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Angels Sign Joe Smith

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WEDNESDAY, 10:08pm: Smith's salary will be spread in even, $5.25MM annual increments across the life of the deal, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Smith can earn an additonal $250k annually based on games finished, which essentialy means he'd see a bump if he lands in the closer role.

WEDNESDAY, 6:42pm: The Angels confirmed the signing via press release.

SUNDAY, 9:02am: Smith's deal is worth $15.75MM over three years, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).

SATURDAY, 8:44pm: The Angels are to sign reliever Joe Smith to a three-year deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets. The size of the deal is slightly more than $15MM, Heyman adds in a second tweet. 

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Smith, 29, has been with the Indians since 2009 and is a seven-year major league veteran. The righty has a lifetime 2.97 ERA and turned in a 2.29-ERA, 63-inning campaign in 2013. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto had previously indicated that Ernesto Frieri will return as the club's closer in 2014, so Smith is likely to land in a seventh- or eighth-inning role for the Halos.

The right-hander was widely regarded as one of the best setup men available this winter.  Smith drew a good amount of interest from clubs in need of a bullpen boost, including the Phillies and Rockies.  There was mutual interest between the Indians and Smith in a return, but ultimately Smith wanted more years than the Tribe was willing to offer.

Smith was ranked No. 44 by Tim Dierkes on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list. Remaining late-inning, noncloser relief options include Jesse Crain and Edward Mujica.

Smith must complete a physical next week before the deal becomes official, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).  The reliever is represented by Meister Sports Management, according to the MLBTR Agency Database.

Zach Links contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Designate Juan Gutierrez For Assignment

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The Angels announced that they have designated right-hander Juan Gutierrez for assignment.  The move will create space on the 40-man for fellow right-hander Joe Smith.

Gutierrez, 30, began the year with Kansas City before being plucked off waivers by the Halos.  The reliever pitched to a 3.38 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in KC but saw his ERA rise to 5.19 with 9.7 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 28 games for the Angels.  For his career, the veteran owns a 4.65 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over parts of five big league campaigns.

Gutierrez was eligible for arbitration this year and was projected to earn $1.1MM by MLBTR's Matt Swartz.

Rockies Talking Trade With Angels, Royals

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After making strong plays for free agents Jose Dariel Abreu, Brian McCann, and Carlos Ruiz, the Rockies are searching hard for impact bat and relief help.  The Rockies have talked with the Angels about slugger Mark Trumbo and called the Royals about their surplus of relievers, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.

Trumbo, of course, will be hard to pry away and has drawn interest from several clubs in need of a power bat.  A deal with KC might be easier to swing, writes Renck, as Colorado's main trade piece, center fielder Dexter Fowler, could be a fit in Kansas City.  Opposing execs have said for weeks that the Rockies are open to trading Fowler and they've already talked with Carlos Gonzalez about playing in center if necessary.

Royals relievers Aaron Crow and Tim Collins are reportedly "very available" via trade, and Wade Davis could be a trade candidate after the signing of free agent starter Jason Vargas.  Both Crow and Collins are headed into the first year of arbitration eligibility and MLBTRs Matt Swartz projects them to earn $1.9MM and $1MM, respectively.  Davis will make $4.8MM in 2014 and has three club options for 2015 through 2017.  Renck adds that the Rockies attempted to acquire Davis from the Rays multiple times prior to his inclusion in last winter's James Shields–Wil Myers blockbuster.

Fowler was hampered by multiple hand injuries in 2013 and he started just three games in September because of a knee injury.  Fowler, who will make $7.35MM this season, posted a .263/.369/.407 slash line in 2013.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

West Notes: A’s, Mariners, Bourjos, Samardzija, Kemp

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The Athletics have reached a new lease agreement with O.Co Coliseum that runs through December of 2015, according to an Associated Press report (via ESPN). The A's will pay $1.75MM in each year of the lease. Here are some more links pertaining to baseball's western divisions…

  • The Mariners are pursuing both Nelson Cruz and Carlos Beltran, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN. He wonders — as many do — whether or not Seattle will appeal to major free agents, as they've had difficulty luring top hitters there in previous years.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports definitively writes that the Mariners are interested in Mike Napoli (he'd received conflicting information earlier in the month). Rosenthal also notes the difficulty that the Mariners have had in luring top free agents such as Josh Hamilton and Prince Fielder but notes that Seattle could simply overpay to land their free agent targets. Two separate sources called the Mariners "desperate," and as Rosenthal notes: "Desperate teams spend money. Desperate teams are capable of just about anything." Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury are also on the team's wish list, says Rosenthal.
  • Also from Rosenthal, the Angels learned that Peter Bourjos didn't have enough value to land them the controllable young starting pitcher they coveted on the trade market, and so they elected to use him to fill another hole — third base. While many in the media have pegged the deal as a win for the Cardinals, Rosenthal writes that the common perception of Bourjos' value may not line up with the actual perception among teams.
  • Lastly from Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks know what it would take to land Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs, but their fear is that if they pounce too soon on a deal, they could miss out on a bigger value later in the offseason. The Angels aren't a fit for Samardzija, Rosenthal adds, because the Cubs want young pitching in exchange for Samardzija.
  • The Dodgers' biggest risk in weighing Matt Kemp trades isn't deciding to hang onto him and finding out he's no longer an MVP-caliber player, opines Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. Rather, the biggest risk facing the Dodgers is learning that Kemp indeed still is that player, but finding out by seeing him prove it in a Mariners, Red Sox or Rangers uniform. Brown feels it's in the Dodgers' best interest to hang onto Kemp.
  • Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets that the Angels' acquisition of Fernando Salas and Joe Smith could make Kevin Jepsen a non-tender candidate.

Breaking Down The Angels’ Joe Smith Signing

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The Angels made the largest relief signing of the offseason so far, committing $15.75MM over three years to right-handed sidearmer Joe Smith.  Any sizeable commitment to a reliever will be poorly received with sabermetric analysts, but did the Angels at least get the top setup man Smith's contract suggests?

Smith may have been paid based on his ERAs for the Indians in the past three seasons: 2.01, 2.96, and 2.29.  Fangraphs wins above replacement, which uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) in its calculation, does not credit Smith for those ERAs, giving him 2.0 WAR over the three seasons.  The main components of FIP are strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, and Smith has excelled in only one of those.  Given his strong groundball tendencies, Smith has allowed just ten home runs in 197 innings dating back to 2011.  Wins above replacement can also be calculated using runs allowed instead of FIP, and that figure credits Smith for a healthy 4.7 WAR over his last three seasons.

The Angels aren't interested in paying Smith for what he did for the Indians; he's getting $5.25MM per year from the Halos in hopes of continued sub-3.00 ERAs for 2014-16.  To see how likely that is, we typically turn to estimators like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, which predict future ERA better than ERA does.  Using Smith's 2011-13 peripheral stats, those estimators spit out figures in the 3.33-3.68 range, well above his actual 2.42 mark.  The estimators are not crediting Smith for one potential skill, though, and that is his consistently low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Smith's BABIPs the last three years were .258, .253, and .282.  His career mark is .272.  Compare that to the average reliever, who was at .291 this year.  Smith seems to be better at keeping his BABIP low than other relievers, which is why he's consistently allowed fewer than eight hits per nine innings since 2008.  Smith's career BABIP against right-handed hitters is .259, versus a more normal .298 against left-handed ones.  This makes sense: he's a right-handed sidearmer, and he is able to induce weak contact against same-handed hitters.  This apparent skill has been magnified by his usage, as Smith has faced right-handed hitters two-thirds of the time in his career.

In 2013, 54 non-closer right-handed relievers pitched at least 60 innings, including Smith.  As a group, they faced right-handed hitters about 55% of the time.  In addition to the aforementioned low BABIPs, Smith has been adept at getting right-handed hitters to hit groundballs.  In 2011, Smith began the transition away from being a full-blown right-handed specialist, but he was still shielded from lefty hitters in 2011-12, magnifying his skills against righties and aiding his ERA.  Only in 2013 did Smith graduate from right-handed specialist to general setup man: he faced right-handed hitters only 50.6% of the time.  Indians manager Terry Francona let Smith face left-handed hitters 128 times, easily the most in his career.  The promotion was overdue, as he hadn't been hit too hard by southpaws since 2010.

$5.25MM a year is setup man money.  The Angels invested in Smith after he posted a 2.29 ERA in 63 innings, truly in a setup role for the first time in his career.  However, Smith's low ERA was not due to the usual factors, a low BABIP and a high groundball rate.  His .282 BABIP was his highest since 2007, and his 49.1% groundball rate was the lowest of his career (the latter owing to his facing more lefties).  Instead, a big factor in Smith's 2013 success was his left on base percentage of 86.3%.  Among relievers with at least 60 innings, Smith ranked 14th in baseball.  Almost everyone ahead of Smith on that list struck out more than 27% of batters faced, while Smith was around average at about 21%.  There's no reason to expect Smith to be much better than the relief league average LOB% of 75% going forward.

If ERA alone doesn't convince you Smith is a top setup man, then it's hard to find a particular standout skill he displayed in 2013.  He's not a strikeout guy, he doesn't have great control (especially versus left-handed hitters), and his groundball rate and BABIP weren't anything special this year.  His ERA was low because he stranded 86% of his baserunners.  The Angels probably don't have a reason to expect that to be repeated, so they're left with a guy whose only above average skill might be inducing groundballs from right-handed hitters.  They didn't need to spend $15.75MM to find a guy who can do that, with Matt Albers and Jamey Wright also on the free agent market.  That's not to suggest Albers and Wright are as good as Smith, but with limited payroll flexibility and a need for two starting pitchers, this signing was a questionable allocation of resources for the Halos.

West Notes: Angels, Rockies, Johnson

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After the signing of reliever Joe Smith and their recent trade for David Freese and Fernando Salas, the Angels will only have about $8MM more they can spend before hitting the luxury tax threshold, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports. The Angels will likely continue to look for starting pitching, and they could trade Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar or Mark Trumbo in order to acquire pitching and clear salary. Here are more notes from the West divisions.

  • The Angels are interested in signing Bronson Arroyo and/or Bartolo Colon, but a deal is not close with either player, ESPN's Jim Bowden tweets.
  • With Brian McCann (Yankees) and Carlos Ruiz (Phillies) now off the market, the Rockies are likely through looking for a catcher, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post guesses (via Twitter). Those two, along with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, were the big names on the free agent market, and with McCann and Ruiz gone, Renck suggests that the Rockies will try to upgrade at other positions instead.
  • With Josh Johnson in the fold, the Padres have the makings of a good rotation in place, and Matt Calkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune argues that should empower them to be bold for the rest of the offseason. With Johnson, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Tyson Ross at the big-league level, and Max Fried, Matt Wisler and Burch Smith behind them, the Padres can use their pitching depth to acquire a power hitter, Calkins argues. Of course, Padres starters had the worst WAR of any team last season, and Johnson is coming off an injury-plagued year, so it's questionable how much depth they really have.
  • Padres GM Josh Byrnes tells MLB Network Radio, in fact, that Johnson hasn't even thrown since having surgery on his elbow in October. Byrnes also suggests that "if this year doesn't go well, we'd like to get a discounted look at next year" (Twitter links). Johnson is signed to a one-year deal, but the Padres will receive a $4MM option for 2015 if Johnson doesn't start at least seven games in 2014.

AL Notes: Royals, Kinsler, Napoli, Rangers, Angels

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It's a weak market for catchers now that the Yankees have taken Brian McCann off the board, an article by Bradley Woodrum of Fangraphs shows. While teams such as the Red Sox, Rockies and Rangers are still in the market for backstop help, the best remaining option, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, will bring a large platoon split to the lineup of whichever team signs him. Here's the latest from around the AL, as a busy evening on MLBTR draws to a close:

NL Central Notes: Aybar, Peralta, Beltran, Brewers

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We just wrapped up the early reactions to today's biggest news out of the National League Central, but there are some other notes from the division that are worth a look:

  • Though the Cardinals talked about acquiring Erick Aybar along with David Freese, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports via Twitter, that does not mean that a second deal is on the horizon. To the contrary, Goold says that the Cards do not expect to continue discussions about bringing Aybar in from the Angels, having realized that the Halos will demand a live, young arm even if Aybar's $25.5MM remaining salary is absorbed by a trade partner.
  • A rival executive believes that St. Louis is in on Jhonny Peralta, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, and the Freese trade makes sense in that respect. That being said, Morosi says in another tweet that he has not heard whether St. Louis would go to four years for Peralta. 
  • Meanwhile, one must wonder whether the addition of Bourjos takes the Cardinals completely out of the running to sign another of the club's recent post-season heroes: Carlos Beltran. This is my speculation, but with top prospect Oscar Taveras knocking on the door, Allen Craig warranting time in right field to give Matt Adams at-bats at first, and Jon Jay still in the fold, a return for Beltran might require another trade to make sense at this point.
  • Another trade went down today from the division, with the Brewers shipping out reliever Burke Badenhop to the Red Sox in exchange for 20-year-old lefty Luis Ortega. Baseball America breaks down the players involved, explaining that Ortega is a longshot to make the bigs and profiles as a reliever. The Brew Crew will shed an estimated $2.1MM arbitration salary in the deal, however.
  • After shedding Badenhop from the pen, Milwaukee is not hot on the trail of any new relievers, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. As MLBTR's Ed Creech explained in his offseason outlook for the Brewers, the team's pen was hardly the problem last year, and seems to be in good shape save the possible addition of another veteran.

Angels Not Planning To Replace Frieri As Closer

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The Angels will stick with Ernesto Frieri as the club's closer next year, GM Jerry Dipoto told MLBNetworkRadio host Mel Antonen (link to Twitter; hat tip to Evan Grant). There had been some preliminary links between the Halos and back-end relievers like Joe Nathan and Grant Balfour. (See, e.g., here and here.)

If the Angels are indeed uninterested in signing a closer — or, at least, in signing a former closer to occupy that role at a premium rate — it could mean additional market pressure for an already-crowded group of 9th inning men. Per MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, as reflected in his list of the top-fifty free agents, the Angels were one of a relatively small number of teams that might have been players at the top end of the relief market. If their closer job is not open, one additional closer will presumably be forced to take a lesser deal to throw in earlier innings.

Frieri is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.4MM in his first trip through arbitration. Though he managed just a 3.80 ERA in 2013, Frieri threw the last pitch in 37 victories, which significantly boosts his arbitration case.

Coaching Links: Willis, McClure, Cubs, Duncan

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It's been a busy day in the coaching ranks. Here's the latest:

  • The Mariners have fired pitching coach Carl Willis, reports Geoff Baker of the Seattle TImes. After being permitted to interview for other vacancies, but failing to land one, Willis says that Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik told him "it would be too awkward" to keep him on board. According to Baker, that statement was made in reference to the departure of manager Eric Wedge, who Willis was close with. The club also re-assigned bullpen coach Jaime Navarro to a minor league post.

Earlier Updates

  • The Phillies hired Bob McClure as their new pitching coach yesterday, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury reported. The Phils would later confirm the signing themselves. McClure, 61, served as the Royals pitching coach from 2006-11 and filled the same role with the Red Sox in 2012. "Bob brings a wealth of experience to our staff," manager Ryne Sandberg said in a statement released by the team. "We talked to many good candidates and couldn’t be more pleased to add ‘Mac’ as our pitching coach." 
  • The Cubs announced that pitching coach Chris Bosio, bullpen coach Lester Strode, catching/strategy coach Mike Borzello and staff assistant Franklin Font will all return to the coaching staff in 2014.
  • New to the Cubs staff will be bench coach Brandon Hyde, third base/infield coach Gary Jones, hitting coach Bill Mueller, assistant hitting coach Mike Brumley and quality assurance coach Jose Castro. Mueller, of course, played 11 seasons at the MLB level recently and won the 2003 AL batting title with the Red Sox.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that Dave Duncan will serve as a special assistant to GM Kevin Towers and a Major League pitching consultant. The 68-year-old is best known for his recent work as the Cardinals pitching coach from 1996-2011. He will assist the big league coaching staff's work with pitchers and catchers during Spring Training, evaluate the team's farm system and assist in evaluating draft prospects.
  • MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reports (via Twitter) that the Angels have brough back 2013 hitting coach Jim Eppard as a roving hitting coordinator and hired Terry Francona's son, Nick, as their new coordinator of MLB intelligence. Francona will work closely with Rick Eckstein to prepare scouting plans for each series, Gonzalez adds.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

 

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