair to consider that just the beginning.
Unfortunately, his production has trended down since then, perhaps due to a lack of health. A left hamstring strain sent him to the injured list, followed by a later stint for a left thumb sprain. He played 128 games with a .236/.316/.380 line and 98 wRC+. In 2023, left ankle issues were the culprit, sending him to the IL multiple times and eventually requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, getting into just 76 games. In 2024, a left AC joint sprain put him on the IL to start the year. As mentioned earlier, he went on to have a poor season and got sent to free agency.
For the O’s, they probably aren’t expecting much out of Carlson except to fill a fourth outfielder role. They have Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser likely to be their regular trio on the grass. Even if someone in that group gets hurt, they have Heston Kjerstad as an option to step up. He still has options remaining and could perhaps be ticketed for everyday at-bats in Triple-A until he’s needed in the majors. The designated hitter slot will probably be shared by first basemen Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn.
That will likely leave Carlson and Daz Cameron in bench/depth roles. Carlson has played all three outfield spots in his career, with mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved considers him to have been slightly above average on the whole, though Outs Above Average has him a bit below par.
Based on his past prospect pedigree, there’s theoretically some upside there since Carlson is still young, though he will need to stay healthy and find a path to some regular playing time. If that comes to pass, Carlson can be retained for 2026 via arbitration. He also has a full slate of options, so it’s possible the O’s send him to the minors to try and get him back on track that way. His service time is at four years and 104 days, putting him 68 days of the five-year mark. Once he gets to that line, he can’t be optioned without his consent.
Amaya, 26, was just claimed off waivers earlier this month. The O’s have a penchant for grabbing guys off the wire and then trying to pass them through at a later date, so it’s not especially surprising to see that happen here.
The young infielder is considered to be stronger as a fielder than as a hitter. He has plenty of experience with the middle infield positions, as well as some time at third base, generally impressing prospect evaluators. He has hit .182/.222/.195 in 81 major league plate appearances. That’s a tiny sample size but his minor league work has also been subpar. Over the past two years, he stepped to the plate 868 times on the farm and hit .241/.332/.379 for a wRC+ of 80.
He exhausted his final option in 2024. As his out-of-options status was nearing, he started to bounce around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Marlins in March and traded to the Astros. Houston put him on waivers in August, which led the White Sox to make a claim, though they subsequently lost him to the O’s this month.
Amaya heads back to DFA limbo and will know his fate within a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any possibility of a trade would need to be explored in the next five days. Based on his past few DFAs, he’s probably headed for the waiver wire again in the coming days. If he clears this time, the O’s will retain him as some infield depth but without him taking up a roster spot.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the financial terms.
American League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24
The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.
Onto the transactions…
- The Angels announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Patrick Sandoval, infielder Eric Wagaman, as well as outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio. You can read more about those moves here.
- The Astros tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
- The Athletics announced that they did not tender a contract to right-hander Dany Jiménez, who was projected for a $1MM salary. He posted a 4.91 in 25 appearances for the A’s in 2024. He struck out 21.4% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.2% clip.
- The Blue Jays are planning to non-tender righty Dillon Tate, per Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). Tate was just claimed off waivers at the start of September and had a projected salary of $1.9MM. He’s a former fourth overall pick with some good numbers in his career but he missed most of 2023 due to injury and then posted a 4.66 ERA in 2024. The Jays are also non-tendering righty Jordan Romano, which you can read more about here.
- The Guardians have non-tendered outfielder George Valera and right-hander Connor Gillispie, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). Both players were designated for assignment earlier this week.
- The Mariners are going to non-tender outfielder Sam Haggerty, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to a torn achilles. He was only projected for a salary of $900K but the M’s have decided to move on. They also non-tendered infielder Josh Rojas and righties Austin Voth and JT Chargois, moves that are covered with more depth here.
- The Orioles plan to non-tender right-hander Jacob Webb, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). Webb was projected for a salary of $1.7MM next year. The righty tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024 with a 3.02 ERA and 24.5% strikeout rate, but an 11.4% walk rate.
- The Rays announced they have non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson as well as left-handers Tyler Alexander, Colin Poche and Richard Lovelady. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news (X link) prior to the official announcement. Carlson once seemed like a building block in St. Louis but his offense has declined for three straight years now and he was projected for a $2.7MM salary. Alexander was projected for $2.8MM and had a 5.10 ERA this year. Poche had a solid 3.86 ERA but was projected for $3.4MM. Lovelady was designated for assignment a few days ago.
- The Rangers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
- The Red Sox announced that right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell were both non-tendered. Those two had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
- The Royals tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
- The Tigers announced that they have non-tendered infielder Eddys Leonard as well as right-handers Ricky Vanasco, Brendan White and Wilmer Flores. Three of those four were designated for assignment earlier this week. Flores, the lone exception, is the younger brother of the same-named Wilmer Flores of the Giants. The younger Flores was once a notable pitching prospect but was injured for most of 2024.
- The Twins tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
- The Yankees have non-tendered infielder Jon Berti, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was projected for a salary of $3.8MM. He was injured for much of the year and only got into 25 games. The Yankees also announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Tim Mayza, who was projected for a $4MM salary but had a 6.33 ERA in 2024.
- The White Sox will non-tender first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, which MLBTR covered earlier today. The Sox later announced Sheets and also that they non-tendered right-hander Enyel De Los Santos as well. De Los Santos was projected for a salary of $1.7MM but posted a 5.20 ERA this year.
Rays Acquire Dylan Carlson
Dylan Carlson is on his way to the Rays, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X links) report that Tampa has acquired the former Cardinals top prospect for right-hander Shawn Armstrong. The Angels, Guardians, and Nationals were all linked to Carlson’s market leading up to the deadline, but it was Tampa who sealed the deal for the 25-year-old outfielder. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that St. Louis included around $98K in the deal.
Trade speculation has swirled around Carlson for years, even when he was on the way up the ladder as one of the top minor leaguers in the St. Louis farm system. Both before and after Carlson made his MLB debut in 2020, there were whispers that the crowded nature of the Cards’ outfield picture might inspire the team to move Carlson to address another need, and it is perhaps now easy to second-guess the Cardinals’ decision to retain a player they once saw as a building block.
Carlson seemingly lived up to that early hype with a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, but injuries curtailed both his production and his playing time in 2022-23. A left hamstring strain and a thumb sprain hampered him in 2022, and ankle problems (and an eventual ankle surgery) limited Carlson to 76 games in 2023. Playing in 204 of 324 games over the 2022-23 seasons, Carlson hit .230/316/.364 over 743 plate appearances.
The struggles continued into this year, as Carlson has a .198/.275/.240 slash line in 138 PA while in a clear part-time capacity. Still just 25 years old, Carlson will now get a change of scenery with this trade to the Rays and a chance at a fresh start to his Major League career.
The Rays’ flurry of deadline moves has left plenty of opening around the roster, including the left field spot recently occupied by Randy Arozarena. Carlson’s center field defense has been declining along with his offense, but the metrics indicate that he is an average to solid defender in the corner outfield spots. Between that outfield versatility and his switch-hitting, Carlson somewhat fits the Rays’ preferred model of players who can shuffled around to different places on the diamond, though he’ll naturally need to show more at the plate in order to win regular playing time. Carlson is still under arbitration control through the 2026 season, so Tampa Bay has time to evaluate Carlson and decide whether or not he has something to offer as a big leaguer.
Armstrong has a 4.18 ERA over 327 1/3 career innings with Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Baltimore, and two separate stints with Tampa Bay during his 10 Major League seasons. The righty is a free agent after the season and is therefore a rental pickup for the Cardinals, who will use Armstrong as some extra depth in their bullpen.
A big .370 BABIP has impacted Armstrong’s performance in 2024, as his 5.40 ERA is considerably higher than his 3.86 SIERA. It hasn’t all been plain bad luck, however, as Armstrong’s walk and hard-contact rates are all below average, and his 23.4% strikeout rate is decent but inspiring. Left-handed batters have a .982 OPS against Armstrong this season, while he has continued to pitch well against same-sided hitters, limiting righty-swingers to a .690 OPS.
Cards, Nats Have Discussed Dylan Carlson, Dylan Floro
1:11pm: The Cards and Nats have indeed had ongoing talks on a swap of the two Dylans and could complete a deal this afternoon, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear if other players are involved.
11:17am: The Cardinals crossed a pair of big items off their wishlist yesterday when they acquired right-hander Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox, but they’re still hoping to add to the bullpen, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Cardinals are openly shopping outfielder Dylan Carlson in a related pursuit, and MLB.com’s John Denton tweets that Nationals right-hander Dylan Floro is a name to watch if St. Louis indeed moves on from Carlson. The Nats are known to have some interest in Carlson.
A few years ago, the notion of trading Carlson for a middle-relief rental would’ve been unfathomable (though it’s of course possible that a theoretical Dylan-for-Dylan swap would also include additional minor league players to balance out the scales). Carlson isn’t all that far removed from ranking among the game’s top 10 to 20 overall prospects. The former first-rounder’s bat has wilted since a solid 2021 showing.
Dating back to 2022, Carlson has batted just .225/.310/.345 in 881 big league plate appearances. That’s come in scattered playing time — in part due to injuries — so the Nats could well view him as a buy-low option with two-plus seasons of club control remaining who could benefit from a change of scenery. (The last controllable outfielder they pried from the Cardinals in exchange for a rental pitcher — Lane Thomas for Jon Lester — worked out nicely, after all.)
Floro, 33, is on a one-year, $2.25MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end. He’s pitched to a pristine 2.06 earned run average this season, albeit with a rather pedestrian 19.6% strikeout rate and tepid 90.3 mph average fastball. That said, Floro has walked only 6.4% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a strong 47.6% clip. He’s not going to continue to see this level of fortune on his fly-balls — only 2.2% of them have become homers, compared to the 7% mark he carried into the season — but it’s been a nice rebound effort for a veteran reliever who struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00 last year between the Marlins and Twins.
Since cementing himself as a viable big league reliever in 2018, Floro touts a 3.11 ERA in 361 1/3 innings. He’s had a below-average strikeout rate nearly every season along the way, but never egregiously so, and has offset that with habitually strong command. Floro also regularly avoids loud contact, evidenced by a career 87.4 mph average exit velocity, 3.7% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate.
Floro is surely just one of many bullpen arms the Cardinals have looked into in the final hours leading to today’s 5pm CT trade deadline. Concurrently, they’re looking for trade partners for Carlson and the already-designated-for-assignment Giovanny Gallegos. The Cards may not have another blockbuster along the lines of yesterday’s three-team swap in them, but they could still have multiple trades in store today.
Angels, Nationals Interested In Dylan Carlson
The Cardinals are exploring trades of outfielder Dylan Carlson and right-hander Giovanny Gallegos, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club is set to add Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a trade that will subtract Tommy Edman, leaving them needing to open some active roster spots. Gallegos was already removed from the roster as he was designated for assignment yesterday. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers are interested in Gallegos while John Denton of MLB.com relays on X that the Guardians, Angels and Nationals are interested in Carlson, though the Guardians just acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals, which presumably lowers their interest in Carlson.
Carlson, 25, has been getting squeezed out of playing time this year as guys like Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson have been out on the grass more than he has. The crunch will be even tighter whenever Pham officially reports to the club. As mentioned, the club will have to open a couple of roster spots, so perhaps a trade of Carlson will come together between now and tomorrow’s deadline.
“Right now, he’s still one of our outfielders, but clearly we’re gonna have a roster crunch at some point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said of Carlson today, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X. “So we’ll use the next 24 hours to see what happens, but he’s still a part of our organization right now and we’ll see where that goes.”
Sending out Carlson now would definitely be a sell-low move for the Cards. Not too long ago, he was the club’s first-round pick and one of their top prospects. He also seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular in the major leagues when he first arrived. In 2021, he got into 149 games and hit 18 home runs while drawing walks at a 9.2% rate. He also received close to league average grades for his outfield glovework and was considered to be worth 2.4 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.
That was only his age-22 season, so it seemed fair to expect better results going forward, but the opposite has happened. In 2022, Carlson went on the injured list a couple of times, first due to a left hamstring strain and then a left thumb sprain. He got into 128 games with his production slipping a bit, finishing that year with a line of .236/.316/.380 and a 99 wRC+.
Last year, left ankle issues sent him to the IL multiple times, limiting him to just 76 games and ultimately requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 on the year for a wRC+ of 84, another dip in his production but perhaps one connected to his health.
Coming into 2024, he seemed to have a chance to engineer a rebound. Both Edman and Nootbaar were slated to start the season on the IL, which should have opened up plenty of playing time for Carlson. Unfortunately, just at the end of Spring Training, Carlson and Jordan Walker collided while trying to make a catch in the outfield. Carlson was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder and also had to start the season on the IL.
He was back by early May but, as mentioned, hasn’t been able to earn much playing time this year. When in the lineup, he hasn’t done much to earn a longer leash, having hit .198/.275/.240 here in 2024.
Perhaps some clubs will be eyeing Carlson as a change-of-scenery candidate. He’s been trending downwards for three straight years now but mostly due to injuries. It’s feasible that with some health luck and regular playing time somewhere, he could return to the form he showed a few years back. He is making a modest $2.35MM salary this year and has two more years of control left. He’ll be due raises in arbitration but won’t be able to push his salary up much based on his recent results and injury absences. Carlson also has options and doesn’t necessarily need to be traded, though the Cardinals may prefer to just cash him in for something now as he may no longer be in their future plans.
The Nationals have moved on from a few veteran outfielders already this year. Eddie Rosario and Víctor Robles were released and Jesse Winker was traded to the Mets. As mentioned, Thomas was just flipped to the Guardians. Perhaps they could slot Carlson in there next to James Wood and Jacob Young.
The Angels would be in a somewhat similar position. They are giving outfield playing time to guys who could be traded like Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar. If they pull the trigger on a deal for either of those guys, they could grab Carlson in a buy-low move and give him some run for the rest of this year or perhaps next year.
Gallegos would also be a sell-low move, but the Cards don’t have much choice there. He’s an impending free agent and they already sent him off the roster and into DFA limbo. He was one of the better relievers in the league not so long ago, tossing 228 1/3 innings over the 2019-22 seasons with a 2.84 ERA. He struck out 32% of batters faced in that time and only gave out walks at a 6.6% rate, earning 33 saves and 56 holds in the process.
But his ERA jumped to 4.42 last year as his strikeout rate fell to 25.8%. Here in 2024, his punchouts have fallen to a rate of 22.3% as his ERA has climbed to 6.53. That got him nudged off the roster but the Dodgers have a solid reputation of getting good results from pitchers and perhaps see a way to get Gallegos back on track. He is making $5.5MM this year, with roughly $1.8MM still to be paid out. The Dodgers are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top tier, meaning they face a 110% tax rate on anything they add to their payroll at this point.
Cardinals Activate Dylan Carlson From Injured List
TODAY: The Cardinals have officially announced Carlson’s activation. Pages was optioned to make room for the center fielder on the club’s active roster.
May 4: The Cardinals are set to activate outfielder Dylan Carlson from the 10-day injured list tomorrow, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Catcher Pedro Pages is expected to be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Woo also relays that left-hander Matthew Liberatore is expected to move from the bullpen to the rotation to take the ball in tomorrow afternoon’s game against the White Sox.
Carlson, 25, appeared poised to enter the season as the everyday center fielder in St. Louis until a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder sidelined him just before Opening Day. In his absence, the Cardinals have scuffled to a 15-18 start that leaves them just half a game out of last place in the NL Central. Much of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of offense from the club’s lineup, which has posted a collective 86 wRC+ that ranks sixth from the bottom in the majors. That figure has been dragged down by brutal offensive production from the club’s outfield mix, which to this point in the season has consisted of a combination of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani. With Donovan’s 92 wRC+ leading the pack, Cardinals outfielders have combined for a paltry slash line of .188/.268/.294 with an NL-worst wRC+ of 66.
Given those significant struggles, Carlson’s return to action is welcome news for fans in St. Louis even as he himself is far from a sure thing offensively. The club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft, Carlson was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport when he reached the majors during the shortened 2020 season and earned a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting during his first full campaign the following year. While he hit a solid .266/.343/.437 in 149 games that year, he’s struggled to repeat that production over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Carlson has slashed just .230/.316/.364 with a below-average 94 wRC+ in 204 combined games. Still, those numbers are at least decent for a center fielder and would represent a major upgrade over the club’s current production at the position, where is hitting .182/.280/.227 with a wRC+ of 56.
As for Liberatore, the 24-year-old has performed admirably in 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, but a lackluster 16.4% strikeout rate and a much higher 4.18 FIP suggest that the lefty’s solid results have benefited from good fortune. While those questionable peripherals aren’t necessarily a reason for the Cardinals to avoid using him in the rotation, starting Liberatore is nonetheless a confusing choice given the lefty hasn’t thrown more than 38 pitches in a game since March and has struggled badly in the role throughout his major league career with a 5.72 ERA through 18 starts.
It’s not yet clear if Liberatore’s move to the rotation is a sign that he’s the club’s long-term replacement for veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is reportedly expected to miss at least “a couple of weeks” with a lower back strain, or if Liberatore’s start tomorrow will merely be a spot start before he passes the baton to one of the club’s other options, such as southpaw Zack Thompson or prospect Sem Robberse. Thompson made two starts for the club earlier this season but was optioned to Triple-A after allowing ten runs in 3 1/3 innings of work following a move to the bullpen, while Robberse has dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA in six starts but has yet to make his major league debut.