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Astros Release Jose Abreu

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The Astros announced Friday that they’ve released first baseman Jose Abreu. The former American League Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM contract. Houston will eat the remainder of the money still owed to Abreu on that deal.

Houston selected the contract of catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel from Triple-A Sugar Land, reports KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander. In 201 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Hummel boasts a .301/.423/.509 slash (135 wRC+) with seven homers, 13 doubles, eight steals (in nine tries), a 17.4% strikeout rate and a massive 16.4% walk rate. The Astros acquired the 29-year-old from the Giants via an April waiver claim and later succeeded in passing him through outright waivers.

While Abreu generally exceeded expectations in landing that sizable three-year deal, few could’ve predicted that the contract would go this poorly. Abreu hit .237/.296/.383 with Houston last season and began the 2024 season in such a calamitous funk that the veteran agreed to be optioned at a point when he was 7-for-71 on the season. Since returning, Abreu hasn’t looked any better, hitting .167/.186/.333 in 43 trips to the plate.

Overall, Abreu’s tenure with the team will come to an end with a shocking .217/.275/.351 batting line in 714 plate appearances. That’s about 28% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. When coupled with below-average defense at first base, Abreu was 1.6 wins below replacement level, per Baseball-Reference, and a full two wins below replacement per FanGraphs.

Although there were some signs of decline in 2022, Abreu still hit .304/.378/.446 that season. A good portion of his power had eroded (hence the pedestrian .141 ISO and career-low 15 homers), and a fair bit of his production was propped up by a .350 average on balls in play that the plodding Abreu was never going to sustain over the long run. The Astros, operating without a general manager for the first portion of the offseason, still paid a hefty per-year price to sign Abreu into his late 30s, with owner Jim Crane spearheading negotiations on that deal and on Rafael Montero’s own surprising three-year pact. Though the length of the pact was a modest surprise, it pales in comparison to how surprising the extent of Abreu’s decline has been.

Between Abreu and Jon Singleton, Houston’s lack of production at first base has been near the bottom of all Major League Baseball. Only the Rockies — Kris Bryant, Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman — have seen their first basemen combine to deliver a lesser output than the Astros’ miserable .181/.262/.291 batting line. That dearth of offense from a typically bat-heavy position in the lineup has been one of many reasons for the Astros’ disappointing 31-38 record. Houston sits eight games back of the division-leading Mariners and six games out in the AL Wild Card hunt (with six teams to leapfrog in order to claim one of those three spots).

Abreu’s contract will now be dead money on the Astros’ payroll both this year and next. It still counts toward the luxury tax as well, even though he’s no longer on the roster. That dead money only further adds to a troubling long-term outlook that raises legitimate questions about the team’s ability to continue putting a perennial contender on the field. Despite their questionable long-term outlook and their 2024 struggles, however, general manager Dana Brown — hired after the signing of Abreu — has insisted that his team will not be a seller and that he expects to operate as a buyer in the run-up to next month’s trade deadline. The Astros reportedly have interest in adding multiple starting pitchers.

As for Abreu himself, he’ll now head to the open market and be able to field interest from other clubs. It’s unlikely that any team will place him directly onto the big league roster in light of his recent struggles, so he’d very likely need to settle for a minor league deal.

Whether Abreu is amenable to that sort of arrangement isn’t clear, but players often want to go out on their own terms rather than be forced from the game they love due to declining performance. Abreu’s willingness to be optioned earlier this season and the constant praise he’s received from teammates both in Chicago and in Houston regarding his work ethic and passion for the game could point a willingness to keep going. Teammates Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena and Kendall Graveman all lauded Abreu’s work ethic last September when discussing his late-season hot streak with Chandler Rome of The Athletic, as well as his impact in the clubhouse. That drive, combined with his sterling clubhouse reputation and outstanding track record in Chicago, could lead to interest on what amounts to a no-risk flier from a team with a need for help at first base and/or against left-handed pitching.

Astros Could Pursue Multiple Starting Pitching Additions

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The Astros are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. Houston has not only made the playoffs in each year since 2016, they’ve won at least one round in every season and picked up a pair of World Series. This year’s squad is seven games under .500 halfway through June, carrying a 31-38 record that has them above only the Angels, A’s and White Sox in the American League.

Houston has a franchise-high payroll and an aging core that has had ample success. They’re uninterested in giving up on 2024. General manager Dana Brown said at the start of the month that he “(didn’t) see any scenario” where the team sells. Brown indicated he expected to add at the deadline despite their current place in the standings. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the team would like to add two starting pitchers before the deadline.

The rotation has been arguably the team’s biggest weakness, so it’s a straightforward target. They’ve been hit hard by injuries that have exposed a lack of upper minors depth. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have yet to make their season debuts after undergoing arm surgeries in 2023. The Astros lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgeries within the past couple weeks. Those procedures were announced after Brown declared that he couldn’t envision selling, but both pitchers were headed for testing at the time. The GM presumably knew that season-ending surgery was at least a realistic possibility.

That leaves Houston with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Verlander are assured of season-long rotation spots so long as they’re healthy. Hunter Brown has righted the ship after a terrible April with a 3.05 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate over his past seven starts. Blanco has a 2.67 ERA while punching out nearly 24% of opponents in 12 outings.

It’s a reasonable front four, particularly if Brown continues pitching like an upper mid-rotation arm. The depth remains perilously thin. Arrighetti has had an up-and-down rookie campaign, allowing 5.33 earned runs per nine over his first 11 MLB starts. His run prevention has improved over the past month. Arrighetti has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. He hasn’t been especially efficient, though, issuing multiple walks in all 11 appearances. The 24-year-old has shown the stuff to miss bats against big league hitters, yet his debut season hasn’t been seamless.

Even if Houston isn’t actively looking to nudge Arrighetti from the starting five, they’d be ill-prepared to handle any other injuries. J.P. France is on the minor league injured list. Eric Lauer has allowed 14 runs in 15 Triple-A innings since signing a minor league deal. Arrighetti was the only upper minors pitching prospect whom most evaluators regarded highly in a thin farm system. Garcia and McCullers could return around the trade deadline. There’s some level of risk with both pitchers finishing rehabs from lengthy absences — particularly McCullers, who has an extended injury history.

It’s not clear how highly the Astros might aim in their search for starting pitching. It’s unlikely they’ll land multiple mid-rotation or better arms, particularly without a ton of top talent to shop from the farm system (and a probable need to acquire first base help). Landing one mid-rotation starter and an innings-eating depth arm could be attainable. It’s debatable whether the Astros should subtract from their minor league pipeline to upgrade the 2024 roster — MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued for Houston to be more amenable to dealing away veterans in a piece for Front Office subscribers this evening — but the front office is clearly still looking for short-term help.

Garrett Crochet could be the prize of this summer’s rotation trade market. The White Sox would need to be blown away to deal him with two more seasons of club control. They’re likelier to trade Erick Fedde, who is under contract through 2025. The Marlins will probably move Jesús Luzardo and could trade one of Trevor Rogers or Braxton Garrett. The likes of Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill could also come available closer to the deadline.

The Astros’ Problematic Long-Term Outlook

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The Astros' recent run of success if one of the most remarkable in MLB history. Yes, what everyone now knows about their 2017 season will taint that legacy for many, but Houston has since won a second World Series, appeared in two more, and made the American League Championship Series every single year since 2017. Trash can jokes will never go out of style for some, but what the Astros have accomplished across multiple GMs and multiple managers in the past seven years is objectively incredible.

As we sit more than 40% of the way through the 2024 season, however, it's becoming increasingly apparent that times could be changing. Houston sits 8.5 games back of the Mariners in the American League West and would also need to leapfrog the defending World Series champion Rangers to get back into the division race. The Wild Card scene isn't all that much better. Houston is 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but with five teams standing between them and that potential playoff berth. The roster has been decimated by injuries.

At least at the moment, 2024 doesn't look to be the Astros' year. However, the bigger problem for the Astros isn't necessarily what lies ahead in the final three and a half months of the current season, but rather what looms beyond that point. Because when I say "times could be changing," I'm not referring to a simple one-year hiatus from their typically deep postseason runs. When it comes to the Astros, they're facing far larger and far more concerning long-term questions.

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MLBTR Podcast: Injured Astros, The Chances Of Bad Teams Rebounding In 2025 And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Astros have lost several players to injury but general manager Dana Brown insists they will be deadline buyers (0:45)
  • With so few teams clearly out of contention, signs are pointing towards a seller’s market at the deadline (7:20)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Out of the five worst teams right now (Athletics, Angels, White Sox, Marlins and Rockies), who most needs to replenish their farm system and who could possibly turn things around by 2025? (11:20)
  • The Guardians need a right-handed right fielder with power. Who is a viable target? (20:40)
  • Will the Marlins to try trade Jesús Luzardo and Jazz Chisholm Jr.? (24:30)
  • Could you see Alex Anthopoulos of the Braves trying to get Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays? (28:35)
  • How active will the Reds be at the deadline? (32:15)
  • Should the Dodgers acquire Javier Báez from the Tigers and move Mookie Betts back to the outfield and/or option Gavin Lux? (35:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Latest On Kyle Tucker

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  • Astros star Kyle Tucker was placed on the 10-day IL earlier this week due to a shin contusion, and he expects to be fully off crutches within the next day or two, Tucker told The Athletic’s Chandler Rome (link to X) and other media.  From there, Tucker expects to restart baseball activities soon after, so he could conceivably be a candidate to be activated next week.  It seems as though Tucker and the Astros dodged a bullet in avoiding a more serious injury, which is a relief considering the MVP-caliber numbers Tucker has posted to date this season.

Astros Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

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11:30pm: Houston will recall Joey Loperfido to take Tucker’s place on the active roster, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (on X). Loperfido debuted earlier this season and hit .333/.381/.436 with a homer in 14 games.

8:36pm: The Astros have placed star outfielder Kyle Tucker on the 10-day injured list with a right shin contusion, tweets Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The move is retroactive to June 4, meaning Tucker could return a week from now. Houston didn’t immediately announce a corresponding roster move or provide a timetable for his return.

Tucker was injured in Monday’s win over the Cardinals. He fouled a ball off his leg and had to be removed from the game. While the two-time All-Star was on crutches postgame, testing didn’t reveal any fractures. That led the Astros to keep him on the active roster for a few days even though he wasn’t healthy enough to play. He evidently needed more time than the team initially hoped, sending him to the shelf.

It’s probably no coincidence that Houston placed Tucker on the IL just before tonight’s game. A team is allowed to backdate an IL stint by up to three days. Tucker had already been out since June 4. If the Astros had waited into the weekend to put him on the shelf, they’d have pushed back his first possible return date.

The injury halts a fantastic start to the season. Tucker has been a superstar for a few years and has taken his game to new heights in 2024. He has already hit 19 homers across 262 plate appearances. He’s running a .266/.395/.584 batting line with 46 walks against 41 strikeouts over 60 games. If healthy, he should coast to a third consecutive All-Star Game and looks on track to beat last year’s fifth-place finish in MVP balloting.

Despite Tucker’s massive numbers, the Astros head into this weekend’s set against the Angels with a 28-35 record. Their efforts to dig out of that hole will be complicated by the loss of their best player for at least a week. Houston plugged Yordan Alvarez into left field tonight against Griffin Canning, freeing the DH spot for Yainer Diaz and getting Victor Caratini into the lineup at catcher. Trey Cabbage is starting in right field for the second consecutive game.

In other injury news, the Astros announced this afternoon that starters Cristian Javier and José Urquidy each underwent Tommy John surgery (X link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Rome had previously reported that Javier would be undergoing TJS on Thursday. Urquidy’s status wasn’t as clear. While the team announced on Wednesday that he was headed for a season-ending elbow procedure, it wasn’t known whether he’d require a full Tommy John or a modified internal brace repair. Both pitchers seem likely to be out past the 2025 All-Star Break. Urquidy, who would be a free agent after ’25, could be non-tendered next winter.

Astros To Select Nick Hernandez

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The Astros announced they have selected right-hander Nick Hernandez to their roster, with left-hander Parker Mushinski optioned in a corresponding move. Righty José Urquidy, who is slated for season-ending surgery, was be transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot. Chandler Rome of The Athletic relayed the moves on X prior to the official announcement (link one and two).

Hernandez, 29, was just acquired from the Padres last night in a cash deal. He had signed a minor league deal with the Friars in January and has been pitching well this year. He tossed 23 2/3 innings for Triple-A El Paso with a 1.90 earned run average, despite the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. He may have benefitted from an 84.5% strand rate and 4% home run to flyball ratio, but he also struck out 34% of batters faced.

The Astros were intrigued enough to send some cash to San Diego and bring Hernandez back to his original organization. The Astros drafted Hernandez back in 2016 but he reached minor league free agency after the 2022 season, eventually pivoting to the Padres.

He’ll now have a chance to improve his small-sample major league stats. He tossed three innings for the Friars last year but allowed four earned runs, leaving him currently sitting on a career ERA of 12.00. He was outrighted off the roster before re-signing on a minor league deal coming into this year.

The Astros essentially had a free roster spot to use with Urquidy set to miss the rest of the year. The same is true of Cristian Javier, as he’s slated to undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow. He’ll eventually be transferred to the 60-day IL as well, giving Houston another roster spot to work with, which could lead to another small deal or waiver claim in the near future.

Jose Urquidy To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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The Astros announced that right-hander Jose Urquidy will undergo elbow surgery, ending his 2024 season. Houston also confirmed that righty Cristian Javier will undergo season-ending elbow surgery, as was first reported yesterday by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. The team didn’t specify the nature of either surgery, though Rome indicated in his original report that Javier will require Tommy John surgery. Urquidy’s surgery is being performed today, so more details will likely be available once it’s completed. Javier is slated to have his procedure performed tomorrow.

Urquidy, 29, opened the season on the injured list with a forearm strain and will now miss the entire campaign. He did pitch a bit in the minor leagues on a rehab assignment last month, but he was lifted from what’ll be his final outing of the year after experiencing renewed pain in his forearm/elbow. The Astros subsequently announced that Urquidy was seeking a second opinion, which is frequently an ominous sign for injured pitchers.

When he’s been healthy enough to take the mound, Urquidy has proven himself to be a reliable rotation cog in Houston. Outside of an ugly 5.29 ERA last year in a season that was plagued by shoulder troubles, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every season of his career, leaving him with a lifetime 3.98 mark in 405 MLB frames. His 19.6% strikeout rate is three percentage points below the league average, but Urquidy has offset that with a terrific 5.8% walk rate in his career. Home runs have been an issue, as is the case  for many shorter righties with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him keep lefties at bay (.203/.255/.364).

Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that Urquidy could be headed for Tommy John surgery — which would be the second such procedure of his career. He previously had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2017. Urquidy has also missed time in both 2021 and 2023 due to shoulder injuries. Whether this new procedure will be a standard Tommy John operation or a newer iteration that includes augmentation from an internal brace remains to be seen.

Either way, if this indeed proves to be a UCL-related surgery, it’s quite possible it’ll end Urquidy’s tenure with the Astros entirely. He’s being paid $3.75MM this season and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Houston would likely need to commit the same salary to Urquidy again for a 2025 season that would be mostly spent on the injured list.

Even if Urquidy were to agree to the maximum 40% pay cut permissible under the arbitration system, that’d still be a notable price to pay for a pitcher who might not make it back until late in the season — if he returns at all. If Urquidy had multiple seasons of club control remaining, the ’Stros might make that concession, but the right-hander is slated to become a free agent following the 2025 campaign anyhow. It’s always possible they’ll come to some kind of agreement on a two-year deal that’s backloaded with most of the salary falling in 2026, but the injury unfortunately renders Urquidy a clear non-tender candidate.

With regard to the 2024 season, the official losses of both Urquidy and Javier is a gut-punch for a floundering Astros club. Houston sits at 28-34, placing them seven games behind the division-leading Mariners and six games back of the third AL Wild Card spot.

Poor starting pitching has been the most prominent reason for Houston’s decline in the AL West. In addition to Urquidy and Javier, the Astros have seen Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez both spend time on the injured list. Right-handers Hunter Brown and J.P. France — the latter now on the minor league IL due to a shoulder injury — have both taken significant steps back in 2024. Rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley have been hit hard (the latter in a single MLB spot start). Even with Ronel Blanco in the midst of a surprise breakout during his age-30 season, the Astros’ collective 4.71 rotation ERA ranks 26th in the majors.

Reinforcements should be on the horizon in the form of righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., though neither pitcher’s return is imminent just yet. Garcia, on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last June, is facing live hitters and could soon head out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’d presumably require several starts before being deemed an option for the MLB rotation, however. McCullers, who had flexor surgery last summer, is a few weeks behind Garcia in his recovery process. In theory, Garcia could be back around the All-Star break, with McCullers not terribly far behind him — but that’s assuming no setbacks. And by that point, it’s also fair to wonder whether the Astros would feel the urgency to rush either pitcher.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said recently that he doesn’t envision any scenario where the Astros end up as trade deadline sellers, but it’s difficult to see how they’d be aggressive buyers if they fall much further back in the standings. There are just under eight weeks for the team to right the ship, and while a course correction is hardly implausible, the current paper-thin rotation depth means Houston will need its rotation to hold things down and perform much better while waiting on Garcia and McCullers.

Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, Brown and Arrighetti will carry on as the starting five for now, but the aforementioned Henley is the only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster. The Astros did sign lefty Eric Lauer to a minor league deal last month, and they could easily open 40-man space for him by putting Javier or Urquidy on the 60-day injured list. But Henley has been tagged for a 5.44 ERA in Triple-A this season, while Lauer was torched for seven runs over three innings in his first start with Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston can ill-afford another injury of note on the big league staff at the moment.

Astros Acquire Nick Hernandez From Padres

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The Astros announced they’ve acquired minor league reliever Nick Hernandez from the Padres (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). San Diego receives cash considerations in return. Hernandez was not on the Padres’ 40-man roster and will not immediately occupy a roster spot in Houston.

It’s a homecoming for the 29-year-old Hernandez in a few respects. He’s a Houston-area native who attended the University of Houston. Hernandez also began his career with the Astros, who selected him in the eighth round of the 2016 draft. The 6’1″ righty played in the organization until 2022, topping out at Triple-A Sugar Land. He qualified for minor league free agency after the ’22 season and signed with San Diego.

Hernandez got to the majors with the Padres last fall. He appeared in two games, allowing four runs in three innings. The Friars outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the start of the winter but circled back on a new minor league contract in January. He has been pitching at Triple-A El Paso, where he’s turned in excellent results.

He owns a 1.90 ERA across 23 2/3 innings despite the difficult pitching environment in the Pacific Coast League. Hernandez has punched out 34% of batters faced and has a near-31% strikeout percentage over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. He has typically issued a few too many free passes, but this season’s 9% walk rate isn’t far from league average. Hernandez has a full slate of options remaining, so the Astros would be able to move him between Houston and Sugar Land if they add him to the 40-man roster.

Cristian Javier To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Astros are losing right-hander Cristian Javier to Tommy John surgery, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. He’ll undergo the procedure on Thursday and will likely be out at least into the second half of the 2025 season.

Javier landed on the 15-day injured list last week after reporting forearm discomfort during a bullpen session between starts. While the team initially expressed optimism he wouldn’t be out for too long, testing has evidently revealed damage to the UCL in his elbow. It’s the second tough blow in as many days for Houston; righty José Urquidy also could be headed for Tommy John after leaving a recent minor league rehab start with forearm discomfort of his own.

Losing Javier is an even more significant development. The 27-year-old has blossomed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past few seasons. He had a breakout year in 2022, working to a 2.54 ERA while striking out almost a third of opposing hitters over 148 2/3 innings. The Astros signed him to a five-year, $64MM extension — a record guarantee for a pitcher with between three and four years of service — headed into the 2023 season.

Javier had a relative down year, allowing 4.56 earned runs per nine with a 23.1% strikeout rate that was only a little better than league average. He stayed healthy and logged 31 regular season starts and a trio of postseason outings. His efforts at a rebound in 2024 were unfortunately wrecked by injury. Javier lost a couple weeks between April and May with what the team called neck discomfort. He returned on May 11 and pitched three times before suffering the elbow injury. His season concludes with a 3.89 ERA over seven starts.

The Astros opened the season without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, each of whom are working back from elbow procedures they underwent in 2023. With Javier and potentially Urquidy joining them, Houston is down four MLB-caliber starters. That has predictably taken a significant toll on the rotation, which looks quite thin beyond Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.

Ronel Blanco has stepped up with a 2.44 ERA over 10 starts after winning the fifth starter job in camp. He’s now an integral piece of the rotation, but he’s 30 years old and entered the year with seven major league starts under his belt. Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti occupy the last two rotation spots. While they each rebounded from terrible performances in April to turn in strong numbers in May, their season lines are still poor. Recent minor league signee Eric Lauer is essentially the only starter with notable MLB experience in the organization at Triple-A. J.P. France is on the minor league IL with a shoulder problem.

Houston’s rotation struggles have been perhaps the biggest factor in their underwhelming 27-34 start. General manager Dana Brown reiterated last night that he anticipated approaching the deadline as a buyer. Whether Brown knew for certain that Javier was headed for surgery isn’t clear, but he was surely aware it was a possibility at that time. The Astros may be one of upwards of a dozen teams that could try to add from a limited pool of starting pitching available this summer.

The Astros can move Javier to the 60-day injured list when they need to create a 40-man roster spot. They must reinstate him over the offseason before putting him back on the IL next spring. The righty is making $7MM this season and will earn a $10MM salary in 2025. He’s under contract for $21MM apiece between 2026-27.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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