Amateur Notes: July 2, Martinez, Sierra, D’Backs, Draft
With the draft in the books, the next July 2 period is just around the corner. Last year saw several teams blow past their spending allocations, incurring two-year bans on $300K+ signings to do so. As the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees go on probation, the Cubs and Rangers are returning to the market. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down this year’s market, with the Cubs joined by the Dodgers and Royals as teams that seem quite likely to dole out enough excess bonus cash to incur the highest possible penalties. The Phillies and Blue Jays could follow those clubs, says Badler, though they may yet be able to add their top targets without taking on a signing ban. Badler discusses several clubs that could be buyers or sellers of international space, with the Twins profiling as a major acquirer or spending capacity and the D’backs looking to get some value back for the bonus availability that they cannot take advantage of.
You’ll want to give that piece a full read. Here are some other worthwhile amateur links:
- Badler discusses the signing situations of BA’s top ten July 2 prospects (non-Cuban edition). He says the Mets are the favorites to land Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez. Though New York probably won’t get Vladimir Guerror Jr., who has long been linked to the Blue Jays, they may instead get Vlad Sr. nephew Gregory Guerrero, another shortstop. Meanwhile, Badler says the Rangers appear set to sign Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras but now seem likely to lose Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to the Dodgers.
- Cuban outfielder Eddie Julio Martinez has drawn a range of reviews, with MLB.com pegging him as the top overall international prospect and Badler expressing considerably more doubt. You can have a look for yourself, at least at some batting practice cuts, with a video courtesy of BA.
- Well-regarded Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra will be represented by Praver-Shapiro Sports Management, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. As Badler recently explained, Sierra will be exempt from international signing restrictions when he becomes eligible to sign, but his Serie Nacional track record has never quite matched his promising pure stuff.
- The Diamondbacks‘ new regime exhibited a notable change in strategy in this year’s draft, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes (Twitter links). After going heavy on high schoolers at the top of last year’s draft, Arizona chose 15 collegiate players in its first 19 picks (including each of its first six selections) this time around. Individual draft dynamics always have an important bearing on a team’s final board, of course, but it is notable that the D’Backs ultimately chose just four high school players out of their forty total draft slots.
- MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists the five teams that had the best drafts. Like other analysts, he places the Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers at the top of that list. Callis also likes what the Rays and Rangers accomplished with their selections.
Draft Notes: Matuella, Rodgers, Harris, Cameron
Scouts do much more than tally stats, of course, but they are not immune from the allure of racking up their own numbers. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes, Marty Lamb of the Dodgers received credit as the lead scout on three of the team’s top five choices, including first-rounder Walker Buehler, a fairly rare achievement. “Part of it is luck,” explains the veteran scout. “They’ve got to fall to the right places, and we’ve got to like them. … It’s fun, but I’m sure some of my buddies [fellow scouts] aren’t too happy with me right now, but it’s part of the game.”
Here’s more from out west:
- Rangers scouting director Kip Fagg, likewise, was pleased with how things turned out Monday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. “I can’t think of a better day that I’ve had in my 24 years of scouting with the Texas Rangers,” he said. “The first four guys we drafted, we had them all in our top 20 on our board. That’s never happened in my career. That made it special.” Texas took righty Dillon Tate with its top pick and also went on to secure the rights to Duke starter Michael Matuella, a high-upside talent who has injury and signability questions. Matuella says he is “very confident” in reaching a deal, with Fagg echoed that sentiment.
- High school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies‘ top selection at third overall, said Monday that he agreed on bonus terms with the club before the draft, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reported. Ink has not yet been put to paper, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets, but it appears that Rodgers will formally reach a deal in fairly short order.
- Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are nearing agreement with first-rounder Jon Harris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. The righty is expected to receive a bonus in line with the slot value of $1,944,800, sources tell Davidi. Toronto has expressed real excitement at having another chance at Harris, who the team failed to sign out of high school after the 2012 draft.
- Astros second-round choice Daz Cameron, a highly-regarded high school outfielder, is asking “less than” the $5MM he was rumored to be seeking, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The consensus is that Cameron fell to Houston because it has the overall spending capacity to sign him, but perhaps the team will not need to go quite as high as had been expected to get a deal done. Daz’s father — long-time big leaguer Mike Cameron — offers plenty of interesting thoughts on his son’s draft experience and the useful “business management” lesson he picked up along the way. It’s an interesting piece and well worth a read.
Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba
The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.
- Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
- Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.
Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis
Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.
Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:
- Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
- The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
- Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
- It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
- Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays‘ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies‘ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins‘ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
- As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.
Minor Moves: Alex White
Here are the minor moves from the day:
- The Astros have released righty Alex White, a former first-round pick (15th overall) of the Indians, according to Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee (via Twitter). Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the now-26-year-old was a significant part of the deal that sent Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland back in 2011. After moving swiftly through the minors with outstanding results in his first two seasons as a pro, White threw 149 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball at the major league level over 2011-12. He has been unable to regain his prior trajectory, struggling in particular with heightened walk tallies.
Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros
With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.
- Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
- Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
- The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!
Astros Designate Matt Dominguez For Assignment
The Astros announced that they have designated third baseman Matt Dominguez for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for top prospect Carlos Correa, whose promotion is now official.
It’s been a swift fall for Dominguez, who just one year ago was rumored to have been offered an extension worth roughly $14.5MM over five years (plus two option years for the Astros). He’s spent the entire season in Triple-A so far after serving as Houston’s regular third baseman for all of 2013-14 and much of the 2012 season as well.
Dominguez’s best season came in 2013 when he batted .241/.286/.403 with 21 homers in 152 games. Despite the lackluster OBP, Dominguez rated out well in terms of Defensive Runs Saved, leading to a 2.2 rWAR season. (Fangraphs’ version of WAR, which uses UZR in its equation, rated him at just shy of one WAR.) Dominguez’s glove has long drawn positive reviews from scouts, and he clearly has some power in his bat, as evidenced by the .168 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) mark that he posted from 2012-13.
Dominguez hit 16 home runs last year, but he saw his walk rate dip even further while his strikeout rate climbed to almost 21 percent. The resulting .215/.256/.330 batting line was enough that the Astros saw fit to acquire Luis Valbuena and sign Jed Lowrie to serve as upgrades on the left side of the infield. So far in Triple, Dominguez is batting .251/.289/.371.
Despite the struggles, Dominguez is still just 25 years of age. The former first-round pick won’t turn 26 until late August, and if a light were to turn on with another club, Dominguez could be controlled through at least the 2018 season. In fact, that number will soon jump to 2019. Dominguez entered the year with two years, 62 days of service, meaning he’d have needed 110 days of service this year to reach the three-year mark. However, there are just 119 days of the regular season remaining, so it seems unlikely that he’ll end up reaching that mark.
Because of his youth, big league track record, remaining remaining minor league options and upside, I’d personally be surprised to see Dominguez clear waivers. More likely, it seems that the Astros may try to trade him to a team in need of some help at the hot corner. The Giants have had some struggles at third base this season, as have the Tigers, White Sox and Brewers. The Indians just demoted Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A, though they may prefer to give Giovanny Urshela a tryout before moving on to other options.
Speculating a bit further, the Angels were said to be seeking a controllable young third baseman this winter, and while they acquired Kyle Kubitza from the Braves to give them an option, it’s at least possible that Dominguez intrigues them. And, in last year’s leak of trade notes from the Astros, the Marlins were said to have expressed interest in a trade for Dominguez, though Miami does have Martin Prado at the position now.
Astros To Promote Vincent Velasquez
The Astros will promote right-handed pitching prospect Vincent Velasquez today, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He will start Wednesday’s game against the White Sox, according to McTaggart.
Velasquez entered the season ranked No. 56 on the Top 100 prospect list of ESPN’s Keith Law. He currently ranks 74th on MLB.com’s list, and he also ranked 75th according to both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and to Baseball Prospectus prior to Opening Day. Suffice it to say, the 2010 second-round pick is regarded as one of the most promising young arms in all of baseball.
Law says that Velasquez has the aresenal of No. 2 starter, including a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a slider that sits 82-84 mph but still needs work, as it tends to flatten out. The consensus on Velasquez is that he may rank higher on all of these lists with a better track record of health. He missed the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery and had a pair of non-arm-related injuries in 2014 that limited him to 63 2/3 innings. McDaniel adds that his arm troubles date back even to his high school days, where he had a stress fracture in his elbow and a ligament strain during his junior year. His 2015 season didn’t begin until May 8, but in five starts at the Double-A, Velasquez has worked to a 1.37 ERA with 37 strikeouts against nine walks in 26 1/3 innings.
For the Astros, Velasquez will be the second highly touted young arm to join their rotation in the past month or so. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., a 2012 first-rounder and Velasquez’s Double-A teammate as recently as four weeks ago, has made a nearly seamless transition to the Majors by tossing 24 innings of 1.88 ERA ball.
The need for reinforcements in Houston’s rotation is palpable. Despite the brilliant season of ace Dallas Keuchel (1.85 ERA in a league-leading 87 2/3 innings) and that excellent effort from McCullers, the Astros have a collective 4.14 ERA from their rotation, which ranks 17th in the Majors. Collin McHugh has yet to rediscover his 2014 breakout form, Scott Feldman had an ERA of 4.80 before going down for about six weeks with knee surgery, and Roberto Hernandez has a 5.18 ERA to show for his 66 innings of work. Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Brad Peacock and Asher Wojciechowski have all made starts as well but have produced a mix of ineffective performances and injuries to this point.
McTaggart writes that Velasquez will be taking Hernandez’s spot in the rotation, so it would seem that the 23-year-old Velasquez (he turned 23 yesterday) has a chance to nail down a permanent rotation spot with an impressive performance. Presently, he’ll join Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers and Oberholtzer in the rotation, though Feldman will be back in about five weeks and presumably step back into the rotation.
Astros Promote Carlos Correa
The Astros have promoted top prospect Carlos Correa, according to a team press release. Correa will join the team tomorrow in Chicago for the start of a three-game series against the White Sox. Righty Jake Buchanan is being optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move, and another move is coming tomorrow to open up a 40-man roster spot.
“Carlos has performed extremely well at every level of our minor league system,” Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said in the release. “We feel he has earned this promotion and look forward to him joining our ballclub. Since he is just 20 years old, we do not have unrealistic expectations of Carlos. However, his performance on the field and his maturity indicate that he is ready to contribute on the Major League level.”
Correa was the first overall pick of the 2012 draft, a slightly controversial pick at the time given that Byron Buxton and Mark Appel were generally considered to be better picks. Houston took Correa in part due to signability reasons, as he inked a below-slot contract and freed up more money for the Astros to spend on other prospects later in the draft. In four pro seasons, however, Correa has made the Astros’ strategy look doubly wise, as he has hit .313/.392/.491 with 28 homers and 54 steals (out of 70 chances) over 1256 minor league plate appearances. Preseason prospect lists saw the 6’4″, 190-pounder ranked as the third-best prospect in the sport by MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law, while Baseball America ranked him fourth.
The 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook describes Correa as “a plus hitter with plus raw power” who 30-homer potential in the big leagues, though he has yet to fully develop enough loft in his swing to fully unleash that pop. One rival evaluator cited by BA compared Correa’s opposite-field hitting ability to that of Albert Pujols, though with less power. Defensively, Correa was praised for almost everything (only his ability to turn double plays was considered average), particularly his “double-plus” throwing arm. Off the field, Correa’s “makeup is off the charts, with a natural ability to lead and a goal-oriented mindset unseen in a player who just turned 20.”
Correa hadn’t even played above the high-A ball level before this season, yet a 1.185 OPS in 133 PA in Double-A quickly earned him another promotion to Triple-A, where he posted a .266/.336/.447 line over 107 PA. While this Triple-A production isn’t quite dominant, Correa still projects as an upgrade for the Astros at shortstop. Jed Lowrie will be out until after the All-Star break following thumb surgery, and Jonathan Villar and Marwin Gonzalez have combined for -0.2 fWAR this season.
Many predicted Correa would reach the majors at some point in 2015, though the Astros’ unexpected stint atop the AL West adds a different dimension to the promotion. Correa will be expected to step in and contribute to a playoff hopeful, rather than the expected scenario of getting his feet wet in the bigs for a team most felt was still at least a season away from contending. As Luhnow noted, the Astros aren’t expecting Correa to immediately become a superstar. In fact, there’s not necessarily any guarantee that Correa will even spend the rest of the season in the majors, should he struggle and Lowrie returns as scheduled. This is just my speculation, but if Correa is playing well when Lowrie gets back, Lowrie could replace Luis Valbuena at third base — Lowrie has appeared in 83 MLB games at third, though he hasn’t played the position since 2011.
From a service time perspective, Correa is likely to fall short of eventually earning Super Two status even if he spends the rest of the year in the majors, based on recent Super Two cutoff points. Houston hasn’t been shy in calling up some of their top minor league prospects, as Lance McCullers, Preston Tucker and Michael Feliz have all made their MLB debuts in 2015.
Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports
Quick Hits: Indians, Correa, Astros, Gee, Reds
Here’s the latest from around the league.
- The Indians aren’t likely to option Jose Ramirez or call up Francisco Lindor, writes Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. As Hoynes puts it, Ramirez often does something to help the team win despite a .184/.252/.245 slash. The club would like to see more from Lindor before considering a promotion. He’s currently hitting .265/.341/.383 at Triple-A. Mike Aviles is stretched thin covering for both Ramirez and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall. The team could promote utility infield Zach Walters, but there’s no guarantee he would be an upgrade. As such, Ramirez will probably continue to play with regularity.
- Astros top prospect Carlos Correa could be promoted as soon as their upcoming series against the White Sox, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. Manager A.J. Hinch spoke with reporters about the importance of being mentally and physically prepared for the majors. With Jed Lowrie sidelined, the club has turned to a combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar. The pair have not performed well. Given Houston’s place atop the AL West, there is some pressure to summon Correa. Since his promotion to Triple-A, he’s hitting a restrained .253/.324/.429 in 102 plate appearances.
- The Astros have the highest bonus pool for the upcoming draft, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Houston can spend $17,289,200 because they have the second and fifth overall picks. GM Jeff Luhnow aims to have the “best yield” of any club. In the past, the Astros signed Correa to an under-slot contract in order to go over-slot for Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz. They attempted to do the same last year with Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix, but Aiken’s failed physical ruined that plan.
- The Mets have scrapped their six-man rotation, and Dillon Gee will move to the bullpen, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN. Gee is unhappy with the move. He believes he’ll have less value to the team and on the trade market as a reliever. He’s owed $5.3MM in 2015 and is club controlled through 2016. The club was using a six-man rotation to limit the workloads of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. New York may also promote Steven Matz at some point. He has a 1.94 ERA with 9.08 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9 in the hitter friendly PCL.
- The next few weeks will decide if the Reds are deadline sellers, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The team is currently 23-31 and seven games back from the second Wild Card slot. If the club continues to scuffle, players like Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Jay Bruce could be shopped. Cueto and Leake are free agents at the end of the season.