Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Where Can The Orioles Turn For A Top-End Starter?
The Orioles made one necessary rotation upgrade this week, signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a $13MM deal on Monday. That should be the first of multiple starting pitching acquisitions. Sugano projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this stage of his career. The O's need for an ace persists.
Baltimore addressed that last winter via trade. The O's acquired one year of control over Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall in what was GM Mike Elias' boldest trade to date. Burnes pitched as well as the O's could've expected, turning in a 2.92 ERA across 32 regular season starts to earn a fifth-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He fired eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason appearance. Unfortunately, the offense cratered down the stretch and scored a grand total of one run in their two playoff games. The Royals swept them by respective 1-0 and 2-1 margins.
Burnes is a free agent, leaving Elias and his staff on the hunt for another top-end arm. Where could they turn?
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Burnes, Soto, Brewers, Dodgers, A’s, Astros
Today's mailbag gets into where Corbin Burnes might go, why we write about players' salaries, whether Juan Soto will opt out, how the Brewers might sort out their outfield, chances of the Dodgers signing various free agents, and what's next for the A's.
Please note that this mailbag was initially published shortly before news of the Cody Bellinger trade broke. I'm sure we'll get into that trade in the next mailbag, but since some of the Bellinger material in the mailbag was usurped by the trade, I've added several bonus Astros questions and answers to the end.
Joel asks:
Why is there not even a shred of a suggestion anywhere that the Mets have interest in Corbin Burnes? If they were willing to pay dinosaurs like Scherzer and Verlander, why not pay Burnes? Otherwise, they'll lose a lot of games 7-5.
Tony asks:
Corbin Burnes will sign with ?
Bud asks:
As a Giant fan it’s a little concerning hearing the rumors of Corbin Burns nearing a deal with the team and then a week or more of quiet. I was hoping for more moves…
Neil asks:
Will Giants sign Burnes or will it be another pitcher?
David Stearns was the GM of the Brewers when the team drafted Burnes in the fourth round out of Saint Mary's College of California in 2016. With the Mets needing three starters this winter, it was natural to expect Stearns to be interested. While it's true Stearns topped out at $15.5MM for a free agent starter with the Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin in 2016), it's also true that the Mets have way more money than the Brewers.
Even a comparison to Stearns' 2023-24 offseason would not be fair, because that was, as my colleague Darragh McDonald wrote, "a sort of bridge year." Hence the relatively affordable additions of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser.
To date, the Mets have made the ownership-driven decision to sign Juan Soto to a record-shattering contract, while Stearns has added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on two-year deals (if Holmes uses his opt-out) to help fill out the rotation. Kodai Senga barely pitched this year, and David Peterson's 21 starts matched a career high. Paul Blackburn is a back of the rotation type who has battled injuries, including October back surgery. The rotation lacks reliability, which would likely be solved by Burnes.
Stearns seems more interested in the trade market of late, showing interest in Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo this month. Speculatively, they could go after Dylan Cease as well. On December 7th, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that the Mets had interest in Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Nick Pivetta. Around that time, Tim Healey of Newsday wrote that the Mets were not in on Max Fried and are not expected to land Burnes. It would seem that Stearns simply does not like the return on investment of huge pitching contracts (at least for the players available this winter) and does not want to spend $250MM+ on Burnes.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony discussed the Winter Meetings' biggest activity and the recent trades of Kyle Tucker, Andrés Giménez and Devin Williams. He touched on what's next for the Guardians, Pirates, Giants and Angels, among others, and weighed in on whether Willy Adames and Matt Chapman form the best left side infield duo in MLB.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Vlad Jr., Yankees, Seiya Suzuki, Sasaki, Giants
We (Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes) are on the scene at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for Day 2 of the Winter Meetings. At the time of this writing, Tuesday has been quiet in terms of completed deals, but plenty of action is yet to come. We carved out some time from meandering the lobby to field subscriber questions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s potential contract, what the Yankees might do after losing out on Juan Soto, the Cubs and the Seiya Suzuki trade situation, the idea of signing Roki Sasaki to an extension, what's next for the Giants, and much more.
Jeff asks:
Jays fan question - if 26 year old Soto is worth 765M, isn't 26 year old free agent Vlad Jr now worth ~500M? How bad has Ross Atkins bungled his window to sign Vlad at a more reasonable price, over several years of dithering? All the talk had been a Devers comp in the mid-300s, but that ship has surely sailed, right?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s likely rising price tag was a big topic of conversation around the lobby of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas Monday night.
It's worth noting that Guerrero will turn 27 shortly in advance of his first free agent season, as opposed to Juan Soto spending the entire first year of his new deal at the age of 26. We have rarely seen a prominent free agent hit the market at 27, perhaps with the exception of Carlos Correa's weird three-year post-lockout contract. Otherwise you're looking at international free agents like Jose Abreu or Seiya Suzuki, or Cody Bellinger who took a one-year deal at that point.
Steve and I spoke to our esteemed former colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith last night about a potential Vlad Jr. price tag, and Ben mentioned Rafael Devers as a comp just as Jeff did in his question. Indeed, Devers' contract only covers free agent years and started with his age-27 season. That was a ten-year, $313.5MM extension. Due to deferred money, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that the CBT hit on Devers' deal is "just more than $29 million." In other words, the present value of Devers' deal was below $300MM. It was also not signed on the open market.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: Winter Meetings Continue!
Day 2 of the Winter Meetings has brought a massive deal for Max Fried, a Rangers/Nathan Eovaldi reunion and an out-of-the-blue Andres Gimenez trade! MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I are down in Dallas for this year's event. We hosted a chat with subscribers for the next hour or so. If you haven’t subscribed to Trade Rumors Front Office, you can learn more here and do so today.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
The Winter Meetings are in full swing! MLBTR's Tim Dierkes and I are down in Dallas for this years event. We're hosting an impromptu chat with subscribers for the next hour or so. If you haven't subscribed to Trade Rumors Front Office, you can learn more here and do so today.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Best Fits For Willy Adames
MLBTR has taken a look at the markets for Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman in a trio of posts for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that with a look at the likely market for one of the top free agent infielders: Willy Adames.
The longtime Brewers shortstop is among the most potent bats in the game at his position. Adames slugged a career-high 32 home runs in 2024, topping his previous highwater mark of 31 round-trippers, set in 2022. Over the past four seasons, he's tied with Corey Seager for the MLB lead in shortstop home runs (112). He's more strikeout-prone than some teams might like, but he's cut his strikeout rate in four consecutive seasons now, fanning in one-quarter of his plate appearances this past year. That's still a fair bit, but it's no longer egregiously north of league average, which sat at 22.6% in 2024.
The Brewers bought low on Adames early in the 2021 season when he was struggling with the Rays, sending a pair of generally unproven relievers to Tampa Bay: J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. It worked out for both parties in the end. Adames became an All-Star shortstop, and both pitchers became key parts of Tampa Bay's staff -- Rasmussen in particular. He's rattled off four straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, much of it out of the rotation.
Adames hit .244/.323/.457 in parts of four seasons in Milwaukee. That overall line is dragged down by a pedestrian 2023 season, but Adames has been at least 9% better than average at the plate in four of the past five years, by measure of wRC+ (and at least 19% better in three of the past five). He's typically graded out as a plus defender, though his defensive metrics took an unexpected dip last year -- due largely to an uncharacteristically error-prone stretch in July where he made eight miscues in just three weeks.
Teams will likely still view Adames as a player with strong defensive tools, and he's willing to move to another position -- third base or second base -- if the right opportunity presents itself. Adames made the no-brainer decision to reject a qualifying offer from Milwaukee. He's surely kept a watchful eye as fellow shortstops Trevor Story ($140MM), Javier Baez ($140MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM) all cashed in on major free-agent deals heading into their own age-29 seasons. Adames, whose gregarious personality and reputation as a clubhouse leader only further enhance his appeal to clubs, arguably has as much or even more earning power than any of that bunch.
Let's take a look at which teams could be involved.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat for Front Office subscribers this afternoon.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Padres, Vlad Jr., Casas, Nats, Cubs, Giants
Today's epic pre-Winter Meetings mailbag gets into the Dodgers' deferrals, the golden AB idea, traded Padres prospects, the Blue Jays' failure to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Triston Casas and Boston's paths forward, the Cubs' plans, the Giants and draft pick forfeiture, and much more.
Elden asks:
I recently read that the Dodgers now have over $1 billion in deferred salaries on the books even if the sign nobody else. I admit that they have some pretty deep pockets and can weather almost any financial storm but how is this not a manipulation of the CBT rules? Granted that prices go up all them time but their deferred money alone is 4X the first tax threshold How is this good for baseball?
Not to pick on Elden, but fans don't have a seat at the collective bargaining table between owners and players, so "good for baseball" is largely irrelevant. At that table, there is "good for owners," and "good for players."
The players like having the option of deferring money. In February, union leader Tony Clark told Jack Harris of the L.A. Times, "We want the players and their individual representation to have as many tools in the tool bag to work with teams to find common ground."
Plenty of teams like having this option as well. Yes, the Dodgers have deferred a ton of money, more than any club in recent memory. But all kinds of contracts have included significant deferrals, for example Boston's Rafael Devers extension or the Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman correctly said, "I think the Shohei one was just very extreme. But if you set the Shohei contract aside, the rest are all within the norm and standard operating procedure that a lot of teams have done. But I think the Shohei one is just jarring to people because it's so different and I think that the others just unfairly get lumped into that, but I think it's kind of a lazy narrative."
If there's one thing casual fans love, it's a good lazy narrative. But why are the Dodgers doing so much of this? Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about it in March, suggesting benefits such as "reducing their short-term cash obligations, enabling them to discount luxury-tax numbers and creating flexibility in negotiations with players."
I am not a finance expert, but I'd say the main benefit is reducing short-term cash obligations. After two years, teams have to put the average annual value in an escrow account, but they can invest all of that and grow it until the player needs to be paid. And of course, if you're only actually paying Shohei Ohtani $2MM right now, you can spend more on players than if you were paying him $46MM.
It's worth considering, too, that the bill eventually comes due. If the Dodgers owe retired players, say, $150MM in 2035, that seems like it could reduce their flexibility even if the money was invested along the way. But what about the Dodgers' competitive balance tax manipulation?
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker