MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Painter, Royals, Yankees, Mets
Today's mailbag gets into the Nationals' offseason approach, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do this year, the Royals' outfield, how small market teams can compete, the Yankees' third base situation, the Mets' rotation, and more.
Steve asks:
The Nationals have now spent over $50 million in this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you like their strategy of building depth with upside players with lower $ risk per player to keep the books clean for the coming years?
OTOH, they could have gone all in and met Bregman's rumored price of $210 million over 7 years, and had enough money for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and adding Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for their bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.
Which route do you like better?
Just to review, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free agency at a 2025 AAV cost of $38.75MM. They also traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who is earning $10.3MM this year.
Despite adding $49MM in total '25 AAV, the team's CBT payroll is only $138MM. The question is whether 2025 is/was the time for this team to pounce. Owner Mark Lerner doesn't think so, based on comments made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here's what Lerner said to Svrluga:
“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.” He paused. “You could get nauseous thinking about it,” he said, laughing.
Despite the additions, FanGraphs projects the Nationals for only 73 wins this year. And even though - as I'll show later in the mailbag - teams sometimes outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that still might not be enough for a wild card.
The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base. Bregman alone doesn't make this team a likely contender, and he turns 31 in March. I don't think he fit as the team's Jayson Werth move. I doubt Nolan Arenado would've accepted a trade to D.C., and he doesn't sense for this team anyway.
The Nats still owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a few catching prospects in the pipeline, so I can see why they didn't do anything there. Likewise, adding a bigger bat than Bell might mean 74 or 75 wins instead of 73.
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Who Else Could The A’s Look To Extend?
Last week, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that the A's had opened extension negotiations with outfielder Lawrence Butler. General manager David Forst declined comment on Butler specifically but implied that he's not the only player with whom they've had discussions.
"We’ve had conversations with a couple other players other than (already-extended DH Brent Rooker), and those talks are ongoing," Forst told Drellich. "It is an important thing for us to lock guys up (heading) into Las Vegas and make sure that we keep the core of what we think is a really good young team together, ongoing."
MLBTR covered Butler's extension candidacy at the time of Drellich's report. With Forst's comments in mind, it's worth taking a speculative look at who else the A's may try to sign over the next few weeks.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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The Best Remaining Free Agent Position Players
The market for free agents of any note is drying up by the day. In particular, we've seen a run on veteran pitchers. Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Cal Quantrill, Jakob Junis, John Means, Tyler Alexander, Kenley Jansen, Scott Barlow, John Brebbia, Kendall Graveman, Luke Jackson, Scott Alexander and Lucas Sims have all come off the board in the past ten days. A few bats have signed in that time as well, but typically on smaller-scale deals. Justin Turner's $6MM Cubs deal is the most notable. Each of Michael A. Taylor, Ty France, Paul DeJong and Luis Urias secured guarantees between $1-2MM.
At this stage, there simply aren't many potential big league deals left for free agent position players. That doesn't mean there aren't any, however. There are still four free agent hitters who posted better-than-average offense last year, plus another couple notable names who are looking to bounce back from their first truly poor offensive performance in the past six seasons.
Let's run through some of the remaining free agent position players on the market, with a brief look at their 2024 season, what they bring to the table, and some of the best landing spots left for each.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers.
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MLB Mailbag: Devers, Vlad, Rizzo, Mets, Phillies, Sean Murphy
This week's mailbag covers the Rafael Devers situation, potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scenarios, fits for Anthony Rizzo, whether the Braves should've traded Sean Murphy, and questions involving the Mets and Phillies.
Clarke asks:
Devers says 3B is his, Story is at SS, Campbell at 2B and Casas says he's at first and Bregman is at 2B and to heck with the kids. Meanwhile, Yoshida insists he's ready to DH and play outfield. Sounds like an accident waiting to happen. What say you?
Elden asks:
What would be the outcome of a player refusing to accept an assignment decision made by the club management? ex: Devers refusing to give up 3B or Stroman refusing to work out of the bullpen. Would it be grounds to void a contract? suspension? other remedies?
It's a mess, and it's why I didn't think Bregman was a good fit for the Red Sox. Here's a potential 2025 plan:
- Alex Bregman at 3B
- Trevor Story at SS
- Kristian Campbell at 2B
- Triston Casas at 1B
- Rafael Devers at DH
- Masataka Yoshida traded or in a part-time role
I think there's a fair chance Bregman misses 20 or so games due to injury. Third base would well-covered in that case with Devers, perhaps Campbell in a pinch, and maybe Marcelo Mayer when he's ready.
Story is 32 and hasn't topped 94 games in a season since 2021, so the Red Sox may need to cover 40+ games at shortstop. He could be backed up by Mayer, Campbell, or even Bregman.
If Campbell falters as a rookie, various options open up for Alex Cora given that the team still has a bunch of other second base possibilities beyond Bregman.
There's a pretty good chance Casas misses 20+ games due to injury. It makes tons of sense for Devers to work at first base in spring training, as he could get 40+ games as an infield corner backup even if Bregman and Casas are the starters.
A lot of different injury scenarios push Yoshida into more playing time, though Cora will probably want to sit him for Rob Refsnyder against most lefties. Wilyer Abreu needs a platoon partner as well.
What about a scenario where everyone is healthy and the younger players are hitting to their projections?
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What Might It Cost To Extend Brenton Doyle?
Brenton Doyle has been one of the brightest spots amidst a terrible two-year run for the Rockies. The former fourth-round pick has emerged as a quality everyday center fielder. Doyle has won Gold Gloves in each of his first two MLB seasons. The defense was the only value he provided as a rookie, as he was arguably the league's worst regular hitter in 2023. He took a huge step forward in his sophomore season to break out as a quality all-around contributor.
Doyle hit .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs across 603 plate appearances last season. That's essentially league average offense according to park-adjusted metrics that account for Coors Field. That's a major leap from his .203/.250/.343 showing as a rookie. Doyle would be an All-Star caliber player if he can simply maintain league average production at the plate. He leads all outfielders in Statcast's Outs Above Average since making his debut. Only Daulton Varsho has more Defensive Runs Saved. Doyle is probably a top three defensive outfielder in the game. He went 30-35 on stolen base attempts last year.
Last season's offensive strides came with a real change in process. The right-handed hitter had a markedly improved plate discipline profile. He cut his strikeout rate by almost 10 percentage points. After fanning 35% of the time during his rookie season, he struck out at a 25.4% clip last year. He chased fewer pitches off the plate and increased his walk rate by a couple points. Among players with 400+ plate appearances in each season, only Red Sox's catcher Connor Wong had a bigger improvement in his strikeout rate. No one took a more significant step forward than Doyle in making contact on a per-pitch basis.
That presents an interesting evaluation. The bullish case is that it demonstrates Doyle's capacity to make offensive adjustments, perhaps hinting at an even higher ceiling as he enters his third season against big league pitching. On the other hand, it's fair to wonder if last year's improvement is entirely sustainable. Players don't always progress linearly. Doyle's numbers tailed off in the second half, especially in September. He still made far more contact late last season than he had as a rookie, but his .234/.274/.407 line coming out of the All-Star Break is far below the .276/.343/.471 mark he carried into it.
Even amidst their rebuild, the Rockies have prioritized locking up players they consider key pieces. They've had mixed results on that front. The Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland extensions haven't panned out. Ryan McMahon's production has been up-and-down. Last spring's $63MM investment in Ezequiel Tovar looks like the best of the bunch, as the 23-year-old shortstop had a strong second full season in the majors.
Is Doyle next in line? Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote a couple weeks ago that Colorado has had some internal conversations about the possibility. What kind of prices could the team and Doyle's camp at the Ballengee Group discuss?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: Today, 3pm CT
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively or Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
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The Phillies’ Next Rotation Extension Candidate
On the transaction front, Spring Training's arrival opens extension season. Teams and players are free to talk extensions at any time of year, but it's most common in the lead-up to the start of the regular season. While most of those deals are for players early in their careers, there have been a few high-profile impending free agents (e.g. Rafael Devers, Ian Happ) who have recently signed extensions in the run-up to their platform years.
The Phillies pulled off the biggest extension of that ilk last spring. They kept Zack Wheeler off the market on a three-year term at a record-setting $42MM average annual value. That came a few months after the Phils brought back Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract early in free agency. For the third straight season, they're faced with the possibility of losing one of their most valuable pitchers to the open market.
Ranger Suárez is headed into his final year of club control. He and the Phillies already agreed to an $8.8MM salary to avoid arbitration. The question now is whether they want to initiate talks on a longer-term contract to try to keep him off next winter's open market. What kind of offer might that take, and how well-positioned are the Phils for another extended pitching investment?
Suárez, who turned 29 last August, has been a mid-rotation presence for three years running. The southpaw had an earned run average between 3.46 and 4.18 in each season from 2022-24. He turned in a cumulative 3.74 mark across 431 innings over that stretch. Suárez has fanned a league average 21.5% of opposing hitters against an 8% walk rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a robust 52.2% clip while allowing a lower than average hard contact rate in each season.
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