Rosenthal On Pavano, A’s, Jays, Astros
As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out, closers Brian Fuentes and Ryan Franklin seem just as shaky as Brad Lidge these days. Rosenthal also covers some hot-stove themed issues. Here are the highlights:
- Carl Pavano, who will earn close to $4MM this year if enough incentives kick in, could sign a one-year deal worth $5-7MM this offseason, according to an MLB executive.
- Cliff Pennington's emergence suggests there's very little chance the A's bring shortstop Orlando Cabrera back after the season.
- Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays wanted pitcher-shortstop Casey Kelly more than any of the prospects the Red Sox apparently offered for Roy Halladay.
- Rosenthal hears that the Astros are likely to hire an experienced manager to permanently replace Cecil Cooper. Former Astro Jeff Bagwell would be a tempting choice, and he would probably consider the job if the Astros were interested, but the team appears more likely to pursue skippers with significant MLB experience.
- The Indians have lost 17 of their last 20 games under Eric Wedge, who will not likely be out of work for long if he gets fired.
Astros Fire Cecil Cooper
The Astros announced the firing of manager Cecil Cooper today. They'll go with Dave Clark to finish out the season. Back in April, the Astros picked up Cooper's 2010 option, but it didn't mean much. The firing rumors have been floating for months; the Astros currently sport a 70-79 record.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dodgers, DeRosa, Cubs, Managers, General Managers
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive right on in…
- Southpaws Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw are likely to start the first two games of the playoffs for the Dodgers, but Kershaw must recover from his dislocated non-throwing shoulder first. The back-to-back lefties would be a big advantage if LA played the lefthanded hitter heavy Phillies. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cardinals, despite being so righty heavy, have the second lowest team OPS (.675) against lefthanded pitchers in the National League.
- Hiroki Kuroda would likely start game three for the Dodgers, followed by either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland. Chad Billinglsey will likely be left out of the rotation.
- The Cards have put their contract extension talks with Mark DeRosa on hold until the offseason, making it more likely that he'll become a free agent. The deal St. Louis originally proposed was less than the three-year, $17.5MM contract Casey Blake received as a free agent last offseason. DeRosa is a year younger now than Blake was then, but the offseason wrist surgery he is scheduled to have makes the situation cloudy.
- The Cubs will be open to "anything and everything" this offseason, including trading Milton Bradley and/or Carlos Zambrano. Anything to improve the club, basically. However, perhaps the only way the Cubs could unload Bradley would be to take on another underachieving, overpaid player in return.
- Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and is owed $54MM over the next three years, but he's still only 28-years-old and still incredibly talented. The free agent market for starting pitching is thin, which may work in Chicago's favor. Big Z might be appealing at the right price.
- Ken Macha will likely remain with the Brewers, but at least four other managers are in danger of being fired. The list starts with Cecil Cooper of the Astros, and also includes Jim Riggleman of the Nationals, Dave Trembley of the Orioles, and Eric Wedge of the Indians.
- Among general managers, Ned Colletti of the Dodgers, Brian Sabean of the Giants, and Dan O'Dowd of the Rockies are all without contracts for next year, and two of them are going to the postseason. The only GM that appears to be in jeopardy of losing his job is J.P. Ricciardi of the Blue Jays.
Odds & Ends: Indians, Delgado, Harper, Matsui
Here's some links to kick off your Saturday…
- Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Indians have requested that MLB run DNA tests on a few international players the team is negotiating with to confirm their identities. The Tribe got burned when 17-year-old shortstop Jose Ozoria turned out to be 20-year-old Wally Branyan last year.
- Michael Baron of MetsBlog.com says that Carlos Delgado hasn't really talked to the Mets' front office about returning next year, but he'd love to come back.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo breaks down the challenges facing Bryce Harper heading into the 2010 Draft.
- The Astros may explore the possibility of Kaz Matsui returning to Japan, according to Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle.
Discussion: Miguel Tejada
Miguel Tejada says he wants to return to Houston next season and that he'll move to third base if that's what the Astros want. Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle raves about Tejada's clubhouse presence and his role as a leader in Houston, but even Justice thinks that cutting ties with him will be a "tough, necessary step."
Tejada makes $13MM in 2009, the final year of a six-year, $72MM deal, but figures to earn significantly less no matter where he plays in 2010. His numbers have declined over the course of the deal, with his 2009 line sitting at .301/.331/.433. Though his offensive production at shortstop is solid, Tejada has struggled defensively, posting a -8.6 UZR/150 this year.
Tejada will turn 36 early next season, and the Astros are expected to spend frugally in the offseason. It seems unlikely that they'll be able to retain the veteran shortstop unless they could sign him at a discount.
How cheap would Tejada's price tag have to be for a multi-year deal to be a good investment for the Astros? Should they instead turn to younger players like shortstop Tommy Manzella and third baseman Chris Johnson, or attempt to lure one of the more affordable free agent shortstops to the NL Central? If Tejada doesn't return to Houston, what team would be the best fit for him?
Tejada Wants To Return To Astros In 2010
Miguel Tejada told Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle that he'd like to re-sign with the Astros when he becomes a free agent after the season. He repeated that he would move to third base if it meant returning to Houston.
"I would love to stay here," Tejada said. "It's a place I feel really comfortable, and I think I could win here."
Justice calls Tejada an "absolute perfect teammate and leader," but his offensive skills are no longer MVP-caliber, or even close. As BP's Christina Kahrl notes at ESPN.com, you can probably expect production in the .290/.325/.420 range next year, with 15 homers and below-average defense. Solid numbers, but not the kind of projection that will have teams lining up to offer Tejada more than the $13MM he made this year.
Perrotto’s Latest: Vazquez, Valverde, DeRosa, Pavano
In today's column over at Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto says nobody has been better at making deadline deals in the previous two seasons than Theo Epstein. I might agree but would love to hear some counter arguments.
As usual, Perrotto has his share of rumors from around the league:
- The Braves need offense and are considering dealing Javier Vazquez to get it.
- Don't expect Jose Valverde to return to Houston next season. He plans to test free agency and will likely find a better paycheck elsewhere.
- The White Sox plan to re-sign Freddy Garcia to be their fifth starter.
- The Cardinals would like to re-sign Mark DeRosa before he reaches free agency at the end of the season.
- The Twins are planning an attempt to re-sign Carl Pavano, also a to-be free agent at season's end.
- If the Nationals can acquire a shortstop in the offseason they would like Cristian Guzman to move to second base.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Pitching, Rays, Padres, DeRosa
Let's see what Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has for us in his latest Full Count video…
- The free agent market for starting pitching doesn't look very enticing, but the trade market could be intriguing. Toronto will almost certainly field offers for Roy Halladay again, the Cubs could trade Carlos Zambrano, and the Braves could deal Javier Vazquez if they decide to keep Tim Hudson.
- The Astros might finally be ready to move ace Roy Oswalt. While he does have a full no-trade clause, Oswalt has told the club in the past that he'd be willing to consider moves to St. Louis, both Chicago teams, Texas, and Atlanta.
- Tampa Bay moved Scott Kazmir when his value was high, so perhaps it's unlikely they'd move B.J. Upton when his value is low. Regardless, many teams covet the elder Upton brother because at his best he's a righty slugger with superior defense in center field. In his place, the Rays could go in-house with Fernando Perez or Desmond Jennings.
- Keep in mind that if Tampa were to trade an outfielder, they might prefer to deal Carl Crawford. Upton is three years away from free agency; Crawford just one.
- The Padres' recent surge has GM Kevin Towers thinking the team could be a surprise contender next year. The question is this: how low will the team's payroll go? The subtraction of Brian Giles would leave the payroll in the mid-$30MM range, but there are some that believe the team will move either Adrian Gonzalez or Heath Bell and get down into the mid-$20MM range. Ownership has yet to give the front office a firm payroll number for 2010.
- The Cardinals want to re-sign Mark DeRosa, but his offseason wrist surgery changes the equation. DeRosa is fully expected to be ready by the start of Spring Training, but he'll come with some risk. If he was fully healthy, he would be nearly as coveted as Chone Figgins, but supply and demand will work in DeRosa's favor because there are very few quality third baseman available. Plus, he can also play a ton of other positions.
Astros Unlikely To Be Significant Players in Free Agency
Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle writes that the Astros are "unlikely to be significant players in free agency this winter." The team is trying to lower payroll and get younger, something signing free agents generally won't accomplish. Justice does say that the club would like to retain relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde, both of whom will be free agents after this year.
Houston started the season with close to a $103MM payroll according to Cot's, but they could shed $17.75MM by letting Miguel Tejada, Mike Hampton, and Darin Erstad walk as free agents. However, a significant chunk of those savings will probably end up being redistributed to Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence, both of whom should receive big raises in arbitration (Pence will likely qualify as a Super Two).
In their effort to incorporate more youth into their lineup, Justice says we could see third baseman Chris Johnson, shortstop Tommy Manzella, second baseman Edwin Maysonet, and catcher Jason Castro in the Opening Day lineup next year. The team will also probably ask reliever Wesley Wright to come to camp next year prepared to compete for a rotation spot.
Odds & Ends: Castillo, Wagner, Pitching
Some links to look through on the day Eric Munson returns to the big leagues…
- Joel Sherman of The NY Post wonders if a Luis Castillo for Jeremy Bonderman or Nate Robertson deal makes sense. Placido Polanco will be a free agent after the season, and both pitchers are expendable to Detroit. Castillo is owed $12MM over the next two years, while Bonderman and Robertson will take in $12.5MM and $10MM, respectively, in the final season of their contracts next year.
- Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets that the best possibilities for Billy Wagner next year are the Braves, Astros, Cubs, Tigers, and maybe even the Nationals.
- In a piece at ESPN, Baseball Prospectus' Shawn Hoffman looks at who could be the best pitching bargains of the offseason. Carl Pavano, Erik Bedard, and John Smoltz might be the best of the lot. You need Insider to read the article, but it comes recommended.