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Cafardo’s Latest: Clippard, Thornton, Cobb, Lee, Free Agents

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It’s easy to buy into Spring Training hype, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes in his latest column as he looks at some of the major Red Sox storylines heading into camp.  While the Sox have drawn mostly approval for their offseason dealings, Cafardo warns that pundits were saying the same thing last year prior to Boston’s last place season.  Here’s some more from Cafardo’s piece…

  • The Astros have asked about Tyler Clippard.  Houston has already made a couple of big offseason moves to reinforce their bullpen in trading for Ken Giles and re-signing Tony Sipp, and adding Clippard would only further deepen a relief corps that also includes Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Pat Neshek and Josh Fields.  Clippard’s market was fairly quiet for much of the winter, though as Cafardo notes, things have started to heat up for the veteran righty with at least six teams (including the Rays and Diamondbacks) showing interest.
  • Matt Thornton is drawing interest from around six teams, though the veteran lefty may have to settle for a minor league contract.  Thornton turned 39 in September and has a 1.98 ERA over 77 1/3 innings in 2014 and 2015, though with only a 5.9 K/9 in that stretch, ERA predictors such as xFIP (4.19) and SIERA (3.79) are less enthused with his performance over the last two years.  The Braves, Pirates and Twins were all rumored to have some interest in Thornton earlier this offseason.
  • The Rays are likely to keep their pitching, despite “quite a bit of interest” from other teams about Alex Cobb.
  • Teams have considered signing Cliff Lee, though they’re wary of giving him a contract in the range of $6MM-$8MM (plus incentives).
  • Dan Uggla’s agent says that teams have called about his client, though no side has made any commitments.  The veteran infielder is another player who is likely to only find a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.
  • “It’s just so slow out there” for the large number of veteran players still on the market, one agent tells Cafardo.  This offseason has been the apex of a growing trend in recent years for teams to spend on a few high-salaried stars and then rely on young, cheap talent for the rest of the roster rather than spend more on established veterans.  This not only goes for the rank-and-file veterans looking for bench jobs but also for would-be starters like Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, all of whom have had their markets slowed by the qualifying offer-attached draft compensation required to sign them.  “The [draft-pick] compensation issue is a factor, no question, and we have to do something about it with our collective bargaining talks because this is hurting good baseball players getting jobs,” the agent said.
  • An AL general manager, however, implies that some agents should perhaps be a bit more realistic about their demands.  “The agents are still asking for major league guarantees for players who should be grateful for major league invitations and minor league deals,” the GM said.  “I hear the agents blaming the teams, but I think a lot of teams are willing to add these players. But we’re in February, and quite frankly the signings need to be on our terms at this stage of the game. Eventually, these guys will break down and sign minor deals but we’re close to spring training and there hasn’t been a lot of bend.”

Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

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The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

  • The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
  • J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
  • The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
  • While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Cafardo On Lincecum, Lucroy, Fister

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The Giants are just about done with making offseason moves, GM Bobby Evans tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Evans has been monitoring free agent Tim Lincecum, but he doesn’t anticipate a reunion since the team already boasts a star-studded starting five.  Cafardo raises the idea that Lincecum could be in store for a bullpen role in 2016, but Evans’ comments make it seem as though that won’t take place in San Francisco.

Before being shut down midway through the season, Lincecum had posted a 4.13 ERA, although with a 7.1 K/9 and a high 4.5 BB/9 that were even less impressive than that modest ERA figure. His average fastball velocity also fell from 89.6 MPH in 2014 to 87.2 MPH. Lincecum will probably be forced to settle for a one-year deal as he looks to come back from hip surgery entering his age-32 season.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • “A few baseball folks” tell Cafardo that they get the sense something is brewing with Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  The Brewers backstop has a limited no-trade clause, but teams such as the Astros and Nationals could have interest in adding a top catcher like Lucroy.  The veteran isn’t coming off his best season, but his highly contract still makes him an attractive trade target. Lucroy is set to earn just $4MM in 2016 and $5.25MM (or a $250K buyout) in 2017.
  • A few teams had concerns about the medicals on Doug Fister, one NL team official told Cafardo. Fister got a one-year, $7MM deal from the Astros, but some teams thought they could get him on a minor league deal.  Fister, soon-to-be 32, could be a bounceback candidate for Houston. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things went south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.
  • One NL scout tells Cafardo that free agent shortstop Ian Desmond should move to third base. “I think he would be excellent there,” said the scout. “He’s a shortstop who probably doesn’t have the great range, but he’d be very good at third. He’s a great kid in the clubhouse who works hard. At some point, there has got to be a team, maybe one who has a pick at the end of the first round, who’d give that up for a guy like this.”  As the former All-Star continues to sit on the open market, some have wondered if a deal could be possible with the Rays.
  • Mat Latos remains on the open market in part because of a perceived attitude problem.  One NL official believes that he needs some discipline to stay in line.  “You would need a strong manager to keep him in line and acting the way you want him to act. A Buck Showalter, a Bruce Bochy, a Dusty Baker. The guy really competes, but he just gets too outspoken for his own good,” the official said.

AL Notes: Vogt, Fister, White Sox, Moustakas, Plouffe, Royals

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Athletics catcher Stephen Vogt will likey miss four to six weeks after elbow surgery, MLB.com’s Jan Lee tweets. He is still expected to be good to go for the start of the season, though he’ll be delayed in getting going this spring.

Here are a few more notes from around the American League:

  • Doug Fister’s MRI with the Astros did not gum up the deal, but nevertheless showed some cause for concern, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter links). “There is some risk, but we’re confident he’s going to be healthy this year,” said Luhnow.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn made clear today that the team feels urgency to win, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com reports. Hahn acknowledged frustration that “we haven’t been able to convert on any [free agent] targets,” as CSNChicago.com’s Dan Hayes reports, but told fans that “there still is the possibility we are going to have changes before camp or Opening Day.”
  • Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas says that his representatives have talked to the club about a two-year contract arrangement, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports on Twitter. “I think it’s extremely important ,” he said. “We are blessed with some very unique, special talent on this roster right now.”
  • Coming into the winter, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe seemed a plausible trade piece, but we never heard much buzz on that front. Minnesota GM Terry Ryan tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that the club did not consider scenarios for a deal — let alone make Plouffe available to other clubs.
  • The Royals’ many successes have led many to point to their outstanding pen as a model of sorts, and ESPN.com’s Jayoson Stark (Insider link) explains that it has helped drive the idea of relying heavily on a relief corps. But the rise of the importance of the relief pitcher has other, deeper causes, Stark argues.

International Notes: Lee, Fernandez, Heredia, Bell

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KBO and NPB slugger Dae-ho Lee is reportedly drawing interest from MLB organizations, and has put up some strong numbers over the years. But he remains a difficult player to peg, as a Korean scout tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (Twitter link). “Maybe Carlos Lee minus some power,” the scout said when asked for a comp. “It’s tough. He is not typical, that’s for sure.”

Here are some more international notes, courtesy of Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who has a significant update on currently (or soon-to-be) available Cuban talent that isn’t subject to bonus pool restrictions.

  • Cuban infielder Jose Fernandez has long had his share of attention, though he’s been delayed in reaching the majors. While he is on track to finally have that chance, once he achieves free agency, he’s had to delay his scheduled showcase, Badler notes. It appears that Fernandez has dengue fever, which would certainly make it hard for him to put his best foot forward for scouts. It’s worth noting, too, that it’s already proving to be a tough time to sign for established major league infielders, though it’s always hard to know how things will look in a few months’ time.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia is still unsigned despite a lengthy stint on the open market, with teams not sold on his bat. The Cubs and Astros are among the teams that have had him in for private workouts, though, Badler says.
  • Badler provides plenty of interesting analysis and insight into a variety of other players, including “unorthodox” but “tooled up” infielder Luis Yander La O and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez (who Badler compares to Daniel Nava). Shortstop Luis Valdes would draw interest, says Badler, and appears to be off of the island and readying to attempt a big league career. Outfielder Urmani Guerra is set to showcase on February 4th and could profile as a fourth outfielder. And outfielder/infielder Maikel Caceres, 32, could get a shot with an organization. He is said to have drawn some interest from the Padres and Tigers.
  • Outfielder Alexei Bell has long been a successful player in Cuba and internationally, but like Lee he’s facing a hard-to-guess market situation as a player who is already well into his thirties. Of course, he’s still waiting to reach free agency and put on a showcase on February 15, so we don’t yet have much of an idea of what kind of interest he’ll receive, though Badler says that interest has waned as Bell has aged. If you want to get an idea of his physical skills, be sure to check out this highlight video.

Astros Sign Doug Fister

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The Astros have announced the signing of righty Doug Fister to a one-year deal. The PSI Sports Management client will receive a $7MM guarantee in the contract, which includes incentives that can boost its total value to $12MM, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Heading into the winter, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a one-year pact in the $10MM range for the towering right-hander. While he falls shy of that, in terms of guarantee, Dierkes rightly pegged Houston as the landing spot.

Aug 30, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Doug Fister (33) pitches during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to see the appeal for an Astros club that has plenty of rotation options, but still carried some uncertainty. Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. It’s not exactly clear how things will line up otherwise, but the depth looks solid. Youngster Lance McCullers Jr. showed so much promise last year that it’s hard not to imagine him in the rotation. Scott Feldman is still facing some injury uncertainty after he was shut down late last year, though he says he’s healthy. And Mike Fiers had good results upon joining Houston, including a no-hitter, though he also could feature as a high-end swingman.

Fister, who’ll soon turn 32, is a classic bounceback candidate. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things took a turn south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.

Though he showed better form working out of the pen, there are some concerns that extend beyond the results. Fister has never been reliant on velocity, but his average sinker lost 1.7 ticks in dropping all the way to 86.1 mph in 2015. Typically a reliable groundball producer, Fister induced grounders on just 44.6% of the balls put in play against him.

Fister also allowed home runs at a much higher rate than usual in his final season in D.C. And while he’s never been a strikeout pitcher, his 5.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 represented the worst K:BB ratio he’s logged since his debut season. Advanced metrics have always lagged results for the veteran, but they were especially down on him last year. He ended up with a 4.55 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA to accompany the 4.19 ERA that he tallied over his 103 total frames.

Of course, Fister battled through a forearm strain to open the year, which could go a long way towards explaining his struggles. If he can build up in camp at full strength, it isn’t hard to imagine that he might return to being a quality rotation piece — even if it would be a bit optimistic to expect a repeat of that 2014 effort. While he hasn’t always put up huge innings tallies, Fister has generally been rather durable over his career, and the Astros will surely hope he can fill up some frames with average-or-better run prevention numbers in 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1-27-16

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Here are today’s minor league signings from around baseball…

  • The Cubs and left-handed reliever Nick Greenwood have agreed to a minor league contract, MLBTR has learned. The 28-year-old Greenwood was originally drafted by the Padres in 2009 but traded to the Cardinals in the three-team Jake Westbrook/Corey Kluber/Ryan Ludwick trade back in 2010. Greenwood made a brief appearance in the Majors last season but was more heavily relied upon in 2014, when he pitched 36 innings with a 4.75 ERA and a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio for St. Louis. The Rhode Island product has been used as both a starter and a reliever throughout his minor league career, though he’ll return to working primarily as a reliever in 2016 after starting for much of the 2015 campaign. Greenwood has a lifetime 4.99 ERA at the Triple-A level, where he’s averaged 4.9 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings of work. Greenwood’s deal doesn’t contain an invite to big league Spring Training, so he’ll hope to earn his way back to the Majors by replicating his 2014 performance from Triple-A.
  • The Astros announced yesterday that they’ve signed left-hander Edwar Cabrera and infielder Danny Worth to minor league deals. The 28-year-old Cabrera briefly saw Major League time with the Rockies in 2012 but has otherwise spent his career in the minors, where he owns a 4.21 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 77 innings at the Triple-A level and a 3.15 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 277 innings at Double-A. As for Worth, the 30-year-old has considerably more big league experience, having tallied 292 plate appearances with the Tigers from 2010-14. He’s a career .230/.293/.295 hitter in the Majors but can play all over the infield and owns a .256/.335/.374 batting line in parts of eight seasons at Triple-A. Both Worth and Cabrera were invited to Major League Spring Training.
  • The Rangers announced today that they’ve re-signed right-hander Nick Tepesch to a minor league deal and invited him to Spring Training. The 27-year-old missed the 2015 season and underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in August, but the press release announcing the move indicates that he’s throwing off a mound and will be ready for Spring Training. Tepesch appeared in 42 games — 39 of them starts — for the Rangers from 2013-14, logging a 4.56 ERA with 5.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 219 innings of work. Presumably, he’ll serve as rotation depth.

Quick Hits: PEDs, Computer Breach, Tanking, Extensions

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Major league baseball will work with the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) in its investigation of PED allegations arising from a recent Al Jazeera report, ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn reports. Several players were implicated in that report, including Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies. “We’ve had discussions with USADA and are hopeful that together we can make progress in this investigation,” said the league’s chief legal officer, Dan Halem. As Quinn explains, it’s an unprecedented level of interaction between the league and the agency. The NFL, on the other hand, won’t be participating in the arrangement.

Here are some more notes of general interest from around the game:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that commissioner Rob Manfred must not show any favoritism towards the Cardinals and owner Bill DeWitt in assessing whether and how to issue penalties arising from the improper accessing of the Astros’ computer systems by former Cards scouting director Chris Correa. (For the latest information on that, read here and here.) Manfred and DeWitt enjoy a good relationship, as the commissioner himself made clear in comments to Rosenthal. But the top league official also left no room for interpretation as to his intentions, telling FOX Sports: “I think what the owners expect me to do — regardless of what my relationship [with an owner] may or may not be personally — is do the right thing by the institution. That’s what I intend to do when I have all the facts about the Houston-St. Louis thing.”
  • There’s been some debate recently about the subject of “tanking,” and both Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and Buster Olney of ESPN.com weighed in on it yesterday. Cameron argues that there aren’t strong enough incentives for MLB teams to lose on purpose in pursuit of better positions for amateur talent. Olney counters that some talent evaluators in the game see a real and growing problem. Manfred’s own recent take on the matter is well worth consideration as well.
  • ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden takes a crack (Insider link) at valuing some possible extensions of top young players around the game. He has Bryce Harper at just over $400MM, which is also the rough price range that MLBTR’s Steve Adams and MLBTR’s readers have previously landed at. It’s an interesting thought experiment, and is well worth a read. I would take some issue, however, with the spread between his $100MM+ valuations on players like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor and his approximately seven-year, $70MM estimates for the two Red Sox players on the list, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
  • Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper offers an interesting and sometimes sobering look at some of the very best prospects that never made it to the major leagues.

West Notes: Rosario, Lincecum, Blackmon, Athletics

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The Astros organization is mourning the loss of 20-year-old pitcher Jose Rosario, who died in a motorcycle accident yesterday evening in his native Dominican Republic. Rosario pitched in the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League last year. The organization’s international director Oz Ocampo praised Rosario as “a beloved member of the Astros Latin American program.” Ocampo continued: “He will be remembered as a long, lanky-framed pitcher with tremendous ability, an outgoing personality and an ever-positive disposition. He was a true student of the game and was constantly looking to learn and improve his abilities. He was also a supportive teammate, as he made it a point to encourage his fellow Astros and deliver that message with a smile on his face. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Rosario family.” We here at MLBTR join in that message.

Here are the latest notes from the game’s western divisions:

  • The Padres are interested in free agent righty Tim Lincecum, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. He notes that the Marlins also are continuing to look at the former Giants star, along with other teams, as he readies for a planned February showcase after undergoing hip surgery last year.
  • Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon says he was surprised that the team decided to bring in yet another left-handed outfield bat in Gerardo Parra, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. “I was little perplexed at first,” said Blackmon. “Because I didn’t really see it coming. Going into the offseason, I didn’t know that was in play, really. But after looking at it, he’s a great player. I’ve played against him, seen him play. He’s got one of the best arms in the league. He can only make our team better.” Blackmon, of course, continues to draw trade chatter, all the more so after the Parra signing, but he said he’s not bothered by the rumors — while rightly noting that it’s always “good to be relevant.”
  • Athletics closer Sean Doolittle says he is ready to go for spring camp without any restrictions after dealing with shoulder issues last year, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. “I promised I wouldn’t tell anybody I’m in the best shape of my life because I’ll never be 21 again,” said Doolittle. “But I think this is the most important offseason of my career, and I’ve been going about it with that mentality.”
  • Meanwhile, the Athletics aren’t yet sure what to expect from outfielder Coco Crisp, Slusser adds. Though he’s beginning to swing the bat, it isn’t yet clear how he’ll bounce back from an injury-plagued 2015. DH Billy Butler is another question mark, but he says he’s “got a lot left in the tank,” as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Butler will look to build upon a solid final month in an otherwise forgettable season. “I’m in good shape. I’m strong. Everything’s great,” he said. “I know what the expectations are, so let’s go out there and do it. I’ve prepared this winter to do that.”
  • It sounds like extension talks could soon take place between the Athletics and outfielder Josh Reddick, and GM David Forst said that the team intends to try to find ground for a multi-year deal, as SB Nation’s Jeremy Koo writes. Oakland “will make an effort at” a deal, said Forst. He added that Reedick has “kind of become the face of our team; somewhat the drive and energy of the club.”

Prospect Notes: Dodgers, Cuba, Reed

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The Dodgers’ Triple-A squad made a remarkable 334 transactions last season with 84 different players appearing in a game, writes Bill Plunkett of Baseball America. Director of player development Gabe Kapler implied that the big league club will continue to make frequent use of their minor league rosters as a way to shuffle depth around. Such a strategy can be particularly useful with back-of-the-roster pitching like spot starters and over-taxed young relievers.

  • Cuba’s Ciego De Avila club will represent the island nation in the upcoming Caribbean Series, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The tournament begins on February 1. International tournaments are a commonly used opportunity to defect and join the majors. The most notable players in attendance will be Yulieski Gourriel, his young brother Lourdes Gourriel, and Alfredo Despaigne. Badler calls Yulieski, 31, the top player in Cuba, citing a .494/.586/.861 line in 215 plate appearances. Lourdes better fits the role of prospect – he’s 22 with a .340/.400/.561 slash. Badler calls him one of Cuba’s top five players. Despaigne is the best Cuban slugger. He hit .258/.352/.462 in 409 plate appearances last season for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. While those are the biggest names to watch, there’s no telling which, if any, players will defect.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis has unveiled his first base prospect rankings with the Astros’ A.J. Reed taking the top spot. Reed’s excellent first full season included some truly gaudy stats – 34 home runs, 113 runs, and 127 RBI. Callis notes that he still has to prove he can hit advanced left-handed pitching. Pirates prospect Josh Bell and Mets first baseman Dominic Smith are next up in Callis’ Top 10.
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