Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
In order to keep with our growing base of subscribers, we'll be offering a second weekly Front Office subscriber chat taking place on Monday afternoons. I'll be hosting these Monday chats, which will come in addition to my weekly free chat on Tuesday afternoons, Mark Polishuk's free weekend chats and Anthony Franco's subscriber-only chat on Friday afternoon. None of those other live Q&A formats are going anywhere.
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What Could Pete Alonso’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?
As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.
Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.
For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.
Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.
Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.
That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.
ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.
Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Reds' budget, Dylan Cease trade proposals, the Brewers' lineup, Nathaniel Lowe's extension candidacy, Nick Pivetta landing spots, the frequency of relievers getting rotation chances, the Braves' ceiling, and much more.
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MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays
Today's mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees' infield, the Giants' ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don't sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren't getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.
Kyle asks:
What's your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I'm a bit irked they wouldn't beat the Reds offer (M's have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M's being too risk averse?
Leonard asks:
I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?
Jeff asks:
After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?
Dante asks:
Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.
Elliott asks:
After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds' next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?
Colin asks:
I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?
Jason asks:
What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?
Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman. He saved his season with a hot streak that I'd say ran from July 11th through September 4th. In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances. He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.
Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances. On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time. That's for good reason - he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.
In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux's second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage. Lux's changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder. You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.
Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career. The eight-week streak isn't enough to convince me he's changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.
All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder. There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star. Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too. I don't think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn't, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.
Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would "give him a look" at third base and shortstop. Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it's hard to see how third base would be any better. He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field. Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there. The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn't find a position. So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.
As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast's OAA this year. So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties. That's a useful player.
But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?
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What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?
The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.
If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.
As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.
Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.
If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on whether the Cubs could extend Kyle Tucker, the Angels/Pete Alonso rumors, Robbie Ray's trade candidacy, whether the Marlins would move Sandy Alcantara, the Yankees' third base options, next moves for the Brewers, and much more.
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Which Teams Can Still Use Nolan Arenado?
The Cardinals expected to have traded Nolan Arenado by now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested at the Winter Meetings that a deal could come together within a week or two. That probably would've been the case had the eight-time All-Star not used his no-trade clause to kill talks about a move to the Astros.
That leaves St. Louis in an awkward position. They've publicly shopped Arenado. He's seemingly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause in certain circumstances. For whatever reason, he wasn't interested in going to Houston last month. Subsequent reporting indicated he could consider the Astros in the future, but the team moved on to Christian Walker almost immediately and no longer needs a corner infielder. The Cardinals need to look elsewhere.
Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic reported this week that there's been minimal traction on an Arenado trade since the Houston talks collapsed. The Yankees, long a speculative fit, are apparently not as interested as it first seemed. The YES Network's Jack Curry pushed back against that notion last week. Jon Heyman also suggested in a Bleacher Report live stream yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to stick with DJ LeMahieu than to go after Arenado.
Where does that leave Mozeliak and company?
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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Mariners, Torkelson, Alonso, Bregman
Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025! In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.
John asks:
Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?
Bill asks:
With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?
Phillip asks:
What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?
Bruce asks:
Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?
In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll. President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.
The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents. It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez. I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.
The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold." That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024. Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not. Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present. It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.
Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason. The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll. So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
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Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade
It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.
Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.
That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.
Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.
A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.
Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.
Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.
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