- Former Astros prospect Jayson Schroeder announced his retirement from baseball via his Instagram page (hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Schroeder was the Astros’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft, but he struggled during his brief pro career, posting a 6.95 ERA over 134 2/3 minor league innings. Houston released Schroeder in December.
Astros Rumors
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?
The AL West, despite being home to the reigning World Series champions, figures to be among the more competitive divisions in the sport in 2023. According to the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs, it is the only division with four teams that have a better than 10% chance to win the division title in the coming campaign. All five clubs in the division have seen significant changes to their rosters over the course of the offseason. With Spring Training now in full swing and the heavy-lifting of the offseason largely done at this point, it let’s take a look at the AL West’s five clubs in search of the division’s next champion.
Houston Astros (106-56 in 2022)
En route to their 2022 World Series championship, the Astros had a phenomenal season, with AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander leading the pitching staff while each of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman received MVP votes for their work in the starting lineup. The hitting corps didn’t change very drastically during the offseason, though they did upgrade at first base by replacing departing free agent Yuli Gurriel with longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. The pitching staff saw more significant change, as Verlander departed for New York while Houston was unable to sign a proper replacement for their staff ace over the offseason.
While Houston lost Verlander to free agency this offseason, the rotation still figures to have plenty of capable arms, with Framber Valdez set to take over as the new staff ace while youngster Cristian Javier looks to follow up on a breakout campaign in 2022. Both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have tantalizing upside, though each comes with question marks, and Jose Urquidy can be expected to be a reliable back-end starter for the Astros once again as well. One catalyst for Houston’s rotation could be top prospect Hunter Brown. Brown, who will play this season at age 24, dominated in his big league debut at the end of last season, posting a microscopic 0.89 ERA that was backed by a fantastic 1.98 FIP in 20 1/3 innings of work, though only 12 of those innings came as a starter. The young righty seems to be in prime position to make the Opening Day rotation with McCullers expected to start the season on the shelf.
Seattle Mariners (90-72 in 2022)
The Mariners ended the league’s longest playoff drought last season, earning a wild card berth and advancing to the ALDS before falling to Houston in a 3 game sweep. Seattle looks to improve on that performance in 2023, as the club added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock to the lineup this offseason and expects to get a full season from ace Luis Castillo, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline last year. That said, the club did lose some key players over the offseason as well: Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier departed via free agency while Erik Swanson, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were among the players who departed in the club’s various trades this offseason.
Minimal prospect talent is expected to impact the big league club this season in Seattle, leaving the Mariners to rely on their aforementioned external additions and improvements from their returning players if they are to catch the Astros in the standings. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic should get some run in left field to open the season in order to prove he has returned to form after struggling to this point in his big league career, while Robbie Ray will surely be looking to recapture the magic of his 2021 Cy Young season. Meanwhile, other players such as youngsters Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby as well as breakout catcher Cal Raleigh merely need to repeat their strong 2022 campaigns in order to contribute to a winning Mariners club this season.
Los Angeles Angels (73-89 in 2022)
The 2023 season stands as the last one during which the Angels will have two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani under club control, as he is set to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Given the urgency of the club’s situation, it’s no wonder than GM Perry Minasian was aggressive in his attempts to supplement the roster with quality depth. He appears to have been largely successful in that endeavor, having added Tyler Anderson, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez to the pitching staff while supplementing the lineup with Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. Those pitching deals rebuilt the back of a Halos bullpen that lost Raisel Iglesias in trade to the Braves last offseason while supplementing the rotation with a durable, mid-rotation starter. That being said, the offensive additions were the main attraction of Anaheim’s offseason, as they transformed what has for years amounted to something of a stars and scrubs lineup by providing manager Phil Nevin with the quality depth necessary to weather injuries to the club’s many stars.
Those stars, of course, will remain the focus of the club, as Ohtani and Mike Trout stand as perhaps the two best players in the entire sport while Anthony Rendon will look to live up to his $245MM contract after struggling with injuries in recent years. Still, other players emerged as quality regulars in 2022 as well, including Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. Bounce-back seasons from any of Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, or David Fletcher would improve the club’s depth even more, to say nothing of the possibility that longtime top prospect Jo Adell finally lives up to his potential. Overall, there’s certainly reason to think this might finally be the year that Trout and Ohtani suit up together in the postseason, even though the club enters the season looking up at many of its division rivals in terms of playoff odds.
Texas Rangers (68-94 in 2022)
The Rangers had a second consecutive explosive offseason this winter as they completely transformed their big league rotation by adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi as starting options while retaining Martin Perez. The hitting corps stayed largely the same after Corey Seager and Marcus Semien joined the club last offseason, though Texas did add Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix and expects to get contributions from top prospect Josh Jung this year at third base.
With a solid bullpen that features Brock Burke, Jose LeClerc, and new addition Will Smith among its back-end options, the Rangers figure to be set up well in that regard. The lineup should be decent, if not awe-inspiring, as it Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia in addition to Seager and Semien, while Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim form an interesting duo behind the plate and Leody Taveras figures to contribute in center upon his return from an oblique strain later this year. The answer to just how far this Rangers club will be able to go surely lies in the health and production of the reconstructed rotation, which added the most dominant pitcher in baseball in deGrom and plenty of upside in Heaney and Eovaldi, though all three pitchers have struggled badly with injuries at various points throughout their careers. Should that front three remain healthy and effective, though, this Rangers team could certainly pitch its way into the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Oakland Athletics (60-102 in 2022)
The A’s were among the worst teams in baseball last season, and there’s little reason for fans in Oakland to have more optimism about the coming campaign. After sending Frankie Montas to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the A’s saw the departures of catcher Sean Murphy, starter Cole Irvin, and reliever A.J. Puk in trades this offseason while the club added young, unproven talent such as Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Kyle Muller, and Freddy Tarnok. Some quality players do remain on the roster, however, as the A’s have retained each of Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers, Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp, and Seth Brown to this point.
Oakland also added a few veteran options in free agency during the offseason, picking up Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguiler, and Trevor May throughout the offseason. The highlight of the A’s offseason seems to be Shintaro Fujinami, who was posted to the MLB this offseason by the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. Fujinami has tantalizing stuff, including a fastball that can touch over 100 mph, but has struggled with his control throughout his career. Even if the A’s are able to unlock Fujinami’s potential, however, it seems extremely unlikely that the club will be able to compete with the four clubs its looking up at in the AL West.
_______________________________
While the Astros, as the reigning champions of not only the AL West but MLB itself, appear to be the favorite entering the 2023 season, each of the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers have plausible paths to not only contention but, perhaps, even the AL West crown headed into 2023. Though the same can’t be said for the Athletics, a four-team division race is sure to bring about excitement in the division all throughout the year.
What do you think? Will the Astros recapture the AL West crown for the sixth straight full season? Will the Mariners take another step forward and win their first AL West title since 2001? Will the Angels or Rangers leapfrog their competitors after a big offseason? Or will the Athletics surprise the baseball world against all odds? Let us know in the poll below.
Lance McCullers Jr. Playing Catch, Yordan Alvarez Hitting
Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. began playing catch yesterday, and threw 30 times per reporters including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome. In addition, Rome also notes that slugger Yordan Alvarez hit soft toss today as he builds toward game action after being delayed this spring by hand soreness.
These positive health updates are excellent news for the Astros. Alvarez is among the very best hitters in all of baseball, and any time missed by the slugger would surely be a massive blow to the Astros offense as they attempt to win a second straight World Series following their 2022 championship run. McCullers, meanwhile, is expected to begin the season on the injured list, but a swift return to action would be a major boon for Houston, which lacks much starting depth beyond unproven prospects and Brandon Bielak, who is currently slated for a long relief role in the big league bullpen.
Brown: Astros Likelier To Explore Extension Talks With Altuve, Bregman Next Offseason
Astros general manager Dana Brown has provided frequent updates throughout Spring Training regarding the club’s extension discussions with a number of players. After Houston got a deal done with Cristian Javier early in the spring, Brown expressed varying levels of optimism about the chances of productive talks with the likes of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.
Over the past few days, however, Brown has cast doubt on any short-term agreements with Tucker or Valdez. He pointed to yesterday afternoon as a loose target date for extensions with either player (though he clarified it wasn’t an official deadline before cutting talks). No deal has materialized, and Brown similarly indicated it’s unlikely there’ll be any forthcoming contracts with Bregman or Altuve.
Speaking with Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, the first-year GM pointed to next offseason as a likelier target for deals with either player. “It’s probably going to be more like next year,” Brown said. “We made it clear that we want to keep them both around. This is part of getting through (2025), getting to (2026), some more time to replenish the system without overhauling the roster.”
While Brown didn’t walk back any comments from earlier in exhibition play, it’s a departure from some of the enthusiasm he’d expressed a few weeks ago. He’d told reporters in mid-February the club was hoping to make both Altuve and Bregman career-long Astros. The GM indicated at the time that he’d said as much to agent Scott Boras, who represents both players.
Of course, putting talks on the back-burner doesn’t rule that out for either player. Both Altuve and Bregman have already signed early-career extensions (two, in the former’s case) and remain under contract for two more years. Altuve will make $26MM in each of the next couple seasons, while Bregman is due $28.5MM annually through 2024.
Altuve is trending towards the open market in advance of his age-35 season. He’s not yet shown any signs of slowing down, as he’s coming off one of the best years of his career. He hit .300/.387/.533 with 28 home runs, a career-best 10.9% walk rate and an excellent 14.4% strikeout percentage in 604 plate appearances. Outside of the 60-game schedule, Altuve has remained one of the sport’s top offensive players.
Bregman is slated to hit free agency headed into his age-31 campaign. His bat has taken a step back from its MVP-caliber level of 2018-19, but he’s remained a well above-average hitter. Bregman is coming off a .259/.366/.454 line with 23 longballs and more walks than strikeouts (13.3% versus 11.7%) through 656 trips to the dish. Few hitters can match that control of the strike zone, and Bregman generally pairs that consistently strong offense with plus defensive marks at third base.
The Astros head into the 2023 campaign with a luxury tax payroll calculated by Roster Resource around $218MM. That’s about $15MM shy of the base threshold. Houston has once paid the CBT, going narrowly above the mark in 2020. They have a little over $100MM in estimated CBT commitments by the 2025 campaign, when new deals for Altuve and/or Bregman would ostensibly begin.
Tucker and Valdez will each be in their final season of arbitration eligibility that year barring extensions. Brown and owner Jim Crane could be faced with some difficult decisions a year or two down the line, though the club is in very strong shape for the immediate future. Of the current roster, only veterans Michael Brantley and Martín Maldonado and relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek are headed towards free agency next winter.
Jesus Alou Passes Away
Former big league outfielder Jesús Alou passed away today at age 80, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN. The Dominican Republic native played parts of 15 seasons in the majors during the 1960’s and 70’s.
Alou was a member of one of baseball history’s most famous families. The younger brother of All-Stars Felipe Alou and Matty Alou, Jesús signed with the Giants headed into 1959. After three-plus seasons in the minors, Alou reached the majors during his age-21 campaign in 1963. That was a 16-game cameo but made history when he joined his brothers in the San Francisco outfield during Jesús Alou’s rookie year. While Felipe would find himself traded to Milwaukee the following offseason, Jesús and Matty Alou spent the next few seasons as teammates in San Francisco.
Jesús Alou saw fairly significant action by his second season. He’d top 100 games every year from 1964-71. Alou played in San Francisco through 1968, hitting .279/.301/.348 in 633 games in a Giant uniform. During the 1968-69 offseason, he went to the Expos as part of the expansion draft. Alou would never play a game in Montreal, however. A couple months after selecting him, the Expos dealt Alou with right-hander Jack Billingham and lefty reliever Skip Guinn to Houston for All-Star outfielder Rusty Staub.
Alou played with the Astros until midway through the 1973 season, when Houston sold his contract to the Athletics. He was a role player for Oakland’s World Series winning clubs in 1973 and ’74. While he only got into 132 combined games in green and gold, he picked up a pair of championship rings. Alou signed with the Mets for the ’75 season and returned to Houston late in the decade in a minor role. He played professionally in Mexico before retiring after the 1980 campaign.
In 1380 career big league contests, Alou hit .280/.305/.353. Never much of a power threat, he only connected on 32 home runs but he tallied 1216 hits and topped the double-digit mark in doubles in eight consecutive seasons. While he never achieved the lofty heights his brothers reached as players, he spent a decade and a half as a major leaguer and won a pair of World Series.
Alou’s baseball career also went well beyond his playing days. He spent some time on the Houston coaching staff and eventually transitioned into scouting roles with the Expos and Red Sox. He’d worked for the Boston organization since 2002 and eventually spent more than six decades in the game. MLBTR sends our condolences to Alou’s family, loved ones, friends and colleagues throughout the sport.
Yordan Alvarez Takes Swings In Batting Cage
Yordan Alvarez’s lingering hand soreness has continued to bother the Astros slugger this spring, yet Alvarez took a noteworthy step today when he hit the batting cage to take some soft-toss swings. Alvarez emerged from the session with no problems, though manager Dusty Baker didn’t give reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) any hints about Alvarez’s next steps. Neither Baker or Astros GM Dana Brown have seemed overly concerned about Alvarez’s injury, and in lieu of any other developments, it would appear as though the ALCS MVP will be in the Astros’ lineup come Opening Day.
Offseason In Review Chat Transcript: Houston Astros
MLBTR is hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with our Offseason In Review series this spring. Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with Anthony Franco regarding the Astros’ entry in this series.
Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions
The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.
Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.
The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.
The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”
Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.
“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”
Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.
Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.
Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.
Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez
The Astros have spent the past few weeks attempting to work out extensions with a number of key players. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez are among those with whom the club has been in contact, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman now casts some doubt on the chances of either player signing this spring.
Astros GM Dana Brown tells Heyman the club expects to know whether anything will transpire within the next 48 hours. Brown frankly tells Heyman the team is “further away (in negotiations) with Tucker” than Valdez but didn’t handicap the odds of getting a deal done with either player.
Teammate Yordan Alvarez represents one potential comparison point in discussions with Tucker, who has between three and four years of service time. The slugger signed a six-year, $115MM deal just last June, agreeing to a fairly rare midseason extension of significance. Alvarez technically was just shy of three years of service at the time of signing but inked a deal that didn’t go into effect until this year. For all intents and purposes, he was essentially in the same service bucket as Tucker now finds himself.
Alvarez is a better hitter than Tucker and one of the best offensive players in baseball. His career wRC+ of 164 trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances. However, he’s also had some knee issues and been mostly limited to designated hitter, with only part-time work in left field. Tucker, by contrast, is an excellent defensive right fielder.
Alvarez’s deal was the second-largest for a player in the 3-4 year service window. The record still belongs to Freddie Freeman, who signed an eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves ahead of the 2014 season. Freeman was a year younger than Tucker is now and coming off a stronger platform season. However, that deal is a decade old at this point and Tucker’s camp could look to beat that pact. However, such a deal would be the longest deal in Astros history and the second richest, with only Jose Altuve’s $151MM guarantee surpassing it.
Brown indicated that Tucker is seeking out a longer-term deal than the Astros have historically given out. For his part, the GM seems to have little interest in breaking that organizational tradition, telling Heyman, “I understand that [avoidance of long-term deals], and I respect that. A lot of those long-term deals, they don’t end well.”
Given this, it’s no surprise that Astros brass seems to feel better about their odds of extending Valdez. The southpaw can also look to a teammate as a direct extension comp. In his case, it’s righty Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM pact last month. That represented the largest guarantee for a starting pitcher with between three and four years of service time.
It’s fair to expect Valdez’s camp would want to top that mark. Javier’s track record pales in comparison to that of Valdez; while both pitchers sport a 3.05 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, Valdez’s 3.34 FIP outshines Javier’s figure of 3.90 while the lefty also has volume on his side. Valdez has thrown 406 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign, more than a hundred ahead of Javier, and his career best 201 1/3 innings in 2022 have the look of a modern-day workhorse. Javier, by contrast, recorded a seventh inning out just twice during the 2022 season.
That’s partially reflected in Valdez’s better earning power in arbitration. He’s set to make $6.8MM for the upcoming season, whereas Javier was headed for a first-year arbitration salary around $3MM. Valdez, as a Super Two qualifier over the 2021-22 offseason, also had an extra season of arbitration eligibility to build that stronger platform salary. That gap would’ve compounded on an annual basis considering arbitration salaries are based in part on a player’s previous-year salary.
Javier, who celebrates his 26th birthday later this month, had youth on his side in signing that extension compared to Valdez. The southpaw is already 29. That perhaps makes Javier a cleaner long-term bet from the team’s perspective, though it also puts more of a premium for Valdez on securing a lofty guarantee if he’s to sign an extension. While Javier will still get to free agency shortly before turning 31, Valdez would be signing away at least his age-32 season (and perhaps beyond) in any deal that buys out free agent seasons.
Both Valdez and Tucker are controllable through the end of the 2025 season, given the club ample time to revisit contract talks in the future, even if no extensions get done in Brown’s proposed 48-hour window. With that being said, Brown could certainly continue attempting to extend the stay of either Alex Bregman or Altuve in Houston once negotiations with Tucker and Valdez have been tabled. Both veterans are set to become free agents following the 2024 season, meaning there will be far more urgency in locking up that pair of players going forward, particularly once the 2023 season has drawn to a close. The GM has already expressed a desire to retain both players, saying he’d like to keep both in Houston for the entirety of their careers.
Offseason In Review: Houston Astros
Within days of winning the World Series, the Astros parted ways with their general manager. They went with an uncertain front office for a few months but made a few early splashes. Things quieted down before Houston brought in their new GM, who has already set out to put his stamp on the organization in Spring Training.
Major League Signings
- 1B José Abreu: Three years, $58.5MM
- RHP Rafael Montero: Three years, $34.5MM
- LF Michael Brantley: One year, $12MM
2023 spending: $43MM
Total spending: $105MM
Option Decisions
- C Martín Maldonado triggered $4.5MM vesting option
- RHP Justin Verlander declined $25MM player option
- Team declined $13MM option on LHP Will Smith in favor of $1MM buyout
- Team declined its end of $10MM mutual option on 1B Trey Mancini in favor of $250K buyout
Trades and Claims
- Claimed 3B Rylan Bannon off waivers from Cubs
- Acquired RF Bligh Madris from Tigers for cash
- Claimed LHP Matt Gage off waivers from Blue Jays
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Signed RHP Cristian Javier to five-year, $64MM deal (extends window of control by two seasons)
Notable Losses
- Verlander, Yuli Gurriel (remains unsigned), Aledmys Díaz, Mancini, Christian Vázquez, Smith, Jason Castro (retired), Josh James (non-tendered)
Even as the Astros were barreling towards the second championship in franchise history, whispers of conflict behind the scenes began to trickle out. Rumors of a strained relationship between general manager James Click and manager Dusty Baker and, to an even greater extent, between Click and owner Jim Crane mounted towards season’s end. Even the team getting to the pinnacle of the sport couldn’t stop the situation from reaching a tipping point.
In the days after the World Series parade, Crane made one-year extension offers to Baker and Click — both of whom had been on expiring deals. The longtime manager accepted and will be back for a fourth season at the helm. Click, on the other hand, rejected an offer he and many throughout the industry considered below standard for an executive whose team had just won a championship. Crane responded by dismissing him, setting the stage for an almost unprecedented GM search on the heels of a title.
While the front office uncertainty loomed over much of the offseason, Crane consistently maintained he didn’t view it as a pressing hole to plug. The owner himself stepped further into day-to-day baseball operations with help from assistant GMs Andrew Ball and Bill Firkus and from longtime Houston first baseman Jeff Bagwell. The Astros faced some immediate roster decisions as a handful of key players were headed to the open market.
Houston struck early with one of their top free agents. During the five-day window between the end of the World Series and the official start of free agency — a time when clubs have exclusive negotiating rights with their own players — the Astros kept reliever Rafael Montero off the market on a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The righty was coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.37 ERA with above-average strikeout and grounder numbers. He’d been a crucial piece of an excellent relief corps. Retaining Montero kept the group mostly intact, although Houston did buy out deadline pickup Will Smith and allow him to join the Rangers.
Even with Montero returning, Houston faced the potential departures of a handful of key players from last year’s club. None loomed larger than the defending Cy Young award winner. Justin Verlander had returned from a Tommy John surgery to throw 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball during his age-39 season. He has shown no signs of slowing down with age and/or injury and made the obvious decision to decline a $25MM player option for the upcoming campaign.
Houston and Verlander were in contact early in the winter. Crane even went on record to indicate Verlander was seeking a deal that approached the three years and $130MM that Max Scherzer had received from the Mets the previous offseason. Yet reports suggested Houston wasn’t prepared to go to those lengths for a pitcher who’d turn 40 before Opening Day. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggested the Astros were offering between $60MM and $70MM over two seasons.
The market also valued Verlander at two years but at a loftier annual price. Verlander ended up reuniting with Scherzer in Queens, matching his record $43.333MM average annual value over two seasons. The total guarantee checked in around $86.667MM, quite a bit higher than Houston’s reported offer. After four and a half seasons, Verlander moved on. The Astros never seemed to seriously consider replacing him, instead moving everyone else in a still strong rotation up a peg.
Beyond Verlander, Houston also saw Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and deadline acquisitions Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini hit the open market. Not coincidentally, Houston was rumored to be in the market for players at first base, catcher and in left field. Initial reports suggested the Astros were targeting Anthony Rizzo to replace Gurriel. When Rizzo promptly re-signed with the Yankees, Houston pivoted to arguably the top first baseman available in free agency.
The Astros made José Abreu their biggest external addition of the winter. The 2020 AL MVP inked a three-year, $58.5MM deal in late November. There’s risk in buying the age 36 through 38 campaigns for a player who is limited to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but Abreu should bring quite a bit more offensive punch than Gurriel provided in a down 2022 season. A career .292/.354/.506 hitter, Abreu posted a .304/.378/.446 line with 15 home runs in 157 games during his final year with the White Sox.
To address left field, Houston checked in on such players as Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. Rather than splurge on either, they ultimately circled back to Brantley as their lefty-swinging left field/designated hitter option. Coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and headed into his age-36 campaign, Brantley was limited to a one-year deal. Yet he still secured $12MM on the strength of offensive production that remains excellent when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Brantley walked more than he struck out over 277 plate appearances last season, hitting .288/.370/.416 with five homers and 14 doubles.
The trio of Montero, Abreu and Brantley ended up comprising all of Houston’s major league free agent acquisitions. Their catcher pursuit came up short. Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer to top free agent backstop Willson Contreras but saw the longtime Cub instead join the Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5MM deal. The gap between Contreras and any other free agent catcher was massive, and Houston ultimately decided to roll with their internal options after missing out on the one catcher who could’ve added another middle-of-the-order presence. While the Astros were at least loosely tied to lower-tier veterans like Tucker Barnhart, they’re going to move forward with Martín Maldonado for another season.
Houston acquired Vázquez last summer as a veteran backup to Maldonado but allowed him to depart in free agency. With Jason Castro retiring, Houston seems set to turn to a less experienced option as Maldonado’s #2. Former first-round draftee Korey Lee is a strong defender with some power but significant strikeout concerns. Yainer Díaz had a breakout 2022 showing in the upper minors and brings the opposite profile: an advanced bat but questions about his defense. They’ll battle for the backup job and potentially for longer-term run as the organization’s catcher of the future, since the 36-year-old Maldonado will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign.
The rest of the position player group is straightforward. Abreu will man first base. Jose Altuve is back at second, with Jeremy Peña having secured shortstop behind an excellent rookie season. Alex Bregman returns to solidify the hot corner. Brantley, when healthy, will split his time between left field and designated hitter. Yordan Alvarez will do the same, with the club aiming to get their star slugger a little more defensive work than he’s logged in years past. Kyle Tucker is one of the sport’s best right fielders on both sides of the ball.
To the extent there’s a position battle, it looks like it’d be in center field. Chas McCormick has consistently produced over his first two big league campaigns, though the organization has seemed reluctant to anoint him their long-term center fielder. McCormick should have a leg up on the job after playing well during the club’s postseason run. Baker has suggested this spring that Jake Meyers is still in the mix, though, and utilityman Mauricio Dubón could garner some consideration as well.
Dubón is out of minor league option years and figures to be on the MLB roster as a depth player. He and rookie David Hensley could take on some utility responsibilities after Houston lost Aledmys Díaz to free agency. The Astros also brought in infielder Rylan Bannon on a waiver claim from the Cubs. Their only trade of the offseason was the acquisition of depth corner outfielder Bligh Madris from the Tigers for cash.
Houston did even less to augment the pitching staff, showing plenty of faith in their in-house options. With Verlander gone, Framber Valdez assumes the role of staff ace. He’s followed by Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy. A healthy Lance McCullers Jr. would be in the mix but he’s not going to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a muscle strain in his right arm. That pushes top prospect Hunter Brown into the rotation. It’s still a strong top five but the depth behind that group is a little thinner than it has been in recent seasons.
There are no such concerns about a bullpen that again looks to be one of the league’s best. Montero returns to join Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Bryan Abreu among the bridges to closer Ryan Pressly. It’s a group that skews right-handed, but that has been the case for a few seasons and the Astros have been no worse for wear. Houston added southpaw Matt Gage off release waivers from Toronto to compete with the likes of Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski in that regard. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Astros ran out all right-handed bullpens at points.
After an initial flurry of activity early in the winter, Houston was mostly quiet from December onwards. While their work with the roster faded into the background, the organization took a few months to put their new leadership structure in place. At the end of January, they finalized a deal to bring in Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager.
Brown is a first-time GM but has played an integral part in building the core of an Atlanta team that won the World Series two seasons ago. He hasn’t had a chance to put his stamp on the roster with any external pickups considering he was hired after the free agent and trade markets were all but finished. Yet he’s already shown one aspect that could help define the next few seasons of Astros baseball: an affinity for contract extensions.
Since taking the helm, Brown has gone on record about a desire to sign players like Tucker, Valdez, Altuve and Bregman to long-term deals. No organization has been as successful at locking up key players in recent years than the Braves, and it’s clearly a philosophy he’ll attempt to bring to Houston. He’s already hammered out one long-term deal, signing Javier to a $64MM guarantee to buy out his three arbitration seasons and two would-be free agent years. Javier secured the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and four years of service and didn’t need to tack on any below-market club options at the back end. It was a strong contract for the electric young righty, one that hints at the kind of aggressiveness which could define future extension talks.
It stands to reason the front office will spend the rest of Spring Training trying to get another deal(s) like that done. Even if nothing comes to fruition, the Astros remain as well-positioned for success over the coming seasons as any team in the game. Brantley, Maldonado, Stanek and Maton are the only players set to reach free agency at the end of the ’23 campaign. While those are valuable contributors, Houston isn’t at risk of losing any of their true star performers until Altuve and Bregman hit the market over the 2024-25 offseason.
The Astros have had a remarkable past few years, advancing at least as far as the American League Championship Series in six consecutive seasons. They’ve done so despite a decent amount of roster turnover, with only Altuve, Bregman and McCullers remaining from the 2017 World Series team. (Gurriel is still unsigned and could theoretically return, although Brown has implied the club doesn’t feel they have the playing time to offer him.)
Tucker, Peña, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier and Garcia will be around for at least three more seasons. Even as teams like the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers improve, the competitive window in Houston remains wide open. The Astros again look like the favorites in the AL West and will try to become the first repeat World Series winners since the late-’90s Yankees. Legitimate championship aspirations aren’t going away anytime soon.
In conjunction with the Astros’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 9. Click here to view the transcript.
