Astros Could Use Zack Greinke In Relief In Postseason
The Astros are two wins away from wrapping up an AL West title that would lock in a Division Series matchup with the White Sox. That series could see one of Houston’s most prominent hurlers working in a relief capacity.
Zack Greinke landed on the 10-day injured list last week because of neck soreness, his second trip to the IL this month. He’s expected to conclude his regular season with a rehab start on Thursday for Triple-A Sugar Land, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Jake Kaplan of the Athletic). Asked about Greinke’s potential postseason role, Baker said using him in relief is “a very distinct possibility.”
Using Greinke in shorter stints would primarily be motivated by workload concerns. The veteran righty has made just two big league starts this month, topping out at 75 pitches on September 14 against the Rangers. With the postseason kicking off next week, there’s some concern Greinke might not be able to ramp back up to work 100+ pitches in a traditional start.
Even independent of injury limitations, it’s debatable whether his performance merits a spot in the Astros’ top three or four starters this fall. Greinke’s 4.11 ERA ranks fifth among Houston’s six starters (minimum 50+ innings), and his peripherals land in a similar position. His 17% strikeout rate is the lowest on staff, while his 11.8 percentage point strikeout/walk rate differential ranks fifth on the team. Greinke ranks fifth on the club in SIERA (4.58) and last in swinging strike rate (9.1%).
Quite obviously, Greinke’s no longer the ace he was at his peak. The former Cy Young award winner’s 2021 season has been average or slightly worse by most metrics. He still has fantastic command, but Greinke’s stuff has dipped to the point where he’s best suited in the middle or back of a rotation.
But Greinke’s potential exclusion from a postseason rotation is also a testament to the strength of the Astros’ other options. Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. have each ridden huge ground-ball rates to an ERA below 3.25. Luis García should garner some Rookie of the Year support after tossing 144 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball with better than average strikeout and walk rates. José Urquidy doesn’t post big strikeout totals, but he’s a control artist who stays off barrels and perennially outperforms his peripherals. And while Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been fantastic, he’s posted similar numbers as Greinke has, giving Baker and the front office plenty of starting options to choose from come October.
Baker also provided an update on Michael Brantley (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The left fielder could be reinstated from his own IL stint “in the next couple days,” suggesting he should be ready to go for the postseason. One of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, Brantley has a characteristically strong .315/.367/.441 line (126 wRC+) in 493 plate appearances.
Astros Activate Jake Odorizzi, Option Seth Martinez
The Astros activated Jake Odorizzi to start today’s game against the A’s. To clear a roster spot, Seth Martinez has been optioned to Triple-A, per Jake Kaplan of the Athletic (via Twitter).
Odorizzi’s postseason role is not yet clear, but he can nonetheless provide value here in the waning days of the regular season. He should have two more starts to audition for playoff usage. The 31-year-old has tossed 96 innings with a 4.22 ERA/4.60 FIP, 21.3 percent strikeout rate, 7.7 percent walk rate, and 35.8 percent groundball rate.
Though the Astros have lost three in a row, they should clinch the AL West sometime in the next couple of days. They could clinch as early as today with a win over the A’s and a Mariners loss. Houston can begin to think ahead to setting up their playoff rotation for an ALDS showdown with the White Sox.
Martinez, 27, had just a cup of coffee, making three appearances this past week. After a pair of scoreless outings, Martinez was tagged for five earned runs his last time out against Oakland on Friday.
Carlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement
Former major league outfielder Carlos Gómez officially announced his retirement this afternoon in a ceremony at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (video via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The announcement finalizes the end of a 13-year major league career.
Of course, there hasn’t been much doubt that Gómez’s playing days had already concluded. The 35-year-old last played in the majors in 2019, and he hasn’t played professionally since wrapping up a stint with the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League between 2019-20. Reports out of the Dominican Republic in January 2020 indicated Gómez’s playing days were likely coming to an end, but he hadn’t publicly finalized that decision until today.
Gómez ceremoniously hung up his spikes as a Brewer, with whom he had the best run of his career. Acquired from the Twins over the 2009-10 offseason, the electric center fielder spent the next four and a half seasons with the Brew Crew. At his peak, Gómez was one of the sport’s top power-speed threats. Between 2013 and 2014, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.347/.491 line with 47 home runs. He chipped in 74 stolen bases over those two seasons while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Gómez earned down-ballot MVP support in both of those campaigns, and few players could match his well-rounded skillset. Over that two-year stretch, Gómez ranked seventh among all position players in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, trailing only Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, teammate Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson.
Milwaukee traded Gómez to the Astros at the 2015 deadline for then-prospects Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. It proved an opportune time for the Brewers to add an influx of young talent still helping the team immensely today, as Gómez’s productivity was never quite the same from that point forward. As he entered his 30’s, Gómez bounced around the league with a few clubs. He ended his playing days with the Mets, ironically the team that initially signed him as a 16-year-old back in 2002.
Gómez appeared in the majors with six different clubs over the course of his career, although he’ll be best known for his peak in Milwaukee. He appeared in 1461 MLB games and hit .252/.313/.411 with 145 home runs, 236 doubles and 41 triples. Gómez stole 268 bases, scored 675 runs and drove in 546. He appeared in two All-Star Games and won a Gold Glove during his aforementioned star-level peak. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his career at around 25 WAR. MLBTR congratulates Gómez on a very fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.
Astros’ Prospect Freudis Nova Undergoes Knee Surgery
SEPTEMBER 23: Nova underwent surgery to repair the ACL injury, Jake Kaplan of the Athletic was among those to relay. He’s expected to miss the first half of the 2022 season. The Astros will need to reinstate Nova from the injured list over the offseason, but they can place him back on the 60-day IL at the start of next season to reopen 40-man roster space. Nova will receive major league salary and service time as long as he’s on the major league 60-day IL.
SEPTEMBER 20: The Astros are selecting reliever Seth Martinez to the MLB roster, relays Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Peter Solomon has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land in a corresponding move. To clear space for Martinez on the 40-man roster, minor league infielder Freudis Nova has been recalled and placed on the major league 60-day injured list.
Martinez is up for his first major league action. The right-hander was selected by the division-rival A’s in the 17th round of the 2016 draft coming out of Arizona State University. He spent the next four seasons in the Oakland system, topping out at Double-A. The Astros snagged him in the minor league phase of last winter’s Rule 5 draft and gave him an opportunity at the minors’ top level.
In his first crack against Triple-A hitters, Martinez has found plenty of success working in a multi-inning relief capacity. He’s soaked up 56 2/3 frames over 35 appearances with the Skeeters, posting a 2.86 ERA despite the generally hitter-friendly Triple-A environment. Martinez has backed that run prevention up with fantastic peripherals, striking out a huge 33.5% of opposing hitters while issuing free passes at an 8.8% rate. The 27-year-old has impressively gotten better at missing bats as he’s faced higher-level opponents. After posting just a 20% strikeout rate in Low-A in 2017, he’s successively improved his strikeout percentage year by year (25% at High-A in 2018, 29% at Double-A in 2019, 34% this season in Triple-A) to earn himself a big league look.
Nova, who was added to the 40-man roster last offseason to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft, has spent the 2021 season with High-A Asheville. The 21-year-old suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last week. Obviously, he won’t play again this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the issue affects his early-season availability in 2022. (The team didn’t provide any sort of timetable on his recovery).
It’s a disappointing development for one of the Astros’ more promising infield prospects. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic in July 2016, Nova quickly rose near the top of the organization in the eyes of some evaluators. His stock has slipped thanks to disappointing performances in recent seasons — including a .224/.301/.335 line in 282 High-A plate appearances this year — but he still checked in 27th on Baseball America’s midseason update of Astros’ farmhands.
In a bit of a silver lining in an otherwise frustrating situation, Nova will at least pick up his first big league service time and pay for the season’s final two weeks. Players on the minor league injured list don’t accrue MLB service or pay but do continue to count against a team’s 40-man roster. In order to open the 40-man spot, the Astros will give Nova a bump in salary for the rest of the regular season.
Ryan Pressly Reaches Vesting Threshold, Guarantees 2022 Salary
Astros closer Ryan Pressly made his 60th appearance of the season in yesterday’s 9-5 win over the Angels, thus reaching an important contractual milestone. As noted by The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome, the Astros’ $10MM club option on Pressly’s services for 2022 has now vested into a fully guaranteed deal.
The original terms of Pressly’s two-year extension with the Astros guaranteed the reliever at least $17.5MM in new money, plus a $7MM club option for 2022. That $7MM figure rose to $10MM once Pressly appeared in his 40th game of the 2021 season, and the option automatically vested if Pressly made 60 or more appearances in both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. Due to the shortened nature of the 2020 season, Pressly’s threshold for last season was adjusted to 23 games, and the right-hander hit that benchmark in Houston’s third-last game of the 60-game regular season schedule.
In all likelihood, Pressly’s option would’ve been a very easy call for the Astros to make even if he hadn’t reached the vesting threshold. The 32-year-old has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year, delivering a 2.19 ERA/2.35 SIERA over 61 2/3 innings and converting 25 of 27 save chances. As per the Statcast metrics, Pressly’s 33.2% strikeout rate and 5.0% walk rate are each in the 94th percentile, while his chase rate and spin rates on both his curveball and his 95.4mph fastball are in even more elite status (Pressly ranks first among all qualified pitchers in curve spin). To top it off, Pressly’s 54.8% grounder rate was also the best of his nine MLB seasons.
This now makes four consecutive seasons of elite work for Pressly, acquired by the Astros from the Twins in a deadline deal in 2018. Already a strong setup man, Pressly has emerged as Houston’s top ninth-inning option over the last two seasons, which only further enhanced his value to the bullpen. Pressly has been named to the AL All-Star team in both 2019 and 2021.
With Pressly’s salary now officially on the books, the Astros have $101.9MM committed to nine players (Pressly, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Lance McCullers Jr., Jake Odorizzi, Pedro Baez, Martin Maldonado, and Jason Castro). That number will almost surely rise to $109.9MM for 10 players, since Yuli Gurriel‘s $8MM club option looks very likely to be exercised considering Gurriel’s impressive numbers. The team will have plenty of major holes to fill considering Carlos Correa, Zack Greinke, and the injured Justin Verlander will all be free agents, but since the Astros reset their luxury tax number and began this season with a payroll just shy of $188MM, Houston should have plenty of room to spend this winter.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/18/21
The latest minor league transactions from around baseball…
- The Astros outrighted Robel Garcia to Triple-A after the infielder cleared waivers. Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week, marking the fifth time in the last 14 months that Garcia has gone through the DFA process, though this is the first time he hasn’t been claimed by another team. After being claimed by the Astros last February, Garcia has spent the entire season in Houston’s organization, posting only a .423 OPS over 117 big league plate appearances but chipping in as a utility infielder. Garcia has a .189/.321/.422 slash line over 109 PA at Triple-A Sugar Land.
Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi
After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth‘s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list. It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters. The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.
Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup. Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers. Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.
More injury updates from around baseball….
- Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch. X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers. That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury. After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
- After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit. However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days. Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls. MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
- The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.” The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning. Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.
Injury Notes: Winker, Brantley, Archer, Brogdon
Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday. He’s played there each of the past two nights and will start for the Bats again this evening but could return to the big league club as soon as tomorrow, manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). Cincinnati begins a difficult three-game set with the Dodgers this weekend.
Winker has been one of the game’s best hitters this season, following up on a fantastic shortened 2020 campaign with the best numbers of his career. Across 481 plate appearances, Winker owns a .307/.395/.560 line with 24 home runs. Even after accounting for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home ballpark, that offensive output checks in 52 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, a mark that trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Juan Soto among players with more than 400 trips to the plate. Reinstalling that kind of impact bat into the order would be huge for a Reds’ team that enters play today one and a half games back of the division-rival Cardinals for the National League’s final playoff spot (with the Padres also half a game up on them in the standings).
Some other injury situations for contending clubs around the league:
- The Astros placed Michael Brantley on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, last night because of right knee soreness. The club didn’t provide any sort of timetable for his return, but there’s no indication it’s anything more than a precautionary absence. Houston holds a commanding seven game lead in the AL West thanks to recent scuffles by the A’s and Mariners, so there’s no reason to push one of their top performers before the start of the postseason. The ever-consistent Brantley is having another very good year, hitting .315/.367/.441 in 493 plate appearances.
- Rays right-hander Chris Archer may not make it back to the field in 2021, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 32-year-old, who returned to Tampa Bay on a one-year deal worth $6.5MM this offseason, has been slowed by hip troubles in recent weeks and is seeking outside opinions on the matter before determining a course of treatment. Once the Rays’ top starter, Archer came back to Tropicana Field in hopes of revitalizing his career following a 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. He’s been limited to just 19 2/3 innings, however, due to a forearm injury early in the season and the recent hip troubles that have surfaced.
- The Phillies placed reliever Connor Brogdon on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain yesterday. He “probably” won’t return this season, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Brogdon has been one of the more reliable arms in a shaky Philly bullpen, tossing 55 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. The right-hander hasn’t missed bats at the huge level he flashed in a small sample last season, but he’s thrown strikes and induced grounders at a slightly above-average rate. Brogdon has worked mostly in medium-leverage situations this season, but his loss further thins a relief corps that leads baseball with 32 blown saves. Those bullpen woes are perhaps the biggest reason the Phils enter play today three and a half games behind the Braves in the NL East and three games back in the Wild Card hunt.
Astros Designate Robel Garcia For Assignment
The Astros are designating infielder Robel García for assignment, relays Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Reliever Rafael Montero was also transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. The moves create a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster needed to reinstate Taylor Jones and Andre Scrubb from the injured list (Jones from the COVID-19 IL, Scrubb from the 60-day version). Both Jones and Scrubb were optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.
García has had one of the crazier career arcs of any player over the past few seasons. He spent a few years at the lowest levels of the Indians system but was released having topped out in Low-A. The Cubs spotted García playing professional ball in Italy a few years later and signed him to a minor league deal going into the 2019 season.
Assigned to Double-A, García mashed over the season’s first month before being bumped up to the minors’ top level. He popped 21 home runs in just 296 Triple-A plate appearances to earn his first big league call that July. The switch-hitting infielder hit another five homers in 80 trips to the plate at the big league level, but he also struck out 35 times.
Chicago designated García for assignment last July, and he spent the campaign at the Reds’ alternate training site after Cincinnati claimed him off waivers. He briefly landed with the Mets and Angels via waiver claim over the offseason and stuck with Houston after the Astros claimed him in February. He’s taken 117 plate appearances at the major league level this season, struggling to a .151/.216/.208 line with a huge 35.9% strikeout rate. The utilityman has had similar swing-and-miss issues in Triple-A, hitting .189/.321/.422 in 109 trips to the plate.
The Astros will now place García on outright or release waivers. His combination of power and ability to cover any position on the dirt has attracted the interest of a few teams around the league, although his continued strikeout problems have kept him from producing much to date at the big league level. García still has a minor league option year remaining after this season, so it’s possible a team could claim him and keep him in the system as high minors infield depth.
Houston acquired Montero alongside Kendall Graveman as part of a deadline deal with the Mariners. Montero had underperformed in Seattle and was included in the deal largely to offset salary. He performed well over his first four appearances with the Astros, tossing six innings of one-run ball. Unfortunately, right shoulder discomfort landed him on the IL just a couple weeks after the trade.
Today’s transfer rules Montero out for sixty days from August 10, the date of his initial IL placement. It’s theoretically possible he could make it back for a postseason run, but it seems more likely he won’t return this season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the fourth and final time of his career this offseason. If tendered a contract, he’d be in line for a slight raise on this season’s $2.25MM salary.
Scrubb returns for the first time since mid-July, when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain. The 26-year-old has worked 19 2/3 frames of 5.03 ERA ball, striking out a decent 24.4% of batters faced but issuing walks at an alarming 16.3% clip. Jones, meanwhile, is back after missing a couple weeks upon testing positive for the coronavirus. He’s hitting .245/.269/.402 across 108 plate appearances.
AL West Notes: Calhoun, Yordan, Murphy
Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun missed nearly three months of the 2021 season after suffering a broken arm upon being hit by a pitch, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this week, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The club has 18 games left to get a look at Calhoun before determining whether to tender him a contract in arbitration this winter, and manager Chris Woodward offered no certainties when discussing Calhoun’s future. “Unfortunately, he hasn’t played enough for us to really evaluate him,” Woodward said (via Grant). “So, we may have to make a really tough decision one way or the other. We’re going to have to kind of go out on a limb.”
Calhoun, 27 this offseason, was the headlining prospect the Rangers received from the Dodgers in 2017’s Yu Darvish trade. He’s yet to establish himself as a consistently productive hitter, however, and was batting a rather pedestrian .254/.323/.385 in 226 plate appearances before heading to the injured list. Calhoun’s lack of playing time and career .248/.304/.418 batting line to date will limit his arbitration price. That, coupled with the fact that he has a minor league option remaining in 2022, could be a saving grace. So long as the Rangers don’t mind carrying him on the 40-man roster, there’s little downside in tendering him a contract, but Woodward’s mention of a “tough decision” appears to indicate that there’s at least some debate on how to proceed.
Some more notes from the division…
- Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is getting increased defensive reps in at first base and could begin seeing time there in games, manager Dusty Baker told reporters this week (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Alvarez, 24, played some first base in the minors but hasn’t appeared there in the Majors yet. He’s only played 317 innings of defense since debuting in 2019 — all of which have come in left field. The ‘Stros have Yuli Gurriel as their everyday option at first base, and his $8MM club option for the 2022 season is a no-brainer to be exercised after a terrific 2021 season. Still, getting Alvarez some work at first would provide a safety net should Gurriel need to miss time and would also give the Astros an option on days where they hope to rest Gurriel, who’ll turn 38 next June. Looking beyond the ’22 campaign, at which point Gurriel will be a free agent, it’d obviously be a bonus if the ‘Stros felt comfortable playing Alvarez at first base on at least a part-time basis. Given the knee troubles he’s already had in his career, Alvarez might not be a full-time option either in left field or at first base for Houston, but the more ways they have to keep him and his outstanding career .293/.375/.584 batting line (906 plate appearances) in the lineup, the better.
- Mariners catcher Tom Murphy chatted with Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times about his rebound from an awful start to the year — a stretch he called “the lowest point in my baseball career.” Murphy’s roster spot looked to be in jeopardy at one point, but he’s rebounded since mid-May, hitting .236/.346/.408 with eight homers in his past 208 trips to the plate. His season line still rests at an ugly .205/.304/.373, but that’s weighed down by those first six weeks. Murphy didn’t play in 2020 after fouling a ball into his foot and suffering a fracture during Mariners “Summer Camp,” so the slow start after such a long layoff is somewhat understandable. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter, giving the Mariners three potential options behind the dish alongside Luis Torrens and prospect Cal Raleigh. Had Murphy’s struggles continued, he’d have been a clear non-tender candidate. That possibility can’t be expressly ruled out even with the rebound, but the forthcoming raise on his modest $875K salary figures to be relatively minimal. Murphy hit .273/.324/.535 in 281 plate appearances with the Mariners back in 2019.