Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
It's a quick turnaround for the Yankees after last night's gutting defeat. The front office will jump right into offseason work. The most immediate focus is on their ace's complicated opt-out decision. After that, they'll make a push to retain a likely Hall of Famer who'll set a new contract record in the next few months.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Aaron Judge, CF: $280MM through 2031
- Gerrit Cole, RHP: $144MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out this winter; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29)
- Carlos Rodón, LHP: $108MM through 2028
- Giancarlo Stanton, DH: $96MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)*
- DJ LeMahieu, 3B: $30MM through 2026
- Marcus Stroman, RHP: $18MM through 2025 (deal contains $18MM vesting/player option for '26 if Stroman pitches 140+ innings next season)
* Marlins are covering $30MM of Stanton's contract between 2026-28, so Yankees are on the hook for $66MM
Option Decisions
- RHP Gerrit Cole can opt out of final four years and $144MM; Yankees could void the opt-out by exercising $36MM club option for '29
- Team holds $17MM option on 1B Anthony Rizzo ($6MM buyout)
- Team holds $5MM option on RHP Lou Trivino
- Team holds $2.5MM option on RHP Luke Weaver
Additional Obligations
- Owe $10.5MM to released OF Aaron Hicks
2025 financial commitments (if Cole doesn't hit free agency): $183.5MM
Total future commitments (if Cole doesn't opt out): $662.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
- Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
- Nestor Cortes (5.094): $7.7MM
- Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
- Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
- JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
- Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
- Scott Effross (2.156): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Berti, Mayza, Grisham, Brubaker
Free Agents
- Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Alex Verdugo, Tim Hill, Jonathan Loáisiga, Phil Bickford, Tanner Tully
There's no bigger story of the offseason than Juan Soto. That's true not only for the Yankees but MLB as a whole. Soto's next contract is almost certainly going to surpass $500MM. There's a reasonable chance the guarantee begins with a 6. He should break the record both for average annual value and overall guarantee (assuming one takes the net present value of the Shohei Ohtani deal rather than the $700MM figure, which does not account for the contract's $680MM of deferrals).
The Yankees are obviously going to try to keep Soto in the Bronx. His first season couldn't have gone much better. Soto had arguably the best full year of his career. He just turned 26 and is theoretically only entering his prime, at least offensively. The defense probably won't age well over the course of a deal that stretches beyond a decade, but it doesn't really matter. Soto's floor at the plate is better than any free agent's in recent memory.
Every high-payroll team will be tied to Soto. There's a chance it comes down to a bidding war between the New York franchises. The Mets are clearly going to be all-in. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns stoked the flames last week, saying the franchise's ample payroll space "means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible." The biggest offseason question may be whether Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is willing to be outbid by Mets owner Steve Cohen on a player who was instrumental in pushing the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years.
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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
Despite a quiet offseason, the Guardians returned to contention in 2024. They won 92 games and the AL Central crown before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. As November approaches, two related questions loom large for this team: Will the surprising success of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City convince the Guardians to do more this winter to defend their division title? Or will the potential loss of local media revenue lead to another slow offseason?
Guaranteed Contracts
- José Ramírez, 3B: $88MM through 2028
- Andrés Giménez, 2B: $96.86MM through 2029 ($23MM club option for 2030 with $2.5MM buyout)
- Myles Straw, CF: $13.8MM through 2026 ($8MM club option for 2027 with $1.75MM buyout and $8.5MM club option for ‘28 with a $500K buyout)
- Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $11.3MM through 2026 ($10MM club options for 2027 and ‘28 with $2MM buyout for ‘27 and $1MM buyout for ‘28)
- Trevor Stephan, RHP: $5.8MM through 2026 ($7.25MM club option for 2027 with $1.25MM buyout and $7.5 club option for ‘28 with no buyout)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Jean Segura, INF: $2MM buyout owed on $10MM club option for 2025
Total 2025 commitments: $45.17MM
Total future commitments: $225.26MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
- Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
- James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
- Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
- Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
- Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
- Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
- Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, McKenzie, Hentges
Free Agents
The top teams are often the most well-rounded, but the 2024 Guardians were defined by their strengths and weaknesses. Their bullpen was the best in baseball, but their starters were unreliable for most of the year. Meanwhile, their offense was excellent against left-handed pitching but struggled to score against righties. They were also one of the better defensive teams in the league by almost every metric, but their baserunning numbers were surprisingly mediocre. First and foremost, the Guardians need to focus on their scoring, and not run prevention, this winter. That said, they could badly use a couple more reliable options for the rotation.
All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan led the offense in 2024, and they’ll be back at the top of the order again next year. Even the notoriously stingy and trade-happy Guardians wouldn’t possibly part with their star third baseman, who continues to look like an absolute bargain on the seven-year, $141MM extension he signed in 2022. As for Kwan, the left fielder is a strong extension candidate himself after another terrific season.
Additional veterans in the lineup include the slugging Josh Naylor at first base, defensive stalwart Andrés Giménez at second, and trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas in center field. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo (DH), Bo Naylor (C), and Brayan Rocchio (SS) should have spots in next year’s starting nine as well. All three had up-and-down seasons, but considering their recent top prospect status, there’s little reason to think they won’t get to continue their development with the big league club in 2025. Indeed, the best way for Cleveland to improve its offense next year will be to get more production out of Manzardo, Bo Naylor, and Rocchio.
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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates were 54-52 on August 3 before a ten-game losing streak tanked their hopes of contention, and the Bucs ultimately finished with the same 76-86 record as they had in 2023. Amidst some larger questions about how well the rebuild is progressing, there will be a clear focus on upgrading the lineup this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Bryan Reynolds, OF: $88MM through 2030 (includes $2M buyout of $20MM club option for 2031)
- Mitch Keller, SP: $69.5MM through 2028
- Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $43MM through 2029 (includes $6MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2030)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, IF: $7.5MM through 2025 (Blue Jays covering roughly $1.22MM as per the terms of their July 2024 trade)
2025 financial commitments: $41.5MM
Total future commitments: $208MM
Option Decisions
- Marco Gonzales, SP: $15MM club option, no buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
- David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
- Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
- Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
- Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
- Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
- Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
- Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Joe, De La Cruz, Heller
Free Agents
Paul Skenes lived up to the hype, wowing the baseball world with a 1.99 ERA over 133 innings and looking all the world like a franchise player. Though he was somewhat overshadowed by Skenes and spent almost eight weeks on the injured list due to a lat strain, Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season. Behind these two star rookies, Mitch Keller was his usual solid self, Bailey Falter pitched well in his first full season as a Pirate, and Luis Ortiz had a lot of success after moving from the bullpen back into the rotation at midseason.
Since Marco Gonzales' club option won't be exercised, this group stands as the Pirates' provisional starting five heading into Spring Training. However, Johan Oviedo will also be healthy after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Down on the farm, top-100 prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, and other pitching prospects like Mike Burrows (who did toss his first 3 1/3 big league innings in 2024), Hunter Barco, and Anthony Solometo aren't far behind.
In short, Pittsburgh might soon become Pitch-burgh, with all of these young, controllable, and (except for Keller) inexpensive arms either in the majors or coming up the pipeline. Developing this much promising starting pitching is no small thing, and with Skenes leading the way, general manager Ben Cherington can certainly point to the Pirates' rotation as the key to the team's rebuilding efforts.
However, this rebuild has now resulted in six straight losing seasons, with the last five coming under Cherington's watch. While nobody expected Rome to be built in a day, the last two years have shown just enough promise to leave Pittsburgh fans disappointed when things fizzled out, and left wondering when exactly the Bucs will be turning the corner towards real contention.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Jarred Kelenic, rotation trade candidates, a Luis Arraez extension, the Blue Jays' infield, where the Nationals can look for a middle-of-the-order bat, contract projections for Juan Soto and Max Fried, a World Series prediction and much more!
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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Mets turned into a Cinderella campaign. They got stronger as the season went along and snuck into the playoffs, eventually reaching the NLCS. Now, they are set to lose a huge batch of players to free agency. That gives them plenty of holes to fill but a massive amount of spending capacity, meaning just about anything is possible this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Francisco Lindor, SS: $224MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
- Brandon Nimmo, OF: $121.5MM through 2030
- Edwin Díaz, RHP: $55.5MM through 2027 (includes buy-out on '28 club option; Diaz can opt-out after '25; some money deferred)
- Kodai Senga, RHP: $42MM through 2027 (deal includes conditional opt-out after '25 and conditional club option for '28)
- Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $33.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout on '27 club option)
- Starling Marte, OF: $19.5MM through 2025
Option Decisions
- Sean Manaea, LHP: $13.5MM player option
- Phil Maton, RHP $7.75MM club option with $250K buyout
Total 2025 commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $119.25MM
Total future commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $496.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)
- Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
- Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
- Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
- David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
- Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
- Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
- Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Blackburn, Torrens, Young, Stewart, Reid-Foley
Free Agents
- Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias
David Stearns was hired to be the president of baseball operations just as the 2023 season was winding down. That was a disappointing year for the Mets, as they had raised hopes with a strong 2022 season and then spent big in the offseason. But things fell apart and they ended up selling at the 2023 deadline, including sending out future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
Scherzer indicated to reporters that he agreed to be traded to the Rangers because he was told that 2024 would be "a kind of transitory year" for the Mets. The first offseason under Stearns seemed to reflect that, as the Mets backed away from the massive spending sprees that characterized previous winters. They did sign ten free agents, but nine of them were one-year deals and the only exception was the two-year deal for Sean Manaea, which came with an opt-out after year one.
The Mets got out to a rough start in 2024, losing their first five games. They had a record of 24-33 at the end of May. But everything turned around from there, as they went 65-40 in the final four months of the season, nabbing a Wild Card spot and going on a nice postseason run. Now the questions are about what's next.
Since the club gave so many short-term deals recently, a huge chunk of their roster is now heading to free agency. There's also some dead money coming off the books. The Scherzer and Verlander pacts are now done, as is their four-year James McCann deal. (He played the final two seasons of that pact in Baltimore, with the Mets covering most of the salary.) Stearns will have plenty of work to do in the next few months, but he should have a massive amount of spending capacity available to him.
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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
After finishing the 2023 season with the best record in baseball, the Braves disappointed somewhat in 2024 amid an avalanche of injuries to star players and underwhelming numbers from much of their offensive nucleus. This offseason, they'll need to reshape their rotation as their longest-tenured starter hits free agency while also overhauling their bench mix in hopes of re-capturing their hold over their NL East from the division-champion Phillies and a surging Mets club that made it all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Austin Riley, 3B: $176MM through 2032 (deal includes club option for 2033)
- Matt Olson, 1B: $110MM through 2029 (deal includes club option for 2030)
- Spencer Strider, RHP: $73MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout on 2029 club option)
- Michael Harris II, CF: $64MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout on 2031 club option; additional club option for '32)
- Sean Murphy, C: $60MM through 2028 (deal includes club option for 2029)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. RF: $44MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)
- Jorge Soler, RF: $32MM through 2026
- Reynaldo Lopez, RHP: $26MM through 2026 (includes $4MM buyout on 2027 club option)
- Chris Sale, LHP: $22MM through 2025 (deal includes club option for 2026)
- Joe Jimenez, RHP: $18MM through 2026
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $16MM through 2025
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $11MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on 2026 club option; additional club option for '27)
- David Fletcher, INF/RHP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $1.5MM buyout on 2026 club option)
- Pierce Johnson, RHP: $7.25MM through 2025 (includes $250K buyout on 2026 club option)
- Orlando Arcia, SS: $3MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout on 2026 club option)
Option Decisions
- Marcell Ozuna, DH: $16MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Travis d'Arnaud, C: $8MM club option with no buyout
- Aaron Bummer, LHP: $7.25MM club option with $1.25MM buyout (deal also includes $7.5MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
- Luke Jackson, RHP: $7MM club option with $2MM buyout
2025 financial commitments: $188.75MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $674.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
- Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
- Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
- Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
- Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
- Eli White (2.140): $800K
Non-tender candidates: Laureano, Biggio, Ynoa, White
Free Agents
Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Adam Duvall, Jesse Chavez, John Brebbia
With a number of quality players still under long-term team control, Atlanta remains firmly in the midst of its competitive window despite a disappointing 89-win campaign in 2024. The impending free agency of Max Fried, who has anchored the club's rotation for the past half decade, would perhaps be more concerning for the club's chances of rebounding in 2025 if GM Alex Anthopoulos's front office hadn't already successfully navigated the departures of both MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson in recent years.
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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS. This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trea Turner, SS: $245,454,546 through 2033
- Bryce Harper, 1B: $170MM through 2031
- Aaron Nola, SP: $147,428,571 through 2030
- Zack Wheeler, SP: $126MM through 2027
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $40MM through 2026
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $36MM through 2026
- J.T. Realmuto, C: $23.875M through 2025
- Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $20.5MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
- Kyle Schwarber, DH: $20MM through 2025
- Jose Alvarado, RP: $9.5MM through 2025 (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026)
- Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2025 (Phillies have $4.5MM club option for 2026)
2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Allard, Hays, Stubbs
Free Agents
The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games. Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.
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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Correa, SS: $128MM through 2028 (contract contains series of four vesting options)
- Pablo Lopez, RHP: $64.5MM through 2027
- Byron Buxton, CF: $60MM through 2028
- Christian Vazquez, C: $10MM through 2025
- Chris Paddack, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
- Randy Dobnak, RHP: $4MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026)
Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM
Option Decisions
- Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
- Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
- Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
- Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
- Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
- Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
- Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
- Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
- Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
- Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
- Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
- Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Tonkin, Topa, Kirilloff
Free Agents
It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.
The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.
Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.
Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.
Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).
Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
On the heels of one of the worst seasons in baseball history, the White Sox must stockpile young talent while operating under a cloud of uncertainty about the future of the franchise.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: $47.5MM through 2027
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: $15MM through 2025, with a $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 and the same club option for '27
Option Decisions
- Yoan Moncada, 3B: $25MM club option with a $5MM buyout
- Max Stassi, C: $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Additional Obligations
- Owe $1.5MM buyout to released RHP John Brebbia
- Owe $250K buyout to released C Martin Maldonado
2025 financial commitments: $40.75MM
Total future commitments: $71.75MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
- Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
- Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
- Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
- Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
- Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
- Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Lopez, Foster, De Los Santos, Vaughn, Anderson, Lambert, Sheets, Wilson
Free Agents
While we knew this team would be bad, we didn't realize it would be historically bad. The 2024 White Sox set the modern record for total losses with 121, and it easily could have been worse had they not surged to win five of their last six games. Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde were the only glimmers of hope, but the latter was traded and the former seems on his way out.
The Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol on August 8th, with Grady Sizemore serving as interim manager for the remainder of the season. Sizemore is at least under consideration for the full-time job, but the list of known candidates has also included Donnie Ecker, Will Venable, Clayton McCullough, Danny Lehman, George Lombard, A.J. Ellis, Phil Nevin, Daniel Descalso, and Skip Schumaker. Grifol was Rick Hahn's hire, so the new manager will be the first chosen by senior vice president/GM Chris Getz.
Beyond the managerial change, existential issues loom over the White Sox. One is whether longtime owner Jerry Reinsdorf intends to sell the team. On October 16th, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reported that Reinsdorf is "open to selling" the team, and furthermore, "is in active discussions with a group led by former big leaguer Dave Stewart." Stewart's involvement has led to speculation about potentially moving the team to Nashville, given the former pitcher's efforts to bring an MLB team to that city.
The Stewart rumor follows January news of Reinsdorf's aim of getting a new stadium built in a (Chicago) South Loop area called "The 78." A relocation threat is one of the oldest in the new-stadium playbook, of course, and Reinsdorf successfully leveraged a potential move to St. Petersburg back in 1988 to get the current Guaranteed Rate Field built in Chicago. Back in 1995, Reinsdorf famously said in reference to his St. Petersburg play in a Cigar Aficionado interview, "A savvy negotiator creates leverage. People had to think we were going to leave Chicago."
Moving from Chicago to St. Petersburg hardly made sense in terms of market size, and the same is true of Nashville now.
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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
Despite significant injuries on the pitching front, the Rays spent much of the season's first half in or on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. The front office took advantage of a seller's market at the deadline even though the club was hovering around .500, bolstering the farm, reducing payroll and setting the stage for what could be a quick turnaround.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $750K buyout of $15MM club option for 2027)
- Yandy Diaz, 1B: $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)
- Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $4.667MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $7MM club option for 2026)
- Shane McClanahan, LHP: $3.6MM through 2026 (McClanahan is arb-eligible for two more years thereafter)
2025 financial commitment: $27.766MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $40MM
Other Financial Obligations
- Wander Franco owed $172MM through 2032; Rays unlikely to pay remainder of contract due to abhorrent allegations against Franco and subsequent legal proceedings in Dominican Republic
- $2MM to Twins for buyout of Manuel Margot's 2025 club option
Option Decisions
- Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $10.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026 with $500K buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
- Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
- Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
- Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
- Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
- Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
- Taylor Walls (3.092): $1.3MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
- Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
- Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
- Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: Poche, Alexander, Carlson, Sulser, Walls, Lovelady
Free Agents
- None
As we began this year's Offseason Outlook series, the top focus for the Rays was understandably on the team's roster and reshaping an offense that lacked balance, struggled against righties and was far too whiff-prone. While the series was being written, however, a far broader-reaching issue arose. The awful damage stemming from Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene has wrought incalculable, heartbreaking levels of damage on the country's southeast region. The big-picture focus, of course, is on helping those impacted and rebuilding those ravaged communities. In the grand scheme of things, the logistical challenges a natural disaster of this magnitude presents to a baseball team are trivial, at best.
Nonetheless, for the Rays themselves, Hurricane Milton created an unexpected and undeniable challenge the team will have to address. The roof of Tropicana Field was shredded, exposing a stadium interior that does not have a drainage system. It's not yet clear when the facility could return to a serviceable state, but the Rays aren't likely to have their home field available to them to begin the 2025 season. They'll spend as much time and energy this offseason determining where they'll play their home games as they will augmenting their roster. We at MLBTR extend our deepest and most heartfelt condolences to all affected by the tragedy in the southeast.
Turning to the baseball operations side of the offseason, the Rays have a clear picture of what went wrong. Tampa Bay entered the 2024 campaign with an injury-ravaged rotation. Starters Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor tendon surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) were set to miss some or all of the 2024 season while recovering from surgery. Former top pitching prospect Shane Baz was finishing off recovery from his own Tommy John procedure, performed late in the 2022 season.
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