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The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

Brown Discusses Tucker, Valdez Extensions, Brantley Injury

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Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on his efforts to extend members of the club’s core while speaking on a radio broadcast this afternoon, as noted by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Brown acknowledged that the club is in extension negotiations with Casey Close, the agent of Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker, saying, “We’re optimistic. We think we can get something done.” while also acknowledging that any contract discussions would likely be tabled if a deal was not in place by Opening Day. Brown also mentioned that the club has begun discussions with left-hander Framber Valdez and his agent about a potential extension, as well.

Brown has been unusually candid publicly about his efforts to extend several members of the Astros core, having made public comments regarding a desire to extend not only Tucker and Valdez but also Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Cristian Javier. Of that group, only Javier has inked an extension thus far, though Altuve and Bregman are both under club control for the next two seasons, while Tucker and Valdez aren’t expected to hit free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.

Brown’s front office will certainly have the financial resources to get extensions done, as the club’s payroll situation leaves Houston plenty of room to maneuver. RosterResource pegs the club’s 2024 luxury tax commitments at just under $159.5MM, and though that figure does not include salaries due to arbitration-eligible players, even a significant raise on the $23.2MM the Astros spent in arbitration this year would leave them with plenty of room under their expected 2023 payroll, which stands at just under $218MM for luxury tax purposes.

  • Sticking the the Astros, Brown also provided a health update on left fielder Michael Brantley that Rome also relayed. According to Brown, Brantley is still working his way back from the shoulder surgery that ended his season last summer, and while the expectation to this point had been that he would be ready for Opening Day, Brown has softened that expectation, now saying Brantley will be ready “a week into the season at the worst.” If Brantley does miss regular season time, Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, and David Hensley are among those who could benefit.

Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat Hosted By Former MLB Reliever Chuckie Fick

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Chuckie Fick worked as a reliever at Fresno State, transferring to California State University, Northridge after one season there.  He served as a starter for the Matadors and was drafted in the 15th round by the Cardinals in 2007.  Chuckie had ties to the organization, as the son of longtime Cardinals scout Chuck Fick.  He’s also the nephew of Robert Fick, the former Tigers All-Star.

Chuckie Fick worked his way through the Cardinals’ minor league system, getting a chance to start in 2008-09 before moving to the bullpen permanently.  He broke into the Majors in May of 2012, debuting at age 26 at Busch Stadium and tossing a scoreless inning against Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies.  He pitched for the Cardinals the following day as well, but that would be his last appearance for the organization.  Fick was designated for assignment in July of 2012, and was then claimed off waivers by the Astros.

Fick had ties to the Astros organization as well at that point, having been drafted as a Cardinal by Houston’s new GM, Jeff Luhnow.  As Chuckie explained in an interview with Eric Treuden of Call to the Pen last year, he’d known Luhnow for years due to the connection through Fick’s father.  Having recently traded Brett Myers, the Astros were in need of bullpen help.

Fick made 18 appearances for the Astros in 2012, posting a 4.30 ERA.  The club removed him from their 40-man roster in November.  Fick spent 2013 with the Astros’ and Rockies’ Triple-A affiliates.  He’d go on to pitch in the Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, and the Atlantic League.  Though his MLB career lasted only 24 2/3 innings, Fick still managed to punch out stars such as Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Holliday, and Jonathan Lucroy.

After retiring, Fick explained to Treuden, “I had opportunities to go play again, but after 2013, I felt like a mercenary, and I never knew when or where my next paycheck was going to come from. I never identified as a ’baseball player.’ It was my job and not my identity, so to not play anymore was not a big emotional decision for me. For the amount of attention I garnered out of high school, college, and even while in pro ball, I consider my career a success. I patted myself on the back, called my agent and told him I was done. Two days later, I hopped on a flight to Nicaragua to go surfing, and the rest is history.”

Now 37 years old, Fick works in insurance with Gallagher Global.  He also serves as a pitching coach for the SoCal Giants, a baseball program run by his father.  You can follow Chuckie on Twitter @chuckiefick.  We were happy to welcome Chuckie for a live chat, wherein he shared some memories from his career, talked about his experiences teaming with All-Stars like Yadier Molina and Jose Altuve, recalled his lone professional hit and touched on the transition from active player into the next phase of his life.  Click here to read the transcript!

AL Notes: Miranda, Biggio, Dirden

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Twins third baseman José Miranda has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic due to shoulder soreness, reports Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. He was set to play for Puerto Rico in the upcoming tournament but will instead stick in camp with the Twins.

Manager Rocco Baldelli spoke with members of the media about the issue today, with Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relaying some pertinent quotes (Twitter links). It seems the main issue is throwing, as Miranda is still able to hit and will be serving as the designated hitter in some upcoming games. “We’re still quite hopeful that he’s going to be ready to go Opening Day, but he’s not throwing right now,” Baldelli said. “We don’t have larger concerns or long-term concerns. We think he’s going to be OK, but he needs some time.”

It doesn’t seem like Miranda is in danger of an extended absence since he can still serve as the DH, but if he can’t take the field, the club will have to think about who will play third base until Miranda is ready to go. This offseason, the Twins traded away Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, clearing out their corner infield spots for players like Miranda and Alex Kirilloff. Without Miranda, the hot corner could potentially be manned by Kyle Farmer or Donovan Solano.

Some other notes from around the American League…

  • Cavan Biggio has primarily been an infielder for the Blue Jays but could spend significant time in the outfield this season. Manager John Schneider tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com he expects Biggio to play “a ton” of outfield this year, perhaps as much as a 50-50 split with his infield work. Biggio has 383 innings of outfield work on his résumé thus far, significantly less than the over 2,000 innings he’s split between second base, third base and first base. Whit Merrifield, acquired at the trade deadline this year, seemed to take over as the club’s primary option at second base after coming aboard. With Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the corners and players like Santiago Espinal and Addison Barger competing for bench jobs, it’s possible Biggio’s best path to playing time is on the grass/turf. The regular outfield in Toronto should consist of George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, but Biggio could perhaps serve as the fourth outfielder if Merrifield, who also plays the outfield, is sticking at the keystone. Biggio hit .240/.368/.430 in his first two seasons for a 118 wRC+ but has dealt with back injuries in the past two, leading to a diminished line of .213/.320/.353, wRC+ of 90.
  • Astros outfielder Justin Dirden is impressing in camp and could potentially nab a roster spot at the end of spring. “Who knows? We’ll see who’s injured, who’s not, who’s playing well and what we need. Everyone is getting about the same shot to impress us,” manager Dusty Baker tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. “I’m impressed with him. We’re impressed with him. That’s why he’s here. He’s getting a lot of playing time, a lot of looks, and he’s playing well. He’s playing very well.” It’s been quite a journey for Dirden, 25, who was not selected in the shortened 2020 draft and signed with the Astros afterwards as an undrafted free agent. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball since that time, including a .274/.397/.537 line in 2021 between Class-A and High-A. Last year, he got bumped to Double-A and hit 20 home runs in 92 games, slashing .324/.411/.616 for a wRC+ of 157. He got a late-season promotion to Triple-A and struggled but is now turning heads in Grapefruit League games. His ability to play center field gives him a chance to compete with Jake Meyers for a backup outfielder job behind Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Those four are expected to take up the three outfield jobs and designated hitter slot, but an injury could always open up a path for both Meyers and Dirden to make the team. Brantley is making his way back from last year’s shoulder surgery while Alvarez is dealing with continued hand soreness.

Yordan Alvarez To Begin Playing In Games Next Month; Expected To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Astros GM Dana Brown discussed star slugger Yordan Alvarez’s health during an appearance on an ESPN game broadcast today, telling ESPN broadcasters that “He should definitely be back for Opening Day. His hands were a little sore. He had some of that last year, but we feel totally confident that he’ll be in games somewhere midway through (Spring Training). But he’s already feeling a lot better.”

The news that Alvarez should be ready for opening day is surely a relief for Astros fans, as the slugger is among the most important players in the star-studded Astros lineup that took home a World Series championship in 2022. Alvarez hit an astonishing .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 135 games last season. By measure of wRC+, Alvarez was 85% better than the league average hitter in 2022, a fantastic figure only topped by reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge last year.

As Brown mentioned, Alvarez dealt with hand issues throughout the 2022 season, going on the injured list in July and missing time with the issue occasionally throughout the season. Those issues clearly did not hamper his production in 2022, so the fact that Alvarez is not expected to miss time to open the regular season is an encouraging development as he looks to follow up on a season that cemented him among the best hitters in the entire sport and the Astros look to hold off the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers in an AL West that should see all four clubs vying for playoff spots this season. That being said, the situation will remain one to keep an eye on until Alvarez returns to game action, as he’s currently slated to do next month.

Blue Jays Hire James Click As Vice President Of Baseball Strategy

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The Blue Jays announced Monday morning that former Astros general manager James Click has been hired as their new vice president of baseball strategy.

In Click’s new role, he’ll work “closely with general manager Ross Atkins and department heads on strategic planning, decision making, and evaluation.” Click will also “work across both professional and amateur levels to identify best practices, develop plans, and implement strategies.”

The Astros rather surprisingly moved on from Click just weeks after winning the 2022 World Series. Reports of mounting friction between Click and team owner Jim Crane began to surface late in the 2022 regular season, and upon conclusion of the postseason, Crane put forth a one-year extension offer that was generally viewed as a token offer that never stood a chance of being accepted. Houston spent most of the offseason operating without a general manager before hiring now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown to fill that vacancy in January.

There’s been little doubt that Click would land on his feet with another club. His three-year stint as the general manager in Houston resulted in three playoff berths, after all, two of which (2021-22) saw the ’Stros take home the American League pennant. While it’s only fair to acknowledge that the prior front office regime, headed by Jeff Luhnow, laid the groundwork for a good deal of that success with acquisitions/signings of stars like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and others, Click oversaw trades acquiring Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero, signed free agents like Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek, and was in the GM seat for extensions of both Ryan Pressly and Alvarez.

Prior to his that three-year run with Houston, Click spent 15 years in the Rays organization. The Yale graduate first joined Tampa Bay as a baseball operations coordinator back in 2006 and slowly made his way up the organizational ladder, spending time with most departments along the way before eventually being tapped the Rays’ vice president of baseball operations in 2017. He held that post for three years before being hired away by Houston in the fallout from MLB’s investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

The Blue Jays didn’t specify a length on Click’s contract, though it stands to reason that regardless of contract length, he’ll again emerge as a candidate for teams seeking either a general manager or president of baseball operations in the future. It’s a relatively similar situation to the one that brought Ben Cherington to the Jays for a few years. Cherington, the former Red Sox GM, was hired as a vice president of baseball operations in Toronto back in 2016, less than a year removed from being ousted in Boston. He held that post through the fall of 2019, when the Pirates hired Cherington as their new general manager.

Any future GM/president appointments for Click will obviously depend on his own appetite for returning to a position with baseball autonomy and the slate of candidates he finds himself interviewing against, but at the very least there will surely be interest in a 45-year-old exec with 15 years of experience in one of the game’s model baseball ops departments (Tampa Bay) and a three-year run in Houston that included three playoff berths, two World Series appearances and a World Series championship.

Warner Bros. Discovery Planning To Leave RSN Business

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Warner Bros. Discovery, the owner of AT&T SportsNet and a minority shareholder of Root Sports, has informed teams it’ll cease participating in the regional sports network business, according to reports from John Ourand of Sports Business Journal and Joe Flint of the Wall Street Journal. WBD has local broadcasting agreements with a handful of teams in MLB, the NBA and the NHL.

The MLB teams affected are the Rockies, Astros and Pirates. The Mariners also have a relationship with Warner Bros. Discovery; Ourand writes the Mariners own 60% of their Root Sports Seattle venture, with WBD owning the other 40%. However, Flint reports the Seattle regional sports network is not part of WBD’s ongoing proceedings.

Ourand writes that the channel has informed teams they’ll have until March 31 to reach an agreement to reclaim their broadcasting rights from the RSN’s; if no deal is agreed upon, the networks are expected to liquidate via Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Flint quotes from WBD’s letter, which told clubs “the business will not have sufficient cash to pay the upcoming rights fees” and proposed for teams to retake ownership of broadcasting rights for no purchase price beyond a relinquishing of civil claims against the networks.

Colorado, Houston and Pittsburgh join the list of nearly half the teams facing some uncertainty about the potential bankruptcy of the Diamond Sports Group that operates the Bally networks. Diamond, which is responsible for broadcasts of 14 clubs, missed an interest payment to creditors last week and is evaluating whether it’ll be able to abide by its own broadcasting deals.

The difficulties facing both conglomerates come in response to declining rates of cable ownership. Cord-cutting has increased significantly over the past few years and is expected to continue given the rise of streaming alternatives. Warner Bros. Discovery provided a generic statement to Ourand alluding to financial problems: “AT&T SportsNet is not immune to the well-known challenges that the entire RSN industry is facing. We will continue to engage in private conversations with our partners as we seek to identify reasonable and constructive solutions.”

The franchises’ next steps are unclear. Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters last week the league would be in position to take over in-market broadcasts, if necessary, from the Diamond-operated networks. That’s presumably also true of the three clubs affected by WBD’s decision. There’s no indication fans in those markets should be concerned about forthcoming blackouts because of the RSN collapse. Ourand reports that WBD informed clubs it’d allow them to use the same production staff/equipment of the current agreement if those teams agree to reclaim their broadcast rights.

Nevertheless, events of the past few weeks have highlighted questions about the long-term viability of the regional sports network setup. WBD’s withdrawal from RSN’s affects only one-tenth of MLB teams, but the ongoing Diamond uncertainty could put many more in a difficult position over the coming weeks.

AL West Notes: Brown, Whitley, Astros, Pache

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It was reported yesterday that the Astros would start the season without Lance McCullers Jr. in the rotation, since he’s out with an injury to his throwing arm. The club will still have a strong front four in Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, and it was assumed by most observers that Hunter Brown would now step into the fifth slot.

“It’s consensus in the organization that Hunter Brown has a chance to be big-time for us,” general manager Dana Brown told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. “I think he knows it and feels it. When I saw him throw, I was like, ‘This guy has electric stuff.’ The ball is coming out really good. There’s a comfort with Brown that, hey, Brown could take a step and really log some innings this year.”

The general manager didn’t go so far as to crown the young pitcher as winning the job, but it seems like he’s the frontrunner at the moment. That’s fairly logical given the strong season he had last year. He tossed 106 innings in Triple-A, both starting and in multi-inning relief stints, with a 2.55 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. He was also able to make his major league debut, posting a 0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 innings over seven appearances.

Other options on the 40-man include Brandon Bielak, J.P. France and Forrest Whitley. “We’re hoping Whitley takes a jump this year,” Dana Brown said. “It’s time for Whitley.” Whitley, 25, was once one of the most highly-regarded young players in the game, with Baseball America ranking him the #5 prospect in the league in 2019. Unfortunately, he still hasn’t made his major league debut due to various factors, the most prominent being injuries such as 2021 Tommy John surgery. He was able to return to health last year and toss 40 innings in the minors but with a 6.52 ERA in that time. He’ll look to get back on track this season to the form he showed in 2018 when he posted a 3.76 ERA in Double-A at the age of 20. He still has an option remaining and can be kept in the minors until he proves himself ready.

Of course, the Astros could always add a player from outside the organization, but it doesn’t seem like anything is imminent. “I’m not in the panic mode, but I also will keep my eyes open because I’m always looking for depth,” Dana Brown said.

Other notes from the American League West…

  • Sticking with the Astros and their rotation depth, Rome asked manager Dusty Baker about the situation today. “You got to ask the powers that be,” Baker said. “I got the power, but not the authority. That was always a consideration for me … we didn’t have a general manager in place in order to make that move.” That last comment is a reference to the fact that the club surprisingly parted ways with now-former general manager James Click in November and operated with that job vacant until Brown was hired in late January. It’s not true that the empty position prevented the club from making any moves whatsoever, as owner Jim Crane took an active role in baseball operations alongside some assistant general managers. Between Click’s dismissal and Brown’s hiring, the club signed José Abreu, re-signed Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley, in addition to various minor league deals and waiver claims. Still, it’s possible that the front office was a bit short-handed while transitioning to a period without Click and assistant GM Scott Powers. It’s not too late to add pitching depth, as the club could still make a trade or reach out to free agents like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy or Aníbal Sánchez.
  • The Athletics will have a tough choice to make at the end of spring since outfielder Cristian Pache is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. The prospect hype on him was strong enough that he got to #7 on BA’s top 100 in 2021, though his bat hasn’t developed to match his strong defense. Traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal about a year ago, he hit a paltry .166/.218/.241 last season. His 35 wRC+ indicates he was 65% below league average, the lowest such mark in the majors last year among those with at least 250 plate appearances. “For Pache, he’s in a difficult situation,” manager Mark Kotsay tells Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. “Not only is he competing for a roster spot here, but he’s going to showcase himself for 29 other teams. So it’s an important spring for Pache, no question, from an individual standpoint, for his career going forward.” The club has collected many outfielders in its recent deals and currently has a mix that includes Seth Brown, Ramón Laureano, Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Conner Capel, Brent Rooker, Cal Stevenson and others. Many of those players can be optioned to the minors but Kawahara suggests that Pache’s lack of options might not be enough to get him a roster spot.

Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Be Ready For Start Of Season

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Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. told reporters Wednesday that a recent MRI on his ailing right arm revealed a “small muscle strain” and that being ready for opening day is “out of the question” (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). McCullers added that there’s no structural damage in his arm and that his ulnar collateral ligament is undamaged. He’ll still be shut down for multiple weeks, which makes a season-opening stint on the injured list seem likely.

It’s another unfortunate health setback for the 29-year-old McCullers, who was limited to eight starts during the regular season, plus another three in the postseason. That lengthy absence was due to a forearm strain dating back to the 2021 American League Division Series. The 2022 season marked the second time in four years that McCullers missed substantial time due to an arm injury; he missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in Nov. 2018.

Recent health woes notwithstanding, McCullers is one of the Astros’ most talented starters, evidenced by four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons with consistently above-average strikeout rates and premium ground-ball rates. Over his past 393 1/3 regular-season innings, McCullers touts a 3.39 ERA, a 26.5% strikeout rate and a huge 55.6% grounder rate. The right-hander’s 10.3% walk rate in that time could stand to be improved upon, but his strikeout and ground-ball rates have helped mitigate what has at times been sub-par command.

The Astros lost Justin Verlander to free agency this winter and opted not to add another starter, due in large part to the organization’s considerable pitching depth. McCullers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy form a strong quintet upon which to lean, and Houston has one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Hunter Brown, ready for a big league audition.

If McCullers indeed opens the season on the injured list, his spot in the rotation would likely be filled by Brown. The 24-year-old made a brief MLB debut in 2022, pitching 20 1/3 innings with a sterling 0.89 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 68% grounder rate. That came on top of 106 innings of 2.55 ERA ball in Triple-A — his second successful run at that level.

There’s no indication just yet as to when McCullers might be sufficiently ramped up to join the big league club. His shutdown will likely last into mid-March, and the Astros will presumably have a clearer timeline once he eventually resumes throwing. For now, Brown looks poised to step into the big league rotation, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and minor league righties Shawn Dubin, J.P. France and former top prospect Forrest Whitley as the Astros’ top depth options in the event of further injury.

McCullers is entering the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract extension and is owed $66.25MM over the next four seasons, beginning with a $15.25MM salary in 2023.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Brantley, Gilbert

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Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez is dealing with some left hand soreness, with both he and manager Dusty Baker speaking to reporters today about it, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of Fox 26. Alvarez isn’t currently swinging a bat but expects to do so in the coming days.

Alvarez dealt with soreness in both hands last year but it doesn’t seem as though offseason surgery was ever seriously considered, with Baker relaying that doctors “said he didn’t need it.” Despite the seemingly persistent nature of the issue, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of concern, with Alvarez suggesting that it can be addressed with rest. It certainly didn’t seem to hamper him too much last year, as he launched 37 home runs and hit .306/.406/.613 for a wRC+ of 185, though he did go to the injured list once for the soreness in his right hand.

Everyone involved seems to be downplaying the issue for now and this all might pass in a few days. But given that Alvarez is one of the most potent sluggers in the league and the soreness seems to have been lingering for quite some time now, it will be a situation to monitor going forward.

Elsewhere on the roster, outfielder Michael Brantley is still trying to get back into shape following last year’s shoulder surgery but could spend some time at first base once he’s healthy. A report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com indicates Brantley has been getting some work at first lately, with the club exploring if he’s a viable emergency option there. Houston will have José Abreu getting the lion’s share of the work at the cold corner after he signed a three-year, $58.5MM deal this offseason, but it seems there’s a chance Brantley could give him the occasional day off.

Brantley has a small amount of first base experience in the minors, way back in 2007 and 2008, but none at the Triple-A level or in the majors. “We’ll see how it goes,” Brantley said. “At the same time, it’s a team-first approach always. I’ve always been like that. If I can help the team out in any way, I’ll be available. It’s a lot of hard work. I’m learning a lot very quickly, but it’s all been going smoothly so far.”

If the experiment proves successful and Brantley becomes a legit option there, it could provide the club with a bit more flexibility in setting its lineup. Furthermore, Brantley has had a few significant injuries in his career and is turning 36 in May, meaning there might be some wisdom in having him play a position that generally requires less running around the field. Abreu will also be in his age-36 season, so helping him get off his feet on occasion could also have benefits.

For the time being, Abreu is likely followed by David Hensley and J.J. Matijevic on the first base chart, though they have just 16 and 32 games of MLB experience, respectively. It’s always possible that the club could find someone else to jump in, such as longtime Astro Yuli Gurriel, though general manager Dana Brown recently articulated the difficulty in finding a substantial role for a veteran like Gurriel. Unless something changes on that front, it seems Brantley will take a shot at making himself a part-time option at the position.

In more long-term news, prospect Drew Gilbert is expected to be ready to go when the minor league season starts, director of player development Sara Goodrum tells Rome. Gilbert was the club’s first round draft pick last year and played ten games in the lower levels of the minors before crashing into the outfield wall in a Class-A game. He was initially diagnosed with a forearm contusion though it was later discovered that he suffered a dislocation in his right elbow, which ended his season. He’s just 22 years old and will still have to climb his way up the minor league ladder, but the fact that he’s going to start the season healthy is still encouraging news.

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