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Padres Looked Into Anthony Rizzo Trade At Deadline

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The Padres’ trade deadline explorations included some talks with the Cubs about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes as part of a reader mailbag.  It isn’t known how far negotiations might have developed between the two sides, and the Cubs eventually ended up moving Rizzo to the Yankees in another deal.

With Rizzo now set to enter the free agent market, it stands to reason that the Padres might still have interest in the veteran, especially since the power is a continued need for the team.  While Rizzo’s slugging percentage over the last two seasons is a modest .432 (a significant dropoff from his .513 SLG with the Cubs from 2014-19), the first baseman did hit 22 home runs last year.  Rizzo’s power numbers were also markedly better than those of Eric Hosmer, the Padres’ incumbent first baseman.

It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres’ inability to move Hosmer at the deadline contributed to the lack of movement on a potential Rizzo trade.  San Diego was reportedly looking into ways to move Hosmer earlier this year, and Lin figures the team will again try to unload Hosmer and/or Wil Myers to alleviate their payroll and luxury tax burdens.  Hosmer is still owed $59MM from 2022-25, with a luxury tax number of $18MM based on the annual average value of Hosmer’s original eight-year, $144MM contract.

Even if National League teams have the DH as an extra lineup spot to work with in 2022, Hosmer stands as the largest obstacle to Rizzo or any other first base addition, barring a trade.  Since Hosmer has provided barely more than replacement-level production (0.5 total fWAR) over the last four seasons, Rizzo would provide an upgrade, even if Rizzo’s own production has taken a step back over the last two seasons.

Rizzo hit .240/.343/.432 with 33 homers in 819 PA since the start of the 2020 season, good for an above-average but unspectacular 109 wRC+.  His hard-hit ball numbers have also been on the decline over the last two seasons, and his nine percent walk rate in 2021 was his lowest since 2012.  On the plus side, Rizzo has continued to be one of the game’s tougher hitters to strike out, which would naturally appeal to a Padres team that prizes contact — San Diego has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball over the last two years.

There’s certainly still enough in Rizzo’s recent track record to merit a multi-year contract in free agency, and the 32-year-old is likely to land a healthy eight-figure salary.  While Rizzo wouldn’t necessarily represent huge savings in terms of pure dollars over Hosmer’s deal, the luxury tax savings may make it particularly worthwhile for the Padres.  Rizzo also isn’t attached to any draft pick compensation, since his midseason trade makes him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

If Rizzo did happen to wind up back in San Diego, it would represent something of a full circle move after he began his MLB career with the Padres back in 2011.  Initially a Red Sox draft pick, Rizzo was dealt to the Padres as part of the Adrian Gonzalez blockbuster in December 2010, and played only one season in San Diego before the Friars shipped him to the Cubs in January 2012.  From there, Rizzo ended up becoming a Wrigleyville icon, hitting .272/.372/.489 over parts of 10 seasons in Chicago and playing a major role in the team’s 2016 World Series title.

With power bats standing out as such a need for the Padres, Rizzo might not be the only former trade target who could again emerge on the team’s radar.  San Diego also had interest in acquiring Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo before the two sluggers were respectively dealt to the Rays and Yankees, and Lin believes the Friars might look into either signing Cruz as a free agent (probably again depending on the status of the universal DH) or perhaps working out a Gallo trade with New York.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

Cubs Narrow Search For New General Manager

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Cubs president Jed Hoyer is narrowing his search for a new general manager, focusing on candidates with a strong history in player development. A decision could come after the divisional round of the playoffs. Per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney, among the final candidates are Carlos Rodriguez of the Rays, Carter Hawkins and James Harris of Cleveland, and Jeremy Zoll of the Twins. There may be other candidates, but these four at least are in the running.

Hawkins and Harris both have a hand in building Cleveland’s successful farm system and pitching development team. Hawkins began as an advanced scouting intern back in 2008, elevating to AGM before the 2017 season. Harris is Cleveland’s vice president of player development. Harris actually comes from football, having worked as Chip Kelly’s Chief of Staff when he was head coach of the Eagles.

Zoll is an assistant general manager in Minnesota, focusing on minor league operations. He is a Harvard alum who also worked with the Dodgers and Angels. Exposure to multiple franchises and differing ways of evaluating the game should be a boon to Zoll’s resume. Being a part of Minnesota’s homegrown approach to team-building is also likely viewed as an asset for a Cubs’ team looking to create a better development engine than they’ve had in recent years under Theo Epstein’s reign.

As for Rodriguez, it’s not surprising to see the Cubs explore poaching a Rays’ executive. The Rays have proven adept at building a farm system that should keep Tampa competitive for years to come. Former Rays’ executives hold top positions in Los Angeles, Boston, and Houston, and they’ve proven successful both in and outside of Tampa Bay. Rodriguez is their vice president of player development and international scouting.

For the Cubs, they are desperate to build a development team that can do a better job of sustaining success than their previous efforts. Though the Ricketts Family oversaw unprecedented success in Wrigley Field during the Joe Maddon era, those contenders fizzled out after three consecutive NLCS appearances from 2015 to 2017. Bottoming out with a 91-loss club this year, the Cubs are more-or-less starting from scratch in building a true contender.

Hoyer: Pitching Will Be Cubs’ Top Priority

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As the Cubs (and most other teams around the game) shift their focus to the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this week that improving and deepening his pitching staff will be his “No. 1 priority” this winter (links via Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). That said, Hoyer also preached the importance of utilizing the team’s considerable financial flexibility “in an intelligent way” and pointed to Rays and Giants as examples of teams who made under-the-radar moves to bring themselves into the postseason.

As one would expect, Hoyer didn’t expressly rule out the addition of any marquee free agents. However, he also pushed back against the notion of “winning” the offseason — noting that such aggressive pushes can often “be a real negative” — and instead spoke of acting in a more “opportunistic” manner. While pitching may be the primary focus of the Cubs’ offseason dealings, then, it doesn’t sound as though Hoyer is embarking on an all-out pursuit for top-of-the-market additions.

That the Cubs would prioritize pitching — particularly starting pitching — is to be expected after their starters were among the worst in baseball in nearly every category in 2021. Last offseason saw Hoyer & Co. downgrade from Yu Darvish to Zach Davies in salary-dump deal with the Padres, following that up with one-year signings of Trevor Williams and Jake Arrieta. Davies didn’t pitch well enough to garner trade interest at the deadline. Arrieta was eventually released. Williams went to the Mets alongside Javier Baez. None of the three will be back in 2022 (unless the club re-signs Davies).

The result was a rotation that ranked 23rd in the Majors in innings pitched (781 2/3), 27th in ERA (5.27), 29th in FIP (5.21) and tied for 28th in SIERA (4.74). Cubs starters had the third-lowest strikeout rate of any team in MLB and the eighth-highest walk rate — a decidedly suboptimal combination. Things were better in the bullpen, although not overwhelmingly so, and the deadline trades of Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin leave plenty of work to be done on the relief side of the equation as well.

Looking to the 2022 campaign, the Cubs’ rotation currently projects to include right-handers Kyle Hendricks, Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay. Lefty Justin Steele struggled for much of his nine-start audition down the stretch, but he closed out the year on a high note with seven shutout frames (albeit against a thin Pirates lineup). Right-hander Adrian Sampson has minor league options remaining and could get a look after making five starts. Broadly speaking, there’s ample room to add to the rotation — even if the Cubs indeed sit out the market for Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and other top starters.

The looming offseason will present Major League teams with a deep collection of free-agent starting pitchers to pursue — even beyond the aforementioned top names. The market also features established mid-rotation arms, relatively young arms in need of a bounceback, and solid but older veterans who’ll likely command relatively short-term deals. Free agency will be clouded by the ongoing collective bargaining talks between the league and the MLBPA, but whenever teams do begin to make additions, the Cubs will have no shortage of options.

It’s also plenty plausible that the Cubs could further dip into the trade market to acquire some younger arms in either the rotation or the ’pen. Willson Contreras is a year from free agency and ought to again command interest from teams in search of a short-term option behind the plate. Outfielder Ian Happ only has two years of club control remaining and closed out the season with a huge second half. Hendricks struggled through the worst season of his career in 2021 but from 2017-20 tossed 597 innings of 3.27 ERA ball. He’s signed through 2023.

Whatever route the Cubs wish to take, there’s really no target who should be out of their price range. The team has one of the game’s deepest revenue streams and only has the contracts of Hendricks ($14MM), Jason Heyward ($22MM) and David Bote ($2.5MM) on next year’s books. Contreras and Happ are the only players set to receive notable arbitration raises, and again, neither should be viewed as a lock to return. We’re only two years removed from the Cubs trotting out an Opening Day payroll north of $200MM, meaning it’d be a tough sell to the fans to both trade away the core of the last championship roster and follow it up with another offseason punctuated by modest one-year deals.

Hoyer has emphasized on multiple occasions that despite the Cubs’ recent trades and lack of spending, this reshaping of the roster won’t mirror the aggressive tanking process of their last rebuild. The extent to which that is or is not actually the case will start to become clear over the next several months.

David Ross, Cubs In “Preliminary Talks” About Extension

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TODAY: Speaking with MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and other reporters today, Hoyer confirmed that negotiations were taking place with Ross.  Bastian writes that a Ross extension would begin with the 2024 season, as the Cubs would first exercise their club option for 2023.

OCTOBER 2: The Cubs and manager David Ross have “had some preliminary talks” about a contract extension, Ross told NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer and other reporters.  Ross is taking something of a laid-back approach to the negotiations, saying he is focused on the remaining days of the Cubs’ season, and that “if I’m meant to get extended, I’ll get extended.”

As Wittenmyer notes, there has been an expectation that Ross would indeed get a new deal, following up on the original three-year pact he signed with the team in October 2019.  The 2022 season will be the final guaranteed year of that deal and the Cubs also have an option on Ross’ services for 2023.  The nature of the extension talks aren’t yet known, though it could be that the Cubs might simply lock in Ross’ 2023 season now, giving the skipper a bit more security beyond just one remaining guaranteed year.

The Cubs made the postseason in Ross’ first year, posting a 34-26 record before being eliminated by the Marlins in the first round of the expanded 2020 playoff structure.  With a 38-27 record back on June 13 of this season, the Wrigleyville crew seemed well on their way to another postseason berth before the wheels completely came off, resulting in a major fire sale of veterans and impending free agents at the trade deadline.  The Cubs enter today’s play with a dismal 69-91 record, marking their first losing season since 2014.

Between the pandemic and all of the tumult surrounding the Cubs in particular over the last two years, it is hard to gauge Ross’ share of the blame for the team’s struggles.  Ownership and the front office have seemingly been more concerned with keeping the payroll in check rather than adding big pieces around the Cubs’ former core of talent, leaving Ross with less to work with on the field.

While president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has said Chicago will be “really active in free agency” and “spend money intelligently” this winter, it remains to be seen how much of a push the Cubs will make towards contending in 2022, or if they’ll continue to reload on young talent and keep their spending limited.  As such, Ross’ role in the dugout could continue to be more focused around managing and developing younger players rather than being overtly concerned with wins and losses.

Cubs Part Ways With Coaches Anthony Iapoce, Mike Borzello

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TODAY: Iapoce indeed won’t be returning, as Hoyer told reporters today.  In another coaching change, Hoyer announced that associate pitching/catching/strategy coach Mike Borzello won’t be returning in 2022.

OCTOBER 5: The Cubs are expected to move on from hitting coach Anthony Iapoce, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided.  Iapoce has been the Northsiders major league hitting coach since October, 2018, when Joe Maddon was still manager and Theo Epstein was President of Baseball Operations. Given that neither is still with the team, it probably isn’t a big surprise that the Cubbies are moving on from Iapoce, too.

Iapoce started with the Cubs in 2013, initially in their player development department, where he oversaw their minor league hitting program.  He also served as a special assistant to then-GM (now President of Baseball Operations) Jed Hoyer and Epstein.

In light of their 71-91 record, no one will be surprised that the Cubs finished with a below average 92 wRC+ overall.  Of course, in the big scheme of things a club’s hitting coach is far down the pecking order when it comes to results on the field.  And it certainly didn’t help the team’s offensive performance that Hoyer and company chose to trade Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant prior to the July 30 deadline. But the Cubs are clearly a team in transition, and changes were coming and will no doubt continue to be made before Opening Day, 2022.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Iapoce served as the Rangers’ hitting coach from 2016 to 2018, his first big league coaching assignment.  He broke into pro ball in 1994, after being taken by the Brewers in the 33rd round of that year’s draft.  In 11 minor league seasons he reached the AAA level during parts of four campaigns, but only managed an anemic .210/.289/.266 output at that level. He then had stints as a minor league coach with the Marlins (2006 – 09) and Blue Jays (2010 – 12).

Roster Moves: Contreras, Lopez, Detmers, Guerra, Quintana

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Catching on some of the roster moves that took place before today’s slate of games…

  • The Cubs placed Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, officially ending the veteran catcher’s season.  In corresponding moves, Alfonso Rivas was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, and catcher Tyler Payne made his MLB debut today after his contract selected from Triple-A.  One of the few veterans remaining in the wake of the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, Contreras might be either a trade candidate or an extension candidate this winter, depending on the club’s next direction.  Contreras finishes the year hitting .237/.340/.438 with 21 home runs over 483 PA.
  • The Marlins activated Pablo Lopez from the 60-day injured list, as Lopez tossed 1 2/3 innings in an abbreviated start during Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies today.  It marked Lopez’s first game since July 11, as a right rotator cuff strain interrupted a very impressive season for the 25-year-old.  Lopez posted a 3.03 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over his first 101 innings, setting himself up for 2022 as yet another quality young arm in the Marlins rotation. To make room for Lopez’s return to the roster, Miami placed left-hander Sean Guenther on the 10-day IL and moved first baseman Jesus Aguilar to the 60-day IL.
  • The Angels called up left-hander Reid Detmers to start today’s contest with the Mariners, and also activated righty Junior Guerra from the 10-day IL.  Outfielder Taylor Ward heads to the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain while southpaw Jhonathan Diaz was optioned to Triple-A.
  • Jose Quintana cleared waivers and outrighted to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate.  San Francisco designated Quintana for assignment earlier this week, after the veteran left-hander posted a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants.  Quintana was claimed off waivers from the Angels at the end of August, as the Giants looked to add some lefty depth down the stretch.

Cubs Select Joe Biagini, Place Tommy Nance On Injured List

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The Cubs have placed right-hander Tommy Nance on the injury list, which seems to hint at a COVID-related absence given the lack of a reason given for Nance’s placement.  Taking Nance’s spot is righty Joe Biagini, whose contract was selected from Triple-A Iowa.

Patrick Wisdom, Austin Romine, David Bote, and Nick Martini have also been placed on Chicago’s IL (without any official cause) within the last three days, as the Cubs have apparently been hit with a coronavirus outbreak just as their season comes to an end.  No official details have been given about any of the players, so it isn’t known who might have a positive case, or if some players are being held out for contact tracing or other precautionary reasons.

Barring a quick turn-around, it appears as though the placement will end Nance’s rookie season.  The 30-year-old posted a 7.22 ERA over 28 2/3 relief innings for the Cubs, as Nance began his big league run with 12 1/3 scoreless frames before batters caught up to him in a big way.  Nance wasn’t drafted, as he began his pro career by signing with the Cubs after an indy ball stint in 2015, and then delivered a 3.29 ERA over 123 innings in Chicago’s farm system, missing the 2017 season due to injury.

If Biagini appears in one of Chicago’s final two games, it will mark the sixth consecutive season that the righty has seen at least some action at the MLB level.  Perhaps best known for his strong performance in 2016 as a Rule 5 pickup for the Blue Jays, Biagini has since shown flashes of that early, but his numbers cratered after being dealt to the Astros in 2019.  Biagini had a 10.42 ERA over 19 innings with Houston 2019-20, while also struggling with a shoulder problem last year.  The Cubs inked Biagini to a minor league deal last winter, and he has a 5.50 ERA in 91 2/3 frames with Iowa.

NL Notes: Padres, Cubs, Mets

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Fernando Tatis Jr. made no two ways about it when discussing his future as a shortstop. “(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he’s gonna have a shortstop,” he said, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). “That’s the plan so far, and I’m not planning on moving for a very long time from there.” Tatis moved to the outfield this season after being slowed by a repeated shoulder injury. The Padres are flush with infielders under team control for next season, including Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom are capable of manning short. Regardless, Tatis Jr. sounds dedicated to reclaiming his natural position.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Willson Contreras gave an honest assessment of what he thinks the Cubs need heading into next season, while acknowledging that he thought he was going to be traded in this piece from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Despite being the “last man standing” in many respects, Contreras continue to say all the right things about wanting to stay and be a leader on the next generation of Cubs’ contender. They have some money to spend this offseason, but for the first time in awhile, many teams seem to, and there are only so many “foundational” pieces available in that market.
  • The Mets biggest decision this winter will be finding the right man to lead their front office. After a number of missteps, the Mets will look to some high profile names to come in and right the ship. Of the most noteworthy, Oakland’s Billy Beane may be the most realistic target, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In the Mets favor is the fact that the Athletics are often looking to save money, and at this point in his storied career, Beane comes at a significant cost. Still, Beane has been the driving force behind a successful couple of decades of A’s baseball, and it’s hard to imagine him walking.

Cubs Select Johneshwy Fargas, Tyler Ladendorf

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The Cubs are selecting outfielder Johneshwy Fargas and infielder Tyler Ladendorf to the major league roster, the team informed reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). Outfielder Nick Martini and infielder David Bote were placed on the COVID-19 injured list in corresponding moves. Additionally, Chicago placed infielder Nico Hoerner on the 10-day IL due to right oblique tightness and recalled righty Cory Abbott to start this evening’s game.

Fargas opened this season with the Mets after signing a minor league deal last winter. He popped four extra-base hits in his first 22 MLB plate appearances but landed on the injured list after hurting his shoulder running into an outfield wall. By the time he returned, the Mets’ previously-injured outfield had returned to health and he was squeezed back off the roster. Chicago claimed him off waivers but designated him for assignment themselves just a few weeks later.

Between the two clubs, Fargas hit .277/.292/.426 over 49 trips to the dish. He’s hitting .246/.295/.395 in a bit more playing time at Triple-A. Now that he’s back on the 40-man roster, Fargas technically remains controllable for the foreseeable future. It’s possible the Cubs remove him from the roster again after this final weekend of play, though. If that were to happen, the 26-year-old would qualify for minor league free agency this offseason.

Ladendorf is back in the big leagues for the first time in five years. He picked up 68 plate appearances between 2015-16 with the A’s but hasn’t played at the highest level since. The right-handed hitter has bounced between a few Triple-A clubs and independent ball, landing with the Cubs on a minor league deal in May. Through 210 plate appearances with their top farm team in Iowa, the 33-year-old Ladendorf hit .241/.297/.424 with eight homers.

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