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Giants Sign Justin Verlander

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January 13: The Giants made the deal official over the weekend and introduced Verlander to the media today. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, in addition to the $15MM salary, Verlander’s deal also contains awards bonuses and a full no-trade clause.

January 7: The Giants are in agreement with Justin Verlander on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $15MM.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age-42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt that he’d be back on a one-year contract somewhere. It always seemed unlikely to continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros around his first half stay with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, leading Houston to let him walk.

Verlander took the ball 17 times and turned in a 5.48 earned run average through 90 1/3 innings. He had a pair of injured list stints — first in April for shoulder inflammation, then a two-month stretch between June and August related to a neck issue. Opponents tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 over his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander conceded after the season that he had come back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.

San Francisco believes there’s more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is only one year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s prior level. That pointed to regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found plenty of success with diminished swing-and-miss stuff that year.

Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already defied expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. Even if he’s not likely to repeat that kind of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotation arm and veteran presence in a staff that lost Blake Snell.

Logan Webb will be back to take the mantle as the team’s #1 starter. Verlander and Robbie Ray slot in the middle of the rotation as high-upside veterans who are trying to rebound from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big splash was a seven-year deal to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently liked the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.

San Francisco had roughly $208MM in luxury tax obligations coming into today, as calculated by RosterResource. This will push them to around $223MM, a little less than $20MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Verlander’s deal matches the $15MM salaries which veteran starters Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Giants Designate Blake Sabol For Assignment

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The Giants announced this evening that they’ve designated catcher/outfielder Blake Sabol for assignment. The move clears a roster spot for the signing of Justin Verlander, which has now been made official.

Sabol, who just celebrated his 27th birthday earlier this week, was a seventh-round pick by the Pirates back in 2019 who was plucked from the organization by San Francisco during the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. That locked Sabol into an Opening Day roster spot with the Giants for 2023, and he performed admirably for a player with just 25 games of Triple-A experience under his belt. While splitting time between catcher and left field in 2023, Sabol hit a respectable .235/.301/.394 (91 wRC+) in 344 trips to the plate.

Once the Giants were able to option him to the minors in 2024, however, Sabol was quickly shuttled back to Triple-A and only made a brief cameo in the majors last year. He hit well in those 11 games, however, with a .313/.421/.375 slash line in 38 trips to the plate while helping cover for a Patrick Bailey during a trip to the concussion-related injured list. When in the minors, Sabol struggled offensively with just a .246/.340/.388 slash line at Triple-A that was good for a wRC+ of just 85.

That lackluster performance at Triple-A seemingly made Sabol expendable as a catching depth option in the eyes of president of baseball operations Buster Posey and the Giants’ front office. The club recently claimed catcher Sam Huff off waivers from the Rangers, which may have made Sabol’s presence on the 40-man roster even less necessary. Huff is out of minor league options and can’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers but can still provide the club with depth behind Bailey and Tom Murphy throughout Spring Training or even be carried on the roster as a third catcher.

Going forward, the Giants will have one week to either work out a trade involving Sabol or expose him to waivers. As an optionable catching depth option, it would hardly be a surprise to see a catching-needy club take the opportunity to pluck Sabol off waivers in hopes of helping him rediscover something closer to the offensive form he showed in 2023, which would make him a roughly average offensive catcher in the majors. If Sabol were to pass through waivers unclaimed, the Giants would have the option of keeping him in the fold as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 season.

Giants Sign Miguel Diaz To Minor League Deal

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The Giants signed right-hander Miguel Diaz to a minor league contract back in late December, as per Diaz’s MLB.com profile page.  The 30-year-old will presumably also be invited to the Giants’ big league Spring Training camp.

With the exception of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Diaz has been a part of every MLB season since 2017, ranging from a high of 42 innings with the Padres in 2021 to a lone inning in one game with the Astros last season.  Diaz has a 4.81 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, and 11.7% walk rate over 127 1/3 innings and 88 career big league games with the Padres, Tigers, and Astros, and he has also spent time in the minors with the Brewers and Twins organizations.

Most of Diaz’s better numbers have come more recently in his career, as he has a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 season.  Despite the strong bottom-line performance, however, some underlying metrics (such as a .222 BABIP) and some inconsistency with his control has kept Diaz from getting much of a look at the big league level.  A 4.93 ERA over 204 2/3 career minor league innings also hasn’t helped Diaz’s case for call-ups to the Show.

Diaz is out of minor league options, which makes it difficult for teams to keep him on the roster without exposing him to waivers.  In 2024, for example, the Tigers lost Diaz on a waiver claim to the Astros in April, and Diaz was then designated for assignment and chose free agency over an outright assignment before quickly re-signing with Houston on another minor league deal.  Diaz was released by the Astros entirely a few weeks later, and he completed the circle by re-signing another minor league contract with Detroit near the end of June.

San Francisco’s bullpen seems largely set, though teams routinely bring multiple veteran pitchers to camp on minors deals just in case of injury, or in case any of these unheralded arms can stand out enough to win a spot on the Opening Day roster.  As noted, Diaz’s lack of minor league options might hurt him in a camp competition, but should he clear waivers and stick around in the organization, he could act as bullpen depth for the Giants during the season.

Latest On Pete Alonso’s Market

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Approximately eight teams are involved in the market for Pete Alonso, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. However, Heyman suggests that most of those clubs are interested in a shorter-term, opt-out laden deal with the star slugger.

That aligns with recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that suggested that Alonso is likely to turn to a short-term contract. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote in a reader mailbag last week that contract length appeared to be the holdup in talks between Alonso and the Mets. Heyman frames things similarly, reporting that the Mets prefer a short-term deal.

According to Heyman, Alonso had been seeking a deal of at least six years with a guarantee in the $150-180MM range at points this offseason. It is unclear how far his camp at the Boras Corporation has moved off that ask. In any case, it doesn’t seem that any teams were willing to go those heights. That’s not especially surprising considering the way teams have devalued defensively-limited sluggers over the past decade. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson each got six-plus years and narrowly topped $160MM (albeit with deferrals in Freeman’s case), but they were each coming off superior platform seasons to Alonso.

Alonso turned 30 last month. He hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers across 695 trips to the plate. That was his lowest full-season home run total and slugging percentage. Paired with the defensive limitations as a middling defender at first base, it’s easy to understand teams’ hesitance to make a long-term commitment. At the same time, there’s clear value in a player who plays every game who hit 34 homers in what is a relative down year from a power perspective.

MLBTR predicted a five-year, $125MM contract for Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. As we noted from the beginning of the winter, though, it wasn’t difficult to foresee a situation where his market didn’t materialize as his camp envisioned. Alonso had previously declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer (albeit not while he was represented by Scott Boras). That covered his final arbitration season, in which he made $20.5MM. To come out ahead, he needed to beat $137.5MM over six free agent years. While that was evidently a goal, it looked like an uphill battle.

Alonso could end up taking the route traversed by Cody Bellinger last offseason. When his market didn’t materialize as hoped, Bellinger signed for three years and $80MM with opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. Alonso would probably expect to beat a $26.67MM average annual value if he’s going with a short-term contract. A return to the Mets still seems the best fit, especially if the team successfully waits him out into pivoting to a three-year guarantee. New York could keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season.

Teams like the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been loosely tied to Alonso in recent weeks. Los Angeles, Toronto and Boston all have in-house options at first base who could clutter the picture. San Francisco seemingly wanted to upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr., but Heyman reports that they’re reluctant to meet Alonso’s asking price.

Giants Claim Sam Huff, Designate Austin Warren

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The Giants claimed catcher Sam Huff off waivers from the Rangers and designated reliever Austin Warren for assignment in a corresponding move. Both teams have announced their end of the transaction.

Huff, 27 next week, once ranked not just as the Rangers’ top catching prospect but one of the top 100 prospects in the sport. He’s appeared in parts of four big league seasons now but has played sparingly in recent seasons. He’s appeared in 78 big league games and slashed .258/.313/.455 with 10 homers in 214 plate appearances. It’s quality production overall, but Huff has also benefited from a .353 average on balls in play while fanning in just over one-third of his big league plate appearances.

Huff barely saw the majors last season, in large part due to prolonged struggles in Triple-A. Despite prior success at the top minor league level, he slashed .246/.310/.416 in Round Rock last year. That looks solid enough relative to major league averages, particularly for catchers, but it was 21% worse than league-average (by measure of wRC+) in the hyper-charged offensive environment in the Pacific Coast League. He also struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances at Triple-A.

There are defensive question marks with Huff as well. Listed at 6’4″ and 240 pounds, he’s one of the largest catchers in the game. He’s drawn poor marks for his framing, blocking and throwing behind the plate, which perhaps isn’t a huge surprise given the rarity with which players of his size can stick behind the dish. The Rangers have also given him time at first base and designated hitter in an effort to get his bat into the lineup more often in Triple-A, but last year’s downturn in production and a lack of minor league options squeezed Huff off the roster in Texas.

The Giants have a fair bit of catching depth already, with starter Patrick Bailey and backups Tom Murphy and Blake Sabol all on the 40-man roster. Huff can’t head to Triple-A due to his lack of minor league options, but he could potentially give San Francisco a third catcher in the majors and a platoon partner for lefty-hitting first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. If not, it’s possible the Giants will eventually designate Huff themselves and attempt to pass him through waivers in an effort to retain him as non-roster depth.

Warren, 28, missed the bulk of the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned to toss 10 2/3 innings of 1.69 ERA ball down the stretch for the Giants. He agreed to a deal avoiding arbitration earlier this offseason, though per FanGraphs’ Jon Becker, he’ll be guaranteed only the $350K minor league split on that deal in the wake of this DFA.

That split could also make it easier for Warren to clear waivers, at which point the Giants could retain him as non-roster depth. In 48 2/3 innings across parts of four MLB seasons, Warren has a 3.14 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. The Giants can explore trade possibilities for the next five days but will have to place Warren on waivers if no deal comes together by that point.

Giants Declined To Include Bryce Eldridge In Tucker/Crochet Trade Offers

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The Giants were known to have had interest in Kyle Tucker before the Astros traded the outfielder to the Cubs, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly shared some details on that pursuit plus the new information that the Giants were one of the many teams who talked to the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.  San Francisco “made legitimate offers” for both Tucker and Crochet, Baggarly writes, “to the point that [the Giants] were said to feel a bit uncomfortable with the players they were willing to sacrifice.”  However, neither offer included top prospect Bryce Eldridge, and thus no trades materialized since the Astros and Sox each viewed Eldridge’s inclusion as “a prerequisite.”

Eldridge was the 16th overall pick of the 2023 draft, and he has already hit .292/.379/.514 with 29 home runs over 649 plate appearances in the minors even before he turned 20 years old last October.  This hot hitting saw Eldridge moved up the ladder to four different affiliates during the 2024 season, though it is worth noting that his numbers dropped off (in small sample sizes) as he played higher levels of minor league ball.  Eldridge had a more modest .785 OPS in 40 PA with Double-A Richmond and then a .601 OPS in 35 PA with Triple-A Sacramento.

Since he has already reached Triple-A, it isn’t out of the question that Eldridge’s MLB debut could come during the 2025 season, especially given how San Francisco was already aggressive with his early promotions.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is a free agent next winter and has been the subject of trade speculation even this offseason, so the path should soon be clear for Eldridge as the Bay Area’s first baseman of the future.  While the Giants will naturally want to see him post better numbers in the upper minors before calling him to the Show, it is easy to see the potential in the 6’7″, 223-pound first baseman.

Eldridge fits the mold of a classic left-handed slugger, and scouting reports from both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America praise his huge power and his mature approach at the plate.  Pipeline and BA each place Eldridge 35th in the most recent editions of their league-wide top-100 prospects rankings.  He is the only Giants minor leaguer in Baseball America’s rankings, while Pipeline also has James Tibbs III (the 13th overall pick of the 2024 draft) 88th on their list.

In either case, Eldridge is certainly the top prospect in a San Francisco farm system that is considered to be relatively thin, so it isn’t surprising that the Giants aren’t eager to move him in any trades.  Obviously this is a big roadblock in negotiations, since as Baggarly notes, “any team dangling a solid-average everyday player or better is going to start by asking for Eldridge — and not likely to move off that position.”

The White Sox were known to be focusing on young position players in exchange for Crochet, and indeed three of the four prospects Chicago received from the Red Sox in the trade package were position players.  As per Pipeline’s rankings of San Francisco’s farm system, the Giants are slightly deeper in position players than pitchers, though not to the level of Boston’s depth.  Likewise, the Cubs still have a wealth of position players in their minor league system even after moving Cam Smith as part of the Tucker trade.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey and GM Zack Minasian have yet to complete a trade in their limited time leading the San Francisco front office, though in the view of rival executives, Baggarly hears the Giants have been “hyperactive in attempting to generate trade dialogue.”  Since questions remain about how much ownership is willing to commit to the payroll this season, the trade market could therefore be the Giants’ best method of adding talent to the roster, though that creates another layer of complication if other teams are chiefly focused on Eldridge among the minor league prospects.  As Baggarly frames the situation, some other front offices have been trying to see if they can get Posey or Minasian to bite on an unfavorable trade out of sheer inexperience, which has “led to a few opening offers…that have amounted to non-starters and time wasters.”

In terms of other trade candidates, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details some of the players the Giants could still look to pry away from rival teams, and reports that the Giants “had some interest” in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter.  The past-tense phrasing, however, indicates that San Francisco moved on after signing Willy Adames as the new everyday shortstop, so Tyler Fitzgerald now looks to move from shortstop to second base.

Latest On Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty is the top unsigned starter as the calendar flips to 2025. While there haven’t been a ton of teams publicly linked to the right-hander, Flaherty was tied to the Orioles before their agreement with Charlie Morton this evening.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote this afternoon that the Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants and Tigers are among the teams that “remain in the mix.” Feinsand also listed the Orioles as a suitor, though his column was published before the Morton signing. It’s not clear if that’ll take them out of the running. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff suggested the O’s could be reluctant to meet Flaherty’s asking price.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that Flaherty was believed to be seeking a deal of at least five years. That’d probably be the necessary term if he’s to get into nine figures. MLBTR predicted Flaherty for five years and $115MM at the beginning of the offseason. The market has been favorable to starting pitching, but Flaherty has yet to find a deal to his liking.

He’s coming off an excellent season. Flaherty combined for a 3.17 ERA while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced between the Tigers and Dodgers. He walked fewer than 6% of opponents while getting swinging strikes at a strong 13.3% clip. It was easily his best season since his dominant finish to the 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Cardinals. Flaherty battled injuries between 2020-22 and struggled in ’23, when he allowed an ERA just below 5.00 across 29 appearances.

The inconsistency is a concern, as is Flaherty’s injury history. He’s been generally durable over the past two seasons, but the Yankees reportedly nixed a deadline trade because of concerns about his back. Flaherty went to the Dodgers instead and held up for the rest of the season. He didn’t pitch well in the postseason, but there’s no indication he wasn’t at full health during L.A.’s World Series run.

Flaherty’s fantastic regular season gives him a solid case for five years. He just turned 29 and isn’t attached to a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason. There hasn’t been a four-year free agent deal for a starting pitcher this offseason. Max Fried and Corbin Burnes got six-plus years, while Blake Snell signed for five. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi all signed three-year deals. Flaherty should beat that group and presumably expects to top the four years and $80MM which Eduardo Rodriguez received last winter.

That’s without many clearly interested teams, however. Baltimore has added Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals, suggesting they may be reluctant to make a significant pitching investment. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote at the Winter Meetings that while the Cubs had some interest in Flaherty, they were hesitant to meet an elevated asking price.

San Francisco didn’t make as strong a push as many expected for Burnes. President of baseball operations Buster Posey recently suggested to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that the club was optimistic about its young starters and searching for offensive help. The Tigers might be in a similar spot. They’ve been tied to Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander recently. Detroit GM Jeff Greenberg indicated after they signed Alex Cobb at the Winter Meetings that they weren’t likely to be big factors in the rotation market aside from a long shot push for Roki Sasaki (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Toronto has been linked to essentially every free agent but remains in the Bregman/Santander markets and could prioritize free agency’s top relievers.

Blue Jays Showed “Strong Interest” In Gleyber Torres

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The Blue Jays showed “strong interest” in second baseman Gleyber Torres early in his free agency, per a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold goes on to report that the Giants, Reds, and Guardians were among the teams to show interest in Torres before he signed with the Tigers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe previously reported that the Red Sox showed interest in the infielder but never reached the point of making a formal offer, and Petzold confirms that interest.

The Blue Jays made plenty of sense as a speculative fit for Torres early in the winter, and he was even loosely connected to them earlier this winter. After losing Matt Chapman in free agency last winter and dealing away both Justin Turner and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa over the summer, the Jays entered the winter in need of infield help. In a thin market for infielders, Torres was among the better options not expected to command a long-term, nine-figure contract. In fact, Petzold notes that Torres emphasized to his agent this winter that he wasn’t interested in anything more than a strict one-year contract, even eschewing the possibility of a two-year deal with an opt-out clause.

Petzold adds that Torres took this stance in hopes of betting on himself and landing the aforementioned nine-figure deal he was sure to be locked out of this winter following an up-and-down platform season that saw him finish with a 104 wRC+ and just 1.7 fWAR. That desire for a one-year deal likely made him an especially attractive target for a Blue Jays team that not only faces plenty of uncertainty following the 2025 season thanks to the impending free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also thanks to the club’s group of young infielders who could theoretically play their way into regular roles in the future.

It’s not clear if the Jays’ reported interest in Torres persisted even after they traded for second baseman Andrés Giménez earlier this winter. Even if it had, though, Torres apparent preference for remaining at second base likely would have created a major obstacle for the sides, likely leaving Toronto in a position where they’d need to deal shortstop Bo Bichette and move Giménez to short in order to open up the keystone for Torres. While Bichette is coming off an even more difficult season (71 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR) than Torres’s 2024 campaign, Bichette had been a consistent four-to-five win player throughout his career prior to getting bit by the injury bug last year and would be a difficult player for the Jays to part with unless they got a hefty package in return.

As for the other reported suitors for Torres’s services, the Guardians likely only became a fit for Torres after trading Giménez to Toronto. Juan Brito, Gabriel Arias, and Daniel Schneemann currently figure to split time at the keystone for Cleveland in Giménez’s absence, but a clear everyday player like Torres would be a definitive upgrade over that timeshare between youngsters. What’s more, moving on from Giménez and his hefty $106.5MM contract likely helped free up payroll that would make signing a player of Torres’s caliber possible even for the low-budget Guardians. With Torres now off the market and headed to a division rival, it’s entirely feasible that the Guardians could now pivot to another second base option available in free agency like Jorge Polanco or Whit Merrifield.

The Reds, by contrast, are a somewhat surprising suitor for Torres. The club has plenty of infield options available already, with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain currently locking up the middle infield while some combination of Noelvi Marte, Jeimer Candelario, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand handle the infield corners. Adding a pure second baseman who lacks positional versatility like Torres would’ve complicated matters, though it’s certainly possible to squeeze him in by shifting McLain over to the hot corner, utilizing Candelario at first base, and leaving Encarnacion-Strand and Marte to fight for plate appearances at DH or in a part-time role.

Given the club’s dreadful 87 wRC+ overall last year, even Torres’s diminished results from 2024 would provide the Reds with a substantial boost to their lineup. That boost may have made figuring out a way to squeeze Torres into the lineup worth doing, but the Reds appear to have already more or less maxed out their payroll and seem unlikely to have been able to match the $15MM salary Detroit offered the infielder. The Giants are another reported suitor whose interest in Torres comes with complications, particularly given the fact that the club landed shortstop Willy Adames on the eve of the Winter Meetings. It’s possible that San Francisco’s interest in Torres predated their deal with Adames, though it’s also feasible the club was willing to sign both players and push Tyler Fitzgerald into a utility role entering the season.

As for the Red Sox, the club certainly made sense as a fit for Torres given their wide open second base situation. Boston acquired Vaughn Grissom from the Braves last winter in hopes that he could lock up the position, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to something of a lost season in 2024. That leaves the position without a clear incumbent headed into 2025, with Grissom, David Hamilton, and top prospect Kristian Campbell among the internal options. Adding Torres to the mix would’ve eased the pressure on Campbell to perform immediately upon reaching the majors while providing an upgrade over Grissom and Hamilton who bats from the right side to help balance the club’s lefty-heavy lineup. Boston is also known to have some level of interest in top free agent infielder Alex Bregman, but it’s possible that their reported interest in Torres could signal a willingness to sign a hitter closer to the middle of the free agent market like Ha-Seong Kim.

Giants Considering Pete Alonso

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The Giants already made one big infield addition by signing Willy Adames, and kept Matt Chapman off the free agent market entirely by signing the third baseman to a six-year, $151MM extension back in September.  With the Giants still weighing big moves, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that “Pete Alonso is on their radar” as a significant upgrade to the first base/DH mix.

As it stands, LaMonte Wade Jr. will be getting the bulk of first base at-bats, as the left-handed hitting side of what will likely be a platoon situation.  That said, reports have suggested San Francisco is open to moving Wade, and that the Giants had some interest in signing Paul Goldschmidt before Goldschmidt landed with the Yankees.  Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is viewed as the long-term answer at first base, and with Eldridge making his Triple-A debut in 2024, a shorter-term signing like Goldschmidt made sense as a bridge at the position.

Adding Alonso would only somewhat change that direction.  If Alonso took over the everyday first base role, Wade could be shifted into the part-time DH role, and Wade is a free agent next winter so he might not remain part of the Giants’ future plans.  Eldridge played some outfield in 2023 but is largely viewed as a first baseman going forward, so he and Alonso could form a powerful first base/DH combo even if such an arrangement would lock down both positions for years to come.

There’s also a possibility that Eldridge could become a big trade chip the Giants can dangle to address other needs, or that Alonso wouldn’t necessarily be a long-term addition.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears from various executives around the league that Alonso’s next contract might involve an opt-out clause or two, thus allowing Alonso to re-enter the market potentially as early as the 2025-26 offseason.  Alonso’s agent Scott Boras has included such opt-out provisions in several of his clients’ deals in recent years, in some cases creating an extra level of flexibility for teams and for players coming off less-than-ideal platform years.

It could be argued Alonso is coming off two relative down years, as he has a solid but unspectacular 121 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season.  The first baseman slugged 80 homers and hit .229/.324/.480 in 1353 plate appearances over that span, while providing little value with his glove or on the basepaths.  Clubs are increasingly wary about committing big money to first base-only players in general, and Alonso’s increasingly homer-heavy approach raises questions about his overall offensive value.

Oracle Park may not exactly be the best ballpark for a right-handed hitting slugger to re-establish his value, though Alonso’s options may be increasingly limited.  The Yankees (Goldschmidt), Astros (Christian Walker), Diamondbacks (Josh Naylor), and Nationals (Nathaniel Lowe) have all addressed their needs at first base.  MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern recently looked at Alonso’s market and cited the Giants along with the Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays, as possible darkhorse candidates for the slugger, along with the more obvious possibility that Alonso just re-signs with the Mets.

Indeed, most of the executives who spoke with Feinsand “believe an Alonso/Mets reunion is inevitable,” even if such a deal involves opt-out clauses.  The Mets remain linked to both Alonso and Alex Bregman, leaving the team with an interesting choice of top-tier corner infielders since Mark Vientos can play first or third base depending on who is signed.  (Or, it isn’t entirely out of the question that the aggressive Mets could sign both Bregman and Alonso, with Vientos moving to DH.)  Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “a sizable gap” remains between Alonso and the Mets in their current negotiations.

Because both Adames and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, the Giants would have to surrender two more draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus pool money if they brought Alonso into the fold to join their new shortstop.  This might not necessarily be an obstacle since the Giants already gave up two picks and $1MM to sign Chapman and Blake Snell (two other qualified free agents) last offseason.  RosterResource estimates San Francisco for roughly a $167.1MM payroll and $207.5MM luxury tax number in 2025, so adding Alonso is feasible even if it remains unclear how much ownership is willing to spend on next year’s roster.

The Giants’ pursuit of Corbin Burnes signaled that the club was willing to make another splurge, though Slusser notes that they didn’t offer Burnes more than the $210MM over six years than the righty received from the Diamondbacks.  Indeed, Slusser frames the Giants’ courtship of Burnes as fairly limited, writing that “San Francisco’s pursuit never advanced much beyond initial talks at the general manager meetings…and an offer made at that point did not get things off the ground.”

President of baseball operations Buster Posey addressed the Giants’ next steps in a text to The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, with Posey writing “We believe in our young arms, and feel like they are in a position to take some big steps forward.  [We] will continue to look on the offensive side for players that give us a chance to score runs in multiple ways.”

Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

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Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

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